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"At last, someone voices common sense. We think the same way. It's not fair but the vulnerable need to take extra precautions, and let the rest of the country move forwards. This virus is going to be around for a very long time, medics know how to treat it much better these days and much more successfully than when Covid first arrived, so let's just try and move on." They can't, the testing system is in a complete mess and the track and trace system is not much better.. And some are not isolating when positive etc.. Care staff are still paid a pittance which means they have to work in up to several different care homes thus increasing the possibility of spread if asymptomatic.. There was an opportunity to have the means and resources from the government and the will of the minority to do their bit to perhaps have put us in the position where this new set of restrictions albeit not like before becomes the normal till perhaps spring but we've missed that .. | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start " | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start " then get a, testing system up and running that works. Number one priority surely.we,seem incapable of doing that. Italy have a system that gives, results, within 30 mins. So what is, our problem. We, were promised a million tests, a, day back in march and April. Then Boris said we, would ramp it up to 2 million. We are, falling woefully short of those figures. Did they just think of a number then boast it out to the country to try and hoodwink us, all. They have had 6 months and look where we are heading. Back to square one. What a, balls up this lot are,. If they had got this bit right we now wouldn't be going where we are... right back into the arms of this virus. What a way to win any war | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start then get a, testing system up and running that works. Number one priority surely.we,seem incapable of doing that. Italy have a system that gives, results, within 30 mins. So what is, our problem. We, were promised a million tests, a, day back in march and April. Then Boris said we, would ramp it up to 2 million. We are, falling woefully short of those figures. Did they just think of a number then boast it out to the country to try and hoodwink us, all. They have had 6 months and look where we are heading. Back to square one. What a, balls up this lot are,. If they had got this bit right we now wouldn't be going where we are... right back into the arms of this virus. What a way to win any war " It has to be arrogance to keep promising and failing to deliver time and time again. I just hope the electorate has a long memory! | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start " I don't think there is anyone who thinks we shouldn't be trying to return to some level of normality but one major concern I have is the whole concept of shielding the vulnerable. What I keep seeing from a certain group of people is that the vulnerable will have to take extra precautions etc. which on the surface seems like a sensible idea but in reality is more like the 'vulnerable' become prisoners in their own homes, denied the right to a normal life so the rest of us can go about our merry way unfettered by the responsibility of having to think about someone who is not ourselves. I'm just not that selfish I'm afraid, I do not have an issue with sanitising, with wearing masks in public places and not meeting in large groups if it means that vulnerable people do not have to isolate. What I would like is to see the government let the people with experience of such things, the public health officials et al, take control of the est, track and trace system and make it fit for purpose. I don't need it to be 'world beating' or whatever the bullshit phrase of the day is to pacify idiots, I just want it to work. The private sector has shown it is incapable of doing it so it's time to let the experts take over. Then, once we have a test, track and trace system that works, we can look at returning to normality. | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start I don't think there is anyone who thinks we shouldn't be trying to return to some level of normality but one major concern I have is the whole concept of shielding the vulnerable. What I keep seeing from a certain group of people is that the vulnerable will have to take extra precautions etc. which on the surface seems like a sensible idea but in reality is more like the 'vulnerable' become prisoners in their own homes, denied the right to a normal life so the rest of us can go about our merry way unfettered by the responsibility of having to think about someone who is not ourselves. I'm just not that selfish I'm afraid, I do not have an issue with sanitising, with wearing masks in public places and not meeting in large groups if it means that vulnerable people do not have to isolate. What I would like is to see the government let the people with experience of such things, the public health officials et al, take control of the est, track and trace system and make it fit for purpose. I don't need it to be 'world beating' or whatever the bullshit phrase of the day is to pacify idiots, I just want it to work. The private sector has shown it is incapable of doing it so it's time to let the experts take over. Then, once we have a test, track and trace system that works, we can look at returning to normality." This.. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions" Sweden | |||
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"We tried the lockdown earlier in the year and look where we are now. Sure it helps for a short time but we can't spend our lives or the next couples of years in lockdown or with these contradictory restrictions. " Who said lockdown will last for years? | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden" Did Sweden not have any restrictions? | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden" It's getting to the point where I am being forced to disregard anything people who come up with Sweden as an example say. They have almost certainly no knowledge of what Sweden is like either geographically or culturally. Comparing us to Sweden is like comparing a hippopotamus to a rabbit, they are both animals with four legs but... | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Did Sweden not have any restrictions?" Sweden had curfew and social distancing, as such seen a minimal drop in economy and no second spike.However Sweden is a very different country, not as densely populated and possibly more crucially binge drinking is a social no no | |||
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"Lockdown could never have been a long term solution, they do more harm than good in the long term." It was never a long term solution. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden It's getting to the point where I am being forced to disregard anything people who come up with Sweden as an example say. They have almost certainly no knowledge of what Sweden is like either geographically or culturally. Comparing us to Sweden is like comparing a hippopotamus to a rabbit, they are both animals with four legs but..." This is true. The Sweden myth gets debinked over and over but it pops up in every thread. | |||
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"Lockdown could never have been a long term solution, they do more harm than good in the long term. It was never a long term solution. " In China it lasted 3 months. In Denmark 1 month. Here... well people wanted it to be "normal" so it will drag on till we have a vaccine. | |||
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"Lockdown could never have been a long term solution, they do more harm than good in the long term. It was never a long term solution. In China it lasted 3 months. In Denmark 1 month. Here... well people wanted it to be "normal" so it will drag on till we have a vaccine. " And in China, France, Spain etc they are still seeing rises and fluctuations in infections despite having the tougher restrictions that some people seem to be having wet dreams about introducing here | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Did Sweden not have any restrictions? Sweden had curfew and social distancing, as such seen a minimal drop in economy and no second spike.However Sweden is a very different country, not as densely populated and possibly more crucially binge drinking is a social no no" Sweden had a ban on gatherings on more than 50 people and not allowed to congregate in pubs. In Sweden, people trust the experts to give sound adice and the government trusts people to follow that advice, which they generally do. In the UK the experts give absurd advice and people just do what suits them. | |||
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"Lockdown could never have been a long term solution, they do more harm than good in the long term. It was never a long term solution. In China it lasted 3 months. In Denmark 1 month. Here... well people wanted it to be "normal" so it will drag on till we have a vaccine. And in China, France, Spain etc they are still seeing rises and fluctuations in infections despite having the tougher restrictions that some people seem to be having wet dreams about introducing here" This is like Donald Trump saying New Zealand was out of control because after months of no deaths they suddenly had two. I have my eye on the Canary Islands stats because I have a holiday booked. Their numbers are on the way down whilst ours are on the way up. | |||
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"Lockdown was a solution in the first instance. It did it’s job. We know a lot more about it now and treatments are moving forward at a slow but steady rate. As we know who is vulnerable they should continue to shield with support and everyone else should abide by the lets face it simple measures that assist in slowing its spread. But people seem to believe there is a fundamental right to be shitfaced with your mates. " bang on | |||
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"At last, someone voices common sense. We think the same way. It's not fair but the vulnerable need to take extra precautions, and let the rest of the country move forwards. This virus is going to be around for a very long time, medics know how to treat it much better these days and much more successfully than when Covid first arrived, so let's just try and move on. They can't, the testing system is in a complete mess and the track and trace system is not much better.. And some are not isolating when positive etc.. Care staff are still paid a pittance which means they have to work in up to several different care homes thus increasing the possibility of spread if asymptomatic.. There was an opportunity to have the means and resources from the government and the will of the minority to do their bit to perhaps have put us in the position where this new set of restrictions albeit not like before becomes the normal till perhaps spring but we've missed that .. " The virus doesn't just harm a select few who the op thinks should be shielded. . He believes that it's better his way but doesn't substantiate his feelings, which cannot be the way to form strategies that affect millions of lives. Whilst the virus is doubling in the numbers of people infected every week, letting everyone loose, apart from his imagined select group, would increase the rate of exponential growth, creating an avoidable catastrophe, similar to the USA disaster. He fails to have grasped your points, such as the testing and the tracing systems failures to work now, without throwing a doubling of the numbers of people back towards the 2 or 3 days that we had earlier this year, at systems that can't deliver at today's lower rates. | |||
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" It's not fair but the vulnerable need to take extra precautions, and let the rest of the country move forwards. " Do you think maybe it might not be as simple as this? If it was, why didn't every country just do this from the beginning? For one thing, everything going entirely back to normal for every one else would mean much more virus in communities, making it harder for those vulnerable people to shield. It's very difficult to completely isolate yourself from all human contact, particularly if you have caring needs. And then if everyone else is just 'getting on with things' many more people will get very unpleasantly sick. Even if covid doesn't kill you, it can lead to long term health issues that we don't understand yet - see 'long covid' It will also require more testing, more hospitalisations, more people having to be off work - all things that put pressure on our services. And then if covid is running wild through society, and people understandably don't want to go to work, are employers going to force them? How are pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc going to make a profit if people know there are masses of cases of covid locally? It's not only government instructions that are keeping people from living their normal lives and removing those instructions won't lead to everything going back to normal magically. I wish people could think a little more widely beyond just 'covid doesn't tend to kill people like me so let's crack on' | |||
