FabSwingers.com forum: 2nd Wave in China

By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

China is seeing a second wave and schools in Beijing are to close again.

Are we still very much in the first wave? With travel bans easing do you think there will be a second wave in the UK?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 17/06/20 09:05:36]

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Some might say that this is the second wave here.

Might it be Chyynas 3rd?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built?? "

That's a great point and I agree with you, I feel we are currently riding the second wave. I also agree with getting the ecomony going again but personally I think the lockdown was a "soft lockdown" and it was eased too quickly.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

Had the lockdown been harder it could have been released sooner.

As for another "wave" in China...."IF" we can beleive their figures it is a rather small localised spike....which we have been told we could expect too.

Same things have happened in S Korea, Philippines and several other countries

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Wouldn’t believe anything that China says, they didn’t exactly report the initial outbreak accurately.

As for us, only time will tell, depends if we’re being governed by the science / R-rating or whether it’s made up as we go along, currently feels like the latter.

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By *.D.I.D.A.SMan
over a year ago

London/Essex... ish... Romford to be exact

"Wouldn’t believe anything that China says, they didn’t exactly report the initial outbreak accurately.

As for us, only time will tell, depends if we’re being governed by the science / R-rating or whether it’s made up as we go along, currently feels like the latter."
Certainly does. The numbers show they May be getting away with it though considering all the gatherings in recent weeks. However, the consequences of all these gatherings may not be revealed until next week and beyond. But is the virus weakening too? Infections aren't necessarily being translated into symptoms or death in more cases it seems. I'm a bit of a pessimist and admit I'm surprised it seems to be controlled in most places now bar US and Brazil really.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

All 2nd waves are in countries that had very low death rate, maybe they never had enough infected to get any immunity.

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By *idewillyMan
over a year ago

portsmouth

I had id 13 weeks its a nasty horrible virus that i would never want again im lucky I survived but the after effects are your lungs and body can be hell to recover from....theres no answers it effects every person differently i properly got it because i had pneumonia as a young child....but ive fought every virus so far....and at least out and about now trying to get muscles back and lungs chest with cycling not sure if its too much though just want to be hyper me like superman...but i can tell you the uk did have this at least in October nov last year i had aold friend rushed into hospital with pneumonia and he has been back 3 times since but this time i dont think he will be returning home ..poor sod...and of course this virus is going to stay with us as people around the world are mixing thats not rocket science to figure that out...and the governments pay top money for this information have we ran out of logic..but if anyone hasit get well soon and take it easy it dan take months to recover some might not

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By *UGGYBEAR2015Man
over a year ago

BRIDPORT

Wouldn’t be at all surprised to get another outbreak.

Nothing to do with government policy, right from the beginning of the ‘lockdown’ people were travelling to where I live and camping on the beach or wherever they could find a spot.

Most people below the age of about 30 don’t seem to regard it as a problem and practise no social distancing when in public.

It doesn’t matter what governments say or do if people aren’t prepared to take responsibility for themselves.

Pity really because the vast majority of folk have made sacrifices and done the right thing.

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

I think we are better focused on reducing the levels of this rather than being concerned about what wave we may or may not be within. This won't be a flat linear progression, there will be peaks and troughs. As vaccine trials progress, we may become fortunate that we manage as a world to suppress this.

We certainly must be vigilant and hold our leaders to account. It is far better for us to make them change in real time than months after the event, when a rstudious eport gets published and needles losses of life and health have already passed.

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By *idewillyMan
over a year ago

portsmouth

You cant stop a virus without constraint....and the issue is now its travelled to far theres no cure for it theres a pill that may help but no cure just like the common cold and there may never be one....everyone can look back in hindsight but i said it back in early jan the world should of gone into complete lockdown for 3 months....then gradually opened things back up..but no overseas flights sailings for one year..yes its hard ..but theres no way you are going to get every country to agree to that or every person...so now we are left with living with the virus .....if you are going to get it you will get it and you can sleep next to someone and they wont get it if you have had it i know people who this as been the case with but most cases will be-the supermarket that where i reckon i got it from....theres no answers how long it will last without a cure or if it will evolve into something else and change structure...one big question mark who the world authorities dont know the answers or arnt telling us the answers just like where it came from...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

We have never been in lockdown more restrictions than being lockdown.. It was only the fools who traveled miles from there homes that were challenged

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

We have never been in lockdown more restrictions than being lockdown.. It was only the fools who traveled miles from there homes that were challenged "
The protesters where not

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By *aintscoupleCouple
over a year ago

st helens

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built?? "
can you post a link to 56000 flu deaths registered in the uk last year?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"China is seeing a second wave and schools in Beijing are to close again.

Are we still very much in the first wave? With travel bans easing do you think there will be a second wave in the UK? "

yes

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By *aughtyladyYummymanCouple
over a year ago

In a place not far from Exeter

"Wouldn’t be at all surprised to get another outbreak.

Nothing to do with government policy, right from the beginning of the ‘lockdown’ people were travelling to where I live and camping on the beach or wherever they could find a spot.

Most people below the age of about 30 don’t seem to regard it as a problem and practise no social distancing when in public.

It doesn’t matter what governments say or do if people aren’t prepared to take responsibility for themselves.

Pity really because the vast majority of folk have made sacrifices and done the right thing. "

We are the same in Exmouth!! The beaches have been heaving on sunny days and I am sure they aren't all locals. Lots of people are social distancing but lots of groups of young people who aren't!!

