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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

So, Dr Graham Gudgin from the Centre for Business Research at the University of Cambridge has analysed the Bank of England's post-Brexit predictions.

His conclusion is that the predictions were based on the flawed application of a fairly controversial technique.

Economic experts, hey?

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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago

Barbados

I like how in the report they state:

"However, the Centre for Business Research advises that its own conclusions should be taken with a pinch of salt. The report states: "The best we can do is to construct a series of scenarios based on assumptions about future trading arrangements, migration controls and about the short-term uncertainties which could affect business investment in the run-up to the likely leaving date of 2019."

"The working paper, for example, assumes that Theresa May prioritises immigration controls and manages to reduce net migration to around 165,000 from 2020. It also assumes an eventual free trade deal with the EU and a transition arrangement while it is negotiated. While these assumptions are likely, they are by no means certain."

Ie they are basing in on assumptions too. And seeing as they don't know what May is up to they can't really comment either.

Considering when directly asked in the select committee about how she has missed all her immigration targets so far, how is she going to deal with the conflict of free movement vs free trade... she couldn't answer the question.

-Matt

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

'It's a fair cop to say that the profession is to some degree in crisis'

Andrew Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England.

(In other words we're pretty fuckin useless at forecasting and its all a bit pointless)

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By *oi_LucyCouple
over a year ago

Barbados

Even Michael Fish has had a go at them for the comment that is was their 'Michael Fish moment'.

-Matt

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"I like how in the report they state:

"However, the Centre for Business Research advises that its own conclusions should be taken with a pinch of salt. The report states: "The best we can do is to construct a series of scenarios based on assumptions about future trading arrangements, migration controls and about the short-term uncertainties which could affect business investment in the run-up to the likely leaving date of 2019."

"

Absolutely right.

I don't recall the Bank of England pointing out that it's predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt, though, during the Remain campaign, do you?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Even Michael Fish has had a go at them for the comment that is was their 'Michael Fish moment'.

-Matt"
.

This has totally annoyed me.... He's 100% correct! You can't have a hurricane in waters below 26 degrees!.

It's all in the wording?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"'It's a fair cop to say that the profession is to some degree in crisis'

Andrew Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England.

(In other words we're pretty fuckin useless at forecasting and its all a bit pointless)"

Yet how do you have faith that Britain will be economically stronger post brexit?

Are you better at predicting the future?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"'It's a fair cop to say that the profession is to some degree in crisis'

Andrew Haldane, chief economist at the Bank of England.

(In other words we're pretty fuckin useless at forecasting and its all a bit pointless)

Yet how do you have faith that Britain will be economically stronger post brexit?

Are you better at predicting the future? "

so far yes

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Lol

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By *mmabluTV/TS
over a year ago

upton wirral

No such think as an economics expert as they assume life is statutory and the world changes every hour.

Better off with a crystal ball lol,or people can do is guess but they give an opinion to please there paymasters mostly

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