FabSwingers.com forum: January 21, 2019

By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

How important might this date be?

The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 states the Prime Minister is required to make a statement on or before January 21, 2019, if the UK and the EU have been unable to agree terms.

A Minister must appear before Parliament within 14 working days to explain the way forward.

That way forward must be approved by Parliament and "noted" by the House of Lords.

So the no-deal scenario favoured by some will require the approval of Parliament.

What do you think?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Personally, no fucking chance

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By *verysmileMan
over a year ago

Canterbury

Not sure that "no deal" would require a vote. Isn't that the scenario that the backstop is for?

Ps....isn't a backstop, someone who catches missed balls?

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

I'd call it the backstop made in the UK.

It is written into law.

It stops the no-deal (assuming the door to the EU is still open), unless a majority in Parliament decide to proceed to the exit.

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Sorry, within 5 days, not 14 days.

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By *abioMan
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead

"How important might this date be?

The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 states the Prime Minister is required to make a statement on or before January 21, 2019, if the UK and the EU have been unable to agree terms.

A Minister must appear before Parliament within 14 working days to explain the way forward.

That way forward must be approved by Parliament and "noted" by the House of Lords.

So the no-deal scenario favoured by some will require the approval of Parliament.

What do you think?

the 2nd sentence from the end is not quite right....

if there is no solution agreed by consensus then it will default to that "hardest" no deal situation some "mad" people want....

if at that stage nothing looks like it is going to be agreed, that is the point where i would expect someone to try an table a motion asking for the 2nd referendum

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By *verysmileMan
over a year ago

Canterbury

I am not agreeing or disagreeing but I cannot see the point that you are making....sorry??

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Section 13 of the Act:

(10) Subsection (11) applies if, at the end of 21 January 2019, there is no agreement in principle in negotiations under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union on the substance of—

(a)the arrangements for the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the EU, and

(b)the framework for the future relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom after withdrawal.

(11) A Minister of the Crown must, within the period of five days beginning with the end of 21 January 2019—

(a)make a statement setting out how Her Majesty’s Government proposes to proceed, and

(b) make arrangements for—

(i) a motion in neutral terms, to the effect that the House of Commons has considered the matter of the statement mentioned in paragraph (a), to be moved in that House by a Minister of the Crown within the period of five Commons sitting days beginning with the end of 21 January 2019, and

(ii)a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the statement mentioned in paragraph (a) to be moved in that House by a Minister of the Crown within the period of five Lords sitting days beginning with the end of 21 January 2019.

(12) A statement under subsection (11)(a) must be made in writing and be published in such manner as the Minister making it considers appropriate

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

"I am not agreeing or disagreeing but I cannot see the point that you are making....sorry??"

That a no-deal exit from the EU requires a majority in Parliament.

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By *verysmileMan
over a year ago

Canterbury

That is the law with all of it's jargon but what is your point?

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

If Mrs May cannot get her proposal through Parliament in December, what happens next?

A Minister must come to the House by January 21 explaining the way forward.

That must be approved by Parliament.

My point is that Parliament is even less likely to approve no-deal than it is Mrs May's deal.

If the door to the EU is closed, we will be in complete and utter limbo.

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By *bandjam91Couple
over a year ago

London

[Removed by poster at 25/11/18 21:48:22]

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

This is where Mrs May gets her "no Brexit" outcome from.

The only thing the Government could do in those circumstances is stay, suspend or revoke the Article 50 notice.

It is the only option left open to it.

In law.

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By *bandjam91Couple
over a year ago

London

"Not sure that "no deal" would require a vote. Isn't that the scenario that the backstop is for?

Ps....isn't a backstop, someone who catches missed balls?"

No, that isn't what the Backstop is for.

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

The subsequent impasse can be resolved in a couple of ways:

1) Call an election

2) Call a 2nd Referendum

Would Theresa May (or any Conservative PM who has replaced her) risk an election defeat on the back of such a poorly organised Brexit process?

I really cannot see any Government allowing the country to crash out of the EU with literally no deals in place. The ensuing carnage would ensure they would never get elected again for decades.

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
over a year ago

in Lancashire

"The subsequent impasse can be resolved in a couple of ways:

1) Call an election

2) Call a 2nd Referendum

Would Theresa May (or any Conservative PM who has replaced her) risk an election defeat on the back of such a poorly organised Brexit process?

I really cannot see any Government allowing the country to crash out of the EU with literally no deals in place. The ensuing carnage would ensure they would never get elected again for decades."

This, the shitstorm of a no deal will linger a long time..

Even more so than calling a referendum on the actual deal agreed today in Brussels and that then reversing the current status of us and the EU..

