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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th....." so which one would you go with Fabio if you had to choose ? | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... so which one would you go with Fabio if you had to choose ?" best of a bad bunch was always the norway option... but that doesn't solve the "freedom of movement" thing that a lot of brexiteers want to stop..... | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... so which one would you go with Fabio if you had to choose ? best of a bad bunch was always the norway option... but that doesn't solve the "freedom of movement" thing that a lot of brexiteers want to stop..... " so not Mays deal then ? | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... so which one would you go with Fabio if you had to choose ? best of a bad bunch was always the norway option... but that doesn't solve the "freedom of movement" thing that a lot of brexiteers want to stop..... so not Mays deal then ?" not really.... I never got why people were so against freedom of EU movement and the rules that we had when all reports made it aware that EU migration is an net positive for the UK Economy.... norway option gets you out whilst keeping the single market and the customs union.... | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th....." You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... so which one would you go with Fabio if you had to choose ? best of a bad bunch was always the norway option... but that doesn't solve the "freedom of movement" thing that a lot of brexiteers want to stop..... so not Mays deal then ? not really.... I never got why people were so against freedom of EU movement and the rules that we had when all reports made it aware that EU migration is an net positive for the UK Economy.... norway option gets you out whilst keeping the single market and the customs union...." All reports don't say EU migration is a net positive. Independent bodies like Migrationwatch UK say it's either a drain or neutral on the economy. Even Lib Dem party leader Vince Cable said just after the EU referendum it was debatable whether Migration to the UK is a net positive and he thought in the long term it was probably neutral, neither a positive or a drain. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact." but then you like to quote patrick minford and the economists for free trade when it suits you...... so are we listening... or not at all? | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. but then you like to quote patrick minford and the economists for free trade when it suits you...... so are we listening... or not at all?" don’t you think most ppl arnt against migration just the amount of your not against free movement would you be happy for free movement from outside the eu aswell ? | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... so which one would you go with Fabio if you had to choose ? best of a bad bunch was always the norway option... but that doesn't solve the "freedom of movement" thing that a lot of brexiteers want to stop..... so not Mays deal then ? not really.... I never got why people were so against freedom of EU movement and the rules that we had when all reports made it aware that EU migration is an net positive for the UK Economy.... norway option gets you out whilst keeping the single market and the customs union.... All reports don't say EU migration is a net positive. Independent bodies like Migrationwatch UK say it's either a drain or neutral on the economy. Even Lib Dem party leader Vince Cable said just after the EU referendum it was debatable whether Migration to the UK is a net positive and he thought in the long term it was probably neutral, neither a positive or a drain. " 1) migrationwatchuk are NOT an independent body.... 2) the ONS (who again you like to quote when it suits you) did a study in this 3 months ago, and they concluded that EU Migration was a net positive and does not affect the chances in life that UK born people have ( that included education, the health service and the housing sectors.....) | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. but then you like to quote patrick minford and the economists for free trade when it suits you...... so are we listening... or not at all? don’t you think most ppl arnt against migration just the amount of your not against free movement would you be happy for free movement from outside the eu aswell ?" we already have rules with regards to Non-EU migration and those rules are not being changed whether we are in the EU or not..... EU freedom of movement goes both ways... (how do you think people came up with "auf weidersehn pet" for example... it was uk builders going out on mass to germany when they had their housing boom taking advantage of the same freedom of movement rules) best part of 2-3 million brits of taken advantage of that to go the other way..... | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... so which one would you go with Fabio if you had to choose ? best of a bad bunch was always the norway option... but that doesn't solve the "freedom of movement" thing that a lot of brexiteers want to stop..... " Brexit was fuelled by xenophobia for a great many. They couldnt care less about the economy just as long as there were less'foreigners' | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. but then you like to quote patrick minford and the economists for free trade when it suits you...... so are we listening... or not at all? don’t you think most ppl arnt against migration just the amount of your not against free movement would you be happy for free movement from outside the eu aswell ?" At this moment in time we can control free movement from both the EU and the rest of the world! EU rules on freedom of movement is only for 90 days - tourism mainly. Over 90 days you have to have: 1. Sufficient income / capital not to be a burden on the host state 2. Comprehensive medical cover as not to be a burden on the host state 3. Not a security risk These measures have been in force since 2004 - the fact that UK government's didn't apply them is not the EU 's fault but the UK 's fault! Migration from the rest of the world has always been controlled by the Home Office! Again ask the question why did we let so many in? Also there has always been more from the rest of the world than from the EU! | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact." Fabio: "the government have done some economic analysis predicts..." Centy: "You're talking as if these figures are facts." What is it Centy that causes you to have such extreme cognitive dissonance? -Matt | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact." Yet duffers like Davis can't offer a vision of anything which looks like economic growth. Why? Because there are no data which can even begin to support that argument. Even your hero Mogg told us that the economy would take a hit. When we leave, the economy will take a hit. We dont need economists to tell us what's obvious to even that twat Mogg | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. but then you like to quote patrick minford and the economists for free trade when it suits you...... so are we listening... or not at all? don’t you think most ppl arnt against migration just the amount of your not against free movement would you be happy for free movement from outside the eu aswell ?" Yes, that would be awesome! I'm assuming you mean that it would be 'freedom of movement' in the same way as the EU, in that people have to be able to prove they can support themselves and not be a burden to the host country? And that is is accompanied by freedom of trade etc? -Matt | |||
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" Migration from the rest of the world has always been controlled by the Home Office! Again ask the question why did we let so many in? Also there has always been more from the rest of the world than from the EU!" Indeed, and Theresa May was the one in charge of trying to bring those migration levels down over the past nearly-decade she was Home Sec. And despite having all the controls and abilities to do so was unable to bring migration from non-EU countries down to under her own targets. It might lead one to believe that in fact migration might be beneficial. -Matt | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. Fabio: "the government have done some economic analysis predicts..." Centy: "You're talking as if these figures are facts." What is it Centy that causes you to have such extreme cognitive dissonance? -Matt" Were these figures produced by the same people that said an immediate recession following a leave vote etc etc oh yes thats right it was the government,oh yes the dept that is run by a remain fan, come on guys do you really think that anyone with any common sense believes these FORECASTS has the treasury ever been accurate before ? As for a no deal senario our exports to the EU are IIRC just under 12% of GDP so according to this latest exercise we will be losing 60% of our exports to the EU and even thats assuming some imports arent replaced by home produced goods and companies dont sell more to non EU countries ,good grief give me strength. I would like to see their workings for these figures | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact." He's about as thick as they come, so not a good specimen to help explain anything more complex than some level 1 sums. We may as well get real and accept that the brexit options rubbish the future potential economic growth. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. but then you like to quote patrick minford and the economists for free trade when it suits you...... so are we listening... or not at all? don’t you think most ppl arnt against migration just the amount of your not against free movement would you be happy for free movement from outside the eu aswell ? Yes, that would be awesome! I'm assuming you mean that it would be 'freedom of movement' in the same way as the EU, in that people have to be able to prove they can support themselves and not be a burden to the host country? And that is is accompanied by freedom of trade etc? -Matt" well you’ve sorted the shortage in houseing out there then | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th....." I won’t be, and anyway as long as we are out of the EU, I don’t give a feck... | |||
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" -Matt well you’ve sorted the shortage in houseing out there then " the shortage in housing is more to do with the fact thatcher let people buy their own council housing and the councils never replaced that stock.... back in the day where there weren't so many foreigners here! 
it is also that more people are buying houses for rental income and second houses in rural areas as holiday homes...
EU residences living here actually have to rent privately.... | |||
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" -Matt well you’ve sorted the shortage in houseing out there then the shortage in housing is more to do with the fact thatcher let people buy their own council housing and the councils never replaced that stock.... back in the day where there weren't so many foreigners here!
it is also that more people are buying houses for rental income and second houses in rural areas as holiday homes...
EU residences living here actually have to rent privately...."And Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reversed that process of selling off council housing stock? Or did they actually accelerate it? | |||
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" Were these figures produced by the same people that said an immediate recession following a leave vote etc etc oh yes thats right it was the government,oh yes the dept that is run by a remain fan, come on guys do you really think that anyone with any common sense believes these FORECASTS has the treasury ever been accurate before ? As for a no deal senario our exports to the EU are IIRC just under 12% of GDP so according to this latest exercise we will be losing 60% of our exports to the EU and even thats assuming some imports arent replaced by home produced goods and companies dont sell more to non EU countries ,good grief give me strength. I would like to see their workings for these figures" nice spiel.... did you take much time towing the company line? there is one tiny.....tincy wincy...... little thing though the "report" is one that MP's themselves specially requested and mandated as part of an amendment made to the provision of the EU withdrawal bill.... you know... so they had the facts laid out in front of them for when the final vote came around!!! you know, so they had all the relevant facts and figures to made a decision over the different options that were being pitched at the time.......
super spin though...... 9/10!!!!  | |||
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" -Matt well you’ve sorted the shortage in houseing out there then the shortage in housing is more to do with the fact thatcher let people buy their own council housing and the councils never replaced that stock.... back in the day where there weren't so many foreigners here!
it is also that more people are buying houses for rental income and second houses in rural areas as holiday homes...
EU residences living here actually have to rent privately....
