FabSwingers.com forum: How long will a Johnson or Hunt term as PM last?

By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

I don't think either will be able to hold onto political control of their parliamentary party for more than two years.

Less than two years of holding control of parliament as a whole.

Fuck knows how long they can command respect from their own party members - is there any data of the background of Tory party members who joined recently Vs sustained members?

Either way, how long will the respective party leaders remain as PM?

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By *V-AliceTV/TS
over a year ago

Ayr

Ironically, not as long as May managed.

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By *lem-H-FandangoMan
over a year ago

salisbury

Depends on the quality of the alternative.

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By *abioMan
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

if johnson becomes pm end of july... and tries to force thru a no deal brexit... he will only last till november!

you can do the maths on the days......

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

They can change the name above No. 10. But it does not change any of the pieces on the board that doomed Mrs May.

A minority government formed by a party falling apart, reliant on the votes of Ulster extremists to stay in power.

it really is the last roll of the dice for the Conservative Party.

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By *abioMan
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

if he keeps doing interviews like the one he just did on ridge then not very long...

she took him to pieces on his comments about the lady held in iran, and he didn't have a clue what the liing wage was... you'd think he'd be briefed on simple things like this!

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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago

Grantham

"if he keeps doing interviews like the one he just did on ridge then not very long...

she took him to pieces on his comments about the lady held in iran, and he didn't have a clue what the liing wage was... you'd think he'd be briefed on simple things like this!"

As a typical "middle of the road" Conservative, I have no faith in Boris Johnson.

He's not a stupid man but believes far too much in his perceived ability to change things, rather than addressing the stark realities of the situations.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

I watched a clip of the interview with Sophie Ridge.

It's the same flawed politics we saw in the 2016 referendum.

Set out the position of a third party - the EU - that is unsupported any evidence whatsoever (the opposite, in fact) and build your own case on that (false) prospectus.

Johnson did that in 2016 and he is continuing to do it.

It relies on other people delivering something that is not in his control to deliver (in this case re-opening the agreement and rewriting it before October 31). More than that, it relies on other people doing a 180 degrees U-turn.

Fundamentally flawed.

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By *obletonMan
over a year ago

A Home Among The Woodland Creatures

I think that Boris - because it almost certainly will be Boris - will roll the dice on a general election in the hope that the country will still be in the warm fuzzy post-ejaculatory afterglow of a newly appointed PM and give him a chance.

He knows his promises are full of shit and will be found out very quicly once they come into contact with reality - he knows the parliamentary maths are, if anything, even worse for him than they were for May.

The only way the EU are ever going to listen to him is if he leads a united party with a workable majority - and the only way to acheive that is via a GE or a coup.

While I think a coup is possibly a little far to go even for Boris - I wouldn't put it past him put the final nail in the coffin of the Tory party by jumping ship to the Brexit Party at the last moment after calling the GE as he has no real loyalty to the party.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

It is difficult to predict. But as far as his party leadership is involved as long as he wants. Much like Corbyn, he will become irremovable, because Tory party members will keep him there.

What is likely to happen is that a general election will see a Corbyn v Johnson v Farage, LibDims will continue to be a back number.

So my only prediction is that we will have a situation where either Johnson or Farage get elected Prime Minister.

If the alternative is Corbyn then I can see a Tory / BREXIT coalition. With whoever got the most votes providing the prime minister.

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By *obletonMan
over a year ago

A Home Among The Woodland Creatures

"It is difficult to predict. But as far as his party leadership is involved as long as he wants. Much like Corbyn, he will become irremovable, because Tory party members will keep him there.

What is likely to happen is that a general election will see a Corbyn v Johnson v Farage, LibDims will continue to be a back number.

So my only prediction is that we will have a situation where either Johnson or Farage get elected Prime Minister.

If the alternative is Corbyn then I can see a Tory / BREXIT coalition. With whoever got the most votes providing the prime minister."

In the Tory party, their leaders are kept in place by the support of the parliamentary party - not the grass roots membership - and even before he's actually done anyting Boris only commands a slim majority even within his own party, about one quarty of the commons as a whole.

Lately the PCP have shown an increasing lack of patience with leaders who cannot come good on their promises - and as Boris' promises are Dead On Arrival his support within the party, and his caucus within parliament, has only one direction it can go.

