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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here " Almost certainly. But is the same true for 90+ year old with underlying health issues? I think the point the OP is making is that people may die of something else whilst testing as positive for Corona. There have been reports of 90+ year olds making full recoveries so it may not be possible to conclude 100% that the virus is the definite cause of death. A | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here Almost certainly. But is the same true for 90+ year old with underlying health issues? I think the point the OP is making is that people may die of something else whilst testing as positive for Corona. There have been reports of 90+ year olds making full recoveries so it may not be possible to conclude 100% that the virus is the definite cause of death. A" But the question was 'are people dying of c19' the answer is yes. Did everyone dying with C19 die because of it, I think definitely not | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here Almost certainly. But is the same true for 90+ year old with underlying health issues? I think the point the OP is making is that people may die of something else whilst testing as positive for Corona. There have been reports of 90+ year olds making full recoveries so it may not be possible to conclude 100% that the virus is the definite cause of death. A But the question was 'are people dying of c19' the answer is yes. Did everyone dying with C19 die because of it, I think definitely not " Yep. It's both. But the stats will never be known. Much like true infection rates. A | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here " Thanks Jon Did you know the NHS has 150,000 Doctors and 320,000 Nurses. Thats a lot of people | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here Thanks Jon Did you know the NHS has 150,000 Doctors and 320,000 Nurses. Thats a lot of people" What does this mean? | |||
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"About 1400 people die each day in the uk from natural causes, accidents and illness. Because we are being more hygenic and social distancing it is quite likely fewer people are dying of illnesses other than cv19 and so the additional deaths from cv19 aren't raising the daily death rate significantly." True But not a nice way to go though  | |||
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"About 1400 people die each day in the uk from natural causes, accidents and illness. Because we are being more hygenic and social distancing it is quite likely fewer people are dying of illnesses other than cv19 and so the additional deaths from cv19 aren't raising the daily death rate significantly." Accident rates are at risk of rising due to people being home. Natural causes will be the same. It remains to be seen what impact this will gave on suicides but the have already been a number of domestic homicides. Coronavirus deaths are occurring at a rate that is forcing extra emergency mortuary facilities to be opened. The death rates are rising significantly | |||
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"If you listen/read the official stats they are now saying..."died after testing positive for Covid19". Leaves a lot of scope for interpretation. You could test positive then get hit by a bus...." You could but given to have tested positive you will have either already died (many of the positives are confirmed after death) or seriously ill in hospital its unlikely. If you hadn't noticed test rates are so low there are not people going about their normal lives having tested positive | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here Almost certainly. But is the same true for 90+ year old with underlying health issues? I think the point the OP is making is that people may die of something else whilst testing as positive for Corona. There have been reports of 90+ year olds making full recoveries so it may not be possible to conclude 100% that the virus is the definite cause of death. A" It could be the cause or simply a factor. I really don't get this of/with debate. It's a moot point to be honest. | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here Almost certainly. But is the same true for 90+ year old with underlying health issues? I think the point the OP is making is that people may die of something else whilst testing as positive for Corona. There have been reports of 90+ year olds making full recoveries so it may not be possible to conclude 100% that the virus is the definite cause of death. A It could be the cause or simply a factor. I really don't get this of/with debate. It's a moot point to be honest. " Yes it is a moot point. It is a notifiable death so whether it is died of, died with or even not on the death certificate at all it still has to be reported to PHE who are compiling the statistics. This is also how other countries are compiling the statistics. | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here Almost certainly. But is the same true for 90+ year old with underlying health issues? I think the point the OP is making is that people may die of something else whilst testing as positive for Corona. There have been reports of 90+ year olds making full recoveries so it may not be possible to conclude 100% that the virus is the definite cause of death. A It could be the cause or simply a factor. I really don't get this of/with debate. It's a moot point to be honest. Yes it is a moot point. It is a notifiable death so whether it is died of, died with or even not on the death certificate at all it still has to be reported to PHE who are compiling the statistics. This is also how other countries are compiling the statistics. " I wouldn't necessarily say it's a moot point. I'll give you an example. My father has dementia and several underlying health conditions. He had a severe respiratory infection last year, long before this virus that could easily have killed him - but he got through it. It's not the first near miss nor will it be the last. Any infection from a common cold to a standard flu virus could be the end of him (he signed a DNR when still mentally capable) yet if he became infected with Covid 19 and died it would be listed as his cause of death, rather than the long term conditions he's lived with for a decade now. To him, and many like him, Covid 19 is no more dangerous than any other virus. Any is a potential killer. You can present any case, argument or viewpoint using the 'right' statistics. The published figures aren't split into those with/without underlying conditions. There's no detailed data on those that have recovered either. The lack of widespread testing doesn't help as mortality rates are skewed by including only those that have been tested - which is a tiny sample of the general population. You only have to look at other countries testing volumes to see the differences in numbers. At the end of the day if the figures scare the idiots who aren't doing the right thing into changing their behaviour then it's a positive. But I don't believe for one second that the data being shared is in any way accurate or representative of the true picture. A | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here Almost certainly. But is the same true for 90+ year old with underlying health issues? I think the point the OP is making is that people may die of something else whilst testing as positive for Corona. There have been reports of 90+ year olds making full recoveries so it may not be possible to conclude 100% that the virus is the definite cause of death. A It could be the cause or simply a factor. I really don't get this of/with debate. It's a moot point to be honest. Yes it is a moot point. It is a notifiable death so whether it is died of, died with or even not on the death certificate at all it still has to be reported to PHE who are compiling the statistics. This is also how other countries are compiling the statistics. I wouldn't necessarily say it's a moot point. I'll give you an example. My father has dementia and several underlying health conditions. He had a severe respiratory infection last year, long before this virus that could easily have killed him - but he got through it. It's not the first near miss nor will it be the last. Any infection from a common cold to a standard flu virus could be the end of him (he signed a DNR when still mentally capable) yet if he became infected with Covid 19 and died it would be listed as his cause of death, rather than the long term conditions he's lived with for a decade now. To him, and many like him, Covid 19 is no more dangerous than any other virus. Any is a potential killer. You can present any case, argument or viewpoint using the 'right' statistics. The published figures aren't split into those with/without underlying conditions. There's no detailed data on those that have recovered either. The lack of widespread testing doesn't help as mortality rates are skewed by including only those that have been tested - which is a tiny sample of the general population. You only have to look at other countries testing volumes to see the differences in numbers. At the end of the day if the figures scare the idiots who aren't doing the right thing into changing their behaviour then it's a positive. But I don't believe for one second that the data being shared is in any way accurate or representative of the true picture. A" How do you know what will be listed as