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"So in the last few weeks we have heard from Nissan, Toyota, JLR, BMW and Vauxhall The thing is I thought were they not of those sectors the government told them they would get a special deal done for .... But according to Bernard Jenkins he knows better than the whole car manufacturing sector " They will drop corporation tax to compensate for the tarrifs. However that only "part solves" the problem - delays in customs will be what the real problem is together with rules regarding origin. | |||
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"delays in customs will be what the real problem is together with rules regarding origin." No, the real problem will be that all parts and manufacturing in the UK will no longer be EU origin and that could well make all cars assembled in the UK no longer qualify as EU goods and therefore not be covered by EU trade agreements and subject to WTO tariffs. | |||
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"The head of Nissan UK said "We are preparing for the worst, but I do not want to tell you how we are preparing because you will say I am trying to scare people." Is he lying? Is this more project fear? Or do the 30,000 employed in the North East in Nissan and its supply chain need to start preparing for redundancies as Nissan transfer EU production and production that relies on EU trade deals out of the UK? Do the workers in Toyota and its supply chain in Swindon have to make similar preparations? And does the same fate await the Ford engine plant in South Wales?" Shame its honda in swindon not toyota but hey why let simple things get in the way of hysteria. How much do you think it would cost all these car firms to pay off uk workers, add in all the costs of planning new factories, the cost of planning and building them the cost of training a new workforce etc etc, they will still have contracts with uk component suppliers so would have to pay tariffs on them to new eu factories until those contracts expire, how long will it take to get these new factories up and running ? Then they need to calculate the Tariffs they will have to pay to enter our market against any they would pay to sell into the EU from here, add in the currency benefit we have currently and it is not difficult to see why they wont actually leave, plus of course UK car plants nissan exports to 160 different countries so are well used to tariffs Do they want to pay any extra costs, of course not so will make as much noise as they can to avoid it, but of course its not the UK that wants to impose tariffs is it | |||
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"There will always be some pressure applied by interest groups, whether they be investors, industrialists or politicos. Once Brexit takes effect, we will see what comes of this. My personal view is that while some investment may be diverted, other investors will decide to invest. Whether that balances or not, only time will tell. I would fully expect that some industries want an open door for the ease of movement of goods. Thus they may want to consider their future investment plans. However,I would also expect that there are some investors in the EU who would benefit from moving to external projects and the EIB have already outlined some concerns about this. My only fear is that constant sniping may undermine both sides and investment may be moved away from the EU and UK until the situation is deemed financially stable." It is possible that if some car companies move out they could move outside of the EU to where costs are much cheaper IE china, why build a new plant in europe where costs are much higher if you can invest the same of more likely far less in a new factory china or india and build each car for less, remainers seem to think we will lose out to europe, perhaps the EU need to think they would lose out to as all the components that we import wont be going to china or india | |||
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"The head of Nissan UK said "We are preparing for the worst, but I do not want to tell you how we are preparing because you will say I am trying to scare people." Is he lying? Is this more project fear? Or do the 30,000 employed in the North East in Nissan and its supply chain need to start preparing for redundancies as Nissan transfer EU production and production that relies on EU trade deals out of the UK? Do the workers in Toyota and its supply chain in Swindon have to make similar preparations? And does the same fate await the Ford engine plant in South Wales? Shame its honda in swindon not toyota but hey why let simple things get in the way of hysteria. How much do you think it would cost all these car firms to pay off uk workers, add in all the costs of planning new factories, the cost of planning and building them the cost of training a new workforce etc etc, they will still have contracts with uk component suppliers so would have to pay tariffs on them to new eu factories until those contracts expire, how long will it take to get these new factories up and running ? Then they need to calculate the Tariffs they will have to pay to enter our market against any they would pay to sell into the EU from here, add in the currency benefit we have currently and it is not difficult to see why they wont actually leave, plus of course UK car plants nissan exports to 160 different countries so are well used to tariffs Do they want to pay any extra costs, of course not so will make as much noise as they can to avoid it, but of course its not the UK that wants to impose tariffs is it" but the tariffs would have to be imposed under those lovely WTO rules... so lets have a look at some of those, and look where parts come from... take nissan..... basically there are a couple of exceptions you are looking at a 5% on car parts, of which 85% of those are imported, 10% on the finished cars of with 55% of those are exported to the EU...... either way it basically mean higher car prices regardless, because the car companies are not going to eat those tariffs.... and if it gets to the point where is it cheaper to build in the EU and ship to the UK, than the other way round.... nissan will move, simple as! | |||