So yeah - agreed on a a GE but for the reason that Boris categorically CANNOT rely on support from the Tory membership to keep him in place.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"if johnson becomes pm end of july... and tries to force thru a no deal brexit... he will only last till november!

you can do the maths on the days......"

I doubt he'll try to force through no deal immediately. Hell use the summer recess to try and get support.

If he does the maths is he either starts a Tory party rebellion or there's a change of a GE. I doubt labour will win the latter, but I also doubt the Tories will expand a majority.

More likely he'll push til the current deadline, then either try and get no deal, or force parliament to force him to try for an extension. Either of those scenarios, he knows he can wiggle around his base and pain himself as a Victor or victim.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"if he keeps doing interviews like the one he just did on ridge then not very long...

she took him to pieces on his comments about the lady held in iran, and he didn't have a clue what the liing wage was... you'd think he'd be briefed on simple things like this!

As a typical "middle of the road" Conservative, I have no faith in Boris Johnson.

He's not a stupid man but believes far too much in his perceived ability to change things, rather than addressing the stark realities of the situations. "

Small C conservative then?

And I agree, he talks and acts like he has the power of a tyrant or someone with mass support in parliament and the public.

It's funny, he wants large scale political, economic and social change, yet he is in the Tory party.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

If there's a General Election because Boris fails with his no deal / leave by 31st October then I may go against everything I've said and vote Labour as a protest vote

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"if he keeps doing interviews like the one he just did on ridge then not very long...

she took him to pieces on his comments about the lady held in iran, and he didn't have a clue what the liing wage was... you'd think he'd be briefed on simple things like this!"

The problem with the living wage is it’s not !

If I do take you’re point I do not think he will make a good pm but out if the 2 of them he might be the best choice until someone else ousts him.

But things would be no better under labour either because politics is broken and camaroon broke it.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"If there's a General Election because Boris fails with his no deal / leave by 31st October then I may go against everything I've said and vote Labour as a protest vote

"
Then the country will be well and truly fucked if you vote corbyn in.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"If there's a General Election because Boris fails with his no deal / leave by 31st October then I may go against everything I've said and vote Labour as a protest vote

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By *oghunter33Woman
over a year ago

on the hill NordWest of

According to the Guardian there's even the possibility he might never arrive there:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/30/boris-johnson-might-never-enter-no-10-if-mps-withdraw-support

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"If there's a General Election because Boris fails with his no deal / leave by 31st October then I may go against everything I've said and vote Labour as a protest vote

I predict you won't be alone.

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By *nleashedCrakenMan
over a year ago

Widnes

[Removed by poster at 30/06/19 18:12:44]

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By *nleashedCrakenMan
over a year ago

Widnes

"If there's a General Election because Boris fails with his no deal / leave by 31st October then I may go against everything I've said and vote Labour as a protest vote

While Labour continue to be ambiguous on BREXIT the choice for me is easy and it's LibDem. If Labour come down strongly in favour of Remain that would leave me with a bit of a dilemma.

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By *ony 2016Man
over a year ago

Huddersfield /derby cinemas

"If there's a General Election because Boris fails with his no deal / leave by 31st October then I may go against everything I've said and vote Labour as a protest vote

While Labour continue to be ambiguous on BREXIT the choice for me is easy and it's LibDem. If Labour come down strongly in favour of Remain that would leave me with a bit of a dilemma.

"
. Labour are the only Party who are actually , currently acknowledging and trying to overcome the FACT that the referendum result was 52/48 ,, all the other parties seem to be viewing the result as 100% leave 0% remain ,, or ,, 0% leave 100% remain

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By *nleashedCrakenMan
over a year ago

Widnes

"If there's a General Election because Boris fails with his no deal / leave by 31st October then I may go against everything I've said and vote Labour as a protest vote

While Labour continue to be ambiguous on BREXIT the choice for me is easy and it's LibDem. If Labour come down strongly in favour of Remain that would leave me with a bit of a dilemma.