his cause of death? | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here Almost certainly. But is the same true for 90+ year old with underlying health issues? I think the point the OP is making is that people may die of something else whilst testing as positive for Corona. There have been reports of 90+ year olds making full recoveries so it may not be possible to conclude 100% that the virus is the definite cause of death. A It could be the cause or simply a factor. I really don't get this of/with debate. It's a moot point to be honest. Yes it is a moot point. It is a notifiable death so whether it is died of, died with or even not on the death certificate at all it still has to be reported to PHE who are compiling the statistics. This is also how other countries are compiling the statistics. I wouldn't necessarily say it's a moot point. I'll give you an example. My father has dementia and several underlying health conditions. He had a severe respiratory infection last year, long before this virus that could easily have killed him - but he got through it. It's not the first near miss nor will it be the last. Any infection from a common cold to a standard flu virus could be the end of him (he signed a DNR when still mentally capable) yet if he became infected with Covid 19 and died it would be listed as his cause of death, rather than the long term conditions he's lived with for a decade now. To him, and many like him, Covid 19 is no more dangerous than any other virus. Any is a potential killer. You can present any case, argument or viewpoint using the 'right' statistics. The published figures aren't split into those with/without underlying conditions. There's no detailed data on those that have recovered either. The lack of widespread testing doesn't help as mortality rates are skewed by including only those that have been tested - which is a tiny sample of the general population. You only have to look at other countries testing volumes to see the differences in numbers. At the end of the day if the figures scare the idiots who aren't doing the right thing into changing their behaviour then it's a positive. But I don't believe for one second that the data being shared is in any way accurate or representative of the true picture. A How do you know what will be listed as his cause of death? " Because at present anyone who dies in hospital after a positive test is being recorded as dying of Covid 19. Look at Eddie Large. Had a heart transplant 17 years ago. Was already in hospital in Bristol suffering from heart failure and kidney problems, yet the cited cause of his death is Covid 19. A | |||
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"Hi All; experts, sleuths, know alls, the informed and the opinionated. Can anybody tell me if the UK death has surged during the last 2 weeks?. Ive seen data up to 20th March, where we were still slightly behind previous death rates months and years. I’m trying to understand if people are dying of COVID-19 or with it. As there is a big difference. Thanks" I'd be fairly certain that in most cases, the virus will have finished them off. If it wasn't for the virus, they would still be alive. But... in lots of cases, they may have died in the near future. | |||
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"I would imagine the doctors and nurses who died recently would still be alive in covid was not here Almost certainly. But is the same true for 90+ year old with underlying health issues? I think the point the OP is making is that people may die of something else whilst testing as positive for Corona. There have been reports of 90+ year olds making full recoveries so it may not be possible to conclude 100% that the virus is the definite cause of death. A It could be the cause or simply a factor. I really don't get this of/with debate. It's a moot point to be honest. Yes it is a moot point. It is a notifiable death so whether it is died of, died with or even not on the death certificate at all it still has to be reported to PHE who are compiling the statistics. This is also how other countries are compiling the statistics. I wouldn't necessarily say it's a moot point. I'll give you an example. My father has dementia and several underlying health conditions. He had a severe respiratory infection last year, long before this virus that could easily have killed him - but he got through it. It's not the first near miss nor will it be the last. Any infection from a common cold to a standard flu virus could be the end of him (he signed a DNR when still mentally capable) yet if he became infected with Covid 19 and died it would be listed as his cause of death, rather than the long term conditions he's lived with for a decade now. To him, and many like him, Covid 19 is no more dangerous than any other virus. Any is a potential killer. You can present any case, argument or viewpoint using the 'right' statistics. The published figures aren't split into those with/without underlying conditions. There's no detailed data on those that have recovered either. The lack of widespread testing doesn't help as mortality rates are skewed by including only those that have been tested - which is a tiny sample of the general population. You only have to look at other countries testing volumes to see the differences in numbers. At the end of the day if the figures scare the idiots who aren't doing the right thing into changing their behaviour then it's a positive. But I don't believe for one second that the data being shared is in any way accurate or representative of the true picture. A How do you know what will be listed as his cause of death? Because at present anyone who dies in hospital after a positive test is being recorded as dying of Covid 19. Look at Eddie Large. Had a heart transplant 17 years ago. Was already in hospital in Bristol suffering from heart failure and kidney problems, yet the cited cause of his death is Covid 19. A" Is it? Have you seen his death certificate then? The vast majority of deaths are being recorded with the underlying health condition as the primary cause with covid-19 as a significant contributing cause. | |||
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"how do you know they died from covid 19 when the governments corona virus test kit only tests for any corona virus of which there are many corona viruses such as the common flu etc ..anyone with a simple cold would test positive for the corona virus cos the common cold as well as covid 19 is a member of ..the family of corona viruses ..for al we know they could have died of a heart attack or a stroke or dare I say pneumonic passed on from the common seasonal flu.,,,just because some one tells you something is true ..it doesn't mean it is. " Why do you insist on repeating this fabrication on multiple threads. The test is very specific for C-19. The problem with the stats are they are not closely or even remotely related to actual cases as tests are only carried out on admission to hospital when already seriously compromised. Not AFTER death either!! Far too much nonsense out there, on social media and, sadly on here....! | |||
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"Thanks for putting the post up. Nothing to really add other than I'm conflicted as to how many Covid deaths there are compared to the average death rate for this time of year anyway. We keep hearing about these people in their 50's dying. I can't speak for everyone, but I know of a number of middle aged people (men especially) who die of all the other illnesses that seem to come with age. Eg obesity, high blood pressure, heart problems etc. It will be very interesting in 12 months time to compare number of deaths with previous years." Interesting, I believe that figures show an average of around 8000 die of flu with underlying complications. I think the death count from Covid is around 4000. And we are now coming out of the flu season. Something isn’t adding up in my head. | |||
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"Thanks for putting the post up. Nothing to really add other than I'm conflicted as to how many Covid deaths there are compared to the average death rate for this time of year anyway. We keep hearing about these people in their 50's dying. I can't speak for everyone, but I know of a number of middle aged people (men especially) who die of all the other illnesses that seem to come with age. Eg obesity, high blood pressure, heart problems etc. It will be very interesting in 12 months time to compare number of deaths with previous years. Interesting, I believe that figures show an average of around 8000 die of flu with underlying complications. I think the death count from Covid is around 4000. And we are now coming out of the flu season. Something isn’t adding up in my head." It's almost 5 and a half thousand now...but people are still dying from seasonal flu. Just not being counted as they didn't die from COVID-19... | |||
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"Do a forum search for 'of or with' There was a thread asking this question and it came up with some interesting posts "Missed that thread. Unfortunately we recently lost an ancient relative in hospital.(lots of underlying health problems.) We've actually not heard an official cause yet though so we don't know if it'll take a P.M. to sort it or if they're doing other tests? 
I wonder if there's a policy in place suppressing info or they're trying to check to keep statistics accurate?
