FabSwingers.com forum: A no deal brexit could make the economy permanent smaller.

By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

Is that Colin Ellis of Colin Ellis Property Services of Scarborough?

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 25/07/19 08:36:29]

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

Is that Colin Ellis of Colin Ellis Property Services of Scarborough?

"
No, it the chief credit officer for emea, the news was on the cnbcs site.

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

Is that Colin Ellis of Colin Ellis Property Services of Scarborough?

No, it the chief credit officer for emea, the news was on the cnbcs site.

Yes got it now

Whoever runs Colin Ellis Property Services website should be paid more, they appear in all of the top search results in google when you type Colin Ellis.

Also doesn’t say much for the Colin Ellis at Moody’s as he didn’t show up at all

He interestingly is also saying that the uncertainty is pulling things down more than anything. When asked if a no deal brexit would affect the uk credit rating he didn’t give a straight answer - simply saying ... until we know for certain what is happening it’s not possible to run credit analysis..

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire

Well regardless of our Colin given what Boris and Barnier have both said then somethings got to give..

Fudge anyone?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

Is that Colin Ellis of Colin Ellis Property Services of Scarborough?

No, it the chief credit officer for emea, the news was on the cnbcs site.

Yes got it now

Whoever runs Colin Ellis Property Services website should be paid more, they appear in all of the top search results in google when you type Colin Ellis.

Also doesn’t say much for the Colin Ellis at Moody’s as he didn’t show up at all

In the moody website it says their view is a "no deal Brexit will have significantly negative credit effects for UK sovereign and relate issues"

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire

"Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

Is that Colin Ellis of Colin Ellis Property Services of Scarborough?

No, it the chief credit officer for emea, the news was on the cnbcs site.

Yes got it now

Whoever runs Colin Ellis Property Services website should be paid more, they appear in all of the top search results in google when you type Colin Ellis.

Also doesn’t say much for the Colin Ellis at Moody’s as he didn’t show up at all

In the moody website it says their view is a "no deal Brexit will have significantly negative credit effects for UK sovereign and relate issues" "

Pah..

They need to tune in to Boris fm, the new mantra is positivity..

The vibe is gung ho, get up and go and all will be sunny uplands and great..

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

Is that Colin Ellis of Colin Ellis Property Services of Scarborough?

No, it the chief credit officer for emea, the news was on the cnbcs site.

Yes got it now

Whoever runs Colin Ellis Property Services website should be paid more, they appear in all of the top search results in google when you type Colin Ellis.

Also doesn’t say much for the Colin Ellis at Moody’s as he didn’t show up at all

In the moody website it says their view is a "no deal Brexit will have significantly negative credit effects for UK sovereign and relate issues" "

Risk of negative credit increased

But as mentioned by Colin Ellis - not coming out yet with an official credit analysis until something actually happens

Just as I said

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

Is that Colin Ellis of Colin Ellis Property Services of Scarborough?

No, it the chief credit officer for emea, the news was on the cnbcs site.

Yes got it now

Whoever runs Colin Ellis Property Services website should be paid more, they appear in all of the top search results in google when you type Colin Ellis.

Also doesn’t say much for the Colin Ellis at Moody’s as he didn’t show up at all

In the moody website it says their view is a "no deal Brexit will have significantly negative credit effects for UK sovereign and relate issues"

Risk of negative credit increased

But as mentioned by Colin Ellis - not coming out yet with an official credit analysis until something actually happens

Just as I said "

I may have misunderstood then.

While it's not a full on straight answer I felt their website is giving an indication about no deal rather than just what the uncertainty is doing. Reads to me there will be an impact... Just they won't say what it is exactly.

I'm probably a bit jaded of people using the uncertainty to distract from no deal. My bad if I've dragged you into my cynciysm.

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By *evil_u_knowMan
over a year ago

city

For the average person on the street, smaller might not mean "worse off", it all depends on how the transition is handled.

Can cost of living and property price falling be managed, can people adjust to wage cuts, less promotions, and people in general having to take more "normal" jobs.

In a perfect world where it was managed perfectly. It would just mean Carl and Paul are now working seasonal jobs working fruit, everyone makes a little less, but the property costs less and the cost of living is a little less. People dream of having a million instead of a billion but life goes on.

In a worse case scenario the economy will shrink and everyones savings and property price falling will cause a whole generation to suffer.

