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WTO terms of trade

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By *nleashedCraken OP   Man
over a year ago

Widnes

What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

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By *losguygl3Man
over a year ago

Gloucester

Excellently stated. Factual. Clear as day. The Brexiteers will hate it obviously especially as the only arguments they will be able to bring against it are the usual 'RULE BRITANNIA!!!' bollox they always blindly scream whenever the illogical nature of Brexit is pointed out.

Top post

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I’d put it into simple terms,

Why would you want to leave a club where you get the best discounts on everything negotiated with other sellers and buyers? To move to a system where you don’t.

It’s true the old imperial mentality resounds highly in many hardened brexiteers.

Just compromise and be over and done with it.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 06/04/19 09:45:02]

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I’d put it into simple terms,

Why would you want to leave a club where you get the best discounts on everything negotiated with other sellers and buyers? To move to a system where you don’t.

It’s true the old imperial mentality resounds highly in many hardened brexiteers.

Just compromise and be over and done with it.

"

Why? For blue passports, for sovereignty,for take back control , for £350 million a week found NHS and a lot more lies and fantasies

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

What does the UK produce that the EU could not source from within its own countries? I suspect not a lot as it’s a big assed world out there and I doubt they would have to look very far!

So why would the UK want to give up these markets ?

Do people really think the EU need to UK more than we do them ?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"What does the UK produce that the EU could not source from within its own countries? I suspect not a lot as it’s a big assed world out there and I doubt they would have to look very far!

So why would the UK want to give up these markets ?

Do people really think the EU need to UK more than we do them ?

"

They think that the EU need us more than we need them because they've been reading the daily mail (or similar) for so long that they've lost all grip on reality.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"What does the UK produce that the EU could not source from within its own countries? I suspect not a lot as it’s a big assed world out there and I doubt they would have to look very far!

So why would the UK want to give up these markets ?

Do people really think the EU need to UK more than we do them ?

"

Let's take cars as an example:

The UK is the 2nd largest market for German cars - €26bn - its true because Nigel Farage said so.

Now look at the top 15 largest who buy German cars- 6 are in the EU (excluding Germany of course)

The 6 buy €70bn so that is €44bn more than the UK. Switzerland who have a FTA buys another €4bn! If we say that the other 21 countries buy €1bn that could be another €25bn so the single market is worth €69bn more than the UK - almost 3 times more! Rest my case!

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By *oan of DArcCouple
over a year ago

Glasgow


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no

"

Brilliant!

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By *avidnsa69Man
over a year ago

Essex & Bridgend


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

"

Yes, but, it's the evil Empire innit?

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

"

This is one side of the story . However to many others wto terms will mean cheaper food and clothes . A few tweaks to duties are hardly going to destroy us.

With reference to you points a and b.

In order to form an opinion it is not necessary to understand the logic of reason in full . You can simply listen to the opinions of various organisations and form you r own opinion based on their creditability. When I fly I do not need to know how the plane works, I just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained..

Why would anyone lie over wto terms? We are talking about a future event with many unknown factors. When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people.

1. Those who do not know.

2. Those who do not know that they do not know.

If we can leave the EU without a deal , offers of a deal will flow in very quickly afterwards. We have nothing to lose..

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

This is one side of the story . However to many others wto terms will mean cheaper food and clothes . A few tweaks to duties are hardly going to destroy us.

With reference to you points a and b.

In order to form an opinion it is not necessary to understand the logic of reason in full . You can simply listen to the opinions of various organisations and form you r own opinion based on their creditability. When I fly I do not need to know how the plane works, I just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained..

Why would anyone lie over wto terms? We are talking about a future event with many unknown factors. When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people.

1. Those who do not know.

2. Those who do not know that they do not know.

If we can leave the EU without a deal , offers of a deal will flow in very quickly afterwards. We have nothing to lose.."

And after Brexit butterflies will deliver cans of cider to every worker at the end of their shift.

The A team will be brought to life to continue to be on the run after escaping from a maximum security prison, for a crime they didn't commit.

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire

In the delusional fantasy that is la la land the ideology of the Brexiteer zealots is frightening..

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"In the delusional fantasy that is la la land the ideology of the Brexiteer zealots is frightening..

"

You’re just being negative. With a bit of positivity we will all get free mars bars and even gooseberries will drop in price. Farage said so.

