FabSwingers.com forum: The Brier Score Game

By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

Since so many people love to come on here and make confident predictions, why not join the mixedbcouple brier score game and prove how good your predictions are?

Here are the rules:

1. The winner gets their expenses paid to attend a swinging club of their choice

2. You must make at least 30 predictions to qualify to win

3. The winner is the user with the best brier score when the game ends

4. All predictions must be made publically, in the forum (no PM bollucks) and must be expressed in percentages.

5. We will keep track of the scores and publish them periodically

6. Only questions posted by us will count

Round 1 questions, answer as many as you like:

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

Feel free to suggest other questions...

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

Obviously people are busy with their excel sheets calculating. It definitely wouldn't be the case that people, especially the corbyn fans, don't want to play because of what it might expose about their ability to predict events...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Obviously people are busy with their excel sheets calculating. It definitely wouldn't be the case that people, especially the corbyn fans, don't want to play because of what it might expose about their ability to predict events... "

We won't get the prize until 2020. Cheeky.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

We won't get the prize until 2020. Cheeky."

Nah, the game ends when we say it does / when it gets boring. As long as there are 30 separate predictions to make the brier score then we can select a winner at any point.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

We won't get the prize until 2020. Cheeky."

Wait? The questions are about probability. Do you measure wether our probability is right or not? That is hard to measure. The outcome is it happens 100% or it doesn't 0%. 50/50 would mean I win either way.

Unless they are of course cascading events.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

We won't get the prize until 2020. Cheeky.

Unless they are of course cascading events. "

Researching brier score...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

We won't get the prize until 2020. Cheeky.

Unless they are of course cascading events.

Researching brier score..."

Got it. 50% probability and it happens gives you a lower score than a 100% probability.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

We won't get the prize until 2020. Cheeky.

Unless they are of course cascading events.

Researching brier score...

Got it. 50% probability and it happens gives you a lower score than a 100% probability. "

Some scores wouldn't be counted until 2020, that is correct.

You are making binary yes, no predictions. Sometimes you will get the answer 'wrong'. But if 7/10 times you say there is a 70% probability of an event happening, it does - then your score would be perfect.

So I said there was an 80% probability of remain in Brexit. I'm only 'wrong' if more or less than 2/10 of my 80% predictions don't happen.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

20%

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

10%

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

10%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

50%

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

60%

Feel free to suggest other questions...

What's the probability I will lose this game?

100%

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Bugger. Mind blown. I hate statistics. Goes back to big data and analytics day job.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Bugger. Mind blown. I hate statistics. Goes back to big data and analytics day job."

It was mainly an experiment to see who actually had the balls to play since some people just want to endlessly debate Brexit or make wild predictions about Corbyn etc. But worth funding a trip to a club to find out...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Bugger. Mind blown. I hate statistics. Goes back to big data and analytics day job.

Great.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Bugger. Mind blown. I hate statistics. Goes back to big data and analytics day job.

Great. "

Personally I'm itching to see HornyAs2016 and CLCC go head to head. Since they've already debated Brexit more than Cameron and Farage did.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Bugger. Mind blown. I hate statistics. Goes back to big data and analytics day job.

Great.

Personally I'm itching to see HornyAs2016 and CLCC go head to head. Since they've already debated Brexit more than Cameron and Farage did. "

I was going to request a chat room for them. I feel the tension from across the north sea.

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By *oyce69Man
over a year ago

Driffield

Great.

Personally I'm itching to see HornyAs2016 and CLCC go head to head. Since they've already debated Brexit more than Cameron and Farage did. "

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

Great.

Personally I'm itching to see HornyAs2016 and CLCC go head to head. Since they've already debated Brexit more than Cameron and Farage did.

The game is open to all players, no cliques here...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

So far I'm winning. Although this won't turn into balls measuring contest, would it? That is where I may have to draw the line.

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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago

Cambridge

Are you going to participate OP?

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Are you going to participate OP? "

Yes, are you?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Are you going to participate OP?

Yes, are you? "

Keep discussing until 2020 then I win.

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Are you going to participate OP?

Yes, are you?

Keep discussing until 2020 then I win. "

CLCC is just in a stand off with HornyAs2016, neither wants to post their predictions first... who will blink first?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Are you going to participate OP?

