Join us FREE, we're FREE to use
Web's largest swingers site since 2006.
Already registered?
Login here
Join us FREE, we're FREE to use
Web's largest swingers site since 2006.
Already registered?
Login here
 | Back to forum list |
| Back to Politics |
| Jump to newest |  |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Looking at the countries that have been hit with the higher tariffs, I think the common theme is cheap clothing and foodstuffs. I have read that up to 97% of clothing is imported into the US. If the tariffs hold that is going to be a serious price shock for consumers. " If I am for example a Nike executive.. and you moved your product out of china to Avoid huge tariffs… only to move it to Vietnam … rough!!! Also… people at Apple can’t be happy… chips for phones produced in Taiwan, trump actually carved out a semiconductor exemption, they were going to be 10% … Apple say but chips goes into phone , and phones is built in Taiwan… hello 40% tariff!! 
Anyway… first casualties coming in… BMWs North American division are closing their engine plant in Mexico because of the tariff… that supplies the final assembly plant in South Carolina… so those have gone!
Stalantis are closing their engine plant in Windsor because of tariffs… which would have supplied the car plant over the river in Detroit.. so that is closing as well | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
" USA the last of our problems. " i'd say that's more than a tad naive considering trump just drove the global economy off a cliff and into a botomless abyss | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"'Trust in Trump's says the White House.. Vance says big changes ahead.. The market says what the fuck are you doing.." Is that going to make an acronym similar to 'Trotters Independent Trading' 🥳 | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hard to know how to feel about this. The imposed tariffs are still less than those imposed on US goods (39% in case of EU, 46% Japan etc). For the UK the tariffs are matched at 10%. Hard to grumble about reciprocal tariffs tbh. Maybe instead we should reflect on why the US enjoys such a consistently dynamic economy and try to learn some lessons." A lot of economists are questioning the way they got to the figures and there are suggestions that some of them have been wrongly calculated (I mean after the way DOGE have been making number mistakes it’s a fair question) | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"'Trust in Trump's says the White House.. Vance says big changes ahead.. The market says what the fuck are you doing.. Is that going to make an acronym similar to 'Trotters Independent Trading' 🥳" Yup, we are seeing MAGA being rebranded as TIT. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"A lot of economists are questioning the way they got to the figures and there are suggestions that some of them have been wrongly calculated (I mean after the way DOGE have been making number mistakes it’s a fair question) " It looks like the figures aren't based on tariffs but on trade deficits. In Trump's mind if the US is importing more from a country than the US is exporting to it this isn't a result of capitalism, instead it's the foreign country somehow taking advantage. He is an idiot with no understanding of economics. In his first term there were people around him who could manage his crazy ideas but that's all been stripped away. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
 | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
What a terrifying thought | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Will he even make it to the end of his term? I'm not suggesting anything untoward just forced out the door. But what then President Vance
What a terrifying thought "JV Dunce  | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"'Trust in Trump's says the White House.. Vance says big changes ahead.. The market says what the fuck are you doing.. Is that going to make an acronym similar to 'Trotters Independent Trading' 🥳" Trotters was a reliable enterprise 
But I think yes it could be one of many such things.. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hard to know how to feel about this. The imposed tariffs are still less than those imposed on US goods (39% in case of EU, 46% Japan etc). For the UK the tariffs are matched at 10%. Hard to grumble about reciprocal tariffs tbh. Maybe instead we should reflect on why the US enjoys such a consistently dynamic economy and try to learn some lessons. A lot of economists are questioning the way they got to the figures and there are suggestions that some of them have been wrongly calculated (I mean after the way DOGE have been making number mistakes it’s a fair question) " Could they be so utterly inept? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Trumps last term was absolutely incredible,we had low inflation,low interest rates and low oil prices. We never had it so good. The cost of lockdown has really messed things up. I'm not too bothered as I'm doing alright "Are u attributing uk inflation and interest rates as a plus of the Trump first term? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Trumps last term was absolutely incredible,we had low inflation,low interest rates and low oil prices. We never had it so good. The cost of lockdown has really messed things up. I'm not too bothered as I'm doing alright
Are u attributing uk inflation and interest rates as a plus of the Trump first term?"Yes, our low inflation in his first was great. Why wouldn't it be? I paid off loads of my mortgage under Trump. Great Times for me. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hard to know how to feel about this. The imposed tariffs are still less than those imposed on US goods (39% in case of EU, 46% Japan etc). For the UK the tariffs are matched at 10%. Hard to grumble about reciprocal tariffs tbh. Maybe instead we should reflect on why the US enjoys such a consistently dynamic economy and try to learn some lessons. A lot of economists are questioning the way they got to the figures and there are suggestions that some of them have been wrongly calculated (I mean after the way DOGE have been making number mistakes it’s a fair question) " was watching trump holding the tariff board and Vietnam was 90 percent when ch4 news done the numbers it turned out Vietnam tariffs on the u.s. is only 9 percent 😂😂😂 | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hard to know how to feel about this. The imposed tariffs are still less than those imposed on US goods (39% in case of EU, 46% Japan etc). For the UK the tariffs are matched at 10%. Hard to grumble about reciprocal tariffs tbh. Maybe instead we should reflect on why the US enjoys such a consistently dynamic economy and try to learn some lessons. A lot of economists are questioning the way they got to the figures and there are suggestions that some of them have been wrongly calculated (I mean after the way DOGE have been making number mistakes it’s a fair question) was watching trump holding the tariff board and Vietnam was 90 percent when ch4 news done the numbers it turned out Vietnam tariffs on the u.s. is only 9 percent 😂😂😂" Exactly…basically Vietnam got punished because Nike and lululemon moved their manufacturing out of china and into Vietnam because of.. the fear of the US tariffing china!!! I have seen an economist do the same proper calculation… where the US put 39% on the board… the actual numbers for tariffs is 1.5% | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hard to know how to feel about this. The imposed tariffs are still less than those imposed on US goods (39% in case of EU, 46% Japan etc). For the UK the tariffs are matched at 10%. Hard to grumble about reciprocal tariffs tbh. Maybe instead we should reflect on why the US enjoys such a consistently dynamic economy and try to learn some lessons. A lot of economists are questioning the way they got to the figures and there are suggestions that some of them have been wrongly calculated (I mean after the way DOGE have been making number mistakes it’s a fair question) " The formula is basically : take the trade deficit between US and Country X, divide that by $ total goods imports from Country X and then divide by two. I'm not quite sure why the UK had any tariff slapped on us since the US enjoys a trade surplus. But it could have been far worse for the UK and in fact brings massive opportunities if we grab them. It would be nice to think Westminster and Business are sitting down at this very moment to get maximum benefit. Don't hold your breath. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I'm not quite sure why the UK had any tariff slapped on us since the US enjoys a trade surplus. But it could have been far worse for the UK and in fact brings massive opportunities if we grab them." I hope you are right. Could you explain what these massive opportunities are? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"America is finished .,it takes generations to re establish manufacturing plants,skilled labour forces, infrastructure etc .. no tariffs are going to force manufacturers back to the USA in droves ..in fact Trump seems to ignore the fact that the automotive sector from both Europe and others have large factories in the States ...personally I'd threaten to close them ! For too long America's rested on its war mongering to generate wealth... It's no longer anything but a shadow of it's former self.... As for a state visit at massive cost to the tax payer under these current conditions it should not happen,and should never have been offered ...if they seriously thought that would be a sweetener to a trade deal that's been promised since Brexit,how foolish were Starmer and more so the King ! Trump only cares for what benefits him...bit like Putin but with less intelligence." Tariff free manufacturing in USA and he said on a previous statement possibility of 15% federal tax’s if you start a business in USA and build you product there. Hard ask I agree and not quick, but not impossible. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I'm not quite sure why the UK had any tariff slapped on us since the US enjoys a trade surplus. But it could have been far worse for the UK and in fact brings massive opportunities if we grab them. I hope you are right. Could you explain what these massive opportunities are?" Start a small farm in USA and lots of grants available. Eu farming basic payments taken away from uk farms due exclusively to brexit and now 20% iht if you sell up. While we import 50% of our food. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
""Well… so much for an economic mastermind" I’m not so convinced he isn’t… He’s driven a very effective wedge between the UK and the EU (item 27 on his list of things-to-do): that Winchester 1854 I have on order from the States has just gone up by 20% whether I buy it in France, Germany or Latvia. But a UK importer could get it cheaper and, if allowed to ship it over the border to Ireland and hence the whole of the EU, gain an unfair advantage. In European terms, an “unlevel playing field”. They are NOT gonna let that happen… Border controls? More paperwork for transport companies?" 20% on new Harleys and their parts. EU dealers will be closing. EU Harley’s largest export market. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"... that Winchester 1854 I have on order from the States has just gone up by 20% whether I buy it in France, Germany or Latvia. But a UK importer could get it cheaper ..." The tariffs are on imports into the US, not on US exports to elsewhere. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
" The formula is basically : take the trade deficit between US and Country X, divide that by $ total goods imports from Country X and then divide by two. I'm not quite sure why the UK had any tariff slapped on us since the US enjoys a trade surplus. But it could have been far worse for the UK and in fact brings massive opportunities if we grab them. It would be nice to think Westminster and Business are sitting down at this very moment to get maximum benefit. Don't hold your breath." So they are basically doing it on trade deficits rather than actual trade tariffs.. so you could be penalising countries for having stuff you want, and they may not need anything from you….. case in point, unless you are a very very niche farmer, your American coffee comes from coffee beans in not from America!!