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By *69BANMan
over a year ago

Reading

[Removed by poster at 17/06/20 13:29:51]

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By *69BANMan
over a year ago

Reading

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

can you post a link to 56000 flu deaths registered in the uk last year?

Of course they can't, everything they wrote was nonsense.

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By *ylonSlutTV/TS
over a year ago

Durham

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built?? "

Incorrect 2018/2019 flu season the last published data there were less than 1700 deaths. The average flu deaths per year are around 15000. The highest was around 27000 in one year. The flu death toll depends on the strain that hits and if they get the correct vaccine that year.

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By *ylonSlutTV/TS
over a year ago

Durham

You may confusing the world death toll from flu which varies between 150000 and 560000.

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By *indobona_1TV/TS
over a year ago

Tring

Until a vaccine or effective drug becomes available, I guess authorities will have to play 'Whack-a-Mole' with localised outbreaks.

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By *sGivesWoodWoman
over a year ago

ST. AUSTELL, CORNWALL

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built?? "

I'm convinced this is the 2nd wave. Lots have had covid symptoms in my area last November and December. I think we will get a 3rd wave in the autumn.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I haven’t a bloody clue.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

I'm convinced this is the 2nd wave. Lots have had covid symptoms in my area last November and December. I think we will get a 3rd wave in the autumn. "

Or November/December they had flu?

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By *itty9899Man
over a year ago

Craggy Island

No one gives a fuck about China.

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By *razyhappyguys04Couple
over a year ago

London.

People need to stop worrying , I really think it'd not as bad as people think , the government is hiding something we had a bit of flue October 2019, all the symptoms and yes could not taste our food . Xx

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"You cant stop a virus without constraint....and the issue is now its travelled to far theres no cure for it theres a pill that may help but no cure just like the common cold and there may never be one....everyone can look back in hindsight but i said it back in early jan the world should of gone into complete lockdown for 3 months....then gradually opened things back up..but no overseas flights sailings for one year..yes its hard ..but theres no way you are going to get every country to agree to that or every person...so now we are left with living with the virus .....if you are going to get it you will get it and you can sleep next to someone and they wont get it if you have had it i know people who this as been the case with but most cases will be-the supermarket that where i reckon i got it from....theres no answers how long it will last without a cure or if it will evolve into something else and change structure...one big question mark who the world authorities dont know the answers or arnt telling us the answers just like where it came from..."

Most people outside hospital and carehome settings get it from family or close friends, people they spend alot of time with, don't scare monger and say most people get it from the supermarket.

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By *sGivesWoodWoman
over a year ago

ST. AUSTELL, CORNWALL

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

I'm convinced this is the 2nd wave. Lots have had covid symptoms in my area last November and December. I think we will get a 3rd wave in the autumn.

Or November/December they had flu?"

No, it definately wasn't flu.

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By *ewcouplemidsCouple
over a year ago

walsall

"I had id 13 weeks its a nasty horrible virus that i would never want again im lucky I survived but the after effects are your lungs and body can be hell to recover from....theres no answers it effects every person differently i properly got it because i had pneumonia as a young child....but ive fought every virus so far....and at least out and about now trying to get muscles back and lungs chest with cycling not sure if its too much though just want to be hyper me like superman...but i can tell you the uk did have this at least in October nov last year i had aold friend rushed into hospital with pneumonia and he has been back 3 times since but this time i dont think he will be returning home ..poor sod...and of course this virus is going to stay with us as people around the world are mixing thats not rocket science to figure that out...and the governments pay top money for this information have we ran out of logic..but if anyone hasit get well soon and take it easy it dan take months to recover some might not "

Glad you recovered

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I still haven't seen ANYONE post a source on this 56000+ flu deaths.

If you look for "56000 flu deaths in uk last year" you get a WEALTH of datasets showing the figure to be abour 300 or so.

Now obviously we don't really test for the flu like we have done with covid, but without any evidence, all i'm seeing is that 56,000 number to just be completely made up.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

In fact I highly suspect it's a figure regarding the deaths in the US.

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By *oft_SensualTV/TS
over a year ago

Yorkshire

The initial wave of COV19 into the UK came from people who had come from Italy and Spain...not directly from China.

A 'second wave' would only come about 'internally' as there is very little international movement at the moment.

Given that rates of infection aren't really dropping (new cases daily) then that could be a possibility.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

Interesting that people are very upset about China "not reporting" Covid-19 adequately, but we probably missed recognising it as a country at the end of last year.

Yes China is a secretive totalitarian state but they don't really want their people or those from other countries to die. Certainly incompetence with weak local governments covering up.

A lock down in China is non negotiable, unlike here.

Cummings has set a tone now that makes it very difficult.

Spinning the numbers on testing and track and trace still not functioning before easing.

Unfortunately makes another wave here more likely and once again severe.

Fingers crossed otherwise, but I find it difficult to believe

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"I still haven't seen ANYONE post a source on this 56000+ flu deaths.

If you look for "56000 flu deaths in uk last year" you get a WEALTH of datasets showing the figure to be abour 300 or so.

Now obviously we don't really test for the flu like we have done with covid, but without any evidence, all i'm seeing is that 56,000 number to just be completely made up."

On average 17,000 people die each year from flu.

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/

This is despite having an effective vaccine.

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By *utualpleasure42Man
over a year ago

enter location here

Doesn't really matter what wave number it is. There is still lots of daily deaths. 181 was the last daily rate. The gov have completely messed up their response. Proper shambles..