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"Thanks for putting the post up. Nothing to really add other than I'm conflicted as to how many Covid deaths there are compared to the average death rate for this time of year anyway. We keep hearing about these people in their 50's dying. I can't speak for everyone, but I know of a number of middle aged people (men especially) who die of all the other illnesses that seem to come with age. Eg obesity, high blood pressure, heart problems etc. It will be very interesting in 12 months time to compare number of deaths with previous years. Interesting, I believe that figures show an average of around 8000 die of flu with underlying complications. I think the death count from Covid is around 4000. And we are now coming out of the flu season. Something isn’t adding up in my head. It's almost 5 and a half thousand now...but people are still dying from seasonal flu. Just not being counted as they didn't die from COVID-19..." Please can you give me a link to this research? Thanks. | |||
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"Thanks for putting the post up. Nothing to really add other than I'm conflicted as to how many Covid deaths there are compared to the average death rate for this time of year anyway. We keep hearing about these people in their 50's dying. I can't speak for everyone, but I know of a number of middle aged people (men especially) who die of all the other illnesses that seem to come with age. Eg obesity, high blood pressure, heart problems etc. It will be very interesting in 12 months time to compare number of deaths with previous years. Interesting, I believe that figures show an average of around 8000 die of flu with underlying complications. I think the death count from Covid is around 4000. And we are now coming out of the flu season. Something isn’t adding up in my head. It's almost 5 and a half thousand now...but people are still dying from seasonal flu. Just not being counted as they didn't die from COVID-19... Please can you give me a link to this research? Thanks." Yup. | |||
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"I'm amazed by the effort that some people put in trying to find any excuse to not accept that COVID-19 is dangerous or to prove that all the media and governs are lying for unknown reasons... "Yeah I dont really get this thread. | |||
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"I'm amazed by the effort that some people put in trying to find any excuse to not accept that COVID-19 is dangerous or to prove that all the media and governs are lying for unknown reasons... "I believe some people find asking questions is a good way to learn. None of us know whats going on. I know I will always ask questions of someone, anyone, who wants me to know something. Curiosity is neither offensive nor wrong. It is actually the impetus for the scientific method. Data I have seen apparently sourced from the ONS is showing there is not an increased rate of death in the UK this first quarter of 2020 as compared to the years back to 2015. The data relating to Covid 19 is very unclear as yet. And can only be expected to be so. We are all learning as we go. | |||
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"I'm amazed by the effort that some people put in trying to find any excuse to not accept that COVID-19 is dangerous or to prove that all the media and governs are lying for unknown reasons... "I and most people I know are very aware of how serious this is. However, in my little corner of the world, I know of only 1 possibly 2 cases among people I personally know. Speaking to a local nurse, our hospital is far quieter than normal. Hopefully but Possibly the calm before the storm. Have a read of this article on corona: https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ What did interest me was the part they are attributing part of Italy's high instance of complications to it's over-use of antibiotics. | |||
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"Hi All; experts, sleuths, know alls, the informed and the opinionated. Can anybody tell me if the UK death has surged during the last 2 weeks?. Ive seen data up to 20th March, where we were still slightly behind previous death rates months and years. I’m trying to understand if people are dying of COVID-19 or with it. As there is a big difference. Thanks" It's your choice and that's fair enough but I would question asking a swingers forum for information on such a serious question Good luck though | |||
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"I find this Guardian article interesting, it discusses how different figures are recorded at different places. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/misleading-and-alarming-sheffields-coronavirus-figures" This makes for very interesting reading, thanks, and will read the BBC Futures one too that another poster has shared. | |||
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"I know of 8 cases, 3 fully recovered at home they were not very well but not needing hospital treatment. Four others very sadly did not make it and one is in an induced coma. I know of quite a few other people who feel they definitely had it but had very mild symptoms, including myself and a 15-year old. " I hope you don't mind me asking, out of those 8 how many were working in healthcare or personal care like carers? The reason I ask is one of the theories of how badly you are affected is down to viral load. So the more exposure to the virus you have the worse you will suffer from it. | |||
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"Just a thought with lots less cars on the road and most people inside i wonder how many lives have been saved by the reduction in car crashes and the pedestrian's saved by not been hit by a car or bus ( an interesting thing to look into next year ) . The really scary thing to think about is the numbers on the tv are only those in hospital and do not include care homes and other places so could be nearly twice as high " A very interesting point. Studies will be being carried out about this very fact. What rate of immobility is society precisely under compared to how many deaths. Roads are a huge cause of death around the world. The reduction to 1950s traffic volumes will gives a huge opputunity for study. Humans would appear to an inherently mobile species. So restricting movememt to save lives in the long term may not be ideal. Public health england numbers are currently collecting any mention of Covid 19 on death certificates. Deeper work will need to be done to understand that data set alone. | |||
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"I know of 8 cases, 3 fully recovered at home they were not very well but not needing hospital treatment. Four others very sadly did not make it and one is in an induced coma. I know of quite a few other people who feel they definitely had it but had very mild symptoms, including myself and a 15-year old. I hope you don't mind me asking, out of those 8 how many were working in healthcare or personal care like carers? The reason I ask is one of the theories of how badly you are affected is down to viral load. So the more exposure to the virus you have the worse you will suffer from it. " One of the people who has fully recovered is married to a doctor. One was in a nursing home. He was the third person to die there symptomatic. None of the others were or are in the medical profession or had any tie to health facilities. The people I know who sadly passed where above retirement age, the people I know who recovered, are below. | |||
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" Roads are a huge cause of death around the world. The reduction to 1950s traffic volumes will gives a huge opputunity for study. Humans would appear to an inherently mobile species. So restricting movememt to save lives in the long term may not be ideal. Public health england numbers are currently collecting any mention of Covid 19 on death certificates. Deeper work will need to be done to understand that data set alone." You would think that the 50's were safer for road travel, but I've a suspicious feeling they weren't. I vaguely remember on Top Gear years back they compared it and we are massively safer now despite considerably more vehicles. | |||
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"I'm amazed by the effort that some people put in trying to find any excuse to not accept that COVID-19 is dangerous or to prove that all the media and governs are lying for unknown reasons...
I and most people I know are very aware of how serious this is. However, in my little corner of the world, I know of only 1 possibly 2 cases among people I personally know.
Speaking to a local nurse, our hospital is far quieter than normal.
Hopefully but Possibly the calm before the storm.
