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Independence for Scotland and Wales

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

This is an absolutely hypothetical comment but from a purely financial standpoint it would actually be advantageous for England if the UK were to break up. If you take the scottish and welsh parliaments fiscal statements they state that:

Scotland has a 13.4 billion deficit (including its North Sea revenue) which is 7.9% of scottish gdp

Wales has a 14.7 billion deficit which is 23.9% of welsh gdp

These deficits between revenue and public spending are paid for by the uk government so between them thats a total of 28.1 billion add in the 9.1 billion Northern Ireland costs and we are up to 37.2 billion pounds per annum

Englands deficit is 36.2 Billion which is 1.8% of english gdp.

I know there are other issues to take into account but from a purely fiscal point of view by my reckoning the money saved by their being independent is enough to pay englands own defecit and have some left over. I actually would hate to see the UK devolve into separate countries but the financial implications do make interesting reading.

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By *V-AliceTV/TS
over a year ago

Ayr

To never be at risk of being ruled over by the likes of Johnson or Raab; and to live in an actual democracy - not an excuse for one - it would be worth the financial hit.

It's not all about money.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Anyone else find it peculiar how some in England are happy to ignore predictions of economic harm from severing the union with Europe, yet somehow think people in Wales and Scotland should heed predictions of economic harm from severing the union with the United Kingdom?

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By *V-AliceTV/TS
over a year ago

Ayr


"Anyone else find it peculiar how some in England are happy to ignore predictions of economic harm from severing the union with Europe, yet somehow think people in Wales and Scotland should heed predictions of economic harm from severing the union with the United Kingdom?"

Indeed.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Anyone else find it peculiar how some in England are happy to ignore predictions of economic harm from severing the union with Europe, yet somehow think people in Wales and Scotland should heed predictions of economic harm from severing the union with the United Kingdom?"

Ahh Well, that's different, init

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Wales and Scotland will be far better off financially on WTO than trading freely with the UK

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"Anyone else find it peculiar how some in England are happy to ignore predictions of economic harm from severing the union with Europe, yet somehow think people in Wales and Scotland should heed predictions of economic harm from severing the union with the United Kingdom?"

I dont think I mentioned the possible economic harm England may suffer, I simply made a hypothetical comment on the economic implications of severing the union. What I did forget to add however is that together with the deficit savings of 1 billion there would also be the interest savings on the 74.4 billion national debt not quite enough to pay the EU contribution but certainly enough to put a dent in it. As I said I would actually dislike to see the UK devolve, although I can understand the wishes of the various countries to self govern. I suppose there will be comparisons made with the mainly English desire to leave the EU after all Scotland and Wales overwhelmingly voted to remain but that wasnt the point of the thread it was simply an interesting(to me anyway) fiscal point.

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By *ethnmelvCouple
over a year ago

Cardiff

& of course Brexiteers haven’t factored in London declaring UDI and seperating from the rest of the UK - perhaps a moat where the M25 is could turn London into Singapore - at least Dyson wouldn’t have to move jobs too far abroad then!

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Constitutionally, the United Kingdom has become a patchwork quilt.

Over time, it's been pulled this way and that way, so much so that it's all a bit of a jumble now.

In the House of Lords, there has been debate about a new Act of Union.

I hope once Brexit is resolved this comes to fruition.

A proper debate about the future structure of the United Kingdom.

The current structure is unsustainable because of the tensions inherent in something so unbalanced.

The only sustainable solution I can see is a federal one, whereby there is equitable self-government for the four nations on domestic issues, and a coming together at a UK level for issues such as defence, international relations etc.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"& of course Brexiteers haven’t factored in London declaring UDI and seperating from the rest of the UK - perhaps a moat where the M25 is could turn London into Singapore - at least Dyson wouldn’t have to move jobs too far abroad then! "

Now that would be a problem, as London does fund a lot of the rest of Englands deficit if it wasnt for London's input the deficit would be an awful lot higher than the 36 billion and 1.8% of gdp

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By *ethnmelvCouple
over a year ago

Cardiff


"& of course Brexiteers haven’t factored in London declaring UDI and seperating from the rest of the UK - perhaps a moat where the M25 is could turn London into Singapore - at least Dyson wouldn’t have to move jobs too far abroad then!

Now that would be a problem, as London does fund a lot of the rest of Englands deficit if it wasnt for London's input the deficit would be an awful lot higher than the 36 billion and 1.8% of gdp"

& London voted Remain...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I can’t see Wales wanting independence, they are too small and besides, they voted leave anyway.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"Constitutionally, the United Kingdom has become a patchwork quilt.

