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2nd wave

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By *old1974 OP   Man
over a year ago

Manchester

If we get herd or even most of the population immunity how can a second wave happen or be any effect be as bad as the first as the govt doom mongerers predict although this could be the second wave or is a third ever going to make any impact any worse than influenza which happens every year except 2020 where all influenza deaths are covid deaths.

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By *eddy and legsCouple
over a year ago

the wetlands


"If we get herd or even most of the population immunity how can a second wave happen or be any effect be as bad as the first as the govt doom mongerers predict although this could be the second wave or is a third ever going to make any impact any worse than influenza which happens every year except 2020 where all influenza deaths are covid deaths."

You'll probably find your answer in any of the dozens of threads about a 2nd wave.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"If we get herd or even most of the population immunity how can a second wave happen or be any effect be as bad as the first as the govt doom mongerers predict although this could be the second wave or is a third ever going to make any impact any worse than influenza which happens every year except 2020 where all influenza deaths are covid deaths."

I cannot recall when the stats were released to suggest only 5% of the UK had been exposed (2 weeks ago?) to cv19 (based on actual testing for the virus) but more recent reports from the ONS state that from a random sample of tests, of those who had tested positive of having had the virus, 2/3 had been asymptomatic. That certainly indicates the previous 5% figure has to be way out. However, we're way behind in the testing stakes, so we have little to no idea about herd immunity. Also, we don't have a definitive response to the time line of immunity (lifespan of the antigens). Therefore we cannot assume we're safe from a second/subsequent wave.

I think best case scenario is to see where new outbreaks are occurring and keep them localised - surely this is the job of trace n contact.

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By *alandNitaCouple
over a year ago

Scunthorpe

You need 59-60% of the population to be immune either via a vaccine or through developed immunity before there is enough separation to prevent a new epidemic.

Cal

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"If we get herd or even most of the population immunity how can a second wave happen or be any effect be as bad as the first as the govt doom mongerers predict although this could be the second wave or is a third ever going to make any impact any worse than influenza which happens every year except 2020 where all influenza deaths are covid deaths."

Well the assumption is that we have herd immunity. Of which there's no evidence that's the case. The at risk people will still be at risk because there are not enough people to shield them.

Here herd immunity is proportional to the number of people who have had the virus and thus can't spread it on.

The 2nd wave of any pandemic has tended to be because of a sudden re-introduction of the virus. As in the this case there would be a large proportion of people who have it, they would inevitably raise the r0 number up suddenly causing a spike in infections and undo any work done by the isolatio.

Influenza has a vaccine. Covid-19 does not. They work on one every year to mitigate the mutation of the flu. It takes roughly 9 months to manufacture and distribute.

Covid-19 currently has no vaccine, so short of infecting everyone deliberately and just putting up with 1000s of people dying and/or crippling the NHS it's always been the case historically since vaccines were discovered that we wait until one is made.

The irony of people complaining about all this when the isolation has no doubt mitigated the spread of any other influenza and thus actually reduced the chances of any future infection seems to be lost on a lot of people.

There are a lot of secondary benefits to this given people are so adamant that other diseases have killed more people (when that's really not the case).

The whole point of a critical isolation period early on is to prevent a 2nd wave that undoes all the sacrifice made already. So essentially it's not going to be a case of "I told you this was nothing" it's going to be a case of "Had you bothered taking this seriously we'd have gotten through it sooner"

People seem to be acting like pandemics are some magical misunderstood idea that's been dreamed up by some evil corrupt government.

A lack of a 2nd wave will be in spite of the idiots flaunting the rules callously. Not because of them. I really find it strange why in this day and age it's hard to inform yourself about how all this works.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"If we get herd or even most of the population immunity how can a second wave happen or be any effect be as bad as the first as the govt doom mongerers predict although this could be the second wave or is a third ever going to make any impact any worse than influenza which happens every year except 2020 where all influenza deaths are covid deaths.

Well the assumption is that we have herd immunity. Of which there's no evidence that's the case. The at risk people will still be at risk because there are not enough people to shield them.

Here herd immunity is proportional to the number of people who have had the virus and thus can't spread it on.

The 2nd wave of any pandemic has tended to be because of a sudden re-introduction of the virus. As in the this case there would be a large proportion of people who have it, they would inevitably raise the r0 number up suddenly causing a spike in infections and undo any work done by the isolatio.

Influenza has a vaccine. Covid-19 does not. They work on one every year to mitigate the mutation of the flu. It takes roughly 9 months to manufacture and distribute.

Covid-19 currently has no vaccine, so short of infecting everyone deliberately and just putting up with 1000s of people dying and/or crippling the NHS it's always been the case historically since vaccines were discovered that we wait until one is made.

