FabSwingers.com mobile

Join us FREE, we're FREE to use

Web's largest swingers site since 2006.

Already registered?
Login here

Back to forum list
Back to Politics

so... looks like the govt made a huge mistake yesterday, re:vote...

Jump to newest
 

By *abio OP   Man
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

bear with me... really interesting twitter thread that lewis goddall of sky news has put up... its worth a read... because i am not sure how many people realised at the time, but its going to be an important point of referencce going forward....

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *abio OP   Man
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

Huge problems storing up for the govt this week:

Plan is to bring MV back tomorrow. Think almost certain not to happen as Speaker will rule out of order as (i) same issue twice (ii) contradicts Letwin amendment which says Brexit related legislation must be agreed first.

There is a common misconception that the govt pulled the vote on Saturday. They did not. They just didn't bring the motion as amended to a division. It went through on the nod. The House decided something. I.e. Letwin, that there is no deal until WAB passes. That is big.

That is why common refrain that Saturday was a "waste of time" or that "they didn't decide anything" is a nonsense.

As a result of that decision, the Speaker has even more justification to refuse the deal coming back. The previous MVs were defeated and the House passed nothing. Yesterday the Commons (when govt walked away from motion) effectively unanimously agreed and 'resolved' the matter.

So that means only route to get the deal through is via the WAB. That is due to take place Tuesday. And that is absolutely fraught with danger. The parliamentary manoeuvres we saw on Saturday will look like a walk in the park compared to the WAB.

It will be amended in every direction. This is why govt wanted to have MV first (same as May's). Establish you have a majority on the deal and hope momentum of that means that coalition of MPs holds throughout the WAB process.

There will be lots of attention paid to the sexiest amendment: a second referendum. But that (prob) still doesn't have enough support. The explosive one is a customs union which probably does and crucially has support from Lab MPs who might back deal but would prefer a CU.

Expect Labour and others to get behind that amendment because it is in effect a massive wrecking amendment to the government's deal. They know Johnson cannot accept it, cannot negotiate it and it would tear the Tory Party apart.

If that happens (and it passes) I don't see any way out for Johnson, other than accepting the reality of the extension and using it to insist on an election where he campaigns for his deal. Tory Party as the Brexit (with a deal) Party.

Basically the govt gave up its best chance of accessing the majority that might well now exist for the deal by not pushing the division on Saturday. Virtually everyone I speak to thinks it was a mistake that they didn't.

DUP votes now in play also means everything (in terms of amendments) even more fluid. As one MP put it to me: "If it was a matrix of options before it’s now galaxy of variables post Letwin."

Other problems abound. There's no guarantee, for example, that the govt even has the votes for a programme motion which would set out when, how and for how long the WAB would be debated. IE they might not even be able to bring the WAB up, or at least, to do so without condition.

Entirely possible MPs try and push programme motion for WAB *beyond* this week, so we can't Brexit by October 31st and def enter extension. So keep eye out for programme motion vote, which is usually a formality but actually a big moment this week. Possibly the biggest.

AND there's the Queen's Speech. Remember that? We were supposed to conclude the votes on it on Monday and Tuesday. But that is all up in the air tomorrow. A vote seems to be planned on Tuesday. Entirely possible govt could lose. First time on a QS since Stanley Baldwin in 1924.

Normally a govt/PM would resign if that happened. It was traditionally a confidence vote. Thanks to the FTPA it no longer is.

But big pressure on Corbyn to table a vote of no confidence if govt does lose. If not then, when?

Seems to me this week (alongside EU's response on duration of extension) will determine if we have an election this year. If it's extension to January and becomes clear govt can't get deal through, election on 5th/12 December most likely.

So erm yeah, hold onto your hats (if you haven’t lost them already). big week.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

The Customs Union is the least damaging way to exit the European Union.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *hetalkingstoveMan
over a year ago

London


"The Customs Union is the least damaging way to exit the European Union.

"

Yep. If May hadn't needlessly ruled it out we could have been out long ago.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *nleashedCrakenMan
over a year ago

Widnes


"The Customs Union is the least damaging way to exit the European Union.

Yep. If May hadn't needlessly ruled it out we could have been out long ago. "

Economically it may be but it leaves with no say at all over are trading relationship with rest of world. Not really "taking back control" is it? More like give up control.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *olly_chromaticTV/TS
over a year ago

Stockport


"The Customs Union is the least damaging way to exit the European Union.

Yep. If May hadn't needlessly ruled it out we could have been out long ago.

Economically it may be but it leaves with no say at all over are trading relationship with rest of world. Not really "taking back control" is it? More like give up control.

"

Yup give up control. Like every single version of brexit.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *andS66Couple
over a year ago

Derby


"Huge problems storing up for the govt this week:

Plan is to bring MV back tomorrow. Think almost certain not to happen as Speaker will rule out of order as (i) same issue twice (ii) contradicts Letwin amendment which says Brexit related legislation must be agreed first.

There is a common misconception that the govt pulled the vote on Saturday. They did not. They just didn't bring the motion as amended to a division. It went through on the nod. The House decided something. I.e. Letwin, that there is no deal until WAB passes. That is big.

