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"Do not know about this but you seem to make sense,we cannot go completely alone in every area it is not practical to us or to the EU." Indeed, whatever side of the Brexit debate (and you and I are on opposite sides) it surely doesn't make sense to withdraw from international scientific research. | |||
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"I do hope we leave the Eurovision." Isn't Israel in Eurovision? | |||
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"I do hope we leave the Eurovision. Isn't Israel in Eurovision? " And Australia | |||
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"I think there are a lot of assumptions doing the rounds inside our government. We are leaving the EU, ok. We are leaving the single market, ok. We are leaving the customs union, ok. We are leaving Euroatom, ok. But... We are going to have a special deal for the motor and financial industries, somehow I think not. I tend to believe the leaders of the EU and their chief negotiator who say that there will be no cherry picking by us. We are going to rejoin Euroatom, has anyone asked them if they will want us back? Again I'm betting that the government haven't bothered asking the question. I think that many are in for a rude awakening when Article 50 is triggered and the realities of our situation start becoming clear. I have a nasty feeling that where we should be trying to make friends all Ms May is doing is alienating the very people she needs to be on our side." Don't forget that the UK will have to leave the EMA too. | |||
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"There will be a security/intelligence deal." Will there? I have a sneaking suspicion that someone will screw it up and that we will be seeing our customs post in Calais being shut down. I have an awful feeling that we will find that Ms May's red, white and blue brexit will turn out to be a tricolour rather than Union Flag. "There will be a deal on tariff free trade of manufactured goods because that is mutually beneficial." Again, will there? I have a sinking feeling when it comes to manufactured goods. I suspect that there will be no deal and that the only thing we will be exporting to the EU tariff free will be factories and jobs. "Finance and services? Nah." At least here we agree. "R&D will be case by case and unlikely to be headquartered here." When the EU funding goes so will the researcher institutes and their staff. The real question is how long until the likes of airbus and Rolls Royce relocate their manufacturing operations from the UK to somewhere inside the EU? | |||
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"There will be a security/intelligence deal. Will there? I have a sneaking suspicion that someone will screw it up and that we will be seeing our customs post in Calais being shut down. I have an awful feeling that we will find that Ms May's red, white and blue brexit will turn out to be a tricolour rather than Union Flag. There will be a deal on tariff free trade of manufactured goods because that is mutually beneficial. Again, will there? I have a sinking feeling when it comes to manufactured goods. I suspect that there will be no deal and that the only thing we will be exporting to the EU tariff free will be factories and jobs. Finance and services? Nah. At least here we agree. R&D will be case by case and unlikely to be headquartered here. When the EU funding goes so will the researcher institutes and their staff. The real question is how long until the likes of airbus and Rolls Royce relocate their manufacturing operations from the UK to somewhere inside the EU?" You are probably right about Calais unless we pay for it in cash. Other security and intelligence is too important not to agree to work together on. Tariff fee tease is relatively easy to negotiate although we'll have to meet EU standards. It's an easy win-win. I think short to medium term it will be business as usual for private companies, but long-term new investment will go to the bigger market. It will be a long, slow running down. | |||
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"I do hope we leave the Eurovision. Isn't Israel in Eurovision? And Australia " I thought you were taking the piss, but no, I checked, and that well know "European" country Australia (the one with the kangeroos) was indeed in Eurovision | |||
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"I do hope we leave the Eurovision. Isn't Israel in Eurovision? And Australia I thought you were taking the piss, but no, I checked, and that well know "European" country Australia (the one with the kangeroos) was indeed in Eurovision " And they nearly won! "And now from Brisbane, the 2017 Eurovision contest" | |||
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"I do hope we leave the Eurovision. Isn't Israel in Eurovision? And Australia I thought you were taking the piss, but no, I checked, and that well know "European" country Australia (the one with the kangeroos) was indeed in Eurovision " Oh crumbs... can you imagine the civil unrest in the UK if we attempted to leave Eurovision? Considering 7.1M people watched it on TV last year, that is 21% of the turnout for the referendum! -Matt | |||
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" You are probably right about Calais unless we pay for it in cash. ." " Calais" is actually nothing to with the EU; " juxtaposition of controls " is part of the Le Touquet agreement. Whichbis an extension of the Sangatte protocol.And applies to passport controls. It provides for exchanges passport controls at the Eurotunnel, at the terminals of the Eurostar in London, Ashford, Ebbsfleet , at Lille, Calais, Paris and Brussels .it also allies juxtaposed controls at a number of ports. Except for Eurostar and the tunnel, it doesn't include customs control, which remains within the home country. The Sangatte protocol and the Le Touquet agreement are bilateral treaties with France. ( and an extension in Belguim for Eurostar. So in theory it is unaffected by BREXIT. | |||
