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"Today’s Guardian piece, ‘Labour has one mission only. It must focus on saving Britain from Farage’ Labour clearly shitting themselves at the prospect of a Reform win in four years time. Small boats arrivals this year higher than under the tories. Two ministers resigned for corruption and fraud. Attacks on pensioners, farmers, disabled and allotment holders. Yesterday two Labour MP’s vocal on wanting reversal of the Palestine Action ban, while starmers attempts to shut up Kneecap at Glastonbury failed. Millions of flags put up all over the country in recent weeks in protest at two tier Kier, and Banksy adding weight. Labour peers have apparently told Starmer not to make any more mistakes. And tax raising autumn statement to come and a cabinet reshuffle. Will Starmer turn all this around ? " I don't think he will turn it around but I suppose it's not impossible. Four years is a long time and that plays into his hand in a Micawberish sort of way. I think he is praying that something will turn up. If he does manage to get a grip on the small boat problem that would blunt Reform and he has enough seats to be able to lose a good few and stay in power. Personally I don't think he (and his party) will have the will to do it and will ultimately fail. From a Reform point of view, they have the same four year problem but the other way around. They are riding high at the moment but could always implode and that is what I think Starmer and Co are waiting/praying for. Unless something does turn up then the only way I can see Farage being stopped would be from a resurgent Tory party. But I can't really see that either. | |||
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"Polly Toynbee's rhetorical style has always been slightly too hyperbolic for my taste but the substance of her opinion piece is faultless and backed up by data from John Curtice and British Social Attitudes survey. Labour must stop chasing after Reform voters. They should leave that folly to the Tories and wave goodbye to them as they slide into oblivion. Labour needs to stay calm, hold to the centre ground and build a consensus with the LibDems, Greens and disaffected One Nation Tories. " Labour needs to "stay" calm LOL. They've been in full Corporal Jones mode since Starmer walked into Downing St. | |||
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"Labour needs to "stay" calm LOL. They've been in full Corporal Jones mode since Starmer walked into Downing St." By stay calm I mean not reacting further to the fact that 1/8 of former Labour supporters now back Reform (compared with 1/2 of former Tory supporters) as those people aren't coming back no matter what Labour does. Toynbee reports the professor of political science at Manchester Uni Rob Ford's view that Starmer's "island of strangers" speech backfired badly. So Starmer may have learnt the lesson already that tracking further right will just lose more votes. I agree with much of what you said in your previous post but I put the chances of Reform forming the next government much lower than you. Tactical voting will play a big part in keeping Reform at bay and as Farage is so closely tied to MAGA I think any mess made by Trump in the next few years will be a weight around Farage's ankles. | |||
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"Today’s Guardian piece, ‘Labour has one mission only. It must focus on saving Britain from Farage’ Labour clearly shitting themselves at the prospect of a Reform win in four years time. Small boats arrivals this year higher than under the tories. Two ministers resigned for corruption and fraud. Attacks on pensioners, farmers, disabled and allotment holders. Yesterday two Labour MP’s vocal on wanting reversal of the Palestine Action ban, while starmers attempts to shut up Kneecap at Glastonbury failed. Millions of flags put up all over the country in recent weeks in protest at two tier Kier, and Banksy adding weight. Labour peers have apparently told Starmer not to make any more mistakes. And tax raising autumn statement to come and a cabinet reshuffle. Will Starmer turn all this around ? " starmer couldn’t turn a bike around. he is an average human rights lawyer. he isnt a politician. he is massively out of his depth with a totally useless cabinet. labour have found out that 6th political opinion doesn’t work in reality. | |||
