FabSwingers.com forum: How can they say the rate of spread is slowing

By *ittleMissCali OP Woman
over a year ago

all loved up

When they are not testing most people. I'm all for good news..and still do think current situation is a huge over reaction... but ... they are reporting today that they think the lockdown is working.

Erm even I know that it will take time after implementing this to get any real show... and as they are not testing people self isolating unless NHS staff..how do they know

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 30/03/20 15:56:18]

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By *ittleMissCali OP Woman
over a year ago

all loved up

"I just think they aren’t testing the right people - haven’t they done over 100k tests and hardly any (in comparison) coming back positive?

"
apparently new hospital admissions are going down. But I would say that its more they arent actually admitting people

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

More testing isn’t the answer in my opinion - testing the right people is...

As of 9am on 29 March 2020, a total of 127,737 people have been tested, of which 108,215 were confirmed negative and 19,522 were confirmed positive.

15% of tests showing positive...

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By *uttyjonnMan
over a year ago

SEA

I dont think they know really

They could use the number of calls to the NHS 111 I suppose

I am amazed that the stats are saying only 135 people have recovered from 19500 infected.

I assume it all down to the lack of testing which makes stats almost useless

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"When they are not testing most people. I'm all for good news..and still do think current situation is a huge over reaction... but ... they are reporting today that they think the lockdown is working.

Erm even I know that it will take time after implementing this to get any real show... and as they are not testing people self isolating unless NHS staff..how do they know "

All spin to keep you compliant.

At some point people are going to get fed up being locked down and just go out.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

Erm even I know that it will take time after implementing this to get any real show... and as they are not testing people self isolating unless NHS staff..how do they know

All spin to keep you compliant.

At some point people are going to get fed up being locked down and just go out. "
Only the stupid will do that,more prosecutions are taking place for not keeping distance in this area

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

could it be because the high risk people are taking it seriously and not putting themselves in danger but taking the advice and staying at home?

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By *ittleMissCali OP Woman
over a year ago

all loved up

"could it be because the high risk people are taking it seriously and not putting themselves in danger but taking the advice and staying at home?"
or they are not taking many into hospital. Like from care homes etc.

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By *xMFM3sumsxxWoman
over a year ago

SouthWest Lancashire

Probably just making things up to look good. Media won't question the primarily white male government, but when Diane abbott does something wrong (she's black and a a woman) they never shut up about it.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"Probably just making things up to look good. Media won't question the primarily white male government, but when Diane abbott does something wrong (she's black and a a woman) they never shut up about it."
Cant you just leave politics out of it until its over? its time to pull together not divide.

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By *xMFM3sumsxxWoman
over a year ago

SouthWest Lancashire

Cant you just leave politics out of it until its over? its time to pull together not divide."

Yeah sure, i will pretend everyone cares and shut up now.

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By *anejohnkent6263Couple
over a year ago

canterbury

Check italy ...lockdown for 4 weeks and still dropping like flies ....theft and disregarde for the lockdown growing ...what next riots on streets looming....

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By *ittleMissCali OP Woman
over a year ago

all loved up

"Check italy ...lockdown for 4 weeks and still dropping like flies ....theft and disregarde for the lockdown growing ...what next riots on streets looming...."
we are not Italy though..and havent been locked down as harshly

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By *eddy and legsCouple
over a year ago

the wetlands

"More testing isn’t the answer in my opinion - testing the right people is...

As of 9am on 29 March 2020, a total of 127,737 people have been tested, of which 108,215 were confirmed negative and 19,522 were confirmed positive.

15% of tests showing positive... "

They MUST test all patients and admission to hospitals symptoms or not that's one reason so many are negative.

Until the deaths start to decline testing the general public is worthless.

You're supposed to be staying in and keeping distance so you will keep it in the family

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By *anejohnkent6263Couple
over a year ago

canterbury

[Removed by poster at 30/03/20 16:59:21]

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By *anejohnkent6263Couple
over a year ago

canterbury

How many people have died of the flu this winter...or are the figures distorted....just saying

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By *avana8817Man
over a year ago

Consett

The statistics are here

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Shows confirmed cases etc

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Bit racist, luv.

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By *ittleMissCali OP Woman
over a year ago

all loved up

"More testing isn’t the answer in my opinion - testing the right people is...

As of 9am on 29 March 2020, a total of 127,737 people have been tested, of which 108,215 were confirmed negative and 19,522 were confirmed positive.

15% of tests showing positive...

They MUST test all patients and admission to hospitals symptoms or not that's one reason so many are negative.

Until the deaths start to decline testing the general public is worthless.

You're supposed to be staying in and keeping distance so you will keep it in the family "
yes but you cant say the spread is slowing down if your only doing the limited testing they are doing

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By *eddy and legsCouple
over a year ago

the wetlands

"How many people have died of the flu this winter...or are the figures distorted....just saying "

It would be interesting to compare flu deaths for the first 3 months of 2019 compared to flu+coronavirus for this year

Not that it makes any difference because it's not about the number of deaths as much as overrunning the NHS with people that CAN be saved with ventilation

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

Is it wrong to show a possible glimmer of good news? I think it's right to, with full qualification of it.