Have a read of this article on corona:
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ
What did interest me was the part they are attributing part of Italy's high instance of complications to it's over-use of antibiotics. "That is an interesting article. Thank you for sharing | |||
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" Roads are a huge cause of death around the world. The reduction to 1950s traffic volumes will gives a huge opputunity for study. Humans would appear to an inherently mobile species. So restricting movememt to save lives in the long term may not be ideal. Public health england numbers are currently collecting any mention of Covid 19 on death certificates. Deeper work will need to be done to understand that data set alone. You would think that the 50's were safer for road travel, but I've a suspicious feeling they weren't. I vaguely remember on Top Gear years back they compared it and we are massively safer now despite considerably more vehicles." Seat belts and crumple zones. Speed limits and control measures. | |||
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"I know of 8 cases, 3 fully recovered at home they were not very well but not needing hospital treatment. Four others very sadly did not make it and one is in an induced coma. I know of quite a few other people who feel they definitely had it but had very mild symptoms, including myself and a 15-year old. I hope you don't mind me asking, out of those 8 how many were working in healthcare or personal care like carers? The reason I ask is one of the theories of how badly you are affected is down to viral load. So the more exposure to the virus you have the worse you will suffer from it. " Some info on the viral load theory from a good source: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/ | |||
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"The same principle applies to every country. Did they die from the covid or something else. We have high death rates due to the nhs being under funded for years and short staffed as eu members have been leaving for the last 3 years. No other reason." Ohhh so we could of bought our way out of this one! Why didnt you say. Well I tell you what we could do, in your PAYE salary we can petition to have a specific NHS Tax/Insurance deduction line. How much do you want us all to contribute? Who’s going to argue ? | |||
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"The death rates are getting underreported apparently." But so are infection rates. The figures are pretty unreliable until more are tested and a consistent definition of dying with/of Covid-19 is used. At the moment, it's varying from place to place, even in the UK. | |||
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"The death rates are getting underreported apparently. But so are infection rates. The figures are pretty unreliable until more are tested and a consistent definition of dying with/of Covid-19 is used. At the moment, it's varying from place to place, even in the UK. " Which makes the theory they are over reporting it quite flawed. | |||
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" Some info on the viral load theory from a good source: https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/" Thanks for that very interesting read. | |||
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"The death rates are getting underreported apparently. But so are infection rates. The figures are pretty unreliable until more are tested and a consistent definition of dying with/of Covid-19 is used. At the moment, it's varying from place to place, even in the UK. Which makes the theory they are over reporting it quite flawed." It makes every theory flawed. We have to wait till its over and a decent proportion of the population have had antibody tests (which don't work yet) and only then will we be able to properly quantify the mortality rate etc. It's too early with too little data, which is is mainly skewed data anyway. | |||
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"The death rates are getting underreported apparently. But so are infection rates. The figures are pretty unreliable until more are tested and a consistent definition of dying with/of Covid-19 is used. At the moment, it's varying from place to place, even in the UK. Which makes the theory they are over reporting it quite flawed. It makes every theory flawed. We have to wait till its over and a decent proportion of the population have had antibody tests (which don't work yet) and only then will we be able to properly quantify the mortality rate etc. It's too early with too little data, which is is mainly skewed data anyway. " | |||
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"Big surge in mortality rates in last 24 hours, 758 in England and 854 in whole of UK. I think next 5 to 10 days will be really rough." I think thats meant to be the peak | |||
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"Big surge in mortality rates in last 24 hours, 758 in England and 854 in whole of UK. I think next 5 to 10 days will be really rough." No, that's just the weekend deaths being reported now, on top of the deaths in recent days. Deaths are rarely registered at weekends and filter through during the early to mid part of the week. | |||
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"Big surge in mortality rates in last 24 hours, 758 in England and 854 in whole of UK. I think next 5 to 10 days will be really rough. No, that's just the weekend deaths being reported now, on top of the deaths in recent days. Deaths are rarely registered at weekends and filter through during the early to mid part of the week. " Time of death is accurate, for all kinds of legal reasons , nothing to do with weekends. 854 dirs in the previous 24hrs | |||
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"Big surge in mortality rates in last 24 hours, 758 in England and 854 in whole of UK. I think next 5 to 10 days will be really rough. No, that's just the weekend deaths being reported now, on top of the deaths in recent days. Deaths are rarely registered at weekends and filter through during the early to mid part of the week. Time of death is accurate, for all kinds of legal reasons , nothing to do with weekends. 854 dirs in the previous 24hrs" If you read the latest ONS report, it states that the daily reports are not accurate reports of death on that exact date, due to the delays in formally registering deaths. Deaths at weekends are being reported in the data later in the week, it's been widely reported on BBC this week and stated by the ONS. | |||
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"If you read the latest ONS report, it states that the daily reports are not accurate reports of death on that exact date, due to the delays in formally registering deaths. Deaths at weekends are being reported in the data later in the week, it's been widely reported on BBC this week and stated by the ONS. " Yes. I'm sure a few other news outlets had articles saying the same.
If I recall correctly, even if it isn't a weekend day then the reported figures (which are the ones you see in all of those graphs) are 3-5 days out of date, on average. At least a significant chunk of that delay is because they can't report a death to be included in the statistics until the next of kin have been informed. There seems to be some movement towards possibly removing that restriction for covid-19 related deaths.
The ONS report (of deaths up to 27th of March) has quite a detailed breakdown looking at day of report vs. day of actual death:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending27march2020
This report also starts to answer the OP's original question which I'll paraphrase as "is there a detectable rise in overall deaths due to covid-19 or are they mostly deaths which would have happened anyway?"
I can see a definite uptick in the graph for its final week and that uptick matches the corresponding rise in the number of covid-19 deaths. It's enough to convince me, but then I already do believe that most of those people are dying "of" covid-19 rather than "with" it, as another poster put it. If I were a sceptic, I don't think this would fully convince me yet though: that rise is still within the normal year to year variation.