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"Labour needs to "stay" calm LOL. They've been in full Corporal Jones mode since Starmer walked into Downing St. By stay calm I mean not reacting further to the fact that 1/8 of former Labour supporters now back Reform (compared with 1/2 of former Tory supporters) as those people aren't coming back no matter what Labour does. Toynbee reports the professor of political science at Manchester Uni Rob Ford's view that Starmer's "island of strangers" speech backfired badly. So Starmer may have learnt the lesson already that tracking further right will just lose more votes. I agree with much of what you said in your previous post but I put the chances of Reform forming the next government much lower than you. Tactical voting will play a big part in keeping Reform at bay and as Farage is so closely tied to MAGA I think any mess made by Trump in the next few years will be a weight around Farage's ankles." I'm sure some tactical voting will come into play. Labour voters will vote Lib Dem in some seats to keep out the Tory's as will some Tory's to keep out Labour. But I don't see many red wall Tory's doing that. As it stands they are far more likely to vote Reform to keep Labour out. Problem is that in many (most) seats Reform are an unknown quantity. How do you vote tactically to keep out someone who may fall flat on his/her face anyway? It's much more complicated now than under the old 3 party regime. A few Greens may vote Labour here and there and vice versa and maybe a few Lib Dems will do the same. But I don't see it on any scale that will make much difference. Turnout will have a much bigger impact and at the moment Reform voters seem to be a lot more motivated than Labour/Tory. As I said in my other post, 4 years is a long time. We will just have to wait and see how it pans out. | |||
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"I'm sure some tactical voting will come into play. Labour voters will vote Lib Dem in some seats to keep out the Tory's as will some Tory's to keep out Labour. But I don't see many red wall Tory's doing that. As it stands they are far more likely to vote Reform to keep Labour out. Problem is that in many (most) seats Reform are an unknown quantity. How do you vote tactically to keep out someone who may fall flat on his/her face anyway? It's much more complicated now than under the old 3 party regime. A few Greens may vote Labour here and there and vice versa and maybe a few Lib Dems will do the same. But I don't see it on any scale that will make much difference. Turnout will have a much bigger impact and at the moment Reform voters seem to be a lot more motivated than Labour/Tory. As I said in my other post, 4 years is a long time. We will just have to wait and see how it pans out." There'll be fine-grain local voting intention polling data available in the run up to a GE so people will be able judge tactical voting within a certain margin of error. I'm not sure there will be many Tory voters left in three or four years time given trends. This might change if/when they dump Badenoch but I doubt it as there aren't any strong candidates to replace her. If it's Jenrick then we could see some cooperation between Tory and Reform but the Tories would be the weaker partner in this and I can see some Tory voters not wanting their vote to be a proxy vote for Reform Let's look at the latest Voting Intention polling from YouGov 31 Aug - 1 Sep Reform 29 Lab 20 Con 17 LibDem 15 Green 10 Other 5 SNP 3 PC 1 If everyone voted tactically on a purely left/right basis we'd be looking at... Reform + Con = 46% Lab + LibDem + Green + SNP + PC = 49% Not exactly a landslide scenario for Reform. As we get closer to the GE it will be interesting to see how things change. | |||
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"Polly Toynbee's rhetorical style has always been slightly too hyperbolic for my taste but the substance of her opinion piece is faultless and backed up by data from John Curtice and British Social Attitudes survey. Labour must stop chasing after Reform voters. They should leave that folly to the Tories and wave goodbye to them as they slide into oblivion. Labour needs to stay calm, hold to the centre ground and build a consensus with the LibDems, Greens and disaffected One Nation Tories. " How can they hold something they don't have? They are not on the centre ground, they are to the right of this (and that is one of their major problems). The bulk of public opinion is actually to the left of the centre, privatisation, NHS, etc. but Labour have removed the majority of members/MPs sympathetic to this viewpoint. They have a hill to climb, and funnily enough Toynbee's was one of the voices that drove them in this direction in the first place! It strikes me that the Green's new leadership do not want to fight for the centre, but to move to the left and offer something different to all those you mention. Much more likely to ally with "Your Party". | |||
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"Can’t claim accuracy of the numbers but large shifts in party memberships Labour Party membership 333,325 (200,000 reduction since 2019) Reform 243,982 (since launch in nov 2018) Tory 123,000. (Down from 170,000) Libdems. 81,000" You need to add Advance to that - launched 2 months ago and 30,000 members. | |||
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"Absolutely everyone should be shitting themselves and the thought of a Reform win. "  | |||
