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"She will hope a lot of Labour support her" Labour support a Tory finance/budget vote? Is that a joke? | |||
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"So tonight the DUP failed to back the Tory Government on voting for the finance bill. They instead chose to abstain. A clear warning to Theresa May that she is playing with fire and that the DUP want her to change direction on her Brexit plan or they will withdraw the confidence and supply arrangement and withdraw support for the government. The finance bill votes are part of the Budget and the convention in the House of commons is that the budget vote also works as a confidence vote in the government. So maybe the ERG don't need to force a confidence vote in Theresa May, the DUP can do it for them. Will this force Theresa May to change direction on her Brexit plan now? " Excellent. Here comes another referendum or a general election then. Oh dear, Brexit delayed or cancelled then. Must make you frustrated. Shame. | |||
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"Definitely a warning shot from the DUP. We'll have to see if they'll see it out because realistically if they fall out with the Tories they might never be in power in the British Parliament again." TM may call their bluff... because where they would in in the brexit debate, there is no way they would vote against her in a no confidence motion, because they once thing the DUP are more scared of is a jeremy corbyn govt.... the DUP are in danger of very much overplaying their hand here.... | |||
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"Appears to be a " coalition of chaos " " The DUP are playing with fire. They don't represent the majority view in NI and they've shown how politically inept they are by failing to get Stormont up and functioning. I don't support May or her government, but I hate the idea that 10 creationist headcases wield so much power over the whole of the UK | |||
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"the DUP are more scared of is a jeremy corbyn govt.... the DUP are in danger of very much overplaying their hand here...." I think you may be very wrong with this. The DUP are the product and political wing of the most fanatical of protestant 'loyalist' paramilitaries and whereas Sinn Fein have totally embraced peace and the peace process the same cannot be said for the DUP. That is why there has been no NI Assembly for the past for the past 21 months. The DUP are quite capable of bringing down Mrs May and the Tories, regardless of consequences, if they think for just 1 second that the brexit deal will bring Irish unification any closer or in any way upsets the status quo (where they hold the majority of the power) in NI. | |||
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"I don't think May will change tact at all." Agreed. Even if she is forced to withdraw part of the settlement she has backed she will find a way to enact it through the back door. Just as she has enacted the parts of the Tory manifesto she was forced to drop and dropped the parts she was forced to adopt in order not to get a pasting at the last GE. | |||
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"the DUP are more scared of is a jeremy corbyn govt.... the DUP are in danger of very much overplaying their hand here.... I think you may be very wrong with this. The DUP are the product and political wing of the most fanatical of protestant 'loyalist' paramilitaries and whereas Sinn Fein have totally embraced peace and the peace process the same cannot be said for the DUP. That is why there has been no NI Assembly for the past for the past 21 months. The DUP are quite capable of bringing down Mrs May and the Tories, regardless of consequences, if they think for just 1 second that the brexit deal will bring Irish unification any closer or in any way upsets the status quo (where they hold the majority of the power) in NI." Funny i thought Martin McGuinnes was the man responsible for the collapse of Stormont because he refused to work within a corrupt system. He & Sinn Fein have refused to work with the corrupt dup ever since. | |||
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"So tonight the DUP failed to back the Tory Government on voting for the finance bill. They instead chose to abstain. A clear warning to Theresa May that she is playing with fire and that the DUP want her to change direction on her Brexit plan or they will withdraw the confidence and supply arrangement and withdraw support for the government. The finance bill votes are part of the Budget and the convention in the House of commons is that the budget vote also works as a confidence vote in the government. So maybe the ERG don't need to force a confidence vote in Theresa May, the DUP can do it for them. Will this force Theresa May to change direction on her Brexit plan now? " In a word, No. In more words, Theresa is not going to move an inch on the current deal unless or until it's defeated in the commons. Which way she moves after that depends who is held most responsible for the defeat. Currently, in the Parliamentary Conservative Party, ERG, Mogg and the hard line Europhobes are being blamed for causing the current crisis, and they're really, really, really pissed of with them and even more angry. I'm not 100% sure yet, because the mood in the constituency parties is more mixed, but, if this deal goes down because of ERG, the move will likely be towards an even softer BREXIT or no BREXIT at all. | |||
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"This is what I think will happen 1. The commons rejects the deal, due to the Dup and the tory head bangers voting against 2. Labour then table a vote of no confidence in the government. The head bangers and DUP fall back in to line and the vote is defeated 3. The government makes a show of asking the EU for a revised deal and the EU tells them to fuck off. 4. The markets plummet and the government talks 24 7 about the horrors of no deal. 5.enough Labour mps are spooked to vote through the deal when the government returns it to the commons 6. The brexiteers breathe a sigh of relief, safe in the knowledge that they can carry on shouting "betrayal" whilst being absolved of all responsibility. " About sums it up :0) | |||
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"This is what I think will happen 1. The commons rejects the deal, due to the Dup and the tory head bangers voting against 2. Labour then table a vote of no confidence in the government. The head bangers and DUP fall back in to line and the vote is defeated 3. The government makes a show of asking the EU for a revised deal and the EU tells them to fuck off. 4. The markets plummet and the government talks 24 7 about the horrors of no deal. 5.enough Labour mps are spooked to vote through the deal when the government returns it to the commons 6. The brexiteers breathe a sigh of relief, safe in the knowledge that they can carry on shouting "betrayal" whilst being absolved of all responsibility. " Scary but true. | |||
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"For the DUP to take the gamble, they need to be sure a United ireland can’t come about under labour either. As it stands no one has offered credible solutions which will also get through the EU. " Do you not Understand the significance of the 1997 G.F.A ? There is Nothing Labour Conservative Fianna Fail or Fine Gael can do about it. Both sides of the table agreed to let the majority of the the 6 counties to decide the future. Interestingly that majority will change in 2021 , probably just around the time brexit is finally done & dusted . March 2019 + 2 or 3 years to set up new trade deals . | |||
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"Appears to be a " coalition of chaos " The DUP are playing with fire. They don't represent the majority view in NI and they've shown how politically inept they are by failing to get Stormont up and functioning. I don't support May or her government, but I hate the idea that 10 creationist headcases wield so much power over the whole of the UK" | |||
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