. Labour are the only Party who are actually , currently acknowledging and trying to overcome the FACT that the referendum result was 52/48 ,, all the other parties seem to be viewing the result as 100% leave 0% remain ,, or ,, 0% leave 100% remain "

It's about leadership as opposed to popularism. There is no good BREXIT soft or hard. All forms of BREXIT leave us worse of in economical and geopolitical terms. Labour, as some have in areas like Bracknell, should be telling the people the truth about BREXIT not pandering to the false narrative of British or English exceptionalism just to try, but then fail, to gain a few extra votes.

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By *abioMan
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

The way it is at the moment is that if Johnson tried to force thru a no deal brexit.. and there was a general election... the tories would lose a lot of the seats they have in the south to the Lib Dem’s and would lose every seat they have in Scotland to the SNP...

Not good enough for any Johnson led government... and the price for giving labour power in a supply agreement may be the head of corbyn

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

I love the people who think Johnson is the person who will deliver no deal Brexit.

A Prime Minister with no mandate, defying the will of Parliament.

Nope, just cannot see that getting across the finishing line at all.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"I don't think either will be able to hold onto political control of their parliamentary party for more than two years.

Less than two years of holding control of parliament as a whole.

Fuck knows how long they can command respect from their own party members - is there any data of the background of Tory party members who joined recently Vs sustained members?

Either way, how long will the respective party leaders remain as PM? "
Anyone's guess we will see

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"I love the people who think Johnson is the person who will deliver no deal Brexit.

A Prime Minister with no mandate, defying the will of Parliament.

Nope, just cannot see that getting across the finishing line at all.

"
Depends how good a polition he is

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By *bandjam91Couple
over a year ago

London

"I love the people who think Johnson is the person who will deliver no deal Brexit.

A Prime Minister with no mandate, defying the will of Parliament.

Nope, just cannot see that getting across the finishing line at all.

Depends how good a polition he is"

We can judge that already. Even if he wins the leadership vote he won't last the rest of the year.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"I love the people who think Johnson is the person who will deliver no deal Brexit.

A Prime Minister with no mandate, defying the will of Parliament.

Nope, just cannot see that getting across the finishing line at all.

Depends how good a polition he is

We can judge that already. Even if he wins the leadership vote he won't last the rest of the year."
You must be a phycic as I do not know who will be PM yet nobody does

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By *bandjam91Couple
over a year ago

London

"I love the people who think Johnson is the person who will deliver no deal Brexit.

A Prime Minister with no mandate, defying the will of Parliament.

Nope, just cannot see that getting across the finishing line at all.

Depends how good a polition he is

We can judge that already. Even if he wins the leadership vote he won't last the rest of the year.You must be a phycic as I do not know who will be PM yet nobody does"

We can judge how good a politician he is. Try harder.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"I love the people who think Johnson is the person who will deliver no deal Brexit.

A Prime Minister with no mandate, defying the will of Parliament.

Nope, just cannot see that getting across the finishing line at all.

Depends how good a polition he is

We can judge that already. Even if he wins the leadership vote he won't last the rest of the year.You must be a phycic as I do not know who will be PM yet nobody does

We can judge how good a politician he is. Try harder."
What I read here most people do not no what polititions do,they think it is about personality I reckon

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By *bandjam91Couple
over a year ago

London

"I love the people who think Johnson is the person who will deliver no deal Brexit.

A Prime Minister with no mandate, defying the will of Parliament.

Nope, just cannot see that getting across the finishing line at all.

Depends how good a polition he is

We can judge that already. Even if he wins the leadership vote he won't last the rest of the year.You must be a phycic as I do not know who will be PM yet nobody does

We can judge how good a politician he is. Try harder.What I read here most people do not no what polititions do,they think it is about personality I reckon"

I reckon you have no idea what politititititititons do neiver

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By *nleashedCrakenMan
over a year ago

Widnes

"I love the people who think Johnson is the person who will deliver no deal Brexit.

A Prime Minister with no mandate, defying the will of Parliament.

Nope, just cannot see that getting across the finishing line at all.

Depends how good a polition he is

We can judge that already. Even if he wins the leadership vote he won't last the rest of the year.You must be a phycic as I do not know who will be PM yet nobody does"

The only way Johnson gets to stay PM after the Summer is to go back on his word. There is no way any PM, government or party will survive the mayhem of a 'no deal' BREXIT. Johnson maybe many things but he's not stupid and he knows this reality too. Unfortunately for many Leavers they simply don't believe in the reality of what a 'no deal' BREXIT is and are happy to believe what they want to hear. Johnson, like he did in the referendum, is telling them what they want to hear and they'll vote for that but he simply won't deliver.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

A Hunt term will not commence.