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"Mexico, Slovakia and China will soon become the World powerhouses for Automotive production. High wage countries will lose ground to these three. " funny enough not so much mexico now.... under the terms of the new USMCA, 75% of any car made under the agreement must be made by an autoworker earning at least $16us per hour...... basically trump put it in there to stop US carworkers wages going thru the floor and losing business to mexico... but what it may do is the opposite and increase mexican wages... either way.. again.... cars are going to end up costing more.... | |||
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"Shame its honda in swindon not toyota but hey why let simple things get in the way of hysteria. How much do you think it would cost all these car firms to pay off uk workers, add in all the costs of planning new factories, the cost of planning and building them the cost of training a new workforce etc etc, they will still have contracts with uk component suppliers so would have to pay tariffs on them to new eu factories until those contracts expire, how long will it take to get these new factories up and running ? Then they need to calculate the Tariffs they will have to pay to enter our market against any they would pay to sell into the EU from here, add in the currency benefit we have currently and it is not difficult to see why they wont actually leave, plus of course UK car plants nissan exports to 160 different countries so are well used to tariffs Do they want to pay any extra costs, of course not so will make as much noise as they can to avoid it, but of course its not the UK that wants to impose tariffs is it" You are of course right it is Honda in Swindon (I had forgotten them), Toyota is outside Derby (I had forgotten that factory too).  Guess that just puts more jobs at risk. Seems to me that there are a lot of people working on the premiss that the UK is too important and too big an economy for these multinationals to up sticks and walk away from. Problem is I believe that view is only valid while the UK remains inside the EU with its 'special' opt-outs. That changes on 30 March and then the UK market is only worth domestic sales and that could well have a dramatic effect on the UK economy. That of course being the reality of the cliff that everyone talks about. Fact is the vast majority of UK production in all fields is for export, and those exports are under the auspices of the EU, when that stops all bets are off and I believe that every multinational will already have well advanced plans for relocation of all non domestic business if there is a hard brexit. That so many still refuse to even acknowledge that this is a possibility is even more frightening than the possibility of a complete economic crash. | |||
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"The head of Nissan UK said "We are preparing for the worst, but I do not want to tell you how we are preparing because you will say I am trying to scare people." Is he lying? Is this more project fear? Or do the 30,000 employed in the North East in Nissan and its supply chain need to start preparing for redundancies as Nissan transfer EU production and production that relies on EU trade deals out of the UK? Do the workers in Toyota and its supply chain in Swindon have to make similar preparations? And does the same fate await the Ford engine plant in South Wales? Shame its honda in swindon not toyota but hey why let simple things get in the way of hysteria. How much do you think it would cost all these car firms to pay off uk workers, add in all the costs of planning new factories, the cost of planning and building them the cost of training a new workforce etc etc, they will still have contracts with uk component suppliers so would have to pay tariffs on them to new eu factories until those contracts expire, how long will it take to get these new factories up and running ? Then they need to calculate the Tariffs they will have to pay to enter our market against any they would pay to sell into the EU from here, add in the currency benefit we have currently and it is not difficult to see why they wont actually leave, plus of course UK car plants nissan exports to 160 different countries so are well used to tariffs Do they want to pay any extra costs, of course not so will make as much noise as they can to avoid it, but of course its not the UK that wants to impose tariffs is it but the tariffs would have to be imposed under those lovely WTO rules... so lets have a look at some of those, and look where parts come from... take nissan..... basically there are a couple of exceptions you are looking at a 5% on car parts, of which 85% of those are imported, 10% on the finished cars of with 55% of those are exported to the EU...... either way it basically mean higher car prices regardless, because the car companies are not going to eat those tariffs.... and if it gets to the point where is it cheaper to build in the EU and ship to the UK, than the other way round.... nissan will move, simple as!" Not sure where youre looking but the newcastle chronicle say that they currently use 40% uk sourced parts and that is being increased, is it the same source you used to claim uk drivers would need an IDP for every eu country instead of one that covers almost all the world ? AS remainers love to claim the pound is down around 10% which wipes out the extra the tariff adds. I do agree that IF it becomes cheaper to build elsewhere they will go, but IMVHO it wont be to europe it will be india or china, tarifs worldwide are being lowered with more trade deals that will mean high cost eu production is doomed long term, nissan et al will know that and go low cost | |||
