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The Greek Problem

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By *ercury OP   Man
over a year ago

Grantham

Reports this morning that the Greek economy has shrunk 25-30% in the last year.

How does this drop, which is greater than that of the 30s depression in the USA, fit in with the greater EU model?

What is the solution? Is there a solution?

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By *lik and PaulCouple
over a year ago

Flagrante

Don't know too much about the current level of the problem but carrying on from last year they had 3 choices from memory...

1. EU keeps bailing them out

2. Greece breaches EU rules and is allowed to do so

3. Greece leaves EU

Nor sure which is the best option but they can't go on as they are.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

They could have paid thier taxes

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By *otlovefun42Couple
over a year ago

Costa Blanca Spain...


"Don't know too much about the current level of the problem but carrying on from last year they had 3 choices from memory...

1. EU keeps bailing them out

2. Greece breaches EU rules and is allowed to do so

3. Greece leaves EU

Nor sure which is the best option but they can't go on as they are.

"

In the short term number one is the most likely but even the most die hard Euro fanatic must know it can't go on forever..

Number two will never (officially) happen. Although there does seem to be a few "blind eyes" being turned.

Number three isn't necessary however dropping the Euro and going back to the Drachma is still a possibility and probably the only real long term solution as it will allow the Greeks to devalue themselves out of the shit.

Short term pain for long term gain.

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By *onnie and JohnCouple
over a year ago

WILTSHIRE

Having first hand experience of the Greek austerity measures, their is no easy answer, many young Greeks have moved away for a better life, as to any more EU bail outs they would only pay the crippling interest on the last loans.

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By *entaur_UKMan
over a year ago

Cannock

The EU and the Euro are destroying Greece. I bet they wished they never joined.

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West

Let's not lose sight of the fact that the Greeks themselves cooked their own books as means to join the Euro.

A bit like faking your income to get a mortgage and then blaming the bank because you can't afford the payments.

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By *onnie and JohnCouple
over a year ago

WILTSHIRE


"Let's not lose sight of the fact that the Greeks themselves cooked their own books as means to join the Euro.

A bit like faking your income to get a mortgage and then blaming the bank because you can't afford the payments. "

yep, but image the size of the brown envelope someone within the EU got.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Let's not lose sight of the fact that the Greeks themselves cooked their own books as means to join the Euro.

A bit like faking your income to get a mortgage and then blaming the bank because you can't afford the payments. "
.

What all the Greek people got together and faked their books so they could have ten years of cheap credit and then collapse the economy and have mass suicides and desertion by the under 30s?.

.

Oh yeah I never thought of that... It's sooo the Greeks fault

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By *otlovefun42Couple
over a year ago

Costa Blanca Spain...


"Let's not lose sight of the fact that the Greeks themselves cooked their own books as means to join the Euro.

A bit like faking your income to get a mortgage and then blaming the bank because you can't afford the payments. "

That is generally accepted as being true. It is also generally accepted that the EU knew only too well what was happening and chose to ignore it.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

The only solution is to go back to the Drachma, the same thing happened to Argentina when their currency was tied to the American dollar. As soon as they went back to the Peso things improved dramatically. It is time that the EU admitted that the political Euro experiment has been a huge mistake for half the continent

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"The only solution is to go back to the Drachma, the same thing happened to Argentina when their currency was tied to the American dollar. As soon as they went back to the Peso things improved dramatically. It is time that the EU admitted that the political Euro experiment has been a huge mistake for half the continent"
.

Politically that's never going to happen for two reasons.

One it will set a chain reaction of other lower country's that will follow which will just cripple the European banks that have just been bailed out for tens of billions.

Two it would cause the euro exchange price to rise massively which would cripple German industry.

.

The solution is the one that's least politically acceptable.... Germany will have to pay some of the Greeks debt and obviously the others that will follow

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"The only solution is to go back to the Drachma, the same thing happened to Argentina when their currency was tied to the American dollar. As soon as they went back to the Peso things improved dramatically. It is time that the EU admitted that the political Euro experiment has been a huge mistake for half the continent.

Politically that's never going to happen for two reasons.

One it will set a chain reaction of other lower country's that will follow which will just cripple the European banks that have just been bailed out for tens of billions.

Two it would cause the euro exchange price to rise massively which would cripple German industry.

.

