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Count down to Magic 70

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

Rewind back to April and for many of us the magical figure of 70% double jabs seemed a bit of a pipedream.

Where does this 70% come from? Our understanding is that it's a thumbsuck figure where communities start to develop herd immunity. It varies due to a lot of factors including population density. Does the virus just magically go away when you hit 70%? Is it binary?

In this coundown to 70% vaccination let us look at where we are now:

From Canarian Weekly:

Vaccination:

Total administered: 1,858,619 doses.

Immunised: 786,722 people (42,12%)

One dose: 1,147,717 people (60.53%)

Target: 1,871,033 (adult population over 16)

In the UK... according to gov.uk

1st dose 85.5

2nd dose 63.1

Anyone following Canarian Weekly will have noticed that that the target population suddenly jumped from 1.348 million to 1.871 million. That's a lot of 16th birthdays!!!

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By *ay68Man
over a year ago

London

Why 70% ? Well, when most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection,or herd immunity, to those who are not immune to the disease.

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control

The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated. For polio, the threshold is about 80%. 

The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not known. The general theory is between 60% - 70%, but

Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to President Joe Biden, recently said that as much as 90% of the population would need antibodies against Covid-19 for the US to reach herd immunity. “We need to have some humility here,” he told the New York Times. “We really don’t know what the real number is.”

Meanwhile...keep on vaccinating, you doctors on Gran Canaria!!

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria


"Why 70% ? Well, when most of a population is immune to an infectious disease, this provides indirect protection,or herd immunity, to those who are not immune to the disease.

For example, if 80% of a population is immune to a virus, four out of every five people who encounter someone with the disease won’t get sick (and won’t spread the disease any further). In this way, the spread of infectious diseases is kept under control

The percentage of people who need to be immune in order to achieve herd immunity varies with each disease. For example, herd immunity against measles requires about 95% of a population to be vaccinated. The remaining 5% will be protected by the fact that measles will not spread among those who are vaccinated. For polio, the threshold is about 80%. 

The proportion of the population that must be vaccinated against COVID-19 to begin inducing herd immunity is not known. The general theory is between 60% - 70%, but

Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to President Joe Biden, recently said that as much as 90% of the population would need antibodies against Covid-19 for the US to reach herd immunity. “We need to have some humility here,” he told the New York Times. “We really don’t know what the real number is.”

Meanwhile...keep on vaccinating, you doctors on Gran Canaria!!

"

Well Germany has just updated their travel restrictions and whilst still advising against travel to the Canary Islands has not gone so far as to add them to their blacklist. This is because of the progress being made on vaccinations.

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

Now that the Canarians have decided to vaccinate 12 to 15 year olds the target population now increases to 1,960,774.

Because of this our vaccination rate for 1 dose slides back to 61.04%. Were it not for this we would be at 63.97%

42.6% of the target population have had both doses or the single dose Janssen.

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

62.24% of the target population have had a single dose. Had it not been for the inclusion of 12 - 16 year olds in this figure the percentage would have been 65.22%

44.43% have completed their full vaccination shedule.

No deaths on the island today as well as low hospitalisations. People are taking longer to recover from the Delta Variant, however.

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

12/07/2021 Vaccination:

Total administered: 2,080,798 doses.

Immunised: 919,355 people (46.89%)

One dose: 1,261,459 people (64.33 %)

Doses administered this week: 155,527

Target: 1,960,774 (population over 12 years old)

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

Single dose - 67.42% of the original target of 1,871,033 (People over 16).

How close will we come to 70% by kid July?

With Mass Vaccinations of the Janssen single dose taking place on Sundays, 70% achievable in August ahead of the original aim of September...

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By *ay68Man
over a year ago

London

Once the target figure of 70% has been reached, how soon after do you think the number of new infections will start to come down?

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria


"Once the target figure of 70% has been reached, how soon after do you think the number of new infections will start to come down?"

The problem at present is that the majority of infections are in the 20 - 29 age group and this demographic see no reason to be vaccinated. They don't see themselves as being at risk, they don't see themselves as risking others since our vulnerable are 100% vaccinated. They also don't have the responsibility as a whole to understand that their lack of responsibility is damaging the tourism industry.

So if this population of over 200 000 gets their immunity the old fashioned way at a linear progression of 200 a day it will take years.