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"Shame its honda in swindon not toyota but hey why let simple things get in the way of hysteria. How much do you think it would cost all these car firms to pay off uk workers, add in all the costs of planning new factories, the cost of planning and building them the cost of training a new workforce etc etc, they will still have contracts with uk component suppliers so would have to pay tariffs on them to new eu factories until those contracts expire, how long will it take to get these new factories up and running ? Then they need to calculate the Tariffs they will have to pay to enter our market against any they would pay to sell into the EU from here, add in the currency benefit we have currently and it is not difficult to see why they wont actually leave, plus of course UK car plants nissan exports to 160 different countries so are well used to tariffs Do they want to pay any extra costs, of course not so will make as much noise as they can to avoid it, but of course its not the UK that wants to impose tariffs is it You are of course right it is Honda in Swindon (I had forgotten them), Toyota is outside Derby (I had forgotten that factory too). Guess that just puts more jobs at risk. Seems to me that there are a lot of people working on the premiss that the UK is too important and too big an economy for these multinationals to up sticks and walk away from. Problem is I believe that view is only valid while the UK remains inside the EU with its 'special' opt-outs. That changes on 30 March and then the UK market is only worth domestic sales and that could well have a dramatic effect on the UK economy. That of course being the reality of the cliff that everyone talks about. Fact is the vast majority of UK production in all fields is for export, and those exports are under the auspices of the EU, when that stops all bets are off and I believe that every multinational will already have well advanced plans for relocation of all non domestic business if there is a hard brexit. That so many still refuse to even acknowledge that this is a possibility is even more frightening than the possibility of a complete economic crash."Its not ignoring the possibility, its knowing that every business all the time looks at cost reduction and will use every tactic to persuade gvernments to reduce their costs if they can, this is no different, if some move they will go where its cheapest and for most that isnt going to be mainland europe unless they have capacity to increase production within existing assets, nissan have a factory in spain but it is small compared to the uk's I doubt they could up production to fill their eu wide needs without huge investment, why invest billions there when for far less they could build in asia with cost reductions that far outweigh any eu tariffs and a huge growing market on the door step, | |||
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"There we go, the implicit message is: All is well provided the jobs don't go to Europe. Just as the implicit message is all pain is acceptable provided the remoaners get their share or more because its really all their fault..." Where did I say all is well if the jobs dont go to europe or all is well if remainers share the pain? I note you havent tried to argue the point about where tey will move IF they move, I dont believe they at the end of the day they will go anywhere, but I bet they will be looking hard at asia for future production plants, wherever car production is in europe costs will need to fall to keep the jobs | |||
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"The head of Nissan UK said "We are preparing for the worst, but I do not want to tell you how we are preparing because you will say I am trying to scare people." Is he lying? Is this more project fear? Or do the 30,000 employed in the North East in Nissan and its supply chain need to start preparing for redundancies as Nissan transfer EU production and production that relies on EU trade deals out of the UK? Do the workers in Toyota and its supply chain in Swindon have to make similar preparations? And does the same fate await the Ford engine plant in South Wales? Shame its honda in swindon not toyota but hey why let simple things get in the way of hysteria. How much do you think it would cost all these car firms to pay off uk workers, add in all the costs of planning new factories, the cost of planning and building them the cost of training a new workforce etc etc, they will still have contracts with uk component suppliers so would have to pay tariffs on them to new eu factories until those contracts expire, how long will it take to get these new factories up and running ? Then they need to calculate the Tariffs they will have to pay to enter our market against any they would pay to sell into the EU from here, add in the currency benefit we have currently and it is not difficult to see why they wont actually leave, plus of course UK car plants nissan exports to 160 different countries so are well used to tariffs Do they want to pay any extra costs, of course not so will make as much noise as they can to avoid it, but of course its not the UK that wants to impose tariffs is it but the tariffs would have to be imposed under those lovely WTO rules... so lets have a look at some of those, and look where parts come from... take nissan..... basically