And for any country where the us has a trading surplus (uk and another 114 countries) the 10% tariff rate is basically nothing but a money grab!
I was up till last night thinking most countries should retaliate…. Actually I am now of the position that hold off a week or two… and let trump burn Americas house down
The headline in a lot a tv outlets and newspapers are telling people they will spend 2500-3000 dollars extra per year if they stick
Manufactures are beginning to already lay off people, groceries are going to start going up and trump on a golf course
You are going to see carve outs and trump buckling…. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"And for any country where the us has a trading surplus (uk and another 114 countries) the 10% tariff rate is basically nothing but a money grab! I was up till last night thinking most countries should retaliate…. Actually I am now of the position that hold off a week or two… and let trump burn Americas house down The headline in a lot a tv outlets and newspapers are telling people they will spend 2500-3000 dollars extra per year if they stick Manufactures are beginning to already lay off people, groceries are going to start going up and trump on a golf course You are going to see carve outs and trump buckling…." I agree. There shouldn't be a knee-jerk retaliation from the rest of the world. Give the US public enough time to realise the consequences of Trump's insanity. Tariffs aren't going to have an immediate effect on most people outside the US so the rest of the world can take its time and governments can discuss things amongst themselves for a month or two before taking any action. I suspect the outcome will be more symbolic tariffs targeting red states and the cancellation of planned investments in the US. In addition very few coutries are going to be buying US weapons from now on and the sharing of intelligence with what is now an ally of Russia will be being re-evaluated. Personally, I think we should begin shutting down US bases in the UK, especially Menwith Hill. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"And for any country where the us has a trading surplus (uk and another 114 countries) the 10% tariff rate is basically nothing but a money grab! I was up till last night thinking most countries should retaliate…. Actually I am now of the position that hold off a week or two… and let trump burn Americas house down The headline in a lot a tv outlets and newspapers are telling people they will spend 2500-3000 dollars extra per year if they stick Manufactures are beginning to already lay off people, groceries are going to start going up and trump on a golf course You are going to see carve outs and trump buckling…. I agree. There shouldn't be a knee-jerk retaliation from the rest of the world. Give the US public enough time to realise the consequences of Trump's insanity. Tariffs aren't going to have an immediate effect on most people outside the US so the rest of the world can take its time and governments can discuss things amongst themselves for a month or two before taking any action. I suspect the outcome will be more symbolic tariffs targeting red states and the cancellation of planned investments in the US. In addition very few coutries are going to be buying US weapons from now on and the sharing of intelligence with what is now an ally of Russia will be being re-evaluated. Personally, I think we should begin shutting down US bases in the UK, especially Menwith Hill." As soon as I wrote this we got the Chinese retaliation… so much for standing still… today’s going to be another stock market bloodbath day! Also… never watch so much CNBC and Bloomberg in my life.. it’s quite addictive!
Anyway I was going to say this is where trump does the Jedi mind trick of saying/doing something controversial to try and get people looking the other way…. Don’t fall for it! | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Some people will be making a fortune from insider knowledge and short selling during all this chaos. The move by China is disappointing but it's in a strong position so can probably afford to flex its muscles. I just looked up external debt in trillions of US dollars. China 2.5, UK 10.5, EU 18.6, US 25.8. If you look at the external debt figures you quote,apart from the Chinese figure,given the size of the EU and countries that make the block up ..out 10.5 is somewhat frightening! " | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"If you look at the external debt figures you quote,apart from the Chinese figure,given the size of the EU and countries that make the block up ..out 10.5 is somewhat frightening!" Those numbers are for total external private and government debt. UK government debt is "only" about $3 trillion (or about 100% of GDP). It used to be about 30% of GDP during the Blair years. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"If you look at the external debt figures you quote,apart from the Chinese figure,given the size of the EU and countries that make the block up ..out 10.5 is somewhat frightening! Those numbers are for total external private and government debt. UK government debt is "only" about $3 trillion (or about 100% of GDP). It used to be about 30% of GDP during the Blair years. " As I remember it moved sharply upwards from the intervention of Alistair darling mp.  | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
" I was up till last night thinking most countries should retaliate…. Actually I am now of the position that hold off a week or two… and let trump burn Americas house down " I think the UK should sit and wait this one out. China has retaliated. The EU almost has to do the same else any credibility it might still have will evaporate. Whether it can hold it together to retaliate is a different question. The UK should let everyone else take chunks out of the US and it should then focus on building up bilateral relations with as many of the pissed off countries as possible - never let a good crisis go to waste. Getting caught up in a dick swinging contest as to who has the most tariffs won’t work - let’s be focussing on getting everyone else into bed. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I'm not quite sure why the UK had any tariff slapped on us since the US enjoys a trade surplus. But it could have been far worse for the UK and in fact brings massive opportunities if we grab them." "I hope you are right. Could you explain what these massive opportunities are?" As an example, the UK has lots of contact breweries. These brew beer for other companies, like supermarket own-brands, promotional beers, and for other brewers that don't have enough capacity. Any of the big names that brew in the EU (think Heineken, Stella, Estrella) are now facing a 20% tariff on their exports to the US. They could phone up a contract brewery in the UK, sign an agreement, and have that same beer being brewed in and shipped from the UK in 3 weeks time, and only facing a 10% tariff. British breweries have an opportunity to grab extra work which no EU brewer can compete with, and EU brewers now have the opportunity to avoid some of the tariffs, with no long term investment needed. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"As I remember it moved sharply upwards from the intervention of Alistair darling mp. "The sh*t hit the fan in 2008 but I think it's unfair to blame Alistair Darling for it. It was a world-wide crisis and UK debt continued to rise under George Osborne. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"As I remember it moved sharply upwards from the intervention of Alistair darling mp.
The sh*t hit the fan in 2008 but I think it's unfair to blame Alistair Darling for it. It was a world-wide crisis and UK debt continued to rise under George Osborne."But the uk bank customers were protected by the fscs which should of been used rather than bailing out the banks. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Some people will be making a fortune from insider knowledge and short selling during all this chaos. The move by China is disappointing but it's in a strong position so can probably afford to flex its muscles. I just looked up external debt in trillions of US dollars. China 2.5, UK 10.5, EU 18.6, US 25.8. " Nothing inside about any of this. He simply did what he said he would, there are few secrets here. Genius double-bluff insider trading! | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"As an example, the UK has lots of contact breweries. These brew beer for other companies, like supermarket own-brands, promotional beers, and for other brewers that don't have enough capacity. Any of the big names that brew in the EU (think Heineken, Stella, Estrella) are now facing a 20% tariff on their exports to the US. They could phone up a contract brewery in the UK, sign an agreement, and have that same beer being brewed in and shipped from the UK in 3 weeks time, and only facing a 10% tariff. British breweries have an opportunity to grab extra work which no EU brewer can compete with, and EU brewers now have the opportunity to avoid some of the tariffs, with no long term investment needed. " Not a bad idea, but it assumes that UK brewers have lots of spare capacity. I think we export about £100 million worth of beer a year to the US already but maybe we could double that. But when you look at profits rather than turnover we'd be talking about relatively small sums of money. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"As I remember it moved sharply upwards from the intervention of Alistair darling mp.
The sh*t hit the fan in 2008 but I think it's unfair to blame Alistair Darling for it. It was a world-wide crisis and UK debt continued to rise under George Osborne.
