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Another financial crash?

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

So the last week has been full of subtle stories hinting at the beginning of a new crash

A story in the guardian by Gordon Brown I think, and a report on it by the Financial times, and now reflections on the Crash this morning on all major news networks

Does anyone think this is the case and can anyone more economically literate explain potentially why this may happen?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Briefly, my take on it is that; countries and national banks are moving to a form of self protection. There isn't the capacity in the global banking sector to bail out banks with an international concensus...

In others words.. if a government refuses to bail out the UK arm of a global bank expecting the parent company to bail it out and another country to take the hit... It's more likely to cause contagion.

Personally, of have preferred UI government to nationalise the private household and UK business debt then let the investment arm go bust... But then I'm suggestion the exact problem Mr Brown is highlighting

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I have said for 2 years that it is coming ,the economy has not grown and house hold debt is at higher levels than 10 years ago ,yes paper wealth is being created again ,the banks haven’t learnt ,prepare yourselves ....

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Household debt isn't directly a problem, if the debt is linked to a larger asset people will naturslly try and pay it off and if defaulted on the lender can profit.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Household debt isn't directly a problem, if the debt is linked to a larger asset people will naturslly try and pay it off and if defaulted on the lender can profit.

"

Your right ,I just think there is far too much unsecured debt that people are not able to pay off ,because the economy isn’t growing ,wages are not growing .There is only full employment because of the gif economy ...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

The scary thing is government debt - not just the UK but the world. It's just waiting for one to break and then the domino effect begins. Believe it or not the US government debt is growing at an alarming rate - the US caused the last crash and it will probably cause the next. The economist who predicted the last crash - 2 years before it happened has said the seeds have already been planted for the next! But experts get it wrong!

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By *wisted999Man
over a year ago

North Bucks

We haven’t learnt from the last one.

Watch the Big Short it explains what happened really well. It also explains how the same old problems have been repackaged.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"We haven’t learnt from the last one.

Watch the Big Short it explains what happened really well. It also explains how the same old problems have been repackaged. "

Agree it was an education watching it - at the end they made a statement it's happening all over again under different name! How many people have been held accountable - 0!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

We are due a dip in the economy, happens every 6-7 years.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"So the last week has been full of subtle stories hinting at the beginning of a new crash

A story in the guardian by Gordon Brown I think, and a report on it by the Financial times, and now reflections on the Crash this morning on all major news networks

Does anyone think this is the case and can anyone more economically literate explain potentially why this may happen?"

Its a great way to make a profit for the financial institutions

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By *anejohnkent6263Couple
over a year ago

canterbury

Can't wait ...time to buy more houses x

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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago

Barbados


"Can't wait ...time to buy more houses x"

Piss on the fire, Jack, my sausages are done!

-Matt

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By *ara JTV/TS
over a year ago

Bristol East

Yes, I read extracts of the Gordon Brown speech.

Whatever people think of him as PM, he did get respect for trying to put together a global response to the financial crash, so he is worth listening to.

I never had any confidence a Conservative administration would fix the sector - the party is the political wing of the City of London, so it won't do anything to spoil the party of greed.

One of Brown's key points is that the global nature of trade and capitalism means the regulation must be global, too.

That requires co-operation, whereas what we are seeing from the leading economy is war.

It does not augur well.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"The scary thing is government debt - not just the UK but the world. It's just waiting for one to break and then the domino effect begins. Believe it or not the US government debt is growing at an alarming rate - the US caused the last crash and it will probably cause the next. The economist who predicted the last crash - 2 years before it happened has said the seeds have already been planted for the next! But experts get it wrong!"

Agree with it all,and I do hope we are wrong !

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Hsve seen a report into debt in America and trouble brewing

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Can't wait ...time to buy more houses x"

Same here. It’s the best time to buy

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Can't wait ...time to buy more houses x

Piss on the fire, Jack, my sausages are done!

-Matt"

Brexit doesn't mean brexit it means ,Fuck you ,I'm ok!

This I can work with.Finally some honesty .

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By *lem-H-FandangoMan
over a year ago

salisbury


"So the last week has been full of subtle stories hinting at the beginning of a new crash

A story in the guardian by Gordon Brown I think, and a report on it by the Financial times, and now reflections on the Crash this morning on all major news networks

Does anyone think this is the case and can anyone more economically literate explain potentially why this may happen?"

It was the anniversary of the crash. Seems logical to cover it in the news......

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

There where lessons to be learned from the last crash and we did mot learn them so it will happen again all over the world.

We blamed the banks and governments but large numbers of people borrowed more and the financial institutions are happy to lend it so the cycle repeats itself,it overheats and boom.

The governments as done little to prevent this the world over because if people think they are doing ok life goes on,sad really

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By *lbert_shlossedMan
over a year ago

Manchester


"We haven’t learnt from the last one.

