FabSwingers.com forum: Boris's no deal WTO promise

By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

I really can't wait to see Boris Johnson's push ahead with his no deal Brexit promises.

Either Boris Johnson is trying to bamboozle the public with jargon or he just doesn’t get the basics of how global trade works. Both are bad omens for the man who is likely to be our next prime minister and tasked with navigating a way through the Brexit mess.

“What we want to do (in a no-deal Brexit) is get a standstill in our current arrangements (with the EU), under GATT 24, or whatever it may be, until such time as we have negotiated the (free trade agreement with the EU),” Johnson claimed in Tuesday’s BBC debate.

His blase remarks have since been picked apart by numerous experts, including the governor of the Bank of England. Mark Carney told the BBC that, contrary to Johnson’s claims, a no-deal Brexit meant tariffs being slapped “automatically” on goods moving between the EU and UK.

It’s time Johnson took a lesson on how the World Trade Organisation, the international body which oversees global trade, actually works.

First up, there’s something called the “most favoured nation” rule, which is designed to ensure fair play in global trade. This means that if you give a concession to one WTO member country – for example a lower tariff on beef – you need to give it to all member countries. Unless, that is, you have a free trade agreement with that country.

So MFN rules mean we couldn’t crash out of the EU and still keep our favourable terms of trade with its 27 members. The only way to keep tariffs between us and the EU at zero would be to scrap tariffs with all 163 other WTO members – the US, China, Australia, etc. And even then the EU would not have to lower its tariffs with us.

Scrapping all our tariffs would also leave us with very little leverage in future trade talks with other countries after Brexit. Having already given potential trade partners tariff-free access to our market, there would be little incentive for them to open up theirs.

Johnson thinks we can get round this conundrum by invoking Article 24 of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), a treaty under the WTO. But this wouldn’t work because GATT 24 requires a proper “plan and schedule” to be in place for reaching a trade agreement within a “reasonable length of time”. That clearly won’t be possible if we’ve just crashed out of the EU in chaos.

What’s more, to get a GATT 24 waiver on MFN rules, both parties – not just the UK – need to notify the WTO that they want one. It looks highly unlikely that the EU would do that. Last December, as part of its no-deal preparations, the EU notified the 27 member states that in the event of a no-deal Brexit they would have to charge third-country tariff rates on UK exports. That could be ruinous for UK businesses – for example, 10% on cars would devastate our car industry. But new customs duties are something the EU is prepared for and has already accepted as a consequence of no deal – what Johnson thinks should happen is besides the point.

Carney cited the opinion of both the director-general of the WTO and UK trade secretary Liam Fox, Johnson’s erstwhile ally on the Vote Leave campaign, to rebut the Tory frontrunner’s claims.

Johnson’s GATT 24 wheeze would meet instant and fierce opposition. If we were to attempt to use it we would, on the first day of our independent membership of the WTO, be transgressing its most fundamental rule. This international knock-back, not to mention the border chaos and price hikes resulting from a no-deal Brexit, would be a painful lesson in the realities of “taking back control”."

Going to be interesting to see how all this pans out for him and or whoever end's up delivering a no deal Brexit.

It was only a few days ago that Boris was still blustering on about using GATT 24 "unilaterally" as if it was only the UK requiring to use it and no mention of the EU having to agree too along with a time frame of a delivery of a FTA.

How long will it all get dragged on for until the cold light of day facts are actually acknowledged.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Do you remember that series of Dallas that turned out not to have happened? It was a dream of Bobby's.

It's beginning to feel that after three years of Brekshit.

Back in 2016 politicians were making claims that were either false or impossible to deliver.

Three years later and they are still at it.

It's shocking stuff.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

So basically sit around, do nothing, squabble amongst themselves and wait to be kicked out of the EU in November, then turn around and say it's Europe's fault. Yep, sounds like a conservative strategy.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

The EU is wise to it, though.

It has two key thoughts that influence decisions:

A) It would rather the UK was inside the EU than out of it

B) It does not want to be blamed for the cluster fuck that a no-deal exit would be.