With someone like Boris in charge, someone who in my opinion straight up lies, its gonna be hard to guess which way it will go.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

You really think property prices for people renting will decrease? Of course not. You think gas/electric/water bills will decrease? Of course not.

The things that matter to the real average person will not go down, but their income will, therefore they will be worse off.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"For the average person on the street, smaller might not mean "worse off", it all depends on how the transition is handled.

Can cost of living and property price falling be managed, can people adjust to wage cuts, less promotions, and people in general having to take more "normal" jobs.

In a worse case scenario the economy will shrink and everyones savings and property price falling will cause a whole generation to suffer.

With someone like Boris in charge, someone who in my opinion straight up lies, its gonna be hard to guess which way it will go."

What we're Carl and Paul doing before? Why does everything cost a little less?

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

"
Who is he and how does he know?Is he a phycic?

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"Says colin ellis. I agree with him, what is your view?

Who is he and how does he know?Is he a phycic?

He isn’t Colin Ellis of Colin Ellis Property Services in Scarborough

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By *evil_u_knowMan
over a year ago

city

"What we're Carl and Paul doing before? Why does everything cost a little less? "

Because youre eating clorinated chicken, and food from India/africa, that are not allowed in the EU.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"What we're Carl and Paul doing before? Why does everything cost a little less?

Because youre eating clorinated chicken, and food from India/africa, that are not allowed in the EU."
So in a perfect world we are eating worse food?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"What we're Carl and Paul doing before? Why does everything cost a little less?

Because youre eating clorinated chicken, and food from India/africa, that are not allowed in the EU.So in a perfect world we are eating worse food? "

Less regulation on food yes.

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

It's certainly more likely to contract the economy for the foreseeable future as well as force the majority of the population into reduced wellbeing, including financial reductions, job insecurity and being under the boot of an extremist government that will cut public services to the max. An imploding country that will be scavenged upon by other countries for their gain, whilst you suffer

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

The pound is sliding even lower, how low can it go, below the euro?

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"The pound is sliding even lower, how low can it go, below the euro?"
The pound is at its 2 years low.

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

Exporters, make hay while the sun shines

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

Buy british and it wont affect you.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Buy british and it wont affect you.

But unfortunately a lot of the raw materials used in manufacturing in this country is sourced from abroad.

The UK is not big enough to supply all of the materials needed and as much as we would like to think our resources are inexhaustible they are not.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Buy british and it wont affect you.

Now that's something Nigel Farage would say

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

The pound is falling because the money men are selling the pound. They don't want brexit they like everything to remain the same, free market means less control and profit. In the EU prices are fixed so the money men cream off the top; the gravy train coming to an end.The pound will bounce back buy low sell high,best time to buy now and make a killing. Might cost them millions trying to get their way lol.

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By *avidnsa69Man
over a year ago

Essex

"The pound is falling because the money men are selling the pound. They don't want brexit they like everything to remain the same, free market means less control and profit. In the EU prices are fixed so the money men cream off the top; the gravy train coming to an end.The pound will bounce back buy low sell high,best time to buy now and make a killing. Might cost them millions trying to get their way lol. "

What utter tosh. You don't seem to have grasped how the currency markets work at all. The £ will continue to fall against the € but will likely recover against the $ when the Fed reduces interest rates this week

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

Really? That's how you think it works?

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"Buy british and it wont affect you.

We are net importers.

We have to buy from abroad for things to be made in Britain.

You know this.

Why do you always turn things into a joke and tell people to lighten up when you can't find and answer?

It doesn't solve anything or provide a solution.

It's what BoJer does.

Do some thinking. Do some working out.

Find the answer or don't pretend everything is fine.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Headline in the Irish Times:

"Brexit: US/UK trade deal ‘impossible’ if peace accord undermined, warns letter"

"A committee set up in the United States to protect the Belfast Agreement has warned the incoming Northern Ireland Secretary that a future US-UK trade deal will be “all but impossible” if the peace accord is undermined.

"The bipartisan group, which includes five former US ambassadors, two former state governors and foreign policy experts including Nancy Soderberg, said it was “deeply concerned” at UK prime minister Boris Johnson’s rejection of the backstop last week."

“We remain deeply concerned given the new prime minister’s recent statement in the Commons that there can be no Irish backstop in the withdrawal agreement, even one with a time limit,” states the letter to Julian Smith that has been seen by The Irish Times.

“We view the belief that alternative arrangements can easily solve the problem of the Irish Border with a healthy scepticism as do many experts.”