He just told the truth on the Andrew Marr show. Nobody likes the truth. Look at Rory Stewart

AM: If that happens, we’re talking again about a no deal, there

was quite a moment in one of the hustings where you were

talking about going to a company in Kidderminster with 350

employees, doing very, very well in European markets and you

talked about the devastating effect that 10% tariffs would have on

that company. Now if you go through no deal every person in that

company will lose their jobs. You were, as you famous said again

and again and again an entrepreneur. You’ve built up a business.

Lots and lots of people who have built up their businesses around

the country, including the guy behind that business, will lose their

companies if you take us through no deal. Are you really prepared

to do that? Are you prepared to look those people in the eye and

say, you’ve got to lose your job because I’m going for no deal?

JH: I would do so –

AM: Really?

JH: - but I would do it with a heavy heart because, precisely

because of the risks. But you know if you choose someone who

has got a better chance of negotiating a deal then you’re not

going to have to face that decision.

AM: How would you feel if your company was in that position? If

you’d built up your company and a politician came along and said,

I’m sorry, I’m going to destroy your company because I’ve got an

ideological reason why I have to do that?

JH: Well what I would say to the people in that company

AM: You’d be furious.

JH: What I would say to the people in that company is that you

know I go around the world as Foreign Secretary and I find that

people have a whole lot more respect for us than we sometimes

have for ourselves and the heart of that respect is that we are one

of the oldest and greatest democracies in the world. And we are a

country where politician do what the people tell them to do. So if

in order to do what the people tell us to do we have to leave

without a deal, I would do that, but I would find support for those

companies to help them weather the storms. As a businessman I

know that’s not going to be easy, but I will be there for them. But

in the end if we don’t do what the people tell us to do we’re not a

democracy and I don’t think even those businesses would want

me to ignore what people have told us to do.

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By *nleashedCrakenMan
over a year ago

Widnes

"I love the people who think Johnson is the person who will deliver no deal Brexit.

A Prime Minister with no mandate, defying the will of Parliament.

Nope, just cannot see that getting across the finishing line at all.

Depends how good a polition he is

We can judge that already. Even if he wins the leadership vote he won't last the rest of the year.You must be a phycic as I do not know who will be PM yet nobody does

We can judge how good a politician he is. Try harder.What I read here most people do not no what polititions do,they think it is about personality I reckon"

Well in Johnson's case it doesn't matter whether it's personality or policy, they're both wrong for the country.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Right on cue, some nice stage-managed pictures for the media of Carrie symonds trying on engagement rings.

"Sources close to the couple" - him or her, take your pick - say they want to marry ASAP.

Awww, ain't that sweet. You'd never guess he is trying to reinvent himself as the stable, loving partner for the Blue Rinse vote, would you?

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

20,000 police officers axed since 2010.

Now Johnson says he is going to reinstate them all.

Lol you could not make this up.

You probably could make up the £1.2 bin needed to pay for them.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I saw an interesting poll that was put out by Yougov yesterday, that they've been running for a while, which is Westminster voting intention which is showing that the Conservatives have gained some ground and are now 1& ahead of the Brexit party, whilst Labour are slipping further and further down the list.

Clearly Theresa May had become a massive liability and perhaps many voters are optimistic that her successor will deliver Brexit (given that most of us already know it's going to be Boris)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Especially for Boris to remain in power is simple- delay Brexit again, extend the leaving date.

It won’t be popular but he will still be in power.

Boris will do what is best for Boris.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

"I saw an interesting poll that was put out by Yougov yesterday, that they've been running for a while, which is Westminster voting intention which is showing that the Conservatives have gained some ground and are now 1& ahead of the Brexit party, whilst Labour are slipping further and further down the list.

Clearly Theresa May had become a massive liability and perhaps many voters are optimistic that her successor will deliver Brexit (given that most of us already know it's going to be Boris)"

It is very simplistic, I know, but divide the electorate into two camps - the 52 and the 48.

