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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson" Ferguson is an absolute joke of an expert. Resigned from SAGE after breaking his own advice, got the mad cow disease massively wrong then did the same with swine flu and covid. Biggest peddler of scaremongering around. I genuinely despair at those who blindly follow the cretin as if he is the gold standard in epidemiology when he doesn't even have a single medical qualification. | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson" If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson" If he is, why are you furthering what he's saying..? | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country." Totally this.. 
It's the equivalent of Getting too close to the fire by accident then putting one hand in and then two..
It's negligence beyond incompetence.. | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If he is, why are you furthering what he's saying..?" I’m not. Matt (Liar) Hancock is saying on the TV today it’s 40%. What’s the betting it’s say 10% Spin | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. Totally this..
It's the equivalent of Getting too close to the fire by accident then putting one hand in and then two..
It's negligence beyond incompetence.." | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. Totally this..
It's the equivalent of Getting too close to the fire by accident then putting one hand in and then two..
It's negligence beyond incompetence.."On this we agree! | |||
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"So many experts in this room. Makes me feel so much safer "What a very helpful addition to the discussion. | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. Totally this..
It's the equivalent of Getting too close to the fire by accident then putting one hand in and then two..
It's negligence beyond incompetence.."They know exactly what they are doing. Its all about trade unfortunately. Profit before safety. | |||
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"So many experts in this room. Makes me feel so much safer "As opposed to the 'experts 'running the country? | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country." Of course- we should have all listened to you ! This virus is ripping across the world but maybe you could advise those, for example in Japan. All you do is spout your hatred for a government who have rolled out a vaccine program that is the envy of the world- no doubt you were happy to get your jab! Such a shame Boris isn’t on fab - he could have benefited so much from the advise of people like you | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. Of course- we should have all listened to you ! This virus is ripping across the world but maybe you could advise those, for example in Japan. All you do is spout your hatred for a government who have rolled out a vaccine program that is the envy of the world- no doubt you were happy to get your jab! Such a shame Boris isn’t on fab - he could have benefited so much from the advise of people like you " Have you not seen what's happened? Yes initially it was something new, giving the benefit of the doubt in the government ignoring Op Cygnus and not locking down sooner etc as all hat made mistakes.. The fact is the lessons learned in the fatality figures of the first wave were not applied to the second, that's beyond negligence.. Factor in letting 42,000 people return from India and not enforcing isolation which was as all the world saw a disaster and we are now on the cusp of wave 3 even with the vaccination programme which has been a massive plus.. | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. Of course- we should have all listened to you ! This virus is ripping across the world but maybe you could advise those, for example in Japan. All you do is spout your hatred for a government who have rolled out a vaccine program that is the envy of the world- no doubt you were happy to get your jab! Such a shame Boris isn’t on fab - he could have benefited so much from the advise of people like you Have you not seen what's happened? Yes initially it was something new, giving the benefit of the doubt in the government ignoring Op Cygnus and not locking down sooner etc as all hat made mistakes.. The fact is the lessons learned in the fatality figures of the first wave were not applied to the second, that's beyond negligence.. Factor in letting 42,000 people return from India and not enforcing isolation which was as all the world saw a disaster and we are now on the cusp of wave 3 even with the vaccination programme which has been a massive plus.. " Yup. Initial missteps, fine. It's long since old. And Polly was making accurate predictions way back. | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. Of course- we should have all listened to you ! This virus is ripping across the world but maybe you could advise those, for example in Japan. All you do is spout your hatred for a government who have rolled out a vaccine program that is the envy of the world- no doubt you were happy to get your jab! Such a shame Boris isn’t on fab - he could have benefited so much from the advise of people like you Have you not seen what's happened? Yes initially it was something new, giving the benefit of the doubt in the government ignoring Op Cygnus and not locking down sooner etc as all hat made mistakes.. The fact is the lessons learned in the fatality figures of the first wave were not applied to the second, that's beyond negligence.. Factor in letting 42,000 people return from India and not enforcing isolation which was as all the world saw a disaster and we are now on the cusp of wave 3 even with the vaccination programme which has been a massive plus.. Yup. Initial missteps, fine. It's long since old. And Polly was making accurate predictions way back." She was yes.. | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. Of course- we should have all listened to you ! This virus is ripping across the world but maybe you could advise those, for example in Japan. All you do is spout your hatred for a government who have rolled out a vaccine program that is the envy of the world- no doubt you were happy to get your jab! Such a shame Boris isn’t on fab - he could have benefited so much from the advise of people like you " Ismnt he it weird how those who defend him completely ignore what happened pre vaccine? | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. Of course- we should have all listened to you ! This virus is ripping across the world but maybe you could advise those, for example in Japan. All you do is spout your hatred for a government who have rolled out a vaccine program that is the envy of the world- no doubt you were happy to get your jab! Such a shame Boris isn’t on fab - he could have benefited so much from the advise of people like you Ismnt he it weird how those who defend him completely ignore what happened pre vaccine?" Yeah but it was different and unavoidable see... | |||