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"Polly Toynbee's rhetorical style has always been slightly too hyperbolic for my taste but the substance of her opinion piece is faultless and backed up by data from John Curtice and British Social Attitudes survey. Labour must stop chasing after Reform voters. They should leave that folly to the Tories and wave goodbye to them as they slide into oblivion. Labour needs to stay calm, hold to the centre ground and build a consensus with the LibDems, Greens and disaffected One Nation Tories. How can they hold something they don't have? They are not on the centre ground, they are to the right of this (and that is one of their major problems). The bulk of public opinion is actually to the left of the centre, privatisation, NHS, etc. but Labour have removed the majority of members/MPs sympathetic to this viewpoint. They have a hill to climb, and funnily enough Toynbee's was one of the voices that drove them in this direction in the first place! It strikes me that the Green's new leadership do not want to fight for the centre, but to move to the left and offer something different to all those you mention. Much more likely to ally with "Your Party"." The right of centre? Run your logic past me! I will start off why I think you are wrong and they are left of centre: The pay off to the unions, VAT on private education, inheritance tax on farmers, claims of total protection for working people (that is someone who depends on their next pay packet). Increased NI on business, nationalisation of the railway, workers rights that remove all protections to business if they have been duped at the interview stage. Great British Energy state owned, tax the wealthy, removal of non-dom status. And the big one, not a clue when it comes to the economy. | |||
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Surely that will appease the true patriots 
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"I don't think Labour will last another four years" By what mechanism do you think this could happen? | |||
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"Today’s Guardian piece, ‘Labour has one mission only. It must focus on saving Britain from Farage’ Labour clearly shitting themselves at the prospect of a Reform win in four years time. Small boats arrivals this year higher than under the tories. Two ministers resigned for corruption and fraud. Attacks on pensioners, farmers, disabled and allotment holders. Yesterday two Labour MP’s vocal on wanting reversal of the Palestine Action ban, while starmers attempts to shut up Kneecap at Glastonbury failed. Millions of flags put up all over the country in recent weeks in protest at two tier Kier, and Banksy adding weight. Labour peers have apparently told Starmer not to make any more mistakes. And tax raising autumn statement to come and a cabinet reshuffle. Will Starmer turn all this around ? " No he won’t. It’s always been my view that this Labour government will leave office as the most hated in British history. It’s tracking way ahead of expectations. | |||
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"Today’s Guardian piece, ‘Labour has one mission only. It must focus on saving Britain from Farage’ Labour clearly shitting themselves at the prospect of a Reform win in four years time. Small boats arrivals this year higher than under the tories. Two ministers resigned for corruption and fraud. Attacks on pensioners, farmers, disabled and allotment holders. Yesterday two Labour MP’s vocal on wanting reversal of the Palestine Action ban, while starmers attempts to shut up Kneecap at Glastonbury failed. Millions of flags put up all over the country in recent weeks in protest at two tier Kier, and Banksy adding weight. Labour peers have apparently told Starmer not to make any more mistakes. And tax raising autumn statement to come and a cabinet reshuffle. Will Starmer turn all this around ? " Well it's in Labours hands still to sort themselves out and they have the time to do just that. Also not sure a party has ever gone from just a few MP's to winning a GE at the next time if asking. Labour spent many years telling people that they can do much better than others if given the chance to govern, but so far their is little to no evidence of that. The big victory would be solving the small boats issue as this seems core to Reform's rise. However if they fail, like the previous government then that could be very dangerous as voters may feel like selecting an alternative, having already tried both main parties. | |||
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"The bulk of public opinion is actually to the left of the centre ..." I'm always astonished at the number of people that claim this, given that we've had right-of-centre parties in power for over 40 years now. If the bulk of the public is left-of-centre, why don't they vote that way? | |||
