FabSwingers.com forum: Almost 90% jabbed!

By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..? "
if the recent paper that delta transmits the same regardless is shown to be true, I wonder if herd immunity goes out the window .... ?

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By *naswingdressWoman
over a year ago

Manchester (she/her)

Don't know. Remains to be seen. The extent and severity of infections after full vaccination still being measured.

Herd immunity usually relies on those who are susceptible being surrounded by those who are not. Unfortunately... schools are a place where the susceptible gather.

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By *ackformore100Man
over a year ago

Tin town

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..? "

Can herd immunity ever be achieved for this virus? Or is it just some placatory rhetoric.? Or poor science? I'm guessing with the daily infections increasing the answer is edging closer to a no....

Add those who've had natural immunity by catching it over the last 2 or 3 months too? ... So 30k a day for 60 days to those jabbed with a vaccine... We are up at way over 90 % and still infections are going up...

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By *ohnj21Man
over a year ago

Leeds

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..?

Can herd immunity ever be achieved for this virus? Or is it just some placatory rhetoric.? Or poor science? I'm guessing with the daily infections increasing the answer is edging closer to a no....

90 percent of adults 76 2 jabs

Not of population were about 60 percent of population double jabbed thats your

1 to 18 years are big part of population.

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By *igNick1381Man
over a year ago

BRIDGEND

(Telegraph, Aug 10): The Delta variant has wrecked any chance of herd immunity, a panel of experts including the head of the Oxford vaccine team said as they called for an end to mass testing so Britain can start to live with Covid.

Scientists said it was time to accept that there was no way of stopping the virus spreading through the entire population, and monitoring people with mild symptoms was no longer helpful.

Prof Andrew Pollard, who led the Oxford vaccine team, said it was clear that the Delta variant could infect people who had been vaccinated, which made herd immunity impossible to reach even with high vaccine uptake.

If you want to read the article the title is:

Delta variant has wrecked hopes of herd immunity, warn scientists

Sarah Knapton

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By *ohnj21Man
over a year ago

Leeds

So herd population is about population not adults only

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By *izandpaulCouple
over a year ago

merseyside

I would be interested to see more information of the poor folks who are dying with Covid within the 28 days.

Not trying to trivialise the real loss for their families but like us, was the family member coming to the end of their natural life and Covid pushed them over the edge.

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By *ylonSlutTV/TS
over a year ago

Durham

"I would be interested to see more information of the poor folks who are dying with Covid within the 28 days.

Not trying to trivialise the real loss for their families but like us, was the family member coming to the end of their natural life and Covid pushed them over the edge.

Sites like the traveling tabby site will tell you the ages of people who are dying within 28 days. Since the vaccines have been rolled out the age profile has dropped considerably. Also people who are younger and fitter can sometimes survive longer than 28 days before succumbing to covid.

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By *ynecplCouple
over a year ago

Newcastle upon Tyne

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..? "

I thought that the scientific group had said that herd immunity is not possible with this virus hence the possible need for boosters.

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By *an hjCouple
over a year ago

Stowmarket

Testing positive is not necessarily a good indication of how well things are going, you can test positive and it have no real effect on you, personally I look at the hospital admissions, they are a lot lower, and an NHS spokesperson says that they are not staying in as long.

My opinion, please don't shoot me.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Testing positive is not necessarily a good indication of how well things are going, you can test positive and it have no real effect on you, personally I look at the hospital admissions, they are a lot lower, and an NHS spokesperson says that they are not staying in as long.

My opinion, please don't shoot me."

No it's a good opinion

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By *alcon43Woman
over a year ago

Paisley

How many have long covid?

In the space of two days I heard of three people who tested positive. Two of them have had vaccinations.

They should be looking at the people who are not getting infected to see why that is.

With the opening up of pubs, clubs, theatres, etc this virus is still going to affect more people. People are not using hand sanitiser and cleaning trolleys the way they did the start of lockdown.

Now they are expecting a flu epidemic this winter. So much for our new ‘normal’.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"How many have long covid?

In the space of two days I heard of three people who tested positive. Two of them have had vaccinations.

They should be looking at the people who are not getting infected to see why that is.

