FabSwingers.com forum: Deadline extension

By *G Lana OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Gosport

Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

The new development is the April 12 deadline.

It's odds-on May will get thumped again next week.

Twice she has tried to command a majority of the Conservative Party and DUP, and twice she has been beaten up badly.

Next week will be no different.

"Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results"

- Albert Einstein.

This today from Guy Verhofstadt:

"Welcome that the European Council followed the advice of the European Parliament and has provided for an extension that will give the UK Parliament time to deliver a constructive cross-party majority for a positive future relationship."

Quite a clear message, Mrs May.

Instead of trying to command a majority of the Conservative Party and the DUP, you need to seek a majority of the House of Commons.

No coincidence this comes after Corbyn and Starmer met all the big cheeses in Brussels yesterday.

She is such a stubborn, inflexible character, however, that I just cannot see her trying to do anything other than trying to win over the Conservative Party.

Einstein was right.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"The new development is the April 12 deadline.

It's odds-on May will get thumped again next week.

Twice she has tried to command a majority of the Conservative Party and DUP, and twice she has been beaten up badly.

Next week will be no different.

"Insanity Is Doing the Same Thing Over and Over Again and Expecting Different Results"

- Albert Einstein.

This today from Guy Verhofstadt:

Quite a clear message, Mrs May.

Instead of trying to command a majority of the Conservative Party and the DUP, you need to seek a majority of the House of Commons.

No coincidence this comes after Corbyn and Starmer met all the big cheeses in Brussels yesterday.

She is such a stubborn, inflexible character, however, that I just cannot see her trying to do anything other than trying to win over the Conservative Party.

Einstein was right.

"
But didnt they also say there will be no re negotiation of the withdrawal treaty? so what is the point.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I wonder if it would require a revocation of A50, a change of Prime Minister and then some unspecified amount of time before invoking A50 again to effectively start negotiations from the beginning or would the EU say it's still only this deal or nothing.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"I wonder if it would require a revocation of A50, a change of Prime Minister and then some unspecified amount of time before invoking A50 again to effectively start negotiations from the beginning or would the EU say it's still only this deal or nothing. "
i have no idea but do you really think anyone would vote for revoking a50 ?its political suicide.

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

Ironic how the E.U. have (AGAIN) shown us how pragmatic and joined up political thinking will always defeat blinkered ideology.

The EU have now taken over the Brexit process and are in full control. They have done this because of the ineptitude of Theresa May and her Government. EU politicians have shown class, style and substance in the face of clueless bluff and bluster.

May has been given three weeks to come up with a solution. If her deal passes before then we get until May 22nd to sort out the fine print and rubber stamp everything. If she has no deal - we crash out.... But April 12 is 3 weeks away and this has tilted th balance of power away from Theresa May and into Parliament’s hands.

I think that Bercow will allow MV3 next week on the basis that it will now bring clarity to the House and if she (May) loses she will possibly resign or at least be forced to accept the Will of Parliament. That means (non whipped) indicative votes and open and honest debates with all options on the table.

Squeaky bum time.

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By *olly_chromaticTV/TS
over a year ago

Stockport

I think it would also require a new referendum or some other sort of mandate from the people, in order to assess whether the people truly want to leave. And this time with extreme legal penalties for anybody making obviously false claims or hate speech. And not just a rap on the knuckles for newspapers etc but something really swingeing like revocation of their licence to operate.

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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago

Barbados

"I wonder if it would require a revocation of A50, a change of Prime Minister and then some unspecified amount of time before invoking A50 again to effectively start negotiations from the beginning or would the EU say it's still only this deal or nothing. i have no idea but do you really think anyone would vote for revoking a50 ?its political suicide."

As opposed to the well oiled, high performing machine we have currently as our government and PM?

I think right at this moment, political suicide wouldn't really even be noticed.

-Matt

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

" i have no idea but do you really think anyone would vote for revoking a50 ?its political suicide."

You cannot revoke Article 50 in order to renegotiate your exit. The ECJ was clear about that.