Noting house speaker Nancy Pelosi’s comments to The Irish Times last week that Congress will not sign off on a trade deal if the peace agreement is undermined, the letter states that a trade deal will be “all but impossible”.

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By *anejohnkent6263Couple
over a year ago

canterbury

Boris can build it ...Yes he can

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"Buy british and it wont affect you.

We are net importers.

We have to buy from abroad for things to be made in Britain.

You know this.

Why do you always turn things into a joke and tell people to lighten up when you can't find and answer?

It doesn't solve anything or provide a solution.

It's what BoJer does.

Do some thinking. Do some working out.

Find the answer or don't pretend everything is fine."
Ah now we are net importers now you are getting it they sell more to us than we buy.Been trying to drum that into you for the last couple of years.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Buy british and it wont affect you.

We are net importers.

We have to buy from abroad for things to be made in Britain.

You know this.

Why do you always turn things into a joke and tell people to lighten up when you can't find and answer?

It doesn't solve anything or provide a solution.

It's what BoJer does.

Do some thinking. Do some working out.

Find the answer or don't pretend everything is fine.Ah now we are net importers now you are getting it they sell more to us than we buy.Been trying to drum that into you for the last couple of years."

Has anyone denied this?

We import more than they do So each person will, on average, feel the cost of tariffs.

As a % of gdp, as an export per head, as a % of exports, we export more to them than they do to us. So if you were to take the extreme and carve away all exports and imports between eu and uk, they'd see a lot smaller hit.

The reason behind those two statements which say we need them more from both and import and export pov is down to us being smaller.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

"Ah now we are net importers now you are getting it they sell more to us than we buy.Been trying to drum that into you for the last couple of years."

"They" being 27 (+4) countries with a GDP 8 or 9 times larger than the UK.

This is not a negotiation of equals. It never has been.

If all trade ceased, the 27 (+4) take an 8 per cent hit; the UK takes a 44 per cent hit.

And that does not factor in the changes to trade between the UK and the rest of the world when the UK no longer has access to the EU trade deals.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

In 2018 the EU gdp was estimated at 18.8 trillion dollars, the UK was estimated at 2.4 trillion dollars.

Which economy would be able to absorb a hit with the least disruption?

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By *rench letterCouple
over a year ago

Chorley,

Yeah, got to thank the Brexiters and this bunch or cretins we call the conservative cabinet for the drop in the pound. They are all ready making everyone poorer but it's okay for them on there big fat cat wages.

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By *hetalkingstoveMan
over a year ago

London

Oh guys, using actual facts and logic is so negative. You just gotta close your eyes (and your mind) and be positive and *believe*!

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"In 2018 the EU gdp was estimated at 18.8 trillion dollars, the UK was estimated at 2.4 trillion dollars.

Which economy would be able to absorb a hit with the least disruption?"
The uk, eu wouldnt lose so much as the would make up the difference quickly within the 27 countries, uk only have 7% trade with them, so not much.

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By *rench letterCouple
over a year ago

Chorley,

"Oh guys, using actual facts and logic is so negative. You just gotta close your eyes (and your mind) and be positive and *believe*! "

Believe in what would not trust this bunch with anything. And used to vote Tory.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"Ah now we are net importers now you are getting it they sell more to us than we buy.Been trying to drum that into you for the last couple of years.

"They" being 27 (+4) countries with a GDP 8 or 9 times larger than the UK.

This is not a negotiation of equals. It never has been.

If all trade ceased, the 27 (+4) take an 8 per cent hit; the UK takes a 44 per cent hit.

And that does not factor in the changes to trade between the UK and the rest of the world when the UK no longer has access to the EU trade deals."
No Germany and France would be ok the other countries wont fare so well but they dont give a toss as "hey we are all in the eu together"

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Ah now we are net importers now you are getting it they sell more to us than we buy.Been trying to drum that into you for the last couple of years.

"They" being 27 (+4) countries with a GDP 8 or 9 times larger than the UK.

This is not a negotiation of equals. It never has been.

If all trade ceased, the 27 (+4) take an 8 per cent hit; the UK takes a 44 per cent hit.

And that does not factor in the changes to trade between the UK and the rest of the world when the UK no longer has access to the EU trade deals.No Germany and France would be ok the other countries wont fare so well but they dont give a toss as "hey we are all in the eu together""

Which country are exposed to the uk the most? Numbers pls

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

The New York Times had a piece earlier this year about the impact of Brexit.