I would expect the numbers in a week or two to be more convincing. | |||
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"The death rates are getting underreported apparently. But so are infection rates. The figures are pretty unreliable until more are tested and a consistent definition of dying with/of Covid-19 is used. At the moment, it's varying from place to place, even in the UK. Which makes the theory they are over reporting it quite flawed. It makes every theory flawed. We have to wait till its over and a decent proportion of the population have had antibody tests (which don't work yet) and only then will we be able to properly quantify the mortality rate etc. It's too early with too little data, which is is mainly skewed data anyway. " | |||
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"Around 5,000 recorded, I say double that in reality. Probably some folk lying dead alone in their homes not yet counted. Grim." Fucking hell | |||
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"Just watched the news and now they are saying some of todays figures are people how died up to 10 days ago, that's how the system works. Waste of time reading them. " The nhs has 1 set The gmnt has another And we havent even peaked yet | |||
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"Hi All; experts, sleuths, know alls, the informed and the opinionated. If you listen very carefully to the way they are wording it you are being told that they died after testing positive for the Corona virus, which I might add these tests they are using are not designed for the fake "covid19" Can anybody tell me if the UK death has surged during the last 2 weeks?. Ive seen data up to 20th March, where we were still slightly behind previous death rates months and years. I’m trying to understand if people are dying of COVID-19 or with it. As there is a big difference. Thanks" | |||
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"Around 5,000 recorded, I say double that in reality. Probably some folk lying dead alone in their homes not yet counted. Grim." Sadly this is probably near the mark. Add to that the diagnosed and undiagnosed as yet and we will be near half a million before we know it. Sorry but it is that grim | |||
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"Thanks for putting the post up. Nothing to really add other than I'm conflicted as to how many Covid deaths there are compared to the average death rate for this time of year anyway. We keep hearing about these people in their 50's dying. I can't speak for everyone, but I know of a number of middle aged people (men especially) who die of all the other illnesses that seem to come with age. Eg obesity, high blood pressure, heart problems etc. It will be very interesting in 12 months time to compare number of deaths with previous years. Interesting, I believe that figures show an average of around 8000 die of flu with underlying complications. I think the death count from Covid is around 4000. And we are now coming out of the flu season. Something isn’t adding up in my head. It's almost 5 and a half thousand now...but people are still dying from seasonal flu. Just not being counted as they didn't die from COVID-19... Please can you give me a link to this research? Thanks. Yup." Ah sorry you seemed to expect a instant reply...link to death rates has changed since then if that's what you wanted... | |||
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"Thanks for putting the post up. Nothing to really add other than I'm conflicted as to how many Covid deaths there are compared to the average death rate for this time of year anyway. We keep hearing about these people in their 50's dying. I can't speak for everyone, but I know of a number of middle aged people (men especially) who die of all the other illnesses that seem to come with age. Eg obesity, high blood pressure, heart problems etc. It will be very interesting in 12 months time to compare number of deaths with previous years. Interesting, I believe that figures show an average of around 8000 die of flu with underlying complications. I think the death count from Covid is around 4000. And we are now coming out of the flu season. Something isn’t adding up in my head. It's almost 5 and a half thousand now...but people are still dying from seasonal flu. Just not being counted as they didn't die from COVID-19... Please can you give me a link to this research? Thanks. Yup. Ah sorry you seemed to expect a instant reply...link to death rates has changed since then if that's what you wanted..." And it seems your 8000 per year was way of the mark as it's only 600 per year in the uk. Here's your link to that https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1237961/coronavirus-fatality-rate-vs-flu-how-deadly-is-coronavirus-flu-death-toll-2020 | |||
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"Thanks for putting the post up. Nothing to really add other than I'm conflicted as to how many Covid deaths there are compared to the average death rate for this time of year anyway. We keep hearing about these people in their 50's dying. I can't speak for everyone, but I know of a number of middle aged people (men especially) who die of all the other illnesses that seem to come with age. Eg obesity, high blood pressure, heart problems etc. It will be very interesting in 12 months time to compare number of deaths with previous years. Interesting, I believe that figures show an average of around 8000 die of flu with underlying complications. I think the death count from Covid is around 4000. And we are now coming out of the flu season. Something isn’t adding up in my head. It's almost 5 and a half thousand now...but people are still dying from seasonal flu. Just not being counted as they didn't die from COVID-19... Please can you give me a link to this research? Thanks. Yup. Ah sorry you seemed to expect a instant reply...link to death rates has changed since then if that's what you wanted... And it seems your 8000 per year was way of the mark as it's only 600 per year in the uk. Here's your link to that https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1237961/coronavirus-fatality-rate-vs-flu-how-deadly-is-coronavirus-flu-death-toll-2020" Actually it's fewer that for the last recorded year: UK flu deaths in 2018/9 — 312 (England 273) Source; https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports | |||
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"Thanks for putting the post up. Nothing to really add other than I'm conflicted as to how many Covid deaths there are compared to the average death rate for this time of year anyway. We keep hearing about these people in their 50's dying. I can't speak for everyone, but I know of a number of middle aged people (men especially) who die of all the other illnesses that seem to come with age. Eg obesity, high blood pressure, heart problems etc. It will be very interesting in 12 months time to compare number of deaths with previous years. Interesting, I believe that figures show an average of around 8000 die of flu with underlying complications. I think the death count from Covid is around 4000. And we are now coming out of the flu season. Something isn’t adding up in my head. It's almost 5 and a half thousand now...but people are still dying from seasonal flu. Just not being counted as they didn't die from COVID-19... Please can you give me a link to this research? Thanks. Yup. Ah sorry you seemed to expect a instant reply...link to death rates has changed since then if that's what you wanted... And it seems your 8000 per year was way of the mark as it's only 600 per year in the uk. Here's your link to that https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1237961/coronavirus-fatality-rate-vs-flu-how-deadly-is-coronavirus-flu-death-toll-2020 Actually it's fewer that for the last recorded year: UK flu deaths in 2018/9 — 312 (England 273) Source; https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports" | |||
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"And it seems your 8000 per year was way of the mark as it's only 600 per year in the uk. Here's your link to that https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1237961/coronavirus-fatality-rate-vs-flu-how-deadly-is-coronavirus-flu-death-toll-2020 Actually it's fewer that for the last recorded year: UK flu deaths in 2018/9 — 312 (England 273) Source; https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports "It does vary quite a lot though - our 5 year average for flu deaths is sitting at about 17,000 thanks in large part to a high of 28,000 in 2014/15. https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/ It looks like covid 19 is probably going to hit a similar number even after all this lockdown effort so I'd still class it as lots more dangerous than seasonal flu, even on a bad year. | |||
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"And it seems your 8000 per year was way of the mark as it's only 600 per year in the uk. Here's your link to that https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1237961/coronavirus-fatality-rate-vs-flu-how-deadly-is-coronavirus-flu-death-toll-2020 Actually it's fewer that for the last recorded year: UK flu deaths in 2018/9 — 312 (England 273) Source; https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
It does vary quite a lot though - our 5 year average for flu deaths is sitting at about 17,000 thanks in large part to a high of 28,000 in 2014/15.
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/
It looks like covid 19 is probably going to hit a similar number even after all this lockdown effort so I'd still class it as lots more dangerous than seasonal flu, even on a bad year."Agreed, Source: Public Health England are where these statistics come from. There is a great charity site called, The UK’s independent fact checking charity. It checks facts and names sources. | |||
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"And it seems your 8000 per year was way of the mark as it's only 600 per year in the uk. Here's your link to that https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1237961/coronavirus-fatality-rate-vs-flu-how-deadly-is-coronavirus-flu-death-toll-2020 Actually it's fewer that for the last recorded year: UK flu deaths in 2018/9 — 312 (England 273) Source; https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
It does vary quite a lot though - our 5 year average for flu deaths is sitting at about 17,000 thanks in large part to a high of 28,000 in 2014/15.
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/
It looks like covid 19 is probably going to hit a similar number even after all this lockdown effort so I'd still class it as lots more dangerous than seasonal flu, even on a bad year.
Agreed,
Source: Public Health England are where these statistics come from.
There is a great charity site called, The UK’s independent fact checking charity.