Watch the Big Short it explains what happened really well. It also explains how the same old problems have been repackaged.

Agree it was an education watching it - at the end they made a statement it's happening all over again under different name! How many people have been held accountable - 0!"
.

Actually you don't agree, just above this post you claim the problem is government debt?.

None of what went on in the big short was government debt, it was private debt, private debt is increasing at alarming levels due to several factors from poor financial regulations to wealth inequality and low wage growth.

They side stepped the private debt problems by passing it on to government debt via QE, the debt still exists but it's now owned by the tax payers instead of private corporations.

There's not many solutions to the problem except a debt jubilee like in the past or you just sit and wait for an almighty crash and don't bail them out, it's the same thing only a debt jubilee is more controlled.

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By *lbert_shlossedMan
over a year ago

Manchester


"Yes, I read extracts of the Gordon Brown speech.

Whatever people think of him as PM, he did get respect for trying to put together a global response to the financial crash, so he is worth listening to.

I never had any confidence a Conservative administration would fix the sector - the party is the political wing of the City of London, so it won't do anything to spoil the party of greed.

One of Brown's key points is that the global nature of trade and capitalism means the regulation must be global, too.

That requires co-operation, whereas what we are seeing from the leading economy is war.

It does not augur well."
.

I think you don't fundamentally understand the nature of capitalism , Gordon brown didn't either, or he did but he just bullshited you with socialist jingo.

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By *riefcase_WankerMan
over a year ago

Milton Keynes

There's an interesting paper by Fred Harrison, who predicted the 2008 crash in I think something like 1993 (even stating the year it would take place), causing people to give him the moniker "Dr Doom" or something - mocking him because during the time of "The Great Moderation" the establishment went so far as to believe they'd figured out the economy and fixed it - "No more boom and bust" said Mr Brown...

His thesis is that there's an 18 year cycle, with a 9 year mini crash in the middle, primarily caused by housing prices. One of the other economists that predicted the crash (though not as early as Harrison) has done quite a lot of interesting research on how it is not government debt that causes these problems (see Japan, which had over 200% debt to GDP ratio yet was stagnant, rather than in freefall) but private debt - linking the same causes to the Great Crash of 1929, drawing on a lot of Irving Fisher's debt deflation theory from that era

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By *lbert_shlossedMan
over a year ago

Manchester

If you took all the money and divided it equally we'd all be worth £2500.

What a utopia!.

Socialists fundamentally fail every single time on economics because there too wrapped up in feelings.

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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago

bournemouth

While it may seem a great idea to tax property instead of income who is going to build and invest in businesses that the vast majority work in?

Just look at Zimbabwe for how things work out when you take from those who invest and give it to those who have no idea how to look long term or the ex communist countries and how shit their industry was, thats not to say capitalism is perfect but the work and invest ethic must be rewarded

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"There's an interesting paper by Fred Harrison, who predicted the 2008 crash in I think something like 1993 (even stating the year it would take place), causing people to give him the moniker "Dr Doom" or something - mocking him because during the time of "The Great Moderation" the establishment went so far as to believe they'd figured out the economy and fixed it - "No more boom and bust" said Mr Brown...

His thesis is that there's an 18 year cycle, with a 9 year mini crash in the middle, primarily caused by housing prices. One of the other economists that predicted the crash (though not as early as Harrison) has done quite a lot of interesting research on how it is not government debt that causes these problems (see Japan, which had over 200% debt to GDP ratio yet was stagnant, rather than in freefall) but private debt - linking the same causes to the Great Crash of 1929, drawing on a lot of Irving Fisher's debt deflation theory from that era"

Sure, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

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By *riefcase_WankerMan
over a year ago

Milton Keynes


"Sure, but even a stopped clock is right twice a day. "

He predicted exactly when it would happen, and the mechanism that would cause it.

I'd say it wasn't just a lucky guess...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Show me his stellar returns since and I'll believe in his powers of prediction, but I'd guess he was just lucky.

Statistically at least one doomsday merchant is going to get the timing right.

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By *riefcase_WankerMan
over a year ago

Milton Keynes


"Show me his stellar returns since and I'll believe in his powers of prediction, but I'd guess he was just lucky.

Statistically at least one doomsday merchant is going to get the timing right. "

You realise he's an economist, not an investor or trader, right?

This argument is so facile it's not even worth explaining how bad it is

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By *anejohnkent6263Couple
over a year ago

canterbury

Best advice I've ever had ....invest in bricks/mortar for long term....spend and save in equal measures ....and when the prices drop buy buy buy ....only use cash because u see where and what u spending it on ....plastic cards are the evil of the world .

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By *obka3Couple
over a year ago

bournemouth


"Show me his stellar returns since and I'll believe in his powers of prediction, but I'd guess he was just lucky.

