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"Given that out of all of the ERG affiliated brexiteers, bojo is the most popular, yet his unpopularity is more than 200% greater than his popularity he'd make a risky gamble. To summate my thoughts, are the ERG playing a high risk, high gain strategy of call everyone's bluff at the same time and hope everything is so fragmented then can sneak their own in and call it parliamentary legitimacy. I cannot see any of their preferred candidates getting in over Theresa may, or someone younger from the centrist side of the party. Thoughts. Seems like the time for chess strategy is over in the Tory party and opposition parties." Whatever happens even if Theresa May wins tonight she won't be able to govern because she has lost the support of the DUP who she relies on for a majority. The only way the tories can get the DUP back on side is either with a new leader or by completely ditching the backstop from the EU withdrawal agreement. The ERG have already won in a way even if they lose the vote tonight because Theresa May has been forced to concede she won't fight the next general election campaign as leader. In return for votes in the confidence vote she's said she'll resign before the next general election. | |||
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"Given that out of all of the ERG affiliated brexiteers, bojo is the most popular, yet his unpopularity is more than 200% greater than his popularity he'd make a risky gamble. To summate my thoughts, are the ERG playing a high risk, high gain strategy of call everyone's bluff at the same time and hope everything is so fragmented then can sneak their own in and call it parliamentary legitimacy. I cannot see any of their preferred candidates getting in over Theresa may, or someone younger from the centrist side of the party. Thoughts. Seems like the time for chess strategy is over in the Tory party and opposition parties. Whatever happens even if Theresa May wins tonight she won't be able to govern because she has lost the support of the DUP who she relies on for a majority. The only way the tories can get the DUP back on side is either with a new leader or by completely ditching the backstop from the EU withdrawal agreement. The ERG have already won in a way even if they lose the vote tonight because Theresa May has been forced to concede she won't fight the next general election campaign as leader. In return for votes in the confidence vote she's said she'll resign before the next general election. " To address you last paragraph: Some remain candidates refused to rule out future bids earlier this year, Justine greening is one such person - popular in the party and amoung floating voters. Pragmatic and not dogmatic. The ERG could well have won a phyrric victory tonight by stopping Theresa's career ambitions in the future. They could be like pyrrhus of Epirus though, fighting and pushing g so much that they never consolidate anything. Of the prior paragraph: Never underestimate a PM's ability, Tory or not, to get some leverage over a locally limited party. Another bribe off for the DUP, maybe. Money gets a lot done. | |||
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"Quick question: if TM wins, does she have the right to basically push the ERG lot to side and tell them to either get their own party and stop backseat driving, or keep them there and remind them that she's survived and that she has the mandate to lead. Not a good strategy, but if this blows up, I suspect the ERG might not be welcome in the Tory party. " Without the ERG wing in the Conservative party that gives Corbyn and Labour a majority. | |||
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"Quick question: if TM wins, does she have the right to basically push the ERG lot to side and tell them to either get their own party and stop backseat driving, or keep them there and remind them that she's survived and that she has the mandate to lead. Not a good strategy, but if this blows up, I suspect the ERG might not be welcome in the Tory party. Without the ERG wing in the Conservative party that gives Corbyn and Labour a majority. " So have they overplayed their hand and if so what will become of the conservative party? | |||
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"Quick question: if TM wins, does she have the right to basically push the ERG lot to side and tell them to either get their own party and stop backseat driving, or keep them there and remind them that she's survived and that she has the mandate to lead. Not a good strategy, but if this blows up, I suspect the ERG might not be welcome in the Tory party. Without the ERG wing in the Conservative party that gives Corbyn and Labour a majority. So have they overplayed their hand and if so what will become of the conservative party? " Not overplayed their hand at all, the Conservative party will stay together and if the ERG lose the vote tonight then the DUP can finish Theresa May off because she has lost their support and can't govern without them. Theresa May can't change the Parliamentary arithmetic and she can't govern or pass legislation without the DUP. | |||
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"118 against. ERG. All mouth and no trousers." The ERG doesn't have 117 members. So a considerable larger amount of people in the Tory party are not happy with May's leadership including some outside of the ERG. | |||
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"118 against. ERG. All mouth and no trousers. The ERG doesn't have 117 members. So a considerable larger amount of people in the Tory party are not happy with May's leadership including some outside of the ERG. " In normal times I'd say with that result she'd have to go. But these aren't normal times. The reality is this vote has made a hard, no deal BREXIT even less likely than it was already. As for the DUP, once it becomes clear that May's deal is dead and the choice is either some sort of 'no deal' (which will also require a backstop) or no BREXIT (which doesn't require a backstop), with the possibility of a Corbyn Labour Government if this Government falls, they'll fall inline. | |||
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THE DUP are presently in a strong position, they can bring down the Government. But the chance of a Labour led Givernment is toxic to them,
But they will all be re-elected anyway, their individual MPs salaries are safe!