Yes, are you?

Keep discussing until 2020 then I win.

CLCC is just in a stand off with HornyAs2016, neither wants to post their predictions first... who will blink first? "

60% on CLCC

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Are you going to participate OP?

Yes, are you?

Keep discussing until 2020 then I win.

CLCC is just in a stand off with HornyAs2016, neither wants to post their predictions first... who will blink first?

60% on CLCC"

65% HorneyAs2016 gets the better brier score by the end

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Are you going to participate OP?

Yes, are you?

Keep discussing until 2020 then I win.

CLCC is just in a stand off with HornyAs2016, neither wants to post their predictions first... who will blink first?

60% on CLCC

65% HorneyAs2016 gets the better brier score by the end "

75% for me.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Are you going to participate OP?

Yes, are you?

Keep discussing until 2020 then I win.

CLCC is just in a stand off with HornyAs2016, neither wants to post their predictions first... who will blink first?

60% on CLCC

65% HorneyAs2016 gets the better brier score by the end

75% for me."

My balls are growing bigger the more I predict

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

10%

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

40%

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

30%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

10%

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

10%

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

10%

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

50%

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Arctic to be summer sea ice free within 14 years.

Mmmm I'm cheating a little as I've seen alot of experts predictions but I'll go with 85%

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"Arctic to be summer sea ice free within 14 years.

Mmmm I'm cheating a little as I've seen alot of experts predictions but I'll go with 85%"

And people were manning about predictions going out to 2020!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Arctic to be summer sea ice free within 14 years.

Mmmm I'm cheating a little as I've seen alot of experts predictions but I'll go with 85%

And people were manning about predictions going out to 2020! "
.

It's a human trait to only be interested in short-termism!.

Many corporate giants actually take climate change more seriously than individuals BECAUSE there game plan is long term predictions for profit....I mean Google didn't spend billions years ago filming streets just for nosey neighbours, I predict electric driverless taxis within ten years will be common place.... In fact I'd go 90% on that one

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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago

Cambridge

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017? 5%

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016? 20%

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020? 50%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017? 5%

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use? 1%

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020? 5%

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017? 30%

Thems my guesses!

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017? 5%

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016? 20%

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020? 50%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017? 5%

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use? 1%

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020? 5%

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017? 30%

Thems my guesses!"

CLCC strikes first blood. Still no sign of HornyAs2016... waiting to make a dramatic entrance?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Oh you can see the bias coming through in a shining light!!.

Article 50! They've already said there won't, so you'd need something big to push them, low chance.

Pound dollar tricky one, on one hand you've got the pound with the obvious problems it's got and on the other you've got the dollar with the obvious problems it's got(it's the world reserve and the most indebted) that's why I went 40%

Nhs not much chance, the public mindset is firmly agaist privatisation and charging, again low chance, despite my thoughts of a long term Tory government

Jeremy corbyn, he's not got it. Full stop,again little chance.

Labour party.... There in disarray, there not doing anything united in the next at least 7 years again high chance of them splitting because there just ideologically split.

Referendums in Europe! Again the timetable you put made that a small one, it's not that I don't think somebody will, I just think it will take longer than the timetable you put, so again a low one.

I'm not ideologically driven anymore, I'm looking for reasons!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Repatriation will be the big problem in the next ten or fifteen years, many UK "natives" have fled for various reasons, I predict there'll be trying to return in large numbers over that period... Australia will be the first of the big repatriates

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By *LCCCouple
over a year ago

Cambridge

"Repatriation will be the big problem in the next ten or fifteen years, many UK "natives" have fled for various reasons, I predict there'll be trying to return in large numbers over that period... Australia will be the first of the big repatriates"

You think that Australia will kick them out, or that they will return of their own free will to an independent nation that has thrown off the yoke of the European Empire?

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By *iamondjoeMan
over a year ago

Glastonbury

It's like a game n' shit... but one that's had all the fun sucked out of it

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

10%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

100% simply because the NHS in itys entirety is not currently free at the point of use. We pay for Dental, Visual and Hearing treatments and pay for Prescriptions (under retirement age)

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

10% of 10% (see above)

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

50%

(Sorry for the delay I was away swinging ..