Revocation needs to be unequivocal and unconditional.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

If only Spitting Image was still on the telly

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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago

yumsville

"Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added"

The inclusion of revocation of A50 will be enough of a change I think. Otherwise it is what May has been saying from the start.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

" i have no idea but do you really think anyone would vote for revoking a50 ?its political suicide.

You cannot revoke Article 50 in order to renegotiate your exit. The ECJ was clear about that.

Revocation needs to be unequivocal and unconditional.

That's why I said an unspecified amount of time before trying again. Could be 2 years, longer, who knows, could be a totally new government.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added

The inclusion of revocation of A50 will be enough of a change I think. Otherwise it is what May has been saying from the start. "
she will never include the revocation of a50.

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By *olly_chromaticTV/TS
over a year ago

Stockport

"I wonder if it would require a revocation of A50, a change of Prime Minister and then some unspecified amount of time before invoking A50 again to effectively start negotiations from the beginning or would the EU say it's still only this deal or nothing. i have no idea but do you really think anyone would vote for revoking a50 ?its political suicide."

Funnily enough, given the obvious huge public support for revoking A50, i suspect in many areas an MP voting to stay in the EU could end up being regarded as a heroic figure. Very few of the MPs want to vote for "no deal" because they understand the long term implications and that when the people start looking for someone to blame there will be no mercy. None of them want May's deal because they can see it is actually a brexit in name only that is really the biggest handover of sovereignty in the history of the UK. It would leave us forever bound to obey every trade regulation invented by the EU, with no say whatsoever in their content. It leaves England forever a weaker country.

Revoking A50 and staying in we keep our vote at the table, our veto on anything we don't like. We keep easy trading terms. We keep the presence of an enormous economic force that will arrange better world wide deals for us than we possibly can on our own. And a huge number of the people are starting to see that.

Voting to revoke A50 = long term being seen as a hero. Voting for no deal exit = long term being blamed by the very people that have asked for it.

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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago

yumsville

"Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added

The inclusion of revocation of A50 will be enough of a change I think. Otherwise it is what May has been saying from the start. she will never include the revocation of a50."

Aren't we talking about if Bercow thinks the changes are enough to allow MP's to vote again? Otherwise the previous no-deal stands.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

But didnt they also say there will be no re negotiation of the withdrawal treaty? so what is the point."

The UK's exit from the EU is being obstructed by about 70 or so MPs from the Conservative Party and the DUP.

Mrs May keeps going back to that group - not any other group - and keeps getting slapped down.

The ERG says it will not vote for her agreement "under any circumstances".

In effect, she is trying to manage three parties - the Conservative Party, the ERG and the DUP - to get behind her.

They keep refusing.

The Opposition Parties do not have any real problem with the backstop.

Their problem is with the kind of future relationship being envisaged.

They want something closer to what we already have, albeit as a non-member.

The SNP obviously want to remain, full stop.

The problem is May keeps tacking towards her own party and refuses to compromise with other parties whose votes are there for the taking.

If she did, and it commanded a majority of the House of the Commons (e.g. a customs union), I imagine all sorts of possibilities would open up with the EU.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added

The inclusion of revocation of A50 will be enough of a change I think. Otherwise it is what May has been saying from the start. she will never include the revocation of a50."

Do you want me to list what she's said she would or wouldn't do then did the opposite

I'm surprised you still believe her after all that's happened.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

"Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added

The inclusion of revocation of A50 will be enough of a change I think. Otherwise it is what May has been saying from the start. she will never include the revocation of a50.

Do you want me to list what she's said she would or wouldn't do then did the opposite

I'm surprised you still believe her after all that's happened. "
Yes i do believe her and i also believe her when she says she respects the will of the people.I honestly think she is even prepared for a no deal exit if she doesnt get her way.

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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago

yumsville

[Removed by poster at 22/03/19 11:01:12]

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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago

yumsville

"Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added

The inclusion of revocation of A50 will be enough of a change I think. Otherwise it is what May has been saying from the start. she will never include the revocation of a50.