That is why common refrain that Saturday was a "waste of time" or that "they didn't decide anything" is a nonsense.

As a result of that decision, the Speaker has even more justification to refuse the deal coming back. The previous MVs were defeated and the House passed nothing. Yesterday the Commons (when govt walked away from motion) effectively unanimously agreed and 'resolved' the matter.

So that means only route to get the deal through is via the WAB. That is due to take place Tuesday. And that is absolutely fraught with danger. The parliamentary manoeuvres we saw on Saturday will look like a walk in the park compared to the WAB.

It will be amended in every direction. This is why govt wanted to have MV first (same as May's). Establish you have a majority on the deal and hope momentum of that means that coalition of MPs holds throughout the WAB process.

There will be lots of attention paid to the sexiest amendment: a second referendum. But that (prob) still doesn't have enough support. The explosive one is a customs union which probably does and crucially has support from Lab MPs who might back deal but would prefer a CU.

Expect Labour and others to get behind that amendment because it is in effect a massive wrecking amendment to the government's deal. They know Johnson cannot accept it, cannot negotiate it and it would tear the Tory Party apart.

If that happens (and it passes) I don't see any way out for Johnson, other than accepting the reality of the extension and using it to insist on an election where he campaigns for his deal. Tory Party as the Brexit (with a deal) Party.

Basically the govt gave up its best chance of accessing the majority that might well now exist for the deal by not pushing the division on Saturday. Virtually everyone I speak to thinks it was a mistake that they didn't.

DUP votes now in play also means everything (in terms of amendments) even more fluid. As one MP put it to me: "If it was a matrix of options before it’s now galaxy of variables post Letwin."

Other problems abound. There's no guarantee, for example, that the govt even has the votes for a programme motion which would set out when, how and for how long the WAB would be debated. IE they might not even be able to bring the WAB up, or at least, to do so without condition.

Entirely possible MPs try and push programme motion for WAB *beyond* this week, so we can't Brexit by October 31st and def enter extension. So keep eye out for programme motion vote, which is usually a formality but actually a big moment this week. Possibly the biggest.

AND there's the Queen's Speech. Remember that? We were supposed to conclude the votes on it on Monday and Tuesday. But that is all up in the air tomorrow. A vote seems to be planned on Tuesday. Entirely possible govt could lose. First time on a QS since Stanley Baldwin in 1924.

Normally a govt/PM would resign if that happened. It was traditionally a confidence vote. Thanks to the FTPA it no longer is.

But big pressure on Corbyn to table a vote of no confidence if govt does lose. If not then, when?

Seems to me this week (alongside EU's response on duration of extension) will determine if we have an election this year. If it's extension to January and becomes clear govt can't get deal through, election on 5th/12 December most likely.

So erm yeah, hold onto your hats (if you haven’t lost them already). big week."

What happens if the EU refuse an extension?

( I know it's a big if, as the EU will lose a billion a month),

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ercuryMan
over a year ago

Grantham

A good analysis Fabio.

Speaker Bercow WILL refuse a MV vote on the deal. He will just say that you had the chance on Saturday and refused to do so.

Court case in Scotland and firework in the HoC today. Just another day in Brexit land.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East


"

Economically it may be but it leaves with no say at all over are trading relationship with rest of world. Not really "taking back control" is it? More like give up control.

"

Our trading relationship with the rest of the world is forged on the buying power of 600 million consumers.

We have a veto on those policies.

It seems to work - the quality and quantity of stuff I can purchase seems fine.

The evidence shows it is fine.

People seem determined to throw this away in order to start from scratch on the strength of 60 million consumers.

It appears to be an ideological argument, rather than one based on any evidence.

And in any event, for a country with the limited capacity and capability of the UK, Brexit is simply too big an undertaking to swallow whole.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

So we're still leaving in a few days then or is Boris digging that ditch

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central


"So we're still leaving in a few days then or is Boris digging that ditch "

Apparently of you just send a photocopy, it absolves you of any need to dig a ditch. He may as well have photocopied his arse, in his own mind, as accepting responsibility for anything is something he doesn't do.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry


"So we're still leaving in a few days then or is Boris digging that ditch "

It is your civic duty to dig it for him. Don't expect him to all the heavy lifting. We should start tweeting photos of ditches to No 10 saying 'don't let your dreams be dreams'

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"So we're still leaving in a few days then or is Boris digging that ditch

It is your civic duty to dig it for him. Don't expect him to all the heavy lifting. We should start tweeting photos of ditches to No 10 saying 'don't let your dreams be dreams'"

I’ll get my shovel

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry

Meaningful vote has been refused by the speaker.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *oxychick35Couple
over a year ago

thornaby


"Meaningful vote has been refused by the speaker."
well theres a shock lol

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Is there a vote in the Houses of Parliament that isn't meaningful?

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *illwill69uMan
over a year ago

moston


"Is there a vote in the Houses of Parliament that isn't meaningful?

"

Yep! Many of them, some are called indicative votes, others non binding votes and of course votes that get ignored, overturned and voided by subsequent amendments to legislation or use of executive secondary legislative powers.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Oh well, they've got themselves another fine mess, haven't they lol.