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" Ismnt he it weird how those who defend him completely ignore what happened pre vaccine?" All the information and strategies that the WHO had in place were thrown out the window because SAGE favoured the Chinese method. This was the first mistake that led to a monumental clusterfuck of a campaign, and was never going to work whilst we remained a democratic nation. Where was Boris and his band of experts then ? These people are culpable for every mistake made as well as the successes after. | |||
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" Ismnt he it weird how those who defend him completely ignore what happened pre vaccine? All the information and strategies that the WHO had in place were thrown out the window because SAGE favoured the Chinese method. This was the first mistake that led to a monumental clusterfuck of a campaign, and was never going to work whilst we remained a democratic nation. Where was Boris and his band of experts then ? These people are culpable for every mistake made as well as the successes after. " | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country." I do agree it was avoidable and should have been prevented by our govt. But I also think the fuckers who flew back and didn't test or isolate share the blame. The ones who dodged the red list by flying back via dubai or fra kfurt or Amsterdam knowingly circumventing the need to quarantine. But yes the govt were worse than useless with this avoidable situation. Just as in the 1st and 2nd waves | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson If the indications are correct, then there is good cause to be scared. There is also good cause to be burning with rage over the government stupidity that allowed this variant to be imported into the country by many thousands of travellers without even the slightest attempt at biosecurity measures. First wave last year - avoidable but I'll accept the argument of incompetent governance. Second wave - shouldn't have happened, government that is so stupid that they learned nothing whatsoever from the first wave. Third wave - why are the people not putting this criminal government on trial and getting someone with the slightest hint of competence to run the country. I do agree it was avoidable and should have been prevented by our govt. But I also think the fuckers who flew back and didn't test or isolate share the blame. The ones who dodged the red list by flying back via dubai or fra kfurt or Amsterdam knowingly circumventing the need to quarantine. But yes the govt were worse than useless with this avoidable situation. Just as in the 1st and 2nd waves " Agreed. It's both. | |||
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"He's 1 person with expertise likely above that of 99% of commenters here decrying him - who I note haven't specified their own statistical modelling figures. He's not the sole expert who has produced advice and data for the government, but has delivered well, despite criticism. I take my data from peer reviewed credible publications, not the media. From that link, he was quoted as stating 30% more transmissable, possibly upto 100%. Since that publication, the government have quoted 40%, so within the range. This is science, where constant refinement, improvement and more data produces greater accuracy and more valid results. Preliminary projections are better than an absence of anything, of course - when you qualify your limitations. Anyone thinking that this and other specialists' modelling abilities haven't progressed remarkably, must be well outside of this area of work and expertise. " Look at his past form on viral modelling and tell us all how he ranks higher than others. There's been a plethora of high ranked and far better qualified experts who questioned his modelling algorithm from the off. Its was his opinion and suggestion to follow an entirely different plan to that of the WHO,despite the warnings from others. The results of his previous models produced wildly inaccurate results: the prediction of 200 million deaths worldwide from bird flu in 2005, when just 282 people died between 2003 and 2009, without locking down economies. That model had serious flaws. He used an undocumented, highly complex, 13-year-old computer code for a feared influenza pandemic. This isn't about any of us knowing better, it's about reading further into the questions being asked by other experts, and why those same people were ignored. The BMJ and Lancet both published articles regarding the decisions to follow Fergusons choices, I'd regard them as reputable sources. | |||
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"So below a link where he is saying Delta is up to 100% more transmissible. This guy is worrying and trying to scare us. https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/04/delta-variant-transmissible-uk-covid-lockdown-neil-ferguson" Maybe he is telling us something indirectly like get ready for the side effects | |||
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"Fergusson hasn’t been that far away from the mark to be fair. In March last year it was his report (Report 9 - still available to read on Imperial College Website) that finally got through to the government. Have a read - then judge him" He is hardly going to get anything other than a glowing endorsement from ICO, he's their golden boy. Now if you want to look at his historical predictions then might I suggest this ? https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-questions-that-neil-ferguson-should-be-asked | |||