But the uk bank customers were protected by the fscs which should of been used rather than bailing out the banks. "The bank guarantee only applies to retail customers and it is only for £85k. That sounds like a lot to most people but in reality it is almost nothing from the perspective of the banking sector. RBS was basically bust - literally hours from closing. If they had closed then pretty much all the UK payment system would have failed. That would have then killed off all the other banks. The economy would have stopped overnight. Like back to the stone age stopped. The government had a choice to either make sure that RBS didn’t fail or just switch off the lights. Actually they wouldn’t even have had to switch off the lights because they would have gone out pretty quickly anyway. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Nothing inside about any of this. He simply did what he said he would, there are few secrets here. Genius double-bluff insider trading!" Remember he turned the tariffs on, then off, then on again with Mexico and Canada. Do you really think his mates aren't given any advanced notice of his flip-flops? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Nothing inside about any of this. He simply did what he said he would, there are few secrets here. Genius double-bluff insider trading! Remember he turned the tariffs on, then off, then on again with Mexico and Canada. Do you really think his mates aren't given any advanced notice of his flip-flops? " It's certainly possible at a granular timing level, yes. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"It's certainly possible at a granular timing level, yes." That's all some need to make a few million dollars for ten minutes work. While average people are wondering about how they are going to pay their bills at the end of the month. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"As an example, the UK has lots of contact breweries. These brew beer for other companies, like supermarket own-brands, promotional beers, and for other brewers that don't have enough capacity." "Any of the big names that brew in the EU (think Heineken, Stella, Estrella) are now facing a 20% tariff on their exports to the US. They could phone up a contract brewery in the UK, sign an agreement, and have that same beer being brewed in and shipped from the UK in 3 weeks time, and only facing a 10% tariff. British breweries have an opportunity to grab extra work which no EU brewer can compete with, and EU brewers now have the opportunity to avoid some of the tariffs, with no long term investment needed." "Not a bad idea, but it assumes that UK brewers have lots of spare capacity." I can confidently state that there is a lot of spare capacity right now, and it would be easy to add more if the orders come in. "I think we export about £100 million worth of beer a year to the US already but maybe we could double that. But when you look at profits rather than turnover we'd be talking about relatively small sums of money." It doesn't matter how much we export now, it's how much the EU produces for export to the US, which could be done here instead. The above is just an example of a manufacturing industry that could swap to the UK almost overnight. There are plenty of similar products that could easily be made in the UK rather than the EU, with UK factories already in place to take the work. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I can confidently state that there is a lot of spare capacity right now, and it would be easy to add more if the orders come in." Fair enough, if you work in the brewing industry and know that beer production could be ramped up to many multiples of its current level overnight. But if not and you are an armchair capitalist with a can of Bud in your hand then I'm not sure who would make the capital investment given that the situation next week could be totally different. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
" The formula is basically : take the trade deficit between US and Country X, divide that by $ total goods imports from Country X and then divide by two. I'm not quite sure why the UK had any tariff slapped on us since the US enjoys a trade surplus. But it could have been far worse for the UK and in fact brings massive opportunities if we grab them. It would be nice to think Westminster and Business are sitting down at this very moment to get maximum benefit. Don't hold your breath. So they are basically doing it on trade deficits rather than actual trade tariffs.. so you could be penalising countries for having stuff you want, and they may not need anything from you….. case in point, unless you are a very very niche farmer, your American coffee comes from coffee beans in not from America!!
And for any country where the us has a trading surplus (uk and another 114 countries) the 10% tariff rate is basically nothing but a money grab!
I was up till last night thinking most countries should retaliate…. Actually I am now of the position that hold off a week or two… and let trump burn Americas house down
The headline in a lot a tv outlets and newspapers are telling people they will spend 2500-3000 dollars extra per year if they stick
Manufactures are beginning to already lay off people, groceries are going to start going up and trump on a golf course
You are going to see carve outs and trump buckling…."I agree with you about retaliation - hold off a week or so. In that regard, Starmer's calm, measured approach has been welcome and may yet bring the UK more benefits. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I can confidently state that there is a lot of spare capacity right now, and it would be easy to add more if the orders come in." "Fair enough, if you work in the brewing industry and know that beer production could be ramped up to many multiples of its current level overnight." I don't work in the contract brewing industry myself, but I know several people that do, and they are all complaining about a lack of orders. "But if not and you are an armchair capitalist with a can of Bud in your hand then I'm not sure who would make the capital investment given that the situation next week could be totally different." Again, there's no capital investment needed. The capacity is there in the UK right now, and waiting for the orders. But I can see that you're unwilling to believe that there might be any sort of upside in this situation. I'll let you carry on with your pessimism. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I'm not quite sure why the UK had any tariff slapped on us since the US enjoys a trade surplus. But it could have been far worse for the UK and in fact brings massive opportunities if we grab them. I hope you are right. Could you explain what these massive opportunities are? As an example, the UK has lots of contact breweries. These brew beer for other companies, like supermarket own-brands, promotional beers, and for other brewers that don't have enough capacity. Any of the big names that brew in the EU (think Heineken, Stella, Estrella) are now facing a 20% tariff on their exports to the US. They could phone up a contract brewery in the UK, sign an agreement, and have that same beer being brewed in and shipped from the UK in 3 weeks time, and only facing a 10% tariff. British breweries have an opportunity to grab extra work which no EU brewer can compete with, and EU brewers now have the opportunity to avoid some of the tariffs, with no long term investment needed. " That is an interesting example and would be of benefit. Using existing spare capacity is ideal and if these tariffs were long term it might pay to actually increase capacity though Trump will be gone in 4 years so perhaps a bit risky | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"But I can see that you're unwilling to believe that there might be any sort of upside in this situation. I'll let you carry on with your pessimism." I'm a realist. I've been a freelancer, a senior partner and a director of several companies so I understand the practicalities of making a profit. I'll take your word on the brewers thing and hope this idea takes off. The UK needs every possible penny coming in at the moment as we are drowning in debt. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"JCB plans to double the size of its new US factory after being “galvanised” by Donald Trump’s new trade tariffs. Lord Bamford, chairman of the British digger maker, announced plans to expand JCB’s new factory currently under construction in Texas to 1m square feet and shift production from Europe to the US." To be fair that probably makes sense for JCB - a bigger factory means they will need more diggers to make it. They can sell themselves those extra diggers and then claim a profit on the extra sales | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"In other news UK draws up list of US products it could hit with tariffs…..pensioners, farmers and disabled." | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"This will be Sir Anthony Bamford of J. C. Bamford Excavators Ltd who was knighted by John Major for services to the Conservative Party. The Brexiteer who ranted on an on about supporting UK manufacturing in the UK." The new factory in the US is intended to supply US demand. They'll still be making the same amount of stuff here in the UK. And the US plant is just for assembly of vehicles. The engines will continue to be manufactured in the UK. I'm sure Trump will jump on this as a win for his new tariffs, but they were planning to build the new factory anyway, and are just using the tariff story to get a bit of free publicity. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"US 9 trillion debt up for refinancing so crash markets push investors to US bonds drive interest rates down "If the world truly wanted to fuck the US over then it would boycott the US bond market. If treasury demand ever slowed down then the US would suffer almost instantaneous pressure - massive interest rate rises, huge dollar devaluation, the resulting market crash would make the last couple of days look like a picnic and the government would have to instigate huge emergency tax rises and slash spending at the same time. It would be Armageddon and even Trump couldn’t spin his way out if that one. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"US 9 trillion debt up for refinancing so crash markets push investors to US bonds drive interest rates down
If the world truly wanted to fuck the US over then it would boycott the US bond market. If treasury demand ever slowed down then the US would suffer almost instantaneous pressure - massive interest rate rises, huge dollar devaluation, the resulting market crash would make the last couple of days look like a picnic and the government would have to instigate huge emergency tax rises and slash spending at the same time. It would be Armageddon and even Trump couldn’t spin his way out if that one."The world could but will they? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"US 9 trillion debt up for refinancing so crash markets push investors to US bonds drive interest rates down
If the world truly wanted to fuck the US over then it would boycott the US bond market. If treasury demand ever slowed down then the US would suffer almost instantaneous pressure - massive interest rate rises, huge dollar devaluation, the resulting market crash would make the last couple of days look like a picnic and the government would have to instigate huge emergency tax rises and slash spending at the same time. It would be Armageddon and even Trump couldn’t spin his way out if that one.
The world could but will they? "Almost zero chance. It would take everyone down. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"US 9 trillion debt up for refinancing so crash markets push investors to US bonds drive interest rates down
If the world truly wanted to fuck the US over then it would boycott the US bond market. If treasury demand ever slowed down then the US would suffer almost instantaneous pressure - massive interest rate rises, huge dollar devaluation, the resulting market crash would make the last couple of days look like a picnic and the government would have to instigate huge emergency tax rises and slash spending at the same time. It would be Armageddon and even Trump couldn’t spin his way out if that one.
The world could but will they?