The solution is the one that's least politically acceptable.... Germany will have to pay some of the Greeks debt and obviously the others that will follow"

You could be right but your average German won't be happy with that and it's just papering over the cracks anyway. Until countries can control their own fiscal policies things will never improve

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"The only solution is to go back to the Drachma, the same thing happened to Argentina when their currency was tied to the American dollar. As soon as they went back to the Peso things improved dramatically. It is time that the EU admitted that the political Euro experiment has been a huge mistake for half the continent.

Politically that's never going to happen for two reasons.

One it will set a chain reaction of other lower country's that will follow which will just cripple the European banks that have just been bailed out for tens of billions.

Two it would cause the euro exchange price to rise massively which would cripple German industry.

.

The solution is the one that's least politically acceptable.... Germany will have to pay some of the Greeks debt and obviously the others that will follow

You could be right but your average German won't be happy with that and it's just papering over the cracks anyway. Until countries can control their own fiscal policies things will never improve"
.

It's worse than that.

The Germans are exporters of goods and importers of money, pretty much all the rest are reverse(we import goods and export money)including us.... There all going to need debt to buy the German goods?... Now if that's not possible and if I were Germany I'd think about getting out now while the going is good and move on to your next victim, I mean market... Small countries like Greece can and do fail with few secondary problems, big country's like Germany on the other hand, they've got serious long term problems because there market is massively in debt and can no longer afford German products and that's with a cheap currency like the euro with the all the basket cases in it!.

How much will an Audi cost if they get rid of Greece, Portugal, Cyprus... Spain even?... Your not going to sell many BMWs at 50k pounds for the base model

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West


"The only solution is to go back to the Drachma, the same thing happened to Argentina when their currency was tied to the American dollar. As soon as they went back to the Peso things improved dramatically. It is time that the EU admitted that the political Euro experiment has been a huge mistake for half the continent"

I actually agree that the Greeks should exit the Eurozone and just take on the chin the immediate and catastrophic effects - but at least after that, things should get slowly better.

Alternatively, maybe they could take up a transitional arrangement running with two currencies for a while. The Drachma will be worth FA internationally but maybe internally people could use it day to day whilst the govt deals with the devaluation against the Euro and their loan committments with a more longer term strategy.

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By *isandreTV/TS
over a year ago

Durham

The German Finance Minister as much as admitted much of the debt would ultimately have to be forgiven so the should just get on and do it now.

You are right though, the long term solution is for them, or Germany, to leave the Euro.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

There is another solution?.

Germany could in effect quadruple it's payments to the EU and then the EU could finance Greek problem areas....A bit like err one country....ein volk ein euro ein Reich?

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By *ercury OP   Man
over a year ago

Grantham


"The German Finance Minister as much as admitted much of the debt would ultimately have to be forgiven so the should just get on and do it now.

You are right though, the long term solution is for them, or Germany, to leave the Euro."

But they won't do that before the German elections later this year.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Oh wait.... That was Martin bormans big plan all along

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Interestingly enough the third Reich only managed to smash 25% of the Greek GDP between 39-45...I must say they've done much better this time

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By *isandreTV/TS
over a year ago

Durham


"The German Finance Minister as much as admitted much of the debt would ultimately have to be forgiven so the should just get on and do it now.

You are right though, the long term solution is for them, or Germany, to leave the Euro.

But they won't do that before the German elections later this year.

"

No, a sure vote loser for anyone who suggests it.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Don't mention the war ...I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it

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By *ercury OP   Man
over a year ago

Grantham


"Don't mention the war ...I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it"

Believe me, there are many places in Greece where Germans are still not welcomed.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral


"Reports this morning that the Greek economy has shrunk 25-30% in the last year.

How does this drop, which is greater than that of the 30s depression in the USA, fit in with the greater EU model?

What is the solution? Is there a solution?"
Yes they should leave the EU and sue them for destroying there economy.Well that is the theory if impossible I know,but proves it is right for us to leave.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral


"Interestingly enough the third Reich only managed to smash 25% of the Greek GDP between 39-45...I must say they've done much better this time"
Like it

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By *illwill69uMan
over a year ago

moston

There really is no Greek problem.

But there is an ECB problem.