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By *ayboy2020Man
over a year ago

Cannock

[Removed by poster at 18/06/20 01:24:25]

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By *ayboy2020Man
over a year ago

Cannock

"Wouldn’t be at all surprised to get another outbreak.

Nothing to do with government policy, right from the beginning of the ‘lockdown’ people were travelling to where I live and camping on the beach or wherever they could find a spot.

Most people below the age of about 30 don’t seem to regard it as a problem and practise no social distancing when in public.

It doesn’t matter what governments say or do if people aren’t prepared to take responsibility for themselves.

Pity really because the vast majority of folk have made sacrifices and done the right thing. "

Can i stop you right there. Im a 23 year old who has abided by the lockdown rules and social distancing. When I go shopping for the family as I'm the youngest without any vulnerable health conditions I follow the RULES. Please don't tar every young person with the same brush. Ive noticed a lot of elderly folk not practicing social distancing. Its swings and roundabouts. Dont assume its just one part of the generation that aren't following rules.

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By *UGGYBEAR2015Man
over a year ago

BRIDPORT

"Wouldn’t be at all surprised to get another outbreak.

Nothing to do with government policy, right from the beginning of the ‘lockdown’ people were travelling to where I live and camping on the beach or wherever they could find a spot.

Most people below the age of about 30 don’t seem to regard it as a problem and practise no social distancing when in public.

It doesn’t matter what governments say or do if people aren’t prepared to take responsibility for themselves.

Pity really because the vast majority of folk have made sacrifices and done the right thing.

Try re-reading the post and maybe use some glasses.

At no point did I ‘tar every young person with the same brush’ , did I say ‘all’ people under the age of 30, no, I said ‘most’ .

I was describing MY personal experience of the situation, in, MY area. All perfectly valid points to make.

You live in a different area and have a different experience.

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By *idewillyMan
over a year ago

portsmouth

Thank you newcouplemidlands....but yes i still have the after problems you can get with the virus i just hope its not a long term effect with the lungs and chest issues ...people who think this virus is just a little cold .....no it isnt ive had pneumonia as a kid ive had swine flue nora virus the lot because i had pneumonia as a kid but covid 19 is different it breaks your body down bit by bit it takes away your muscles strength it makes you totally exhausted and attacks your lungs and breath...if you get it like i did ...and who knows if ill have long term damage..i was a big cyclist in my day raced with olympic champions etc 800 mile a week training so i thought id go for a bike ride after covid to see how my lungs chest was and body..thats when i know what damage it had done my lungs were shot and i wasn't right breathing after the ride for 2. Days and it was only a30 mins steady ride not racing...so its off the bike for a while and easier steadier exercise...so take it easy everyone enjoy what you have and i hope none of you have to go through what i have

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By *eddy and legsCouple
over a year ago

the wetlands

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

I'm convinced this is the 2nd wave. Lots have had covid symptoms in my area last November and December. I think we will get a 3rd wave in the autumn. "

You should tell the epidemiologists and the immunologists, they would be very interested.

Do you know what they did with all the bodies ?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Thank you newcouplemidlands....but yes i still have the after problems you can get with the virus i just hope its not a long term effect with the lungs and chest issues ...people who think this virus is just a little cold .....no it isnt ive had pneumonia as a kid ive had swine flue nora virus the lot because i had pneumonia as a kid but covid 19 is different it breaks your body down bit by bit it takes away your muscles strength it makes you totally exhausted and attacks your lungs and breath...if you get it like i did ...and who knows if ill have long term damage..i was a big cyclist in my day raced with olympic champions etc 800 mile a week training so i thought id go for a bike ride after covid to see how my lungs chest was and body..thats when i know what damage it had done my lungs were shot and i wasn't right breathing after the ride for 2. Days and it was only a30 mins steady ride not racing...so its off the bike for a while and easier steadier exercise...so take it easy everyone enjoy what you have and i hope none of you have to go through what i have "

Oh and I'll leave this hear one of the mean articles which quote immunologist as say the risk at the sumer market is low

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.joe.ie/amp/fitness-health/risk-getting-covid-19-grocery-shopping-small-says-immunologist-695463

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By *uited staffs guyMan
over a year ago

staffordshire

Australia had a early flu season last ‘winter’ ie August last year - it hit a month early and they were all panicked about it being the start of a pandemic - it wasn’t for some reason it just started early

As is often the case the northern hemisphere followed the south and our ‘flu’ and virus season started a month early in November/December as opposed to January

So yes there was lots of virus in December - but it was influenza- public health England swab loads and it was confirmed influenza, not covid

In addition, and very helpfully, covid pneumonia isn’t the same as normal or flu pneumonia- it looks different- so if it was circulating widely in December it would’ve been seen

Indeed it was the fact it looked so different that caused its discovery in the first place

So this is wave one

Whether there’s a wave 2 or whether it becomes one of the background ‘winter’ viruses that comes back every year, as swine flu does only time will tell

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

We watch the British news and believe that a second wave will hit the UK badly but not us so much here in France as here things are in place to cut the risk down unlike in our opinion the UK.

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By *ugby 123Couple
Forum Mod
over a year ago

O o O oo

"We watch the British news and believe that a second wave will hit the UK badly but not us so much here in France as here things are in place to cut the risk down unlike in our opinion the UK.

For interest what is different?