Almost zero chance. It would take everyone down. "That's the plan | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Doesnt look good for us. Starmer is not going to do anything and l guess more job losses" At this stage I would be tempted to say any of the 114 countries on the “10% global tariff“ ( which happens to include the uk) sit this one out…. For now! It doesn’t mean don’t do anything, I would prepare a long list of stuff “to sanction” just in case…. I would even make that list known publicly and ask for opinions (Shit… I have to say I agree with what starmer has done, the only I do disagree with is I would, cancel any free trade deal talks for the time being! Don’t give trump the sniff of any reward for being such an idiot) Let those with the biggest grievances go first We know the Chinese are coming back .. the EU will have to respond, Canada, Mexico, Australia , Japanese, South Korea and Taiwan…. We either get to see trump buckle and cave…. Or we then increase the pressure later on I think there are some really creative ways you can turn the screws | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Doesnt look good for us. Starmer is not going to do anything and l guess more job losses At this stage I would be tempted to say any of the 114 countries on the “10% global tariff“ ( which happens to include the uk) sit this one out…. For now! It doesn’t mean don’t do anything, I would prepare a long list of stuff “to sanction” just in case…. I would even make that list known publicly and ask for opinions (Shit… I have to say I agree with what starmer has done, the only I do disagree with is I would, cancel any free trade deal talks for the time being! Don’t give trump the sniff of any reward for being such an idiot) Let those with the biggest grievances go first We know the Chinese are coming back .. the EU will have to respond, Canada, Mexico, Australia , Japanese, South Korea and Taiwan…. We either get to see trump buckle and cave…. Or we then increase the pressure later on I think there are some really creative ways you can turn the screws " As was pointed out on late news this is both economic and political. Agree this is the way ahead. Uk is possibly not severely impacted. Wait and see what the likes of JLR US sales are and how we are impacted and how American buyers view the tariffs. Reports of some unhappy republicans. It’s about the reaction of Americans too. There’s a lot going on with this, negotiations, pressure from within US, their economy/recession risk, markets, inflation and interest rate policy. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Going to give it a few days till I think things have reached a low then start buying." Yes. Loving this immensely. Moved most investments to cash/bonds over the past year, now waiting for the right discounts to buy! | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Going to give it a few days till I think things have reached a low then start buying." Agreed. I think it has real potential to go lower due to panic but I have always dollar averaged in is and still will. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hasn't the world always existed via trade,be it silk, tobacco,salt or modern products. I'm just a thick carpenter,I can't see the upside to what Trump is doing." Neither can I. I'm not thick though and neither are you. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Going to give it a few days till I think things have reached a low then start buying. Agreed. I think it has real potential to go lower due to panic but I have always dollar averaged in is and still will." A very wise choice. Historically, you would never lose money in the long term with that strategy. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hasn't the world always existed via trade,be it silk, tobacco,salt or modern products. I'm just a thick carpenter,I can't see the upside to what Trump is doing. Neither can I. I'm not thick though and neither are you. " There isn’t any upside for anyone. The reason he is doing it is because his base comes from people who haven’t shared in the move to globalisation - the jobs they would have done were offshored, they lack the skills to engage in the higher tech industries and they see their communities getting poorer. Add to that the fact that the people who have done well tend to look down on them and you get the split in society that we see across many countries. Trump thinks that you can reshore the manufacturing jobs through tariffs and everything will be sorted. The reality is that even if the jobs are re shored via tariffs the cost base will be much higher which means that the products they would now be selling will just be too expensive. Trump is right in that these people have been overlooked and marginalised but the answer is to up skill them and offer them opportunities - not to slap tariffs on everything. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hasn't the world always existed via trade,be it silk, tobacco,salt or modern products. I'm just a thick carpenter,I can't see the upside to what Trump is doing. Neither can I. I'm not thick though and neither are you. " There is definitely a *potential* upside for the US (rebalancing of trade and tariffs in their favour), but it's a massive risk that most sane people would never take. The risk is not just reciprocal tariffs, it includes losing access altogether to essential minerals. China has the US by the short-and-curlies, and most haven't even realised that yet. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hasn't the world always existed via trade,be it silk, tobacco,salt or modern products. I'm just a thick carpenter,I can't see the upside to what Trump is doing. Neither can I. I'm not thick though and neither are you. There isn’t any upside for anyone. The reason he is doing it is because his base comes from people who haven’t shared in the move to globalisation - the jobs they would have done were offshored, they lack the skills to engage in the higher tech industries and they see their communities getting poorer. Add to that the fact that the people who have done well tend to look down on them and you get the split in society that we see across many countries. Trump thinks that you can reshore the manufacturing jobs through tariffs and everything will be sorted. The reality is that even if the jobs are re shored via tariffs the cost base will be much higher which means that the products they would now be selling will just be too expensive. Trump is right in that these people have been overlooked and marginalised but the answer is to up skill them and offer them opportunities - not to slap tariffs on everything." Well said | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
" Trump is right in that these people have been overlooked and marginalised but the answer is to up skill them and offer them opportunities - not to slap tariffs on everything." Upskill whom, how? Into what? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hard to know how to feel about this. The imposed tariffs are still less than those imposed on US goods (39% in case of EU, 46% Japan etc). For the UK the tariffs are matched at 10%. Hard to grumble about reciprocal tariffs tbh. Maybe instead we should reflect on why the US enjoys such a consistently dynamic economy and try to learn some lessons. A lot of economists are questioning the way they got to the figures and there are suggestions that some of them have been wrongly calculated (I mean after the way DOGE have been making number mistakes it’s a fair question) " I think this answers how the tariffs have been (incorrectly) calculated. 
J | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"The top selling cars in the USA are all Toyota " Mostly made in Mexico or USA. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hard to know how to feel about this. The imposed tariffs are still less than those imposed on US goods (39% in case of EU, 46% Japan etc). For the UK the tariffs are matched at 10%. Hard to grumble about reciprocal tariffs tbh. Maybe instead we should reflect on why the US enjoys such a consistently dynamic economy and try to learn some lessons." 2 weeks holiday a year and some don't even take that. Not for me. I'd burn myself out. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Hard to know how to feel about this. The imposed tariffs are still less than those imposed on US goods (39% in case of EU, 46% Japan etc). For the UK the tariffs are matched at 10%. Hard to grumble about reciprocal tariffs tbh. Maybe instead we should reflect on why the US enjoys such a consistently dynamic economy and try to learn some lessons. A lot of economists are questioning the way they got to the figures and there are suggestions that some of them have been wrongly calculated (I mean after the way DOGE have been making number mistakes it’s a fair question) I think this answers how the tariffs have been (incorrectly) calculated.
J"And this time with the link........ 
https://youtu.be/PWhv-06DNjE?si=6dz7J3KfawS8hb1k
J | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Upskill whom, how? Into what?" Poor people in red states. They'll learn on the job. Chimney sweeping, bible printing, breaking large rocks into small rocks, cutting eye holes in pointy hoods, grave digging... | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Upskill whom, how? Into what? Poor people in red states. They'll learn on the job. Chimney sweeping, bible printing, breaking large rocks into small rocks, cutting eye holes in pointy hoods, grave digging... " Makin moonshine and haulin it across the county on the run from Boss Hog | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Upskill whom, how? Into what? Poor people in red states. They'll learn on the job. Chimney sweeping, bible printing, breaking large rocks into small rocks, cutting eye holes in pointy hoods, grave digging... Makin moonshine and haulin it across the county on the run from Boss Hog" But they'll be able to say they are 'great' again.. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Upskill whom, how? Into what? Poor people in red states. They'll learn on the job. Chimney sweeping, bible printing, breaking large rocks into small rocks, cutting eye holes in pointy hoods, grave digging... Makin moonshine and haulin it across the county on the run from Boss Hog But they'll be able to say they are 'great' again.. " Yeeehawwww | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"It looks like China is fighting back. But most other countries have offered to negotiate and reduce tariffs for US goods. If Trump takes this opportunity to reduce tariffs even a little bit in most other markets, it would be a huge win for him. We have to wait and see. People need to stop taking short term stock market reactions seriously "Trump's tariffs are based on trade deficits rather than what other countries tariffs actually are. The EU apparently offered to work towards zero tariffs but Trump ignored this and went ahead with 20% anyway. Trump's base will praise him even if his actions result in them being much worse off. It's about ideology not economics for many. You might be right that the trillions lost over the past few days on the markets will soon be recovered but it's hard to be certain given that Trump has just announced a 104% tax on imports from China and stopped all dialog with them. I suspect the Chinese have already gamed this scenario and will retaliate until virtually all trade between the US and China is wiped out. China can just about afford to do this in order to destroy the USA's long-term power. If this happens then we are almost certainly looking at a world-wide recession. Trump's dreams of massive foreign investment in the US are just dreams. He is so stupid and unpredictable that nobody is going to make a major investment decision. Besides it takes years to ramp up large-scale manufacturng production not weeks or months. Ultimately the US will come out worse in this trade war as US goods are basically crap and China "has all the cards". The other big problem for the US is more subtle. They are totally destroying good will and their soft power. I think it's too late for the US as the rest of the world powers are already starting to reconfigure their trade and alliances. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Although this won’t be at the forefront of Trump’s rationale whilst he goes on & on about the US being ‘ripped off’… …if the US did manage at scale to repatriate manufacturing & costs go up significantly, then that is only how it used to be really. Locally produced goods first & foremost for domestic consumers. Outsourced manufacturing producing goods whilst paying much lower wages to Global South sweatshops to support developed nations citizens artificially inflated standards of living isn’t (& really shouldn’t be) a norm to aspire to." I agree with your sentiment but the outcome might actually be sweatshops in the USA. MAGA are already talking about repealing child labour laws so that children could work overnight shifts on schooldays. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
" I agree with your sentiment but the outcome might actually be sweatshops in the USA. MAGA are already talking about repealing child labour laws so that children could work overnight shifts on schooldays. " Then US workers would still have the opportunity of voting for The Democratic Party in that case? The Democratic Party who have gone along with the neoliberal globalist agenda over the last 45 years which has hollowed out the US Rust Belt, instead of offering any distinct alternative to it. Ditto Labour & the North of England in the UK. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"It looks like China is fighting back. But most other countries have offered to negotiate and reduce tariffs for US goods. If Trump takes this opportunity to reduce tariffs even a little bit in most other markets, it would be a huge win for him. We have to wait and see. People need to stop taking short term stock market reactions seriously
Trump's tariffs are based on trade deficits rather than what other countries tariffs actually are. The EU apparently offered to work towards zero tariffs but Trump ignored this and went ahead with 20% anyway.