With the opening up of pubs, clubs, theatres, etc this virus is still going to affect more people. People are not using hand sanitiser and cleaning trolleys the way they did the start of lockdown.

Now they are expecting a flu epidemic this winter. So much for our new ‘normal’."

There's literally no point in cleaning trolleys etc. Never has been.

It's long since been proven that almost all spread is airborne, not from surfaces.

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By *inky_couple2020Couple
over a year ago

North West

"How many have long covid?

In the space of two days I heard of three people who tested positive. Two of them have had vaccinations.

They should be looking at the people who are not getting infected to see why that is.

With the opening up of pubs, clubs, theatres, etc this virus is still going to affect more people. People are not using hand sanitiser and cleaning trolleys the way they did the start of lockdown.

Now they are expecting a flu epidemic this winter. So much for our new ‘normal’."

The ONS data from April this year states 1.1 million people reporting symptoms of long Covid.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021

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By *ik MMan
over a year ago

Lancashire

"How many have long covid?

In the space of two days I heard of three people who tested positive. Two of them have had vaccinations.

They should be looking at the people who are not getting infected to see why that is.

With the opening up of pubs, clubs, theatres, etc this virus is still going to affect more people. People are not using hand sanitiser and cleaning trolleys the way they did the start of lockdown.

Now they are expecting a flu epidemic this winter. So much for our new ‘normal’.

The ONS data from April this year states 1.1 million people reporting symptoms of long Covid.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021"

I’m not disputing the numbers but how many of these are self diagnosed? Something I’ve noticed for a while now is the same demographic who assume every one of these cases to be true also assume the yellow card scheme to be a sham due to self reporting.

It’s always good to remember that there have been more insurance claims for lost Louis Vuitton luggage submitted than LV have ever produced

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"How many have long covid?

In the space of two days I heard of three people who tested positive. Two of them have had vaccinations.

They should be looking at the people who are not getting infected to see why that is.

With the opening up of pubs, clubs, theatres, etc this virus is still going to affect more people. People are not using hand sanitiser and cleaning trolleys the way they did the start of lockdown.

Now they are expecting a flu epidemic this winter. So much for our new ‘normal’.

The ONS data from April this year states 1.1 million people reporting symptoms of long Covid.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1april2021"

Have you actually read that?

It's extrapolated from only 20,000 people surveyed.

And it's definition for 'long Covid' are very wide. Anyone experiencing as headache, cough, tiredness for just 5 weeks.

It's very poor science indeed.

Post viral fatigue is very common and is nothing new.

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

Herd immunity is a notional term that doesn't sit at 1 fixed pkint of population immunisation. It is very much determined by context, as most things in life are.

With measles, for example, the UK did have herd immunity nationally, until the antivax movement, driven by the fraudulent, disgraced Wakefield, caused immunity to drop.

It is feasible to have pockets of, or near national herd immunity but if there are other pockets without this, then the infection can still prevail and spread around, sustaining itself.

Other aspects of the context are determined by things such as the virus, how it may change, its levels of infectivity, how it may overcome vaccine immunity etc.

We know that there are breakthrough infections, though these can be with reduced levels of infectivity. The first increases the notional herd immunity point, the second tempers it somewhat.

If very precise measurements are acquired, more accurate statistical modelling can help to determine when herd immunity may be achieved.

A steady stream of incoming travellers without immunity, may be enough to sustain the virus's existence amongst us. Pockets of low vaccination density, low adherence to prevention measures and other factors could all help to push the ever elusive point of reaching herd immunity further away from us.

Very closed communities could get it but naturally it could remain more difficult to reach.

Sustaining strong barriers that reduce the possibility of people infecting others, will make the job easier.

We don't know what variants may come along, nor how our government may restrict travellers from entering the country. Nor whether those who are hesitant may increasingly decide to immunise themselves. Vaccines will also change, with upcoming vaccines creating much reduced infectivity levels, when breakthrough infections occur.

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

"I would be interested to see more information of the poor folks who are dying with Covid within the 28 days.

Not trying to trivialise the real loss for their families but like us, was the family member coming to the end of their natural life and Covid pushed them over the edge.

In the first wave, the average loss of life per person was 10 years. Even then, the tragic losses were of people with a very substantial part of their lives still to be lived.