The ECB's problem is that it is refusing to let Greece become bankrupt. Until the ECB discovers its balls and stops supporting states that are continually and deliberately running unsustainable budgets then the likes of Greece will continue to exploit that weakness. There have been similar situations in the USA, notably New York in the 70. It was not until the money stream was turned off that the city addressed its problems. The same goes for Greece.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"There really is no Greek problem.

But there is an ECB problem.

The ECB's problem is that it is refusing to let Greece become bankrupt. Until the ECB discovers its balls and stops supporting states that are continually and deliberately running unsustainable budgets then the likes of Greece will continue to exploit that weakness. There have been similar situations in the USA, notably New York in the 70. It was not until the money stream was turned off that the city addressed its problems. The same goes for Greece."
.

That's not quite true though.

NY city doesn't and never did have a printing press where as Greece did and used it alot until the Germans locked it up in a cupboard in Frankfurt, with the implicit instructions that they should run the same fiscal policy as Germany.... Which would work out just dandy if Greece was a major exporter like Germany?.

However they weren't aren't and have never been, the only thing that ever held them in check was interest rates on borrowings (historically about 20-25%) and how much they could devalue the drachma by..... It's like night follows day.... Unless your in a monetary union with Germany

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Oh and the reason they were reluctant to let the Greeks go bankrupt?.... Err they owed alot of it to Deutsch bank and social general.

In fact most of the so called debt relief that most of you keep taking about?.

It went to Greece and then straight to those two banks, in effect they were actually bailing out there own banks and not Greece

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By *illwill69uMan
over a year ago

moston


"That's not quite true though.

NY city doesn't and never did have a printing press where as Greece did and used it alot until the Germans locked it up in a cupboard in Frankfurt, with the implicit instructions that they should run the same fiscal policy as Germany.... Which would work out just dandy if Greece was a major exporter like Germany?."

Well that's not quite true either is it.

Firstly, although New York was not able to print $, it did have a press and it printed the equivalent of $ in the shape of bonds. And although Greece has never been a major industrial power it does have one of the largest merchant marines in the world and if Greek shipping families had paid their taxes over the last half century maybe Greece would not be in the mess it is in. But don't worry the fashion for only the poor to pay tax has caught on here and in the states too so we will quickly be joining Greece in shit creak!


"However they weren't aren't and have never been, the only thing that ever held them in check was interest rates on borrowings (historically about 20-25%) and how much they could devalue the drachma by..... It's like night follows day.... Unless your in a monetary union with Germany"

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"That's not quite true though.

NY city doesn't and never did have a printing press where as Greece did and used it alot until the Germans locked it up in a cupboard in Frankfurt, with the implicit instructions that they should run the same fiscal policy as Germany.... Which would work out just dandy if Greece was a major exporter like Germany?.

Well that's not quite true either is it.

Firstly, although New York was not able to print $, it did have a press and it printed the equivalent of $ in the shape of bonds. And although Greece has never been a major industrial power it does have one of the largest merchant marines in the world and if Greek shipping families had paid their taxes over the last half century maybe Greece would not be in the mess it is in. But don't worry the fashion for only the poor to pay tax has caught on here and in the states too so we will quickly be joining Greece in shit creak!

However they weren't aren't and have never been, the only thing that ever held them in check was interest rates on borrowings (historically about 20-25%) and how much they could devalue the drachma by..... It's like night follows day.... Unless your in a monetary union with Germany"
.

That's why they had shipping magnates.... Coz they've always been a tax haven for the rich!!.

.

But like the millions suffering now aren't the tax dogging wealthy fuckers, it's poor Greeks.

.

A lesson from the Irish famine for you.... There was no famine, there was plenty of food to go around but due to "economic" constraints placed by the "political union" which Ireland was in (UK) the food went abroad and not to the staving (it was priced out of the market).

.

I don't wish to see Greeks starve to teach them a lesson in economics

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By *andS66Couple
over a year ago

Derby

Hard Talk last week had Guy Verhostadt on - he actually said during the interview that the eurozone would change, and that one (or more) countries would no longer be in the euro within the next 5 years.

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By *otlovefun42Couple
over a year ago

Costa Blanca Spain...


"That's not quite true though.

NY city doesn't and never did have a printing press where as Greece did and used it alot until the Germans locked it up in a cupboard in Frankfurt, with the implicit instructions that they should run the same fiscal policy as Germany.... Which would work out just dandy if Greece was a major exporter like Germany?.

Well that's not quite true either is it.