Trump's base will praise him even if his actions result in them being much worse off. It's about ideology not economics for many.
You might be right that the trillions lost over the past few days on the markets will soon be recovered but it's hard to be certain given that Trump has just announced a 104% tax on imports from China and stopped all dialog with them. I suspect the Chinese have already gamed this scenario and will retaliate until virtually all trade between the US and China is wiped out. China can just about afford to do this in order to destroy the USA's long-term power.
If this happens then we are almost certainly looking at a world-wide recession.
Trump's dreams of massive foreign investment in the US are just dreams. He is so stupid and unpredictable that nobody is going to make a major investment decision. Besides it takes years to ramp up large-scale manufacturng production not weeks or months.
Ultimately the US will come out worse in this trade war as US goods are basically crap and China "has all the cards".
The other big problem for the US is more subtle. They are totally destroying good will and their soft power.
I think it's too late for the US as the rest of the world powers are already starting to reconfigure their trade and alliances.
"With EU, the situation is more complex than just trade deficit. EU has regulations like the DMA which have specifically targeted American companies. With China, yes it's going to be a trade war. But US exported around $150M worth goods to China while importing about $440M from China. A tariff war would hit Chinese businesses pretty hard. US will probably rely on other countries like India for goods. India and US are already working on a trade deal. Either way America is an economic behemoth and other countries won't be able to easily reconfigure their alliances. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Then US workers would still have the opportunity of voting for The Democratic Party in that case? The Democratic Party who have gone along with the neoliberal globalist agenda over the last 45 years which has hollowed out the US Rust Belt, instead of offering any distinct alternative to it. Ditto Labour & the North of England in the UK." Well yeah, the Democrats are slightly to the right of the Tories after all. Let's hope that the people of the US do actually get to vote in the future. Although to be honest I'm not sure it would have much impact as the core idea of Project 2025 is unitary executive theory where all power resides in the office of the president and the Supreme Court has already said that the president is immune from prosecution for criminal acts. Some might argue that the US Constitution is no longer worth the paper it's written on. I'm no fan of neo-liberalism but I think many are missing the big picture here. Democracy has effectively already died in the USA. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"With EU, the situation is more complex than just trade deficit. EU has regulations like the DMA which have specifically targeted American companies. With China, yes it's going to be a trade war. But US exported around $150M worth goods to China while importing about $440M from China. A tariff war would hit Chinese businesses pretty hard. US will probably rely on other countries like India for goods. India and US are already working on a trade deal. Either way America is an economic behemoth and other countries won't be able to easily reconfigure their alliances." The figures for 2024 were $143 billion and $582 billion. So yes China stands to loose a few bob but China's strategy is to replace the USA as the world's superpower and they'll see a few trillion dollars as a good investment if it helps to destroy the US economy. The hubris of the USA is kind of staggering. There are about 347 million people in the USA but about 7.8 billion people elsewhere on the planet. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"China are the biggest owner of Dollar bonds. They could dump them any day of their choosing and destroy the dollar over night. " It's a substantial weapon in China's arsenal as they own about $750 billion but Japan owns even more at about $1.1 trillion. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"China are the biggest owner of Dollar bonds. They could dump them any day of their choosing and destroy the dollar over night. " https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-top-20-countries-holding-the-most-u-s-debt/ Actually, it's Japan. China could try to dump US bonds, but that wouldn't really achieve very much. It already divested about 500bn with no serious impact (it was 1.3tn just over then years ago). if they divested significantly below market value, they would hurt themselves more. During a stock market meltdown, there would be no shortage of buyers of US bonds at a discount. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"With EU, the situation is more complex than just trade deficit. EU has regulations like the DMA which have specifically targeted American companies. With China, yes it's going to be a trade war. But US exported around $150M worth goods to China while importing about $440M from China. A tariff war would hit Chinese businesses pretty hard. US will probably rely on other countries like India for goods. India and US are already working on a trade deal. Either way America is an economic behemoth and other countries won't be able to easily reconfigure their alliances. The figures for 2024 were $143 billion and $582 billion. So yes China stands to loose a few bob but China's strategy is to replace the USA as the world's superpower and they'll see a few trillion dollars as a good investment if it helps to destroy the US economy. The hubris of the USA is kind of staggering. There are about 347 million people in the USA but about 7.8 billion people elsewhere on the planet." China is way more protectionist than US. How exactly are they going to replace US? Are you saying that countries who got pissed off with US tariffs will align with a country that has even more tariffs? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
" Trump is just an egotistical bully who's just trying to prove how amazing he is ,I very much doubt he cares two shits about Mr and Mrs middle America." Well he should do, because without them, he won’t be re-elected. Of course, there is a consensus he won’t have to be elected as he will change the system, not sure I buy this as he is trying to drive through these tariffs quickly & bluntly, because he wants quick results. Why? Because he wants the MAGA Republicans to be re-elected in 2028 | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"China are the biggest owner of Dollar bonds. They could dump them any day of their choosing and destroy the dollar over night. It's a substantial weapon in China's arsenal as they own about $750 billion but Japan owns even more at about $1.1 trillion. " I’m not up to date with the figures then, they must have sold some. China may be the least concerned country as far as taking a hit from bond loss damage. On another related note Warren Buffet dumped his US bonds, lots, about 6 months ago. Along with his beloved apple shares. If I remember right it was around 850 million dollars in stocks and shares that he dumped. Stock have such a false value today, Reagan was crazy legalising stock buy backs, I fear we’re about to see how much. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I wonder if this is all about trade or (as Trump says) also about Fentanyl? It's a horrific drug, x100 more potent than Morphine (and that's saying something!). The US HAS to stop industrial quantities of Fentanyl being dumped on it's streets to protect it's citizens." Their war on drugs hasn't ever been particularly successful. I'm not sure that a potential recession is going to help with it either | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"China is way more protectionist than US. How exactly are they going to replace US? Are you saying that countries who got pissed off with US tariffs will align with a country that has even more tariffs?" I think you've misunderstood what I mean by alignment. I don't expect UK or EU exports to China to increase. Instead our trade balance will get worse because Chinese goods will probably fall in price as they try to shift their exports from the USA to Europe. By changes in alignment I mean that China will become a more important trading partner to Europe. We'll be more reliant on them to supply us and we'll be trying to attract more Chinese investment. And where money flows politcs will follow as it'll be in our interests to have a good relationship with China. And more broadly I think that most countries outside the USA will be seeking better relationships with each other whether in terms of trade, security or political stability. So yes, I think the world will realign away from the US as the US turns inwards. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"China is way more protectionist than US. How exactly are they going to replace US? Are you saying that countries who got pissed off with US tariffs will align with a country that has even more tariffs? I think you've misunderstood what I mean by alignment. I don't expect UK or EU exports to China to increase. Instead our trade balance will get worse because Chinese goods will probably fall in price as they try to shift their exports from the USA to Europe. By changes in alignment I mean that China will become a more important trading partner to Europe. We'll be more reliant on them to supply us and we'll be trying to attract more Chinese investment. And where money flows politcs will follow as it'll be in our interests to have a good relationship with China. And more broadly I think that most countries outside the USA will be seeking better relationships with each other whether in terms of trade, security or political stability. So yes, I think the world will realign away from the US as the US turns inwards. " …and again if this turns out to be the case, it underlines the hypocrisy of European foreign policy. Fighting for freedom & democracy in Ukraine. Turning a blind eye to Israel’s war crimes in Gaza. Doing bumper trade deals with authoritarian states. It’s all over the place. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"…and again if this turns out to be the case, it underlines the hypocrisy of European foreign policy. Fighting for freedom & democracy in Ukraine. Turning a blind eye to Israel’s war crimes in Gaza. Doing bumper trade deals with authoritarian states. It’s all over the place." It's hard to disagree. However, there is no such a thing as a unified European foreign policy. At least at present. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"It will all be in the negotiation and that is exactly what Trump wants, the rest of the world will still trade with the US because, they can’t afford not to." It depends which Trump you believe, the one who says these tariffs are permanent or the one who says they aren't. He flip-flops on an almost daily basis and that's why the markets are so spooked. If the tariffs on China persist then I don't see how the US is going to avoid massive inflation as the US isn't capable of replacing Chinese goods in the short to medium term. If China holds fast and he's forced to drops the tariffs then he'll lose face and we all know how much he hates that. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"It will all be in the negotiation and that is exactly what Trump wants, the rest of the world will still trade with the US because, they can’t afford not to. It depends which Trump you believe, the one who says these tariffs are permanent or the one who says they aren't. He flip-flops on an almost daily basis and that's why the markets are so spooked. If the tariffs on China persist then I don't see how the US is going to avoid massive inflation as the US isn't capable of replacing Chinese goods in the short to medium term. If China holds fast and he's forced to drops the tariffs then he'll lose face and we all know how much he hates that. " I expect he will say these tariffs are permanent as his starting point, it goes hand in hand with the percentages that have been applied. The administration know very few are going to rollover at face value, start high and come down to enable a feeling of agreement, old school dealing. China will publicly resist hard, it is in their interest, they have a lot to lose. However the amount of trade they have with the US, the manufacturing development that brings to the country that services others, and of course the IP that is hoovered up are not something they will not let go of easily. The media are slowing down on the rage a little today, hopefully that will calm the waters and we can begin to see the trajectory being taken. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Well he should do, because without them, he won’t be re-elected. Of course, there is a consensus he won’t have to be elected as he will change the system, not sure I buy this as he is trying to drive through these tariffs quickly & bluntly, because he wants quick results. Why? Because he wants the MAGA Republicans to be re-elected in 2028" The tariffs are only a small part of the MAGA agenda and there is still debate in the GOP about them as they are traditionally a free trade party. Peter Navarro's camp is winning the argument at the moment but it could swing back the other way if the sh*t really hits the fan. To an extent tariffs are a useful distraction for masking the real goal of Trump and his friends which is to move as quickly as possible to dismantle the US administrative state. They aim to complete this revolution before the mid-term elections. This is also why everything is being done by executive order rather than through legislation. Also the faster they move the less chance there is for legal or other challenges. Well before the mid-terms most of the regulatory institutions in the US will have been abolished. There will be just a few agencies left and these will be under the tight control of Trump loyalists. I think the following article is worth reading as it shows how democracies can be destroyed by democratic means in a very short period of time. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/01/hitler-germany-constitution-authoritarianism/681233/ And no I'm not saying that Trump is Hitler, that was J.D Vance's idea. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"It will all be in the negotiation and that is exactly what Trump wants, the rest of the world will still trade with the US because, they can’t afford not to. It depends which Trump you believe, the one who says these tariffs are permanent or the one who says they aren't. He flip-flops on an almost daily basis and that's why the markets are so spooked. If the tariffs on China persist then I don't see how the US is going to avoid massive inflation as the US isn't capable of replacing Chinese goods in the short to medium term. If China holds fast and he's forced to drops the tariffs then he'll lose face and we all know how much he hates that. " I've lived in China, and Trump's threats are precisely how not to approach negotiations. There is a deep rooted principle of 'not losing face' in China (called mianzi). Xi won't back down for that reason. Vance calling them 'peasants' just fuels the flames. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"They want to fuck Vance off out of it, he's going to start WW3" Greed will start ww3! Making vance or China etc a scapegoat doesn't change that | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"They want to fuck Vance off out of it, he's going to start WW3 Greed will start ww3! Making vance or China etc a scapegoat doesn't change that" Trump will do what he always does, create a distraction. A nuclear attack on Iran should do it. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I’m not a globalist, always hated that way of thinking. So I can’t pretend to be disappointed that Trump has hit the reset button. World markets, and capitalism itself are all taking this badly. Soon, however, the world will have to get on with business just like it always did. Things that are made or grown in the UK will be the cheapest option for a change. Best reason to buy British ever." Agreed Expect the new government doesn’t Reeves rejects calls for ‘buy British’ campaign in response to US tariffs Chancellor says asking shoppers to prioritise UK products would make country too ‘inward-looking’ | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"All he does is isolating america and weakening the dollar too." It will be the USA.’s loss USA gdp $27trn Global gdp $106trn Nobody anywhere needs a Harley, a Jeep or chlorinated chickens. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Trumps last term was absolutely incredible,we had low inflation,low interest rates and low oil prices. We never had it so good. The cost of lockdown has really messed things up. I'm not too bothered as I'm doing alright "Nice to see there are a couple objective people on here! Yep not all doom and gloom and hating Elon Musk and the Orange man because they have been told too. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/04/support-grows-for-president-trumps-america-first-reciprocal-trade-plan/ | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I’m not a globalist, always hated that way of thinking. So I can’t pretend to be disappointed that Trump has hit the reset button. World markets, and capitalism itself are all taking this badly. Soon, however, the world will have to get on with business just like it always did. Things that are made or grown in the UK will be the cheapest option for a change. Best reason to buy British ever. Agreed Expect the new government doesn’t Reeves rejects calls for ‘buy British’ campaign in response to US tariffs Chancellor says asking shoppers to prioritise UK products would make country too ‘inward-looking’ " She really shouldn't be our Chancellor, not a clue... | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"This isn’t about US isolationism it’s about the US realigning their trading strategy. Trump’s policy is disruptive high risk, but if it succeeds the outcome is large economic returns and he is willing to take that gamble. If these tariffs once settled, reduce the US trade deficit by 20% they could add close to 1% on US GDP, from that perspective I can see why he believes he has a quick win. It will all be in the negotiation and that is exactly what Trump wants, the rest of the world will still trade with the US because, they can’t afford not to. Right now this is all up in the air, and until negotiations have begun and we start to see the real tariff levels come in, it is all speculation, mostly on worst case fuelled by the media. " I'm convinced you're a parody at this point, either that or have a crystal ball and should be called mystic Meg as there's no way you can confidently tell people you understand what Donald trump is doing or what his goal is whilst f**king up the global economy. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I’m not a globalist, always hated that way of thinking. So I can’t pretend to be disappointed that Trump has hit the reset button. World markets, and capitalism itself are all taking this badly. Soon, however, the world will have to get on with business just like it always did. Things that are made or grown in the UK will be the cheapest option for a change. Best reason to buy British ever." How will Trump putting a tariff on UK exports to the US make things made in the UK the cheapest option for UK consumers? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I’m not a globalist, always hated that way of thinking. So I can’t pretend to be disappointed that Trump has hit the reset button. World markets, and capitalism itself are all taking this badly. Soon, however, the world will have to get on with business just like it always did. Things that are made or grown in the UK will be the cheapest option for a change. Best reason to buy British ever. Agreed Expect the new government doesn’t Reeves rejects calls for ‘buy British’ campaign in response to US tariffs Chancellor says asking shoppers to prioritise UK products would make country too ‘inward-looking’ " Reeves doesn’t seem capable of understanding the very basics of her job as chancellor. Why on earth have we been lumbered with an idiot in number eleven? Perhaps she knows things that Starmer doesn’t want to get out? One thing is for sure, she didn’t get the job because she was the best person for it… | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I’m not a globalist, always hated that way of thinking. So I can’t pretend to be disappointed that Trump has hit the reset button. World markets, and capitalism itself are all taking this badly. Soon, however, the world will have to get on with business just like it always did. Things that are made or grown in the UK will be the cheapest option for a change. Best reason to buy British ever. How will Trump putting a tariff on UK exports to the US make things made in the UK the cheapest option for UK consumers? " Put it this way, goods made in Britain will be cheaper than anything imported from the US. Which could help with the survival of whatever manufacturing businesses we still have left. The EU will rely on any business they can do without exporting to the US, and they could well lower their prices. The whole world is changing, but eventually normality will return. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Put it this way, goods made in Britain will be cheaper than anything imported from the US. Which could help with the survival of whatever manufacturing businesses we still have left. The EU will rely on any business they can do without exporting to the US, and they could well lower their prices. The whole world is changing, but eventually normality will return." I still don't understand your reasoning. Almost nobody in the UK buys goods made in the USA but if they did Trump's tariffs wouldn't make US goods more expensive. And if EU prices become lower this will make it less likely that UK goods will be the cheapest option nor more likely. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I’m not a globalist, always hated that way of thinking. So I can’t pretend to be disappointed that Trump has hit the reset button. World markets, and capitalism itself are all taking this badly. Soon, however, the world will have to get on with business just like it always did. Things that are made or grown in the UK will be the cheapest option for a change. Best reason to buy British ever. How will Trump putting a tariff on UK exports to the US make things made in the UK the cheapest option for UK consumers? Put it this way, goods made in Britain will be cheaper than anything imported from the US. Which could help with the survival of whatever manufacturing businesses we still have left. The EU will rely on any business they can do without exporting to the US, and they could well lower their prices. The whole world is changing, but eventually normality will return." Unless the UK introduce tariffs on goods from America in retaliation I don't see how the price of US imported goods v UK goods in this country changes. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Half the reason the US are in a trade deficit is because the stuff they make is utter shite that nobody wants. And the stuff they do that people actually DO want, like tech, is built overseas because of high US labour costs. " The US is in a trade deficit because they consume too much and save too little. Normally when a country does this they have to pay for it by selling their currency, which will go down and make their exports cheaper and their imports more expansive. That doesn’t happen with the US because the US is funding its consumption by issuing debt (corporate and government bonds) which the people exporting to the US are then buying and keeping. Everyone loves to hold dollars! Essentially the US is buying goods from other countries with debt. This keeps the dollar high which means foreign goods remain cheap and American goods are expensive. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Half the reason the US are in a trade deficit is because the stuff they make is utter shite that nobody wants. And the stuff they do that people actually DO want, like tech, is built overseas because of high US labour costs. The US is in a trade deficit because they consume too much and save too little. Normally when a country does this they have to pay for it by selling their currency, which will go down and make their exports cheaper and their imports more expansive. That doesn’t happen with the US because the US is funding its consumption by issuing debt (corporate and government bonds) which the people exporting to the US are then buying and keeping. Everyone loves to hold dollars! Essentially the US is buying goods from other countries with debt. This keeps the dollar high which means foreign goods remain cheap and American goods are expensive." The conundrum the US has is that they get real power from having the dollar as the global reserve currency - as well as being able to live beyond their means by issuing debt they also have a lock on the global banking system which they are now increasingly using as a tool to exert foreign policy decisions. The vast majority of global trade takes place in dollars which means almost every bank in the world has to hold them. If you hold dollars you need to clear through New York. You want to clear through New York then you had better do what the NY Fed wants and if that means not trading with certain people (sanctions) then you don’t trade with them else you lose your licence. All this just means the dollar stays artificially high. A high dollar means a large trade deficit. Around the circle we go. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Trump wants to smash the markets down 20%... interest rates will drop and are dropping. Absolutely legendary if he pulls this off. " People's pensions and the like are dropping out their arse and what he's doing is legendary 