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By *inky_couple2020Couple
over a year ago

North West

The 20,000 people surveyed were not the only individuals who contributed data towards the figure of 1.1 million. The 20,000 were people with clinically diagnosed Covid (i.e positive PCR test). Other data included in the analysis was people who had symptoms of Covid in the period where testing was not widely available.

There is an updated version of this a analysis, dated 1st July 2021

and to quote:

"This analysis was based on 313,216 responses to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey (CIS) collected over the four-week period ending 6 June 2021. The CIS covers people aged two years or over living in private households in the UK. Self-reported long COVID was defined as symptoms persisting for more than four weeks after the first suspected coronavirus (COVID-19) infection that were not explained by something else. Parents and carers answered survey questions on behalf of children aged under 12 years."

I'm not venturing any opinion on any of this. It's the best data for numbers reporting long COVID, which is what a previous poster asked for.

The updated ONS info from 1st July is here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/prevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectionintheuk/1july2021

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By *exyFusionCouple
over a year ago

Near to you

My opinion, please don't shoot me."

This is bang on! Admissions and deaths are way lower: Delta is more transmissible and we may still get it, but the vaccines are lessening the severity

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

"The 20,000 people surveyed were not the only individuals who contributed data towards the figure of 1.1 million. The 20,000 were people with clinically diagnosed Covid (i.e positive PCR test). Other data included in the analysis was people who had symptoms of Covid in the period where testing was not widely available.

There is an updated version of this a analysis, dated 1st July 2021

and to quote:

I'm not venturing any opinion on any of this. It's the best data for numbers reporting long COVID, which is what a previous poster asked for.

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By *ustforfun49Man
over a year ago

chesterfield

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..? "

The vaccine does not stop you from getting covid but stops more people going to hospital.

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By *oncupiscent_dreamMan
over a year ago

City

Depends how many were given astrazeneca and Jansen vector vaccines.

Ireland just cancelled all orders of them vaccines. They simply are not working against delta or lambda.

Pfizer does a bit better. And moderna does the best.

It's perfectly possible to stop covid, but probably not along this path. People will just have to accept it's gonna kill a thousand a month in the UK Uk until a vaccine made for multiple variants comes out to help.

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By *ackformore100Man
over a year ago

Tin town

My opinion, please don't shoot me.

This is bang on! Admissions and deaths are way lower: Delta is more transmissible and we may still get it, but the vaccines are lessening the severity

Here's the thing though... You can read numbers in many ways...

Admissions...low point of.. 80 on 16 may. And has been rising steadily since to highpoint of 880 on 10 August (the last date data is available for) that's an 1100% increase. Is it a worry? Probably not right now.... Will it be if the last 3 months trend continues? ... Yep...

Deaths?

Rolling 7 days as they seem to like to do...

42 deaths for 7 days to 21 may

635 deaths for 7 days to 15 Aug (last data available)...

An increase of 1400%...

Just a different way to view the data that is available.

Still, jabbing those pesky 16 and 17 year olds should fix it for us.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Depends how many were given astrazeneca and Jansen vector vaccines.

Ireland just cancelled all orders of them vaccines. They simply are not working against delta or lambda.

Pfizer does a bit better. And moderna does the best.

AZ vaccine at 64% effectiveness against the delta variant.

Pfizer at 42% effectiveness in Israel (which only uses the Pfizer vaccine, delta variant dominant)

The BMJ gives Pfizer at 79% and Astra at 60% in the UK

By comparison, the effectiveness of the flu vaccine hovers around 60%

Ireland shifted to Pfizer because it could source supplies of that vaccine.

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By *wistedTooCouple
over a year ago

Frimley

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..?

Can herd immunity ever be achieved for this virus? Or is it just some placatory rhetoric.? Or poor science? I'm guessing with the daily infections increasing the answer is edging closer to a no....

But deaths are down… vaccines don’t kill viruses as much as make them less effective.

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By *wistedTooCouple
over a year ago

Frimley

"Depends how many were given astrazeneca and Jansen vector vaccines.

Ireland just cancelled all orders of them vaccines. They simply are not working against delta or lambda.

Pfizer does a bit better. And moderna does the best.

“Simply” hah. Love how the people on this forum speak about this stuff.