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire


"In the delusional fantasy that is la la land the ideology of the Brexiteer zealots is frightening..

You’re just being negative. With a bit of positivity we will all get free mars bars and even gooseberries will drop in price. Farage said so."

Well if Boris can trump him by offering gooseberry flavoured Mars bars then fuck it I'm in..

Where do i sign up?

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By *avidnsa69Man
over a year ago

Essex & Bridgend


"

This is one side of the story . However to many others wto terms will mean cheaper food and clothes . A few tweaks to duties are hardly going to destroy us.

With reference to you points a and b.

In order to form an opinion it is not necessary to understand the logic of reason in full . You can simply listen to the opinions of various organisations and form you r own opinion based on their creditability. When I fly I do not need to know how the plane works, I just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained..

Why would anyone lie over wto terms? We are talking about a future event with many unknown factors. When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people.

1. Those who do not know.

2. Those who do not know that they do not know.

If we can leave the EU without a deal , offers of a deal will flow in very quickly afterwards. We have nothing to lose.."

We will not get as good a deal from the EU as we have now. That is a fact. None of the countries with which we have deals already via the EU will be able or willing to offer us a deal as good as those already in place (not least because countries like Japan have already agreed to that in their deals with the EU). Youre peddling a dangerous, ill informed and nonsensical myth. There's a reason that only a small number of MPs want a WTO Brexit, that's because everyone knows that the economic impact will be devastating but the few dont actually give a shit about it because their brextremism is more important to them than the impact on their constituents.

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By *oan of DArcCouple
over a year ago

Glasgow


"When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people.

1. Those who do not know.

2. Those who do not know that they do not know.

If we can leave the EU without a deal , offers of a deal will flow in very quickly afterwards. We have nothing to lose.."

So you fall into Type 1?

The fact is within the EU we know what it looks like, warts and all.

Leaving in some spurious hope of what might happen is like leaping out of an aeroplane which is flying on one engine after being encouraged to do so by a fellow passenger who's telling you you'll find a soft landing between the legs of a nubile virgin.

The gullible potentially have very much to lose.

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By *nleashedCraken OP   Man
over a year ago

Widnes


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

This is one side of the story . However to many others wto terms will mean cheaper food and clothes . A few tweaks to duties are hardly going to destroy us.

With reference to you points a and b.

In order to form an opinion it is not necessary to understand the logic of reason in full . You can simply listen to the opinions of various organisations and form you r own opinion based on their creditability. When I fly I do not need to know how the plane works, I just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained..

Why would anyone lie over wto terms? We are talking about a future event with many unknown factors. When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people.

1. Those who do not know.

2. Those who do not know that they do not know.

If we can leave the EU without a deal , offers of a deal will flow in very quickly afterwards. We have nothing to lose.."

I don't know why people would lie about WTO. Maybe, like you, they're not B) lying but are all A) Don't know.

However you're right, when you fly you don't need to know how the plane works, you just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained. But if the experts then tell you that the plane is not actually reliably built and the pilots have not been trained how to fly it properly in all conditions (as is currently the situation with Boeing's 737 max) you'd be a fool to want to fly in it even if there was no other choice.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

A few tweaks, that's all we need and everythings better, who would have known eh

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

Why would anyone lie over wto terms? We are talking about a future event with many unknown factors. When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people

However you're right, when you fly you don't need to know how the plane works, you just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained. But if the experts then tell you that the plane is not actually reliably built and the pilots have not been trained how to fly it properly in all conditions (as is currently the situation with Boeing's 737 max) you'd be a fool to want to fly in it even if there was no other choice.

"

Ah but the pilots were trained properly and performed 100% to the book but if it had not been for the numpties taking yet more control away from the trained pilots the plane would never have crashed

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Just read in a Reuters report today that the UK has put forward its schedule for services in the WTO! It was submitted on Wednesday last week and the 1st objection to the terms is from Taiwan! As we know there are several objections on the Goods schedule, but as the UK economy is a service economy it will be interesting to see how it pans out!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

"

Brilliant.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

"

Clear, concise, honest and true. An admirable post....well done you!

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

This is one side of the story . However to many others wto terms will mean cheaper food and clothes . A few tweaks to duties are hardly going to destroy us.

With reference to you points a and b.