While the greatest damage would be to the UK itself, the collateral damage on four or five countries can create political problems domestically.

So none want to be seen as having forced the UK out the door - it has to be an active and conscious choice by the UK.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

What I do find strange though is the GATT issue is so easy to look up that it requires both the UK & EU to agree to for it to be implemented but no one politically wants to acknowledge this fact.

The EU has said since the start that Free trade agreement negotiations will not start until a withdrawal deal has been agreed and signed off.

So if we fuck off without a deal and say piss off to the £39 billion then Trade negotiations cannot start for GATT to seamlessly take effect as soon as we leave.

So with so many leave voters on here banging the drum for a no deal do you think the EU will cave in and agree to GATT while we no deal and not pay the £39 billion? or do you not believe the facts that both sides have to agree and you think we can use GATT unilaterally?

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

Liam Fox has exposed the totally ignorant comments by Boris Johnson this morning.

It will be interesting to see how Brexiters will try to spin this Brexiter attacking the Brexiter who will be PM. Fox completely dismantled Boris Johnson’s argument and finally for the record stated that Article 24 was an irrelevance in this case, or as Fox said about what Jonson said “it simply isn’t true.”

The question then was Johnson wilfully misleading or is he just woefully ignorant? Neither attributes are a good look for a future PM.

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

"What I do find strange though is the GATT issue is so easy to look up that it requires both the UK & EU to agree to for it to be implemented but no one politically wants to acknowledge this fact.

The EU has said since the start that Free trade agreement negotiations will not start until a withdrawal deal has been agreed and signed off.

So if we fuck off without a deal and say piss off to the £39 billion then Trade negotiations cannot start for GATT to seamlessly take effect as soon as we leave.

Liz Truss was trying to champion Johnson’s pitch on Pienar on politics this morning. She was hopelessly out of her depth and her arguments were bordering on the absurd.

In essence her argument was that the EU could give us a better deal - all we have to do is be more intransigent, refuse to pay the settlement cash and the E.U. will buckle in the face of a more determined Prime Minister.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

Interesting, we'll have to wait and see lol

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Yes, the more we jump up and down and shout even louder, the more willing the EU will be to serve us all their lovely cake.

The most shocking thing is the number of people who are taken in by this nonsense.

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By *rMrsWestMidsCouple
over a year ago

Dudley

"The EU is wise to it, though.

It has two key thoughts that influence decisions:

A) It would rather the UK was inside the EU than out of it

B) It does not want to be blamed for the cluster fuck that a no-deal exit would be.

While the greatest damage would be to the UK itself, the collateral damage on four or five countries can create political problems domestically.

So none want to be seen as having forced the UK out the door - it has to be an active and conscious choice by the UK."

You missed the third key influence they would like to keep getting the money we pay in every year, probably the biggest influence of all, trust you to leave that one out!

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Which comes under A)

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By *rMrsWestMidsCouple
over a year ago

Dudley

"Which comes under A)"

I suppose it does but it underplays the fact they want us for the money we put in not for all the trouble we have caused!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Which comes under A)

I suppose it does but it underplays the fact they want us for the money we put in not for all the trouble we have caused!"

At what stage does the trouble being caused outweigh the money being put in! The EU is coming round to the French view that Brexit is having a destabilizing effect on the wider EU, Unless there is a significant move, election or 2nd referendum, don’t be surprised not to see any further extension!

The UK has burned a lot of bridges in Europe, there won’t be a lot of sympathy if the UK crashes and burns!

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By *rMrsWestMidsCouple
over a year ago

Dudley

"Which comes under A)

I suppose it does but it underplays the fact they want us for the money we put in not for all the trouble we have caused!

The UK has burned a lot of bridges in Europe, there won’t be a lot of sympathy if the UK crashes and burns! "

Lets hope the French get their way but I won't hold my breath!

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

I've thought for a while now that to get out of the EU it may take the EU kicking us out for it to happen

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

We certainly appear to be wasting the time that the extension created for the UK to resolve things.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I still can't see what reason anyone has for thinking the eu will buckle, even for the money.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"I still can't see what reason anyone has for thinking the eu will buckle, even for the money. "

The EU could conceivably buckle, but not for the reasons that brexiteers think, if they buckle, it will be due to pressure from inside the remaining 27, to kick to UK out, not from the brexiteers to give a good deal!