And Tony Blair and Gordon Brown reversed that process of selling off council housing stock? Or did they actually accelerate it? "i was just saying thats when the law was originally passed.... nothing else! you can turn it into a red/blue thing if you want, i'm merely sticking to factual information..... | |||
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"Funny isn't it how people who decry these figures as being nonsense are broadly the same people who predict that the EU will come crashing down and as soon as we leave - others will follow. No confirmation bias at all. PS - These figures do not even represent Theresa May's planned Brexit - they are based on Chequers." Which is why brexit has to happen to prove who is right and who is wrong. If it goes well then all will be forgiven - if it goes badly how many MP's are going to lose their job? | |||
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"Bank of England up next, with its analysis due out this afternoon" Oh great another lot who got their forecasts and predictions wrong in 2016. | |||
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" Were these figures produced by the same people that said an immediate recession following a leave vote etc etc oh yes thats right it was the government,oh yes the dept that is run by a remain fan, come on guys do you really think that anyone with any common sense believes these FORECASTS has the treasury ever been accurate before ? As for a no deal senario our exports to the EU are IIRC just under 12% of GDP so according to this latest exercise we will be losing 60% of our exports to the EU and even thats assuming some imports arent replaced by home produced goods and companies dont sell more to non EU countries ,good grief give me strength. I would like to see their workings for these figures nice spiel.... did you take much time towing the company line? there is one tiny.....tincy wincy...... little thing though the "report" is one that MP's themselves specially requested and mandated as part of an amendment made to the provision of the EU withdrawal bill.... you know... so they had the facts laid out in front of them for when the final vote came around!!! you know, so they had all the relevant facts and figures to made a decision over the different options that were being pitched at the time.......
super spin though...... 9/10!!!! "You're at it again calling them facts. These figures are NOT facts they're forecasts and predictions. Heard Jeremy Vine on BBC radio 2 earlier saying after the Treasury got it so wrong in 2016, you may as well wet your finger and stick it in the air rather than believe these latest figures. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. Fabio: "the government have done some economic analysis predicts..." Centy: "You're talking as if these figures are facts." What is it Centy that causes you to have such extreme cognitive dissonance? -Matt Were these figures produced by the same people that said an immediate recession following a leave vote etc etc oh yes thats right it was the government,oh yes the dept that is run by a remain fan, come on guys do you really think that anyone with any common sense believes these FORECASTS has the treasury ever been accurate before ? As for a no deal senario our exports to the EU are IIRC just under 12% of GDP so according to this latest exercise we will be losing 60% of our exports to the EU and even thats assuming some imports arent replaced by home produced goods and companies dont sell more to non EU countries ,good grief give me strength. I would like to see their workings for these figures" That kind of already proves the Treasury models are deeply flawed then as companies like Nissan have said publicly they intend to replace component parts from the EU with parts sourced domestically here in the uk instead after Brexit so UK produced Nissans will be made at least 85% of parts made and supplied here In the UK. It was also said today on the BBC radio 2 Jeremy Vine show that the Treasury models used to produce these figures don't take Into account trade over the Internet, they're outdated 20th century economic models which are deeply flawed (as we saw in 2016 when George Osborne's forecasts turned out to be bullshit). Boris Johnson called the Treasury "the heart of remain" No wonder the Treasury is trying to throw a veil of secrecy over the modelling and assumptions made to produce these figures. Peter Bone MP has also called these forecasts a return to Project Fear. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. Fabio: "the government have done some economic analysis predicts..." Centy: "You're talking as if these figures are facts." What is it Centy that causes you to have such extreme cognitive dissonance? -Matt Were these figures produced by the same people that said an immediate recession following a leave vote etc etc oh yes thats right it was the government,oh yes the dept that is run by a remain fan, come on guys do you really think that anyone with any common sense believes these FORECASTS has the treasury ever been accurate before ? As for a no deal senario our exports to the EU are IIRC just under 12% of GDP so according to this latest exercise we will be losing 60% of our exports to the EU and even thats assuming some imports arent replaced by home produced goods and companies dont sell more to non EU countries ,good grief give me strength. I would like to see their workings for these figures That kind of already proves the Treasury models are deeply flawed then as companies like Nissan have said publicly they intend to replace component parts from the EU with parts sourced domestically here in the uk instead after Brexit so UK produced Nissans will be made at least 85% of parts made and supplied here In the UK. It was also said today on the BBC radio 2 Jeremy Vine show that the Treasury models used to produce these figures don't take Into account trade over the Internet, they're outdated 20th century economic models which are deeply flawed (as we saw in 2016 when George Osborne's forecasts turned out to be bullshit). Boris Johnson called the Treasury "the heart of remain" No wonder the Treasury is trying to throw a veil of secrecy over the modelling and assumptions made to produce these figures. Peter Bone MP has also called these forecasts a return to Project Fear. " It still doesn't negate the tariffs imposed on vehicles. Also whilst you decry Project Fear as your are quite right that they guessed it would be worse than it is! However we have gone from TOP to BOTTOM of the G7 economies - FACT! SO now we are approaching leaving we will get the opportunity to see Project Fantasy - hard brexit. Not long to wait and then we will see. A lot of brexiteers were told utopia is just around the corner - we will see! | |||
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Have you seen the report on national security in the event of a No Deal?
From the Brexiteer department for exiting the EU.
That ought to be the final nail in the coffin of the extremists.
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... You're talking as if these figures are facts. As David Davis just said on the BBC News these figures are not facts, they are forecasts and predictions about the future. A prediction is not a fact. Fabio: "the government have done some economic analysis predicts..." Centy: "You're talking as if these figures are facts." What is it Centy that causes you to have such extreme cognitive dissonance? -Matt Were these figures produced by the same people that said an immediate recession following a leave vote etc etc oh yes thats right it was the government,oh yes the dept that is run by a remain fan, come on guys do you really think that anyone with any common sense believes these FORECASTS has the treasury ever been accurate before ? As for a no deal senario our exports to the EU are IIRC just under 12% of GDP so according to this latest exercise we will be losing 60% of our exports to the EU and even thats assuming some imports arent replaced by home produced goods and companies dont sell more to non EU countries ,good grief give me strength. I would like to see their workings for these figures" It's clear you havent actually read the document....or f you have, you didnt understand what it was saying | |||
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" Were these figures produced by the same people that said an immediate recession following a leave vote etc etc oh yes thats right it was the government,oh yes the dept that is run by a remain fan, come on guys do you really think that anyone with any common sense believes these FORECASTS has the treasury ever been accurate before ? As for a no deal senario our exports to the EU are IIRC just under 12% of GDP so according to this latest exercise we will be losing 60% of our exports to the EU and even thats assuming some imports arent replaced by home produced goods and companies dont sell more to non EU countries ,good grief give me strength. I would like to see their workings for these figures nice spiel.... did you take much time towing the company line? there is one tiny.....tincy wincy...... little thing though the "report" is one that MP's themselves specially requested and mandated as part of an amendment made to the provision of the EU withdrawal bill.... you know... so they had the facts laid out in front of them for when the final vote came around!!! you know, so they had all the relevant facts and figures to made a decision over the different options that were being pitched at the time.......
super spin though...... 9/10!!!! "You do know the difference between a FACT IE something that has happened of is a total certainty anda FORECAST IE something that MIGHT happen if everything that has been used to make tht forecast actually happens. NO ONE KNOWS what will happen when we leave regardless of which way we leave or whether they are leavers or remainers, every business/citizen on both sides of the channel will make a decision when it happens and while some have said what they might do when it happens they might do something different,you know like they do when asked how they will vote in elections or referendums. In my sector things could go any way depending on what deal or no deal happens when that becomes clear then folks will actually do something, of course we have plans but I bet none will actually be implemented as they stand | |||
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"Bank of England assessment of a no-deal exit: Unemployment: 7.5 % Inflation: 6% Interest rates: 5 % " Rain/EPA The Bank of England has warned for the first time that Britain could slide into recession in the aftermath of a vote to leave the EU in next month’s referendum. Thats what the bank of england said before the vote would happen after the vote, did it happen ? | |||
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" It's clear you havent actually read the document....or f you have, you didnt understand what it was saying" Just as good as reading a comic as read these forecasts, even those who produce thm admit they were wrong why would they be any better this time round? The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote. Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question. | |||
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"Bank of England assessment of a no-deal exit: Unemployment: 7.5 % Inflation: 6% Interest rates: 5 % " Seems legit.They won't let no deal happen so not worried. | |||
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"Consider it a risk assessment by professionals. Advice for those about to make decisions. The politicians. Those politicians basically can: - Transfer the risk - Tolerate the risk - Treat the risk - Terminate the risk Thing is, the risks affect 65 million people rather than the 650 who will decide. It is important they make their decisions with knowledge and evidence, rather than ideology. " 65 million and growing! Those plucky Iranians etc can't wait to get here and help out with our economy! Gor bless 'em.  | |||
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"Consider it a risk assessment by professionals. Advice for those about to make decisions. The politicians. Those politicians basically can: - Transfer the risk - Tolerate the risk - Treat the risk - Terminate the risk Thing is, the risks affect 65 million people rather than the 650 who will decide. It is important they make their decisions with knowledge and evidence, rather than ideology. 65 million and growing! Those plucky Iranians etc can't wait to get here and help out with our economy! Gor bless 'em. "It's the natural selection of illegal immigrants .Only the cleverest and strongest get through and replicate in our country. Darwin would approve . | |||
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" It's clear you havent actually read the document....or f you have, you didnt understand what it was saying Just as good as reading a comic as read these forecasts, even those who produce thm admit they were wrong why would they be any better this time round? The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote. Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question." Wasn't It the bank of England who admitted they had a "Michael Fish moment" when their ridiculous forecasts in 2016 never materialised following the leave vote. | |||
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" It's clear you havent actually read the document....or f you have, you didnt understand what it was saying Just as good as reading a comic as read these forecasts, even those who produce thm admit they were wrong why would they be any better this time round? The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote. Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question. Wasn't It the bank of England who admitted they had a "Michael Fish moment" when their ridiculous forecasts in 2016 never materialised following the leave vote. " Was around the GFC. | |||
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" Wasn't It the bank of England who admitted they had a "Michael Fish moment" when their ridiculous forecasts in 2016 never materialised following the leave vote. " You mean they predicted a 25% devaluation in the £ and it only turned out to be a 15% devaluation? | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... I won’t be, and anyway as long as we are out of the EU, I don’t give a feck..." This is the cold hard truth of Brexit. Anyone claiming that all predictions by economists are rubbish and some unspecified hocus pokus will save us, they either know deep inside that they’re talking bollocks or are so far gone with their beliefs that they’re beyond all reason. This guy nails it, doesn’t give a fuck how poor we get, how harsh the austerity rips the country apart, how many rights we lose, doesn’t give a shit about the environment or conditions for workers etc. This is someone being honest about Brexit, and showing us what we are dealing with. And yet more reason we can’t have another referendum and why the politicians must get their fingers out and end this bullshit now. | |||
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"Consider it a risk assessment by professionals. Advice for those about to make decisions. The politicians. Those politicians basically can: - Transfer the risk - Tolerate the risk - Treat the risk - Terminate the risk Thing is, the risks affect 65 million people rather than the 650 who will decide. It is important they make their decisions with knowledge and evidence, rather than ideology. 65 million and growing! Those plucky Iranians etc can't wait to get here and help out with our economy! Gor bless 'em.