Over time, it's been pulled this way and that way, so much so that it's all a bit of a jumble now.

In the House of Lords, there has been debate about a new Act of Union.

I hope once Brexit is resolved this comes to fruition.

A proper debate about the future structure of the United Kingdom.

The current structure is unsustainable because of the tensions inherent in something so unbalanced.

The only sustainable solution I can see is a federal one, whereby there is equitable self-government for the four nations on domestic issues, and a coming together at a UK level for issues such as defence, international relations etc.

"

That would be an ideal situation, but with self government comes financial independence and whilst Scotland with its North Sea revenues could possibly manage, unfortunately Wales and Northern Ireland dont have the revenue to be able to be financially independent, of course I suppose Wales could reopen its coal mines abd raise revenue that way but with the current climate change issues with fossil fuels that probably isnt the best of ideas. So, unfortunately a great idea but not financially viable.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"& of course Brexiteers haven’t factored in London declaring UDI and seperating from the rest of the UK - perhaps a moat where the M25 is could turn London into Singapore - at least Dyson wouldn’t have to move jobs too far abroad then!

Now that would be a problem, as London does fund a lot of the rest of Englands deficit if it wasnt for London's input the deficit would be an awful lot higher than the 36 billion and 1.8% of gdp

& London voted Remain..."

It did indeed as did Scotland and Wales, makes an interesting debate as to where does the idea of democracy(1 man 1 vote) fit into the modern scheme of different areas of the country having local devolved government doesnt it?

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By *ethnmelvCouple
over a year ago

Cardiff

In this theoretical future, (ignoring the irony of breaking up a union) then England would further break up - Cornwall, London. How would this play to ‘England’, which as a construct has been relatively fluid over the centuries. Maybe Northumbria might join with Scotland, Dover could be the same as Calais until lost in 1568 - become an EU outpost in Britain.

Or we could retain the Union and stop all this divisive nonsense?

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Political and monetary union holding people together in a common cause?

It's a crazy idea, it'll never catch on

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East


"

That would be an ideal situation, but with self government comes financial independence and whilst Scotland with its North Sea revenues could possibly manage, unfortunately Wales and Northern Ireland dont have the revenue to be able to be financially independent, of course I suppose Wales could reopen its coal mines abd raise revenue that way but with the current climate change issues with fossil fuels that probably isnt the best of ideas. So, unfortunately a great idea but not financially viable. "

Not necessarily so.

It's quite feasible to split taxation in two (just as Scotland has started to do).

A percentage of it going to the domestic spending kitty, and a percentage going to the national kitty.

The domestic rate is set locally; the national rate is set nationally.

The distribution of the national expenditure can include a element of support for areas that are weaker.

The UK equivalent of the European Regional Development Fund, for example, where resources are prioritised to areas whose GDP is 75 per cent or less than the EU average.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"

That would be an ideal situation, but with self government comes financial independence and whilst Scotland with its North Sea revenues could possibly manage, unfortunately Wales and Northern Ireland dont have the revenue to be able to be financially independent, of course I suppose Wales could reopen its coal mines abd raise revenue that way but with the current climate change issues with fossil fuels that probably isnt the best of ideas. So, unfortunately a great idea but not financially viable.

Not necessarily so.

It's quite feasible to split taxation in two (just as Scotland has started to do).

A percentage of it going to the domestic spending kitty, and a percentage going to the national kitty.

The domestic rate is set locally; the national rate is set nationally.

The distribution of the national expenditure can include a element of support for areas that are weaker.

The UK equivalent of the European Regional Development Fund, for example, where resources are prioritised to areas whose GDP is 75 per cent or less than the EU average.

"

So what you are saying is that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who are already in financial deficits of over 37 billion between them will have independent governments raising their own taxes of which they will pay a lesser proportion than they pay now to a united federation that will then somehow pay these deficits with less money coming in than previously, and how exactly will these deficits get paid?

The only way I can see is from the contributions England makes to the united federation? Which by this time will also be another independent government with its own fiscal deficit to pay.

You would be asking an independent government to fund other independent governments fiscal deficits...even the EU doesnt do that.

I somehow can't see that happening.

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By *ethnmelvCouple
over a year ago

Cardiff

If Brexit is good for England and damn the economic, social, political consequences, the why is this not the same for Scotland, Wales, NI, Cornwall, London, etc? The logical outcome of Brexit is the break up of the Union and then also of England.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"If Brexit is good for England and damn the economic, social, political consequences, the why is this not the same for Scotland, Wales, NI, Cornwall, London, etc? The logical outcome of Brexit is the break up of the Union and then also of England."