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"We certainly appear to be wasting the time that the extension created for the UK to resolve things."

It truly is fucking pathetic but to be honest if the EU won't budge and Parliament won't budge then there isn't much for our next glorious leader to do is there.

1: It's either take yet another extension

2: Let the clock run out and no deal exit

3: Revoke A50

4: Extension & General Election to let some other poor fucker in another party take over this toxic mess

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Run the clock down. Then involve an article 24 waiver for security reasons...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Invoke *

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Run the clock down. Then involve an article 24 waiver for security reasons...

Don't tell me you're a believer of that tripe

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By *nleashedCrakenMan
over a year ago

Widnes

"Run the clock down. Then involve an article 24 waiver for security reasons...

In order to invoke article 24 there has to be the bases of a trade deal between the parties involved and the agreement of both sides. The EU has made it absolutely clear it will not agree to an article 24 settlement unless EU citizens rights are agreed, the settlement fee is agreed and the Irish backstop agreed. Leaving with no deal means leaving with no deal, and that includes no article 24 deal too.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

For the record, I was in the wind up...

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

If the E.U. just loses patience and simply let’s the U.K. adrift on Oct 31st, it would be a gift for Brexshitter Politicians.

Their version of history would conclude that after three years of being treated unfairly by the E.U. they finally committed the ultimate humiliation on the UK by pushing them into economic calamity and disastrous recession by unilaterally evicting the U.K. from the E.U.

A dismal failure that can be blamed on others.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

AG Geoffrey Cox has also disputed Boris claims.

Let's get past wine spillage and start challenging his polices....

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By *nleashedCrakenMan
over a year ago

Widnes

"AG Geoffrey Cox has also disputed Boris claims.

Let's get past wine spillage and start challenging his polices...."

Here here!

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire

"AG Geoffrey Cox has also disputed Boris claims.

Let's get past wine spillage and start challenging his polices....

Here here!"

Agree but do you know what I don't think his policies matter to the likes of people who think their own party, the union of this country is a worthwhile price for Brexit..

There's a madness sweeping this country and its a mess that the lemmings seem to be dragging others with them..

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"If the E.U. just loses patience and simply let’s the U.K. adrift on Oct 31st, it would be a gift for Brexshitter Politicians.

A dismal failure that can be blamed on others."

Nah, if we end up with a no deal and it damages the country then everyone will know who to look at, all 17.4 million of them lol

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

At least it looks like Boris has admitted defeat and is now acknowledging his bluster about GATT etc requires the consent of the EU.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

"Liam Fox has exposed the totally ignorant comments by Boris Johnson this morning.

And paid the price

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By *ild_oatsMan
over a year ago

the land of saints & sinners

Simple solution to the Brexit mess that Cameron has lumbered the UK with....

Withdraw article 50. Then dissolve the act of union.

England and Wales can then negotiate their own withdrawal. Leaving Scotland and N.I. to remain in the EU solving the N.I. Border issue at the same time....

If you asked it’s probably what most of the pull the drawbridge up, little englanders would like... Sailing off in to a glorious future of Boris promises, Sunny uplands and wto tariffs...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Simple solution to the Brexit mess that Cameron has lumbered the UK with....

Withdraw article 50. Then dissolve the act of union.

England and Wales can then negotiate their own withdrawal. Leaving Scotland and N.I. to remain in the EU solving the N.I. Border issue at the same time....

If you asked it’s probably what most of the pull the drawbridge up, little englanders would like... Sailing off in to a glorious future of Boris promises, Sunny uplands and wto tariffs..."

The Roman's built Hadrian's wall to keep the Picts out. Seems like the descendants of the Picts will use it as a good EU boarder wall when the likes of myself become economic migrants seekers.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

ERG saying now it will vote down ANY agreement with EU, even if the backstop was removed.

Hellbent on the hardest possible exit.