The NI voter votes according to computer and policy is an irrelevance!! | |||
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"I think that now that May cannot be moved for at least one year, todays vote was a considerable nail in the coffin for Brexit! There will be no deal, because there is no majority in Parliament for either of the Brexit options, Deal or hard Brexit! It’ll be fumbled and thrown back to the people as an other referendum! Deal, hard Brexit or remain! No one wants a hard Brexit, except for hard brexiteers, and they are in a minority! " Everything is very much in the air currently so it's difficult to predict. It's possible May's deal will never be put before Parliament. One thing I will predict is that if no deal has been agreed by 20-March-19 Article 50 will be either extended or withdrawn. If it's extended then expect a 3rd referendum. If it's withdrawn then it's no BREXIT for the foreseeable future. It's also a lot easier to withdraw Article 50 than it is to extend it. No BREXIT seems the most likely outcome right now. | |||
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"I think that now that May cannot be moved for at least one year, todays vote was a considerable nail in the coffin for Brexit! There will be no deal, because there is no majority in Parliament for either of the Brexit options, Deal or hard Brexit! It’ll be fumbled and thrown back to the people as an other referendum! Deal, hard Brexit or remain! No one wants a hard Brexit, except for hard brexiteers, and they are in a minority! Everything is very much in the air currently so it's difficult to predict. It's possible May's deal will never be put before Parliament. One thing I will predict is that if no deal has been agreed by 20-March-19 Article 50 will be either extended or withdrawn. If it's extended then expect a 3rd referendum. If it's withdrawn then it's no BREXIT for the foreseeable future. It's also a lot easier to withdraw Article 50 than it is to extend it. No BREXIT seems the most likely outcome right now. " I agree with most of what you are saying there, but I cannot see Article 50 being withdrawn without it going to a peoples vote first! There has to be some charade resembling the ‘democratic will of the people’ prior to withdrawing it! So if nothing is agreed by January 21st, it will be extended to give time to a new referendum! | |||
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"I think that now that May cannot be moved for at least one year, todays vote was a considerable nail in the coffin for Brexit! There will be no deal, because there is no majority in Parliament for either of the Brexit options, Deal or hard Brexit! It’ll be fumbled and thrown back to the people as an other referendum! Deal, hard Brexit or remain! No one wants a hard Brexit, except for hard brexiteers, and they are in a minority! Everything is very much in the air currently so it's difficult to predict. It's possible May's deal will never be put before Parliament. One thing I will predict is that if no deal has been agreed by 20-March-19 Article 50 will be either extended or withdrawn. If it's extended then expect a 3rd referendum. If it's withdrawn then it's no BREXIT for the foreseeable future. It's also a lot easier to withdraw Article 50 than it is to extend it. No BREXIT seems the most likely outcome right now. I agree with most of what you are saying there, but I cannot see Article 50 being withdrawn without it going to a peoples vote first! There has to be some charade resembling the ‘democratic will of the people’ prior to withdrawing it! So if nothing is agreed by January 21st, it will be extended to give time to a new referendum! " How is a democratic referendum a 'charade' of democracy? | |||
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"118 against. ERG. All mouth and no trousers. The ERG doesn't have 117 members. So a considerable larger amount of people in the Tory party are not happy with May's leadership including some outside of the ERG. In normal times I'd say with that result she'd have to go. But these aren't normal times. The reality is this vote has made a hard, no deal BREXIT even less likely than it was already. As for the DUP, once it becomes clear that May's deal is dead and the choice is either some sort of 'no deal' (which will also require a backstop) or no BREXIT (which doesn't require a backstop), with the possibility of a Corbyn Labour Government if this Government falls, they'll fall inline. " Agreed. The ERG took a gamble - it's failed, they really ought to prepare for a Machiavellian attitude to be taken towards them now in their party. The DUP will keep quiet for the most park, picking up when arrangement change is made. Their priority is, keep Northern Irish British, no Corbyn. Pretty sure they might fold at this point and support remain. | |||
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THE DUP are presently in a strong position, they can bring down the Government. But the chance of a Labour led Givernment is toxic to them,
But they will all be re-elected anyway, their individual MPs salaries are safe!
