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Would be possible the number of deaths be bigger

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By *nlivene OP   TV/TS
over a year ago

Selby

The official statistics only report who have died in hospitals but then there's care homes where elderly they die and are not been tested in other hand care homes now cannot refuse new admission of elderly .

Can the number of people infected be bigger then we think?

People only are been tested when admitted in hospitals , everybody else is not been tested

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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago

Masked and Distant

All numbers can be bigger.

Scotland now counting people who die who might have, who are presumed to have it.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"All numbers can be bigger.

Scotland now counting people who die who might have, who are presumed to have it. "

And in care homes too.... rest of uk need to catch up and follow suit to give a truer picture.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"All numbers can be bigger.

Scotland now counting people who die who might have, who are presumed to have it.

And in care homes too.... rest of uk need to catch up and follow suit to give a truer picture."

Didn't I see something yesterday where 15 people died in a care home? Surely these were included in the figures?

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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago

Masked and Distant


"All numbers can be bigger.

Scotland now counting people who die who might have, who are presumed to have it.

And in care homes too.... rest of uk need to catch up and follow suit to give a truer picture."

Problem is the "lag" in the other reported deaths, the vast majority of deaths reported yesterday occured between 1st and 5th of April. Inky around 168(ish) I think actually died in hospital yesterday. (BBC news reports not fb Twitter or anything else).

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By *naswingdressWoman
over a year ago

Manchester (she/her)

It's likely that most statistics everywhere are underestimating the true figures

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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago

Masked and Distant


"All numbers can be bigger.

Scotland now counting people who die who might have, who are presumed to have it.

And in care homes too.... rest of uk need to catch up and follow suit to give a truer picture.

Didn't I see something yesterday where 15 people died in a care home? Surely these were included in the figures?"

Need to listen carefully to what they are actually saying,

"Upto 5pm yesterday"

"Of those admitted to hospital, sadly xxx have died"

Which means, deaths can be from any date before that, just not counted before, and only those admitted to hospital.

Devil is in the detail.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Yes there are two set of figures.

Listening to the briefing yesterday sir Patrick explained this. It’s not that it’s deaths are being hidden but works something like the following:

Daily numbers are hospital deaths only. He explained there are used and are useful because most other countries use this way of reporting. This is also used daily as it is an easy way of getting numbers.

Then there is/will be the ONS (office of National Statistics) figures which I believe will include are home deaths and deaths medical professionals believe Co-vid19 was present. This figure if I remember correctly is/will be released every Tuesday.

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By *iss_tressWoman
over a year ago

London

To get a "truer" figure you have to look at the ONS monthly report.

Stats mentioned daily are only from hospital deaths.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"All numbers can be bigger.

Scotland now counting people who die who might have, who are presumed to have it.

And in care homes too.... rest of uk need to catch up and follow suit to give a truer picture.

Didn't I see something yesterday where 15 people died in a care home? Surely these were included in the figures?

Need to listen carefully to what they are actually saying,

"Upto 5pm yesterday"

"Of those admitted to hospital, sadly xxx have died"

Which means, deaths can be from any date before that, just not counted before, and only those admitted to hospital.

Devil is in the detail."

You are indeed correct. I was aware of this, it just hadn't clicked

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By *iss_tressWoman
over a year ago

London


"Yes there are two set of figures.

Listening to the briefing yesterday sir Patrick explained this. It’s not that it’s deaths are being hidden but works something like the following:

Daily numbers are hospital deaths only. He explained there are used and are useful because most other countries use this way of reporting. This is also used daily as it is an easy way of getting numbers.

Then there is/will be the ONS (office of National Statistics) figures which I believe will include are home deaths and deaths medical professionals believe Co-vid19 was present. This figure if I remember correctly is/will be released every Tuesday. "

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

Didn't I see something yesterday where 15 people died in a care home? Surely these were included in the figures?"

No, the daily figures include people who are confirmed to have died in hospital in that 24 hours

That means some that died in that 24 hours and some that died before that period, but whose deaths have been attributed to Covid19 in the last 24 hours

It doesn’t include community deaths. The ONS for England and the NRS for Scotland are compiling figures of all deaths. They’ll be weekly in Scotland and will be higher as they’ll include care hone deaths

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By *eeBee67Man
over a year ago

Masked and Distant


"Yes there are two set of figures.

Listening to the briefing yesterday sir Patrick explained this. It’s not that it’s deaths are being hidden but works something like the following:

Daily numbers are hospital deaths only. He explained there are used and are useful because most other countries use this way of reporting. This is also used daily as it is an easy way of getting numbers.

Then there is/will be the ONS (office of National Statistics) figures which I believe will include are home deaths and deaths medical professionals believe Co-vid19 was present. This figure if I remember correctly is/will be released every Tuesday. "

Yep every tuesday with details Upto the previous tuesday. Last set of data upto 27th March.

Think I'm going to keep the shortcut as it is really interesting data.

PS. ONS figures, the risk of dying from covid 19 is practically identical to normal chance of dying for each age group.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

Didn't I see something yesterday where 15 people died in a care home? Surely these were included in the figures?