The UK by far the most exposed to harm.

It identified five EU states most vulnerable to the fallout.

Ireland was first.

I cannot remember the rest now, but it may have included Netherlands, Denmark and Germany.

Other countries were relatively unscathed.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"Ah now we are net importers now you are getting it they sell more to us than we buy.Been trying to drum that into you for the last couple of years.

"They" being 27 (+4) countries with a GDP 8 or 9 times larger than the UK.

This is not a negotiation of equals. It never has been.

If all trade ceased, the 27 (+4) take an 8 per cent hit; the UK takes a 44 per cent hit.

Which country are exposed to the uk the most? Numbers pls"
Well germany is the biggest but guess they can wear it 2nd spain 3rd netherlands 4th belguim 5th poland 6th italy and so it goes on we have a deficit with every one of them as we are their 2nd biggest market after germany.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Ah now we are net importers now you are getting it they sell more to us than we buy.Been trying to drum that into you for the last couple of years.

"They" being 27 (+4) countries with a GDP 8 or 9 times larger than the UK.

This is not a negotiation of equals. It never has been.

If all trade ceased, the 27 (+4) take an 8 per cent hit; the UK takes a 44 per cent hit.

Which country are exposed to the uk the most? Numbers plsWell germany is the biggest but guess they can wear it 2nd spain 3rd netherlands 4th belguim 5th poland 6th italy and so it goes on we have a deficit with every one of them as we are their 2nd biggest market after germany."

But what % are we of their gdp or export market. If they are only doing 5% of their export business with us, they can absorb it a lot better than a country doing say 40%...

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

8% of exports from the EU27 go to the UK.

44% of exports from the UK go to the EU27.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Ah now we are net importers now you are getting it they sell more to us than we buy.Been trying to drum that into you for the last couple of years.

"They" being 27 (+4) countries with a GDP 8 or 9 times larger than the UK.

This is not a negotiation of equals. It never has been.

If all trade ceased, the 27 (+4) take an 8 per cent hit; the UK takes a 44 per cent hit.

There's lists on the net that breakdown the exact trade amounts for every single country the UK trades with

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

spain and italy will suffer a double whammy now with the pound to euro ratio, people will start going to non euro countries for a cheaper deal.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"spain and italy will suffer a double whammy now with the pound to euro ratio, people will start going to non euro countries for a cheaper deal."

Yes, ...which is not us, ....explain again how this was a good thing.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"spain and italy will suffer a double whammy now with the pound to euro ratio, people will start going to non euro countries for a cheaper deal.

Yes, ...which is not us, ....explain again how this was a good thing."
Try reading the whole thread and the conversation being had before jumping in feet 1st.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"spain and italy will suffer a double whammy now with the pound to euro ratio, people will start going to non euro countries for a cheaper deal."

Turkeys my fav

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"spain and italy will suffer a double whammy now with the pound to euro ratio, people will start going to non euro countries for a cheaper deal."
which currencies are we doing well against atm?

The positive is maybe more people will staycation. Which plays into the big brexit positiveoof enforced green behaviours. Alongside lower red meat consumption.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Anyway, more good news

On the bright side, the pound sterling is not the worst performing currency in the world today. That accolade goes to the Madagascan Ariary. The pound, on the other hand, is only the second-worst performing currency in the entire world

Great news

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By *abioMan
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

here is what the Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) said about prospect of the no deal brexit a few days ago....

"In Chapter 10 we carry out a fiscal ‘stress test’ that quantifies the impact on the public finances of a particular no-deal, no-transition Brexit scenario, namely the less disruptive of the two presented by the IMF in its April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

While it is a scenario, rather than a forecast, it is nevertheless useful for exploring the channels through which the public finances might respond in the case of a no-deal Brexit.

Heightened uncertainty and declining confidence deter investment, while higher trade barriers with the EU weigh on exports. Together, these push the economy into recession, with asset prices and the pound falling sharply. Real GDP falls by 2% by the end of 2020 and is 4% below our March forecast by that point. Higher trade barriers also slow growth in potential productivity, while lower net inward migration reduces labour force growth, so potential output is lower than the baseline throughout the scenario (and beyond).

The imposition of tariffs and the sterling depreciation raise inflation and squeeze real household incomes, but the monetary policy committee is able to cut bank rate to support demand, helping to bring output back towards potential and inflation back towards target.

