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Investing for a hard brexit

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

From dipping my toe in this forum, it is pretty clear that the UK is in for a rough time over the next number of years. I can't see any other conclusion if the infighting is any way representative of the population.

How are people investing or positioning themselves to make money from a hard brexit? Short the pound? Keep cash in hand and wait for a dip? Buy property when prices plummet, or will they?

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West


"From dipping my toe in this forum, it is pretty clear that the UK is in for a rough time over the next number of years. I can't see any other conclusion if the infighting is any way representative of the population.

How are people investing or positioning themselves to make money from a hard brexit? Short the pound? Keep cash in hand and wait for a dip? Buy property when prices plummet, or will they?

"

I dumped all my liquid sterling and Euros first six months of 2016 for USD. Still got UK property and Euro property but I am OK with both as the Euro property is in France and I don't doubt that the UK rental market will continue to improve. USD have doubled in 12 months through flipping properties and if I was to repatriate now I would have almost trebled the GBP that I sent over. 2017 should be a good year for me as I predict a further drop in sterling after A50.

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By *hree steps to heavenMan
over a year ago

Saint Albans


"From dipping my toe in this forum, it is pretty clear that the UK is in for a rough time over the next number of years. I can't see any other conclusion if the infighting is any way representative of the population.

How are people investing or positioning themselves to make money from a hard brexit? Short the pound? Keep cash in hand and wait for a dip? Buy property when prices plummet, or will they?

"

As no one can time or predict the market my investments will remain unchanged . I am of the opinion that investing must be over a twenty or thirty year view. Those who attempt to time the markets are those who are most likely to lose money .

People still need to buy our goods and we have some leading technology companies so Brexit will simply open up new opportunities and we will not be wasting money paid to EU bureaucrats .

.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

As no one can time or predict the market my investments will remain unchanged .

I am of the opinion that investing must be over a twenty or thirty year view.

"

Being able to time and predict the markets is exactly how you make good returns on investments without waiting 20 to 30 years.


"

People still need to buy our goods and we have some leading technology companies so Brexit will simply open up new opportunities and we will not be wasting money paid to EU bureaucrats .

."

While throwing away our existing guaranteed trade on the basis of possible future opportunities

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"From dipping my toe in this forum, it is pretty clear that the UK is in for a rough time over the next number of years. I can't see any other conclusion if the infighting is any way representative of the population.

How are people investing or positioning themselves to make money from a hard brexit? Short the pound? Keep cash in hand and wait for a dip? Buy property when prices plummet, or will they?

I dumped all my liquid sterling and Euros first six months of 2016 for USD. Still got UK property and Euro property but I am OK with both as the Euro property is in France and I don't doubt that the UK rental market will continue to improve. USD have doubled in 12 months through flipping properties and if I was to repatriate now I would have almost trebled the GBP that I sent over. 2017 should be a good year for me as I predict a further drop in sterling after A50."

lol

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By *hree steps to heavenMan
over a year ago

Saint Albans


"

As no one can time or predict the market my investments will remain unchanged .

I am of the opinion that investing must be over a twenty or thirty year view.

Being able to time and predict the markets is exactly how you make good returns on investments without waiting 20 to 30 years.

People still need to buy our goods and we have some leading technology companies so Brexit will simply open up new opportunities and we will not be wasting money paid to EU bureaucrats .

.

While throwing away our existing guaranteed trade on the basis of possible future opportunities "

However I thought that it was generally accepted that no one can either time or predict the market. Those that attempt to either time or predict the market end up losing money. To obtain decent investment returns you have to be invested over a long period of time in order to iron out peaks and troughts . I do not know of anyone who can time or predict the markets .

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

There's no point in looking at the UK in isolation however much people may wish to.

There is a huge asset bubble that has been inflating since 2008. The huge amount of money pumped into the finance system in buying back bonds has not been spent on real things by the banks. It's been spent on equities and housing and debt based consumer spending through low interest rates. Corporations have not been investigating, they've used profits to inflate their valuations with share buy-backs.

We are 8 years from the last trough of the economic cycle.

What do you all think happens next.

It's probably gold time.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats . "

I also object to funding overpaid Downing Street special advisors https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/special-advisors-spads-pay-theresa-may-wages-bill-total-labour-a7489221.html%3famp

Do you know how much of the EU bureaucracy would have to be replicated in the UK after we leave? Have you given any thought as to what they do?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"There's no point in looking at the UK in isolation however much people may wish to.