No fucker wanted the responsibility, even the swivel eyed rabid leave and fuck the consequences lot who have bottled it..

No one wants to be the owner of a no deal as their legacy..

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By *igsteve43Man
over a year ago

derby

One of two things is going to happen,

1 we leave with no deal,or

2 we beg to stay lose our veto, and join the eurozone

Im not sure which is worse

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By *yth11Couple
over a year ago

newark

Uk Parliament can not override eu law which states we out march 29.

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

"One of two things is going to happen,

1 we leave with no deal,or

2 we beg to stay lose our veto, and join the eurozone

Im not sure which is worse"

Why lose our veto, join the Euro (and lose our rebate)?

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

It's interesting and May is happy to do the opposite of what she has formerly said she won't.

I can see a referendum being arranged but the legal changes needed won't be quick - it would probably struggle for March!

She could alternatively state that we should stay but that's a massive expectation requiring honesty

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By *ab_SparklesWoman
over a year ago

sparkle Surprised

Slow down I'm just about keeping up with her waffle the saggy prune playing a old saggy prune may I add.

Gosh even jury's take longer to decide a faint than the EU so premeditated and wrapped up before there backsides imprinted in the chairs.

It's seriously like the school race who wins 1st EU who came last night UK.

And as for those backing it. They had better get their fincences in order cause when used be stuffed back in back bench until the end of general election.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"How important might this date be?

The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 states the Prime Minister is required to make a statement on or before January 21, 2019, if the UK and the EU have been unable to agree terms.

A Minister must appear before Parliament within 14 working days to explain the way forward.

That way forward must be approved by Parliament and "noted" by the House of Lords.

So the no-deal scenario favoured by some will require the approval of Parliament.

What do you think?

the 2nd sentence from the end is not quite right....

if there is no solution agreed by consensus then it will default to that "hardest" no deal situation some "mad" people want....

if at that stage nothing looks like it is going to be agreed, that is the point where i would expect someone to try an table a motion asking for the 2nd referendum"

...wjich there wouldn't be enough time left to put in place.

Incidentally, in the event of 'no deal' there will be no Northern Ireland backstop.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"How important might this date be?

The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 states the Prime Minister is required to make a statement on or before January 21, 2019, if the UK and the EU have been unable to agree terms.

A Minister must appear before Parliament within 14 working days to explain the way forward.

That way forward must be approved by Parliament and "noted" by the House of Lords.

So the no-deal scenario favoured by some will require the approval of Parliament.

What do you think?

the 2nd sentence from the end is not quite right....

if there is no solution agreed by consensus then it will default to that "hardest" no deal situation some "mad" people want....

if at that stage nothing looks like it is going to be agreed, that is the point where i would expect someone to try an table a motion asking for the 2nd referendum

...wjich there wouldn't be enough time left to put in place.

Incidentally, in the event of 'no deal' there will be no Northern Ireland backstop.

Quite correct and will ultimately result in a hard boarder which will result in the GFA falling to bits! Well done! However after a few bombings on the UK mainland, it will focus people's minds as it did in 70's!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

My MP is mad. He thinks we are still at war with Germany and that the new Churchill (Boris) will get the country together and send us all into battle. Not much hope for anything but a head in sand, arse in air, crashout Brexit

Deep joy.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 26/11/18 08:40:19]

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By *verysmileMan
over a year ago

Canterbury

"One of two things is going to happen,

1 we leave with no deal,or

2 we beg to stay lose our veto, and join the eurozone

Im not sure which is worse

Why lose our veto, join the Euro (and lose our rebate)?

Probably because that is the early position taken by the EU as an implied threat before the article 50 letter was issued?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

We can’t turn around now, and decide we are not leaving. I doubt that the EU would afford us such an option, (not that I would them want to). As mentioned already by another poster, the only way back in would be as a new member, which would take years.

May has kept us in limbo for so long now, that I wouldn’t be surprised if she did attempt to scupper BREXIT, but I think she has left it too late. Thankfully...

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

It’s all a bit of a headache.

If Parliament in December votes down the agreement, what comes next?

The Electoral Commission says six months is the minimum amount of time for a referendum, from a vote in Parliament to an actual poll.

In those circumstances, Article 50 would need to be postponed. Can it? The ECJ will opine soon.

Whatever happens, it would need approved by Parliament before the end of January.

Is it possible for Parliament to vote down the no-deal exit, yet the UK still leaves with no deal on March 29.

I have never seen a morass like this.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"It’s all a bit of a headache.

If Parliament in December votes down the agreement, what comes next?