It's the natural selection of illegal immigrants .Only the cleverest and strongest get through and replicate in our country.
Darwin would approve . "I guess after brexit Britain can look again at what it does with "refugees". | |||
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"Consider it a risk assessment by professionals. Advice for those about to make decisions. The politicians. Those politicians basically can: - Transfer the risk - Tolerate the risk - Treat the risk - Terminate the risk Thing is, the risks affect 65 million people rather than the 650 who will decide. It is important they make their decisions with knowledge and evidence, rather than ideology. 65 million and growing! Those plucky Iranians etc can't wait to get here and help out with our economy! Gor bless 'em.
It's the natural selection of illegal immigrants .Only the cleverest and strongest get through and replicate in our country.
Darwin would approve .
I guess after brexit Britain can look again at what it does with "refugees"."Why do you put refugees in quotations? What are you trying to suggest? | |||
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"Interesting that with less than 2 weeks to May's deal being voted on in parliament the treasury releases figures to show that Mat's deal is the best one. Cynical? Me? Never. " | |||
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" Wasn't It the bank of England who admitted they had a "Michael Fish moment" when their ridiculous forecasts in 2016 never materialised following the leave vote. You mean they predicted a 25% devaluation in the £ and it only turned out to be a 15% devaluation? " So they were miles out, just under half, and completly wrong over the recession we were going to get immediately after the vote, yet now you expect people to believe their even wilder predictions. | |||
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" Wasn't It the bank of England who admitted they had a "Michael Fish moment" when their ridiculous forecasts in 2016 never materialised following the leave vote. You mean they predicted a 25% devaluation in the £ and it only turned out to be a 15% devaluation? So they were miles out, just under half, and completly wrong over the recession we were going to get immediately after the vote, yet now you expect people to believe their even wilder predictions." the BoE had the job after the referendum has the choice of policy to try and save the economy, or to try and save the pound, they may the former so you aren't dismissing they got it right by saying the pound would be worth less.... but by how much its worth less!!! wow!!! so everything costs more and inflation has gone up... and yet you are cheering and claiming "victory" because it only got devalued by 15%.... whoo-hoo are you listening to yourself right now... just curious | |||
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" Wasn't It the bank of England who admitted they had a "Michael Fish moment" when their ridiculous forecasts in 2016 never materialised following the leave vote. You mean they predicted a 25% devaluation in the £ and it only turned out to be a 15% devaluation? So they were miles out, just under half, and completly wrong over the recession we were going to get immediately after the vote, yet now you expect people to believe their even wilder predictions. the BoE had the job after the referendum has the choice of policy to try and save the economy, or to try and save the pound, they may the former so you aren't dismissing they got it right by saying the pound would be worth less.... but by how much its worth less!!! wow!!! so everything costs more and inflation has gone up... and yet you are cheering and claiming "victory" because it only got devalued by 15%.... whoo-hoo are you listening to yourself right now... just curious" No what im saying is their guesses are wildly inaccurate so why believe these latest ones I notice you dont admit they were WRONG on employment and gdp completly wrong. I notice the BBC are claiming they base their forecasts partly on history, which is a reasonable point if it werent for the fact they cant this time as we have never been in this position | |||
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" It's clear you havent actually read the document....or f you have, you didnt understand what it was saying Just as good as reading a comic as read these forecasts, even those who produce thm admit they were wrong why would they be any better this time round? The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote. Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question. Wasn't It the bank of England who admitted they had a "Michael Fish moment" when their ridiculous forecasts in 2016 never materialised following the leave vote. " At least they had the decency to admit when they are wrong lol | |||
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" Wasn't It the bank of England who admitted they had a "Michael Fish moment" when their ridiculous forecasts in 2016 never materialised following the leave vote. You mean they predicted a 25% devaluation in the £ and it only turned out to be a 15% devaluation? So they were miles out, just under half, and completly wrong over the recession we were going to get immediately after the vote, yet now you expect people to believe their even wilder predictions." The treasury analysts didn’t predict a recession. George Osborne added that splash of genius. The actual analysis had it as a negative versus staying in. Since the vote we’ve gone from one of the highest growths to one of the lowest in the Eu. So while there numbers may be out, a fall like that, or a fall in sterling, should raise an eyebrow if not alarm bells. But hey, let’s look at the soundbites. | |||
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" Wasn't It the bank of England who admitted they had a "Michael Fish moment" when their ridiculous forecasts in 2016 never materialised following the leave vote. You mean they predicted a 25% devaluation in the £ and it only turned out to be a 15% devaluation? So they were miles out, just under half, and completly wrong over the recession we were going to get immediately after the vote, yet now you expect people to believe their even wilder predictions. the BoE had the job after the referendum has the choice of policy to try and save the economy, or to try and save the pound, they may the former so you aren't dismissing they got it right by saying the pound would be worth less.... but by how much its worth less!!! wow!!! so everything costs more and inflation has gone up... and yet you are cheering and claiming "victory" because it only got devalued by 15%.... whoo-hoo are you listening to yourself right now... just curious No what im saying is their guesses are wildly inaccurate so why believe these latest ones I notice you dont admit they were WRONG on employment and gdp completly wrong. I notice the BBC are claiming they base their forecasts partly on history, which is a reasonable point if it werent for the fact they cant this time as we have never been in this position" Fabio is also missing out that the Bank of England had been trying to devalue the pound (unsuccessfully) for years before the referendum. Former Bank of England governor Mervyn King made this public when the pound dropped in 2016. Brexit gave the bank of England the devaluation they had been looking for. | |||
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" So they were miles out, just under half, and completly wrong over the recession we were going to get immediately after the vote, yet now you expect people to believe their even wilder predictions." No. They have emphasised these are NOT predictions. | |||
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" So they were miles out, just under half, and completly wrong over the recession we were going to get immediately after the vote, yet now you expect people to believe their even wilder predictions. No. They have emphasised these are NOT predictions. " While that is true enough the media are imply thats what the Bank of E is saying might well happen which will spook people without good reason Brexit news latest: No deal scenario will see pound plunge and... Brexit deal latest news: No deal could trigger worst slump since ... Two headlines when you googe brexit news, notice the first one, its not MAY its WILL | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th....." Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? " What would you say better figures would be ? I suspect they’re toppy but broadly the right ballpark to put them in order. I’ve yet to see any evidence to put brexit as being gdp positive. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? What would you say better figures would be ? I suspect they’re toppy but broadly the right ballpark to put them in order. I’ve yet to see any evidence to put brexit as being gdp positive. " I just wondered - as the Treasury, Bank of England, the remainer campaign, the establishment, Obama and MSM all lied to you with false doom and gloom forecasts in 2016, which didn’t materialise I wasn’t sure if any of you still gave any creditability to similar forecasts in 2018, given that similar forecasts between 2016 and 2018 have also been completely incorrect? | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? What would you say better figures would be ? I suspect they’re toppy but broadly the right ballpark to put them in order. I’ve yet to see any evidence to put brexit as being gdp positive. I just wondered - as the Treasury, Bank of England, the remainer campaign, the establishment, Obama and MSM all lied to you with false doom and gloom forecasts in 2016, which didn’t materialise I wasn’t sure if any of you still gave any creditability to similar forecasts in 2018, given that similar forecasts between 2016 and 2018 have also been completely incorrect? " Have they been completely incorrect ? I’d say toppy but not fundamentally wrong. Gdp has (relative to the rest of the Eu) lost pace, sterling fell (whether it needed to or not, it did), the latest soundbite for trump suggests we’re not at the front of the queue (you can argue the whys, but it’s hard to deny the “fact”) They’ve been wrong in some areas (house prices, jobs) and so I’m warier about these predictions. I suspect these are driven more by confidence, and post the vote the consensus thought brexit was going to be a success (after all the majority voted for it). I do wonder now no deal is starting to feel more real, if optimisin is waning. The sense I have is it is causing more concerns at a business level if not a personal level. My guess is business will muddle through with minimal redundancies, but on lower productivity as they get lost in navigating choppy waters rather than steaming in as they were. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? What would you say better figures would be ? I suspect they’re toppy but broadly the right ballpark to put them in order. I’ve yet to see any evidence to put brexit as being gdp positive. I just wondered - as the Treasury, Bank of England, the remainer campaign, the establishment, Obama and MSM all lied to you with false doom and gloom forecasts in 2016, which didn’t materialise I wasn’t sure if any of you still gave any creditability to similar forecasts in 2018, given that similar forecasts between 2016 and 2018 have also been completely incorrect? Have they been completely incorrect ? I’d say toppy but not fundamentally wrong. Gdp has (relative to the rest of the Eu) lost pace, sterling fell (whether it needed to or not, it did), the latest soundbite for trump suggests we’re not at the front of the queue (you can argue the whys, but it’s hard to deny the “fact”) They’ve been wrong in some areas (house prices, jobs) and so I’m warier about these predictions. I suspect these are driven more by confidence, and post the vote the consensus thought brexit was going to be a success (after all the majority voted for it). I do wonder now no deal is starting to feel more real, if optimisin is waning. The sense I have is it is causing more concerns at a business level if not a personal level. My guess is business will muddle through with minimal redundancies, but on lower productivity as they get lost in navigating choppy waters rather than steaming in as they were. " I’m struggling to find anything they got right - the £ has fallen but it’s probably a natural fluctuation Looking at it from the Euro perspective it was €1.20 to the £ the day before the referendum (which predicted a remain win) We are now approx €1.13 to the £. It’s hardly the predicted disaster when the € and £ were trading one for one approx 10 yrs ago | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? What would you say better figures would be ? I suspect they’re toppy but broadly the right ballpark to put them in order. I’ve yet to see any evidence to put brexit as being gdp positive. I just wondered - as the Treasury, Bank of England, the remainer campaign, the establishment, Obama and MSM all lied to you with false doom and gloom forecasts in 2016, which didn’t materialise I wasn’t sure if any of you still gave any creditability to similar forecasts in 2018, given that similar forecasts between 2016 and 2018 have also been completely incorrect? Have they been completely incorrect ? I’d say toppy but not fundamentally wrong. Gdp has (relative to the rest of the Eu) lost pace, sterling fell (whether it needed to or not, it did), the latest soundbite for trump suggests we’re not at the front of the queue (you can argue the whys, but it’s hard to deny the “fact”) They’ve been wrong in some areas (house prices, jobs) and so I’m warier about these predictions. I suspect these are driven more by confidence, and post the vote the consensus thought brexit was going to be a success (after all the majority voted for it). I do wonder now no deal is starting to feel more real, if optimisin is waning. The sense I have is it is causing more concerns at a business level if not a personal level. My guess is business will muddle through with minimal redundancies, but on lower productivity as they get lost in navigating choppy waters rather than steaming in as they were. I’m struggling to find anything they got right - the £ has fallen but it’s probably a natural fluctuation Looking at it from the Euro perspective it was €1.20 to the £ the day before the referendum (which predicted a remain win) We are now approx €1.13 to the £. It’s hardly the predicted disaster when the € and £ were trading one for one approx 10 yrs ago " When you’re measuring against a fake reality (staying in) it’s had to find evidence either way. Look up uk gdp versus Eu post brexit and you’ll see how we’ve fallen in rank. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/dfafc806-762d-11e8-a8c4-408cfba4327c And the fx may be a natural correction. But it was a reasonable prediction nonetheless. Some will say it was what BoEvwas trying to do, but that was coupled with increasing interest rates and slowing down house prices. The exchange rate seems to have been the only part which had the adjustment. Either way we don’t recall any of the leave campaign saying at the time it would happen. As i said before, some of their assumptions were bad. Some of their conclusions therefore were likewise poor. But the bigger picture so little in the way of positive predictions (outside of Minford, who has crazier assumptions and conclusions imo) so I’m failing to see the upside. Those which dismiss this outright without putting up a counterposition are like football pundits who can spot a mistake after it happens. But never put themselves on the line themselves. They also tend to just commentate on the “highlights”. | |||