The question currently being posed by many is what's the problem with high infection rates? Hospitalisations are the same as when infection rates were low. Same for deaths. We've had one person with underlying conditions under 12 die with Covid-19, not one person in the 20 - 29 age group die with Covid-19. So is this the metric that we should be looking at? Right through Covid-19 around the world younger people have been generally less affected by the virus, so is it worth putting the world on hold for something that for this age group is just another flu?

Yesterday over 31 000 people in the UK were infected with Covid-19. 6 people died with Covid. If this were the seasonal flu, that stat wouldn't make headlines.

So to answer your question, vaccination rate seems to be INCREASING infections through complacency. But the severity of the number of infections is having less inpact in terms of damage done.

Personally I think we need to stop looking at infection rates in isolation and weigh up the risks.

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

Vaccination: Total administered: 2,225,828 doses.

Immunised: 996,505 people (50.82%)

One dose: 1,335,087 people (68.09%)

Doses administered this week: 149,152

Target: 1,960,774 (population over 12 years old)

This means that 71.36% of the target population over 16 have now had their first dose.

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

Been a while since I updated this and with speculation that Canaries will go onto Amber Plus worth looking at:

Vaccination: 

Total administered: 2,451,103 doses.

Immunised: 1,119,654 people (57.10%)

One dose: 1,448,898 people (73.89%)

Target: 1,960,774 (population over 12 years old)

The largest jump in vaccination by age group is in the 20 to 29 year olds. This is crucial because they are also the demographic with the lions share of new infections.

I look at data on a daily basis and noticed that the current spike took off shortly after the school holidays started. The under 20s constitute the second highest group for new infections. Whilst this looks bad on paper there is yet to be a fatality in the Canaries in the 12 - 20 age group and one (6 month old with underlying health issues) below the age of 12.

Our older age groups are over 99% fully vaccinated.

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By *exbombs08Couple
over a year ago

Dundee


"Been a while since I updated this and with speculation that Canaries will go onto Amber Plus worth looking at:

Vaccination: 

Total administered: 2,451,103 doses.

Immunised: 1,119,654 people (57.10%)

One dose: 1,448,898 people (73.89%)

Target: 1,960,774 (population over 12 years old)

The largest jump in vaccination by age group is in the 20 to 29 year olds. This is crucial because they are also the demographic with the lions share of new infections.

I look at data on a daily basis and noticed that the current spike took off shortly after the school holidays started. The under 20s constitute the second highest group for new infections. Whilst this looks bad on paper there is yet to be a fatality in the Canaries in the 12 - 20 age group and one (6 month old with underlying health issues) below the age of 12.

Our older age groups are over 99% fully vaccinated. "

Massively appreciate the updates GC, we are hoping to be there in just over 7 weeks and these updates give us a bit of hope. xxx

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria


"Been a while since I updated this and with speculation that Canaries will go onto Amber Plus worth looking at:

Vaccination: 

Total administered: 2,451,103 doses.

Immunised: 1,119,654 people (57.10%)

One dose: 1,448,898 people (73.89%)

Target: 1,960,774 (population over 12 years old)

The largest jump in vaccination by age group is in the 20 to 29 year olds. This is crucial because they are also the demographic with the lions share of new infections.

I look at data on a daily basis and noticed that the current spike took off shortly after the school holidays started. The under 20s constitute the second highest group for new infections. Whilst this looks bad on paper there is yet to be a fatality in the Canaries in the 12 - 20 age group and one (6 month old with underlying health issues) below the age of 12.

Our older age groups are over 99% fully vaccinated.

Massively appreciate the updates GC, we are hoping to be there in just over 7 weeks and these updates give us a bit of hope. xxx"

You are most welcome! We can't wait to welcome you to the island. Have everything crossed for you guys!

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

Been a while since we've updated this so here goes...

Vaccination:

Total administered: 2,751,276 doses.

Immunised: 1,322,090 people (67.43%)

One dose: 1,580,233 people (80.59%)

Target: 1,960,774 (population over 12 years old)

When we originally started this thread the target population was people people aged over 16. We estimated that we would reach this target mid August and the 70% target for over 16s was reached earlier this week a few days ahead of schedule.

IA7s for all the Islands continue to fall, Tenerife so much so that GC is now above Tenerife in that regard.

