FabSwingers.com forum: The R rate

By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

Hello,

I don't follow the news in the way I did in the early days of the virus, I just catch up every couple of days.

Please can someone explain this to me.

Some of our local schools were supposed to be going back tomorrow, however parents have been emailed over the weekend to say that because the R rate has risen above 1, they have decided to leave opening for another 2 weeks.

Drive thru restaurants, small, non essential shops, takeaways and garden centres reopening.

The part of the North West I live in already has a very high infection rate. We aren't taking social distancing seriously, out beaches and beauty spots are crowded etc.

So my question is , how does the government think the R rate going to be lower 2 weeks from now?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

They don’t and we won’t know until the time form what I’ve been hearing is there’s a big device between north and south and that’s causing issues but I’m sure that will all change to in a few weeks and the south will have a big spike again

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By *amissCouple
over a year ago

chelmsford

"They don’t and we won’t know until the time form what I’ve been hearing is there’s a big device between north and south and that’s causing issues but I’m sure that will all change to in a few weeks and the south will have a big spike again "

Yes...

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By *amissCouple
over a year ago

chelmsford

Now on tv talking about local lockdowns in Manchester and Liverpool, as they have 'serious concerns'.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

So basically if they are waiting for the R rate to drop below 1 again ( not that I believe it did in the first place) some schools may not open this year?

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Now on tv talking about local lockdowns in Manchester and Liverpool, as they have 'serious concerns'."

It doesn't surprise me. Liverpool streets and parks don't look any different to any other summer's day right now

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By *amissCouple
over a year ago

chelmsford

"So basically if they are waiting for the R rate to drop below 1 again ( not that I believe it did in the first place) some schools may not open this year?"

That's a possibility...

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By *amissCouple
over a year ago

chelmsford

"Now on tv talking about local lockdowns in Manchester and Liverpool, as they have 'serious concerns'.

It doesn't surprise me. Liverpool streets and parks don't look any different to any other summer's day right now

Not good is it...

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By *amissCouple
over a year ago

chelmsford

Anywhere that has had protests will potentially see a rise in infections.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Aren’t they now slowly reopening things, with the view to control hotspots! So if we see a spike “Blackpool” for instance, they will close the area down again?

Might be more problematic with all these demonstrations going on, and people traveling far and wide to participate.

Close the country down for 2 weeks. No movement, then reopen? Not sure how long the economy can sustain this??

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By *amissCouple
over a year ago

chelmsford

"Aren’t they now slowly reopening things, with the view to control hotspots! So if we see a spike “Blackpool” for instance, they will close the area down again?

Might be more problematic with all these demonstrations going on, and people traveling far and wide to participate.

Close the country down for 2 weeks. No movement, then reopen? Not sure how long the economy can sustain this?? "

Yes local lockdowns

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By *ittleMissCaliWoman
over a year ago

all loved up

"So basically if they are waiting for the R rate to drop below 1 again ( not that I believe it did in the first place) some schools may not open this year?"
it has in many places.. london for instance. Where I live it's never been above 1. In fact my 5mile radius we have had not even 1000 cases x

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By *ebjonnsonMan
over a year ago

Maldon

Don’t mean to be a cynic but the feeling I get is the R level is just a very loose guess.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Good interview on Marr this morning. One of the Sage profs said its MUCH lower in comunity but because higher in care homes and hospitals it has skewed the R number because of the weighting given to these places.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Now on tv talking about local lockdowns in Manchester and Liverpool, as they have 'serious concerns'.

It doesn't surprise me. Liverpool streets and parks don't look any different to any other summer's day right now

Not good is it..."

No, it's heartbreaking to see so many of my friends and family missing each other because they are taking the government advice seriously, then to go for a walk with my dogs and see hundreds of people in the country parks and beaches, in large groups

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Don’t mean to be a cynic but the feeling I get is the R level is just a very loose guess."

Same here.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Good interview on Marr this morning. One of the Sage profs said its MUCH lower in comunity but because higher in care homes and hospitals it has skewed the R number because of the weighting given to these places."

Ah ok, that's interesting

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By *latinumkittenWoman
over a year ago

from Home Counties to Middle Earth

We've got nothing going on in our sleepy hollow, yet we're all still locked down. There was talk about releasing our locality ahead of everywhere else as a trial but that's all gone quiet.

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By *amissCouple
over a year ago

chelmsford

"Now on tv talking about local lockdowns in Manchester and Liverpool, as they have 'serious concerns'.

It doesn't surprise me. Liverpool streets and parks don't look any different to any other summer's day right now

Not good is it...

I think the government have lost control. No mass gatherings...ok.. We can't visit our families as a whole, as there are six in each family..maybe we should have met up at a protest march..

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By *apiomanMan
over a year ago

Shipley

The problem is that the R rate isn’t an exact but an estimate, and the government seems to pick the most optimistic part of the range. The whole of lockdown became a farce once the Dominic Cummings story broke. People needed an excuse to make their own version of the rules and he gave it to them.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

Like the OP I am on the Wirral and the R rate is alarmingly high,for me it needs to be lower than 0.5 before I will even have a social life.