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"They've actually said they're not predictions, not forecasts, and not facts.....they're worat case scenarios'. So then, bollocks and fake news." Ermm.... don't you have to be a news website / organisation to actually produce "Fake News" | |||
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" It's clear you havent actually read the document....or f you have, you didnt understand what it was saying Just as good as reading a comic as read these forecasts, even those who produce thm admit they were wrong why would they be any better this time round? The Bank of England’s chief economist has admitted his profession is in crisis having failed to foresee the 2008 financial crash and having misjudged the impact of the Brexit vote. Andrew Haldane, said it was “a fair cop” referring to a series of forecasting errors before and after the financial crash which had brought the profession’s reputation into question." The BoE predicted sterling would fall if there was a leave vote in 2016....what happened? | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? What would you say better figures would be ? I suspect they’re toppy but broadly the right ballpark to put them in order. I’ve yet to see any evidence to put brexit as being gdp positive. I just wondered - as the Treasury, Bank of England, the remainer campaign, the establishment, Obama and MSM all lied to you with false doom and gloom forecasts in 2016, which didn’t materialise I wasn’t sure if any of you still gave any creditability to similar forecasts in 2018, given that similar forecasts between 2016 and 2018 have also been completely incorrect? Have they been completely incorrect ? I’d say toppy but not fundamentally wrong. Gdp has (relative to the rest of the Eu) lost pace, sterling fell (whether it needed to or not, it did), the latest soundbite for trump suggests we’re not at the front of the queue (you can argue the whys, but it’s hard to deny the “fact”) They’ve been wrong in some areas (house prices, jobs) and so I’m warier about these predictions. I suspect these are driven more by confidence, and post the vote the consensus thought brexit was going to be a success (after all the majority voted for it). I do wonder now no deal is starting to feel more real, if optimisin is waning. The sense I have is it is causing more concerns at a business level if not a personal level. My guess is business will muddle through with minimal redundancies, but on lower productivity as they get lost in navigating choppy waters rather than steaming in as they were. I’m struggling to find anything they got right - the £ has fallen but it’s probably a natural fluctuation Looking at it from the Euro perspective it was €1.20 to the £ the day before the referendum (which predicted a remain win) We are now approx €1.13 to the £. It’s hardly the predicted disaster when the € and £ were trading one for one approx 10 yrs ago " The Euro wasnt 1.20 the day before the referendum, it was 1.29, so that's a 12% drop since then. The lowest it's ever been is 1.04 and it wasnt there very long. | |||
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"They've actually said they're not predictions, not forecasts, and not facts.....they're worat case scenarios'. So then, bollocks and fake news. Ermm.... don't you have to be a news website / organisation to actually produce "Fake News"" Anyone worth their salt knows these are scenario tests. And definitively not fact. But it’s a jump to go from what ifs to fake news. What was the fake “input” which got to the fake news ? Or are we saying all predictions of the future is fake news ? Given we voted based on our beliefs about the future did we all vote on fake news ? | |||
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"They've actually said they're not predictions, not forecasts, and not facts.....they're worat case scenarios'. So then, bollocks and fake news." I think you need to re-read the information. The range of best to worse case scenarios have been reviewed. Even with the best leave option, the most positive forecasts (so the absolute best case scenario), we will be significantly poorer. | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... " What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" The "temporary disruption" was set out yesterday by the Bank of England. So now our MPs can make an informed decision. Either way, the "temporary disruption" comes with costs, be it in the value of the £, the value of your home and the price of its mortgage, the cost of your weekly shop and so on. Some people think it is a price worth paying, some do not. | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" I’m still waiting to see your economic models on the benefits of Brexit.... | |||
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"No one seriously disputes that leaving the EU will see Britain take an economic hit, at least in the short term. The best the brexiteers can say is that leaving the EU is worth it for non economic reasons and that the economic hit will only be a short term one. " Define short term.... 1 Week 1 Month A Year 5 Years 25 Years......???? And exactly what non economic reasons that have benefits as ones such as immigration or freedom of movement have links to the economy. Abstract concepts like sovereignty are meaningless and have no impact on citizens daily lives. | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" Christ you are so full of it - I hope you have plenty of secure investments tucked away for your sake mate because it’s not going to be a walk in the park for most of us but, then again you do live in the second most expensive part of the country for property so you’re probably all right jack | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself Christ you are so full of it - I hope you have plenty of secure investments tucked away for your sake mate because it’s not going to be a walk in the park for most of us but, then again you do live in the second most expensive part of the country for property so you’re probably all right jack" Go on then what did I post thats not true ? Are we about to stop buying and selling into the EU ? Or any of the other things I mentioned ? Average Tariffs are around 3/4% cars 10 and food can be higher but of course thats up to us to decide. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? What would you say better figures would be ? I suspect they’re toppy but broadly the right ballpark to put them in order. I’ve yet to see any evidence to put brexit as being gdp positive. I just wondered - as the Treasury, Bank of England, the remainer campaign, the establishment, Obama and MSM all lied to you with false doom and gloom forecasts in 2016, which didn’t materialise I wasn’t sure if any of you still gave any creditability to similar forecasts in 2018, given that similar forecasts between 2016 and 2018 have also been completely incorrect? Have they been completely incorrect ? I’d say toppy but not fundamentally wrong. Gdp has (relative to the rest of the Eu) lost pace, sterling fell (whether it needed to or not, it did), the latest soundbite for trump suggests we’re not at the front of the queue (you can argue the whys, but it’s hard to deny the “fact”) They’ve been wrong in some areas (house prices, jobs) and so I’m warier about these predictions. I suspect these are driven more by confidence, and post the vote the consensus thought brexit was going to be a success (after all the majority voted for it). I do wonder now no deal is starting to feel more real, if optimisin is waning. The sense I have is it is causing more concerns at a business level if not a personal level. My guess is business will muddle through with minimal redundancies, but on lower productivity as they get lost in navigating choppy waters rather than steaming in as they were. I’m struggling to find anything they got right - the £ has fallen but it’s probably a natural fluctuation Looking at it from the Euro perspective it was €1.20 to the £ the day before the referendum (which predicted a remain win) We are now approx €1.13 to the £. It’s hardly the predicted disaster when the € and £ were trading one for one approx 10 yrs ago The Euro wasnt 1.20 the day before the referendum, it was 1.29, so that's a 12% drop since then. The lowest it's ever been is 1.04 and it wasnt there very long. " The lowest Euro rate wasn’t 1.04 - it fell below 1.02 at the back end of 2008 - some 8 years before Brexit | |||
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"No one seriously disputes that leaving the EU will see Britain take an economic hit, at least in the short term. The best the brexiteers can say is that leaving the EU is worth it for non economic reasons and that the economic hit will only be a short term one. Define short term.... 1 Week 1 Month A Year 5 Years 25 Years......???? And exactly what non economic reasons that have benefits as ones such as immigration or freedom of movement have links to the economy. Abstract concepts like sovereignty are meaningless and have no impact on citizens daily lives." Its impossible to tell with any certainty due to all the micro decisions every business will make and of course the way eu businesses react. As for your comment on citizenship you may think its abstract but many do not, the reason I voted out is I dont beleive that the EU can become a single state without huge problems, there response from the likes of Junker etc to the vote proves they are in denial of not only many UK citizens views and opinions but millions of other europeans too. Lets have a vote in every country trade block only or full single state and be done with it once and for all. I have no problem with those that want a single state they are fully entitled to that view but they need to accept that millions are entitled to have a different view, | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself Christ you are so full of it - I hope you have plenty of secure investments tucked away for your sake mate because it’s not going to be a walk in the park for most of us but, then again you do live in the second most expensive part of the country for property so you’re probably all right jack Go on then what did I post thats not true ? Are we about to stop buying and selling into the EU ? Or any of the other things I mentioned ? Average Tariffs are around 3/4% cars 10 and food can be higher but of course thats up to us to decide. " So prices will be higher because of tarrifs. (reducing demand). Costs will be higher (but it’s okay because business can spend money to develop solutions to overcome the additional friction). All to carry on doing what we do today ? It’s not your “facts” which are being prodded but your conclusion. To sell an upside you need to show what will be better than today. | |||
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"No one seriously disputes that leaving the EU will see Britain take an economic hit, at least in the short term. The best the brexiteers can say is that leaving the EU is worth it for non economic reasons and that the economic hit will only be a short term one. Define short term.... 1 Week 1 Month A Year 5 Years 25 Years......???? And exactly what non economic reasons that have benefits as ones such as immigration or freedom of movement have links to the economy. Abstract concepts like sovereignty are meaningless and have no impact on citizens daily lives." I'm agreeing with you! It's bleeding obvious that massively disrupting your forty odd year old trading relationships will cause an economic hit. Failure to be honest about that is, for me, the brexiteers greatest sin. If they'd said "yes, there will be short term economic pain, but it's worth it because we will reclaim sovereignty and control immigration", I'd respect them a lot more. | |||