There is a big decision being made on the 19th when we are expecting some rule changes.

In summary, things are improving fast, there's light at the end of the tunnel and we are slowly returning to normality

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

The Canary Islands have reached the goal of having 70% of the target population over 12 years of age fully vaccinated against Covid-19, according to the Ministry of Health last night, adding that 1,960,774 people have received at least one dose of the vaccine, representing 81.07% of the target population, and figures that mean every second jab now inoculated takes us one jab closer to herd immunity and containing the virus.

https://www.canarianweekly.com/posts/canaries-heading-herd-immunity

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By *ay68Man
over a year ago

London

It has been a long time getting here, but I think we can all breath a small sigh of relief!

For the last 6 months we have all been arguing about the speed of the vaccination programme, how quickly the target figure would be achieved and even if aiming for 70% as a target actually meant very much!

But we are finally there - which is a great psychological boost if nothing else.

Let's now see those infection rates start to plummet please

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria


"It has been a long time getting here, but I think we can all breath a small sigh of relief!

For the last 6 months we have all been arguing about the speed of the vaccination programme, how quickly the target figure would be achieved and even if aiming for 70% as a target actually meant very much!

But we are finally there - which is a great psychological boost if nothing else.

Let's now see those infection rates start to plummet please "

Infection rates here have taken a nose dive. The fact that we are still in level 4 has left us absolutely dumbstruck.

They really can't keep us under these restrictions much longer.

We are just waiting for normality to return so we can see our friends again and get the party started..... So seriously in the mood!!!

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By *lue692u2Couple
over a year ago

mainland spain and Mallorca

I'm lost on all this , covid rules and regulations , live your life x

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

For those of you still with half an eye on the covid situation in GC. How are we doing? Well here it it is folks.

For those who said we wouldn't hit 70% by mid September you were right! We're going to hit 80% double vaccinations

Is it having an effect? Undoubtedly. Today 1498 people previously positive tested negative whilst we only had 102 new cases across the archipelago.

Statistically speaking it means:

The R number which needs to be below 1 is 0.8

The positivity rate needs to be 4.5 is 4.33.

The IA7 is 42.6 and the IA14 is 102.71.

A vast improvement of where we were just a few weeks ago

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By *exysinnersCouple
over a year ago

Somewhere in the South West

Great News, Looking forward to getting out there.

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

[Removed by poster at 25/09/21 21:23:32]

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria

We don't hear about Covid-19 on the island any more... why is that?

Today there were only 17 new cases in Gran Canaria.

The IA7 for GC has dropped to 21.62 and the IA7 for the islands as a a group is 24.91.

Visitors to PDI will be happy to know that there are only 21 are in the municipal area of San Bartolomé de Tirajana.

Basically the data is the same as when we used to be at level 1 and why GC is at Level 2 is a mystery to everyone except the Canarian Government.

The fully vaccinated population over 12 years old now stands at 82.13% and is closing the gap between single dose (84.42%). We are already planning to fo 84.42% shots for the vulnerable.

All very positive news. In fact the inly negatives are all the tests that are showing a negative result 

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By *weet HarmonyMan
over a year ago

Oxfordshire

Thanks for the update. These are very promising figures!

Can’t wait to get out there on 8th Oct

(With a visit or 2 to Eden of course!)

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By *amissCouple
over a year ago

chelmsford


"We don't hear about Covid-19 on the island any more... why is that?

Today there were only 17 new cases in Gran Canaria.

The IA7 for GC has dropped to 21.62 and the IA7 for the islands as a a group is 24.91.

Visitors to PDI will be happy to know that there are only 21 are in the municipal area of San Bartolomé de Tirajana.

Basically the data is the same as when we used to be at level 1 and why GC is at Level 2 is a mystery to everyone except the Canarian Government.

The fully vaccinated population over 12 years old now stands at 82.13% and is closing the gap between single dose (84.42%). We are already planning to fo 84.42% shots for the vulnerable.

All very positive news. In fact the inly negatives are all the tests that are showing a negative result "

Excellent news!!

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By *den_GC OP   Couple
over a year ago

San Fernando, Gran Canaria


"Thanks for the update. These are very promising figures!

Can’t wait to get out there on 8th Oct

(With a visit or 2 to Eden of course!)"

You are welcome!

We look forward to seeing you!

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