Borrowing is around £30bn a year higher than our March forecast from 2020-21 onwards. Lower receipts – in particular income tax and NICs (due to the recession) and capital taxes (due to weaker asset prices) – explain most of the deterioration. These are partly offset by lower debt interest spending (thanks to lower interest rates and RPI inflation) and the revenue raised customs duties (which are treated as EU rather than UK taxes in the baseline). Higher borrowing and the assumed rollover of Term Funding Scheme loans leave public sector net debt around 12% of GDP higher than our March forecast by 2023-24."

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

The usual tool for curbing inflation is raising of interest rates. That's a night scenario for the Conservatives - people who have borrowed to the hilt finding they can no longer afford mortgage payments etc.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"The usual tool for curbing inflation is raising of interest rates. That's a night scenario for the Conservatives - people who have borrowed to the hilt finding they can no longer afford mortgage payments etc.

"
Raising interest rates causes inflation not the other way round

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

Raising interest rates causes inflation not the other way round"

Lol - is that the post truth Brexit version?

Oh dear...

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

Economics nothing to do with brexit

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By *bandjam91Couple
over a year ago

London

Raising interest rates causes inflation not the other way round"

No, reducing interests causes inflation. Maybe you should listen to them economical experts after all.

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By *bandjam91Couple
over a year ago

London

"Economics nothing to do with brexit"

Hahahahahahahahahahah [facepalm]. Jesus, Google takes 2 mins, at least give a sh*t and check before you post.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Economics nothing to do with brexit"
It got everything to with economics, brexit will likely reduce the real per capita income level in the uk.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

“Easiest deal in history”

“We hold all the cards”

“The German car industry will force a deal”

“We’ll negotiate a new deal before we start the process to leave”

“No one is threatening our place in the single market”

People voted for No Deal why do you hate democracy?

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"Economics nothing to do with brexit

Hahahahahahahahahahah [facepalm]. Jesus, Google takes 2 mins, at least give a sh*t and check before you post."
Taking stuff out of context makes you look pretty stupid

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By *bandjam91Couple
over a year ago

London

"Economics nothing to do with brexit

Hahahahahahahahahahah [facepalm]. Jesus, Google takes 2 mins, at least give a sh*t and check before you post.Taking stuff out of context makes you look pretty stupid"

Posting nonsense does a better job of that.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Raising interest rates causes inflation not the other way round"

Oh my fucking god!!!

Higher interest rates reduce demand, leading to lower economic growth and lower inflation.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Economics nothing to do with brexit

Hahahahahahahahahahah [facepalm]. Jesus, Google takes 2 mins, at least give a sh*t and check before you post.

Taking stuff out of context makes you look pretty stupid

Posting nonsense does a better job of that."

Never been a truer word typed

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By *_Naked_Ambition_UKMan
over a year ago

Ealing

Not utter tosh at all. The pound WILL bounce back against both Dollar, and especially against the Euro, when it eventually collapses. Only thing is that will probably take a couple of years at least.

Short term the pound has further to fall against € and $, and the Fed cutting rates later today won’t stop that.

Probably heading to $1.10

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By *avidnsa69Man
over a year ago

Essex

Not utter tosh at all. The pound WILL bounce back against both Dollar, and especially against the Euro, when it eventually collapses. Only thing is that will probably take a couple of years at least.

Short term the pound has further to fall against € and $, and the Fed cutting rates later today won’t stop that.

Probably heading to $1.10"

People like you have been promising the € will collapse for years....well it hasn't and won't. The only surprise is that you're not trying to use the facile argument that sterling Is overvalued

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By *bandjam91Couple
over a year ago

London

Not utter tosh at all. The pound WILL bounce back against both Dollar, and especially against the Euro, when it eventually collapses. Only thing is that will probably take a couple of years at least.

Short term the pound has further to fall against € and $, and the Fed cutting rates later today won’t stop that.

Probably heading to $1.10"

So, to clarify, all the economists are wrong because no-one knows what will happen after Brexit.

Yet, you personally can absolutely guarantee what the currency markets will do.

Interesting opinion. Total sh*te but interesting.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

"Economics nothing to do with brexit"

Never a truer word said.

The economic arguments were ignored by most of the electorate in 2016.

Which makes it all the more bizarre in 2019 that people think economic arguments - the EU can't afford the fall-out - will save them from the catastrophe of their own making.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Economics nothing to do with brexit

Never a truer word said.