Statistically at least one doomsday merchant is going to get the timing right.

You realise he's an economist, not an investor or trader, right?

This argument is so facile it's not even worth explaining how bad it is"

So why didnt he put his money where his mouth was

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Show me his stellar returns since and I'll believe in his powers of prediction, but I'd guess he was just lucky.

Statistically at least one doomsday merchant is going to get the timing right.

You realise he's an economist, not an investor or trader, right?

This argument is so facile it's not even worth explaining how bad it is"

These guys are ten a penny...it's easy to forecast that something is fucked long term based on fundamentals but to get the timing right of when the house of cards will tumble through skill is very very very hard

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By *riefcase_WankerMan
over a year ago

Milton Keynes


"Show me his stellar returns since and I'll believe in his powers of prediction, but I'd guess he was just lucky.

Statistically at least one doomsday merchant is going to get the timing right.

You realise he's an economist, not an investor or trader, right?

This argument is so facile it's not even worth explaining how bad it is

So why didnt he put his money where his mouth was"

Maybe he did and we just don't know it? Maybe he didn't because money isn't a primary motivator for him?

Maybe - actually, *definitely* - this is just a whole load of irrelevant bollocks.

How much money did Adam Smith make? David Ricardo? Ludwig von Mises? Milton Friedman?

Who the fuck cares?

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

The world isn't particularly strong atm and the UK is especially in a weak position for a number of reasons. Most people aren't earning more than 10 years ago but their cost of living has increased - that's not a particularly strong foundation for a country at a population level.

The UK has benefited from the world's largest number of trade agreements whilst it's been in the EU - it's about to lose them, increasing business costs, potential cost of living etc.

Business uncertainty also pose risks to the UK's credit rating- potentially jeopardizing future opportunities as well as financial stability.

There's perceived substantial potential for UK debt and housing market price level problems. Employment level uncertainty risks the UK faltering on widespread borrowing, at a time when business investment and location in the UK is perceived by markets as troublesome.

From a personal perspective, the government hasn't delivered much if any tangible reason for there to be higher confidence levels anywhere. It's pursuing unknown higher risk options, whilst depressing opportunities and confidence by its flagrant split in fighting and leaving everything until the last minute, which smacks of impoverished financial acumen.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral


"Best advice I've ever had ....invest in bricks/mortar for long term....spend and save in equal measures ....and when the prices drop buy buy buy ....only use cash because u see where and what u spending it on ....plastic cards are the evil of the world .

"
Very wise and true

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Markets never move in straight lines and always have corrections.They are not "engineered" by anyone but are what happens.Same as nature,things build up and decay.The seasons change,night follows day.No point wingeing about it, you just have to be prepared.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Markets never move in straight lines and always have corrections.They are not "engineered" by anyone but are what happens.Same as nature,things build up and decay.The seasons change,night follows day.No point wingeing about it, you just have to be prepared."

??

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"The scary thing is government debt - not just the UK but the world. It's just waiting for one to break and then the domino effect begins. Believe it or not the US government debt is growing at an alarming rate - the US caused the last crash and it will probably cause the next. The economist who predicted the last crash - 2 years before it happened has said the seeds have already been planted for the next! But experts get it wrong!"

Or Italy, we'll find out in October when they have to negotiate their budget spending for 2019 with the EU

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Markets never move in straight lines and always have corrections.They are not "engineered" by anyone but are what happens.Same as nature,things build up and decay.The seasons change,night follows day.No point wingeing about it, you just have to be prepared.

??"

Markets are definitely engineered by central banks and governments. It's all about their attempts to control inflation.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Nobody in government, regardless of nationality has ever learned from all the previous crashes the world has lived through, or we wouldn't be looking into the abyss of another crash.

American debt is forecast to hit $50 trillion by 2030

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral


"Nobody in government, regardless of nationality has ever learned from all the previous crashes the world has lived through, or we wouldn't be looking into the abyss of another crash.

American debt is forecast to hit $50 trillion by 2030"
So very true and the same goes for economic so called experts and bankers etc

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"We are due a dip in the economy, happens every 6-7 years."

I think it's a correction of marker in good sense, just splitting share when it becomes big, and U.S. market is in huge debt but will not crash, they will wage war to correct after 2008 and Iraq war gave them breathing space and much needed oil for them and control over price to their slaves Arabs

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"We are due a dip in the economy, happens every 6-7 years.

I think it's a correction of marker in good sense, just splitting share when it becomes big, and U.S. market is in huge debt but will not crash, they will wage war to correct after 2008 and Iraq war gave them breathing space and much needed oil for them and control over price to their slaves Arabs"

Many people have gone bankrupt betting on a cyclical dip - it's well late - history mimics but doesn't repeat itself

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