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"No one seriously disputes that leaving the EU will see Britain take an economic hit, at least in the short term. The best the brexiteers can say is that leaving the EU is worth it for non economic reasons and that the economic hit will only be a short term one. Define short term.... 1 Week 1 Month A Year 5 Years 25 Years......???? And exactly what non economic reasons that have benefits as ones such as immigration or freedom of movement have links to the economy. Abstract concepts like sovereignty are meaningless and have no impact on citizens daily lives. I'm agreeing with you! It's bleeding obvious that massively disrupting your forty odd year old trading relationships will cause an economic hit. Failure to be honest about that is, for me, the brexiteers greatest sin. If they'd said "yes, there will be short term economic pain, but it's worth it because we will reclaim sovereignty and control immigration", I'd respect them a lot more. " Well let's look at the figures: 44% of trade is EU based 16% of trade is with EU trade deals Which means at the moment 39% = rest of world - simple maths - all agreed yes? FACT IS FACT. So yes free trade with the rest of the world will bring bigger benefits yes? Ok we start at 39% + point We lose potentially 61% negative - but we will trade so let's be positive - we only lose 31%? So we have to increase world trade from 39% to 70% just to equal what we have at the moment right? So who are the main markets? 1.USA - we already sell MORE to them NOW - so will Don allow that? 2. China - will they open up to us - bearing in mind Germany is China's biggest EU trading partner? 3. India - we have a relationship already but it's going from being master to servant - role reversal! 4. Commonwealth - mainly poor countries miles away. It's going to be very difficult to REPLACE lost trade to the EU never mind increasing it! | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself Christ you are so full of it - I hope you have plenty of secure investments tucked away for your sake mate because it’s not going to be a walk in the park for most of us but, then again you do live in the second most expensive part of the country for property so you’re probably all right jack Go on then what did I post thats not true ? Are we about to stop buying and selling into the EU ? Or any of the other things I mentioned ? Average Tariffs are around 3/4% cars 10 and food can be higher but of course thats up to us to decide. " Actually it’s up to the WTO to decide in a no deal. That bottle of wine has just gone up 32% | |||
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"No one seriously disputes that leaving the EU will see Britain take an economic hit, at least in the short term. The best the brexiteers can say is that leaving the EU is worth it for non economic reasons and that the economic hit will only be a short term one. Define short term.... 1 Week 1 Month A Year 5 Years 25 Years......???? And exactly what non economic reasons that have benefits as ones such as immigration or freedom of movement have links to the economy. Abstract concepts like sovereignty are meaningless and have no impact on citizens daily lives. Its impossible to tell with any certainty due to all the micro decisions every business will make and of course the way eu businesses react. As for your comment on citizenship you may think its abstract but many do not, the reason I voted out is I dont beleive that the EU can become a single state without huge problems, there response from the likes of Junker etc to the vote proves they are in denial of not only many UK citizens views and opinions but millions of other europeans too. Lets have a vote in every country trade block only or full single state and be done with it once and for all. I have no problem with those that want a single state they are fully entitled to that view but they need to accept that millions are entitled to have a different view, " Citizenship and Sovereignty are different concepts I said Sovereignty was an abstract concept for citizens. Sovereignty is the full right and power of a governing body over itself. Citizenship is the status of being a citizen of a particular country. | |||
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"No one seriously disputes that leaving the EU will see Britain take an economic hit, at least in the short term. The best the brexiteers can say is that leaving the EU is worth it for non economic reasons and that the economic hit will only be a short term one. Define short term.... 1 Week 1 Month A Year 5 Years 25 Years......???? And exactly what non economic reasons that have benefits as ones such as immigration or freedom of movement have links to the economy. Abstract concepts like sovereignty are meaningless and have no impact on citizens daily lives. I'm agreeing with you! It's bleeding obvious that massively disrupting your forty odd year old trading relationships will cause an economic hit. Failure to be honest about that is, for me, the brexiteers greatest sin. If they'd said "yes, there will be short term economic pain, but it's worth it because we will reclaim sovereignty and control immigration", I'd respect them a lot more. Well let's look at the figures: 44% of trade is EU based 16% of trade is with EU trade deals Which means at the moment 39% = rest of world - simple maths - all agreed yes? FACT IS FACT. So yes free trade with the rest of the world will bring bigger benefits yes? Ok we start at 39% + point We lose potentially 61% negative - but we will trade so let's be positive - we only lose 31%? So we have to increase world trade from 39% to 70% just to equal what we have at the moment right? So who are the main markets? 1.USA - we already sell MORE to them NOW - so will Don allow that? 2. China - will they open up to us - bearing in mind Germany is China's biggest EU trading partner? 3. India - we have a relationship already but it's going from being master to servant - role reversal! 4. Commonwealth - mainly poor countries miles away. It's going to be very difficult to REPLACE lost trade to the EU never mind increasing it! " Just to add my two cents worth... The UK has been a net importer of goods (give or take) since pretty much the end of the industrial revolution The pound lost value the day of the referendum result, which, to date, it has not recovered. People stated that it was an 'adjustment' that was overdue and UK exports will be cheaper.. fine and dandy... except that the UK imports more than it exports! Every forecast states that the pound will nose dive if a hard exit comes to fruition. The Bank of England predicts 25% - hey ho, I'm not a financial expert so what do I know. IF its anywhere near that level, the economy will take a massive hit - remember that the price increases from the rate of exchange will be added to with trade tariffs, increase transport costs (oil paid for in dollars) and then good ol' VAT slapped on top! The Uk has lost a very large percentage of its industrial capacity and a large chunk of the remainder is partially or fully owned by johnny foreigner, youngsters don't have sitting at a sewing machine or lathe in mind when they are at school as a career, it will take years to redevelop what has been lost. Most people shop at a supermarket these days mainly for convenience and because of the size of these companies, the price they can command from their suppliers. The UK is leaving the canopy of the supermarket to set up Arkwrights Corner Store to try and take on the U.S. (Trumpy poos already stated that if the deal doesn't favor the U.S. it 'aint happening) China, India, Japan et al Trade deals don't happen overnight - fact Whether your a remainer or exiter, leave the passion, heart and ego in the box, step out of it and look around - the UK is now between a rock and a hard place | |||
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"No one seriously disputes that leaving the EU will see Britain take an economic hit, at least in the short term. The best the brexiteers can say is that leaving the EU is worth it for non economic reasons and that the economic hit will only be a short term one. Define short term.... 1 Week 1 Month A Year 5 Years 25 Years......???? And exactly what non economic reasons that have benefits as ones such as immigration or freedom of movement have links to the economy. Abstract concepts like sovereignty are meaningless and have no impact on citizens daily lives. I'm agreeing with you! It's bleeding obvious that massively disrupting your forty odd year old trading relationships will cause an economic hit. Failure to be honest about that is, for me, the brexiteers greatest sin. If they'd said "yes, there will be short term economic pain, but it's worth it because we will reclaim sovereignty and control immigration", I'd respect them a lot more. Well let's look at the figures: 44% of trade is EU based 16% of trade is with EU trade deals Which means at the moment 39% = rest of world - simple maths - all agreed yes? FACT IS FACT. So yes free trade with the rest of the world will bring bigger benefits yes? Ok we start at 39% + point We lose potentially 61% negative - but we will trade so let's be positive - we only lose 31%? So we have to increase world trade from 39% to 70% just to equal what we have at the moment right? So who are the main markets? 1.USA - we already sell MORE to them NOW - so will Don allow that? 2. China - will they open up to us - bearing in mind Germany is China's biggest EU trading partner? 3. India - we have a relationship already but it's going from being master to servant - role reversal! 4. Commonwealth - mainly poor countries miles away. It's going to be very difficult to REPLACE lost trade to the EU never mind increasing it! Just to add my two cents worth... The UK has been a net importer of goods (give or take) since pretty much the end of the industrial revolution The pound lost value the day of the referendum result, which, to date, it has not recovered. People stated that it was an 'adjustment' that was overdue and UK exports will be cheaper.. fine and dandy... except that the UK imports more than it exports! Every forecast states that the pound will nose dive if a hard exit comes to fruition. The Bank of England predicts 25% - hey ho, I'm not a financial expert so what do I know. IF its anywhere near that level, the economy will take a massive hit - remember that the price increases from the rate of exchange will be added to with trade tariffs, increase transport costs (oil paid for in dollars) and then good ol' VAT slapped on top! The Uk has lost a very large percentage of its industrial capacity and a large chunk of the remainder is partially or fully owned by johnny foreigner, youngsters don't have sitting at a sewing machine or lathe in mind when they are at school as a career, it will take years to redevelop what has been lost. Most people shop at a supermarket these days mainly for convenience and because of the size of these companies, the price they can command from their suppliers. The UK is leaving the canopy of the supermarket to set up Arkwrights Corner Store to try and take on the U.S. (Trumpy poos already stated that if the deal doesn't favor the U.S. it 'aint happening) China, India, Japan et al Trade deals don't happen overnight - fact Whether your a remainer or exiter, leave the passion, heart and ego in the box, step out of it and look around - the UK is now between a rock and a hard place" Thank you for injecting some reality into this forum. You sum up my view of the whole debacle perfectly. | |||
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"No one seriously disputes that leaving the EU will see Britain take an economic hit, at least in the short term. The best the brexiteers can say is that leaving the EU is worth it for non economic reasons and that the economic hit will only be a short term one. Define short term.... 1 Week 1 Month A Year 5 Years 25 Years......???? And exactly what non economic reasons that have benefits as ones such as immigration or freedom of movement have links to the economy. Abstract concepts like sovereignty are meaningless and have no impact on citizens daily lives. I'm agreeing with you! It's bleeding obvious that massively disrupting your forty odd year old trading relationships will cause an economic hit. Failure to be honest about that is, for me, the brexiteers greatest sin. If they'd said "yes, there will be short term economic pain, but it's worth it because we will reclaim sovereignty and control immigration", I'd respect them a lot more. Well let's look at the figures: 44% of trade is EU based 16% of trade is with EU trade deals Which means at the moment 39% = rest of world - simple maths - all agreed yes? FACT IS FACT. So yes free trade with the rest of the world will bring bigger benefits yes? Ok we start at 39% + point We lose potentially 61% negative - but we will trade so let's be positive - we only lose 31%? So we have to increase world trade from 39% to 70% just to equal what we have at the moment right? So who are the main markets? 1.USA - we already sell MORE to them NOW - so will Don allow that? 2. China - will they open up to us - bearing in mind Germany is China's biggest EU trading partner? 3. India - we have a relationship already but it's going from being master to servant - role reversal! 4. Commonwealth - mainly poor countries miles away. It's going to be very difficult to REPLACE lost trade to the EU never mind increasing it! Just to add my two cents worth... The UK has been a net importer of goods (give or take) since pretty much the end of the industrial revolution The pound lost value the day of the referendum result, which, to date, it has not recovered. People stated that it was an 'adjustment' that was overdue and UK exports will be cheaper.. fine and dandy... except that the UK imports more than it exports! Every forecast states that the pound will nose dive if a hard exit comes to fruition. The Bank of England predicts 25% - hey ho, I'm not a financial expert so what do I know. IF its anywhere near that level, the economy will take a massive hit - remember that the price increases from the rate of exchange will be added to with trade tariffs, increase transport costs (oil paid for in dollars) and then good ol' VAT slapped on top! The Uk has lost a very large percentage of its industrial capacity and a large chunk of the remainder is partially or fully owned by johnny foreigner, youngsters don't have sitting at a sewing machine or lathe in mind when they are at school as a career, it will take years to redevelop what has been lost. Most people shop at a supermarket these days mainly for convenience and because of the size of these companies, the price they can command from their suppliers. The UK is leaving the canopy of the supermarket to set up Arkwrights Corner Store to try and take on the U.S. (Trumpy poos already stated that if the deal doesn't favor the U.S. it 'aint happening) China, India, Japan et al Trade deals don't happen overnight - fact Whether your a remainer or exiter, leave the passion, heart and ego in the box, step out of it and look around - the UK is now between a rock and a hard place Thank you for injecting some reality into this forum. You sum up my view of the whole debacle perfectly. " Thanks for the kind words, a pleasant change to a barrage of mudslinging! *raising glass* | |||