there are a couple of exceptions you are looking at a 5% on car parts, of which 85% of those are imported, 10% on the finished cars of with 55% of those are exported to the EU...... either way it basically mean higher car prices regardless, because the car companies are not going to eat those tariffs.... and if it gets to the point where is it cheaper to build in the EU and ship to the UK, than the other way round.... nissan will move, simple as! Not sure where youre looking but the newcastle chronicle say that they currently use 40% uk sourced parts and that is being increased, is it the same source you used to claim uk drivers would need an IDP for every eu country instead of one that covers almost all the world ? AS remainers love to claim the pound is down around 10% which wipes out the extra the tariff adds. I do agree that IF it becomes cheaper to build elsewhere they will go, but IMVHO it wont be to europe it will be india or china, tarifs worldwide are being lowered with more trade deals that will mean high cost eu production is doomed long term, nissan et al will know that and go low cost" well i got my figures from the long read article in the guardian today, who seem to have gotten their figures from the 2016/17 nissan annual report.... the actual article is actually worth a read if you have 5/10 minutes, it is very well written https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/oct/04/will-nissan-stay-once-britain-leaves-sunderland-brexit-business-dilemma | |||
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"This can all be processed logically by looking backwards. U.K. auto manufacturing all but disssppeared in the 1970’s because it was not possible to build cars profitably in splendid isolation. Roll forwards and international manufacturers set up shop in the U.K. with modern construction techniques and in many cases chose the U.K. for a number of reasons many of which are interconnected. 1) Educated and skilled work force 2) Access to the Single Market and therefore common regulatory alignment between the manufacturers location and the selling market. 3) seamless transport links to take advantage of modern “just in time” manufacturing techniques. 4) common customs area with zero tariffs to enable utilisation of plants in various countries within the market to capitalise on scaling savings and the subsequent ability to then supply other plants because of (3) above. If we leave the Single Market and Customs Union then the only benefit left is (1) - which is exactly what it was when the auto industry last left. Yes - it might not be “that bad” but very recent history suggests that the consequences of adding complications to an already complex manufacturing process is probably not a good idea." you forgot the fucking massivly colossal bungs from taxpayers money to get them to locate in shitholes .... the bungs are drying up ... | |||
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"How much do you think it would cost all these car firms to pay off uk workers, add in all the costs of planning new factories, the cost of planning and building them the cost of training a new workforce etc etc, they will still have contracts with uk component suppliers so would have to pay tariffs on them to new eu factories until those contracts expire, how long will it take to get these new factories up and running ? " There's spare capacity all over the EU, then there's the contract factories like Magna and Nedcar (who are currently assembling good old British Minis) " Then they need to calculate the Tariffs they will have to pay to enter our market against any they would pay to sell into the EU from here, add in the currency benefit we have currently and it is not difficult to see why they wont actually leave, plus of course UK car plants nissan exports to 160 different countries so are well used to tariffs" Every single vehicle that leaves Sunderland is owned by NISA, NMM UK exports only to Switzerland no where else, the car might leave Sunderland and arrive in Paris or Berlin or Amsterdam but it is exported to Switzerland " Mexico, Slovakia and China will soon become the World powerhouses for Automotive production. High wage countries will lose ground to these three." Algeria and Morocco seem to be the new go to sites | |||
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"There we go, the implicit message is: All is well provided the jobs don't go to Europe. Just as the implicit message is all pain is acceptable provided the remoaners get their share or more because its really all their fault... Where did I say all is well if the jobs dont go to europe or all is well if remainers share the pain? I note you havent tried to argue the point about where tey will move IF they move, I dont believe they at the end of the day they will go anywhere, but I bet they will be looking hard at asia for future production plants, wherever car production is in europe costs will need to fall to keep the jobs " The jobs wont go overnight, but they will go. Nissan for example make each plant compete to be allocated each new model. Sunderland has won the last two competitions. It wont ever win another one if we have a hard Brexit as the cost of tariffs will wipe out it's advantage over other plants in the Nissan family Interestingly too, the head of Mercedes said that they had been negotiating with Nissan Sunderland for them to assemble Mercedes vehicles. Merc pulled out of those discussions after the referendum. | |||
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"Well, we're doing our bit for the UK....just bought two UK made cars. "Comprising an assemblage of parts from all over the EU | |||
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"Well, we're doing our bit for the UK....just bought two UK made cars.