Johnson is fucked.

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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago

Grantham

"ERG saying now it will vote down ANY agreement with EU, even if the backstop was removed.

Hellbent on the hardest possible exit.

Johnson is fucked.

Probably prompting more Conservatives to look seriously at crossing the floor and forcing an Autumn GE.

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By *illwill69uMan
over a year ago

moston

Anyone seen the document that is circulating on face-ache purporting to be a leaked Whitehall circular?

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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago

Grantham

"Anyone seen the document that is circulating on face-ache purporting to be a leaked Whitehall circular?"

I've seen it. Explosive stuff.

I'd get money on a 2019 General Election.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

"Official - Sensitive" briefing for incoming government and leaked to Sky News.

Summarises the disruption on the first day, the first fortnight and the first month.

Since Brexiteers now appear to accept Government advice in 2016 as Project Fact, presumably they will do the same with this material.

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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago

Grantham

October GE 9/4

November GE 7/2

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By *illwill69uMan
over a year ago

moston

""Official - Sensitive" briefing for incoming government and leaked to Sky News.

Summarises the disruption on the first day, the first fortnight and the first month.

Since Brexiteers now appear to accept Government advice in 2016 as Project Fact, presumably they will do the same with this material.

That is the one. Personally I think there is a high probability that it is a fake. It just looks wrong for a Whitehall document.

What do others think?

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

"Anyone seen the document that is circulating on face-ache purporting to be a leaked Whitehall circular?"

I’d like to think it is true but it looks to me like a made up slide presentation, crafted us on a home PC and “leaked.” It just does not look authoritative and is not in the style of any Govt document that I have ever seen.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

Not seen it and if it's surfaced on Facebook then it's most probably made up bullshit.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"Do you remember that series of Dallas that turned out not to have happened? It was a dream of Bobby's.

It's beginning to feel that after three years of Brekshit.

Back in 2016 politicians were making claims that were either false or impossible to deliver.

Three years later and they are still at it.

It's shocking stuff."
No dream it is real life

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

How does one find the leakes document? I can onky find references via google...

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"How does one find the leakes document? I can onky find references via google... "

Have a look at @samcoatessky

You can see the image of the “document”

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By *ony 2016Man
over a year ago

Huddersfield /derby cinemas

"How does one find the leakes document? I can onky find references via google...

Have a look at @samcoatessky

You can see the image of the “document”

"
. I wonder if the new education secretary had anything to do with this latest leak ?????

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Aha. Just the slide. I thought there was a while document.

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

"Aha. Just the slide. I thought there was a while document. "

I dont think so

From what I've read, I think thats it

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Aha. Just the slide. I thought there was a while document.

I dont think so

From what I've read, I think thats it

Odd to leak just one slide (of at least 7). Makes me cynical...

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

From Business Insider in April:

"The damage to the UK economy due to Brexit has cost £66 billion ($86 billion) so far, and left the United Kingdom teetering at the brink of a new recession, according to economic data published last week.

"An analysis by S&P Global Ratings analyst Boris Glass found that the decline of the pound, increase in inflation, erosion of household spending power, decline in house prices, and weak exports led to a 3% reduction in GDP. "That translates into average forgone economic activity of £6.6 billion (in 2016 prices) in each of the 10 quarters since the referendum," Glass said in a research note.

"The chart shows the results of Glass's calculations. He took real data (yellow line) and compared it to a statistical "doppelganger" economy (dotted line). The doppelganger consisted of a weighted basket of countries whose economies are comparable to the UK.

"So, for instance, the US is marked as 28.4% of the model, Hungary at 24.1%, Canada at 21.3%, and so on. The mixture produced a GDP growth trend that was almost identical to Britain's — until late 2016 when the Brexit effect kicked in.

"Fixed Investment declined in Britain after the Brexit vote but it did not in the doppelganger countries. S&P Global Ratings

"At that point, after the EU referendum, UK GDP slowed down while the doppelganger continued its growth trend.

"The lost £66 billion implies that the country is £1,000 poorer, per person, on average, than it would have been had the vote never taken place."

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