Join us FREE, we're FREE to use
Web's largest swingers site since 2006.
Already registered?
Login here
Join us FREE, we're FREE to use
Web's largest swingers site since 2006.
Already registered?
Login here
 | Back to forum list |
| Back to Politics |
| Jump to newest |  |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"This was quite thought-provoking when I seen it pop up a couple of weeks ago https://youtu.be/C6eXTvqdaro?si=RXGkuJuwPTF_Zgyp Not quite sure I agree the title is correct, but it still was worth noting especially from 5:20 if you're unsure what is going on" I think tonight’s report proves him wrong though, he says they’re barely making 12 billion a year, revenue for the three months to October jumped 62% to $57bn | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"This was quite thought-provoking when I seen it pop up a couple of weeks ago https://youtu.be/C6eXTvqdaro?si=RXGkuJuwPTF_Zgyp Not quite sure I agree the title is correct, but it still was worth noting especially from 5:20 if you're unsure what is going on I think tonight’s report proves him wrong though, he says they’re barely making 12 billion a year, revenue for the three months to October jumped 62% to $57bn" Do you understand what share buy-backs are? | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"This was quite thought-provoking when I seen it pop up a couple of weeks ago https://youtu.be/C6eXTvqdaro?si=RXGkuJuwPTF_Zgyp Not quite sure I agree the title is correct, but it still was worth noting especially from 5:20 if you're unsure what is going on I think tonight’s report proves him wrong though, he says they’re barely making 12 billion a year, revenue for the three months to October jumped 62% to $57bn Do you understand what share buy-backs are?" I do I’ve been involved in similar type of thing and for video this is nothing new it’s part of its culture. It’s a different type of company of the companies in what it needs to do for future generations of AI products. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"This was quite thought-provoking when I seen it pop up a couple of weeks ago https://youtu.be/C6eXTvqdaro?si=RXGkuJuwPTF_Zgyp Not quite sure I agree the title is correct, but it still was worth noting especially from 5:20 if you're unsure what is going on I think tonight’s report proves him wrong though, he says they’re barely making 12 billion a year, revenue for the three months to October jumped 62% to $57bn Do you understand what share buy-backs are? I do I’ve been involved in similar type of thing and for video this is nothing new it’s part of its culture. It’s a different type of company of the companies in what it needs to do for future generations of AI products." So the video is not wrong then, if anything it's just speculative, exactly like this thread is and generally the stock market too. I get it's not groundbreaking news really, but as I said it's just informative. Tonight’s report doesn't prove anything but you will believe what you want to believe. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"This was quite thought-provoking when I seen it pop up a couple of weeks ago https://youtu.be/C6eXTvqdaro?si=RXGkuJuwPTF_Zgyp Not quite sure I agree the title is correct, but it still was worth noting especially from 5:20 if you're unsure what is going on I think tonight’s report proves him wrong though, he says they’re barely making 12 billion a year, revenue for the three months to October jumped 62% to $57bn Do you understand what share buy-backs are? I do I’ve been involved in similar type of thing and for video this is nothing new it’s part of its culture. It’s a different type of company of the companies in what it needs to do for future generations of AI products. So the video is not wrong then, if anything it's just speculative, exactly like this thread is and generally the stock market too. I get it's not groundbreaking news really, but as I said it's just informative. Tonight’s report doesn't prove anything but you will believe what you want to believe. " It’s a quarterly earnings report for a listed company, following the blackout period, and a whole bunch of SOS controls, they are pretty standard in what they tell you about a company. it shows that it beat Wall streets expectations earnings and growthand it’s trading around 5% up after hours already. If you understand financial markets, then you will know, they are the most reliable tool for investors to use. In sharp contrast to things like the.com bubble where people ignore the numbers and followed hype. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
 | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"I don't try to time the market in the long term. But I do it in short term as I buy small amounts of stocks spread across. Considering Nvidia's great earnings results, I would expect an immediate spike tomorrow across the tech sector. Will let that one settle down and buy a little later." You are right if you are long-term investing for things like retirement or children’s education it doesn’t make sense to try and time these things, time-in not timing! Is what matters. We are lucky in the our future is secured through good investment decisions, I was thinking more in terms of trading and capitalising on a great Q3 earnings report. I’m not sure I agree with you that things will settle in the near term, I think this report will provide acceleration and push back the correction. Anyway, I placed my orders, I’m happy to continue investing in Nvidia stock . I think there are a sound Future looking company, breaking new ground both in the tech and how they organise themselves for the markets | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Will you be buying tech stock tomorrow?" I assume you don't know what "tech stock" is and rely on click bait for investing advice ? | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Will you be buying tech stock tomorrow? I assume you don't know what "tech stock" is and rely on click bait for investing advice ?" Odd. I will have to assume you don’t know much about stock markets and earnings reports. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Reasons AI companies often lose money High computational costs: The cost to run and train large language models is extremely high. For example, OpenAI spent $9 billion in 2024 and its training costs alone ($3 billion) exceeded its revenue. The cost to serve each user is a real expense, creating a negative gross profit margin for many AI products. Lack of original technology: Many AI startups are not building their own core technology. They simply use APIs from companies like OpenAI, build a simple interface around it, and call it their own product. This makes their offerings easily replicable and leaves them vulnerable if the underlying provider changes terms or competes directly. Flawed economic model: Unlike traditional software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies with high profit margins, AI companies often lose money on each customer. As a product becomes more popular, its costs increase, creating a "death spiral" where more users lead to higher expenses and the need for more funding. Market timing: Some startups are building products for a future market that isn't ready yet, such as AI lawyers or doctors, and cannot wait years for market adoption to generate revenue. No return on investment: A Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study found that 95% of companies that try AI don't see a return on their investment, and many initiatives stall with little to no measurable profit impact. Not all AI companies are created equal: The AI industry is creating an illusion of success, but many AI startups are unsustainable and will likely fail or be acquired for their engineers, not their products." Now, I'm not saying it's all doom and gloom but people should be thinking about business models that can generate a profit at least in the foreseeable future. Companies like Nvidia are probably going to be a good investment for a couple more years as they are effectively selling shovels rather than digging for gold. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"For fun here's AI explaining why AI companies don't make money..." Most companies lose money in the early years as they struggle to find a place in the market, and try to grow to a level where they can start making a profit. But as you say, AI is even more prone to this, what with the enormous startup costs and the need for a massive customer base to gain enough revenue. There are going to be a lot of badly burned investors when the bubble finally does burst. "Companies like Nvidia are probably going to be a good investment for a couple more years as they are effectively selling shovels rather than digging for gold." I think Nvidia are already over-valued based on the amount of chips people think that the AI revolution will need. When AI is discovered to be a massive failure, Nvidia's stock price will plummet. As you say, they're a good bet at the moment, but I wouldn't hold them for long. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Most companies lose money in the early years as they struggle to find a place in the market, and try to grow to a level where they can start making a profit. But as you say, AI is even more prone to this, what with the enormous startup costs and the need for a massive customer base to gain enough revenue. There are going to be a lot of badly burned investors when the bubble finally does burst." Indeed and large numbers of businesses fail. But at least most startups have a model where if the number of customers increases then their income will increase faster than their costs. Some AI companies make less profit the more customers they have. It's a totally insane business model. "I think Nvidia are already over-valued based on the amount of chips people think that the AI revolution will need. When AI is discovered to be a massive failure, Nvidia's stock price will plummet. As you say, they're a good bet at the moment, but I wouldn't hold them for long." Agreed and it's difficult to project the exit point as a small dip might not be the end of the road. Although we could both be wrong and some unexpected breakthrough might turn up. I think it's this possibility (however unlikely) that drives some investors to behave in ways that look irrational in traditional terms. More generally, I think the big question for AI investors is "how much would you pay to use AI?". For most users it's a free toy. But for AI companies to succeed lots of people have to pay more to consume AI than the AI costs to produce. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Indeed and large numbers of businesses fail. But at least most startups have a model where if the number of customers increases then their income will increase faster than their costs. Some AI companies make less profit the more customers they have. It's a totally insane business model." It seems to me that quite a few AI start-ups have a business model of "hype AI, get lots of investment capital, keep drawing the salary until it all inevitably collapses". It doesn't seem credible to me that all of these 'company directors' can honestly believe that they will eventually make any money. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Indeed and large numbers of businesses fail. But at least most startups have a model where if the number of customers increases then their income will increase faster than their costs. Some AI companies make less profit the more customers they have. It's a totally insane business model. It seems to me that quite a few AI start-ups have a business model of "hype AI, get lots of investment capital, keep drawing the salary until it all inevitably collapses". It doesn't seem credible to me that all of these 'company directors' can honestly believe that they will eventually make any money." I saw a penny stock go up by 15% in a day just because they told that they will be presenting in some Nvidia conference 