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By *eddy and legsCouple
over a year ago

the wetlands

"We watch the British news and believe that a second wave will hit the UK badly but not us so much here in France as here things are in place to cut the risk down unlike in our opinion the UK.

For interest what is different?"

Yes, share the magic

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By *eddy and legsCouple
over a year ago

the wetlands

Oh and I'll leave this hear one of the mean articles which quote immunologist as say the risk at the sumer market is low

What ???

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

So this 2nd wave I’ve read about time and time again.

I’m not an expert or have a medical background. But people have been been to the beach on mass, been out protesting, standing in massive lines for food and etc This has been going on for weeks and weeks.

But infections rates have been going down?

So why is it you think we will have a 2nd wave?!?!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"So this 2nd wave I’ve read about time and time again.

But infections rates have been going down?

So why is it you think we will have a 2nd wave?!?! "

Because some people don't wanna go back to work yet

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By *reyyaMan
over a year ago

North Yorkshire

"China is seeing a second wave and schools in Beijing are to close again.

Are we still very much in the first wave? With travel bans easing do you think there will be a second wave in the UK? "

If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be almost perpendicular.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"We watch the British news and believe that a second wave will hit the UK badly but not us so much here in France as here things are in place to cut the risk down unlike in our opinion the UK.

For interest what is different?"

Social distance and the wearing of face masks are the main two things.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"We watch the British news and believe that a second wave will hit the UK badly but not us so much here in France as here things are in place to cut the risk down unlike in our opinion the UK.

For interest what is different?

Social distance and the wearing of face masks are the main two things.

Why aren't these being enforced then??

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By *reyyaMan
over a year ago

North Yorkshire

If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction. "

What makes you say that??

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By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that?? "

Historical precedent would be the main reason for saying this. Micheal Osterholm knows whats he's talking about. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/21/opinions/bergen-osterholm-interview-two-opinion/index.html

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15"

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

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By *razyhappyguys04Couple
over a year ago

London.

"So this 2nd wave I’ve read about time and time again.

But infections rates have been going down?

So why is it you think we will have a 2nd wave?!?! "

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By *razyhappyguys04Couple
over a year ago

London.

"So this 2nd wave I’ve read about time and time again.

But infections rates have been going down?

So why is it you think we will have a 2nd wave?!?! "

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By *razyhappyguys04Couple
over a year ago

London.

Yes totally agree , it winds us up how so many people are brain washed into believing this so called virus is bad ,, if it was bad we would all be dropping like fly's , and have you noticed how the scientists have gone quiet, xx

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By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!?? "

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

After the spring 2020 peak, a larger wave arrives in the fall or winter of 2020 with one or more additional waves in 2021. The research says this scenario would be similar to what happened with the 1918-19 Spanish Flu.

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Cases and deaths continue to occur but it would likely not require continued mitigation but could result in hot spots of outbreak in certain locations. Past influenza pandemics didn't follow this pattern, but the research says this could happen with COVID-19.

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"We watch the British news and believe that a second wave will hit the UK badly but not us so much here in France as here things are in place to cut the risk down unlike in our opinion the UK.

For interest what is different?

Social distance and the wearing of face masks are the main two things.

Why aren't these being enforced then?? "

They are taken seriously here but watching the UK news it doesn’t seem to be the same in the UK so I don’t know.

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"China is seeing a second wave and schools in Beijing are to close again.

Are we still very much in the first wave? With travel bans easing do you think there will be a second wave in the UK? "

You’d like to think so!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu. "

I wouldn't bother with them most want at least another 2 months off work then September time once summer is gone.... They say OK let's go back to work no one as dies of covid for 2months

Let's hope they have a job to go back too

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By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu. "

Where did you get the idea that these predictions are based the Spanish Flu outbreak. Their model is based on eight pandemic influenza outbreaks since 1700, of which four occurred since 1900. Their study recognises the similarities and differences between Covid-19 and previous pandemic influenza outbreaks. If you google cidrap-covid19-viewpoint-part1_0.pdf it should be the first result.

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

I guess the part where you said "The research says this scenario would be similar to what happened with the 1918-19 Spanish Flu". How in the holy hell would two viruses at opposite ends of the dispersion factor have similar pandemics?

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Unfortunately the predictions are for a smaller 2nd and then larger 3rd waves this year

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By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out. "

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input."

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe.

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By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe. "

There hasn't been a failure on the part of science or health professionals. Science is apolitical. There has been a massive catastrophic failure of political leadership, particularly in the UK and USA.

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe.

You're just not very well informed. SIR models are not fit for purpose regarding covid19, don't get me started on all the WHO fuck ups with their no evidence of human competence, everything that came out of imperial college is bogus and has proven wildly inaccurate. Yes the politicians have been completely shit and so have the stooges they surround themselves with. There have been plently of experts who did get it right, but they were ignored by the politicians and thrown off YouTube for contradicting the WHO.

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By *ugby 123Couple
Forum Mod
over a year ago

O o O oo

"We watch the British news and believe that a second wave will hit the UK badly but not us so much here in France as here things are in place to cut the risk down unlike in our opinion the UK.

For interest what is different?

Social distance and the wearing of face masks are the main two things.

Why aren't these being enforced then??

They are taken seriously here but watching the UK news it doesn’t seem to be the same in the UK so I don’t know.

Do you mean the public are making sure they do it or is it enforced if you don't?

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe.

Really?

So why is it that the countries that that followed the WHO guidelines have had the lowest death rates and infection rates?