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" It's not fair but the vulnerable need to take extra precautions, and let the rest of the country move forwards. Do you think maybe it might not be as simple as this? If it was, why didn't every country just do this from the beginning? For one thing, everything going entirely back to normal for every one else would mean much more virus in communities, making it harder for those vulnerable people to shield. It's very difficult to completely isolate yourself from all human contact, particularly if you have caring needs. And then if everyone else is just 'getting on with things' many more people will get very unpleasantly sick. Even if covid doesn't kill you, it can lead to long term health issues that we don't understand yet - see 'long covid' It will also require more testing, more hospitalisations, more people having to be off work - all things that put pressure on our services. And then if covid is running wild through society, and people understandably don't want to go to work, are employers going to force them? How are pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc going to make a profit if people know there are masses of cases of covid locally? It's not only government instructions that are keeping people from living their normal lives and removing those instructions won't lead to everything going back to normal magically. I wish people could think a little more widely beyond just 'covid doesn't tend to kill people like me so let's crack on' " This Allowing the virus to spread exponentially will increase the deaths and more people suffering from 'Long Covid'. It will increase hospitalisations which will add more pressure to our health service. And it will affect the economy as well. | |||
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" It's not fair but the vulnerable need to take extra precautions, and let the rest of the country move forwards. Do you think maybe it might not be as simple as this? If it was, why didn't every country just do this from the beginning? For one thing, everything going entirely back to normal for every one else would mean much more virus in communities, making it harder for those vulnerable people to shield. It's very difficult to completely isolate yourself from all human contact, particularly if you have caring needs. And then if everyone else is just 'getting on with things' many more people will get very unpleasantly sick. Even if covid doesn't kill you, it can lead to long term health issues that we don't understand yet - see 'long covid' It will also require more testing, more hospitalisations, more people having to be off work - all things that put pressure on our services. And then if covid is running wild through society, and people understandably don't want to go to work, are employers going to force them? How are pubs, restaurants, cinemas etc going to make a profit if people know there are masses of cases of covid locally? It's not only government instructions that are keeping people from living their normal lives and removing those instructions won't lead to everything going back to normal magically. I wish people could think a little more widely beyond just 'covid doesn't tend to kill people like me so let's crack on' " You are dead right. People think it's either/or when it's not. | |||
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"I don't think lockdown is the answer and don't think widespread testing is the answer too, if you have symptoms isolate and test the front liners But we (the public) don't have the facts, where and why is it spreading, homes, public places, shops, public transport, schools or all of them. Until we understand this we will continue with a scatter gun approach to dealing with the virus. We (the public) don't know what % of have had the virus, how many had no symptoms and how many seriously ill. We need to get back to some semblance of normality albeit with sensible precautions which will be with us for a long time. " "...don't think widespread testing is the answer too.. ----------- Widespread testing is how some countries in South East Asia have controlled the spread. "...if you have symptoms isolate..." And what happens to those who are infected but have no symptoms ? ? See why social distancing and other restrictions need to be in place? | |||
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"I don't think lockdown is the answer and don't think widespread testing is the answer too, if you have symptoms isolate and test the front liners But we (the public) don't have the facts, where and why is it spreading, homes, public places, shops, public transport, schools or all of them. Until we understand this we will continue with a scatter gun approach to dealing with the virus. We (the public) don't know what % of have had the virus, how many had no symptoms and how many seriously ill. We need to get back to some semblance of normality albeit with sensible precautions which will be with us for a long time. "...don't think widespread testing is the answer too.. ----------- Widespread testing is how some countries in South East Asia have controlled the spread. "...if you have symptoms isolate..." And what happens to those who are infected but have no symptoms ? ? See why social distancing and other restrictions need to be in place?" Germany also did widespread testing and had less than 10% of our fatalities despite have a 15 million greater population... | |||
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"I don't think lockdown is the answer and don't think widespread testing is the answer too, if you have symptoms isolate and test the front liners But we (the public) don't have the facts, where and why is it spreading, homes, public places, shops, public transport, schools or all of them. Until we understand this we will continue with a scatter gun approach to dealing with the virus. We (the public) don't know what % of have had the virus, how many had no symptoms and how many seriously ill. We need to get back to some semblance of normality albeit with sensible precautions which will be with us for a long time. "...don't think widespread testing is the answer too.. ----------- Widespread testing is how some countries in South East Asia have controlled the spread. "...if you have symptoms isolate..." And what happens to those who are infected but have no symptoms ? ? See why social distancing and other restrictions need to be in place?" If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test unless t&t get in touch. We are not geared up for widespread testing. As for SEA most countries went into total lockdown and still are. India for example are really struggling and places like Indonesia and Philippines are still in lockdown. | |||
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"I don't think lockdown is the answer and don't think widespread testing is the answer too, if you have symptoms isolate and test the front liners But we (the public) don't have the facts, where and why is it spreading, homes, public places, shops, public transport, schools or all of them. Until we understand this we will continue with a scatter gun approach to dealing with the virus. We (the public) don't know what % of have had the virus, how many had no symptoms and how many seriously ill. We need to get back to some semblance of normality albeit with sensible precautions which will be with us for a long time. "...don't think widespread testing is the answer too.. ----------- Widespread testing is how some countries in South East Asia have controlled the spread. "...if you have symptoms isolate..." And what happens to those who are infected but have no symptoms ? ? See why social distancing and other restrictions need to be in place? If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test unless t&t get in touch. We are not geared up for widespread testing. As for SEA most countries went into total lockdown and still are. India for example are really struggling and places like Indonesia and Philippines are still in lockdown. " This is the truth. We are one of the richest countries on earth, but we are emptying our treasury fighting the symptoms and not the problem itself. Without widespread testing we've lost the battle before we've even started. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Did Sweden not have any restrictions? Sweden had curfew and social distancing, as such seen a minimal drop in economy and no second spike.However Sweden is a very different country, not as densely populated and possibly more crucially binge drinking is a social no no Sweden had a ban on gatherings on more than 50 people and not allowed to congregate in pubs. In Sweden, people trust the experts to give sound adice and the government trusts people to follow that advice, which they generally do. In the UK the experts give absurd advice and people just do what suits them." | |||
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"You know there actually hasn’t been a impact on cancer treatments right? Scans etc are still happening and have been through out- I had a cancer scare so have experienced this myself. The only cancer treatments that have not been given are ones where it’s deemed less safe to do so. ie because their immune systems will be too compromised. All other non routine And urgent appointments etc have gone ahead. Some operations have been cancelled and some services but these are not life or death situations. Contraception services have gone ahead Sexual health services Operations when it’s been crucial have gone ahead. Drs appointments etc have gone ahead just in a different format Basically the NHS hasn’t been abused for once. So stop with the bull shit that’s read in papers about people not being treated. I’ve lost count of the people asking me if we are back open in my area- we never closed and have been working our arses off throughout " | |||
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"I don't think lockdown is the answer and don't think widespread testing is the answer too, if you have symptoms isolate and test the front liners But we (the public) don't have the facts, where and why is it spreading, homes, public places, shops, public transport, schools or all of them. Until we understand this we will continue with a scatter gun approach to dealing with the virus. We (the public) don't know what % of have had the virus, how many had no symptoms and how many seriously ill. We need to get back to some semblance of normality albeit with sensible precautions which will be with us for a long time. "...don't think widespread testing is the answer too.. ----------- Widespread testing is how some countries in South East Asia have controlled the spread. "...if you have symptoms isolate..." And what happens to those who are infected but have no symptoms ? ? See why social distancing and other restrictions need to be in place? Germany also did widespread testing and had less than 10% of our fatalities despite have a 15 million greater population... " Landmass is greater, less densely populated areas? | |||
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"You know there actually hasn’t been a impact on cancer treatments right? Scans etc are still happening and have been through out- I had a cancer scare so have experienced this myself. The only cancer treatments that have not been given are ones where it’s deemed less safe to do so. ie because their immune systems will be too compromised. All other non routine And urgent appointments etc have gone ahead. Some operations have been cancelled and some services but these are not life or death situations. Contraception services have gone ahead Sexual health services Operations when it’s been crucial have gone ahead. Drs appointments etc have gone ahead just in a different format Basically the NHS hasn’t been abused for once. So stop with the bull shit that’s read in papers about people not being treated. I’ve lost count of the people asking me if we are back open in my area- we never closed and have been working our arses off throughout " Sorry to hear about your scare and hope all is clear. Yes I am aware that they are still ongoing, how funding on research has been postponed and redirected towards covid. More worryingly people are scared to go for checks | |||
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"Very early on in this pandemic a number of epidemiologists cited that we had locked down too late. The reality is they are probably correct, the level of infection in this country got to a point where we can’t manage it. We can blame track and trace etc but when we are dealing with 1000’s of newly infected people a day it’s an impossible task to track the people they have also contacted... We are chasing shadows. Unfortunately we are suffering the consequences of our mistakes, covid will be a major issue for a good while yet and the reality is we have to suffer that. Without lockdown/restrictions we will be overwhelmed treating those badly infected that’s the reality. People need to accept that and play their part in what is a damage limitation exercise." Wise words as always. | |||