It checks facts and names sources."If 700 people die every day from COVID-19 then you're looking at 255 500 deaths. Worse than flu? | |||
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"Thanks for putting the post up. Nothing to really add other than I'm conflicted as to how many Covid deaths there are compared to the average death rate for this time of year anyway. We keep hearing about these people in their 50's dying. I can't speak for everyone, but I know of a number of middle aged people (men especially) who die of all the other illnesses that seem to come with age. Eg obesity, high blood pressure, heart problems etc. It will be very interesting in 12 months time to compare number of deaths with previous years. Interesting, I believe that figures show an average of around 8000 die of flu with underlying complications. I think the death count from Covid is around 4000. And we are now coming out of the flu season. Something isn’t adding up in my head." Cannot believe I put 8000, when it should have been 18000. Apologies. | |||
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"And it seems your 8000 per year was way of the mark as it's only 600 per year in the uk. Here's your link to that https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1237961/coronavirus-fatality-rate-vs-flu-how-deadly-is-coronavirus-flu-death-toll-2020 Actually it's fewer that for the last recorded year: UK flu deaths in 2018/9 — 312 (England 273) Source; https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/annual-flu-reports
It does vary quite a lot though - our 5 year average for flu deaths is sitting at about 17,000 thanks in large part to a high of 28,000 in 2014/15.
https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-compare-influenza/
It looks like covid 19 is probably going to hit a similar number even after all this lockdown effort so I'd still class it as lots more dangerous than seasonal flu, even on a bad year."Agreed, one exceptional winter (partly due to an ineffective vaccine) has completely distorted the average figure. Fortunately the trend for flu deaths is dramatically downwards (273 last year) Most importantly not forgetting that these figures each represent a tragedy for those involved  | |||
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"I am doing prescription runs for the elderly and have one old lady who has been waiting for an inhaler for over a week. I've been in to the pharmacy 3 times (because they aren't answering phones) - no inhaler. The pharmacy is now closed until Tuesday which means that this person will be without vital medication because of the COVID-19 crisis. Should people in these circumstances succumb to their illnesses because of a lack of medication, their cause of death will have no mention of COVID-19, although without this pandemic we would probably still have these people with us... "Exactly...people are dying from sepsis due to being too scared to go to a+e incase they catch COVID-19 there. The real death rate of this will be unthinkable. But some will still come and compare it to flu. | |||
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"I am doing prescription runs for the elderly and have one old lady who has been waiting for an inhaler for over a week. I've been in to the pharmacy 3 times (because they aren't answering phones) - no inhaler. The pharmacy is now closed until Tuesday which means that this person will be without vital medication because of the COVID-19 crisis. Should people in these circumstances succumb to their illnesses because of a lack of medication, their cause of death will have no mention of COVID-19, although without this pandemic we would probably still have these people with us...
Exactly...people are dying from sepsis due to being too scared to go to a+e incase they catch COVID-19 there. The real death rate of this will be unthinkable.
But some will still come and compare it to flu."It's very sad and heartbreaking. | |||
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"I am doing prescription runs for the elderly and have one old lady who has been waiting for an inhaler for over a week. I've been in to the pharmacy 3 times (because they aren't answering phones) - no inhaler. The pharmacy is now closed until Tuesday which means that this person will be without vital medication because of the COVID-19 crisis. Should people in these circumstances succumb to their illnesses because of a lack of medication, their cause of death will have no mention of COVID-19, although without this pandemic we would probably still have these people with us... "Nuts, I think there is always a duty pharmacy open if that helps and a pharmacist has discretion to issue an emergency supply. Hope you can help. Check online for the Easter opening hours local to you | |||
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"I am doing prescription runs for the elderly and have one old lady who has been waiting for an inhaler for over a week. I've been in to the pharmacy 3 times (because they aren't answering phones) - no inhaler. The pharmacy is now closed until Tuesday which means that this person will be without vital medication because of the COVID-19 crisis. Should people in these circumstances succumb to their illnesses because of a lack of medication, their cause of death will have no mention of COVID-19, although without this pandemic we would probably still have these people with us...
Nuts, I think there is always a duty pharmacy open if that helps and a pharmacist has discretion to issue an emergency supply. Hope you can help. Check online for the Easter opening hours local to you "Thank you I'll give it a go  | |||
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"There will be a pharmacy open somewhere, the problem may be that there is a serious supply issue with some inhalers atm. Explain the situation to the pharmacist and they may be able to sort an alternative as a temporary measure." Thank you. I'm doing a follow up. | |||
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"I am doing prescription runs for the elderly and have one old lady who has been waiting for an inhaler for over a week. I've been in to the pharmacy 3 times (because they aren't answering phones) - no inhaler. The pharmacy is now closed until Tuesday which means that this person will be without vital medication because of the COVID-19 crisis. Should people in these circumstances succumb to their illnesses because of a lack of medication, their cause of death will have no mention of COVID-19, although without this pandemic we would probably still have these people with us...
Nuts, I think there is always a duty pharmacy open if that helps and a pharmacist has discretion to issue an emergency supply. Hope you can help. Check online for the Easter opening hours local to you "This or if that fails contact your local hospital pharmacy.. | |||
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"Ok an example of someone who is suffering an illness, say cancer, their death certificate will not necessarily list this as the primary cause. Having had three grandparents die of this disease, all three cause of death was listed as liver failure with a secondary note of being treated of cancer. The point I’m trying to make is, no one knows yet whether it is the virus that kills people, but more the body can’t cope with fighting the other problems it has; same those that have no underlying health issues, but have still passed. The certificate, and rightly so in my layman opinion, should state tested positive for Covid19 and be included in the stats " Sorry, but actually, when perfectly healthy people die as a result of covid 19, as is happening, we do know this virus is killing people. | |||
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"I think the Government should be quoting the death of persons as having died with the Covid 19 virus not die of the virus. They are scaring us to death literally. We have to remember 99 percent survive it having caught it. Only 1 per cent of the population do not. Tragic as it is. This is what the government are telling us according to their research. " Beware people bearing misunderstood stats. For every person who dies of Covid-19 after a spell in an ICU, four may walk away. However, that's five ICU beds taken up, for a week. Work your way through those numbers and you quickly get to thousands of people who need ICU beds being on trolleys in corridors, or sent home to die with palliative care only. DO you really want to argue that the spread of this virus should go unchecked till we get to the point where every hospital in the UK has no spare ICU beds, so that people with perfectly treatable non covid-19 condiitons, like acute cardiac cases, die on trolleys in the back of ambulances? It's said that you can demonstrate anythign with statistics - what you're demonstrating is mainly about you, and it isn't pretty. Mr Icebreaker | |||