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" If they'd said "yes, there will be short term economic pain, but it's worth it because we will reclaim sovereignty and control immigration", I'd respect them a lot more. Well let's look at the figures: 44% of trade is EU based 16% of trade is with EU trade deals Which means at the moment 39% = rest of world - simple maths - all agreed yes? FACT IS FACT. So yes free trade with the rest of the world will bring bigger benefits yes? Ok we start at 39% + point We lose potentially 61% negative - but we will trade so let's be positive - we only lose 31%? So we have to increase world trade from 39% to 70% just to equal what we have at the moment right? So who are the main markets? 1.USA - we already sell MORE to them NOW - so will Don allow that? 2. China - will they open up to us - bearing in mind Germany is China's biggest EU trading partner? 3. India - we have a relationship already but it's going from being master to servant - role reversal! 4. Commonwealth - mainly poor countries miles away. It's going to be very difficult to REPLACE lost trade to the EU never mind increasing it! " Why are we going to lose trade to the EU? Tariffs will add cost how much depends on what product but as the pound is down more than most tariffs out exports are still cheaper than before the vote, of course no doubt the French will play silly buggers and try and cause some issues at ports etc for a while but they forgt two can play at that game. I have asked many times how much of our exports to the EU will we lose because of tariffs, no one will answer that, to be fair it would be only aguess anyway because some europeans might say we arent buying uk anymore, but then maybe some here will say the same. We sell lots to the US now despite tariffs the people and companies of the EU will still buy our goods if A they are what they want and B are good value which with a lower pound they will be. All products are sold at what the market will stand, mercs and bmw sell at a higher cost than ford or vauxhall as some see them as a premium brand price becomes the deciding factor only when you A cant afford the higher price or B two products of the same quality are available, Supermarkets have been claiming that their costs have increased since brexit which is why food prices have risen, they claim to be absorbing some of those rises and that its very competitive BUT their margins/profits have grown at the same time, smoke and mirrors or better know as lies | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? What would you say better figures would be ? I suspect they’re toppy but broadly the right ballpark to put them in order. I’ve yet to see any evidence to put brexit as being gdp positive. I just wondered - as the Treasury, Bank of England, the remainer campaign, the establishment, Obama and MSM all lied to you with false doom and gloom forecasts in 2016, which didn’t materialise I wasn’t sure if any of you still gave any creditability to similar forecasts in 2018, given that similar forecasts between 2016 and 2018 have also been completely incorrect? Have they been completely incorrect ? I’d say toppy but not fundamentally wrong. Gdp has (relative to the rest of the Eu) lost pace, sterling fell (whether it needed to or not, it did), the latest soundbite for trump suggests we’re not at the front of the queue (you can argue the whys, but it’s hard to deny the “fact”) They’ve been wrong in some areas (house prices, jobs) and so I’m warier about these predictions. I suspect these are driven more by confidence, and post the vote the consensus thought brexit was going to be a success (after all the majority voted for it). I do wonder now no deal is starting to feel more real, if optimisin is waning. The sense I have is it is causing more concerns at a business level if not a personal level. My guess is business will muddle through with minimal redundancies, but on lower productivity as they get lost in navigating choppy waters rather than steaming in as they were. I’m struggling to find anything they got right - the £ has fallen but it’s probably a natural fluctuation Looking at it from the Euro perspective it was €1.20 to the £ the day before the referendum (which predicted a remain win) We are now approx €1.13 to the £. It’s hardly the predicted disaster when the € and £ were trading one for one approx 10 yrs ago The Euro wasnt 1.20 the day before the referendum, it was 1.29, so that's a 12% drop since then. The lowest it's ever been is 1.04 and it wasnt there very long. The lowest Euro rate wasn’t 1.04 - it fell below 1.02 at the back end of 2008 - some 8 years before Brexit " I stand corrected. It fell to 1.02 on 30/12/2008. By 30/1/2009 it was 1.12. I note you didnt admit that your figure for the euro immediately before the referendum was way out | |||
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"Mr _abio, couple of questions ; How accurate are these forecasts X% reduction in the economy, but How do these figures translate into everyday life in terms of income, job security etc. I ask these, as I'm not clued up on fiscal matters" I may be wrong, but I don't think anyone is predicting a shrinkage. What yesterday's figures did was compare: a) the economy of the UK if it had continued on the trend as of the figures immediately preceding the 2016 referendum versus b) the scenarios of leaving with or without a deal. This, as I understand it, is where economists get their figures that the economy will be X % smaller than it otherwise would have been. It grows, but not nearly at the rate it was prior to the referendum. | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself The "temporary disruption" was set out yesterday by the Bank of England. So now our MPs can make an informed decision. Either way, the "temporary disruption" comes with costs, be it in the value of the £, the value of your home and the price of its mortgage, the cost of your weekly shop and so on. Some people think it is a price worth paying, some do not. " A drop in house prices would be very much welcomed by a lot of people in this country, such as first time buyer's. You may see a drop in house prices as a negative but it's arrogant of you to assume everyone else feels the same. Not everyone sees these things as a negative. A caller on the BBC radio 2 Jeremy Vine show today said she voted leave in 2016 to trigger a house price crash, so this is what she's looking for from her vote. | |||
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"A drop in house prices + interest rates of 5 % = repossessions galore Great news. " We used to dream of 5% back in the 1980s! In modern times, interest rates have only been consistently low for the last decade. | |||
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"A drop in house prices + interest rates of 5 % = repossessions galore Great news. We used to dream of 5% back in the 1980s! In modern times, interest rates have only been consistently low for the last decade. " Since control was taken away from Politicians. | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself The "temporary disruption" was set out yesterday by the Bank of England. So now our MPs can make an informed decision. Either way, the "temporary disruption" comes with costs, be it in the value of the £, the value of your home and the price of its mortgage, the cost of your weekly shop and so on. Some people think it is a price worth paying, some do not. A drop in house prices would be very much welcomed by a lot of people in this country, such as first time buyer's. You may see a drop in house prices as a negative but it's arrogant of you to assume everyone else feels the same. Not everyone sees these things as a negative. A caller on the BBC radio 2 Jeremy Vine show today said she voted leave in 2016 to trigger a house price crash, so this is what she's looking for from her vote. " In isolation I agree it would be welcome. But if this was coupled with rising interest rates affordability may be equally as problematic (depends on which moves further). Add in banks looking at default risk in uncertain times (especially if not BOE supporting liquidity) and it may be the same place we are now. Then add in a drop in supply (as new homes are less profitable and people move less in falling markets) and it could be worse. None of this is a forecast. just a scenario to show it’s more complicated than one measure. | |||
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"A drop in house prices + interest rates of 5 % = repossessions galore Great news. We used to dream of 5% back in the 1980s! In modern times, interest rates have only been consistently low for the last decade. Since control was taken away from Politicians." The best thing that Gordon Brown ever did! | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself The "temporary disruption" was set out yesterday by the Bank of England. So now our MPs can make an informed decision. Either way, the "temporary disruption" comes with costs, be it in the value of the £, the value of your home and the price of its mortgage, the cost of your weekly shop and so on. Some people think it is a price worth paying, some do not. A drop in house prices would be very much welcomed by a lot of people in this country, such as first time buyer's. You may see a drop in house prices as a negative but it's arrogant of you to assume everyone else feels the same. Not everyone sees these things as a negative. A caller on the BBC radio 2 Jeremy Vine show today said she voted leave in 2016 to trigger a house price crash, so this is what she's looking for from her vote. In isolation I agree it would be welcome. But if this was coupled with rising interest rates affordability may be equally as problematic (depends on which moves further). Add in banks looking at default risk in uncertain times (especially if not BOE supporting liquidity) and it may be the same place we are now. Then add in a drop in supply (as new homes are less profitable and people move less in falling markets) and it could be worse. None of this is a forecast. just a scenario to show it’s more complicated than one measure. "You say a drop in supply as new homes would be less profitable. Well the Corbyn Labour supporters on here may like the sound of this as it's pretty much his policy.....A government backed mass house building programme to increase supply and boost the construction industry at the same time. Increase in supply for the private market and also increase in the council housing stock at the same time. | |||
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"A drop in house prices + interest rates of 5 % = repossessions galore Great news. We used to dream of 5% back in the 1980s! In modern times, interest rates have only been consistently low for the last decade. Since control was taken away from Politicians. The best thing that Gordon Brown ever did!" | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself The "temporary disruption" was set out yesterday by the Bank of England. So now our MPs can make an informed decision. Either way, the "temporary disruption" comes with costs, be it in the value of the £, the value of your home and the price of its mortgage, the cost of your weekly shop and so on. Some people think it is a price worth paying, some do not. A drop in house prices would be very much welcomed by a lot of people in this country, such as first time buyer's. You may see a drop in house prices as a negative but it's arrogant of you to assume everyone else feels the same. Not everyone sees these things as a negative. A caller on the BBC radio 2 Jeremy Vine show today said she voted leave in 2016 to trigger a house price crash, so this is what she's looking for from her vote. In isolation I agree it would be welcome. But if this was coupled with rising interest rates affordability may be equally as problematic (depends on which moves further). Add in banks looking at default risk in uncertain times (especially if not BOE supporting liquidity) and it may be the same place we are now. Then add in a drop in supply (as new homes are less profitable and people move less in falling markets) and it could be worse. None of this is a forecast. just a scenario to show it’s more complicated than one measure.