If this is what an Eton education buys you, perhaps the Mogg and Johnson mummsies and daddies should ask for a refund!

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East


"Meaningful vote has been refused by the speaker.well theres a shock lol"

Nope, you cannot have a second vote!

No, no, no, the Parliament has spoken and the will of Parliament must be upheld.

Must.

Be.

Upheld.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *evil_u_knowMan
over a year ago

city

Or Boris wants to force a new session to start.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

So, for the first time in either May or Johnson's time, there is a majority - fleeting perhaps, but a majority nonetheless - in Parliament for the terms of departure from the EU.

You'd think Johnson would be mightily relieved.

Yet, he's now stopped the Withdrawal Agreement Bill from progressing any further in Parliament.

This is the PM who was adamant he was taking the UK out of the EU by Oct 31.

Now he has stopped the legislative process that would enable this to happen (if not on October 31 then shortly after).

Can anyone make any sense of this?

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ercuryMan
over a year ago

Grantham

Boris knows that we could still leave on October 31st IF the EU refuses an extension (unlikely)

Boris doesn't have any control over anything in the HoC now. So rather than reach out and try and work with people, he would rather play his silly and petulant power games. (It was Parliament that wants the extension, not me)

If he can get a GE soon, then he stands a chance of winning. The longer it goes on, then his appeal is diminishing.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry


"So, for the first time in either May or Johnson's time, there is a majority - fleeting perhaps, but a majority nonetheless - in Parliament for the terms of departure from the EU.

You'd think Johnson would be mightily relieved.

Yet, he's now stopped the Withdrawal Agreement Bill from progressing any further in Parliament.

This is the PM who was adamant he was taking the UK out of the EU by Oct 31.

Now he has stopped the legislative process that would enable this to happen (if not on October 31 then shortly after).

Can anyone make any sense of this?

"

He's now playing wait and see, if the EU offers a long extension, he will call an election in an attempt to get a majority in the HoC. Likely will campaign on 'see it's those bloody euro bastards that are keeping us in'

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

So he would rather abandon the withdrawal agreement altogether and contest an election, than complete what he set out to do and get the agreement ratified in law to enable the UK to leave?

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry


"So he would rather abandon the withdrawal agreement altogether and contest an election, than complete what he set out to do and get the agreement ratified in law to enable the UK to leave?

"

No, yesterday debate has shown that he now has an agreement that some mps are prepared to support subject to scrutiny. Parliament has frustrated his plans repeatedly. So the do or die 31st october pledge is dead in the water.

So if he wants his WAB to pass he will need a parliamentary majority.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *abio OP   Man
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead


"So, for the first time in either May or Johnson's time, there is a majority - fleeting perhaps, but a majority nonetheless - in Parliament for the terms of departure from the EU.

You'd think Johnson would be mightily relieved.

Yet, he's now stopped the Withdrawal Agreement Bill from progressing any further in Parliament.

This is the PM who was adamant he was taking the UK out of the EU by Oct 31.

Now he has stopped the legislative process that would enable this to happen (if not on October 31 then shortly after).

Can anyone make any sense of this?

"

yes..... 2 things...

1) this is where Corbyn was very smart straight after the vote last night by offering to work with the tory whips to set out a reasonable timetable..... as it takes away the excuse they would have had

if johnson had pulled the whole thing last night as he was threatening... it would have made him look really petulant

now we will see what flextension the EU offer.... i would rather it be more than 3 months.... because if the general election is going to be in january, then we are in the same position of trying to get stuff done at break neck speed.....

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East


"So he would rather abandon the withdrawal agreement altogether and contest an election, than complete what he set out to do and get the agreement ratified in law to enable the UK to leave?

No, yesterday debate has shown that he now has an agreement that some mps are prepared to support subject to scrutiny. Parliament has frustrated his plans repeatedly. So the do or die 31st october pledge is dead in the water.

So if he wants his WAB to pass he will need a parliamentary majority."

Morass.

I can think of no other word for this.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *oggoneMan
over a year ago

Derry


"So he would rather abandon the withdrawal agreement altogether and contest an election, than complete what he set out to do and get the agreement ratified in law to enable the UK to leave?

No, yesterday debate has shown that he now has an agreement that some mps are prepared to support subject to scrutiny. Parliament has frustrated his plans repeatedly. So the do or die 31st october pledge is dead in the water.

So if he wants his WAB to pass he will need a parliamentary majority.

Morass.

I can think of no other word for this.

"

By this stage in the brexit drama series the original writers have left the show and the plot changes by the day. It is worse than dallas on acid.

What is clear and I hope it is remembered that a Boris 'dead in a ditch' Johnson pledge has a shelf life of under 30 days. May did see it as her duty to deliver Brexit. Alex is an disloyal opportunistic soul who only wants power by any means.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 
 

By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Take back control?

They don't know what to do with it.

UK used to have a reputation for being stable and boring.

It's been completely destabilised by Brexit.

I doubt history will judge Cameron very fondly for the folly of calling a referendum with no plan for its outcome.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
Post new Message to Thread
back to top