Do you want me to list what she's said she would or wouldn't do then did the opposite

I'm surprised you still believe her after all that's happened. "

Are you deaf? Again, is it not down to Bercow and if he allows her to table it. What has come back from the EU is nothing that we do not already know. Deal, no deal or something else - a prolonged Brexit. Revocation is the only thing mentioned that is new to our ears.

If Bercow doesn't allow her to table it, are we not are we not out by default?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added

The inclusion of revocation of A50 will be enough of a change I think. Otherwise it is what May has been saying from the start. she will never include the revocation of a50.

Do you want me to list what she's said she would or wouldn't do then did the opposite

I'm surprised you still believe her after all that's happened.

Are you deaf? Again, it is not down to Bercow and if he allows her to table it. What has come back from the EU is nothing that we do not already know. Deal, no deal or something else - a prolonged Brexit. Revocation is the only thing mentioned that is new to our ears.

If Bercow doesn't allow her to table it, are we not are we not out by default?"

Probably as the deal is the exact same deal as the other 2 times so if he say ok go for another vote does anyone think it will be any different? All that I see is the fear factor song used yet again to try and get the deal through.

It was a big mistake to have had the referendum in the first place and the Blame lies at the feet of the obese who pushed for it because the general public does not see or understand all the many strands that are and were involved and just how interwoven we were into the E.U.

Nobody had a plan not even the remain side because they all thought that it would be a landslide to remain.

Leave just thought it would be as simple as just giving notice and leaving with no problems but then again the leave team never told thier supporters that there would have to be transition periods ect.

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

" i also believe her when she says she respects the will of the people.I honestly think she is even prepared for a no deal exit if she doesnt get her way."

Why does she find it so difficult, then, to respect the will of MPs, too?

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

"I wonder if it would require a revocation of A50, a change of Prime Minister and then some unspecified amount of time before invoking A50 again to effectively start negotiations from the beginning or would the EU say it's still only this deal or nothing. i have no idea but do you really think anyone would vote for revoking a50 ?its political suicide."

A true leader would be willing to push for what may seem unpopular, if itaverts catastrophe and doesn't restrict future options - cancelling Article 50 would do this. It would keep the UK in full control, able to start again should it ever get a clear goal and plan.No losses of freedom, increased payments and the economy stable.

Sign the petition

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By *oodmessMan
over a year ago

yumsville

"Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added

The inclusion of revocation of A50 will be enough of a change I think. Otherwise it is what May has been saying from the start. she will never include the revocation of a50.

Do you want me to list what she's said she would or wouldn't do then did the opposite

I'm surprised you still believe her after all that's happened. "

Apologies ... I was assuming it was Bercow that made the ruling on if the changes were enough, not May presenting them or picking out what the changes might be.

- I am thinking she is making recommendations now at least.

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

My guess is that she wont even bring it forward for a vote next week ,she will let them all carry on with their own little games and when they all get voted down or dont but are not binding she will at the last minute table her deal again.In the end the only options left are her deal or no deal.Why not? she knows its not got a chance at the moment when everyone still believes they can get what they want.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

"Is the shift in Brexit deadline offered by the EU going to count as a substantial change to May's deal and therefore allow MV3?

Personally I would say that it is not and Bercow should hold firm on his earlier interpretation unless other changes are added"

Her deal could be tabled with an amendment to have a referendum on the result if passed.

Her transition agreement and years of trade negotiations or remain.

That's substantially different.

The other option is to vote on having a vote, but that won't happen unless MV3 (oxymoron) could be won anyway...

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By *abioMan
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

"My guess is that she wont even bring it forward for a vote next week ,she will let them all carry on with their own little games and when they all get voted down or dont but are not binding she will at the last minute table her deal again.In the end the only options left are her deal or no deal.Why not? she knows its not got a chance at the moment when everyone still believes they can get what they want. "

the EU copy states at the EUCON that the UK will bring forward an MV3 this week to grant the extension, the UK copy doesn't.....

she cant bring it monday as the Grieve amendment debate for the way forward from the defeat of MV2 happens then... so it is likely to be tuesday

the interesting thing on monday is that cooper/letwin/boles amendment may come back up (remember last time it was defeated by 2.....)

if that happens and this time it passes...then the government will lose control and we basically have the "way forward/indicative votes" debate on wed unless the government bring it forward themselves......

the interesting thing will be if we can get any potential option to pass..... everything from no deal, to mays deal, to norway plus, to 2nd referendum, to revoking a50.......