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"Fergusson hasn’t been that far away from the mark to be fair. In March last year it was his report (Report 9 - still available to read on Imperial College Website) that finally got through to the government. Have a read - then judge him He is hardly going to get anything other than a glowing endorsement from ICO, he's their golden boy. Now if you want to look at his historical predictions then might I suggest this ? https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-questions-that-neil-ferguson-should-be-asked " That's an interesting article. It perhaps explains why Boris seems to be sceptical of the scientists feeding into him. | |||
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"It’s difficult to judge Ferguson on the U.K. figures because we did lockdown so can’t really say what if... The only European country that rejected his modelling was Sweden. Now Sweden has faired badly compared to its Nordic neighbours however if you look at the Uppsala university predictions based on Ferguson’s modelling you can see that the modelling appears to be way out. " But we can look back on his previous figures and see a very distinctive pattern in his predictions. | |||
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"So many experts in this room. Makes me feel so much safer "Half the experts think government has been incompetent and should have imposed stricter controls and done more to close boarders whilst the other half are split between those who think it’s all just an over reaction or those who think it’s a global conspiracy to control and depopulate... a conspiracy that would require a level of competence never previously displayed by any national government let alone all of them working together...! | |||
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"It’s difficult to judge Ferguson on the U.K. figures because we did lockdown so can’t really say what if... The only European country that rejected his modelling was Sweden. Now Sweden has faired badly compared to its Nordic neighbours however if you look at the Uppsala university predictions based on Ferguson’s modelling you can see that the modelling appears to be way out. " The first thing all modellers need to know is “all models are wrong but some are useful”. George Box | |||
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"So many experts in this room. Makes me feel so much safer
Half the experts think government has been incompetent and should have imposed stricter controls and done more to close boarders whilst the other half are split between those who think it’s all just an over reaction or those who think it’s a global conspiracy to control and depopulate... a conspiracy that would require a level of competence never previously displayed by any national government let alone all of them working together...! "But what if they were all aliens...? | |||
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"So many experts in this room. Makes me feel so much safer
Half the experts think government has been incompetent and should have imposed stricter controls and done more to close boarders whilst the other half are split between those who think it’s all just an over reaction or those who think it’s a global conspiracy to control and depopulate... a conspiracy that would require a level of competence never previously displayed by any national government let alone all of them working together...! "1% of children catching Covid are currently being hospitalised. That may not seem a lot but with the Delta variant being much more transmissible- especially in a school setting- we are going to see a lot more children being hospitalised. Now - ultimately they will have a greater chance of surviving hospital than older patients but it is going to have a profound effect on their futures with potential co morbidities( not to mention the extra pressure on the NHS). It’s doubling every 7-10 days. Vaccine coverage is no where high enough yet to block further transmission. There are 6 weeks of school term left……..with very little mitigation against. The question is are we going to allow huge numbers of kids be exposed to this virus and Long Covid obviously deserves a mention too. | |||
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"So many experts in this room. Makes me feel so much safer
Half the experts think government has been incompetent and should have imposed stricter controls and done more to close boarders whilst the other half are split between those who think it’s all just an over reaction or those who think it’s a global conspiracy to control and depopulate... a conspiracy that would require a level of competence never previously displayed by any national government let alone all of them working together...!
1% of children catching Covid are currently being hospitalised. That may not seem a lot but with the Delta variant being much more transmissible- especially in a school setting- we are going to see a lot more children being hospitalised.
Now - ultimately they will have a greater chance of surviving hospital than older patients but it is going to have a profound effect on their futures with potential co morbidities( not to mention the extra pressure on the NHS).
It’s doubling every 7-10 days. Vaccine coverage is no where high enough yet to block further transmission. There are 6 weeks of school term left……..with very little mitigation against.
The question is are we going to allow huge numbers of kids be exposed to this virus and Long Covid obviously deserves a mention too."This is misleading information. PHE have clarified that whilst there's a small rise in children being hospitised, they are there primarily with non covid related injuries, but testing positive , ergo they are in hospital WITH covid, not FROM covid. There's no evidence or suggestion from any reputable source to substantiate this theory that a huge amount of kids will be suffering because of any variant, where are you digging this up from ? | |||
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