The Brexit Party and the Conservative Party are competing for the 52 and all the others are competing for the 48.

Except the Labour Party.

I don't know which way they are facing.

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

He'll want it to last as long as possible probably for the least effort, which could mean trying to wait until the next scheduled election to win it. If he sees his options for winning as high, he could try this autumn. Could be like a Theresa May repeat.

He could possibly last until spring but it's going to depend on how much he can hoodwink the party that they absolutely must have him in charge, or else it's failure.

He could try to hide behind the cover of any real or fabricated crisis, so it may depend on what comes along, in addition to the mess he creates.

Some swivel eyed types will be happy for anything, that largely has other people suffering, as long as the UK gets to leave the EU, as the hard right coup has brainwashed those with limited perspective

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"I don't think either will be able to hold onto political control of their parliamentary party for more than two years.

Less than two years of holding control of parliament as a whole.

Fuck knows how long they can command respect from their own party members - is there any data of the background of Tory party members who joined recently Vs sustained members?

Either way, how long will the respective party leaders remain as PM? "

I have put a bet on for october 31st, the day when no deal brexit is blocked.

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By *obletonMan
over a year ago

A Home Among The Woodland Creatures

I have put a bet on for october 31st, the day when no deal brexit is blocked."

at which point he'll declare an national emergency and appoint himself dictator

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I have put a bet on for october 31st, the day when no deal brexit is blocked.

at which point he'll declare an national emergency and appoint himself dictator"

Then the military will step in and we are all screwed.

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By *ittleAcornMan
over a year ago

visiting the beach

I don't think either of them will bother to measure up for new curtains.

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By *laytimenowMan
over a year ago

Essex

November 1st.

When they fail to deliver Brexit.

A GE will be called so we can finally leave this stupid referendum result behind & get back to dealing with fixing this broken country.

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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago

yumsville

"20,000 police officers axed since 2010.

Now Johnson says he is going to reinstate them all.

Lol you could not make this up.

You probably could make up the £1.2 bin needed to pay for them."

Not being argumentative with the figure more the terminology as I read a little around it a few years ago. It was slightly interesting but not really but people do quote the axed and jobs lost in reference to police numbers.

Whilst in comparison to 2010 there has been a 20,000 reduction in police numbers, there is explanation. They weren't fired, made redundant en-masse, squeezed out through restructuring or though cost cutting exercises in departments. It was the result of several things like natural retirement, retirement on medical grounds, people leaving the force for other employment. Recruits joining realising it was not the career for them and leaving. Dismissals were actually higher in 2008/9 and police numbers was still increasing.

To say they were police officers were axed is not correct, it is just recruitment was paired back. Apparently since 2015 budgets have been protected in real terms.

Google link is: "Police officers aren't getting younger every year, and there's a debate"

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"November 1st.

When they fail to deliver Brexit.

A GE will be called so we can finally leave this stupid referendum result behind & get back to dealing with fixing this broken country."

I'd really laugh after all this Brexit no deal cock waving if a vote of confidence was triggered the day Boris takes power and losses it

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

There will be a General Election

In September .

Get to the bookies & get your money on .

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"20,000 police officers axed since 2010.

Now Johnson says he is going to reinstate them all.

Lol you could not make this up.

You probably could make up the £1.2 bin needed to pay for them.

To say they were police officers were axed is not correct, it is just recruitment was paired back. Apparently since 2015 budgets have been protected in real terms.

Google link is: "Police officers aren't getting younger every year, and there's a debate""

That all makes sense. Which then suggests the next question... Where are we going to find them all? There's not a ready supply. That's the trouble with short term ism.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"20,000 police officers axed since 2010.

Now Johnson says he is going to reinstate them all.

Lol you could not make this up.

You probably could make up the £1.2 bin needed to pay for them.

To say they were police officers were axed is not correct, it is just recruitment was paired back. Apparently since 2015 budgets have been protected in real terms.

Google link is: "Police officers aren't getting younger every year, and there's a debate""

Do you work in spin?

Not replacing those who leave or retire over time is the same as cutting staff.

Why pretend otherwise?

It has the same outcome. An understaffed police force.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I cant help thinking if David Milliband stood for Labour leader, he'd be Prime Minister within 6 years..and no im not a labour (or any)supporter.

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