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"I don't think lockdown is the answer and don't think widespread testing is the answer too, if you have symptoms isolate and test the front liners But we (the public) don't have the facts, where and why is it spreading, homes, public places, shops, public transport, schools or all of them. Until we understand this we will continue with a scatter gun approach to dealing with the virus. We (the public) don't know what % of have had the virus, how many had no symptoms and how many seriously ill. We need to get back to some semblance of normality albeit with sensible precautions which will be with us for a long time. "...don't think widespread testing is the answer too.. ----------- Widespread testing is how some countries in South East Asia have controlled the spread. "...if you have symptoms isolate..." And what happens to those who are infected but have no symptoms ? ? See why social distancing and other restrictions need to be in place? Germany also did widespread testing and had less than 10% of our fatalities despite have a 15 million greater population... " Yes that's true about Germany, I was going to mention that too. | |||
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"I don't think lockdown is the answer and don't think widespread testing is the answer too, if you have symptoms isolate and test the front liners But we (the public) don't have the facts, where and why is it spreading, homes, public places, shops, public transport, schools or all of them. Until we understand this we will continue with a scatter gun approach to dealing with the virus. We (the public) don't know what % of have had the virus, how many had no symptoms and how many seriously ill. We need to get back to some semblance of normality albeit with sensible precautions which will be with us for a long time. "...don't think widespread testing is the answer too.. ----------- Widespread testing is how some countries in South East Asia have controlled the spread. "...if you have symptoms isolate..." And what happens to those who are infected but have no symptoms ? ? See why social distancing and other restrictions need to be in place? If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test unless t&t get in touch. We are not geared up for widespread testing. As for SEA most countries went into total lockdown and still are. India for example are really struggling and places like Indonesia and Philippines are still in lockdown. " "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. | |||
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"At last, someone voices common sense. We think the same way. It's not fair but the vulnerable need to take extra precautions, and let the rest of the country move forwards. This virus is going to be around for a very long time, medics know how to treat it much better these days and much more successfully than when Covid first arrived, so let's just try and move on." At last someone with common sense I could not agree more with the Op | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system." But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/" According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... | |||
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"Very early on in this pandemic a number of epidemiologists cited that we had locked down too late. The reality is they are probably correct, the level of infection in this country got to a point where we can’t manage it. We can blame track and trace etc but when we are dealing with 1000’s of newly infected people a day it’s an impossible task to track the people they have also contacted... We are chasing shadows. Unfortunately we are suffering the consequences of our mistakes, covid will be a major issue for a good while yet and the reality is we have to suffer that. Without lockdown/restrictions we will be overwhelmed treating those badly infected that’s the reality. People need to accept that and play their part in what is a damage limitation exercise." Exactly This | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer..." You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?." I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits. | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start I don't think there is anyone who thinks we shouldn't be trying to return to some level of normality but one major concern I have is the whole concept of shielding the vulnerable. What I keep seeing from a certain group of people is that the vulnerable will have to take extra precautions etc. which on the surface seems like a sensible idea but in reality is more like the 'vulnerable' become prisoners in their own homes, denied the right to a normal life so the rest of us can go about our merry way unfettered by the responsibility of having to think about someone who is not ourselves. I'm just not that selfish I'm afraid, I do not have an issue with sanitising, with wearing masks in public places and not meeting in large groups if it means that vulnerable people do not have to isolate. What I would like is to see the government let the people with experience of such things, the public health officials et al, take control of the est, track and trace system and make it fit for purpose. I don't need it to be 'world beating' or whatever the bullshit phrase of the day is to pacify idiots, I just want it to work. The private sector has shown it is incapable of doing it so it's time to let the experts take over. Then, once we have a test, track and trace system that works, we can look at returning to normality." . To be fair you sound like you just want everybody to be in the same predicament as the vulnerable?. I don't want to be tracked and traced by anybody let alone the government. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits." . Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start then get a, testing system up and running that works. Number one priority surely.we,seem incapable of doing that. Italy have a system that gives, results, within 30 mins. So what is, our problem. We, were promised a million tests, a, day back in march and April. Then Boris said we, would ramp it up to 2 million. We are, falling woefully short of those figures. Did they just think of a number then boast it out to the country to try and hoodwink us, all. They have had 6 months and look where we are heading. Back to square one. What a, balls up this lot are,. If they had got this bit right we now wouldn't be going where we are... right back into the arms of this virus. What a way to win any war " Test and trace is pointless now when it’s endemic throughout the population. The chance to do this was back at the start, but Vallance advised the government to stop this. We really need to wake up here. We’re just not used to death this is the problem, but, we’re in a pandemic. We have to face the facts, however hard this is. People always die in pandemics. This isn’t going to be any different. Trying to stop this is fruitless. It will do what an infectious disease does. All restrictions and lockdowns are doing is drawing out the inevitable. It’s akin to kicking the can down the road. In the process we’re going to cause an economic, social and educational disaster, if we stay on this path we’re on, for years to come. Many more people will die and be impacted long term as a result of what the government are doing now, than if we shield the vulnerable and let 65 million people get on with their lives. | |||
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"Test and trace is pointless now when it’s endemic throughout the population. The chance to do this was back at the start, but Vallance advised the government to stop this. We really need to wake up here. We’re just not used to death this is the problem, but, we’re in a pandemic. We have to face the facts, however hard this is. People always die in pandemics. This isn’t going to be any different. Trying to stop this is fruitless. It will do what an infectious disease does. All restrictions and lockdowns are doing is drawing out the inevitable. It’s akin to kicking the can down the road. In the process we’re going to cause an economic, social and educational disaster, if we stay on this path we’re on, for years to come. Many more people will die and be impacted long term as a result of what the government are doing now, than if we shield the vulnerable and let 65 million people get on with their lives. " You completely fail to realise the mechanics of this pandemic, if we take that approach a huge number of people will die, support structures will be unable to cope. It’s an utter nonsense | |||
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"Test and trace is pointless now when it’s endemic throughout the population. The chance to do this was back at the start, but Vallance advised the government to stop this. We really need to wake up here. We’re just not used to death this is the problem, but, we’re in a pandemic. We have to face the facts, however hard this is. People always die in pandemics. This isn’t going to be any different. Trying to stop this is fruitless. It will do what an infectious disease does. All restrictions and lockdowns are doing is drawing out the inevitable. It’s akin to kicking the can down the road. In the process we’re going to cause an economic, social and educational disaster, if we stay on this path we’re on, for years to come. Many more people will die and be impacted long term as a result of what the government are doing now, than if we shield the vulnerable and let 65 million people get on with their lives. You completely fail to realise the mechanics of this pandemic, if we take that approach a huge number of people will die, support structures will be unable to cope. It’s an utter nonsense" A bit like the peak on April 11th, 19 days after lockdown when NHS capacity reached 42%... More people will die long term doing what we're doing now. Maybe after two or three more years of these restrictions and lockdowns the penny might drop. | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective" If we are to strike a balance what price would be enough for you to sacrifice your parent or grandparent? | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable." Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations. | |||
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"Test and trace is pointless now when it’s endemic throughout the population. The chance to do this was back at the start, but Vallance advised the government to stop this. We really need to wake up here. We’re just not used to death this is the problem, but, we’re in a pandemic. We have to face the facts, however hard this is. People always die in pandemics. This isn’t going to be any different. Trying to stop this is fruitless. It will do what an infectious disease does. All restrictions and lockdowns are doing is drawing out the inevitable. It’s akin to kicking the can down the road. In the process we’re going to cause an economic, social and educational disaster, if we stay on this path we’re on, for years to come. Many more people will die and be impacted long term as a result of what the government are doing now, than if we shield the vulnerable and let 65 million people get on with their lives. You completely fail to realise the mechanics of this pandemic, if we take that approach a huge number of people will die, support structures will be unable to cope. It’s an utter nonsense A bit like the peak on April 11th, 19 days after lockdown when NHS capacity reached 42%... More people will die long term doing what we're doing now. Maybe after two or three more years of these restrictions and lockdowns the penny might drop. " And what capacity did HDU, ICU’s reach during this time? You don’t have a clue what you’re talking about... there was huge capacity in the NHS in areas such as A&E, fracture clinics etc. But it’s capacity which offers zero help to the critical needs of the pandemic. | |||