What has been "bogus" and "proven wrong" from Imperial College?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Yes the mindset of the public to us seems different here than in the UK,just our opinion of course and not a proven fact.

When out shopping 95% are wearing masks and those that don’t just tend to stand out more and can be avoided because masks are just the norm even though they are only law on public transport but here they are easy to buy.

We had a meal in a restaurant last Saturday and it was a lovely no drama hour because every one knew the rules and followed them.

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe.

Really?

So why is it that the countries that that followed the WHO guidelines have had the lowest death rates and infection rates?

What has been "bogus" and "proven wrong" from Imperial College?"

Actually the best countries have been the ones who entirely ignored the WHO and took action when the WHO was still claiming there was no evidence of human to human transmission. If you're up to date on the science then you would now realise that it was impossible 530,000 people could ever die from covid19, but clearly you aren't. So spare me the pseudo debate because I'm not arguing gravity with a flat earther.

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By *uyfrombristolMan
over a year ago

Bristol

"No one gives a fuck about China. "

I do.

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By *ionelhutzMan
over a year ago

liverpool

"No one gives a fuck about China. "

The Chinese probably too tbf

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe.

Really?

So why is it that the countries that that followed the WHO guidelines have had the lowest death rates and infection rates?

What has been "bogus" and "proven wrong" from Imperial College?

South Korea, Taiwan and Germany completely ignored the WHO guidelines?

Okay.

There was no evidence of human to human transmission available to the WHO when they made that statement so it was rather difficult to say otherwise.

530,000 deaths if nothing was done, based in the data available and the assumptions that had been made.

Guess what? Something was done and new information about infection rates and methods of spread are available.

The world is spherical for me.

I think you are the one struggling with the science.

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe.

Really?

So why is it that the countries that that followed the WHO guidelines have had the lowest death rates and infection rates?

What has been "bogus" and "proven wrong" from Imperial College?

South Korea, Taiwan and Germany completely ignored the WHO guidelines?

Okay.

There was no evidence of human to human transmission available to the WHO when they made that statement so it was rather difficult to say otherwise.

530,000 deaths if nothing was done, based in the data available and the assumptions that had been made.

Guess what? Something was done and new information about infection rates and methods of spread are available.

The world is spherical for me.

I think you are the one struggling with the science."

No evidence of human to human transmission in mid-January, oh the cringe. It was already in europe by December. Why do you think Taiwan were temperature testing inbound flights from Wuhan as of december 31st if they were following WHO advice.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe.

Really?

So why is it that the countries that that followed the WHO guidelines have had the lowest death rates and infection rates?

What has been "bogus" and "proven wrong" from Imperial College?

South Korea, Taiwan and Germany completely ignored the WHO guidelines?

Okay.

There was no evidence of human to human transmission available to the WHO when they made that statement so it was rather difficult to say otherwise.

530,000 deaths if nothing was done, based in the data available and the assumptions that had been made.

Guess what? Something was done and new information about infection rates and methods of spread are available.

The world is spherical for me.

I think you are the one struggling with the science.

The WHO can only act on the information that they are given by governments.

China informed them of an epidemic on 3 January.

So your saying that they started their work four entire days early on 31 December. Of course China and Taiwan have no links whatsoever and there is absolutely no way that they may have got wind of that

Did any European country inform the WHO of the presence of a new virus in December?

What did South Korea, Singapore and Germany do?

Did we follow the WHO guidelines that they provided us with in 2009?

How's that working out for us?

Tell me some more about epidemiological studies. You've got some reading to do to justify your pronouncements I think.

Who would you like to blame next?

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe.

Really?

So why is it that the countries that that followed the WHO guidelines have had the lowest death rates and infection rates?

What has been "bogus" and "proven wrong" from Imperial College?

South Korea, Taiwan and Germany completely ignored the WHO guidelines?

Okay.

There was no evidence of human to human transmission available to the WHO when they made that statement so it was rather difficult to say otherwise.

530,000 deaths if nothing was done, based in the data available and the assumptions that had been made.

Guess what? Something was done and new information about infection rates and methods of spread are available.

The world is spherical for me.

I think you are the one struggling with the science.

The WHO can only act on the information that they are given by governments.

China informed them of an epidemic on 3 January.

Did any European country inform the WHO of the presence of a new virus in December?

What did South Korea, Singapore and Germany do?

Did we follow the WHO guidelines that they provided us with in 2009?

How's that working out for us?

Tell me some more about epidemiological studies. You've got some reading to do to justify your pronouncements I think.

Who would you like to blame next?"

As I say, gravity and flat earth. Any reasonably intelligent person can see the obvious flaws in your argument so just keep embarrassing yourself without me.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"If there is a second wave I think maybe the following will be apparent. In the very early stage of a second wave the line on the graph will be in an almost perpendicular upwards direction.

What makes you say that??

It's worth listening to the Nytimes podcast from Jun 15

How do we not know this isn't the 2nd wave!??

Here are 3 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Peaks and valleys

First wave in spring 2020 (now) followed by a series of smaller waves that last through the summer and consistently over the next year or two, gradually diminishing in 2021.

This scenario could feature outbreaks that vary by location and would depend on what types of mitigation are enforced.

Scenario 2: Fall (Autumn) peak

Influenza pandemics in 1957-58 and 2009-10 followed a similar pattern.

Scenario 3: Slow burn

Osterholms is thinking scenario 2 is the most probable due to the way COVID-19 is transmitted.