No, the daily figures include people who are confirmed to have died in hospital in that 24 hours

That means some that died in that 24 hours and some that died before that period, but whose deaths have been attributed to Covid19 in the last 24 hours

It doesn’t include community deaths. The ONS for England and the NRS for Scotland are compiling figures of all deaths. They’ll be weekly in Scotland and will be higher as they’ll include care hone deaths "

Just had that pointed out to me. I did already know but for some reason didn't click. Thanks for the clarification

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By *nlivene OP   TV/TS
over a year ago

Selby


"All numbers can be bigger.

Scotland now counting people who die who might have, who are presumed to have it.

And in care homes too.... rest of uk need to catch up and follow suit to give a truer picture.

Didn't I see something yesterday where 15 people died in a care home? Surely these were included in the figures?"

That figures only from the last days , also staff in care homes who are in direct proximity with ederly for long periods of time are not been tested , even if in their work place someone have been infected . This means the chain is not break because the same staff they back home after their shifts and they will be in contact with members of their family or with people with who they live

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By *esparate danMan
over a year ago

glasgow

It means nothing really until you know the real size of the population who would test positive for it

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

I think it’s better to think positive.

Be positive and strong

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By *nlivene OP   TV/TS
over a year ago

Selby


"It means nothing really until you know the real size of the population who would test positive for it "

Maybe can be impossible but a real statistic only can be accurate after all population been tested

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By *atandasmileMan
over a year ago

Edinburgh


"PS. ONS figures, the risk of dying from covid 19 is practically identical to normal chance of dying for each age group."

Do you mean that the risk of dying of covid-19 that week was the same (for all age groups) as the risk of dying of every other possible cause put together? If so, that's fairly significant.

Or maybe - which I've also heard elsewhere - the risk of dying of covid-19 is the same as a year's worth of ordinary risk compressed into the length of one illness?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

The figures would 100% be higher if they adequately tested. Patients in the own homes under community care are dieing and never being tested therefore will never show in the figures

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By *est Wales WifeCouple
over a year ago

Near Carmarthen

The official statistics report nothing of value. In fact they are junk science'. There is no standardised reporting and testing. And it is now proven false data and assumptions that led to the now debunked report from Imperial College that led to lockdown.

The UK Guidance to doctors has also recently been amended and the guidance says

"For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death"

If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

Now look at what has happened since the emergence of Covid-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox (which has been extinct for many years) and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies (which most UK doctors will never see in their entire careers) — has now been amended to include Covid-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for Covid-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections.

In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate — contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind. There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.

If we take drastic measures to reduce the incidence of Covid-19, it follows that the deaths will also go down. We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared. This unusual way of reporting Covid-19 deaths explains the clear finding that most of its victims have underlying conditions — and would normally be susceptible to other seasonal viruses, which are virtually never recorded as a specific cause of death.“

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"The official statistics report nothing of value. In fact they are junk science'. There is no standardised reporting and testing. And it is now proven false data and assumptions that led to the now debunked report from Imperial College that led to lockdown.

The UK Guidance to doctors has also recently been amended and the guidance says

"For example, if before death the patient had symptoms typical of COVID19 infection, but the test result has not been received, it would be satisfactory to give ‘COVID-19’ as the cause of death"

If someone dies of a respiratory infection in the UK, the specific cause of the infection is not usually recorded, unless the illness is a rare ‘notifiable disease’. So the vast majority of respiratory deaths in the UK are recorded as bronchopneumonia, pneumonia, old age or a similar designation. We don’t really test for flu, or other seasonal infections. If the patient has, say, cancer, motor neurone disease or another serious disease, this will be recorded as the cause of death, even if the final illness was a respiratory infection. This means UK certifications normally under-record deaths due to respiratory infections.

Now look at what has happened since the emergence of Covid-19. The list of notifiable diseases has been updated. This list — as well as containing smallpox (which has been extinct for many years) and conditions such as anthrax, brucellosis, plague and rabies (which most UK doctors will never see in their entire careers) — has now been amended to include Covid-19. But not flu. That means every positive test for Covid-19 must be notified, in a way that it just would not be for flu or most other infections.

In the current climate, anyone with a positive test for Covid-19 will certainly be known to clinical staff looking after them: if any of these patients dies, staff will have to record the Covid-19 designation on the death certificate — contrary to usual practice for most infections of this kind. There is a big difference between Covid-19 causing death, and Covid-19 being found in someone who died of other causes. Making Covid-19 notifiable might give the appearance of it causing increasing numbers of deaths, whether this is true or not. It might appear far more of a killer than flu, simply because of the way deaths are recorded.

If we take drastic measures to reduce the incidence of Covid-19, it follows that the deaths will also go down. We risk being convinced that we have averted something that was never really going to be as severe as we feared. This unusual way of reporting Covid-19 deaths explains the clear finding that most of its victims have underlying conditions — and would normally be susceptible to other seasonal viruses, which are virtually never recorded as a specific cause of death.“"

Very informative. I knew this already but for others it's very very good info.

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By *oAnCouple
over a year ago

Streatham

Maybe the numbers are different so when this is over just take a monthly average of deaths per year for say the last 3 years and compare it to deaths per month (this would be just death certificates issued) for this year.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Maybe the numbers are different so when this is over just take a monthly average of deaths per year for say the last 3 years and compare it to deaths per month (this would be just death certificates issued) for this year."

That's the number that interests me. How does it different to other years averages. It's the only way for me to gauge just how bad this is.

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