The NI voter votes according to computer and policy is an irrelevance!!"Disagree, the DUP are in a situation where they cannot deliver. They are being pulled between the EU and Britain. They wish to deliver brexit, but only under certain conditions, the EU will not give those conditions. So they will need to either support JRM's wing, TM's deal, or back remaining. Or throw their lot in with labour.... | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action "Doubt it'll go far, but I said this would result in a Machiavellian cull or at least and attempt but sections of the party and supporters | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action
Doubt it'll go far, but I said this would result in a Machiavellian cull or at least and attempt but sections of the party and supporters "the tory party don't select or deselect at central office .... it's all done at constituancy level and the civil war is raging in their grass roots ... heads will roll | |||
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"I think that now that May cannot be moved for at least one year, todays vote was a considerable nail in the coffin for Brexit! There will be no deal, because there is no majority in Parliament for either of the Brexit options, Deal or hard Brexit! It’ll be fumbled and thrown back to the people as an other referendum! Deal, hard Brexit or remain! No one wants a hard Brexit, except for hard brexiteers, and they are in a minority! Everything is very much in the air currently so it's difficult to predict. It's possible May's deal will never be put before Parliament. One thing I will predict is that if no deal has been agreed by 20-March-19 Article 50 will be either extended or withdrawn. If it's extended then expect a 3rd referendum. If it's withdrawn then it's no BREXIT for the foreseeable future. It's also a lot easier to withdraw Article 50 than it is to extend it. No BREXIT seems the most likely outcome right now. I agree with most of what you are saying there, but I cannot see Article 50 being withdrawn without it going to a peoples vote first! There has to be some charade resembling the ‘democratic will of the people’ prior to withdrawing it! So if nothing is agreed by January 21st, it will be extended to give time to a new referendum! How is a democratic referendum a 'charade' of democracy?" The previous contributor suggested that Article 50 could be withdrawn, I am saying that if it is withdrawn, there has to be a premise behind it! Parliament itself cannot do it unilaterally without being accused of overriding the will of the people, so there will have to be another referendum, and the same mistakes won’t be made by government the second time round, the options will even be phrased in such a way as to leave the electorate with little choice but to vite for remain! It will be the democratic will of the people, after they have been ushered to vote in a certain way!! Don’t get me wrong, I do believe that Brexit is the worst possible option for the UK, and that there should be another vote, held in the cold light of day when all the true facts are laid bare for the electorate to give a thought out decision! | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action
Doubt it'll go far, but I said this would result in a Machiavellian cull or at least and attempt but sections of the party and supporters
the tory party don't select or deselect at central office .... it's all done at constituancy level and the civil war is raging in their grass roots ... heads will roll"You're comparing the Conservative party against the Labour party-Momentum standards again. | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action
Doubt it'll go far, but I said this would result in a Machiavellian cull or at least and attempt but sections of the party and supporters
the tory party don't select or deselect at central office .... it's all done at constituancy level and the civil war is raging in their grass roots ... heads will roll
You're comparing the Conservative party against the Labour party-Momentum standards again. "stop being childish and say something grown up for once | |||
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THE DUP are presently in a strong position, they can bring down the Government. But the chance of a Labour led Givernment is toxic to them,
But they will all be re-elected anyway, their individual MPs salaries are safe!