The spanish flu had a dispersion factor of 1.0 whilst covid19 has a dispersion factor of 0.15 so I'm afraid I can't take anyone seriously who is making comparisons with the spanish flu.

Pay attention to pages 3 and 4 to that pdf, they basically told you why their models are bollocks. Shit in. Shit out.

The similarity with the Spanish flu is a similar scenario, ie, a strong resurgence of the virus. I'm sure the team that undertook the study would appreciate your qualified input.

The blind faith in authority of some is hilarious. We're 6 months in and easily in the top 3 worst effected countries, but you still think the experts have got it all under control. Cringe.

Really?

So why is it that the countries that that followed the WHO guidelines have had the lowest death rates and infection rates?

What has been "bogus" and "proven wrong" from Imperial College?

South Korea, Taiwan and Germany completely ignored the WHO guidelines?

Okay.

There was no evidence of human to human transmission available to the WHO when they made that statement so it was rather difficult to say otherwise.

530,000 deaths if nothing was done, based in the data available and the assumptions that had been made.

Guess what? Something was done and new information about infection rates and methods of spread are available.

The world is spherical for me.

I think you are the one struggling with the science.

The WHO can only act on the information that they are given by governments.

China informed them of an epidemic on 3 January.

Did any European country inform the WHO of the presence of a new virus in December?

What did South Korea, Singapore and Germany do?

Did we follow the WHO guidelines that they provided us with in 2009?

How's that working out for us?

Tell me some more about epidemiological studies. You've got some reading to do to justify your pronouncements I think.

Who would you like to blame next?

As I say, gravity and flat earth. Any reasonably intelligent person can see the obvious flaws in your argument so just keep embarrassing yourself without me. "

Excellent logical argument about something else.

Except you cannot find any "obvious" flaws to point out it seems.

You defined the terms so it appears you have identified who you are

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

There is a lot of opportunity for this virus to come back for a second wave. I may be proved wrong but the relaxation in social distancing will only result in a rise in cases. There are lots of videos on youtube. Spanish Flu (out last pandemic) only 100 years ago came back for three phases. With the second and third phase being more deadly than the first. I hope this is not going to be the case.

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

"There is a lot of opportunity for this virus to come back for a second wave. I may be proved wrong but the relaxation in social distancing will only result in a rise in cases. There are lots of videos on youtube. Spanish Flu (out last pandemic) only 100 years ago came back for three phases. With the second and third phase being more deadly than the first. I hope this is not going to be the case. "

How come there's no rise in cases or deaths in the UK or US, now that it's 3 weeks since the mass protests started?

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By *rank speakerMan
over a year ago

Worcester

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

Talking of waves. I had a weekend away in Bourton on the water 29/2 this year and it was overrun with Chinese! All in groups of 6+ roaming from shop to shop and not a face mask in sight!

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

How come there's no rise in cases or deaths in the UK or US, now that it's 3 weeks since the mass protests started? "

Something to do with a laughable test, track and trace system probably.

It is a curious thing to do to claim that there is no pandemic in the midst of a verifiable pandemic.

Especially as you have been criticising the WHO for not taking adequate action early enough

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

Iran is the country hitting an actual second wave rather than a local spike.

Infection rates have risen above there previous peak again after having subsided.

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By *ustfun 1984Man
over a year ago

exeter

If it happens it happens all the talk and debate on here wont change a thing

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"If it happens it happens all the talk and debate on here wont change a thing

We could continue to consider our behaviour and wear a mask in enclosed areas to protect others and wash our hands regularly to protect ourselves.

If this "debate" reminds us of this and that it hasn't gone away then there is a benefit to this.

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By *ustfun 1984Man
over a year ago

exeter

"If it happens it happens all the talk and debate on here wont change a thing

We could continue to consider our behaviour and wear a mask in enclosed areas to protect others and wash our hands regularly to protect ourselves.

If this "debate" reminds us of this and that it hasn't gone away then there is a benefit to this."

There are sheep and there are shepherds you will never change opinion of it just the FLU brigade

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

Here's some actual information.

To be clear China does not have a second wave, it has a localised spike as have South Korea and Germany, all of who are effectively testing, tracking and tracing so that these events can be contained.

Sadly, I do not think that we have such good measures in place.

Iran may have a real second wave.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53113785

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

With the holiday season going to start, we can blame the travel industry as the second wave will be knocking on the door sooner than we think, it is very irresponsible from them.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"56000 flu deaths in UK last year.... Who's to say that covid19 wasn't about then and the government only realised towards the end and this is the 2nd wave which they thought was going to be worse

Resulting in all lockdown and hospitals being built??

I think you were looking at the USA figures for 59000 flu deaths, the UK has a medium figure of around 8000 deaths from flu each year

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By *yn drwgMan
over a year ago

Camarthen

"With the holiday season going to start, we can blame the travel industry as the second wave will be knocking on the door sooner than we think, it is very irresponsible from them."

No one is forcing anyone to go on holiday you make your choice and you take the consequences.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Trump is continuing with his presidential rally and hardly anyone in the crowd can be seen wearing a mask and large groups gathering in venues...this says it all to me. This along with travel companies soon to be operating again is a recepie for disaster. It's just a question on when.

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By *yn drwgMan
over a year ago

Camarthen

"Trump is continuing with his presidential rally and hardly anyone in the crowd can be seen wearing a mask and large groups gathering in venues...this says it all to me. This along with travel companies soon to be operating again is a recepie for disaster. It's just a question on when. "

When for what?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

When for what? "

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

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By *yn drwgMan
over a year ago

Camarthen

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse"

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts."