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"Test and trace is pointless now when it’s endemic throughout the population. The chance to do this was back at the start, but Vallance advised the government to stop this. We really need to wake up here. We’re just not used to death this is the problem, but, we’re in a pandemic. We have to face the facts, however hard this is. People always die in pandemics. This isn’t going to be any different. Trying to stop this is fruitless. It will do what an infectious disease does. All restrictions and lockdowns are doing is drawing out the inevitable. It’s akin to kicking the can down the road. In the process we’re going to cause an economic, social and educational disaster, if we stay on this path we’re on, for years to come. Many more people will die and be impacted long term as a result of what the government are doing now, than if we shield the vulnerable and let 65 million people get on with their lives. You completely fail to realise the mechanics of this pandemic, if we take that approach a huge number of people will die, support structures will be unable to cope. It’s an utter nonsense A bit like the peak on April 11th, 19 days after lockdown when NHS capacity reached 42%... More people will die long term doing what we're doing now. Maybe after two or three more years of these restrictions and lockdowns the penny might drop. And what capacity did HDU, ICU’s reach during this time? You don’t have a clue what you’re talking about... there was huge capacity in the NHS in areas such as A&E, fracture clinics etc. But it’s capacity which offers zero help to the critical needs of the pandemic. " I just told you. NHS ICU capacity at the peak was 42% across the U.K. after almost three weeks of lockdown. There's your lag & incubation period. Lord Sumption a respected former Supreme Court Judge mentioned this on various radio stations last week. Don't believe everything the government tells you. | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective If we are to strike a balance what price would be enough for you to sacrifice your parent or grandparent?" Someone needs to look at the numbers and come up with an acceptable figure, although it sounds callous that's life. Flu kills many people each year and that is acceptable to us. If covid had killed one grandparent we wouldn't be having this conversation but it would be tragic to the family | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective If we are to strike a balance what price would be enough for you to sacrifice your parent or grandparent? Someone needs to look at the numbers and come up with an acceptable figure, although it sounds callous that's life. Flu kills many people each year and that is acceptable to us. If covid had killed one grandparent we wouldn't be having this conversation but it would be tragic to the family " So here is something you won't see a lot of articles on. Because the same social distancing measures, handwashing, masks etc curb the same transmission method as influenza there has been a sharp decline in flu deaths. This means that flu, which has been used so many times as an excuse to poo-poo Covid-19, is just one more reason to adhere to the rules. | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective If we are to strike a balance what price would be enough for you to sacrifice your parent or grandparent? Someone needs to look at the numbers and come up with an acceptable figure, although it sounds callous that's life. Flu kills many people each year and that is acceptable to us. If covid had killed one grandparent we wouldn't be having this conversation but it would be tragic to the family " Flu does not kill the same amount of people as covid... | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective If we are to strike a balance what price would be enough for you to sacrifice your parent or grandparent? Someone needs to look at the numbers and come up with an acceptable figure, although it sounds callous that's life. Flu kills many people each year and that is acceptable to us. If covid had killed one grandparent we wouldn't be having this conversation but it would be tragic to the family Flu does not kill the same amount of people as covid..." "Lockdowns and social-distancing measures aimed at slowing the spread of coronavirus seem to have shortened the influenza season in the northern hemisphere by about six weeks. Globally, an estimated 290,000–650,000 people typically die from seasonal flu, so a shorter flu season could mean tens of thousands of lives are spared" | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations." . Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier." New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths? | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective If we are to strike a balance what price would be enough for you to sacrifice your parent or grandparent? Someone needs to look at the numbers and come up with an acceptable figure, although it sounds callous that's life. Flu kills many people each year and that is acceptable to us. If covid had killed one grandparent we wouldn't be having this conversation but it would be tragic to the family Flu does not kill the same amount of people as covid..." So you are saying a certain number of deaths is acceptable? | |||
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"Test and trace is pointless now when it’s endemic throughout the population. The chance to do this was back at the start, but Vallance advised the government to stop this. We really need to wake up here. We’re just not used to death this is the problem, but, we’re in a pandemic. We have to face the facts, however hard this is. People always die in pandemics. This isn’t going to be any different. Trying to stop this is fruitless. It will do what an infectious disease does. All restrictions and lockdowns are doing is drawing out the inevitable. It’s akin to kicking the can down the road. In the process we’re going to cause an economic, social and educational disaster, if we stay on this path we’re on, for years to come. Many more people will die and be impacted long term as a result of what the government are doing now, than if we shield the vulnerable and let 65 million people get on with their lives. You completely fail to realise the mechanics of this pandemic, if we take that approach a huge number of people will die, support structures will be unable to cope. It’s an utter nonsense A bit like the peak on April 11th, 19 days after lockdown when NHS capacity reached 42%... More people will die long term doing what we're doing now. Maybe after two or three more years of these restrictions and lockdowns the penny might drop. " Capacity reached 42% but that meant virtually nothing else could be done. You can’t have sick people with compromised immune systems being treated in the same areas as Covid patients, you can’t have people who are treating Covid patients then going to treat other sick people. Hospitals are not like factories, the lack of understanding that you are showing of how healthcare and viruses work is one of the reasons we are still in this position. | |||
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" So you are saying a certain number of deaths is acceptable? " It's not a question of acceptabilty, it's a question of inevitablilty. The sooner we all realize that the more chance we have of actually bringing some sanity back to this country. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?" . Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions" Sweden has and they now have very low new cases | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases" How many times does the Sweden thing have to be debunked? | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases How many times does the Sweden thing have to be debunked?" As many times as you want but it has lower infection rates than most country’s | |||
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"We're in a bad way until a vaccine is out. Like many things in life people feel different about it, especially if they have been directly affected. We all need to be sensible. " A vaccine is not necessarily the answer, we have one for flu that isn't always effective annually. We can live in hope, but I agree with the original poster, shield the vulnerable, everyone I know has followed social distancing, hand hygiene etc and we have all worked in Healthcare throughout. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. " You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases How many times does the Sweden thing have to be debunked?As many times as you want but it has lower infection rates than most country’s " It has a lower population than most countries. Compared to other Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway) they failed miserably. Ok Sweden have a larger population than Denmark.... They have 1/8th of the population of Germany but more than half their fatalities. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases" You don't know anything about Sweden, do you? | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases You don't know anything about Sweden, do you?" As regards what ? | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases You don't know anything about Sweden, do you? As regards what ?" I've been intruiged by the whole Sweden thing. So I've done a lot of Googling. Out of all the studies that say what a disaster it was I have come across one article claiming it was a success. It was written by a Swede and claims Sweden has herd immunity with a 17% percentage immune population. If Sweden did in fact have herd immunity through such a low percentage then all that would prove is how different our demographic is since most demographics would need 70 or 80. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases You don't know anything about Sweden, do you? As regards what ? I've been intruiged by the whole Sweden thing. So I've done a lot of Googling. Out of all the studies that say what a disaster it was I have come across one article claiming it was a success. It was written by a Swede and claims Sweden has herd immunity with a 17% percentage immune population. If Sweden did in fact have herd immunity through such a low percentage then all that would prove is how different our demographic is since most demographics would need 70 or 80." Sweden have amongst the worse deaths rates in terms of per capita. Not a great success. We need a lockdown that's strictly endeared too. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases You don't know anything about Sweden, do you? As regards what ? I've been intruiged by the whole Sweden thing. So I've done a lot of Googling. Out of all the studies that say what a disaster it was I have come across one article claiming it was a success. It was written by a Swede and claims Sweden has herd immunity with a 17% percentage immune population. If Sweden did in fact have herd immunity through such a low percentage then all that would prove is how different our demographic is since most demographics would need 70 or 80. Sweden have amongst the worse deaths rates in terms of per capita. Not a great success. We need a lockdown that's strictly endeared too. " On the per capita trend at it's peak, I think Sweden was only surpassed by Italy. I stand to be corrected just going by memory. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases You don't know anything about Sweden, do you? As regards what ? I've been intruiged by the whole Sweden thing. So I've done a lot of Googling. Out of all the studies that say what a disaster it was I have come across one article claiming it was a success. It was written by a Swede and claims Sweden has herd immunity with a 17% percentage immune population. If Sweden did in fact have herd immunity through such a low percentage then all that would prove is how different our demographic is since most demographics would need 70 or 80." I am swedish with most of my family in Stockholm. I really do not think Sweden should be looked at as a good example. We self isolate in normal times However the rate has been horrendous and received a lot of criticism from within the nation , incompetent and disastrous policy, am sorry to say | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start " | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start " | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start " were you "shielding" before....... just asking because you, and a lot of people here, are being very blase about what shielding meant to those who had to do it.... I was "shielding" because i have a low white blood cell count and my immune system is compromised! you are asking a lot of people to lock themselves away again just so YOU can live your life! to be honest that is a Really selfish attitude because a lot of us shielding have already done that for you!!!! remember that..... so much for in this together bollocks if it impedes on your freedoms a bit!!! just stick on a damn mask and we ALL get thru this sooner and quicker!!!! | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases You don't know anything about Sweden, do you? As regards what ?" Their culture, geography, level of social responsibility. Essentially, why they are nothing like us as a society. | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start were you "shielding" before....... just asking because you, and a lot of people here, are being very blase about what shielding meant to those who had to do it.... I was "shielding" because i have a low white blood cell count and my immune system is compromised! you are asking a lot of people to lock themselves away again just so YOU can live your life! to be honest that is a Really selfish attitude because a lot of us shielding have already done that for you!!!! remember that..... so much for in this together bollocks if it impedes on your freedoms a bit!!! just stick on a damn mask and we ALL get thru this sooner and quicker!!!! " I read it as the Op doesn’t want another lock down which If happens would mean you returning to shielding anyway. | |||