Literallly zero real knowledge on the forum from anyone here (including us) and we all act like authorities on it. Honestly wish this topic was banned now. The virus section of the site is so filled with trash from everyone and quoted numbers with no context etc. Vax or not, none of us here know what the fuck we are talking about.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

As you can still catch covid after having 2 jabs herd immunity will never happen herd protection yes.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"As you can still catch covid after having 2 jabs herd immunity will never happen herd protection yes."

Vaccination is not the only route to herd immunity.

It will happen naturally anyway, and vaccination will help.

Herd immunity is inevitable eventually with a virus that is as transmissible as Covid. To think otherwise is folly.

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..?

The vaccine does not stop you from getting covid but stops more people going to hospital. "

The vaccines may help to stop you getting infected and certainly they minimise the severity of the illness and can reduce your infectiousness to others. There's no guarantee for any one single individual but that's the overview of large numbers of people. We have prevented tens of thousands of deaths in the UK alone already, by the vaccines uptake.

Without restrictions, vaccines are the easy way to reduce the impact on our country, including the NHS, allowing it to reopen more and to deal with the crisis of other conditions' backlog.

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By *ohnj21Man
over a year ago

Leeds

"As you can still catch covid after having 2 jabs herd immunity will never happen herd protection yes.

Vaccination is not the only route to herd immunity.

It will happen naturally anyway, and vaccination will help.

Herd immunity is inevitable eventually with a virus that is as transmissible as Covid. To think otherwise is folly."

What's your evidence against thinking otherwise

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By *ohnj21Man
over a year ago

Leeds

"As you can still catch covid after having 2 jabs herd immunity will never happen herd protection yes.

Vaccination is not the only route to herd immunity.

It will happen naturally anyway, and vaccination will help.

Herd immunity is inevitable eventually with a virus that is as transmissible as Covid. To think otherwise is folly."

What's, the evidence not to think otherwise

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By *ackformore100Man
over a year ago

Tin town

"As you can still catch covid after having 2 jabs herd immunity will never happen herd protection yes.

Vaccination is not the only route to herd immunity.

It will happen naturally anyway, and vaccination will help.

Herd immunity is inevitable eventually with a virus that is as transmissible as Covid. To think otherwise is folly."

I don't have enough knowledge of epidemiology.. But I can read the official numbers easily enough to know number a is larger than number b.

Herd immunity... resistance to the spread of an infectious disease within a population that is based on pre-existing immunity of a high proportion of individuals as a result of previous infection or vaccination.

Question.. Is there any evidence yet that there is resistance to the spread of covid infection? I mean that would imply numbers of infections going down and not up. Even in Israel which I think it's accurate to say is most jabbed... The rates of infections are still on the up rather than down. Who knows.... It may happen. Perhaps it's too early to say. Let's hope it happens. But right now the evidence of increasing vaccines and increasing infections... isn't supportive.

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By *ewcouplemidsCouple
over a year ago

walsall

"As you can still catch covid after having 2 jabs herd immunity will never happen herd protection yes.

Vaccination is not the only route to herd immunity.

It will happen naturally anyway, and vaccination will help.

Herd immunity is inevitable eventually with a virus that is as transmissible as Covid. To think otherwise is folly.

I don't have enough knowledge of epidemiology.. But I can read the official numbers easily enough to know number a is larger than number b.

Shouldn't matter how many infections there are as long as the death figures remain low or fall

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By *ackformore100Man
over a year ago

Tin town

"As you can still catch covid after having 2 jabs herd immunity will never happen herd protection yes.

Vaccination is not the only route to herd immunity.

It will happen naturally anyway, and vaccination will help.

Herd immunity is inevitable eventually with a virus that is as transmissible as Covid. To think otherwise is folly.

I don't have enough knowledge of epidemiology.. But I can read the official numbers easily enough to know number a is larger than number b.

Shouldn't matter how many infections there are as long as the death figures remain low or fall"

Well.. If you ignore any long covid consequences and any extra burden on NHS resources, I'd agree with that. I do question the need to ignore avoidable illness or death though. I mean we make a massive drama of road deaths of 1750 a year and continually strive to reduce that number. So some diligence to reduce avoidable deaths and symptoms from covid which are currently about 15 times that number and increasing doesn't seem unreasonable.