I totally agree with you mate

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"With the holiday season going to start, we can blame the travel industry as the second wave will be knocking on the door sooner than we think, it is very irresponsible from them.

No one is forcing anyone to go on holiday you make your choice and you take the consequences."

You don't just take the consequences for yourself.

You may well impose them on others who made no such choice.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts."

Why do you trust "so called experts" for some things and not others?

"So called experts" design the planes you fly in, the bridges you drive across, the vaccines that prevent illness and the medicines that treat it.

Why do you trust these "so called experts" and not others?

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

"With the holiday season going to start, we can blame the travel industry as the second wave will be knocking on the door sooner than we think, it is very irresponsible from them.

No one is forcing anyone to go on holiday you make your choice and you take the consequences.

You don't just take the consequences for yourself.

You may well impose them on others who made no such choice."

So you condemn the lack of social distancing at the BLM protests then?

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts.

Why do you trust "so called experts" for some things and not others?

"So called experts" design the planes you fly in, the bridges you drive across, the vaccines that prevent illness and the medicines that treat it.

Why do you trust these "so called experts" and not others?"

Because planes actually fly in the way that the engineers expect them to. Unlike the bullshit Imperial College model, which never resembles anything in the real world.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts.

Why do you trust "so called experts" for some things and not others?

"So called experts" design the planes you fly in, the bridges you drive across, the vaccines that prevent illness and the medicines that treat it.

Why do you trust these "so called experts" and not others?

Because planes actually fly in the way that the engineers expect them to. Unlike the bullshit Imperial College model, which never resembles anything in the real world. "

Planes crash.

Bridges collapse.

Patients die.

Why do you choose to trust some "so called experts" and not others.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"With the holiday season going to start, we can blame the travel industry as the second wave will be knocking on the door sooner than we think, it is very irresponsible from them.

No one is forcing anyone to go on holiday you make your choice and you take the consequences.

You don't just take the consequences for yourself.

You may well impose them on others who made no such choice.

So you condemn the lack of social distancing at the BLM protests then? "

Yes.

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts.

Why do you trust "so called experts" for some things and not others?

"So called experts" design the planes you fly in, the bridges you drive across, the vaccines that prevent illness and the medicines that treat it.

Why do you trust these "so called experts" and not others?

Because planes actually fly in the way that the engineers expect them to. Unlike the bullshit Imperial College model, which never resembles anything in the real world.

Planes crash.

Bridges collapse.

Patients die.

Why do you choose to trust some "so called experts" and not others."

Maybe you should do some research into how often planes crash because of design faults vs how many predictions imperial college have ever gotten right. Your false equivalency is overwhelming.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts.

Why do you trust "so called experts" for some things and not others?

"So called experts" design the planes you fly in, the bridges you drive across, the vaccines that prevent illness and the medicines that treat it.

Why do you trust these "so called experts" and not others?

Because planes actually fly in the way that the engineers expect them to. Unlike the bullshit Imperial College model, which never resembles anything in the real world.

Planes crash.

Bridges collapse.

Patients die.

Why do you choose to trust some "so called experts" and not others.

Maybe you should do some research into how often planes crash because of design faults vs how many predictions imperial college have ever gotten right. Your false equivalency is overwhelming. "

Imperial College did and continue to do a significant amount of research into everything from aerodynamics to engines to structures.

A lot of engineers go on to work in the aerospace industry.

They get a lot of predictions right about a lot of things.

Curiously, the thing about a prediction is that it uses the data available.

Curiously, when you predict many deaths as a consequence of not taking any action and then you take action, there are not as many deaths.

Do you try to make a personal attack next time? I noticed that you already tried

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts.

Why do you trust "so called experts" for some things and not others?

"So called experts" design the planes you fly in, the bridges you drive across, the vaccines that prevent illness and the medicines that treat it.

Why do you trust these "so called experts" and not others?

Because planes actually fly in the way that the engineers expect them to. Unlike the bullshit Imperial College model, which never resembles anything in the real world.

Planes crash.

Bridges collapse.

Patients die.

Why do you choose to trust some "so called experts" and not others.

Maybe you should do some research into how often planes crash because of design faults vs how many predictions imperial college have ever gotten right. Your false equivalency is overwhelming.

Imperial College did and continue to do a significant amount of research into everything from aerodynamics to engines to structures.

A lot of engineers go on to work in the aerospace industry.

They get a lot of predictions right about a lot of things.

Curiously, the thing about a prediction is that it uses the data available.

Curiously, when you predict many deaths as a consequence of not taking any action and then you take action, there are not as many deaths.

Do you try to make a personal attack next time? I noticed that you already tried

The reason I think you're dumb is because you seem to think you are clever by referring to the whole of imperial college, as opposed to the infectious diseases team than any reasonably intelligent person would understand I was referring to. It's tiresome to talk to you because unless I spell out the full name, you'll go off on a tangent like this. The obvious answer to your stupid question is that we trust experts that have track records and not ones that don't.

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By *hickennchipsWoman
over a year ago

up above the streets and houses

Damn there are some rude people on here

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"Damn there are some rude people on here

You noticed?

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By *hickennchipsWoman
over a year ago

up above the streets and houses

"Damn there are some rude people on here

You noticed?

I noticed it on several threads, always the same. Makes the thread off putting to post on. Shame

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts.