My rule not Boris's I trust myself more

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

As there are areas with a higher R value, it makes sense to help to protect people, if slowing the reopening is done in the worst areas. In the earlier stages, numbers of people infected were doubling every 2 or 3 days. A lot can change in a couple of weeks, including allowing for a more intelligent assessment of whether it is safe enough to open schools etc. It may be more or less dangerous in 2 weeks but may also save some lives by pausing.

As there is greater mingling of people now, it's easier for infections to be passed around between environments.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Boris has acted too hastily releasing lockdown. He has put the economy before people and many more lives will be lost. The virus starts displaying symptoms between 2 and 14 days after infection. A second wave is imminent

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

This is what I think too, which is why I was wondering why they think in 2 weeks time we are going to be in a better situation to open schools.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Boris has acted too hastily releasing lockdown. He has put the economy before people and many more lives will be lost. The virus starts displaying symptoms between 2 and 14 days after infection. A second wave is imminent "
Yes just like Italy France and Spain. Thousands dying there because they come out of lockdown when the R rate was still 0.7

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By *ancs_tgirl_38TV/TS
over a year ago

Blackpool

No deaths in London, past 24 hours, just the news.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Boris has acted too hastily releasing lockdown. He has put the economy before people and many more lives will be lost. The virus starts displaying symptoms between 2 and 14 days after infection. A second wave is imminent Yes just like Italy France and Spain. Thousands dying there because they come out of lockdown when the R rate was still 0.7 "

Their daily rates are way down, in single figures.

London 0 in 24 hours, scotland 0 in 48 hours....but Scotland had highest R rate just a couple of weeks ago....

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

The R rate is a made up number, they use 10 different sets of figures and then pick a number lol

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By *ittleMissCaliWoman
over a year ago

all loved up

"Boris has acted too hastily releasing lockdown. He has put the economy before people and many more lives will be lost. The virus starts displaying symptoms between 2 and 14 days after infection. A second wave is imminent "
but more people were at risk If we didnt remove some of lock down..

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By *alisburycplCouple
over a year ago

Salisbury

"Boris has acted too hastily releasing lockdown. He has put the economy before people and many more lives will be lost. The virus starts displaying symptoms between 2 and 14 days after infection. A second wave is imminent Yes just like Italy France and Spain. Thousands dying there because they come out of lockdown when the R rate was still 0.7 "

Where did you get your info from?

Deaths seem low in Italy and spain

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By *ownhouseTwosomeCouple
over a year ago

Birkenhead/Liverpool

"Now on tv talking about local lockdowns in Manchester and Liverpool, as they have 'serious concerns'.

It doesn't surprise me. Liverpool streets and parks don't look any different to any other summer's day right now

Not good is it..."

In the area of Liverpool where we live, it's been busy on the roads and parks for weeks!!! I was FUMING everytime I saw people flaunting the rules as it means we'll be closed for longer, but I give up now. You can't change stupid and I'm no longer getting wound up over idiots

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Boris has acted too hastily releasing lockdown. He has put the economy before people and many more lives will be lost. The virus starts displaying symptoms between 2 and 14 days after infection. A second wave is imminent Yes just like Italy France and Spain. Thousands dying there because they come out of lockdown when the R rate was still 0.7

Where did you get your info from?

Deaths seem low in Italy and spain"
I was pointing out Europe is ok but people here are crying about a second wave being sarcastic lol

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By *amissCouple
over a year ago

chelmsford

"Now on tv talking about local lockdowns in Manchester and Liverpool, as they have 'serious concerns'.

It doesn't surprise me. Liverpool streets and parks don't look any different to any other summer's day right now

Not good is it...

I agree

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Let’s hope the R1 continues to creep down even though people took easing of lockdown as lockdown is lifted.

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By *teveuk77Man
over a year ago

"Boris has acted too hastily releasing lockdown. He has put the economy before people and many more lives will be lost. The virus starts displaying symptoms between 2 and 14 days after infection. A second wave is imminent Yes just like Italy France and Spain. Thousands dying there because they come out of lockdown when the R rate was still 0.7

Where did you get your info from?

Deaths seem low in Italy and spain"

I wondered the same. Both showing clear reduction in number of cases on worldometers. France cases look to have gone compared to last week which is concerning.

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By *reya73Woman
over a year ago

Whitley Bay

"Now on tv talking about local lockdowns in Manchester and Liverpool, as they have 'serious concerns'.

It doesn't surprise me. Liverpool streets and parks don't look any different to any other summer's day right now

Not good is it...

I agree

We are not in full lockdown and one size doesn't fit all. People will choose their freedoms in some areas and not in others. Those who need to shield are still shielding. We have control measures in shops and much more awareness as we move about than just before lockdown. Plenty people still in strict quarantine. I'm trusting that the numbers will keep coming down.

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By *ust RachelTV/TS
over a year ago

Horsham

I have mates that live in St. Helens asking how can things open up, when their R rate is just over 1.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I have a friend who lives in Cheshire. In a population of 380,000 they had two new cases at the weekend. The leader of Cheshire East claims their r rate is 0.5.

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