The NI voter votes according to computer and policy is an irrelevance!!
Disagree, the DUP are in a situation where they cannot deliver.
They are being pulled between the EU and Britain. They wish to deliver brexit, but only under certain conditions, the EU will not give those conditions. So they will need to either support JRM's wing, TM's deal, or back remaining. Or throw their lot in with labour...."The DUP can never deliver, they only ever have one policy since there inception and that is “NO” NI is the unloved child of the UK, no one wants it, but they are stuck with it, and the NI unionists keep trying to prove their Britishness and loyalty to the crown, like there is no concept of Britishness, | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action
Doubt it'll go far, but I said this would result in a Machiavellian cull or at least and attempt but sections of the party and supporters
the tory party don't select or deselect at central office .... it's all done at constituancy level and the civil war is raging in their grass roots ... heads will roll
You're comparing the Conservative party against the Labour party-Momentum standards again.
stop being childish and say something grown up for once"Nothing childish about it, it's just stating facts. The fact is its the Labour party-Momentum wing who moves to deselect Labour MP's who don't support Corbyn. There is no evidence what so ever other than your incoherent ramblings to suggest the Conservative party would do the same against ERG members. | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action
Doubt it'll go far, but I said this would result in a Machiavellian cull or at least and attempt but sections of the party and supporters
the tory party don't select or deselect at central office .... it's all done at constituancy level and the civil war is raging in their grass roots ... heads will roll
You're comparing the Conservative party against the Labour party-Momentum standards again.
stop being childish and say something grown up for once
Nothing childish about it, it's just stating facts. The fact is its the Labour party-Momentum wing who moves to deselect Labour MP's who don't support Corbyn. There is no evidence what so ever other than your incoherent ramblings to suggest the Conservative party would do the same against ERG members. "grow up chap | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action
Doubt it'll go far, but I said this would result in a Machiavellian cull or at least and attempt but sections of the party and supporters
the tory party don't select or deselect at central office .... it's all done at constituancy level and the civil war is raging in their grass roots ... heads will roll
You're comparing the Conservative party against the Labour party-Momentum standards again.
stop being childish and say something grown up for once
Nothing childish about it, it's just stating facts. The fact is its the Labour party-Momentum wing who moves to deselect Labour MP's who don't support Corbyn. There is no evidence what so ever other than your incoherent ramblings to suggest the Conservative party would do the same against ERG members.
grow up chap" | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action "Any real evidence or are we supposed to take your word for it? The evidence is widely reported in the press about Momentum moving to deselect Labour MP's who don't support Corbyn. | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action "Again, any real evidence or links or are we just supposed to take your unreliable word for it? In contrast, It's been widely reported in the news media and the press that Momentum have moved to deselect Labour MP's who don't support Corbyn. | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action
Again, any real evidence or links or are we just supposed to take your unreliable word for it?
In contrast, It's been widely reported in the news media and the press that Momentum have moved to deselect Labour MP's who don't support Corbyn. "i couldn't give a fuck about labour ... i don't support labour, i don't vote labour .... yet you keep banging on about labour like a purile spoilt child ... now just grow up chap i will reiterate that there are confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action | |||
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"confirmed reports of tory party constituant activists pressing for deselection of rebels before the next election .... democracy in action
Doubt it'll go far, but I said this would result in a Machiavellian cull or at least and attempt but sections of the party and supporters
the tory party don't select or deselect at central office .... it's all done at constituancy level and the civil war is raging in their grass roots ... heads will roll
You're comparing the Conservative party against the Labour party-Momentum standards again.
stop being childish and say something grown up for once
Nothing childish about it, it's just stating facts. The fact is its the Labour party-Momentum wing who moves to deselect Labour MP's who don't support Corbyn. There is no evidence what so ever other than your incoherent ramblings to suggest the Conservative party would do the same against ERG members. "I wouldn't be too sure about that. However there is one thing a lot of ERG have going for them, they are generally considered to be pretty good constituency MPs. BoJo could be vulnerable in Uxbridge however. | |||
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