In order to form an opinion it is not necessary to understand the logic of reason in full . You can simply listen to the opinions of various organisations and form you r own opinion based on their creditability. When I fly I do not need to know how the plane works, I just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained..

Why would anyone lie over wto terms? We are talking about a future event with many unknown factors. When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people.

1. Those who do not know.

2. Those who do not know that they do not know.

If we can leave the EU without a deal , offers of a deal will flow in very quickly afterwards. We have nothing to lose.."

Nothing to lose? God give me strength! Perhaps you should brush off your dunces cap as it seems self evident that you are already backed into a corner with your fingers in your ears! I cannot decide whether you are just malevolently trolling or a genuine idiot but I do feel that there is a consensus building about you and your asinine posts ( well over 52 percent of respondents seem to agree on that! )

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

What we have to remember is that if we crash out this week, or at some other time, the proposed zero tariffs being suggested are only for 12 months! This is to give the UK government sufficient time to negotiate trade deals with the rest of the world!

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

This is one side of the story . However to many others wto terms will mean cheaper food and clothes . A few tweaks to duties are hardly going to destroy us.

With reference to you points a and b.

In order to form an opinion it is not necessary to understand the logic of reason in full . You can simply listen to the opinions of various organisations and form you r own opinion based on their creditability. When I fly I do not need to know how the plane works, I just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained..

Why would anyone lie over wto terms? We are talking about a future event with many unknown factors. When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people.

1. Those who do not know.

2. Those who do not know that they do not know.

If we can leave the EU without a deal , offers of a deal will flow in very quickly afterwards. We have nothing to lose..

Nothing to lose? God give me strength! Perhaps you should brush off your dunces cap as it seems self evident that you are already backed into a corner with your fingers in your ears! I cannot decide whether you are just malevolently trolling or a genuine idiot but I do feel that there is a consensus building about you and your asinine posts ( well over 52 percent of respondents seem to agree on that! ) "

Hi. Thanks for the reply. It is much appreciated. Maybe read some articles on the benefits of leaving without a deal and you might not see the necessity to make comments which I assume are meant to be sarcastic.

For now I will be holding the view that it is best to leave without a deal.

For the avoidance of doubt I repeat that we purchase more from the EU than we do from them .

In these circumstances we hold the winning cards.

You appear to want to surrender before the battle has begun.

A significant number of people now are happy to leave on wto terms .

Once we do this offers of deals will flow in thick and fast.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

This is one side of the story . However to many others wto terms will mean cheaper food and clothes . A few tweaks to duties are hardly going to destroy us.

With reference to you points a and b.

In order to form an opinion it is not necessary to understand the logic of reason in full . You can simply listen to the opinions of various organisations and form you r own opinion based on their creditability. When I fly I do not need to know how the plane works, I just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained..

Why would anyone lie over wto terms? We are talking about a future event with many unknown factors. When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people.

1. Those who do not know.

2. Those who do not know that they do not know.

If we can leave the EU without a deal , offers of a deal will flow in very quickly afterwards. We have nothing to lose..

Nothing to lose? God give me strength! Perhaps you should brush off your dunces cap as it seems self evident that you are already backed into a corner with your fingers in your ears! I cannot decide whether you are just malevolently trolling or a genuine idiot but I do feel that there is a consensus building about you and your asinine posts ( well over 52 percent of respondents seem to agree on that! ) Hi. Thanks for the reply. It is much appreciated. Maybe read some articles on the benefits of leaving without a deal and you might not see the necessity to make comments which I assume are meant to be sarcastic.

For now I will be holding the view that it is best to leave without a deal.

For the avoidance of doubt I repeat that we purchase more from the EU than we do from them .

In these circumstances we hold the winning cards.

You appear to want to surrender before the battle has begun.

A significant number of people now are happy to leave on wto terms .

Once we do this offers of deals will flow in thick and fast. "

Where may one ask is the evidence for your claims of significant numbers happy to leave on Wto terms..?

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 08/04/19 08:19:36]

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

For the avoidance of doubt I repeat that we purchase more from the EU than we do from them.

"

WTF?

There are so many things wrong in your post, brilliant! But there’s not time to correct or make fun of all of them. So I’ll just pick these two.


"

A significant number of people now are happy to leave on wto terms . "

Yes a significant number of people have zero understanding of the impact of being reduced to leave on WTO terms.