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"Hey guys it's easy to see where we would be without lockdown (the Sweden route). Take the fatality rate we were on before lockdown and extrapolate it to a point where hospitals overflow and oxygen is depleted and then double it. Extend that near vertical gradient until you have herd immunity and that's how many people would die going the Sweden route..." You must surely be joking? No | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start were you "shielding" before....... just asking because you, and a lot of people here, are being very blase about what shielding meant to those who had to do it.... I was "shielding" because i have a low white blood cell count and my immune system is compromised! you are asking a lot of people to lock themselves away again just so YOU can live your life! to be honest that is a Really selfish attitude because a lot of us shielding have already done that for you!!!! remember that..... so much for in this together bollocks if it impedes on your freedoms a bit!!! just stick on a damn mask and we ALL get thru this sooner and quicker!!!! " | |||
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"I'm in total agreement with lockdown, on one condition , I'm locked down with at least 15, 25 year old nymphomaniacs! " Modern problems require modern solutions. | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start " "...in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do..." Can you quantify the number of people who die from a long term lockdown and the number of people who will die without lockdown. Are you using empirical data or is this a thumb suck? | |||
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"At last, someone voices common sense. We think the same way. It's not fair but the vulnerable need to take extra precautions, and let the rest of the country move forwards. This virus is going to be around for a very long time, medics know how to treat it much better these days and much more successfully than when Covid first arrived, so let's just try and move on." Very much so... | |||
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"Hey guys it's easy to see where we would be without lockdown (the Sweden route). Take the fatality rate we were on before lockdown and extrapolate it to a point where hospitals overflow and oxygen is depleted and then double it. Extend that near vertical gradient until you have herd immunity and that's how many people would die going the Sweden route... You must surely be joking? No " Exponential curves are mathematically calculatable. The was a person on here who predicted the daily fugures with uncanny accuracy during the initial outbreak. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases You don't know anything about Sweden, do you? As regards what ? I've been intruiged by the whole Sweden thing. So I've done a lot of Googling. Out of all the studies that say what a disaster it was I have come across one article claiming it was a success. It was written by a Swede and claims Sweden has herd immunity with a 17% percentage immune population. If Sweden did in fact have herd immunity through such a low percentage then all that would prove is how different our demographic is since most demographics would need 70 or 80." vi borde ha låst oss. Använd inte Sverige som ett bra exempel tack. | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start were you "shielding" before....... just asking because you, and a lot of people here, are being very blase about what shielding meant to those who had to do it.... I was "shielding" because i have a low white blood cell count and my immune system is compromised! you are asking a lot of people to lock themselves away again just so YOU can live your life! to be honest that is a Really selfish attitude because a lot of us shielding have already done that for you!!!! remember that..... so much for in this together bollocks if it impedes on your freedoms a bit!!! just stick on a damn mask and we ALL get thru this sooner and quicker!!!! " Boris just said seperating the vulnerable is not practical. He also said people have not followed the rules. Except for those getting their eyes tested. No kidding. 5000 new infections yesterday! Go figure. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden has and they now have very low new cases You don't know anything about Sweden, do you? As regards what ? I've been intruiged by the whole Sweden thing. So I've done a lot of Googling. Out of all the studies that say what a disaster it was I have come across one article claiming it was a success. It was written by a Swede and claims Sweden has herd immunity with a 17% percentage immune population. If Sweden did in fact have herd immunity through such a low percentage then all that would prove is how different our demographic is since most demographics would need 70 or 80. vi borde ha låst oss. Använd inte Sverige som ett bra exempel tack." Well 20% of Swedes did lock themselves in. Things looked good until it hit the care homes | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start were you "shielding" before....... just asking because you, and a lot of people here, are being very blase about what shielding meant to those who had to do it.... I was "shielding" because i have a low white blood cell count and my immune system is compromised! you are asking a lot of people to lock themselves away again just so YOU can live your life! to be honest that is a Really selfish attitude because a lot of us shielding have already done that for you!!!! remember that..... so much for in this together bollocks if it impedes on your freedoms a bit!!! just stick on a damn mask and we ALL get thru this sooner and quicker!!!! Boris just said seperating the vulnerable is not practical. He also said people have not followed the rules. Except for those getting their eyes tested. No kidding. 5000 new infections yesterday! Go figure. " The silly people who think they know better. Follow the rules please dont be selfish and subsequently risk the elderly and vulnerable. | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start were you "shielding" before....... just asking because you, and a lot of people here, are being very blase about what shielding meant to those who had to do it.... I was "shielding" because i have a low white blood cell count and my immune system is compromised! you are asking a lot of people to lock themselves away again just so YOU can live your life! to be honest that is a Really selfish attitude because a lot of us shielding have already done that for you!!!! remember that..... so much for in this together bollocks if it impedes on your freedoms a bit!!! just stick on a damn mask and we ALL get thru this sooner and quicker!!!! Boris just said seperating the vulnerable is not practical. He also said people have not followed the rules. Except for those getting their eyes tested. No kidding. 5000 new infections yesterday! Go figure. The silly people who think they know better. Follow the rules please dont be selfish and subsequently risk the elderly and vulnerable. " I'm watching a live broadcast from outside number 10. The door keeps opening and people without masks walking out.... Just a reminder people without masks will get £200 fines. | |||
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"We tried the lockdown earlier in the year and look where we are now. Sure it helps for a short time but we can't spend our lives or the next couples of years in lockdown or with these contradictory restrictions. " We are here because people, choose not to follow rules and guidelines. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor." . No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective" "....But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it..." ------------------------- That is exactly what we are doing with the flu. We are not trying to eradicate the flu, just slowing it down by a method called vaccine. Same should apply to covid, there has to be a method to slow it down. Not having a method in place should not be an option. | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective "....But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it..." ------------------------- That is exactly what we are doing with the flu. We are not trying to eradicate the flu, just slowing it down by a method called vaccine. Same should apply to covid, there has to be a method to slow it down. Not having a method in place should not be an option." . Yet many many countries do just that for influenza, Germany and Norway have a vaccination rate of less than half what the UK does, so are they slowing it at the right rate or too slow? | |||
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" "...If you don't have symptoms you ain't going to go for a test..." --------------------------- That's exactly the point I am making. If you don't have symptoms you won't go for a test and you won't know you've had it - but you could still be spreading it. Which is why other measures / restrictions (lockdown, SD etc) need to be in place to reduce the spread until we have a better test, track and trace system in place. We can't go back to 'normal life' at this stage. When I mentioned South East Asia, I was referring to South Korea, not India. South Korea did not lockdown, they controlled the spread through an effective and efficient test-track-trace-and isolate system. But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it. If the plan is to slow it till we get a vaccine it could go on for a long time and the young generation and probably the next will be paying for this. I understand people saying you cannot put a price on life but we have to strike a balance. But that's just my perspective "....But you are not going to eradicate the virus by any method being proposed, just slowing it..." ------------------------- That is exactly what we are doing with the flu. We are not trying to eradicate the flu, just slowing it down by a method called vaccine. Same should apply to covid, there has to be a method to slow it down. Not having a method in place should not be an option.. Yet many many countries do just that for influenza, Germany and Norway have a vaccination rate of less than half what the UK does, so are they slowing it at the right rate or too slow?" What difference does vaccination rates have to do with the point I made ? My point is 'there is a method' to slow down and reduce the amount of people who suffer and die from flu. Some countries would vaccinate more than others for different reasons - economic, social, religious etc. The bottom line is almost every country uses a vaccine as a 'Method' to control the spread of flu. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with." That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat." This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM | |||
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Reply privately |
"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM" "....The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing..." -------------------------- The same increase in testing is creating case spikes everywhere else in Europe. So what you state above is not exclusive to Sweden. Sweden is currently seeing higher new daily cases compared to Norway and Finland - who locked down "....outcome pretty close to what actually happened..." And that out come is: Among all the Nordic countries, Sweden has the highest death rate per capita, the highest number of infections, plus they’ve had a worse economic outcome compared to neighbours Norway and Finland. | |||
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Reply privately |
"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM "....The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing..." -------------------------- The same increase in testing is creating case spikes everywhere else in Europe. So what you state above is not exclusive to Sweden. Sweden is currently seeing higher new daily cases compared to Norway and Finland - who locked down "....outcome pretty close to what actually happened..." And that out come is: Among all the Nordic countries, Sweden has the highest death rate per capita, the highest number of infections, plus they’ve had a worse economic outcome compared to neighbours Norway and Finland." But Sweden has ABBA and IKEA and meatballs.... we should be like them. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) |
Reply privately |