Why do you trust "so called experts" for some things and not others?

"So called experts" design the planes you fly in, the bridges you drive across, the vaccines that prevent illness and the medicines that treat it.

Why do you trust these "so called experts" and not others?

Because planes actually fly in the way that the engineers expect them to. Unlike the bullshit Imperial College model, which never resembles anything in the real world.

Planes crash.

Bridges collapse.

Patients die.

Why do you choose to trust some "so called experts" and not others.

Maybe you should do some research into how often planes crash because of design faults vs how many predictions imperial college have ever gotten right. Your false equivalency is overwhelming.

Imperial College did and continue to do a significant amount of research into everything from aerodynamics to engines to structures.

A lot of engineers go on to work in the aerospace industry.

They get a lot of predictions right about a lot of things.

Curiously, the thing about a prediction is that it uses the data available.

Curiously, when you predict many deaths as a consequence of not taking any action and then you take action, there are not as many deaths.

Do you try to make a personal attack next time? I noticed that you already tried

You have behaved as predicted in my model.

I gave you a very clear reason why the 500,000 deaths predicted if no action was taken did not come to pass.

Action was taken and 42,000 people have died to date.

This, to you, appears to prove the model wrong and seems to make you very angry. I have no idea why.

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By *y Favorite PornstarCouple
over a year ago

Basingstoke

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts.

Why do you trust "so called experts" for some things and not others?

"So called experts" design the planes you fly in, the bridges you drive across, the vaccines that prevent illness and the medicines that treat it.

Why do you trust these "so called experts" and not others?

Because planes actually fly in the way that the engineers expect them to. Unlike the bullshit Imperial College model, which never resembles anything in the real world.

Planes crash.

Bridges collapse.

Patients die.

Why do you choose to trust some "so called experts" and not others.

Maybe you should do some research into how often planes crash because of design faults vs how many predictions imperial college have ever gotten right. Your false equivalency is overwhelming.

Imperial College did and continue to do a significant amount of research into everything from aerodynamics to engines to structures.

A lot of engineers go on to work in the aerospace industry.

They get a lot of predictions right about a lot of things.

Curiously, the thing about a prediction is that it uses the data available.

Curiously, when you predict many deaths as a consequence of not taking any action and then you take action, there are not as many deaths.

Do you try to make a personal attack next time? I noticed that you already tried

You have behaved as predicted in my model.

I gave you a very clear reason why the 500,000 deaths predicted if no action was taken did not come to pass.

Action was taken and 42,000 people have died to date.

This, to you, appears to prove the model wrong and seems to make you very angry. I have no idea why."

That's because you're not very well informed and you don't understand that 530,000 was never possible under any circumstances. Anyway, I've answered your question. We trust experts who have track records. The track records of planes are excellent. The track record of modelling pandemics at imperial college is abysmal. I gather you don't understand why, but I'm not the one to explain it to you.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I wish there was a popcorn emoji here...

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

When for what?

When we see the second wave. History has a habit of repeating itself and second waves are usually worse

No one has a clue how this virus will develop or react it pure guess work from the so called experts.

Why do you trust "so called experts" for some things and not others?

"So called experts" design the planes you fly in, the bridges you drive across, the vaccines that prevent illness and the medicines that treat it.

Why do you trust these "so called experts" and not others?

Because planes actually fly in the way that the engineers expect them to. Unlike the bullshit Imperial College model, which never resembles anything in the real world.

Planes crash.

Bridges collapse.

Patients die.

Why do you choose to trust some "so called experts" and not others.

Maybe you should do some research into how often planes crash because of design faults vs how many predictions imperial college have ever gotten right. Your false equivalency is overwhelming.

Imperial College did and continue to do a significant amount of research into everything from aerodynamics to engines to structures.

A lot of engineers go on to work in the aerospace industry.

They get a lot of predictions right about a lot of things.

Curiously, the thing about a prediction is that it uses the data available.

Curiously, when you predict many deaths as a consequence of not taking any action and then you take action, there are not as many deaths.

Do you try to make a personal attack next time? I noticed that you already tried

You have behaved as predicted in my model.

I gave you a very clear reason why the 500,000 deaths predicted if no action was taken did not come to pass.

Action was taken and 42,000 people have died to date.

This, to you, appears to prove the model wrong and seems to make you very angry. I have no idea why.

Your arrogance and disdain is noted.

You are never the one to explain anything and you appear unable to.

Before you try, you will be aware that the model develops over time and can only be as good as the input data available.

Why do you think that the Imperial College is used?

Do feel free to provide an alternative epidemiological that you would recommend, or have perhaps formulated yourself.

For those who wish to read something more interesting than this ding-dong this article in The Atlantic is very readable https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/04/coronavirus-models-arent-supposed-be-right/609271/

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By *rct4Man
over a year ago

Manchester

"Wouldn’t believe anything that China says, they didn’t exactly report the initial outbreak accurately.

As for us, only time will tell, depends if we’re being governed by the science / R-rating or whether it’s made up as we go along, currently feels like the latter."
bang on the button

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"Wouldn’t believe anything that China says, they didn’t exactly report the initial outbreak accurately.

As for us, only time will tell, depends if we’re being governed by the science / R-rating or whether it’s made up as we go along, currently feels like the latter. bang on the button "

Sadly the R number is also based on a lack of effective testing, tracking and tracing too.

The entire release of lockdown is now a political process.

We know this.

The scientists and medics are nowhere in site as they might answer questions...

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