We'll see if you think that when there's thousands of job losses in 6 months | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Half the reason the US are in a trade deficit is because the stuff they make is utter shite that nobody wants. And the stuff they do that people actually DO want, like tech, is built overseas because of high US labour costs. The US is in a trade deficit because they consume too much and save too little. Normally when a country does this they have to pay for it by selling their currency, which will go down and make their exports cheaper and their imports more expansive. That doesn’t happen with the US because the US is funding its consumption by issuing debt (corporate and government bonds) which the people exporting to the US are then buying and keeping. Everyone loves to hold dollars! Essentially the US is buying goods from other countries with debt. This keeps the dollar high which means foreign goods remain cheap and American goods are expensive. The conundrum the US has is that they get real power from having the dollar as the global reserve currency - as well as being able to live beyond their means by issuing debt they also have a lock on the global banking system which they are now increasingly using as a tool to exert foreign policy decisions. The vast majority of global trade takes place in dollars which means almost every bank in the world has to hold them. If you hold dollars you need to clear through New York. You want to clear through New York then you had better do what the NY Fed wants and if that means not trading with certain people (sanctions) then you don’t trade with them else you lose your licence. All this just means the dollar stays artificially high. A high dollar means a large trade deficit. Around the circle we go." The reason all this impacts Trumps base is that the jobs those people will have historically done have been outsourced to Asia because of the free trade agreements (which have been great for the rest of the world ) but the continually high dollar means that they cannot compete. The coastal regions of the US love a high dollar because they are either using it to import cheaply, recycling it because they work in the financial sector or using it for power reasons because they are the military or Washington based. The schmuk in Nowheresville, Alabama doesn’t see any of this activity - he just sees a good manufacturing job disappearing to be replaced with low paid service work. He feels he is getting fucked (basically he is) and he has had enough. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"This isn’t about US isolationism it’s about the US realigning their trading strategy. Trump’s policy is disruptive high risk, but if it succeeds the outcome is large economic returns and he is willing to take that gamble. If these tariffs once settled, reduce the US trade deficit by 20% they could add close to 1% on US GDP, from that perspective I can see why he believes he has a quick win. It will all be in the negotiation and that is exactly what Trump wants, the rest of the world will still trade with the US because, they can’t afford not to. Right now this is all up in the air, and until negotiations have begun and we start to see the real tariff levels come in, it is all speculation, mostly on worst case fuelled by the media. I'm convinced you're a parody at this point, either that or have a crystal ball and should be called mystic Meg as there's no way you can confidently tell people you understand what Donald trump is doing or what his goal is whilst f**king up the global economy. " What do did you disagree with exactly? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Trump wants to smash the markets down 20%... interest rates will drop and are dropping. Absolutely legendary if he pulls this off. People's pensions and the like are dropping out their arse and what he's doing is legendary
We'll see if you think that when there's thousands of job losses in 6 months "Everyone's pensions are fucked anyway. The cost of Biden and devalued my pension so much anyway. Its lost money and we all know this. I'll never lose my job, trust me. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Everyone's pensions are fucked anyway. The cost of Biden and devalued my pension so much anyway. Its lost money and we all know this. I'll never lose my job, trust me. " You might want to change your pension provider as the markets rose in the Biden years - for instance the FTSE 100 went from about 6,500 in Jan 2021 to about 8,500 in Jan 2025. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"China could try to dump US bonds, but that wouldn't really achieve very much. It already divested about 500bn with no serious impact (it was 1.3tn just over then years ago). if they divested significantly below market value, they would hurt themselves more. During a stock market meltdown, there would be no shortage of buyers of US bonds at a discount." It looks like investors are currently dumping US bonds in a dash for cash. It might be the heaviest selloff since 1981 according to a Reuters report. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Everyone's pensions are fucked anyway. The cost of Biden and devalued my pension so much anyway. Its lost money and we all know this. I'll never lose my job, trust me. You might want to change your pension provider as the markets rose in the Biden years - for instance the FTSE 100 went from about 6,500 in Jan 2021 to about 8,500 in Jan 2025. " Please don’t befuddle the person with actual facts…. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Everyone's pensions are fucked anyway. The cost of Biden and devalued my pension so much anyway. Its lost money and we all know this. I'll never lose my job, trust me. You might want to change your pension provider as the markets rose in the Biden years - for instance the FTSE 100 went from about 6,500 in Jan 2021 to about 8,500 in Jan 2025. " That's a 30.77% increase. How does that sit with inflation? Which it probably a lot higher than what we think? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Everyone's pensions are fucked anyway. The cost of Biden and devalued my pension so much anyway. Its lost money and we all know this. I'll never lose my job, trust me. You might want to change your pension provider as the markets rose in the Biden years - for instance the FTSE 100 went from about 6,500 in Jan 2021 to about 8,500 in Jan 2025. That's a 30.77% increase. How does that sit with inflation? Which it probably a lot higher than what we think? " Average returns across the Biden period were about 30%. Inflation was about 20% cumulative across that period. Real market returns were between 5 to 15% depending on the market. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"China could try to dump US bonds, but that wouldn't really achieve very much. It already divested about 500bn with no serious impact (it was 1.3tn just over then years ago). if they divested significantly below market value, they would hurt themselves more. During a stock market meltdown, there would be no shortage of buyers of US bonds at a discount. It looks like investors are currently dumping US bonds in a dash for cash. It might be the heaviest selloff since 1981 according to a Reuters report." That might play into China's hands, even if they don't sell some if their holdings.. That they've announced a tax increase on US imports will add more pressure.. Vance will be calling them more than 'peasants'.. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"I've been thinking more about how the Chinese government might view things. Exports from China to the US represent about 3% of China's GDP. This sounds like a lot but China's GDP is growing at about 4% to 5% each year. So even if all exports to the US evaporated it would be just like their economy going back to last summer. " Losing 3% of GDP in exports to the US is an immediate contraction. On top of that, you’ve got job losses, supply chain disruption, and investment / infrastructure loss. China would be losing its biggest customer, and that can only hurt. That said, I think it’s the US consumer that could cause Trump the most pain, as prices rise from demand and there is nothing in place to fill the gap quickly, that I'm aware of. My thinking is, do you weather a painful rebuilding of your manufacturing base, needing heavy subsidies and investment, to cut reliance on your biggest rival? Or do you stay locked into the old system, and fight to make changes in your favour which is what he is trying to do now? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Half the reason the US are in a trade deficit is because the stuff they make is utter shite that nobody wants. And the stuff they do that people actually DO want, like tech, is built overseas because of high US labour costs. The US is in a trade deficit because they consume too much and save too little. Normally when a country does this they have to pay for it by selling their currency, which will go down and make their exports cheaper and their imports more expansive. That doesn’t happen with the US because the US is funding its consumption by issuing debt (corporate and government bonds) which the people exporting to the US are then buying and keeping. Everyone loves to hold dollars! Essentially the US is buying goods from other countries with debt. This keeps the dollar high which means foreign goods remain cheap and American goods are expensive. The conundrum the US has is that they get real power from having the dollar as the global reserve currency - as well as being able to live beyond their means by issuing debt they also have a lock on the global banking system which they are now increasingly using as a tool to exert foreign policy decisions. The vast majority of global trade takes place in dollars which means almost every bank in the world has to hold them. If you hold dollars you need to clear through New York. You want to clear through New York then you had better do what the NY Fed wants and if that means not trading with certain people (sanctions) then you don’t trade with them else you lose your licence. All this just means the dollar stays artificially high. A high dollar means a large trade deficit. Around the circle we go. The reason all this impacts Trumps base is that the jobs those people will have historically done have been outsourced to Asia because of the free trade agreements (which have been great for the rest of the world ) but the continually high dollar means that they cannot compete. The coastal regions of the US love a high dollar because they are either using it to import cheaply, recycling it because they work in the financial sector or using it for power reasons because they are the military or Washington based. The schmuk in Nowheresville, Alabama doesn’t see any of this activity - he just sees a good manufacturing job disappearing to be replaced with low paid service work. He feels he is getting fucked (basically he is) and he has had enough." But the “jobs” you get back by tariffing the likes of Cambodia