(they were talking 7 options with votes)

if something go thru that may doesn't like thats when the fireworks start...

also the EU played this well because it takes mays potential excuse that it was the EU that forced the no deal, this puts this back squarely on her!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Concerning the 'deal'. My local MP - a career eurosceptic did not support it first time around, but had issued a statement where he explained why he voted for it on 12th March - out of concern of the prospect of no-brexit.

I'm not so sure he would vote in favour of it again given what happened yesterday, but I really don't know - all I know is that he won't be getting my vote ever again

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

the EU copy states at the EUCON that the UK will bring forward an MV3 this week to grant the extension, the UK copy doesn't.....

she cant bring it monday as the Grieve amendment debate for the way forward from the defeat of MV2 happens then... so it is likely to be tuesday

the interesting thing on monday is that cooper/letwin/boles amendment may come back up (remember last time it was defeated by 2.....)

the interesting thing will be if we can get any potential option to pass..... everything from no deal, to mays deal, to norway plus, to 2nd referendum, to revoking a50.......

(they were talking 7 options with votes)

if something go thru that may doesn't like thats when the fireworks start...

also the EU played this well because it takes mays potential excuse that it was the EU that forced the no deal, this puts this back squarely on her!"
It makes no odds what the eu say they cannot dictate what goes on in the uk parliament we will see but i dont think she will bring back mv3 next week.Will bercow let the cooper/letwin/boles amendment be heard again i thought there was a president or does that only apply to leaver?I thought a 2nd referendum lost last week and a50 will never happen not even the liberals are ok with that.

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By *abioMan
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

"It makes no odds what the eu say they cannot dictate what goes on in the uk parliament we will see but i dont think she will bring back mv3 next week.Will bercow let the cooper/letwin/boles amendment be heard again i thought there was a president or does that only apply to leaver?I thought a 2nd referendum lost last week and a50 will never happen not even the liberals are ok with that."

you are not paying attention....

the EU offers the UK a Brexit delay until 22 May - provided MPs approve deal next week

If there is no ratification by "end of March", UK has until 12 April to lay out options, which could include longer delay.....

the "end of march" is next week.....

unless she plans on running the clock down till 12th april by not holding another vote at all.....

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By *ostafunMan
over a year ago

near ipswich

you are not paying attention....

the EU offers the UK a Brexit delay until 22 May - provided MPs approve deal next week

If there is no ratification by "end of March", UK has until 12 April to lay out options, which could include longer delay.....

the "end of march" is next week.....

unless she plans on running the clock down till 12th april by not holding another vote at all.....

the amendments CAN be brought back again as they as substantive amendments to original motions... if speaker selects the motion for debate (which can be argued because again last time it only lost by 2...)"
yes i am paying attention thank you,just on the news that she may not bring back mv3 at all if there doesnt seem support for it.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

you are not paying attention....

the EU offers the UK a Brexit delay until 22 May - provided MPs approve deal next week

If there is no ratification by "end of March", UK has until 12 April to lay out options, which could include longer delay.....

the "end of march" is next week.....

unless she plans on running the clock down till 12th april by not holding another vote at all.....

the amendments CAN be brought back again as they as substantive amendments to original motions... if speaker selects the motion for debate (which can be argued because again last time it only lost by 2...)yes i am paying attention thank you,just on the news that she may not bring back mv3 at all if there doesnt seem support for it."

It's not necessary for her to. The EU will look at any credible pla, which is what Parliament will look to do if it takes control of the process.

The small number of DUP and Tory Brexiteers only have leverage within the Tory Party. They do not hold the balance of power without the whip in play.

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