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" You are probably right about Calais unless we pay for it in cash. . " Calais" is actually nothing to with the EU; " juxtaposition of controls " is part of the Le Touquet agreement. Whichbis an extension of the Sangatte protocol.And applies to passport controls. It provides for exchanges passport controls at the Eurotunnel, at the terminals of the Eurostar in London, Ashford, Ebbsfleet , at Lille, Calais, Paris and Brussels .it also allies juxtaposed controls at a number of ports. Except for Eurostar and the tunnel, it doesn't include customs control, which remains within the home country. The Sangatte protocol and the Le Touquet agreement are bilateral treaties with France. ( and an extension in Belguim for Eurostar. So in theory it is unaffected by BREXIT. " We are all about bilateral agreements now and I don't see a political benefit to France to Do us any favours... | |||
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"" Calais" is actually nothing to with the EU; " juxtaposition of controls " is part of the Le Touquet agreement. Whichbis an extension of the Sangatte protocol.And applies to passport controls. It provides for exchanges passport controls at the Eurotunnel, at the terminals of the Eurostar in London, Ashford, Ebbsfleet , at Lille, Calais, Paris and Brussels .it also allies juxtaposed controls at a number of ports. Except for Eurostar and the tunnel, it doesn't include customs control, which remains within the home country. The Sangatte protocol and the Le Touquet agreement are bilateral treaties with France. ( and an extension in Belguim for Eurostar. So in theory it is unaffected by BREXIT. " I think you miss the point, although the Calais agreement is bilateral there can be little doubt that it owes it's existence to our membership of the EU. I for one believe that it will not survive our EU departure regardless of how much we are willing to pay to keep it. I have a very nasty feeling that there are going to be many other costs too and that most of them will remain hidden until we have left the EU building and suddenly find that club membership got us a whole lot more than we ever realised. | |||
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"We are all about bilateral agreements now and I don't see a political benefit to France to Do us any favours..." Now there is a thought... EU countries cant do bilateral agreements with non EU countries. Does this mean the Sangatte and Good Friday agreements lapses when we leave the EU? I wonder how many other reciprocal agreements there are floating around that also cease as soon as we leave the club... | |||
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"We are all about bilateral agreements now and I don't see a political benefit to France to Do us any favours... Now there is a thought... EU countries cant do bilateral agreements with non EU countries. Does this mean the Sangatte and Good Friday agreements lapses when we leave the EU? I wonder how many other reciprocal agreements there are floating around that also cease as soon as we leave the club..." Actually they can; because the Sangatte and Le Touquet agreements are completely ( legally ) separate from any EU agreement. They are purely bilateral. And can be legally set up despite the EU. As can any such agreement. In the same way that the UK /France dual taxation treaty is entirely separate from EU laws. ( and the UK /Germany one, and UK /Spain one, and all the rest. Sangatte or Le Touquet can only be undone by either nation giving 2 years notice to the other. | |||
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"Actually they can; because the Sangatte and Le Touquet agreements are completely ( legally ) separate from any EU agreement. They are purely bilateral. And can be legally set up despite the EU. As can any such agreement. In the same way that the UK /France dual taxation treaty is entirely separate from EU laws. ( and the UK /Germany one, and UK /Spain one, and all the rest. Sangatte or Le Touquet can only be undone by either nation giving 2 years notice to the other." Not so, just checked. EU law says that no member state can enter into a bilateral agreement with a non member state that may have any effect on trade or taxation. So all those taxation treaties are definitely on their way out and I would suggest so is the Sangatte and eurofighter agreement as well as most scientific collaborations (all have possible trade implications). | |||
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"Actually they can; because the Sangatte and Le Touquet agreements are completely ( legally ) separate from any EU agreement. They are purely bilateral. And can be legally set up despite the EU. As can any such agreement. In the same way that the UK /France dual taxation treaty is entirely separate from EU laws. ( and the UK /Germany one, and UK /Spain one, and all the rest. Sangatte or Le Touquet can only be undone by either nation giving 2 years notice to the other. Not so, just checked. EU law says that no member state can enter into a bilateral agreement with a non member state that may have any effect on trade or taxation. So all those taxation treaties are definitely on their way out and I would suggest so is the Sangatte and eurofighter agreement as well as most scientific collaborations (all have possible trade implications). " It may say 'can't enter' but does it mean has to leave when we leave? ie. if those agreements were already entered into whilst Uk was an EU member, do they remain valid when we leave? -Matt | |||