You say a drop in supply as new homes would be less profitable. Well the Corbyn Labour supporters on here may like the sound of this as it's pretty much his policy.....A government backed mass house building programme to increase supply and boost the construction industry at the same time. Increase in supply for the private market and also increase in the council housing stock at the same time. "Where will you get the builders? Will they have gone home? Hinkley Point C will have ceased, of course, but not many brickies there. Where will we get our electricity btw? I don’t want to live in a place like Gaza where it gets turned on for four hours a day. | |||
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"Mr _abio, couple of questions ; How accurate are these forecasts X% reduction in the economy, but How do these figures translate into everyday life in terms of income, job security etc. I ask these, as I'm not clued up on fiscal matters I may be wrong, but I don't think anyone is predicting a shrinkage. What yesterday's figures did was compare: a) the economy of the UK if it had continued on the trend as of the figures immediately preceding the 2016 referendum versus b) the scenarios of leaving with or without a deal. This, as I understand it, is where economists get their figures that the economy will be X % smaller than it otherwise would have been. It grows, but not nearly at the rate it was prior to the referendum. " Ah right, thanks sara | |||
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"To answer your question Robka with no trade deal or transition period in place produce from the UK cannot be certified as meeting EU standards therefore loss of trade." As of course the EU products wouldnt meet ours. Neither side is seriously going to be so stupid as to play that game | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th....." You will believe anything that suits your own ideas.The same committee forcast doom and gloom after the vote and they where wrong 100% The only thing that may hold any credence is a no deal brexit which is bad,but basically at the press conference afterwards Mark Carney had to admit that they based there figures in only one assumption,it is biased bullshit. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th.....You will believe anything that suits your own ideas.The same committee forcast doom and gloom after the vote and they where wrong 100% The only thing that may hold any credence is a no deal brexit which is bad,but basically at the press conference afterwards Mark Carney had to admit that they based there figures in only one assumption,it is biased bullshit." Hey the good news is only 120 days to find out! We will probably have a good idea by Xmas so eat drink & be merry - and play "George Michael song" . | |||
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"Careless whisper?" No lol but good guess Clue wasn't released in his sole name - but he was lead singer - have another go | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Just out of interest - how many of you believe these figures? What would you say better figures would be ? I suspect they’re toppy but broadly the right ballpark to put them in order. I’ve yet to see any evidence to put brexit as being gdp positive. I just wondered - as the Treasury, Bank of England, the remainer campaign, the establishment, Obama and MSM all lied to you with false doom and gloom forecasts in 2016, which didn’t materialise I wasn’t sure if any of you still gave any creditability to similar forecasts in 2018, given that similar forecasts between 2016 and 2018 have also been completely incorrect? Have they been completely incorrect ? I’d say toppy but not fundamentally wrong. Gdp has (relative to the rest of the Eu) lost pace, sterling fell (whether it needed to or not, it did), the latest soundbite for trump suggests we’re not at the front of the queue (you can argue the whys, but it’s hard to deny the “fact”) They’ve been wrong in some areas (house prices, jobs) and so I’m warier about these predictions. I suspect these are driven more by confidence, and post the vote the consensus thought brexit was going to be a success (after all the majority voted for it). I do wonder now no deal is starting to feel more real, if optimisin is waning. The sense I have is it is causing more concerns at a business level if not a personal level. My guess is business will muddle through with minimal redundancies, but on lower productivity as they get lost in navigating choppy waters rather than steaming in as they were. I’m struggling to find anything they got right - the £ has fallen but it’s probably a natural fluctuation Looking at it from the Euro perspective it was €1.20 to the £ the day before the referendum (which predicted a remain win) We are now approx €1.13 to the £. It’s hardly the predicted disaster when the € and £ were trading one for one approx 10 yrs ago The Euro wasnt 1.20 the day before the referendum, it was 1.29, so that's a 12% drop since then. The lowest it's ever been is 1.04 and it wasnt there very long. The lowest Euro rate wasn’t 1.04 - it fell below 1.02 at the back end of 2008 - some 8 years before Brexit I stand corrected. It fell to 1.02 on 30/12/2008. By 30/1/2009 it was 1.12. I note you didnt admit that your figure for the euro immediately before the referendum was way out" I note that you admit to your mistake and quote a recovery rate of 1.12 in 2009, which is still below the current rate - despite Brexit | |||
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"To answer your question Robka with no trade deal or transition period in place produce from the UK cannot be certified as meeting EU standards therefore loss of trade. As of course the EU products wouldnt meet ours. Neither side is seriously going to be so stupid as to play that game" We don't have any once we leave the EU lol | |||
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"To answer your question Robka with no trade deal or transition period in place produce from the UK cannot be certified as meeting EU standards therefore loss of trade. As of course the EU products wouldnt meet ours. Neither side is seriously going to be so stupid as to play that game" But one reason for brexit was that the UK would not have to comply with EU standards so would reduce standards and red tape | |||
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"Wait. Are we arguing that just the result of the reforendum is comparable, but not as bad, as the GFC ? It’s not a strong argument. " I’m not arguing that point at all - I’m merely pointing out the lies your politicians, MSM, BofE and establishment told you, surrounding a leave victory in the referendum None of their predictions, which were much worse than anything the GFC threw at you came true Why would you believe them now? | |||
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"To answer your question Robka with no trade deal or transition period in place produce from the UK cannot be certified as meeting EU standards therefore loss of trade. As of course the EU products wouldnt meet ours. Neither side is seriously going to be so stupid as to play that game But one reason for brexit was that the UK would not have to comply with EU standards so would reduce standards and red tape" Then when we no longer produced to EU standards we wouldn't sell anything to the EU. | |||
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" But one reason for brexit was that the UK would not have to comply with EU standards so would reduce standards and red tape" And sell our stuff to who, instead? | |||
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"Oops silly me The agenda here is to allow production in the UK to be destroyed. Manufacturing, engineering, agricultural . . . destroyed. From the ashes will rise something new akin to Singapore. Thatcher's hollowing out of industrial Britain sounds like a dress rehearsal compared to this. " I think that's the whole BREXIT idea | |||
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"To answer your question Robka with no trade deal or transition period in place produce from the UK cannot be certified as meeting EU standards therefore loss of trade. As of course the EU products wouldnt meet ours. Neither side is seriously going to be so stupid as to play that game" It is not a game though. Brextremists want a no deal scenario and that puts the U.K. outside of EU law then so be it. The U.K. will be outside EU law until such time as it accepts and adopts EU food standards regulations. It won’t stop the U.K. importing what it needs from the EU as the U.K. has already said that it will do that in the No Deal impact assessment report. The EU has ZERO history of allowing non compliant foodstuffs in. | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself The "temporary disruption" was set out yesterday by the Bank of England. So now our MPs can make an informed decision. Either way, the "temporary disruption" comes with costs, be it in the value of the £, the value of your home and the price of its mortgage, the cost of your weekly shop and so on. Some people think it is a price worth paying, some do not. A drop in house prices would be very much welcomed by a lot of people in this country, such as first time buyer's. You may see a drop in house prices as a negative but it's arrogant of you to assume everyone else feels the same. Not everyone sees these things as a negative. A caller on the BBC radio 2 Jeremy Vine show today said she voted leave in 2016 to trigger a house price crash, so this is what she's looking for from her vote. In isolation I agree it would be welcome. But if this was coupled with rising interest rates affordability may be equally as problematic (depends on which moves further). Add in banks looking at default risk in uncertain times (especially if not BOE supporting liquidity) and it may be the same place we are now. Then add in a drop in supply (as new homes are less profitable and people move less in falling markets) and it could be worse. None of this is a forecast. just a scenario to show it’s more complicated than one measure.