and Vietnam aren’t the highly skilled ones… it’s the labour intensive sweatshop type job that Americans thumb their noses up at… especially when unemployment is only 4% anyway… For example, there was a reason why the Haitian workers on TPS were sent to Springfield Ohio…. Local plants needed labour, locals didn’t want to do it! They are trying to make trade deficits into an inherently bad thing which they are not, if America for example, could produce enough coffee, or pineapples, or bananas then cool.. but you can’t false a country to take shit they don’t want | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Half the reason the US are in a trade deficit is because the stuff they make is utter shite that nobody wants. And the stuff they do that people actually DO want, like tech, is built overseas because of high US labour costs. The US is in a trade deficit because they consume too much and save too little. Normally when a country does this they have to pay for it by selling their currency, which will go down and make their exports cheaper and their imports more expansive. That doesn’t happen with the US because the US is funding its consumption by issuing debt (corporate and government bonds) which the people exporting to the US are then buying and keeping. Everyone loves to hold dollars! Essentially the US is buying goods from other countries with debt. This keeps the dollar high which means foreign goods remain cheap and American goods are expensive. The conundrum the US has is that they get real power from having the dollar as the global reserve currency - as well as being able to live beyond their means by issuing debt they also have a lock on the global banking system which they are now increasingly using as a tool to exert foreign policy decisions. The vast majority of global trade takes place in dollars which means almost every bank in the world has to hold them. If you hold dollars you need to clear through New York. You want to clear through New York then you had better do what the NY Fed wants and if that means not trading with certain people (sanctions) then you don’t trade with them else you lose your licence. All this just means the dollar stays artificially high. A high dollar means a large trade deficit. Around the circle we go. The reason all this impacts Trumps base is that the jobs those people will have historically done have been outsourced to Asia because of the free trade agreements (which have been great for the rest of the world ) but the continually high dollar means that they cannot compete. The coastal regions of the US love a high dollar because they are either using it to import cheaply, recycling it because they work in the financial sector or using it for power reasons because they are the military or Washington based. The schmuk in Nowheresville, Alabama doesn’t see any of this activity - he just sees a good manufacturing job disappearing to be replaced with low paid service work. He feels he is getting fucked (basically he is) and he has had enough. But the “jobs” you get back by tariffing the likes of Cambodia and Vietnam aren’t the highly skilled ones… it’s the labour intensive sweatshop type job that Americans thumb their noses up at… especially when unemployment is only 4% anyway… For example, there was a reason why the Haitian workers on TPS were sent to Springfield Ohio…. Local plants needed labour, locals didn’t want to do it! They are trying to make trade deficits into an inherently bad thing which they are not, if America for example, could produce enough coffee, or pineapples, or bananas then cool.. but you can’t false a country to take shit they don’t want " I understand that - which is exactly what I said further up the thread. It doesn’t however change the fact that there are people who haven’t benefited from the move to globalisation and who don’t have a vested interest in maintaining the trade deficit. I never said tariffs were a good thing - I simply observe that the trade deficit has systemic reasons why it won’t be unwound by free trade and there are a lot of American voters who will suffer because of that. Any analysis of the American polcitical system needs to take these people and their economic actualite into account. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Losing 3% of GDP in exports to the US is an immediate contraction. On top of that, you’ve got job losses, supply chain disruption, and investment / infrastructure loss. China would be losing its biggest customer, and that can only hurt. That said, I think it’s the US consumer that could cause Trump the most pain, as prices rise from demand and there is nothing in place to fill the gap quickly, that I'm aware of. My thinking is, do you weather a painful rebuilding of your manufacturing base, needing heavy subsidies and investment, to cut reliance on your biggest rival? Or do you stay locked into the old system, and fight to make changes in your favour which is what he is trying to do now? " I could quote Sun Tzu but... Of course it's going to hurt China. They don't want this trade war but they know they will win. If Trump wants to rebalance the US economy he needs to fairly tax the wealthiest companies/people on the planet and invest in education, infrastructure projects, innovation, green energy and encourage foreign talent to move to the US but he doesn't give a f*ck about any of this or the average US citizen. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"Losing 3% of GDP in exports to the US is an immediate contraction. On top of that, you’ve got job losses, supply chain disruption, and investment / infrastructure loss. China would be losing its biggest customer, and that can only hurt. That said, I think it’s the US consumer that could cause Trump the most pain, as prices rise from demand and there is nothing in place to fill the gap quickly, that I'm aware of. My thinking is, do you weather a painful rebuilding of your manufacturing base, needing heavy subsidies and investment, to cut reliance on your biggest rival? Or do you stay locked into the old system, and fight to make changes in your favour which is what he is trying to do now? I could quote Sun Tzu but... Of course it's going to hurt China. They don't want this trade war but they know they will win. If Trump wants to rebalance the US economy he needs to fairly tax the wealthiest companies/people on the planet and invest in education, infrastructure projects, innovation, green energy and encourage foreign talent to move to the US but he doesn't give a f*ck about any of this or the average US citizen. " You say China knows they will win, how? Losing your biggest customer isn't something they will want and Trump equally must be aware of the backlash should trade with China stop. Neither of those 2 things will happen (hopefully not), as stubborn and bullish both leaders are, they know what they are playing for. Trump’s motives and whether he cares or not for the average citizen is opinion only. From my perspective he’s forcing a change of trade terms that he has already said is open to negotiation. It’s high risk, but if it shifts the deficit, the US strengthens its position longterm. I think what is lost in all of the noise, is Trump isn’t trying to build a perfect system of equal tariffs he’s gambling on reducing the deficits through crude leveraging tactics. Can other countries afford to walk away from the US market, or would it be better to get around the negotiating table. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"China has further retaliated with 84% tariffs, that’s an expensive Harley. US borrowing costs have started to move upward Does Trump understand what’s he’s done " It the way the Chinese are playing this game.. it’s epic! Notice the timing of the announcements… timed to coincide with the opening of American stock exchange futures! The Chinese are just going to sit there and wait for republicans to peel off against Trump! The worst thing for Trump is that you already have enough republicans in the senate to take away the national security emergency tariff power… if enough republicans in the house turn… you are going to have the embarrassment of vetoing it, and you look more manic! | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"NotMe66 as I've already said even if US-China trade drops to zero, for China it will be just like they've gone back to last summer. Obviously not an ideal situation but nothing that they can't handle. China isn't going to back down even if Trump puts tariffs up to 1,000,000%. The more Trump huffs and puffs the more they will laugh as they will have already gamed this scenario. " What you are implying is China will never budge and the US will need to yield to the tariffs China impose. Also the idea of losing 3% GDP as being in the same position last year is a monetary figure only. You will know that to grow GDP by 3% there would need to be investment in infrastructure, jobs and supply chains, so it isn't in reality simply going back 12 months to gross figure. I agree China can deal with some of the loss, but I would not expect this to be a complete no deal, something needs to give and I'm not convinced it is as one sided as you think. I can see Trump has played this in his usual way of high disruption, followed by negotiation, it was clumsy regardless of if it produces positive or negative outcomes for the US. However, the idea of reducing the US trade deficit is not a bad one. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"What you are implying is China will never budge and the US will need to yield to the tariffs China impose. Also the idea of losing 3% GDP as being in the same position last year is a monetary figure only. You will know that to grow GDP by 3% there would need to be investment in infrastructure, jobs and supply chains, so it isn't in reality simply going back 12 months to gross figure. I agree China can deal with some of the loss, but I would not expect this to be a complete no deal, something needs to give and I'm not convinced it is as one sided as you think. I can see Trump has played this in his usual way of high disruption, followed by negotiation, it was clumsy regardless of if it produces positive or negative outcomes for the US. However, the idea of reducing the US trade deficit is not a bad one." I'm probably wasting my time trying to persuade you of the realities of this situation. The Chinese government isn't going to kowtow to Donald Trump. They don't need to and if they did it might negatively impact the path they see for China to become the world's superpower sometime in the next decade or two. It doesn't matter what Trump or his sycophants think. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
"What you are implying is China will never budge and the US will need to yield to the tariffs China impose. Also the idea of losing 3% GDP as being in the same position last year is a monetary figure only. You will know that to grow GDP by 3% there would need to be investment in infrastructure, jobs and supply chains, so it isn't in reality simply going back 12 months to gross figure. I agree China can deal with some of the loss, but I would not expect this to be a complete no deal, something needs to give and I'm not convinced it is as one sided as you think. I can see Trump has played this in his usual way of high disruption, followed by negotiation, it was clumsy regardless of if it produces positive or negative outcomes for the US. However, the idea of reducing the US trade deficit is not a bad one. I'm probably wasting my time trying to persuade you of the realities of this situation. The Chinese government isn't going to kowtow to Donald Trump. They don't need to and if they did it might negatively impact the path they see for China to become the world's superpower sometime in the next decade or two. It doesn't matter what Trump or his sycophants think. " I’m all ears on the realities — and I’m genuinely interested in how this plays out. But I don’t back myself into a corner by assuming that just because it’s a Trump policy, it must be bad. Too much of political debate has become about picking a side, regardless of the policy or the outcome. That’s part of the problem. I’d rather judge it on results than preconceptions, and discuss the what if's etc. But everything related to Trump seems to get shut down because “Trump bad". | |||
(closed, thread got too big) | |||
| Reply privately |
| back to top |  |