Comprising an assemblage of parts from all over the EU"Your point being? | |||
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"The head of Nissan UK said "We are preparing for the worst, but I do not want to tell you how we are preparing because you will say I am trying to scare people." Is he lying? Is this more project fear? Or do the 30,000 employed in the North East in Nissan and its supply chain need to start preparing for redundancies as Nissan transfer EU production and production that relies on EU trade deals out of the UK? Do the workers in Toyota and its supply chain in Swindon have to make similar preparations? And does the same fate await the Ford engine plant in South Wales?" Sure they are just thieving capitalist scum anyway, burn the plants to the ground  | |||
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"Well, we're doing our bit for the UK....just bought two UK made cars.
Comprising an assemblage of parts from all over the EU
Your point being?"That the UK car industry is inextricably linked to a wider market for parts. Where a car was assembled is no measure of how british the components are. | |||
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"Well, we're doing our bit for the UK....just bought two UK made cars.
Comprising an assemblage of parts from all over the EU
Your point being?"Point being that unless you bought a Morgan or a mclaren... it’s likely your UK assembled car has a shed load of those dang foreign bits in it... .. and the profits are going to Japan... or America... or France or Germany  | |||
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"Well, we're doing our bit for the UK....just bought two UK made cars.
Comprising an assemblage of parts from all over the EU
Your point being?
Point being that unless you bought a Morgan or a mclaren... it’s likely your UK assembled car has a shed load of those dang foreign bits in it... .. and the profits are going to Japan... or America... or France or Germany "Ah, right, so you're saying anyone who buys a car made in Britain would be better off buying a car made in Germany, or France, orJapan..... Nice of you to supporttge Britush economy and actively promote jibs going abroad.... Well done you! | |||
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"Well, we're doing our bit for the UK....just bought two UK made cars.
Comprising an assemblage of parts from all over the EU
Your point being?
That the UK car industry is inextricably linked to a wider market for parts. Where a car was assembled is no measure of how british the components are. "Every industry, everywhere, is linked to a 'wider market'. It's called trade, and the global economy....or haven't you realised that? | |||
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"Well, we're doing our bit for the UK....just bought two UK made cars.
Comprising an assemblage of parts from all over the EU
Your point being?
That the UK car industry is inextricably linked to a wider market for parts. Where a car was assembled is no measure of how british the components are.
Every industry, everywhere, is linked to a 'wider market'. It's called trade, and the global economy....or haven't you realised that?"Tell Donald Trump that and he'll give you "America first". We had backing Britain in the 1970's - which incidentally didn't work - so post brexit perhaps you can explain how Global Britain is going to get the best deals? US, China & India are going to walk all over us! Even Liam Fox is covering his arse now saying it's going to be difficult! | |||
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"Well, we're doing our bit for the UK....just bought two UK made cars.
Comprising an assemblage of parts from all over the EU
Your point being?
Point being that unless you bought a Morgan or a mclaren... it’s likely your UK assembled car has a shed load of those dang foreign bits in it... .. and the profits are going to Japan... or America... or France or Germany
Ah, right, so you're saying anyone who buys a car made in Britain would be better off buying a car made in Germany, or France, orJapan.....
Nice of you to supporttge Britush economy and actively promote jibs going abroad....
Well done you!"nope.... whats i am saying is that you are crowing about a) buying a UK Car which probably isn't as "UK" as you'd like to think it is.... b) the Profit from said "UK Car" aren't actually staying in the UK.... its going abroad! anyway glad you got your "UK Car" now... smart move!! if you had waited till next april to buy it, it would have been likely more expensive then as all those nasty foreign bits they needed for said car would have gone up in price because of those lovely WTO tarriffs...... | |||
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" Even Liam Fox is covering his arse now saying it's going to be difficult! " he's 99.99% arse .... so that's a fuck of alot of coverage needed right there | |||
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"Well, we're doing our bit for the UK....just bought two UK made cars.
Comprising an assemblage of parts from all over the EU
Your point being?
That the UK car industry is inextricably linked to a wider market for parts. Where a car was assembled is no measure of how british the components are.
Every industry, everywhere, is linked to a 'wider market'. It's called trade, and the global economy....or haven't you realised that?"Thanks for the Economics 101 lesson. I understand perfectly well how these things work but thanks for your patronising reply | |||
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