"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM "....The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing..." -------------------------- The same increase in testing is creating case spikes everywhere else in Europe. So what you state above is not exclusive to Sweden. Sweden is currently seeing higher new daily cases compared to Norway and Finland - who locked down "....outcome pretty close to what actually happened..." And that out come is: Among all the Nordic countries, Sweden has the highest death rate per capita, the highest number of infections, plus they’ve had a worse economic outcome compared to neighbours Norway and Finland. But Sweden has ABBA and IKEA and meatballs.... we should be like them. " Just don’t fit their kitchens as their shite Meatballs yes ABBA on occasion But never an Ikea kitchen | |||
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Reply privately |
"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM "....The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing..." -------------------------- The same increase in testing is creating case spikes everywhere else in Europe. So what you state above is not exclusive to Sweden. Sweden is currently seeing higher new daily cases compared to Norway and Finland - who locked down "....outcome pretty close to what actually happened..." And that out come is: Among all the Nordic countries, Sweden has the highest death rate per capita, the highest number of infections, plus they’ve had a worse economic outcome compared to neighbours Norway and Finland. But Sweden has ABBA and IKEA and meatballs.... we should be like them. Just don’t fit their kitchens as their shite Meatballs yes ABBA on occasion But never an Ikea kitchen " That's sad to hear. Had such a good party in your kitchen | |||
(closed, thread got too big) |
Reply privately |
"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM" It's a good vieo. Thanks for posting. My immediate thought was that it would be great Anders Tegnell could give English lessons to Donald Trump and Boris Johnson. Seriously though, when you have leaders like that who inspire confidence I can see how people can get behind them. Very clearly the track and trace system in Sweden is a different kettle of fish to what we have here in the UK. | |||
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Reply privately |
"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM "....The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing..." -------------------------- The same increase in testing is creating case spikes everywhere else in Europe. So what you state above is not exclusive to Sweden. Sweden is currently seeing higher new daily cases compared to Norway and Finland - who locked down "....outcome pretty close to what actually happened..." And that out come is: Among all the Nordic countries, Sweden has the highest death rate per capita, the highest number of infections, plus they’ve had a worse economic outcome compared to neighbours Norway and Finland. But Sweden has ABBA and IKEA and meatballs.... we should be like them. " Haha, yes you have to like them for that. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM "....The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing..." -------------------------- The same increase in testing is creating case spikes everywhere else in Europe. So what you state above is not exclusive to Sweden. Sweden is currently seeing higher new daily cases compared to Norway and Finland - who locked down "....outcome pretty close to what actually happened..." And that out come is: Among all the Nordic countries, Sweden has the highest death rate per capita, the highest number of infections, plus they’ve had a worse economic outcome compared to neighbours Norway and Finland. But Sweden has ABBA and IKEA and meatballs.... we should be like them. Haha, yes you have to like them for that. " Can we swap them Boris for Anders? | |||
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"We tried the lockdown earlier in the year and look where we are now. Sure it helps for a short time but we can't spend our lives or the next couples of years in lockdown or with these contradictory restrictions. Who said lockdown will last for years?" And government haven't said it won't last for years.... | |||
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"We tried the lockdown earlier in the year and look where we are now. Sure it helps for a short time but we can't spend our lives or the next couples of years in lockdown or with these contradictory restrictions. Who said lockdown will last for years? And government haven't said it won't last for years.... " A lockdown done properly should last 3 months max. A half cocked, half hearted sloppy disorganised lockdown will last until everyone is vaccined. I calculated herd immunity for the UK at our current rate of infection. 37 years. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM It's a good vieo. Thanks for posting. My immediate thought was that it would be great Anders Tegnell could give English lessons to Donald Trump and Boris Johnson. Seriously though, when you have leaders like that who inspire confidence I can see how people can get behind them. Very clearly the track and trace system in Sweden is a different kettle of fish to what we have here in the UK." But ours is world beating | |||
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"We tried the lockdown earlier in the year and look where we are now. Sure it helps for a short time but we can't spend our lives or the next couples of years in lockdown or with these contradictory restrictions. Who said lockdown will last for years? And government haven't said it won't last for years.... " And? | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM "....The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing..." -------------------------- The same increase in testing is creating case spikes everywhere else in Europe. So what you state above is not exclusive to Sweden. Sweden is currently seeing higher new daily cases compared to Norway and Finland - who locked down "....outcome pretty close to what actually happened..." And that out come is: Among all the Nordic countries, Sweden has the highest death rate per capita, the highest number of infections, plus they’ve had a worse economic outcome compared to neighbours Norway and Finland. But Sweden has ABBA and IKEA and meatballs.... we should be like them. Haha, yes you have to like them for that. Can we swap them Boris for Anders?" Worth a try | |||
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"We tried the lockdown earlier in the year and look where we are now. Sure it helps for a short time but we can't spend our lives or the next couples of years in lockdown or with these contradictory restrictions. Who said lockdown will last for years? And government haven't said it won't last for years.... " "...And government haven't said it won't last for years...." -------------------- There is no government plans for lockdown to last for years. That is not the intention now or ever. As I've said on other threads before, there will be no need for lockdowns once we have other control measures in place - a vaccine, treatment, effective quarantine, and more importantly an Effective & Efficient test-track & trace. If the Boris and Co can up their game on the test-track & trace, then we can manage this pandemic without the need for lockdowns. | |||
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"Professor Woolhouse from Edinburgh University is a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group and advises the government. He recently said that Trying to control Covid-19 through a lockdown as a monumental mistake. 90 doctors and scientists in Israel, including a Nobel prize winner, recently concluded 'A closure is thus a strategic mistake, based on a lack of basic understanding of the mechanisms of a pandemic'. A letter signed by 394 medical doctors and 1343 health professionals in Belgium has just been sent to the Belgium Government where they argue that there is no medical justification for any further Covid restrictions – the medical evidence just doesn’t support them. Now more recently in the UK 32 scientists including, Professor Sunetra Gupta; Professor of theoretical epidemiology, the University of Oxford Professor Carl Heneghan; Director, Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, the University of Oxford Professor Karol Sikora; Consultant oncologist and Professor of medicine, University of Buckingham Sam Williams; Director and co-founder of Economic Insight have written to the government to say that "that the existing policy path is inconsistent with the known risk-profile of Covid-19 and should be reconsidered." Time to wake up and realise that we could never do anything other than try and slow the rate of spread (as originally proposed to stop the NHS being overwhelmed). Now many thousands of excess collateral deaths and a ruined economy are the result of this flawed policy." | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions" Belarus. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Belarus. " They have quite a low death rate but apparently they have an excellent health care system. | |||
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"The lack of intelligent leadership in the US and the UK is appalling, along with several other countries as well. If there was intelligent leadership we wouldn't be in the position we are in now For example : The US and South Korea had their first covid 19 case the same day. The US will have 200,000 total covid 19 deaths sometime today. Now, check the total deaths of covid 19 in South Korea today. Get the point !!! The US only has 4% of the world population, but it has nearly 21% of the worlds total deaths from covid 19 as of today !!! Get the point !!! Having idiots as leaders is obviously detrimental to your health, no to mention all the other serious problems they cause while in office, and after they leave office because of their idiotic decisions !!! Get the point !!! Covid 19 isn't a joke, don't act like it's a joke, be responsible, tell others to be responsible, you may just save someone you love, or others may save someone you love !!! Get the point !!! Use your head for something more than just a hat rack !!! Get the point !!! " Might have something to with South Korea having one of the lowest obesity rates in the world at 4%. USA and UK are at the other end of the scale. | |||
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"Makes me laugh all this just lock u the elderly and highest risk Given half the chance I'm 99.9% sure everyone's grandma or grandad would isolate to protect their children's and grand kids life's.. Why can't we as a younger generation have some respect for them, they fought through the dam war lol pioneered our future the least we can do is follow some bloody guidelines to protect them surly!! " Perfectly put. But unfortunately people only care about their own situation and expect others to sacrifice their lives and well-being for their own. | |||
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"On the whole Sweden issue. Interesting blog by a Swedish GP https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/09/19/covid-19-does-sweden-have-herd-immunity/ According to antibody tests Stockholm has less than 20% infection. The experts say you need 70 or 80% for herd immunity. But I guess that differs from area to area depending on population density. I had a thread going about the production of Vitamin D being a factor in the Covid-19 equation and there have been articles suggesting that our Nordic friends are less susceptible to Covid-19. This would suggest a low sunlight population may require less sunlight to produce Vitamin D than people who originate from sunnier environments and require more sunlight to produce the same amount. Why I am mentioning this is because we are heading into winter instead of heading into summer... You mean like there's an evolutionary reason as to why there white?. I'm saying there is a direct correlation between skin darkness and Vitamin D production. It makes sense to me. If all humans produced the same Vitamin D then people in low sunlight countries would be deficienct and high sinlight countries over produce. Northern Italy was hit much harder than Southern Italy for example... our own BAME population was hit harder than those with Nordic ancestry. Sure there are other factors, but it fits. Also older people produce less Vitamin D... starting in their mid sixties... why does this sound so familiar? Also fits.. Maybe a little but I think it's just a little bit, it's more to do with this stat, the top ten countries with the highest death rate from covid are also the top ten countries who vaccinate against influenza to the highest level, we've just got way more old and vulnerable. Some of the least hit countries vaccinate against flu too. But you have a point that having a larger aged population will affect data. We have 5 million people over 65. That has more to do with baby boomers than vaccinations.. Not really the top ten countries with the lowest death rate from covid also have the lowest vaccination rate against influenza Taiwan being the outlier. New Zealand vaccines against flu. How many deaths?. Yes to 61% doesn't put them in the top ten, but yes just an outlier of a big country small population stuck in the middle of nowhere with they're borders closed. The correlation is very good