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"Today’s Guardian piece, ‘Labour has one mission only. It must focus on saving Britain from Farage’ Labour clearly shitting themselves at the prospect of a Reform win in four years time. Small boats arrivals this year higher than under the tories. Two ministers resigned for corruption and fraud. Attacks on pensioners, farmers, disabled and allotment holders. Yesterday two Labour MP’s vocal on wanting reversal of the Palestine Action ban, while starmers attempts to shut up Kneecap at Glastonbury failed. Millions of flags put up all over the country in recent weeks in protest at two tier Kier, and Banksy adding weight. Labour peers have apparently told Starmer not to make any more mistakes. And tax raising autumn statement to come and a cabinet reshuffle. Will Starmer turn all this around ? " And please, what would the Tories do differently to " turn things around" they weren't doing a great job with the boat people other than wasting many millions on hair brain schemes ,Bibby Stockholm, Rwanda..... And yeah we were all so much better off during their term, no energy increases,no massive fuel prices increase...... Oh wait nope that all happened. You'll making out that it was all sunshine and happiness then as soon as labour took charge it's been constant rain and sadness. I'm afraid the black cloud's of doom and gloom started many years ago. And don't forget all these rich capitalist bankers caused the credit crunch probably 90 % blue . So honestly the mess we are in isn't just Labours fault it's governmental failures going back decades. Greed greed greed, want want want. We are a greedy stupid nation who fails to understand we are not the centre of the world, just a tiny little overcrowded island about to implode with ignorance and division. | |||
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"Today’s Guardian piece, ‘Labour has one mission only. It must focus on saving Britain from Farage’ Labour clearly shitting themselves at the prospect of a Reform win in four years time. Small boats arrivals this year higher than under the tories. Two ministers resigned for corruption and fraud. Attacks on pensioners, farmers, disabled and allotment holders. Yesterday two Labour MP’s vocal on wanting reversal of the Palestine Action ban, while starmers attempts to shut up Kneecap at Glastonbury failed. Millions of flags put up all over the country in recent weeks in protest at two tier Kier, and Banksy adding weight. Labour peers have apparently told Starmer not to make any more mistakes. And tax raising autumn statement to come and a cabinet reshuffle. Will Starmer turn all this around ? And please, what would the Tories do differently to " turn things around" they weren't doing a great job with the boat people other than wasting many millions on hair brain schemes ,Bibby Stockholm, Rwanda..... And yeah we were all so much better off during their term, no energy increases,no massive fuel prices Oh wait nope that all happened. You'll making out that it was all increase......sunshine and happiness then as soon as labour took charge it's been constant rain and sadness. I'm afraid the black cloud's of doom and gloom started many years ago. And don't forget all these rich capitalist bankers caused the credit crunch probably 90 % blue . So honestly the mess we are in isn't just Labours fault it's governmental failures going back decades. Greed greed greed, want want want. We are a greedy stupid nation who fails to understand we are not the centre of the world, just a tiny little overcrowded island about to implode with ignorance and division." Probably the best summary as to why people are ditching the main party's for Reform. | |||
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"Today’s Guardian piece, ‘Labour has one mission only. It must focus on saving Britain from Farage’ Labour clearly shitting themselves at the prospect of a Reform win in four years time. Small boats arrivals this year higher than under the tories. Two ministers resigned for corruption and fraud. Attacks on pensioners, farmers, disabled and allotment holders. Yesterday two Labour MP’s vocal on wanting reversal of the Palestine Action ban, while starmers attempts to shut up Kneecap at Glastonbury failed. Millions of flags put up all over the country in recent weeks in protest at two tier Kier, and Banksy adding weight. Labour peers have apparently told Starmer not to make any more mistakes. And tax raising autumn statement to come and a cabinet reshuffle. Will Starmer turn all this around ? And please, what would the Tories do differently to " turn things around" they weren't doing a great job with the boat people other than wasting many millions on hair brain schemes ,Bibby Stockholm, Rwanda..... And yeah we were all so much better off during their term, no energy increases,no massive fuel prices increase...... Oh wait nope that all happened. You'll making out that it was all sunshine and happiness then as soon as labour took charge it's been constant rain and sadness. I'm afraid the black cloud's of doom and gloom started many years ago. And don't forget all these rich capitalist bankers caused the credit crunch probably 90 % blue . So honestly the mess we are in isn't just Labours fault it's governmental failures going back decades. Greed greed greed, want want want. We are a greedy stupid nation who fails to understand we are not the centre of the world, just a tiny little overcrowded island about to implode with ignorance and division." There is an element of greed in capitalism it's true, but nobody's come up with a better system yet. The road to happiness and prosperity is definitely not socialism/communism that's for sure. As for the credit crunch of 2008, it was largely a US problem that spread. Caused by poorly regulated financial markets and flawed mathematical modelling of debt bundling and resale. | |||