The irony of people complaining about all this when the isolation has no doubt mitigated the spread of any other influenza and thus actually reduced the chances of any future infection seems to be lost on a lot of people.

There are a lot of secondary benefits to this given people are so adamant that other diseases have killed more people (when that's really not the case).

The whole point of a critical isolation period early on is to prevent a 2nd wave that undoes all the sacrifice made already. So essentially it's not going to be a case of "I told you this was nothing" it's going to be a case of "Had you bothered taking this seriously we'd have gotten through it sooner"

People seem to be acting like pandemics are some magical misunderstood idea that's been dreamed up by some evil corrupt government.

A lack of a 2nd wave will be in spite of the idiots flaunting the rules callously. Not because of them. I really find it strange why in this day and age it's hard to inform yourself about how all this works."

spot on

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 26/06/20 08:21:52]

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

It will come quicker now with all these mass gatherings not judt protesters but the beaches is full too. I wonder what the thought process these people have?

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By *ornLordMan
over a year ago

Wiltshire and London


"It will come quicker now with all these mass gatherings not judt protesters but the beaches is full too. I wonder what the thought process these people have?"

Not a lot!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It will come quicker now with all these mass gatherings not judt protesters but the beaches is full too. I wonder what the thought process these people have?

Not a lot!"
You are right there .

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Studies in Sweden have shown the virus dies out once it infects around 15% of the population with herd immunity.

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By *andare63Man
over a year ago

oldham

Is there actual proof that herd immunity will actually work. I was under the assumption that there is no proof that even if you have had this virus you are immune from re catching

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By *eddy and legsCouple
over a year ago

the wetlands


"It will come quicker now with all these mass gatherings not judt protesters but the beaches is full too. I wonder what the thought process these people have?"

Thier thinking is probably,

It's warm I'd like to go to the beach, There's a very low chance of getting infected at the beach because the fresh air dissapates the virus and the sunlight kills it and only one in thousands can infect us and we'll keep 2m away from other families.

Stay in if you like but others will do what they want in accordance with the regulations and the media will make it look like armageddon to frighten.

Good luck

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By *havennaturistsCouple
over a year ago

Banff

Flu vaccination reduces the risk of flu illness by between 40% and 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are well-matched to the flu vaccine.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I just keep my own council and let the fuckwits carry on if they get sick ? Oh well that’s their lookout.

I just stay away.

As for the mass groups of d*unken idiots they are doing just what they do abroad and are an embarrassment to the U.K.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I find myself almost wishing that there is a massive but localised 2nd spike traced back to Bournemouth beach. That may make a few sit up and take notice. I feel so sorry for NHS and other key workers today..

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By *exy_HornyCouple
over a year ago

Leigh

There may be another spike around Anfield from the idiocy we saw last night.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Without going into too much detail...I was told yesterday that all health professionals are being redeployed back to the hospitals next week.

And no it wasn't from my cousins best mates wife

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By *asIsaCouple
over a year ago

harrow


"Studies in Sweden have shown the virus dies out once it infects around 15% of the population with herd immunity. "

Source?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Studies in Sweden have shown the virus dies out once it infects around 15% of the population with herd immunity. "

As it stands, this statement makes no sense.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Is there actual proof that herd immunity will actually work. I was under the assumption that there is no proof that even if you have had this virus you are immune from re catching "

Antigens provide temporary to full immunity. Even if immunity is very little, you still will have produced memory cells in the blood to fight off subsequent exposures to virus, therefore your illness should not be as severe.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I just keep my own council and let the fuckwits carry on if they get sick ? Oh well that’s their lookout.

I just stay away.

As for the mass groups of d*unken idiots they are doing just what they do abroad and are an embarrassment to the U.K. "

Are you the mayor of Bristol?

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By *uyfrombristolMan
over a year ago

Bristol


"If we get herd or even most of the population immunity how can a second wave happen or be any effect be as bad as the first as the govt doom mongerers predict although this could be the second wave or is a third ever going to make any impact any worse than influenza which happens every year except 2020 where all influenza deaths are covid deaths."

Because common sense. This isn't the best place for this stuff though. How, three months into this, have people but read shit?

If Fab, in its infinite wisdom, lifts the meet bans (which let's face it, are meaningless), out didn't mean it's actually safe.

Everyone needs to exercise self regulation and control.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"There may be another spike around Anfield from the idiocy we saw last night."

These "fans" were being rather silly. If they aren't careful they could give scousers a bad name....

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire


"There may be another spike around Anfield from the idiocy we saw last night.

These "fans" were being rather silly. If they aren't careful they could give scousers a bad name...."

Agree with the above, time to celebrate collectively is later..

Thing is it seems to be everywhere, Thursday in Manchester police broke up 39 illegal gatherings..

When the pubs open its going to be chaos..

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