the top ten vaccinators in the over 65s are UK Sweden Mexico USA Belgium Brazil etc etc... Europe is vastly different on flu vaccine rates, Germany only vaccinated about 30% so do most Eastern European nations. You're right. Germanys vaccination rate is in the 30s whilst ours is in the 70s. Yet in 2017 28% of their population was over 60. So because of their elderly population Covid-19 should have hit them hard! England population over 60 is 22.5% or 15.3 million. In Germany just over 28% or 24 million. Deaths from Covid-19 Germany 9481 Deaths from Covid-19 UK 41285 The number of people getting vaccinated in Germany is half that of the UK but still have a higher percentage of elderly people. So. When comparing apples with apples instead of cherry picking data... Vaccinations do not correlate directly with elderly populations and elderly populations do not necessarily correlate with Covid-19 stats although they aught to. It seems that government policy is the over riding determining factor.. No it's more nuanced than that, age is only a factor with comorbidities, the flu vaccine gets the elderly with comorbidities who would die from flu to live a few more years longer, there the low hanging fruit for covid19, everybody below them sars-cov2 seems to struggle more with. That's the same as the Sweden argument. "Less people died the year before from flu, so there were more susceptible people". And when you crunch the figures only 1000 people less died from flu and cannot account for 4500 extra deaths. Whenever numbers are challenged in this forum abstract arguments fall flat. This is an interview with Anders Tegnell discussing the Swedish approach and the comparison with other countries. Couple of interesting take aways. The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing. Secondly they looked at the Imperial College models and realised the input data was flawed. They put in what they considered to be more realistic data and predicted an outcome pretty close to what actually happened. https://youtu.be/6C99MtK4ogM "....The case spike recently in Sweden was due to an increase in testing..." -------------------------- The same increase in testing is creating case spikes everywhere else in Europe. So what you state above is not exclusive to Sweden. Sweden is currently seeing higher new daily cases compared to Norway and Finland - who locked down "....outcome pretty close to what actually happened..." And that out come is: Among all the Nordic countries, Sweden has the highest death rate per capita, the highest number of infections, plus they’ve had a worse economic outcome compared to neighbours Norway and Finland. But Sweden has ABBA and IKEA and meatballs.... we should be like them. Haha, yes you have to like them for that. Can we swap them Boris for Anders?" According to the guardian you might have partially got your way. Apparently the U.K. government are taking advice from Anders | |||
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"At last, someone voices common sense. We think the same way. It's not fair but the vulnerable need to take extra precautions, and let the rest of the country move forwards. This virus is going to be around for a very long time, medics know how to treat it much better these days and much more successfully than when Covid first arrived, so let's just try and move on. At last someone with common sense I could not agree more with the Op" Yes, the stupidity & ignorance of folk on here is worrying. When a virus is endemic through a population you can not effectively track and trace. This is the situation. A vaccine is a pipe dream. Virus is here forever, so we have to live with it. People seem to think we should live in partial or full lockdown indefinitely. It’s complete madness. | |||
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"I don't think lockdown is the answer and don't think widespread testing is the answer too, if you have symptoms isolate and test the front liners But we (the public) don't have the facts, where and why is it spreading, homes, public places, shops, public transport, schools or all of them. Until we understand this we will continue with a scatter gun approach to dealing with the virus. We (the public) don't know what % of have had the virus, how many had no symptoms and how many seriously ill. We need to get back to some semblance of normality albeit with sensible precautions which will be with us for a long time. " There is plenty of evidence to show only a small proportion have had the virus. If nothing else the current exponential growth in confirmed cases is pretty good evidence we are a long way from herd immunity. When sensible precautions do you suggest? The problem is too many flout the existing sensible precautions | |||
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"Every single person in the country is vulnerable to a new virus. Deaths are just part of the issue- many, many people are left with serious long term issues with organ failure. The more people who catch the virus, the more it will mutate and this particular virus has the potential to be much, much more damaging than it is at present." Gripped by fear and spouting rubbish. | |||
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"Our Government has not handled this pandemic well and I’m not impressed by the ‘you are all naughty people’ attitude from Tuesday nights address ! We now face another six months of restrictions because our government doesn’t have a vaccine on the horizon despite numerous claims that we placed orders for 300 million doses, of what ? - How can you order something that doesn’t actually exist ! Look at Germany, getting back to normal because they got their test and trace working from from almost day one as well as putting sensible restrictions in place that the population could adhere to, we still don’t have a test and trace up and running yet ! Our Government has not handled this well and I’m not impressed by the ‘you are all naughty people’ attitude from last nights address ! I didn’t ask millions of people to fly into this country during a pandemic without quarantine until 14 weeks after lockdown started ! I didn’t announce in April that masks had no effect on controlling the virus whilst pretty much the rest of Europe wore them. I didn’t tell people ‘eat out to help out’ without realising that that would increase the rate of infections. I’m not a political but our government have made so terrible errors of judgement and we are all now suffering because of it !" You are correct you didn’t do any of those things, equally you didn’t put together a package of furlow and grants to try and sustain jobs and businesses, you didn’t put millions into vaccine development, you didn’t have all the normal business of government also on your plate. It always amazes me how some people seem to think they could do a better job of those in government yet they never put themselves up for election! If you can do better for our country then surely it your moral duty to try to do so. | |||
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"When the Spanish flu pandemic started in 1918 it killed millions 50 million in total by the time it was over, what stopped it plain and simple the virus burned out, how every person on the plannet had it and either died or survived, all lockdown is doing is giving the virus time to mutate in to something more serious, time to bite the bullet and end the lockdown " “..... all lockdown is doing is giving the virus time to mutate in to something more serious....” ————————- Or it could it could give the virus time to mutate in to something *less* serious - then you’ll be saying thanks to lockdown | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden" Nope, sweden has voluntary restrictions in place and people with common sense we have laws and people that don't give a fuck | |||
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"Our Government has not handled this pandemic well and I’m not impressed by the ‘you are all naughty people’ attitude from Tuesday nights address ! We now face another six months of restrictions because our government doesn’t have a vaccine on the horizon despite numerous claims that we placed orders for 300 million doses, of what ? - How can you order something that doesn’t actually exist ! Look at Germany, getting back to normal because they got their test and trace working from from almost day one as well as putting sensible restrictions in place that the population could adhere to, we still don’t have a test and trace up and running yet ! Our Government has not handled this well and I’m not impressed by the ‘you are all naughty people’ attitude from last nights address ! I didn’t ask millions of people to fly into this country during a pandemic without quarantine until 14 weeks after lockdown started ! I didn’t announce in April that masks had no effect on controlling the virus whilst pretty much the rest of Europe wore them. I didn’t tell people ‘eat out to help out’ without realising that that would increase the rate of infections. I’m not a political but our government have made so terrible errors of judgement and we are all now suffering because of it !" You really don't get it, do you ? | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Nope, sweden has voluntary restrictions in place and people with common sense we have laws and people that don't give a fuck" Bolton and Oldham both have had special measures in place for sometime now and yet it doesn't appear to have made any impact. In other towns and cities in the spring when special measures were put in place it had an impact. Can anyone give me data that proves it's people not giving a fuck or the fact that in autumn it's a lot harder to control a respiratory endemic virus | |||
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"When the Spanish flu pandemic started in 1918 it killed millions 50 million in total by the time it was over, what stopped it plain and simple the virus burned out, how every person on the plannet had it and either died or survived, all lockdown is doing is giving the virus time to mutate in to something more serious, time to bite the bullet and end the lockdown “..... all lockdown is doing is giving the virus time to mutate in to something more serious....” ————————- Or it could it could give the virus time to mutate in to something *less* serious - then you’ll be saying thanks to lockdown " Spanish flu lasted three years. And yes they locked down. Read about St Louis vs Philadelphia for a reference on how coming out of lockdown bit them. So. News flash! It isn't 2018 any more! We've moved on since then. Never has so much money, so many clever people, so much resource been thrown at one virus. Never have so many pharmaceutical companies raced to get a vaccine out. Yes, some of us may be willing for others to die so that their life remains unaffected for the next six months... but those people whose lives are at risk feel differently. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Nope, sweden has voluntary restrictions in place and people with common sense we have laws and people that don't give a fuck Bolton and Oldham both have had special measures in place for sometime now and yet it doesn't appear to have made any impact. In other towns and cities in the spring when special measures were put in place it had an impact. Can anyone give me data that proves it's people not giving a fuck or the fact that in autumn it's a lot harder to control a respiratory endemic virus" You want data? 5000 people a day are being tested for COVID-19. They did not get this from one in a million exceptional circumstance. Every day there is a story of a party being broken up here or a mass protest going on there. If anyone thinks we are all following the rules you are delusional. | |||
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"Even people in their 80's with a number of serious underlying health issues have an 80% chance of survival with this virus. Talking about this on the radio. Talk about scaremongering propaganda. It's a totally disproportionate reaction. Pretty much everyone else has a 99.9% chance of surviving this. We're destroying the country. Scandalous. " There are 3.2 million people over 80 in the UK. 20% of that amounts to 640 000 people. 40 000 people in space of a few months didn't survive those odds. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Nope, sweden has voluntary restrictions in place and people with common sense we have laws and people that don't give a fuck Bolton and Oldham both have had special measures in place for sometime now and yet it doesn't appear to have made any impact. In other towns and cities in the spring when special measures were put in place it had an impact. Can anyone give me data that proves it's people not giving a fuck or the fact that in autumn it's a lot harder to control a respiratory endemic virus You want data? 5000 people a day are being tested for COVID-19. They did not get this from one in a million exceptional circumstance. Every day there is a story of a party being broken up here or a mass protest going on there. If anyone thinks we are all following the rules you are delusional. " I was asking for data in Bolton and Oldham as to what is occurring there, but as usual you like a rant. | |||