The economic arguments were ignored by most of the electorate in 2016.

Which makes it all the more bizarre in 2019 that people think economic arguments - the EU can't afford the fall-out - will save them from the catastrophe of their own making.

From my experience it has been Leavers saying we will be better off economically leaving then as report after report comes out and facts start to be sort of accepted by them the argument changes to Brexit wasn't anything to do with economics.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Raab is the latest to re-write his own history.

Declaring how he spoke about No Deal during the referendum.

Except that everyone who searches the transcripts and reports cannot find a single thing.

I saw a graph the other day showing that No Deal wasn't even searched on Google until after the referendum.

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire

"Raab is the latest to re-write his own history.

Declaring how he spoke about No Deal during the referendum.

Except that everyone who searches the transcripts and reports cannot find a single thing.

I saw a graph the other day showing that No Deal wasn't even searched on Google until after the referendum.

He was pulled up on it the other day on R4, just another post referendum lie..

Will be swallowed as truth no doubt by some..

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Leadsom even had the gall to declare that everyone knew in 2016 there would job losses, closures etc - it was in the Government leaflet that went to every household!

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"Leadsom even had the gall to declare that everyone knew in 2016 there would job losses, closures etc - it was in the Government leaflet that went to every household!

The government leaflet primarily set out the governments position on why the uk should vote to remain.

However the leaflet did say "What happens if we leave?

Voting to leave the EU would create years of uncertainty and potential economic disruption. This would reduce investment and cost jobs."

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

And completely and utterly condemned at the time as Project Fear by, um, er, Leadsom and her chums.

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"Leadsom even had the gall to declare that everyone knew in 2016 there would job losses, closures etc "

So she isn't incorrect .

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

False.

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"False."

The leaflet didn't say, "Voting to leave the EU would create years of uncertainty and potential economic disruption. This would reduce investment and cost jobs"?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"False.

The leaflet didn't say, "Voting to leave the EU would create years of uncertainty and potential economic disruption. This would reduce investment and cost jobs"?"

The leaflet did say voting to leave could lead to years of uncertainty for businesses.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"False.

The leaflet didn't say, "Voting to leave the EU would create years of uncertainty and potential economic disruption. This would reduce investment and cost jobs"?"
correct heres the link to the leaflet.https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515068/why-the-government-believes-that-voting-to-remain-in-the-european-union-is-the-best-decision-for-the-uk.pdf People were informed on what they were voting for.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Look at you lot, clinging to Project Fear - oops, I mean, Project Fact.

It's really quite desperate stuff.

Where's all that cake you promised us?

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"Look at you lot, clinging to Project Fear - oops, I mean, Project Fact.

It's really quite desperate stuff.

Where's all that cake you promised us?

So Leadsome was correct then...

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

She's talking about people who voted Leave.

They knew they were putting their jobs at risk by doing so, she claims.

Is that true?

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

[Removed by poster at 31/07/19 21:38:17]

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"She's talking about people who voted Leave.

They knew they were putting their jobs at risk by doing so, she claims.

Is that true?

Leavers, remainers - The information was there for everyone

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"She's talking about people who voted Leave.

They knew they were putting their jobs at risk by doing so, she claims.

Is that true?

Leavers, remainers - The information was there for everyone "

So why have leavers been saying we will be better off in every regard by leaving then

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"She's talking about people who voted Leave.

They knew they were putting their jobs at risk by doing so, she claims.

Is that true?

Leavers, remainers - The information was there for everyone

So why have leavers been saying we will be better off in every regard by leaving then

We will be better off

New golden age - energized - positive - can do

Latest YouGov poll : voting intention : Conservatives 32% Labour 22% LibDem 19%

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"She's talking about people who voted Leave.

They knew they were putting their jobs at risk by doing so, she claims.

Is that true?

Leavers, remainers - The information was there for everyone

So why have leavers been saying we will be better off in every regard by leaving then

We will be better off

New golden age - energized - positive - can do

Latest YouGov poll : voting intention : Conservatives 32% Labour 22% LibDem 19%

I know and I can't wait for the full effects of a no deal Brexit to start improving our County

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"She's talking about people who voted Leave.

They knew they were putting their jobs at risk by doing so, she claims.

Is that true?