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"And don't forget all these rich capitalist bankers caused the credit crunch probably 90 % blue ." How to fit at least five logical fallacies into one sentence. Masterful!  | |||
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"Today’s Guardian piece, ‘Labour has one mission only. It must focus on saving Britain from Farage’ Labour clearly shitting themselves at the prospect of a Reform win in four years time. Small boats arrivals this year higher than under the tories. Two ministers resigned for corruption and fraud. Attacks on pensioners, farmers, disabled and allotment holders. Yesterday two Labour MP’s vocal on wanting reversal of the Palestine Action ban, while starmers attempts to shut up Kneecap at Glastonbury failed. Millions of flags put up all over the country in recent weeks in protest at two tier Kier, and Banksy adding weight. Labour peers have apparently told Starmer not to make any more mistakes. And tax raising autumn statement to come and a cabinet reshuffle. Will Starmer turn all this around ? And please, what would the Tories do differently to " turn things around" they weren't doing a great job with the boat people other than wasting many millions on hair brain schemes ,Bibby Stockholm, Rwanda..... And yeah we were all so much better off during their term, no energy increases,no massive fuel prices increase...... Oh wait nope that all happened. You'll making out that it was all sunshine and happiness then as soon as labour took charge it's been constant rain and sadness. I'm afraid the black cloud's of doom and gloom started many years ago. And don't forget all these rich capitalist bankers caused the credit crunch probably 90 % blue . So honestly the mess we are in isn't just Labours fault it's governmental failures going back decades. Greed greed greed, want want want. We are a greedy stupid nation who fails to understand we are not the centre of the world, just a tiny little overcrowded island about to implode with ignorance and division." The state of the nation is handed from one government to another, I expect the incoming to do better than the outgoing. If you are happy to excuse the missteps of labour during their first year, you are providing them with a free pass for their own incompetence. Calling Britain a greedy stupid nation, is a perfect example of why people who work hard and have pride in their country are turning towards Reform. | |||
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" Calling Britain a greedy stupid nation, is a perfect example of why people who work hard and have pride in their country are turning towards Reform." You don't think that the mass of people who want other people to be taxed so that they can "eat the rich", and get stuff that they didn't earn (and vote for parties that promise that), are greedy and stupid? Greedy and stupid goes both ways 
If you take together the messaging of both left and right, it's the only conclusion! | |||
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" Calling Britain a greedy stupid nation, is a perfect example of why people who work hard and have pride in their country are turning towards Reform. You don't think that the mass of people who want other people to be taxed so that they can "eat the rich", and get stuff that they didn't earn (and vote for parties that promise that), are greedy and stupid? Greedy and stupid goes both ways
If you take together the messaging of both left and right, it's the only conclusion!"Of course 
However, I didn’t take greedy and stupid literally, I read it as the usual soundbite venting frustration by labelling the whole country negatively. This has become common parlance that feeds the sense that Britain and its people are a lost cause. It’s exactly the sort of message many people are now rejecting and the fuel of Reform's populism. | |||
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"Absolutely everyone should be shitting themselves and the thought of a Reform win. " Not quite. If you’re in the top 0.1% of UK wealth holders, you’ll be positively gleeful. In fact, if it were me, I’d be aggressively funding and amplifying far-right/divisive media! This will keep the plebs busy being angry at each other, instead of noticing me; the one who is profiting from their struggle, now in plain sight. So no, not “absolutely everyone” at all. | |||
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