I dont recall saying I thought it was...politically I dont think it will make a lot of difference...we are already sidelined in Europe and pretty much have been since we joined...so in or out we will still be sidelined. Socially I think will be worse because we will lose a lot of protections, financially at this point I really dont know...I remember everyone saying how us not joining the euro would be financial suicide and how our economy would totally crash as soon as we voted leave...neither happened...I know people are saying this will all happen when we actually leave but I ran a business for 20 plus years if it was going to be as drastic as people say it would already be happening...things dont happen overnight. I suspect there will be a cost I just am not sure how drastic its going to be. I do know that it will force the economy to find other avenues of revenue rather than being the service based economy we are at the moment which in the long term can only be a good thing. Short term I simply dont know. As for it being the same for Scotland Northern Ireland and Wales if the union splits into independent countries why would it be? Different countries equal different economies in actual fact under the present financial entry qualifications I'm not certain that Northern Ireland and Wales would actually be eligible to join the EU. Remember this was all a hypothetical fiscal comment not a prediction of any kind.

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By *ethnmelvCouple
over a year ago

Cardiff


"If Brexit is good for England and damn the economic, social, political consequences, the why is this not the same for Scotland, Wales, NI, Cornwall, London, etc? The logical outcome of Brexit is the break up of the Union and then also of England.

I dont recall saying I thought it was...politically I dont think it will make a lot of difference...we are already sidelined in Europe and pretty much have been since we joined...so in or out we will still be sidelined. Socially I think will be worse because we will lose a lot of protections, financially at this point I really dont know...I remember everyone saying how us not joining the euro would be financial suicide and how our economy would totally crash as soon as we voted leave...neither happened...I know people are saying this will all happen when we actually leave but I ran a business for 20 plus years if it was going to be as drastic as people say it would already be happening...things dont happen overnight. I suspect there will be a cost I just am not sure how drastic its going to be. I do know that it will force the economy to find other avenues of revenue rather than being the service based economy we are at the moment which in the long term can only be a good thing. Short term I simply dont know. As for it being the same for Scotland Northern Ireland and Wales if the union splits into independent countries why would it be? Different countries equal different economies in actual fact under the present financial entry qualifications I'm not certain that Northern Ireland and Wales would actually be eligible to join the EU. Remember this was all a hypothetical fiscal comment not a prediction of any kind."

If England can argue Brexit and damn the consequences, then so can other countries go for the opposite. There should then be nothing stopping parts of England choosing to re join the EU, other than the threat of violence and force. England is not as homogenous as you’d like.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral


"This is an absolutely hypothetical comment but from a purely financial standpoint it would actually be advantageous for England if the UK were to break up. If you take the scottish and welsh parliaments fiscal statements they state that:

Scotland has a 13.4 billion deficit (including its North Sea revenue) which is 7.9% of scottish gdp

Wales has a 14.7 billion deficit which is 23.9% of welsh gdp

These deficits between revenue and public spending are paid for by the uk government so between them thats a total of 28.1 billion add in the 9.1 billion Northern Ireland costs and we are up to 37.2 billion pounds per annum

Englands deficit is 36.2 Billion which is 1.8% of english gdp.

I know there are other issues to take into account but from a purely fiscal point of view by my reckoning the money saved by their being independent is enough to pay englands own defecit and have some left over. I actually would hate to see the UK devolve into separate countries but the financial implications do make interesting reading."
Just a load of stats that can be twisted many ways

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral


"In this theoretical future, (ignoring the irony of breaking up a union) then England would further break up - Cornwall, London. How would this play to ‘England’, which as a construct has been relatively fluid over the centuries. Maybe Northumbria might join with Scotland, Dover could be the same as Calais until lost in 1568 - become an EU outpost in Britain.

Or we could retain the Union and stop all this divisive nonsense? "
Very true

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East


"If Brexit is good for England and damn the economic, social, political consequences, the why is this not the same for Scotland, Wales, NI, Cornwall, London, etc? The logical outcome of Brexit is the break up of the Union and then also of England.