Leavers, remainers - The information was there for everyone

So why have leavers been saying we will be better off in every regard by leaving then

We will be better off

New golden age - energized - positive - can do

Latest YouGov poll : voting intention : Conservatives 32% Labour 22% LibDem 19%

You don't even believe that.

That's good enough for you though.

That's a shame.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Farage said today on hus shie hardly anyone mentioned the irish botder until after the vote. Exveot Blair and Major.

If true, noone really gave any thought to ghe hard bit of brexit.

Yet everyone knew what they voted for...

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By *_Naked_Ambition_UKMan
over a year ago

Ealing

Not utter tosh at all. The pound WILL bounce back against both Dollar, and especially against the Euro, when it eventually collapses. Only thing is that will probably take a couple of years at least.

Short term the pound has further to fall against € and $, and the Fed cutting rates later today won’t stop that.

Probably heading to $1.10

So, to clarify, all the economists are wrong because no-one knows what will happen after Brexit.

Yet, you personally can absolutely guarantee what the currency markets will do.

Interesting opinion. Total sh*te but interesting."

No, not “all the economists” are wrong, because not “all the economists” have said the pound cannot recover.

Major currencies are not like shares that can go to zero, they always revert back to a mean, as history proves.

Given the pound is dropping because of uncertainty, it will recover once certainty is restored and facts surrounding the deal, or even ‘no deal’, are clear.

It’s really not rocket science, so don’t know why you’re struggling..

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By *_Naked_Ambition_UKMan
over a year ago

Ealing

Not utter tosh at all. The pound WILL bounce back against both Dollar, and especially against the Euro, when it eventually collapses. Only thing is that will probably take a couple of years at least.

Short term the pound has further to fall against € and $, and the Fed cutting rates later today won’t stop that.

Probably heading to $1.10

People like you have been promising the € will collapse for years....well it hasn't and won't. The only surprise is that you're not trying to use the facile argument that sterling Is overvalued"

You say € will survive, I say it won’t.

You also said the pound would ‘likely recover’ against the $ when the FED cut rates, and I told you it wouldn’t.

We now see the pound has continued to drop against the $- even from the second the cut was announced.

If you can’t predict markets correctly over 24hrs, you’ll forgive me for not trusting your outlook over the next few years.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Brexit vote was not about economy though was it ?

Wrong rabbit hole again. derrrrrrr.

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

Not utter tosh at all. The pound WILL bounce back against both Dollar, and especially against the Euro, when it eventually collapses. Only thing is that will probably take a couple of years at least.

Short term the pound has further to fall against € and $, and the Fed cutting rates later today won’t stop that.

Probably heading to $1.10

So, to clarify, all the economists are wrong because no-one knows what will happen after Brexit.

Yet, you personally can absolutely guarantee what the currency markets will do.

Interesting opinion. Total sh*te but interesting.

No, not “all the economists” are wrong, because not “all the economists” have said the pound cannot recover.

Major currencies are not like shares that can go to zero, they always revert back to a mean, as history proves.

Given the pound is dropping because of uncertainty, it will recover once certainty is restored and facts surrounding the deal, or even ‘no deal’, are clear.

It’s really not rocket science, so don’t know why you’re struggling.. "

“Currencies always revert to a mean” ?

What exactly is that supposed to suggest?

A currency is regarded as the pulse of a nation and it can only ever revert to normal if the economic health and outlook of the nation is “normal.”

The GBP is currently the second most volatile currency on the planet because no-one has any confidence in the mid to long term prospects of the economy based on its current trajectory.

The people who are making these decisions have no emotional attachment to the currency - it is all about economic indicators. Most people who are making excuses about the fall are doing so because of their emotional attachment to the Brexit ideology.

The simple fact is the economic outlook for the U.K. is very poor. The Prime Minister himself is furthering and pushing that prognosis and if we do end up with no deal you can realistically expect parity with the $USD or thereabouts.

Historically, incompetent Governments would raise interest rates to artificially strengthen the currency and make the population pay for their incompetence through higher lending costs and a further weakened economy. Johnson can’t do this because the BoE is now independent but it would not surprise me to see the Govt declare a seizure of control of the BoE if the worst happens and they justify such an action by citing a (self inflicted) national emergency.

As an aside, the collapsing GBP is going to be an even bigger problem if the Iran issue gets any worse and the Iranians start blocking the straits of Hormuz. Look back to 1973 and the economic conditions that pre-empted our IMF bailout and international humiliation.