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By *oan of DArcCouple
over a year ago

Glasgow


"

For the avoidance of doubt I repeat that we purchase more from the EU than we do from them .

"

..and nearly half of OUR goods/services are exported to the EU, so we have plenty to lose from this debacle

Reply privatelyReply in forumReply +quote
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"What “trading on WTO terms” really means...'

As EU members, we participate in over 750 international treaties.

Many relate to trade, enabling us to trade freely with the EU, the EEA,

and 40+ other countries.

Other treaties cover non-trade issues, from air worthiness certificates

to drivers licenses, UK and EU citizens’ rights, food safety,

environmental protections, workers rights, etc. On Brexit Day, when ever that may be, we leave the EU. That means we lose all the benefits of its treaties. Those treaties are gone in a flash, as if we’d fed them into a shredder. (That’s not the EU being vindictive, it’s just how the Article 50

process works.) Even IF we have a transition period, the treaties will already be gone, but we will be shielded from the immediate shock by the transition

arrangement.

Right now, we share in trade deals with 78 countries (22 more

pending). These deals cover 60.7% of all our goods imports, and 66.9% of our exports. Overnight, we will lose them all, wave goodbye to the painstaking gains of over forty years of trade negotiations.

In the absence of trade deals, we will be reduced to trading on

WTO terms. WTO is a complicated system of tariffs and quotas, plus a baseline set of rules designed to make trade a little less painful and a little

smoother than it otherwise would be.

WTO provides a baseline for trade, but it is the absolute minimum

that all rational countries seek to improve on. That's why everyone's trying to sign trade deals all the time. The whole point of trade deals is to improve on the basic terms offered by WTO.

In trade terms, WTO can be likened to fourth division football: it's

definitely a step up from a kick-around in the park using jerseys as goalposts, but it's by no means a high standard.

Let's talk about tariffs. WTO has an immensely complex schedule of tariffs, running into thousands of categories. Different products attract different tariffs. For example, under WTO, cars are subject to tariffs of

10%.

Tariffs are paid by importers, but of course they then turn around and pass those extra costs onto the consumer. Right now, UK manufacturers can sell cars to the EU tariff free. But under WTO, those cars will be subject to 10% tariffs, effectively making

UK-made cars 10% more expensive for EU consumers. But all the major car manufacturers have manufacturing facilities elsewhere, including other EU countries. So if we're reduced to trading on

WTO terms, they'll just shift production to the EU and avoid the 10%

tariffs.

WTO gives us the right to control the tariffs on our imports, even

reduce them to zero if we want to. But that's when the WTO most favoured nation rule kicks in. "Most favoured nation" is possibly the most misleading expression ever invented, because what it really means is that we are not allowed to favour one nation over another in our WTO dealings. So if for example if we are desperate for cabbages, we can set a tariff of 0% on them. That makes them cheaper, which stimulates demand

and encourages more producers to send us their cabbages. But we can't set a tariff of 0% for just one country. If we decide to drop the tariff on cabbages to 0%, that becomes our new tariff for every country in the world. So we get flooded with cabbages from the cheapest

producers on the planet. That's great if you love cabbages, but absolutely devastating if you're a UK cabbage farmer. You can't have it both ways. Either you shelter behind tariffs to protect domestic producers, or you reduce them or cut them to zero to encourage cheap imports - and destroy your local industry in the

process. The rules of WTO force that tradeoff for every product sector. But that’s only half the picture. We have no control over other countries’ import tariffs, i.e. the tariffs imposed on the things UK-based

producers export to them. If we’re trading with them on WTO terms, both the EU non-EU countries will impose whatever tariffs the WTO demands.

Overnight, our exports will be more expensive. That, combined with the fact that we will no longer share common standards with the

markets we export to (also covered by the treaties we will have lost) will make products manufactured in the UK significantly less competitive in

the global market.

For instance, why would any overseas consumer buy a UK-made car if they can get exactly the same car from the EU or elsewhere at a lower cost?

Short answer: they won't.