Firstly, although New York was not able to print $, it did have a press and it printed the equivalent of $ in the shape of bonds. And although Greece has never been a major industrial power it does have one of the largest merchant marines in the world and if Greek shipping families had paid their taxes over the last half century maybe Greece would not be in the mess it is in. But don't worry the fashion for only the poor to pay tax has caught on here and in the states too so we will quickly be joining Greece in shit creak!

However they weren't aren't and have never been, the only thing that ever held them in check was interest rates on borrowings (historically about 20-25%) and how much they could devalue the drachma by..... It's like night follows day.... Unless your in a monetary union with Germany.

That's why they had shipping magnates.... Coz they've always been a tax haven for the rich!!.

.

But like the millions suffering now aren't the tax dogging wealthy fuckers, it's poor Greeks.

.

A lesson from the Irish famine for you.... There was no famine, there was plenty of food to go around but due to "economic" constraints placed by the "political union" which Ireland was in (UK) the food went abroad and not to the staving (it was priced out of the market).

.

I don't wish to see Greeks starve to teach them a lesson in economics

"

While I would agree that tax evasion was pretty much a cottage industry in Greece it was far from the only thing, and not even the biggest thing, that brought them down.

The Greeks biggest problem was spendthrift (mostly but not exclusively socialist PASOK) governments who would promise (and give) the world to buy votes.

Vote for me and workers in the "dangerous" hairdressing trade can retire on full pension at 50.

Vote for me and the Athens underground will be ticketless and payment will be by "honesty box"

Vote for me and the rail network will be fully staffed and cheap. Yes it was. 500 million a year wage bill and 80 million in ticket sales.

Vote for me and we will carry on turning a blind eye to "ghost workers" The public sector jobs where you can just stop turning up for work but still receive full pay for years while you go and set up a business.

There are many more examples of Greek politicians largesse but suffice to say it well and truly bit them, and the voters who were happy to take advantage for years, on the arse.

While I have no sympathy for shipping magnates I also have little sympathy for voters who were happy to take the politicians bribes but now bitch and want to blame everyone else when it goes tits up.

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By *ercury OP   Man
over a year ago

Grantham

I believe that the USA has its eyes on Germany and their flouting of IMF rules, and matters may come to a head very shortly.

The Greek people deserve better than to be plunged into the monetary abyss.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"They could have paid thier taxes "

You must be jocking right?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

As a Greek in my early thirties, working for 12 years 55 hours per week i payed all my taxes, even the ones in 2014-2015 when the government asked for 4.800 euros out of my 10.600 income, I can tell you one thing.

Did anyone even considered that it's not the average Greek's fault?

Does anyone knows how much money did Germany made (still making) out of the Greek crises?

Greek Ports, airports, banks, trains, water, electricity ect ect.... They belong to the Germans now.. And it is not enough.

They created the crises. Now they are asking for land, islands, ''special agreements'' for German citizens...

Greek people is the victim of a well planned fraud..

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By *otlovefun42Couple
over a year ago

Costa Blanca Spain...


"As a Greek in my early thirties, working for 12 years 55 hours per week i payed all my taxes, even the ones in 2014-2015 when the government asked for 4.800 euros out of my 10.600 income, I can tell you one thing.

Did anyone even considered that it's not the average Greek's fault?

Does anyone knows how much money did Germany made (still making) out of the Greek crises?

Greek Ports, airports, banks, trains, water, electricity ect ect.... They belong to the Germans now.. And it is not enough.

They created the crises. Now they are asking for land, islands, ''special agreements'' for German citizens...

Greek people is the victim of a well planned fraud..

"

Maybe or maybe not.

However there is a very easy way out of the shit.

Default and reintroduce the Drachma.

It would still be painful for a year or two but in the end it would work out for the best.

Just look at Iceland or Argentina.

What Greece cannot do is ditch austerity AND stay in the Euro. It's one or the other.

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral


"There really is no Greek problem.

But there is an ECB problem.

The ECB's problem is that it is refusing to let Greece become bankrupt. Until the ECB discovers its balls and stops supporting states that are continually and deliberately running unsustainable budgets then the likes of Greece will continue to exploit that weakness. There have been similar situations in the USA, notably New York in the 70. It was not until the money stream was turned off that the city addressed its problems. The same goes for Greece."
Very good point

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