You say a drop in supply as new homes would be less profitable. Well the Corbyn Labour supporters on here may like the sound of this as it's pretty much his policy.....A government backed mass house building programme to increase supply and boost the construction industry at the same time. Increase in supply for the private market and also increase in the council housing stock at the same time.
Where will you get the builders? Will they have gone home?
Hinkley Point C will have ceased, of course, but not many brickies there.
Where will we get our electricity btw? I don’t want to live in a place like Gaza where it gets turned on for four hours a day."You're way behind the curve on this as they have robotic brick laying systems now. Work in all weather's and don't require tea breaks, fag breaks or dinner breaks. Failing that you could always ask Corbyn and McDonnel as government backed housing is their policy anyway. | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself The "temporary disruption" was set out yesterday by the Bank of England. So now our MPs can make an informed decision. Either way, the "temporary disruption" comes with costs, be it in the value of the £, the value of your home and the price of its mortgage, the cost of your weekly shop and so on. Some people think it is a price worth paying, some do not. A drop in house prices would be very much welcomed by a lot of people in this country, such as first time buyer's. You may see a drop in house prices as a negative but it's arrogant of you to assume everyone else feels the same. Not everyone sees these things as a negative. A caller on the BBC radio 2 Jeremy Vine show today said she voted leave in 2016 to trigger a house price crash, so this is what she's looking for from her vote. In isolation I agree it would be welcome. But if this was coupled with rising interest rates affordability may be equally as problematic (depends on which moves further). Add in banks looking at default risk in uncertain times (especially if not BOE supporting liquidity) and it may be the same place we are now. Then add in a drop in supply (as new homes are less profitable and people move less in falling markets) and it could be worse. None of this is a forecast. just a scenario to show it’s more complicated than one measure.
You say a drop in supply as new homes would be less profitable. Well the Corbyn Labour supporters on here may like the sound of this as it's pretty much his policy.....A government backed mass house building programme to increase supply and boost the construction industry at the same time. Increase in supply for the private market and also increase in the council housing stock at the same time.
Where will you get the builders? Will they have gone home?
Hinkley Point C will have ceased, of course, but not many brickies there.
Where will we get our electricity btw? I don’t want to live in a place like Gaza where it gets turned on for four hours a day.
You're way behind the curve on this as they have robotic brick laying systems now. Work in all weather's and don't require tea breaks, fag breaks or dinner breaks. Failing that you could always ask Corbyn and McDonnel as government backed housing is their policy anyway. "Might be 30 years but some are forcasting human free building sites by 2050. But that's a forecast | |||
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"Wait. Are we arguing that just the result of the reforendum is comparable, but not as bad, as the GFC ? It’s not a strong argument. I’m not arguing that point at all - I’m merely pointing out the lies your politicians, MSM, BofE and establishment told you, surrounding a leave victory in the referendum None of their predictions, which were much worse than anything the GFC threw at you came true Why would you believe them now? " And round the mullberry bush we go once more. Economic forecasts aren’t lies. They’re predictions of an incredibly complex (almost chaotic) ecosystem. They’re a guide not an exact science. Sure you can dismiss them as being wrong, but you need to explain what was erroneous about the assumptions or models. Now keeping that in mind... Did sterling fall after brexit ? Did we move from being consistently from having one of the highest gbp growths to having one of the lowest? Both suggest the forecasts were not totally off as “lies” would imply. “But we were due a correction”. May be true. It’s still happened. “But we had better growth last q”. Okay, what is the right number of months to look at? Because in the last two months we had no growth. Which starts to look like recession territory. “But the predictions on houses was wrong” House prices and interest rates are fairly inversely correlated. So a cut straight after brexit helps prop up the market. “But there were meant to be job losses”. QE and BOE offering to backstop banks may have helped. That the transition period was signposted May have helped. Now don’t get me wrong. I don’t think the forecasts were entirely on the money. I think the belief uncertainty would cause industry to seize up was erroneous. Business plan over a greater time period than two years and while they prefer stability are used to uncertainty. It takes a real event to cause a huge hit. It just being a possibility isn’t really enough. However I think the longer term studies may be more credible especially combined with industry commentary and the lack of upside to date (no other trade deals. Trump comments etc) But yeah. Fake news etc etc | |||
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"So come on Brexiteers let’s see your predictions on how we are all going to be better off in this “golden future” of isolationism ...... I’m waiting....... What Isolation? all we are doing is leaving a closed shop club that wants to force every member into sharing the same currency, tax rules and army regardless of the fact that we are completly different in mny respects, the costs of running this super state and lack of accountability is enormous. We will still trade with europe and the rest of the world, we will still travel to far flung corners and we will still welcome millions of tourists and workers here. There may well be some temporary disruption wile new systems bed in but it will be short lived, businesses arent like governments we find solutions to problems FAST . The only thing we have to fear is fear itself The "temporary disruption" was set out yesterday by the Bank of England. So now our MPs can make an informed decision. Either way, the "temporary disruption" comes with costs, be it in the value of the £, the value of your home and the price of its mortgage, the cost of your weekly shop and so on. Some people think it is a price worth paying, some do not. A drop in house prices would be very much welcomed by a lot of people in this country, such as first time buyer's. You may see a drop in house prices as a negative but it's arrogant of you to assume everyone else feels the same. Not everyone sees these things as a negative. A caller on the BBC radio 2 Jeremy Vine show today said she voted leave in 2016 to trigger a house price crash, so this is what she's looking for from her vote. In isolation I agree it would be welcome. But if this was coupled with rising interest rates affordability may be equally as problematic (depends on which moves further). Add in banks looking at default risk in uncertain times (especially if not BOE supporting liquidity) and it may be the same place we are now. Then add in a drop in supply (as new homes are less profitable and people move less in falling markets) and it could be worse. None of this is a forecast. just a scenario to show it’s more complicated than one measure.
You say a drop in supply as new homes would be less profitable. Well the Corbyn Labour supporters on here may like the sound of this as it's pretty much his policy.....A government backed mass house building programme to increase supply and boost the construction industry at the same time. Increase in supply for the private market and also increase in the council housing stock at the same time.
Where will you get the builders? Will they have gone home?
Hinkley Point C will have ceased, of course, but not many brickies there.
Where will we get our electricity btw? I don’t want to live in a place like Gaza where it gets turned on for four hours a day.
You're way behind the curve on this as they have robotic brick laying systems now. Work in all weather's and don't require tea breaks, fag breaks or dinner breaks. Failing that you could always ask Corbyn and McDonnel as government backed housing is their policy anyway. "How many of these robotic systems are currently at work in the UK? | |||
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"To answer your question Robka with no trade deal or transition period in place produce from the UK cannot be certified as meeting EU standards therefore loss of trade. As of course the EU products wouldnt meet ours. Neither side is seriously going to be so stupid as to play that game But one reason for brexit was that the UK would not have to comply with EU standards so would reduce standards and red tape" Bloody red tape and standards are holding this country back, the sooner we see the return of kiddies stabbing themselves with teddy bears with pins for eyes the better | |||
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"Just to inject a little balance, there have also been suggestions that a reasonable amount of fudging was involved when coming up with these figures and that there are a number of things that these projections fail to take into consideration. " Like all projections...it's just an educated guess, nothing more. Was there any talk in the report about any long range upside?...Any realistic sign of short term cost/ long term benefit or is Brexit still leading with a vague and misleading sense of "sovergnity"? | |||
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"Let's put things into emotional language ...anyone have a guideline for how many job losses we are talking about per % drop in GDP?" The numbers may be in the BoE report. Their worst-case scenario was unemployment at 7.5 per cent. Not helped by robots laying bricks, either. | |||
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"Give me the numbers...how many thousand families will lose their livelihood?" None of those driving us over the cliff, I suspect. | |||
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"Give me the numbers...how many thousand families will lose their livelihood? None of those driving us over the cliff, I suspect. " Except those that drank the koolaid, voted out and now can't face facts. Turkey + Christmas | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th....." Someone tell the Iranians. Save them before its too late. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th....." Lol and you really believe it. We are heading for a resession anyway let’s blame it on brexit. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Lol and you really believe it. We are heading for a resession anyway let’s blame it on brexit. " Are you saying we’d be moving towards a recession even without brexit? | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Lol and you really believe it. We are heading for a resession anyway let’s blame it on brexit. Are you saying we’d be moving towards a recession even without brexit? " Fuck that's a fine piece of ego protecting rationalisation if I ever heard it. We were due a recession all along | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Lol and you really believe it. We are heading for a resession anyway let’s blame it on brexit. Are you saying we’d be moving towards a recession even without brexit? " Yes it’s fact. Look at history and cycle of recessions it’s coming with or without brexit and has been edging in to it for a while now. | |||
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"the government have done some economic analysis predicts the GDP would fall under different scenario's... so........ No Deal..... GDP fall by 7.6% (around £150 billion pounds) Mays Deal.... GDP Fall by 1-2% (around £40 Billion pounds) Canada FTA Deal.... GDP Fall by 4.9% Norway Deal..... GDP Fall by 1.4% so can we finally stop with the brexit bonus nonsense please.... whichever way you want to slice it, we are going to be poorer post march 29th..... Lol and you really believe it. We are heading for a resession anyway let’s blame it on brexit. Are you saying we’d be moving towards a recession even without brexit? Yes it’s fact. Look at history and cycle of recessions it’s coming with or without brexit and has been edging in to it for a while now. " We are over due a recession. A big one. However, it's not here yet. The global economy was steaming away during and after the Brexit vote. We are the only country that took a significant hit. Look at some boring graphs of GDP growth over the period. It's very clear. Much the same way as claiming that unemployment in the USA or UK is lower than ever and you compare it to the long term trend and see nothing's changed. | |||
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