There is a huge asset bubble that has been inflating since 2008. The huge amount of money pumped into the finance system in buying back bonds has not been spent on real things by the banks. It's been spent on equities and housing and debt based consumer spending through low interest rates. Corporations have not been investigating, they've used profits to inflate their valuations with share buy-backs.

We are 8 years from the last trough of the economic cycle.

What do you all think happens next.

It's probably gold time."

.

I'd say that's a pretty reasonable analysis.

.

Although I'd factor in for the UK alot of inflation, now if they can manage to keep the debt price low you might be able to deflate your debt.

One thing's for sure, the world's interconnected by banking, if China go tits we are to, and so is the USA and France and Germany and all those can be interchangeable.

.

Personally I don't think there can be another pop.... Or there can be but it will be the last.. On that front I think it's possible they could "fix" it for quite a few more years yet, if the IMF manage to get the inter country currency of the SDR genuinely workable, they could keep the whole shebang going for another ten years?

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

It's quite naive to think that solid reliable British politicians will be squeaky clean relative to those EU grabitall scumbags

They are politicians, it's in their dna

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

I also object to funding overpaid Downing Street special advisors https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/special-advisors-spads-pay-theresa-may-wages-bill-total-labour-a7489221.html%3famp

Do you know how much of the EU bureaucracy would have to be replicated in the UK after we leave? Have you given any thought as to what they do?"

A crash is due by all accounts but still no harm in a brexit buy and hold for 10 years value grab

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

Wrong emoji sorry

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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago

Cambridge


"

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

I also object to funding overpaid Downing Street special advisors https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/special-advisors-spads-pay-theresa-may-wages-bill-total-labour-a7489221.html%3famp

Do you know how much of the EU bureaucracy would have to be replicated in the UK after we leave? Have you given any thought as to what they do?"

Aren't we going to quadruple a lot of the bureaucracy? Take agriculture or fishing? I doubt that's going to be taken over by Whitehall, the devolved governments will want it, so instead of one policy that covers 500m people, we will have 4 policies for 65m people. How will that save us money pat?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

I also object to funding overpaid Downing Street special advisors https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/special-advisors-spads-pay-theresa-may-wages-bill-total-labour-a7489221.html%3famp

Do you know how much of the EU bureaucracy would have to be replicated in the UK after we leave? Have you given any thought as to what they do?

A crash is due by all accounts but still no harm in a brexit buy and hold for 10 years value grab "

. It is typically every 8 years! Were nearly ten now.

I think there so scared now they'll just keep inflating it with cheap money for quite awhile or as long as they can... And I think the next crash is the last crash so I'm not really thinking about making money, I'm thinking where to go with the money I've got already

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

If 2008 has given us some lessons ... I don't think the world will end but the financial manipulation to prop things up probably does mean it will be a bit deeper when it hits

Trump deregulation might add fuel to the fire though

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

I also object to funding overpaid Downing Street special advisors https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/special-advisors-spads-pay-theresa-may-wages-bill-total-labour-a7489221.html%3famp

Do you know how much of the EU bureaucracy would have to be replicated in the UK after we leave? Have you given any thought as to what they do?

Aren't we going to quadruple a lot of the bureaucracy? Take agriculture or fishing? I doubt that's going to be taken over by Whitehall, the devolved governments will want it, so instead of one policy that covers 500m people, we will have 4 policies for 65m people. How will that save us money pat? "

.

This country runs on two things.

The housing market

And bureaucracy.

Half the people I work for have a job that either entails filling in forms of various types or training people to fill the forms in or deciding what should be on the forms that need filling in... It's a specialised market which the Italians have corned.... But we're making in roads

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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago

Cambridge


"If 2008 has given us some lessons ... I don't think the world will end but the financial manipulation to prop things up probably does mean it will be a bit deeper when it hits

Trump deregulation might add fuel to the fire though "

Once we are out of the EU and fending for ourselves, do you think we will attract business and investment with more, or less regulation?

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West


"

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

I also object to funding overpaid Downing Street special advisors https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/special-advisors-spads-pay-theresa-may-wages-bill-total-labour-a7489221.html%3famp

Do you know how much of the EU bureaucracy would have to be replicated in the UK after we leave? Have you given any thought as to what they do?