But what if the EU were to drop their tariff on cars to 0%? That would help our car producers, because our cars would no longer incur tariffs. However, "most favoured nation" would kick in. The EU would be forced to offer every country in the world 0% tariffs on cars. The mere notion is absurd. After all, the EU aren't going to leave their domestic market unprotected just to help the UK. It would be completely irrational to expect them to. So, in practice, trading on WTO terms will mean that everything we make in the UK will be more expensive for overseas consumers at a stroke. Some industries may be able to reduce their production costs to

offset the tariffs; most will collapse. And we will be faced with the impossible task of choosing product by product, industry by industry, which producers to protect by

maintaining our own tariffs, and which to throw to the wolves by cutting or eliminating our tariffs. If all of the above sounds grim, that's because it is. There are no countries in the world that trade exclusively on WTO terms with other nations. None whatsoever. Even North Korea has a couple of trade facilitation arrangements. We will have none. Nothing at all. No country has ever torn up all its international arrangements before (quite frankly, none have been crazy enough to). So we will be in a very lonely, exclusive club. So if somebody tells you the UK will be OK trading on WTO terms, they either:

A) Don't understand what that means

or

B) They are lying to you.

For example, Patrick Minford (of Economists for Brexit) is on record as stating that WTO would destroy the UK car industry, but that it would be a price worth paying for the freedom afforded by Brexit. In other words, Brexiters see manufacturers as collateral damage, to be swept aside in pursuit of Brexit.

Perhaps you're not so sanguine? Perhaps you would quite like the

UK to keep manufacturing things? In which case, you need to take heed of just how destructive, how

damaging, trading on WTO terms would be. Estimates for the likely damage range from 7%-10% of GDP. Even at the low end, that's worse

than the 2008 financial crash. But unlike the crash, we'd be deliberately, willingly inflicting the pain on ourselves. Incredible, but true. And the result would be the return of austerity, not for a few years,

but for decades or generations to come.

And Just because some may not understand all of this doesn’t mean that it isn’t true:

WTO: just say no!

This is one side of the story . However to many others wto terms will mean cheaper food and clothes . A few tweaks to duties are hardly going to destroy us.

With reference to you points a and b.

In order to form an opinion it is not necessary to understand the logic of reason in full . You can simply listen to the opinions of various organisations and form you r own opinion based on their creditability. When I fly I do not need to know how the plane works, I just need to know that it was built by a reliable manufacturer and the pilots are correctly trained..

Why would anyone lie over wto terms? We are talking about a future event with many unknown factors. When it comes to predicting the future there are two types of people.

1. Those who do not know.

2. Those who do not know that they do not know.

If we can leave the EU without a deal , offers of a deal will flow in very quickly afterwards. We have nothing to lose..

Nothing to lose? God give me strength! Perhaps you should brush off your dunces cap as it seems self evident that you are already backed into a corner with your fingers in your ears! I cannot decide whether you are just malevolently trolling or a genuine idiot but I do feel that there is a consensus building about you and your asinine posts ( well over 52 percent of respondents seem to agree on that! ) Hi. Thanks for the reply. It is much appreciated. Maybe read some articles on the benefits of leaving without a deal and you might not see the necessity to make comments which I assume are meant to be sarcastic.

For now I will be holding the view that it is best to leave without a deal.

For the avoidance of doubt I repeat that we purchase more from the EU than we do from them .

In these circumstances we hold the winning cards.

You appear to want to surrender before the battle has begun.

A significant number of people now are happy to leave on wto terms .

Once we do this offers of deals will flow in thick and fast. "

Hilarious! You answered the question perfectly with your talk of surrender and the battle just beginning! I imagine you believe the charge of the light brigade was a heroic victory too! Well done!

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire

Pat ducking the question again..

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East


"

For the avoidance of doubt I repeat that we purchase more from the EU than we do from them .

In these circumstances we hold the winning cards.

"

Which winning card is Mrs May playing in the Council of Ministers this week?

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By *nleashedCraken OP   Man
over a year ago

Widnes


"

For the avoidance of doubt I repeat that we purchase more from the EU than we do from them .

In these circumstances we hold the winning cards.

Which winning card is Mrs May playing in the Council of Ministers this week?

"

2 of Diamond?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

For now I will be holding the view that it is best to leave without a deal.

For the avoidance of doubt I repeat that we purchase more from the EU than we do from them .

In these circumstances we hold the winning cards.

"

This quote sums you up 100% Pat!

I. Rest. My. Fucking. Case

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

I'm afraid there are plenty Brextremists who would rather starve to death than ever admit it might not have been such a good idea.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I'm afraid there are plenty Brextremists who would rather starve to death than ever admit it might not have been such a good idea."