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"I am doing prescription runs for the elderly and have one old lady who has been waiting for an inhaler for over a week. I've been in to the pharmacy 3 times (because they aren't answering phones) - no inhaler. The pharmacy is now closed until Tuesday which means that this person will be without vital medication because of the COVID-19 crisis. Should people in these circumstances succumb to their illnesses because of a lack of medication, their cause of death will have no mention of COVID-19, although without this pandemic we would probably still have these people with us... "There's a huge shortage of one of the most common preventer inhalers for asthma and COPD (Clenil) both because of stockpiling by patients and hospitals upping their stock levels. I think, from talking to clinicians, that they're averse to going to alternatives for fear of a follow on shortage of those - as we enter peak hay fever season (often difficult for asthmatics) this could get messy. | |||
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"Latest released figures for the year w/e 3rd april Calendar weeks 1 to 14 166444 -Total UK 2020 164173 - 5 Year Average 2015-2019 2020 Total is 2271 above the previous 5 year average. Just an information reference point for those interested. " But week 14 showed an increase of over 6000 on the corresponding averaged week, of which nearly 3500 had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate. No doubt it was a contributing factor in a lot of the others. | |||
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"Latest released figures for the year w/e 3rd april Calendar weeks 1 to 14 166444 -Total UK 2020 164173 - 5 Year Average 2015-2019 2020 Total is 2271 above the previous 5 year average. Just an information reference point for those interested. But week 14 showed an increase of over 6000 on the corresponding averaged week, of which nearly 3500 had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate. No doubt it was a contributing factor in a lot of the others." Ive no idea how they are calculating it all. This is the average for the year not a week, low results in the previous 13 weeks have pulled it down. Have you seen the database? Do you need a link? | |||
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"Latest released figures for the year w/e 3rd april Calendar weeks 1 to 14 166444 -Total UK 2020 164173 - 5 Year Average 2015-2019 2020 Total is 2271 above the previous 5 year average. Just an information reference point for those interested. But week 14 showed an increase of over 6000 on the corresponding averaged week, of which nearly 3500 had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate. No doubt it was a contributing factor in a lot of the others. Ive no idea how they are calculating it all. This is the average for the year not a week, low results in the previous 13 weeks have pulled it down. Have you seen the database? Do you need a link? " Yes I’ve seen the data base. Week 14 is week ended 3rd April. Total deaths were 16397 in comparison to the 5 year average for the same week of 10305. This is the first discernible week where the deaths from Covid-19 are clearly visible in the stats. | |||
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"Latest released figures for the year w/e 3rd april Calendar weeks 1 to 14 166444 -Total UK 2020 164173 - 5 Year Average 2015-2019 2020 Total is 2271 above the previous 5 year average. Just an information reference point for those interested. But week 14 showed an increase of over 6000 on the corresponding averaged week, of which nearly 3500 had Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate. No doubt it was a contributing factor in a lot of the others. Ive no idea how they are calculating it all. This is the average for the year not a week, low results in the previous 13 weeks have pulled it down. Have you seen the database? Do you need a link? Yes I’ve seen the data base. Week 14 is week ended 3rd April. Total deaths were 16397 in comparison to the 5 year average for the same week of 10305. This is the first discernible week where the deaths from Covid-19 are clearly visible in the stats." Fingers crossed its pulled some lapsed data from previous weeks | |||
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"Yes I’ve seen the data base. Week 14 is week ended 3rd April. Total deaths were 16397 in comparison to the 5 year average for the same week of 10305. This is the first discernible week where the deaths from Covid-19 are clearly visible in the stats." Which pretty much settles the "with it vs of it" debate from above: most people are definitely dying *of* it. These are extra deaths - and far outside the normal variation so not to be explained away by that. | |||
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"Yes I’ve seen the data base. Week 14 is week ended 3rd April. Total deaths were 16397 in comparison to the 5 year average for the same week of 10305. This is the first discernible week where the deaths from Covid-19 are clearly visible in the stats. Which pretty much settles the "with it vs of it" debate from above: most people are definitely dying *of* it. These are extra deaths - and far outside the normal variation so not to be explained away by that." Actually it doesn't. The deaths include any mention of Covid-19 on the cert which could mean its the main cause of death or it might be a contributory factor where something else is the main cause. Also to record Covid-19 on the cert does not require a positive lab test, just a doctor's opinion that the patient has symptoms indicative. Past epidemics and pandemics have shown retrospectively that there have been many over diagnosis situations where lab testing is not essential for the cert. There's no denying deaths are increased, but we cannot conclude anything concrete at this stage. We need more testing, more data and some antibody tests to establish what proportion of the population have been affected etc. | |||
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"Yes I’ve seen the data base. Week 14 is week ended 3rd April. Total deaths were 16397 in comparison to the 5 year average for the same week of 10305. This is the first discernible week where the deaths from Covid-19 are clearly visible in the stats. Which pretty much settles the "with it vs of it" debate from above: most people are definitely dying *of* it. These are extra deaths - and far outside the normal variation so not to be explained away by that. Actually it doesn't. The deaths include any mention of Covid-19 on the cert which could mean its the main cause of death or it might be a contributory factor where something else is the main cause. Also to record Covid-19 on the cert does not require a positive lab test, just a doctor's opinion that the patient has symptoms indicative. Past epidemics and pandemics have shown retrospectively that there have been many over diagnosis situations where lab testing is not essential for the cert. There's no denying deaths are increased, but we cannot conclude anything concrete at this stage. We need more testing, more data and some antibody tests to establish what proportion of the population have been affected etc. " I'd count it as a fairly remote possibility that the death rate went up by 60% during a time when we know there is a credible cause for those deaths but that something else is responsible for them. | |||
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"Donald Trump got it right when he said ‘People are dying from this , that haven’t died before’" Does this mean it's not deadly to zombies? | |||
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"Donald Trump got it right when he said ‘People are dying from this , that haven’t died before’ Does this mean it's not deadly to zombies?" I think that's known unknown - just ask Donald (Rumsfeld) | |||
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"Donald Trump got it right when he said ‘People are dying from this , that haven’t died before’ Does this mean it's not deadly to zombies?" Not sure if any caught it yet | |||
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"I think we prob need a few more weeks of data. The only way we will gain a true understanding of a trend is seeing the week by week rate for 2020 , verses the 5 year average. But we should always cross check with the year to date average.to see if its a distribution spike. " The week by week figures are there to see on the ONS website, they are published every week. The next figures will be published around the 21st April for the week ended 10th April and I suspect they will also show a large increase. I attempted to post a link to the figures but the link was too large. Go to ONS.GOV.UK and the figures are easily found. | |||
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"I think we prob need a few more weeks of data. The only way we will gain a true understanding of a trend is seeing the week by week rate for 2020 , verses the 5 year average. But we should always cross check with the year to date average.to see if its a distribution spike. The week by week figures are there to see on the ONS website, they are published every week. The next figures will be published around the 21st April for the week ended 10th April and I suspect they will also show a large increase. I attempted to post a link to the figures but the link was too large. Go to ONS.GOV.UK and the figures are easily found." I agree: the weekly figures are the best ones to compare.