Aren't we going to quadruple a lot of the bureaucracy? Take agriculture or fishing? I doubt that's going to be taken over by Whitehall, the devolved governments will want it, so instead of one policy that covers 500m people, we will have 4 policies for 65m people. How will that save us money pat? .

This country runs on two things.

The housing market

And bureaucracy.

Half the people I work for have a job that either entails filling in forms of various types or training people to fill the forms in or deciding what should be on the forms that need filling in... It's a specialised market which the Italians have corned.... But we're making in roads "

You should try dealing with American utility company's. Or worse, City housing departments in places where they have rigid building control regulations and city codes. The building departments in particular are a throwback to the 1970's with bits of paper needed for everything. Permis and inspections that can only be requested using formal paper as long as it is appropriately stamped by the right person and so on, and so on.

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By *hree steps to heavenMan
over a year ago

Saint Albans


"

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

I also object to funding overpaid Downing Street special advisors https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/special-advisors-spads-pay-theresa-may-wages-bill-total-labour-a7489221.html%3famp

Do you know how much of the EU bureaucracy would have to be replicated in the UK after we leave? Have you given any thought as to what they do?

Aren't we going to quadruple a lot of the bureaucracy? Take agriculture or fishing? I doubt that's going to be taken over by Whitehall, the devolved governments will want it, so instead of one policy that covers 500m people, we will have 4 policies for 65m people. How will that save us money pat? "

Maybe as a cost saving measure we can remove that devolved government .

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By *imiUKMan
over a year ago

Hereford


"

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

I also object to funding overpaid Downing Street special advisors https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/special-advisors-spads-pay-theresa-may-wages-bill-total-labour-a7489221.html%3famp

Do you know how much of the EU bureaucracy would have to be replicated in the UK after we leave? Have you given any thought as to what they do?

Aren't we going to quadruple a lot of the bureaucracy? Take agriculture or fishing? I doubt that's going to be taken over by Whitehall, the devolved governments will want it, so instead of one policy that covers 500m people, we will have 4 policies for 65m people. How will that save us money pat? Maybe as a cost saving measure we can remove that devolved government . "

I never had you down as an Anarchist, commrade.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

I also object to funding overpaid Downing Street special advisors https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/special-advisors-spads-pay-theresa-may-wages-bill-total-labour-a7489221.html%3famp

Do you know how much of the EU bureaucracy would have to be replicated in the UK after we leave? Have you given any thought as to what they do?

Aren't we going to quadruple a lot of the bureaucracy? Take agriculture or fishing? I doubt that's going to be taken over by Whitehall, the devolved governments will want it, so instead of one policy that covers 500m people, we will have 4 policies for 65m people. How will that save us money pat? Maybe as a cost saving measure we can remove that devolved government . "

I'm wondering if this is serious, because this sounds like an out of touch elite imposing their rules and values on the local population...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

As no one can time or predict the market my investments will remain unchanged .

I am of the opinion that investing must be over a twenty or thirty year view.

Being able to time and predict the markets is exactly how you make good returns on investments without waiting 20 to 30 years.

People still need to buy our goods and we have some leading technology companies so Brexit will simply open up new opportunities and we will not be wasting money paid to EU bureaucrats .

.

While throwing away our existing guaranteed trade on the basis of possible future opportunities However I thought that it was generally accepted that no one can either time or predict the market. Those that attempt to either time or predict the market end up losing money. To obtain decent investment returns you have to be invested over a long period of time in order to iron out peaks and troughts . I do not know of anyone who can time or predict the markets .

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats . "

Yes no one has a magic crystal ball but to make large gains means taking large risks, some are very good at it, many are not, but those types of traders make their money over just days, maybe even hours, definitely not 30 years.

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By *hree steps to heavenMan
over a year ago

Saint Albans


"

As no one can time or predict the market my investments will remain unchanged .

I am of the opinion that investing must be over a twenty or thirty year view.

Being able to time and predict the markets is exactly how you make good returns on investments without waiting 20 to 30 years.

People still need to buy our goods and we have some leading technology companies so Brexit will simply open up new opportunities and we will not be wasting money paid to EU bureaucrats .

.