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

Is it not enough that you peddle the same extremist negativity on every political thread, but you trawl up a thread from 19 weeks ago to continue the onslaught of negativity and scaremongering

Why?

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

"We have now sunk to a depth at which the restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men"

- George Orwell

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

some people just cant be happy unless they are miserable and love to spread doom and gloom.Probably have sad lives so try to bring everyone down to their level.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East


"Is it not enough that you peddle the same extremist negativity on every political thread, but you trawl up a thread from 19 weeks ago to continue the onslaught of negativity and scaremongering

Why?"

Spoken like a religious preacher who demands obedience of their single universal truth.

You may believe the unicorns are waiting for you at the end of the rainbow. I don't.

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here


"Is it not enough that you peddle the same extremist negativity on every political thread, but you trawl up a thread from 19 weeks ago to continue the onslaught of negativity and scaremongering

Why?

Spoken like a religious preacher who demands obedience of their single universal truth.

You may believe the unicorns are waiting for you at the end of the rainbow. I don't."

Ok

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

It's all going to be fucking fantastic

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By *ittleAcornMan
over a year ago

visiting the beach


"It's all going to be fucking fantastic "

Hmmmm...

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By *evil_u_knowMan
over a year ago

city

I think the other fact is that a no-deal hurts the EU.

So now you will expect an EU business man, to pay 10% more for the Jag, and then be seen driving around in a car from a country that hurt his business.. when he could just get a bmw/merc/porsche and avoid the raised eyebrows as to why hes buying british after they hurt all of his friends trade.

Ireland is the UK's biggest trade partner. 16 billion a year profit made from Ireland buying in things from the UK.

900 million sterling in cars a year. But here is the rub, these are not all UK made cars. Ireland imports BMW, Merc, Porsche through the UK. Ireland does this as it allows someone in the UK to buy in slightly higher bulk, they save money, they make a profit sending it to Ireland and Ireland gets it slightly cheaper than buying direct from Germany etc.

Every single penny of this trade will be gone, Ireland is not going to import a BMW through the UK and have 10% stuck on the top. The price of the BMW will go up slightly and they will import direct from Germany.

Ireland imports a billion of clothing from the UK, again these are brands like Nike, Levi, Adidas. Clothes the UK buys in bulk and pass onto Ireland through outlets they own.

So who will buy all of this stuff? Stuff Ireland can just source somewhere else? I cant see Ireland swallowing 10% across the board on products.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

I believe a lot of distribution networks are currently configured to supply retailers in both UK and Ireland with goods coming into the UK.

How Brexit will fuck up that integrated distribution, with its import/export barriers where none currently exist, is beyond me.

But I do know the EU is investing in a new ferry service between France and Ireland that presumably offers new supply chain routes to Ireland that avoid any goods passing in and out of the single market en route.

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By *heBirminghamWeekendMan
over a year ago

here

industry is already reconfiguring distribution networks.

Nothing is impossible!

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By *ittleAcornMan
over a year ago

visiting the beach


"industry is already reconfiguring distribution networks.

Nothing is impossible!

"

Most likely, but as stated, they will be daft to loop that business through the UK if Brexit finally comes to pass.

I have no concept of the impact that will have on the economy. But imagine it will at least hit some jobs, and reduce revenue for the Exchequer.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

I wonder how the trucks that used to serve all retailers in the island of Ireland from UK mainland distribution centres will manage when the island is cut in two for trade purposes?

Will NI get its supplies from the south through some magic door on the border, or will the UK-based trucks not go any further south than Newry.

And if the EU provided emergency help to Ireland in terms of continuity of supplies, and NI also suffered on the British side, would Dublin offer to share with Belfast?

Don't know.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich


"I wonder how the trucks that used to serve all retailers in the island of Ireland from UK mainland distribution centres will manage when the island is cut in two for trade purposes?

Will NI get its supplies from the south through some magic door on the border, or will the UK-based trucks not go any further south than Newry.

And if the EU provided emergency help to Ireland in terms of continuity of supplies, and NI also suffered on the British side, would Dublin offer to share with Belfast?

Don't know."

Think of the reduction in pollution when all the irish trucks that travel through the uk to get to europe stop.Every cloud has a silver lining.

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