Comparing year to date figures means adding in lots of time when nothing different was happening. | |||
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"I think you will find that the ONS figures for March show no increase in the death rate. April may be different comparing the five year trends. Until this is over the current figures are difficult to compare .." IANAPHS (I am not an public health statistician) but this is a valid point. That being said the ONS published data saying average weekly death rate was a lot higher than normal yesterday. | |||
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"I think we prob need a few more weeks of data. The only way we will gain a true understanding of a trend is seeing the week by week rate for 2020 , verses the 5 year average. But we should always cross check with the year to date average.to see if its a distribution spike. The week by week figures are there to see on the ONS website, they are published every week. The next figures will be published around the 21st April for the week ended 10th April and I suspect they will also show a large increase. I attempted to post a link to the figures but the link was too large. Go to ONS.GOV.UK and the figures are easily found. I agree: the weekly figures are the best ones to compare.
Comparing year to date figures means adding in lots of time when nothing different was happening."The year to date is vert important because there will be a correlation between year to date figures and the figures for people dying of or with Covid-19. The only reliable figures are the actual number of deaths. We have no true data at all on cause if deaths its ie died of or with. So once we get more data we will see if the trends follow ea other. | |||
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"The picture will only become clear this time next year when we can compare last year, this and next, we will then see the truth" In a comparison of that type the coronavirus will be merely a blip, and I doubt if we'll ever really know how many died "of" coronavirus or died "with" coronavirus. Cal | |||
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"I think we prob need a few more weeks of data. The only way we will gain a true understanding of a trend is seeing the week by week rate for 2020 , verses the 5 year average. But we should always cross check with the year to date average.to see if its a distribution spike. The week by week figures are there to see on the ONS website, they are published every week. The next figures will be published around the 21st April for the week ended 10th April and I suspect they will also show a large increase. I attempted to post a link to the figures but the link was too large. Go to ONS.GOV.UK and the figures are easily found. I agree: the weekly figures are the best ones to compare.
Comparing year to date figures means adding in lots of time when nothing different was happening.
The year to date is vert important because there will be a correlation between year to date figures and the figures for people dying of or with Covid-19.
The only reliable figures are the actual number of deaths. We have no true data at all on cause if deaths its ie died of or with.
So once we get more data we will see if the trends follow ea other.
"So a 60% spike in deaths in week 14 still doesn’t convince you that the argument ‘ with or of’ is totally pointless? If there’s a similar spike in week 15 will you then begin to realise that it is the virus that’s killing these people. | |||
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"I think we prob need a few more weeks of data. The only way we will gain a true understanding of a trend is seeing the week by week rate for 2020 , verses the 5 year average. But we should always cross check with the year to date average.to see if its a distribution spike. The week by week figures are there to see on the ONS website, they are published every week. The next figures will be published around the 21st April for the week ended 10th April and I suspect they will also show a large increase. I attempted to post a link to the figures but the link was too large. Go to ONS.GOV.UK and the figures are easily found. I agree: the weekly figures are the best ones to compare.
Comparing year to date figures means adding in lots of time when nothing different was happening.
The year to date is vert important because there will be a correlation between year to date figures and the figures for people dying of or with Covid-19.
The only reliable figures are the actual number of deaths. We have no true data at all on cause if deaths its ie died of or with.
So once we get more data we will see if the trends follow ea other.
So a 60% spike in deaths in week 14 still doesn’t convince you that the argument ‘ with or of’ is totally pointless? If there’s a similar spike in week 15 will you then begin to realise that it is the virus that’s killing these people."Does the ons site have comparison data for the same weeks in 2019? | |||
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"I think we prob need a few more weeks of data. The only way we will gain a true understanding of a trend is seeing the week by week rate for 2020 , verses the 5 year average. But we should always cross check with the year to date average.to see if its a distribution spike. The week by week figures are there to see on the ONS website, they are published every week. The next figures will be published around the 21st April for the week ended 10th April and I suspect they will also show a large increase. I attempted to post a link to the figures but the link was too large. Go to ONS.GOV.UK and the figures are easily found. I agree: the weekly figures are the best ones to compare.
Comparing year to date figures means adding in lots of time when nothing different was happening.
The year to date is vert important because there will be a correlation between year to date figures and the figures for people dying of or with Covid-19.
The only reliable figures are the actual number of deaths. We have no true data at all on cause if deaths its ie died of or with.
So once we get more data we will see if the trends follow ea other.
So a 60% spike in deaths in week 14 still doesn’t convince you that the argument ‘ with or of’ is totally pointless? If there’s a similar spike in week 15 will you then begin to realise that it is the virus that’s killing these people.
Does the ons site have comparison data for the same weeks in 2019?"The comparison is an average of the previous 5 years | |||
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"... Does the ons site have comparison data for the same weeks in 2019? The comparison is an average of the previous 5 years" | |||
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"I think we prob need a few more weeks of data. The only way we will gain a true understanding of a trend is seeing the week by week rate for 2020 , verses the 5 year average. But we should always cross check with the year to date average.to see if its a distribution spike. The week by week figures are there to see on the ONS website, they are published every week. The next figures will be published around the 21st April for the week ended 10th April and I suspect they will also show a large increase. I attempted to post a link to the figures but the link was too large. Go to ONS.GOV.UK and the figures are easily found. I agree: the weekly figures are the best ones to compare.
Comparing year to date figures means adding in lots of time when nothing different was happening.
The year to date is vert important because there will be a correlation between year to date figures and the figures for people dying of or with Covid-19.
The only reliable figures are the actual number of deaths. We have no true data at all on cause if deaths its ie died of or with.
So once we get more data we will see if the trends follow ea other.
So a 60% spike in deaths in week 14 still doesn’t convince you that the argument ‘ with or of’ is totally pointless? If there’s a similar spike in week 15 will you then begin to realise that it is the virus that’s killing these people."Hi Max, this is exactly why we need the data. So we can really see the actuals, then it takes away the debate as you suggest. I’m not dismissing how serious this is at all, A few more weeks will show us clear information which is important for us all. | |||
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"As it stands the current msn reported death rate is just under 5000 which is 12,000 less deaths than the common seasonal flu of 2017 and 23,000 deaths less than the seasonal common flu of 2017 to 2018. The MSN reported daily death rate statistics are at best dodgy and at worst fraudulentAND d a deliberate lie on a par with those wmds in Iraq,.. Heres Why. The government and their main stream news propaganda mouthpieces state they get their daily confirmed corona case and fatality stats from Public Health England. Public Health Englands state they get these confirmed corona cases and fatality stats from their doctors in the hospitals. ….and the doctors in the empty hospitals tell everyone who has a slight cough to stay away from the hospitals.....So the question s why are is the government and its main stream news propaganda mouthpiece channels and the governemnts health body ..public health England lying about where they get these daily confirmed corona cases and fatality statistics from ? " | |||
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