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By *_Naked_Ambition_UKMan
over a year ago

Ealing

Not utter tosh at all. The pound WILL bounce back against both Dollar, and especially against the Euro, when it eventually collapses. Only thing is that will probably take a couple of years at least.

Short term the pound has further to fall against € and $, and the Fed cutting rates later today won’t stop that.

Probably heading to $1.10

So, to clarify, all the economists are wrong because no-one knows what will happen after Brexit.

Yet, you personally can absolutely guarantee what the currency markets will do.

Interesting opinion. Total sh*te but interesting.

No, not “all the economists” are wrong, because not “all the economists” have said the pound cannot recover.

Major currencies are not like shares that can go to zero, they always revert back to a mean, as history proves.

Given the pound is dropping because of uncertainty, it will recover once certainty is restored and facts surrounding the deal, or even ‘no deal’, are clear.

It’s really not rocket science, so don’t know why you’re struggling..

“Currencies always revert to a mean” ?

What exactly is that supposed to suggest?

A currency is regarded as the pulse of a nation and it can only ever revert to normal if the economic health and outlook of the nation is “normal.”

The GBP is currently the second most volatile currency on the planet because no-one has any confidence in the mid to long term prospects of the economy based on its current trajectory.

Revert to a mean simple means that after a major currency pair has a dramatic rise or fall, it always corrects to around the mid point of its overall range.

But please don’t take my word for it. Just look at the chart of any major currency pair from Pound/dollar, to Aussie dollar/Japanese Yen etc, going back decades. Look at the extreme highs and lows, and see how price always (eventually) reverts to around the mid point of the trendline.

If there is a no deal and the £ goes to $1.10 like I expect, or even parity like you say (certainly possible), then I would expect a rally back to $1.30-1.40 over the following years as the dust settles.

Also not true to say ‘no one has any confidence in the long term prospects of the UK’, when arguably the greatest investor alive, Warren Buffett, has said he will invest in the UK regardless of the Brexit outcome.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 01/08/19 10:49:28]

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"The pound is falling because the money men are selling the pound."
No, it is the uncertainty of brexit and if there is a no deal, the pound will drop even more.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

How fucking boring! Let's move to Spain and have a party!!!!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Brexit vote was not about economy though was it ?

Wrong rabbit hole again. derrrrrrr."

Wasn't it?

It's like nearly everyone who voted to leave had different reasons for voting leave when it suits.

No one campaigned for Brexit saying it will make us worse off did they yet remainers said we'd be worse off for the last 3 years yet leavers branded that "project fear" and we'd be better off leaving.

Now as the cost of Brexit is steadily mounting up and up and up leavers NOW say it was never about the economy at all.... Ignoring all the WTO bluster from leavers about making everything cheaper, ring any bells lol

No, it was never anything to do with the economy was it

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Independant foundation Bertelsmann Stiftung estimates a cost to uk of 57bn euros each year under hard Brexit

Thats a lot of hospitals.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Independant foundation Bertelsmann Stiftung estimates a cost to uk of 57bn euros each year under hard Brexit

Thats a lot of hospitals. "
So you believe if we cancel Brexit the government will spead that money building hospitals. I think not they will just waste it somewhere else, so might as well use it to ease Brexit.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Independant foundation Bertelsmann Stiftung estimates a cost to uk of 57bn euros each year under hard Brexit

Thats a lot of hospitals. So you believe if we cancel Brexit the government will spead that money building hospitals. I think not they will just waste it somewhere else, so might as well use it to ease Brexit. "

Brexit at any cost.

As they say whenever the eu fee is mentioned, this is our money.

This is a nuts amount to lose from our wealth each year. Its 1k is per person.

Maybe every leaver should give a remainer 1k to put them back to where we are now...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Independant foundation Bertelsmann Stiftung estimates a cost to uk of 57bn euros each year under hard Brexit

Brexit at any cost.

As they say whenever the eu fee is mentioned, this is our money.

This is a nuts amount to lose from our wealth each year. Its 1k is per person.

Maybe every leaver should give a remainer 1k to put them back to where we are now...

We are possibly going to spend/lose £30 billion a year to save us the 8 or 9 billion EU membership fee.

I'm not surprised leavers now say Brexit wasn't anything to do about economics lol

Though if Brexit has nothing to do with economics why do they keep pushing the lie of adding tarrifs through WTO rules makes things cheaper, that sounds like economic arguments for Brexit, even if their trying to convince us 2 + 2 = 17

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