While throwing away our existing guaranteed trade on the basis of possible future opportunities However I thought that it was generally accepted that no one can either time or predict the market. Those that attempt to either time or predict the market end up losing money. To obtain decent investment returns you have to be invested over a long period of time in order to iron out peaks and troughts . I do not know of anyone who can time or predict the markets .

I don't think we are throwing anything away. I really object to funding overpaid EU bureaucrats .

Yes no one has a magic crystal ball but to make large gains means taking large risks, some are very good at it, many are not, but those types of traders make their money over just days, maybe even hours, definitely not 30 years."

Yes . However these people are not investors , they are simply gambling. They are just as likely to lose as they are to gain. Most probably boast about their gains and keep the losses quiet .

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West


"

Yes . However these people are not investors , they are simply gambling. They are just as likely to lose as they are to gain. Most probably boast about their gains and keep the losses quiet . "

Every post offers ever more insight.

Losses are nothing to keep quiet about as they evolve into tax losses. I would not expect one of those people who looks to double their money in 20 years by keeping it a bank account to understand the benefit of this.

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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago

Cambridge

Sorry to burst your bubble pat, but there are quite a few people who are quite rich through investment banking.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

Yes . However these people are not investors , they are simply gambling. They are just as likely to lose as they are to gain. Most probably boast about their gains and keep the losses quiet . "

They are still investors even if they only hold stock for a few days, any form of investment is a gamble but as is the norm, long term investment is generally lower return / risk compared to very short term / higher risk / return.

That's how pension funds exist, using a mixture of long and short term investments/ transactions, you'd never make a pensions fund pay with just long term investment because of the low returns.

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By *hree steps to heavenMan
over a year ago

Saint Albans


"

Yes . However these people are not investors , they are simply gambling. They are just as likely to lose as they are to gain. Most probably boast about their gains and keep the losses quiet .

Every post offers ever more insight.

Losses are nothing to keep quiet about as they evolve into tax losses. I would not expect one of those people who looks to double their money in 20 years by keeping it a bank account to understand the benefit of this. "

However a loss is still a loss and you will have made a bad investment decision if you have run up short term losses . The tax offset would probably only be beneficial if you have made other gains which you would have to crystallise in the current year . Tax losses on share sales cannot be carried forwards or backwards .

When someone boasts of making a large gain in a short space of time , by default another investor will have lost exactly the same amount of money .

I would have thought that tax losses should where possible be avoided at all costs .

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By *hree steps to heavenMan
over a year ago

Saint Albans


"Sorry to burst your bubble pat, but there are quite a few people who are quite rich through investment banking."
Maybe a few but it is certainly not the norm.

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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago

Cambridge


"

When someone boasts of making a large gain in a short space of time , by default another investor will have lost exactly the same amount of money .

"

[we really need a face palm emoji] No Pat, that's not how it works.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"If 2008 has given us some lessons ... I don't think the world will end but the financial manipulation to prop things up probably does mean it will be a bit deeper when it hits

Trump deregulation might add fuel to the fire though

Once we are out of the EU and fending for ourselves, do you think we will attract business and investment with more, or less regulation? "

I haven't a clue but probably more... Stability is attractive to big companies

I think British people are quite orderly and likes rules (relative to us unruly Irish at least) but of course I'm generalising

I think we will steal a lot of the same business, similar culture, English speaking, highly educated, STILL IN THE EU and it seems that we love to cut under the counter deals with big companies and then defend it to the hilt that we didn't

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By *oo hotCouple
over a year ago

North West


"

Yes . However these people are not investors , they are simply gambling. They are just as likely to lose as they are to gain. Most probably boast about their gains and keep the losses quiet .

Every post offers ever more insight.

Losses are nothing to keep quiet about as they evolve into tax losses. I would not expect one of those people who looks to double their money in 20 years by keeping it a bank account to understand the benefit of this. However a loss is still a loss and you will have made a bad investment decision if you have run up short term losses . The tax offset would probably only be beneficial if you have made other gains which you would have to crystallise in the current year . Tax losses on share sales cannot be carried forwards or backwards .

When someone boasts of making a large gain in a short space of time , by default another investor will have lost exactly the same amount of money .

I would have thought that tax losses should where possible be avoided at all costs . "

Depends on who is doing the thinking.

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