No one even bothered to check what they were going to present. I think lots of individual retail investors are in stock market today that the prices are going up and down irrespective of the fundamentals of the stock. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"The dot com bubble was a stock market bubble that crashed. But the internet did change the world drastically. Some companies came out to be winners after that crash. I expect a similar thing to happen with the AI bubble too. Over the past few months, any company that announced that they are doing some AI related work saw their stock prices go up even though there was no evidence of their fundamentals changing. AI will definitely change how we work. Lots of desk jobs which were done by 3 people will only need 1 person. It will also have some impact in our personal lives. There will be a small handful of companies which come out as winners out of the bubble while the stocks of all the other companies will crash. It's hard to predict now who those winners are going to be. Just a couple of months back, DeepSeek became popular and all the other big tech stocks went down for a few days. Now, no one talks about DeepSeek." There are some key differences between the.com bubble and the AI bubble. It’s probably worth you researching these, lots of lessons learned and controls put in place to stop it happening again,and people now follow the numbers more , these companies are actually making a lot of money, growing from their earnings rather than speculative investment I.e investors following hype. If more people based their investment decisions on solid audited earnings reports, follow the real numbers rather than making decisions based on fear, greed, hype, there would be far less market corrections. What you are talking about how AI will change how people work it’s true but you have to see beyond that, it’s bringing in something called the democratisation of skills, which benefits people at the bottom ish & the top but not in the middle or the very bottom if you read books like the sovereign individual by Snr. Reese Mogg this was prophesied many many years ago. But none of this really matters for the sake of investing as Warren Buffett proved many years ago the market’s nature is to grow, as long as you don’t try and beat it you will win | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Most analysts agree that there is something of a bubble, which will probably burst, but Nvidia is well-placed with a diversified offering - AI is huge for them and their recent explosive growth, but the rest of their business is still healthy." An interesting post but I think Nvidia are a fabless company that relies on TSMC. So if we are looking at the core tech then what's happening with TSMC might be more interesting than what's happening with Nvidia. I think getting good yields below 3 nm is turning out to be a big problem so I'm not sure how much road there is left. Maybe 1.4 nm will be the end of what is doable. Quantum computing is an interesting possibiity but I don't think we'll see much penetration in the next decade and even then they'll likely be hybrid systems. Anyone want to guess when your phone will use quantum computing? I'd bet that might be 20 years or further away. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Old enough to remember the 2002 dot com crash. Aberdeen Tech £7k isa went up to £19k within a year. Then the Nasdaq dropped from over 4k to 1.8k, 23 years later it’s back at 22.5 These types of investments are not for widows and Ophans. " Markets have been correcting themselves for as long as there have been markets, they have survived famines, world wars, nuclear threats, oil crisis, & more recently global pandemics but nothing l can stop them growing and the past never predicts the future | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"It seems to me that quite a few AI start-ups have a business model of "hype AI, get lots of investment capital, keep drawing the salary until it all inevitably collapses". It doesn't seem credible to me that all of these 'company directors' can honestly believe that they will eventually make any money." I totally agree and it's important for investors to be aware of this bad practice. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Most analysts agree that there is something of a bubble, which will probably burst, but Nvidia is well-placed with a diversified offering - AI is huge for them and their recent explosive growth, but the rest of their business is still healthy. An interesting post but I think Nvidia are a fabless company that relies on TSMC. So if we are looking at the core tech then what's happening with TSMC might be more interesting than what's happening with Nvidia. I think getting good yields below 3 nm is turning out to be a big problem so I'm not sure how much road there is left. Maybe 1.4 nm will be the end of what is doable. Quantum computing is an interesting possibiity but I don't think we'll see much penetration in the next decade and even then they'll likely be hybrid systems. Anyone want to guess when your phone will use quantum computing? I'd bet that might be 20 years or further away. " I think quantum computing will suffer the same problems as Blockchain ledgers. Principal our game changing but you need the visionaries to come up with the application applications to exploit the technology. We are also currently nowhere near the operating frontier of current technology which makes next generation / step change technology far less attractive for investment. Remember Blockchain ledgers they were gonna rubber life revolution eyes banking in the third world, and get rid of fraud in land registries in Asia and Africa. Turns out no one had much appetite to make it happen and so other than a a few small scale isolated projects and dodgy looking bitcoin they never really came to much. There’s been technology available on phones for a long time that can bypass 4G and 5G towers and go straight to satellite but they’ve still not solved the elephant in the room - power. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"It seems to me that quite a few AI start-ups have a business model of "hype AI, get lots of investment capital, keep drawing the salary until it all inevitably collapses". It doesn't seem credible to me that all of these 'company directors' can honestly believe that they will eventually make any money. I totally agree and it's important for investors to be aware of this bad practice. " Luckily, the serious ones are, if you join the WebEx for the earnings reports just listen to some of the questions being asked by the biggest investors These people are not stupid. If you can’t join the WebEx directly, you can get hold of the transcripts. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Understanding the return on the AI investment is key, take away the notion of users paying for it in a subscription type offering that is not an AI model that will succeed. The return comes from a global sales platform that challenges Google and increases the $350 billion share of the cake significantly enough to thrive. That is the prize, owning the global sales front door. This is why there is big investment in AI, if the right platform is backed the ROI will be huge." I agree that a subscription (or pay per use) model is unlikely to make AI profitable using current technology, but am struggling to understand your scenario. Are you saying that a single company will use AI to gain control of global sales? I've probably not understood what you mean so I'd be interested to hear more of your thoughts. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"We could be 10 - 20 years away from the next mainstream breakthrough, so AI is going to be reliant on the here and now tech for a while longer in my opinion. Understanding the return on the AI investment is key, take away the notion of users paying for it in a subscription type offering that is not an AI model that will succeed. The return comes from a global sales platform that challenges Google and increases the $350 billion share of the cake significantly enough to thrive. That is the prize, owning the global sales front door. This is why there is big investment in AI, if the right platform is backed the ROI will be huge. The bubble bursting will be investor realisation of backing the wrong platform, that will reduce the numbers until we are left with the main players. " Old enough to remember bookshops worried that kindle was gonna take business away, now there are more paper books created and sold than ever in history. Then taxi drivers, restaurants…. I can also remember investors laughing when someone suggested flying internationally out of Stanstead and Luton. The Cake always gets bigger. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Understanding the return on the AI investment is key, take away the notion of users paying for it in a subscription type offering that is not an AI model that will succeed. The return comes from a global sales platform that challenges Google and increases the $350 billion share of the cake significantly enough to thrive. That is the prize, owning the global sales front door. This is why there is big investment in AI, if the right platform is backed the ROI will be huge. I agree that a subscription (or pay per use) model is unlikely to make AI profitable using current technology, but am struggling to understand your scenario. Are you saying that a single company will use AI to gain control of global sales? I've probably not understood what you mean so I'd be interested to hear more of your thoughts. " unlikely to be 1 single company. AI is a stack, internet sales, and owning the front door as Google do today is one layer, cloud infrastructure and computing is another and they are probably the 2 most valuable layers. Simply speaking AI is the next computing platform. That is why the investment is so big. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"We could be 10 - 20 years away from the next mainstream breakthrough, so AI is going to be reliant on the here and now tech for a while longer in my opinion. Understanding the return on the AI investment is key, take away the notion of users paying for it in a subscription type offering that is not an AI model that will succeed. The return comes from a global sales platform that challenges Google and increases the $350 billion share of the cake significantly enough to thrive. That is the prize, owning the global sales front door. This is why there is big investment in AI, if the right platform is backed the ROI will be huge. The bubble bursting will be investor realisation of backing the wrong platform, that will reduce the numbers until we are left with the main players. Old enough to remember bookshops worried that kindle was gonna take business away, now there are more paper books created and sold than ever in history. Then taxi drivers, restaurants…. I can also remember investors laughing when someone suggested flying internationally out of Stanstead and Luton. The Cake always gets bigger. " I'm old enough to remember the start of the Internet, the hype leading up to the dot com bubble bursting, rush to cloud (not that it's burst, but definitely organisations are repatriating some of their apps and services). I'm chatting to loads of customers about securing their models (and the public models). A bubble bursting is often actually good for the industry. It gets rid of some of the hype, sifts out the more "chancer" type of vendor and brings some more realistic expectations! | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"AI is a stack, internet sales, and owning the front door as Google do today is one layer, cloud infrastructure and computing is another and they are probably the 2 most valuable layers. Simply speaking AI is the next computing platform. That is why the investment is so big." Sorry, none of that makes any sense to me. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"We could be 10 - 20 years away from the next mainstream breakthrough, so AI is going to be reliant on the here and now tech for a while longer in my opinion. Understanding the return on the AI investment is key, take away the notion of users paying for it in a subscription type offering that is not an AI model that will succeed. The return comes from a global sales platform that challenges Google and increases the $350 billion share of the cake significantly enough to thrive. That is the prize, owning the global sales front door. This is why there is big investment in AI, if the right platform is backed the ROI will be huge. The bubble bursting will be investor realisation of backing the wrong platform, that will reduce the numbers until we are left with the main players. Old enough to remember bookshops worried that kindle was gonna take business away, now there are more paper books created and sold than ever in history. Then taxi drivers, restaurants…. I can also remember investors laughing when someone suggested flying internationally out of Stanstead and Luton. The Cake always gets bigger. " The cake will get bigger, but we need a bigger cake tin and better ingredients to begin to make the cake. That is the investment opportunity  | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"AI is a stack, internet sales, and owning the front door as Google do today is one layer, cloud infrastructure and computing is another and they are probably the 2 most valuable layers. Simply speaking AI is the next computing platform. That is why the investment is so big. Sorry, none of that makes any sense to me. " If you ask what the basic application of AI is, the crude answer is that it gives people a smarter way to search for information. Once you move that into ROI, it becomes clear, whoever controls the way people search for information also controls how people find products and services. That’s where the $350billion per year is. AI is the next step in that evolution. The point of the smart LLM responses is to build trust, provide clear answers to complex questions in a way todays search engines can’t. The trust level will make AI the most powerful sales tool on the planet. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
" There are some key differences between the.com bubble and the AI bubble. It’s probably worth you researching these, lots of lessons learned and controls put in place to stop it happening again,and people now follow the numbers more , these companies are actually making a lot of money, growing from their earnings rather than speculative investment I.e investors following hype. " These controls apply for Banks and other institutions doing investments on behalf of people. More and more people are investing themselves using apps which are easy to use. The GameStop short squeeze is an example of that. " What you are talking about how AI will change how people work it’s true but you have to see beyond that, it’s bringing in something called the democratisation of skills, which benefits people at the bottom ish & the top but not in the middle or the very bottom if you read books like the sovereign individual by Snr. Reese Mogg this was prophesied many many years ago. " I agree with this. But the first stage of this is corporations using AI to replace human skills. Eventually it will create a society where these skills are democratised among people. Amazon recently laid off 14,000 corporate workers(not warehouse) and announced another 16,000 people will be laid off in the coming days. They claim that AI allows them to do more work with less number of people. Some workplaces I know of have stopped hiring a few months back. They aren't backfilling roles when people leave because they believe that the existing employees can handle that work by using AI. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Nvidia results way ahead of expectations, AI here to stay, good luck to those high profile investors who shorted the stock. " The guy is bit of a dick. He also closed his fund after being consistently wrong on other things. Just bear in mind, he wouldn’t have lost any of his own money…. They will always be people who think they can beat the market, and there will always be people stupid & greedy enough to give them their money. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Nvidia results way ahead of expectations, AI here to stay, good luck to those high profile investors who shorted the stock. The guy is bit of a dick. He also closed his fund after being consistently wrong on other things. Just bear in mind, he wouldn’t have lost any of his own money…. They will always be people who think they can beat the market, and there will always be people stupid & greedy enough to give them their money." Nice to see him get a bloody nose! | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Will you be buying tech stock tomorrow?" I don't buy stock cause I don't get it well enough, also I'm fairly poor. But I'm curious about AI and bubbles, if the bubble were to burst would that reduce the amount of firms thinking they can reduce staff numbers through AI. Or is finance behind tech way more influential than that? | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
"Will you be buying tech stock tomorrow? I don't buy stock cause I don't get it well enough, also I'm fairly poor. But I'm curious about AI and bubbles, if the bubble were to burst would that reduce the amount of firms thinking they can reduce staff numbers through AI. Or is finance behind tech way more influential than that? " The term AI bubble bursting, is a financial term in that there has been over valuation and when the value drops there are going to be a lot of people out of pocket. AI as a tool / service will not disappear because of that. | |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| |||
| Reply privately | Reply in forum | Reply +quote |
| Post new Message to Thread |
| back to top |  |