But that's not really the point I was trying to make. Which was in response to whether herd immunity is achievable or not and any evidence that supports such a notion, in the UK, or anywhere else.

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By *ig1gaz1Man
over a year ago

bradford

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..? "

the amount of times the gov has manipulated the numbers to suit them.

England

Doses given

73.6M

Fully vaccinated

33.9M

% of population fully vaccinated

60.5%

United Kingdom

Doses given

87.9M

Fully vaccinated

40.6M

% of population fully vaccinated

60.9%

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By *ohnj21Man
over a year ago

Leeds

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..?

the amount of times the gov has manipulated the numbers to suit them.

England

Doses given

73.6M

Fully vaccinated

33.9M

% of population fully vaccinated

60.5%

United Kingdom

Doses given

87.9M

Fully vaccinated

40.6M

% of population fully vaccinated

60.9%"

Agree population percentage

Not adult population should be published

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By *ohnj21Man
over a year ago

Leeds

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..?

the amount of times the gov has manipulated the numbers to suit them.

England

Doses given

73.6M

Fully vaccinated

33.9M

% of population fully vaccinated

60.5%

United Kingdom

Doses given

87.9M

Fully vaccinated

40.6M

% of population fully vaccinated

60.9%"

Agree population percentage

Not adult population should be published

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By *ir-spunk-alotMan
over a year ago

Southern England

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..? "

An expert recently said its pointless to aim for herd immunity as the delta Variant evades transmission of vaccines.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"According to the gov.uk stats, 89.4% of people have had their first jab (second jab is at 76% but presumably most who have had one will go for their second).

This is fantastic news, but with 25/30k new cases per day, will it be enough to achieve herd immunity..?

the amount of times the gov has manipulated the numbers to suit them.

England

Doses given

73.6M

Fully vaccinated

33.9M

% of population fully vaccinated

60.5%

United Kingdom

Doses given

87.9M

Fully vaccinated

40.6M

% of population fully vaccinated

60.9%"

No no the gov.uk site I was looking at does say "adult population".

The "people" bit in my post was just me being hasty and not proofreading properly

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Wow amazing !! Can’t believe how many got vaxxed!! Yay! X

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By *naswingdressWoman
over a year ago

Manchester (she/her)

"Wow amazing !! Can’t believe how many got vaxxed!! Yay! X

It's an incredible achievement. We should be proud.

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By *heNaturistCoupleCouple
over a year ago

crewe

The Indian variant has wherever it's landed has made all other variants extinct!.

From an evolutionary point it's natural selection at work in the virus world.

With vaccine roll outs being very high it's only a matter of time before evolutionary pressure produces a variant that bypasses the vaccine completely,I think it will be many decades before this novel virus finds stability and normal service is resumed.

Just our opinion.

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By *uckandbunnyCouple
over a year ago

In your bed

"The Indian variant has wherever it's landed has made all other variants extinct!.

From an evolutionary point it's natural selection at work in the virus world.

Just our opinion."

To be honest normal service is pretty much resumed now.

Sure there is a new virus on the block, but as a nation we are very much living with it and getting on with life.

Yes there is tragedy as some fall foul of the virus, but day to day the high level of vaccine take up has allowed us to resume as normal a life as possible.

The virus is not the only thing evolving,our natural immunity can also develop and with the vaccine to boost it gives us a great chance of moving forwards.

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By *heNaturistCoupleCouple
over a year ago

crewe

"The Indian variant has wherever it's landed has made all other variants extinct!.

From an evolutionary point it's natural selection at work in the virus world.

Just our opinion.

To be honest normal service is pretty much resumed now.

Sure there is a new virus on the block, but as a nation we are very much living with it and getting on with life.

Yes there is tragedy as some fall foul of the virus, but day to day the high level of vaccine take up has allowed us to resume as normal a life as possible.

The virus is not the only thing evolving,our natural immunity can also develop and with the vaccine to boost it gives us a great chance of moving forwards. "

I think an ebb and flow will be the new norm, I'm expecting a variant that will bypass the vaccine completely within a year, with that will come lockdown restrictions once again as hospitals fill up and then we'll go through the whole process of revaccination and opening and on and on the circus will go.

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