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"Even people in their 80's with a number of serious underlying health issues have an 80% chance of survival with this virus. Talking about this on the radio. Talk about scaremongering propaganda. It's a totally disproportionate reaction. Pretty much everyone else has a 99.9% chance of surviving this. We're destroying the country. Scandalous. There are 3.2 million people over 80 in the UK. 20% of that amounts to 640 000 people. 40 000 people in space of a few months didn't survive those odds." . That's bollocks if you even remotely think ALL 3.2 million would catch this virus, I know an 80 year old who's never had influenza in his life despite dozens and dozens of epidemics over decades without ANY measures whatsoever, the reality remains more people haven't had influenza than have had it over there entire lifetime of exposure with no restrictions. | |||
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"Even people in their 80's with a number of serious underlying health issues have an 80% chance of survival with this virus. Talking about this on the radio. Talk about scaremongering propaganda. It's a totally disproportionate reaction. Pretty much everyone else has a 99.9% chance of surviving this. We're destroying the country. Scandalous. There are 3.2 million people over 80 in the UK. 20% of that amounts to 640 000 people. 40 000 people in space of a few months didn't survive those odds." Exactly. A totally disproportionate reaction when we have a population of 67 million. Thanks for clarifying my post. | |||
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"Let me scare you then: World-wide we are 17 000 deaths short of 1 million Covid-19 deaths in 9 months. In the UK yesterday there were 6,178 new cases and 37 new deaths in the United Kingdom. I can only find one day where there have been more cases reported in a single day since it started. So yes. I hope this scares people. I hope it terrifies people so horrifically that it makes them think. Makes them wear a mask, wash their hands, keep their distance and act responsibly. It could save lives." Coincidently the number of cases started to rise when officer workers went back, schools went back, universities reopened. Yet somehow its selfish bastartds throwing wild parties that caused it. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Nope, sweden has voluntary restrictions in place and people with common sense we have laws and people that don't give a fuck Bolton and Oldham both have had special measures in place for sometime now and yet it doesn't appear to have made any impact. In other towns and cities in the spring when special measures were put in place it had an impact. Can anyone give me data that proves it's people not giving a fuck or the fact that in autumn it's a lot harder to control a respiratory endemic virus You want data? 5000 people a day are being tested for COVID-19. They did not get this from one in a million exceptional circumstance. Every day there is a story of a party being broken up here or a mass protest going on there. If anyone thinks we are all following the rules you are delusional. I was asking for data in Bolton and Oldham as to what is occurring there, but as usual you like a rant. " Rant? Ok. Let me just agree then. Bolton and Oldham for some reason yet to be explained have social responsibility levels that differ from those of the rest of the country. | |||
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"Let me scare you then: World-wide we are 17 000 deaths short of 1 million Covid-19 deaths in 9 months. In the UK yesterday there were 6,178 new cases and 37 new deaths in the United Kingdom. I can only find one day where there have been more cases reported in a single day since it started. So yes. I hope this scares people. I hope it terrifies people so horrifically that it makes them think. Makes them wear a mask, wash their hands, keep their distance and act responsibly. It could save lives. Coincidently the number of cases started to rise when officer workers went back, schools went back, universities reopened. Yet somehow its selfish bastartds throwing wild parties that caused it." I didn't say it was only people throwing parties. Are you saying parties of large gatherings can't spread the virus? Would you say large parties are a vital part of our economy and continued education? For the record I was against our children going back to school. The place where I earn a living has people coming back to work on a 50% basis with one person per office. | |||
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"Let me scare you then: World-wide we are 17 000 deaths short of 1 million Covid-19 deaths in 9 months. In the UK yesterday there were 6,178 new cases and 37 new deaths in the United Kingdom. I can only find one day where there have been more cases reported in a single day since it started. So yes. I hope this scares people. I hope it terrifies people so horrifically that it makes them think. Makes them wear a mask, wash their hands, keep their distance and act responsibly. It could save lives. Coincidently the number of cases started to rise when officer workers went back, schools went back, universities reopened. Yet somehow its selfish bastartds throwing wild parties that caused it. I didn't say it was only people throwing parties. Are you saying parties of large gatherings can't spread the virus? Would you say large parties are a vital part of our economy and continued education? For the record I was against our children going back to school. The place where I earn a living has people coming back to work on a 50% basis with one person per office." There have been reports of street parties, house parties, crowds on beaches, rammed pubs, demonstrations all over the summer which didn't result in a sharp rise. The sharp rise is a result of a government decision unless it's just coincidence. Whether that government decision is right or wrong considering the impact on education, job security, economy is a matter of opinion. | |||
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"Let me scare you then: World-wide we are 17 000 deaths short of 1 million Covid-19 deaths in 9 months. In the UK yesterday there were 6,178 new cases and 37 new deaths in the United Kingdom. I can only find one day where there have been more cases reported in a single day since it started. So yes. I hope this scares people. I hope it terrifies people so horrifically that it makes them think. Makes them wear a mask, wash their hands, keep their distance and act responsibly. It could save lives. Coincidently the number of cases started to rise when officer workers went back, schools went back, universities reopened. Yet somehow its selfish bastartds throwing wild parties that caused it. I didn't say it was only people throwing parties. Are you saying parties of large gatherings can't spread the virus? Would you say large parties are a vital part of our economy and continued education? For the record I was against our children going back to school. The place where I earn a living has people coming back to work on a 50% basis with one person per office. There have been reports of street parties, house parties, crowds on beaches, rammed pubs, demonstrations all over the summer which didn't result in a sharp rise. The sharp rise is a result of a government decision unless it's just coincidence. Whether that government decision is right or wrong considering the impact on education, job security, economy is a matter of opinion." I very much doubt that the people having these gatherings fell into the group of those worst hit by Covid-19. I also doubt if they were irresponsible enough to attend a party, they were responsible enough to be tested. It probably took some time for their infections to be passed on to their elders and hence the time lag. As I say the place where I earn my living has 50% attendance and no reported infections. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Did Sweden not have any restrictions? Sweden had curfew and social distancing, as such seen a minimal drop in economy and no second spike.However Sweden is a very different country, not as densely populated and possibly more crucially binge drinking is a social no no" And their death rate is greater than some neighbouring countries. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Did Sweden not have any restrictions? Sweden had curfew and social distancing, as such seen a minimal drop in economy and no second spike.However Sweden is a very different country, not as densely populated and possibly more crucially binge drinking is a social no no And their death rate is greater than some neighbouring countries." . So it's not comparable to the UK but it is comparable to every other country? That makes sense | |||
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"Every single person in the country is vulnerable to a new virus. Deaths are just part of the issue- many, many people are left with serious long term issues with organ failure. The more people who catch the virus, the more it will mutate and this particular virus has the potential to be much, much more damaging than it is at present. Gripped by fear and spouting rubbish. " I don’t deal in fear nor do I spout rubbish, I leave that to others. Only facts. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Did Sweden not have any restrictions? Sweden had curfew and social distancing, as such seen a minimal drop in economy and no second spike.However Sweden is a very different country, not as densely populated and possibly more crucially binge drinking is a social no no And their death rate is greater than some neighbouring countries.. So it's not comparable to the UK but it is comparable to every other country? That makes sense " Sweden is probably more comparable to norway or finland maybe. Uk more comparable to germany or italy possibly. Sweden looks like its moving to a local lockdown strategy. | |||
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"In my opinion. Here me out, I know this might be a very unpopular opinion. I personally believe (so this is not gospel) that in the long term lockdown will do more damage than covid will do. There's already an impact on cancer treatments, people's mental health and the economy. Another lockdown will see these impacted long after covid. Plus if you keep locking down, the virus is still out there when restrictions are lifted so we will have to keep locking down till if/when a vacine is found. There needs to be a way to live with it. A return to shielding the vulnerable would be a good start " Yes I agree | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Did Sweden not have any restrictions? Sweden had curfew and social distancing, as such seen a minimal drop in economy and no second spike.However Sweden is a very different country, not as densely populated and possibly more crucially binge drinking is a social no no And their death rate is greater than some neighbouring countries.. So it's not comparable to the UK but it is comparable to every other country? That makes sense Sweden is probably more comparable to norway or finland maybe. Uk more comparable to germany or italy possibly. Sweden looks like its moving to a local lockdown strategy." “......Sweden is probably more comparable to norway or finland maybe. Uk more comparable to germany or italy possibly. Sweden looks like its moving to a local lockdown strategy.....” ——————————— Exactly this But some people still like to compare apples with oranges. | |||
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"We've no idea what will happen with Covid without lockdown or restrictions as no country in the world has the nerve to try it and get blamed for killing millions Sweden Did Sweden not have any restrictions? Sweden had curfew and social distancing, as such seen a minimal drop in economy and no second spike.However Sweden is a very different country, not as densely populated and possibly more crucially binge drinking is a social no no And their death rate is greater than some neighbouring countries.. So it's not comparable to the UK but it is comparable to every other country? That makes sense Sweden is probably more comparable to norway or finland maybe. Uk more comparable to germany or italy possibly. Sweden looks like its moving to a local lockdown strategy. “......Sweden is probably more comparable to norway or finland maybe. Uk more comparable to germany or italy possibly. Sweden looks like its moving to a local lockdown strategy.....” ——————————— Exactly this But some people still like to compare apples with oranges. " There is a bouquet of bullshit arguments to chose from, that provide a convenient alternative to admitting that one simply does not care enough about others to make an effort. No one is buying it except the ones selling it. | |||
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