Deaths tend to be the results of older infections and government policy, whereas admissions reflect more recent, on average.

We need a sustained period of decline to indicate a change in the trend.

We should be testing all NHS and careworkers. People reporting infection symptoms should also be tested.

The WHO advice is to test.

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By *eddy and legsCouple
over a year ago

the wetlands

"More testing isn’t the answer in my opinion - testing the right people is...

As of 9am on 29 March 2020, a total of 127,737 people have been tested, of which 108,215 were confirmed negative and 19,522 were confirmed positive.

15% of tests showing positive...

They MUST test all patients and admission to hospitals symptoms or not that's one reason so many are negative.

Until the deaths start to decline testing the general public is worthless.

You're supposed to be staying in and keeping distance so you will keep it in the family yes but you cant say the spread is slowing down if your only doing the limited testing they are doing "

There's a direct relationship between the number of deaths and the spread although there is a delay obviously between infection and death it's as good an indicator as we need at the moment

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By *olly_chromaticTV/TS
over a year ago

Stockport

The numbers are being kept low by not testing people even when they have all the symptoms, and not performing routine tests even on health workers. It is quite obvious that there are insufficient test kits available, or insufficient capacity to process test results. It's a shame we didn't have three months warning in order to get ready...

I have also read reports that deaths of some older people with all the symptoms but no confirmatory test are being written up as "natural death".

Got to wonder whether the under reporting of both infections and deaths is rather convenient for the government.

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By *atandasmileMan
over a year ago

Edinburgh

"How many people have died of the flu this winter...or are the figures distorted....just saying "

Not sure for this year, but the average is around 20,000 per year. There's a fair bit of variation in that, going from around 2,000 to around 30,000.

Clearly we don't have as many deaths as that *yet* from covid 19 - even if there is under-reporting going on. That's not quite the same as saying we won't have more deaths as a result of covid 19 and it is certainly not the same as saying that we wouldn't have more deaths than the flu if we had kept on with "business as usual".

Estimates for the eventual number of covid 19 related deaths in the business as usual scenario were certainly much higher than 20,000: in the order of 300,000 to 500,000 given a mortality rate of just under 1% (50-80% infection of 66 million people times 1%).

A 1% mortality rate seems like a fair guess when there is access to good hospital treatment. Without hospital treatment, however, it looks like the mortality rate is somewhere around 4-5%. And if everyone was sick at once then there wouldn't be enough capacity in our hospitals for even most sufferers, pushing the number of deaths up higher: around 1 to 2 million people.

Of course we haven't sat around doing nothing so I think the numbers aren't likely to be anywhere near that large. But those are the sorts of *reasonable worst case* numbers that the decision makers would have been playing with when deciding whether and how to act.

The government's sort of unofficial target is around 20,000 deaths. At that they would consider that we, as a nation, have done a good job. And then it would be comparable to seasonal flu. But only after a lot of effort.

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By *atandasmileMan
over a year ago

Edinburgh

"Erm even I know that it will take time after implementing this to get any real show... and as they are not testing people self isolating unless NHS staff..how do they know "

This all seems to stem from one interview (this morning, I think) with one epidemiologist. Admittedly with a very respected and influential epidemiologist but he was quite cagey about the statement himself, giving quite a few caveats including some of the problems that you've just raised. So take with the obligatory pinch of salt.

He knew full-well that the number of confirmed cases is a gross under-reporting of the true number. He said that we therefore have to look at proxy measurements. He cited the number of deaths, which are less prone to under-reporting but lag behind by quite a lot, and the number of hospital admissions which is more immediate but less certain than the number of deaths (but more certain than the number of cases). There has a been a slow down in the rate of increase in those, if you can follow that

. That's a sign that we're coming off the exponential growth curve.

But only a potential sign: it could just be daily statistical fluctuation at this stage, or it might be that people are less likely to want to go to hospital just now. Or something else. That's the trouble with proxy measurements - you can't be sure.

Anyway, there's a bit of hope in there and I guess the papers seized on that. And I hope that the hope is justified.

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By *ionelhutzMan
over a year ago

liverpool

"The numbers are being kept low by not testing people even when they have all the symptoms, and not performing routine tests even on health workers. It is quite obvious that there are insufficient test kits available, or insufficient capacity to process test results. It's a shame we didn't have three months warning in order to get ready...

I have also read reports that deaths of some older people with all the symptoms but no confirmatory test are being written up as "natural death".

Got to wonder whether the under reporting of both infections and deaths is rather convenient for the government."

Cynic.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Maybe by saying it's proving to be more effective than they'd anticipated, they might find mor more people comply, especially if they realise that the sooner they do, the less time we'll have to do it for.

Just a thought

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By *anejohnkent6263Couple
over a year ago

canterbury

Maybe the government's of the world want control of the people

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