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"It may say 'can't enter' but does it mean has to leave when we leave? ie. if those agreements were already entered into whilst Uk was an EU member, do they remain valid when we leave? -Matt" If I had to lay a bet I would go with 'no'. I have a feeling that whereas ms May will be looking to spend the 2 years from triggering article 50 negotiating a favourable trade deal the EU who set the agenda will be spending it deciding which if any of the bilateral deals are written into EU law and how to amend them so that the EU come out with the best of the deal. Of course Ms May has said she is willing to walk away with no deal if she does not get what she wants, I expect that we will find 18 months down the line from triggering article 50 (EU have said 18 months to work out an agreement, 6 months to get it through the European parliament) that her bluff will be called and that the EU decide no agreement means no agreements period. I hope I am wrong, but I fear that I am not | |||
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"Sangatte and the le Touquet treaty are legal under U.K. Law as they are simply concerning the ovation of border controls and customs checks ( in and out of the Schengen zone. In the same way as the Northern Irekand /ROI border agreement is also bilateral. The Le Touquet agreement ( and Sangatte) are not about taxation or trade , so are of no interest to the EU. On the other hand, agreements over Typhoon/Eurofighter, the Army Ajax programme, and massive amounts of other military and naval projects will become subject to interesting taxes unless special cases are made." Again you seem to have missed my point. It makes no difference what UK law says, if the EU decide that they break EU regulations (and I think that is what the EU will decide) then either they get adopted by the EU or they go. Now I am betting that somewhere down the negotiating line someone on our side doing a bit of grandstanding (like May with the state visit for donny the nonce) will open their trap in such a way that the EU ends up saying get on with it but your not having any of that, you want a hard brexit enjoy the landing. That is of course if May hasn't already done that with her we will be talking trade with the Donald. | |||
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"Sangatte and the le Touquet treaty are legal under U.K. Law as they are simply concerning the ovation of border controls and customs checks ( in and out of the Schengen zone. In the same way as the Northern Irekand /ROI border agreement is also bilateral. The Le Touquet agreement ( and Sangatte) are not about taxation or trade , so are of no interest to the EU. On the other hand, agreements over Typhoon/Eurofighter, the Army Ajax programme, and massive amounts of other military and naval projects will become subject to interesting taxes unless special cases are made. Again you seem to have missed my point. It makes no difference what UK law says, if the EU decide that they break EU regulations (and I think that is what the EU will decide) then either they get adopted by the EU or they go. Now I am betting that somewhere down the negotiating line someone on our side doing a bit of grandstanding (like May with the state visit for donny the nonce) will open their trap in such a way that the EU ends up saying get on with it but your not having any of that, you want a hard brexit enjoy the landing. That is of course if May hasn't already done that with her we will be talking trade with the Donald." By the way; there is a typo in my list you quote; the Sangatte and Le Touquet treaties are legal under EU law is what I meant, because they are diplomatic accords, not trade/tax accords, thus the EU has no say in them. In the same way that the Rebubkic of Ireland has exactly the same deal with US customs posts at Dublin on a bilateral agreement; its " legal" under the EU because the EU has no say in it, and no legal right to interfere. And btw I don't want a hard Brexit; I don't want any fucking BREXIT. Even though the EU will be better off without the UK. | |||
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"By the way; there is a typo in my list you quote; the Sangatte and Le Touquet treaties are legal under EU law is what I meant, because they are diplomatic accords, not trade/tax accords, thus the EU has no say in them. In the same way that the Rebubkic of Ireland has exactly the same deal with US customs posts at Dublin on a bilateral agreement; its " legal" under the EU because the EU has no say in it, and no legal right to interfere. And btw I don't want a hard Brexit; I don't want any fucking BREXIT. Even though the EU will be better off without the UK. " Typos do not matter. And I am not questioning your personal views on brexit. What I am saying is anything that makes entry from a non EU country to the EU easier can be seen as having possible economic benefits and therefore if the EU decide to make them a part of the exit negotiations then they will be regardless of their status now. It is my belief that many things we believe to be totally separate from our membership of the EU will in the not too distant future be very much front and centre in all negotiations. Even tonight an EU official said that the talks will be about divorce terms not trade deals and what follows that is for after we leave. I just think we all need to get realistic about brexit, jingoism and an attitude of weer British and all we need to do is shout and wave the flag will not work as we are about to find out. I hope I am wrong but I have a nasty feeling that I am underestimating exactly how bad things are going to get and would advise anyone who lives outside the UK and has an opportunity to gain an EU passport from elsewhere to do so quickly before the window of opportunity is closed. If I am wrong it will have cost you a £100 or so, if I am right and you don't it may cost you the right to stay living in the EU. Is that a risk you want to take? | |||
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