The Electoral Commission says six months is the minimum amount of time for a referendum, from a vote in Parliament to an actual poll.

In those circumstances, Article 50 would need to be postponed. Can it? The ECJ will opine soon.

Whatever happens, it would need approved by Parliament before the end of January.

Is it possible for Parliament to vote down the no-deal exit, yet the UK still leaves with no deal on March 29.

I have never seen a morass like this."

But what if the EU say no? Or what if MP's shoot themselves in the foot and vote no deal or vote no confidence in the government? We always assume that the sensible option is the winner, but surely brexit is a game changer?

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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago

Barbados

"It’s all a bit of a headache.

If Parliament in December votes down the agreement, what comes next?

The Electoral Commission says six months is the minimum amount of time for a referendum, from a vote in Parliament to an actual poll.

In those circumstances, Article 50 would need to be postponed. Can it? The ECJ will opine soon.

Whatever happens, it would need approved by Parliament before the end of January.

Is it possible for Parliament to vote down the no-deal exit, yet the UK still leaves with no deal on March 29.

I have never seen a morass like this.

I think, if we have learnt anything from the current state of global politics, it is that ‘sensible option’ is pretty meaningless!

-Matt

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

If I was the EU, I’d prepare for both outcomes - agreement and no agreement.

The UK is an unstable country at the moment.

It is negotiating with an administration whose mandate appears shaky at best.

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

"One of two things is going to happen,

1 we leave with no deal,or

2 we beg to stay lose our veto, and join the eurozone

Im not sure which is worse

Why lose our veto, join the Euro (and lose our rebate)?

The ECJ ruling is clear that a member state that revokes Art 50 remains a member on the same terms as before

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By *estivalMan
over a year ago

borehamwood

to the poster who said there would be bombings on the u.k main land if a border goes up why is that? if a border goes up ot goes up on the republic side and will be policed by them.and they dont want a border either so it aint hona happen.yhink the e.u and republic have overplayed there hand as far as the border is concerned

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"to the poster who said there would be bombings on the u.k main land if a border goes up why is that? if a border goes up ot goes up on the republic side and will be policed by them.and they dont want a border either so it aint hona happen.yhink the e.u and republic have overplayed there hand as far as the border is concerned"

I think you have a lack of understanding of the importance of an open border to the people who live in the border counties.

There is a reason that the open border was stipulated in the Good Friday agreement.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I think you have a lack of understanding of the importance of an open border to the people who live in the border counties.

There is a reason that the open border was stipulated in the Good Friday agreement. "

Is it not a case of "world rules"?

The UK and Republic of Ireland signed a treaty GFA.

When we leave and assuming it's WTO RULES - require that borders are in place between 2 countries if there is no customs union or FTA?

So what's it going to be?

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By *estivalMan
over a year ago

borehamwood

who is going to put border in place?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"who is going to put border in place?"

The rules are the rules.

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

The Northern Irish don’t want a border.

The Northern Irish voted to stay in the EU,

The English voted to leave.

The English made a song and dance about “taking back control of our borders”.

The Belfast Agreement was possible only because the UK and Ireland were both members of the EU.

The English voted to change that.

The further the UK diverges from the rules of the single market, the less open the UK becomes.

The less open the UK becomes, the higher the barriers to the free movement of people, goods and services.

That’s the same in Dover as it is in Ulster.

Ireland’s objective is to preserve the Belfast Agreement.

The UK says the same.

The only way to do that is through regulatory alignment of North and South.

Hence the backstop that prevents the North being dragged in a different direction to the south.

The Brextremists have no answer to this conundrum.

All they do is wail and shout about the big bad EU taking away their sovereignty.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

Jan the first will be another boring new years day nothing more nothing less

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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago

Barbados

"Jan the first will be another boring new years day nothing more nothing less"

And?

-Matt

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By *ara J OP TV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

"Jan the first will be another boring new years day nothing more nothing less"

How is your day so far?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Jan the first will be another boring new years day nothing more nothing less"

But at least you're not going to be spending it dodging bullets or bombs or starving!

There's always something to be thankfull for

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

"Jan the first will be another boring new years day nothing more nothing less

But at least you're not going to be spending it dodging bullets or bombs or starving!

There's always something to be thankfull for

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"How important might this date be?

The European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 states the Prime Minister is required to make a statement on or before January 21, 2019, if the UK and the EU have been unable to agree terms.

A Minister must appear before Parliament within 14 working days to explain the way forward.

That way forward must be approved by Parliament and "noted" by the House of Lords.

So the no-deal scenario favoured by some will require the approval of Parliament.

What do you think?

*gulp*

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