I dont recall saying I thought it was...politically I dont think it will make a lot of difference...we are already sidelined in Europe and pretty much have been since we joined...so in or out we will still be sidelined. Socially I think will be worse because we will lose a lot of protections, financially at this point I really dont know...I remember everyone saying how us not joining the euro would be financial suicide and how our economy would totally crash as soon as we voted leave...neither happened...I know people are saying this will all happen when we actually leave but I ran a business for 20 plus years if it was going to be as drastic as people say it would already be happening...things dont happen overnight. I suspect there will be a cost I just am not sure how drastic its going to be. I do know that it will force the economy to find other avenues of revenue rather than being the service based economy we are at the moment which in the long term can only be a good thing. Short term I simply dont know. As for it being the same for Scotland Northern Ireland and Wales if the union splits into independent countries why would it be? Different countries equal different economies in actual fact under the present financial entry qualifications I'm not certain that Northern Ireland and Wales would actually be eligible to join the EU. Remember this was all a hypothetical fiscal comment not a prediction of any kind.

If England can argue Brexit and damn the consequences, then so can other countries go for the opposite. There should then be nothing stopping parts of England choosing to re join the EU, other than the threat of violence and force. England is not as homogenous as you’d like."

And there is nothing in EU law to prevent parts of the United Kingdom excluding themselves from the EU, only the inflexibility of the UK constitutional arrangements.

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By *ecky400TV/TS
over a year ago

/highlands

If scotland got independance. How are they going pay for a border. Will be same problem as ireland and much more costly.

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By *ky19Man
over a year ago

Plymouth OYO Hotel

When Scotland had their referendum I wanted them to remain. I was sad at the thought of them leaving us and thought surely we are better together.

It's interesting to be able to see the remain argument from the other side.

Now I am more clued up about world events (lacking much knowledge and understanding but far better than I was) I think I'd be happy for more independence all around.

On the other hand it seems that if Scotland gained independence they would then forge stronger links with the EU instead?! D'oh!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"On the other hand it seems that if Scotland gained independence they would then forge stronger links with the EU instead?! D'oh!"

The main reason Scotland voted to stay back then was because of the EU, which England ironically used as a bargaining chip. Scotland is just being consistent.

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By *teveuk77Man
over a year ago

uk


"On the other hand it seems that if Scotland gained independence they would then forge stronger links with the EU instead?! D'oh!

The main reason Scotland voted to stay back then was because of the EU, which England ironically used as a bargaining chip. Scotland is just being consistent."

The main reason Scotland voted to stay is because 55% wanted to remain part of the UK...

It wasn't England that used the EU as a bargaining chip. It was the No campaign.

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By *icklybitMan
over a year ago

Ayrshire

I disagree that EU membership was the main reason.

The pound and economic plans were the two main reasons, and were weak points in the independence campaign which were exploited by better together.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It wasn't England that used the EU as a bargaining chip. It was the No campaign."

Which was heavily back by English media, the BBC, the newspapers, "celebrities" who felt the need to chime in about how being in a union is better and how Scotland would lose its EU place which is very important as being in the EU is a good thing.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"In this theoretical future, (ignoring the irony of breaking up a union) then England would further break up - Cornwall, London. How would this play to ‘England’, which as a construct has been relatively fluid over the centuries. Maybe Northumbria might join with Scotland, Dover could be the same as Calais until lost in 1568 - become an EU outpost in Britain.

Or we could retain the Union and stop all this divisive nonsense? "

There was talk in the Shetlands and the Western isles of rejoining Norway in the last Scottish independence referendum. Not sure how serious that actually was.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

The Tory toff the Earl of Caithness punted the idea of the Shetland Islands leaving Scotland and rejoining the UK.

He was looking for a new home for the WMD fleet.

Not exactly a vote-winner in Shetland.

Their antipathy towards rule from London is matched only by their antipathy to rule from Edinburgh.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"This is an absolutely hypothetical comment but from a purely financial standpoint it would actually be advantageous for England if the UK were to break up. If you take the scottish and welsh parliaments fiscal statements they state that:

Scotland has a 13.4 billion deficit (including its North Sea revenue) which is 7.9% of scottish gdp

Wales has a 14.7 billion deficit which is 23.9% of welsh gdp

These deficits between revenue and public spending are paid for by the uk government so between them thats a total of 28.1 billion add in the 9.1 billion Northern Ireland costs and we are up to 37.2 billion pounds per annum

Englands deficit is 36.2 Billion which is 1.8% of english gdp.

I know there are other issues to take into account but from a purely fiscal point of view by my reckoning the money saved by their being independent is enough to pay englands own defecit and have some left over. I actually would hate to see the UK devolve into separate countries but the financial implications do make interesting reading."

Scotland has raised 900bn in tax revenue since 2001 and has recieved just under half of that back.

I think we'll be just fine on our own. Unionist myths/lies from 2014 are being proven wrong every day. It's only a matter of time.

I reckon Ireland will reunite and Scotland & Wales will become independent.

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