)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

10%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

100% simply because the NHS in itys entirety is not currently free at the point of use. We pay for Dental, Visual and Hearing treatments and pay for Prescriptions (under retirement age)

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

10% of 10% (see above)

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

50%

(Sorry for the delay I was away swinging ..

You lost me a prediction

Enjoy swinging

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

10%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

100% simply because the NHS in itys entirety is not currently free at the point of use. We pay for Dental, Visual and Hearing treatments and pay for Prescriptions (under retirement age)

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

10% of 10% (see above)

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

50%

(Sorry for the delay I was away swinging ..

I should point out that the Nhs question implies a significant change from the current model that would presumably involve a form of insurance. You may revise your prediction if you like?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

You think that Australia will kick them out, or that they will return of their own free will to an independent nation that has thrown off the yoke of the European Empire?

"
.

Australia has problems that could impact it quite hard in the coming decade, people have a tendency to return to the "mother land" for various reasons when things turn for the worse in the country they've emigrated too

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Ok, I'll be in. Not until I get home later this week, though. I need some time to consider the UK political nonesense.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Ok, I'll be in. Not until I get home later this week, though. I need some time to consider the UK political nonesense.

"
.

More holidays!!

Your like Judith charmers

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

A really fit Judith charmers... And not as orange

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

10%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

100% simply because the NHS in itys entirety is not currently free at the point of use. We pay for Dental, Visual and Hearing treatments and pay for Prescriptions (under retirement age)

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

10% of 10% (see above)

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

50%

(Sorry for the delay I was away swinging ..

)

I should point out that the Nhs question implies a significant change from the current model that would presumably involve a form of insurance. You may revise your prediction if you like? "

OK on that basis I will say that because the NHS is such a political hot potato the current Government will not add any charges before 2020.

Can I add a comment? Sadly all that does is pass the pain further down the years. The NHS needs a radical rethink of its funding and cost base. A new Government should start by getting rid of the horrific PFI costs inflicted by that fucking moron Gordon Brown trying to hide his excessive expenditure with the PFI sleight of hand. That would at least give the NHS a breathing space and restore the NHS Estate to taxpayer ownership. (Same with schools as well as it happens).

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

10%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

100% simply because the NHS in itys entirety is not currently free at the point of use. We pay for Dental, Visual and Hearing treatments and pay for Prescriptions (under retirement age)

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

10% of 10% (see above)

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

50%

(Sorry for the delay I was away swinging ..

)

I should point out that the Nhs question implies a significant change from the current model that would presumably involve a form of insurance. You may revise your prediction if you like?

OK on that basis I will say that because the NHS is such a political hot potato the current Government will not add any charges before 2020.

OK but I need that in a probability please!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

10%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

100% simply because the NHS in itys entirety is not currently free at the point of use. We pay for Dental, Visual and Hearing treatments and pay for Prescriptions (under retirement age)

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

10% of 10% (see above)

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

50%

(Sorry for the delay I was away swinging ..

)

I should point out that the Nhs question implies a significant change from the current model that would presumably involve a form of insurance. You may revise your prediction if you like?

OK on that basis I will say that because the NHS is such a political hot potato the current Government will not add any charges before 2020.

OK but I need that in a probability please! "

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

0% to all of them..

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

Part 2 is in another thread for those itching to make their predictions about Trump...

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By *iamondjoeMan
over a year ago

Glastonbury

I think, considering the imponderably wild probabilities involved in this game, the prize ought to be bigger?

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By (user no longer on site) OP
over a year ago

"I think, considering the imponderably wild probabilities involved in this game, the prize ought to be bigger?"

Who knows what might happen during the visit...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Ok, I'll be in. Not until I get home later this week, though. I need some time to consider the UK political nonesense.

More holidays!!

Your like Judith charmers

I had to look her up.....I should have my own travel show. I'd be ace at it.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Ok, I'll be in. Not until I get home later this week, though. I need some time to consider the UK political nonesense.

More holidays!!

Your like Judith charmers

I had to look her up.....I should have my own travel show. I'd be ace at it.

"
.

Presented only in a bikini I hope

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Ok, I'll be in. Not until I get home later this week, though. I need some time to consider the UK political nonesense.

More holidays!!

Your like Judith charmers

I had to look her up.....I should have my own travel show. I'd be ace at it.

Presented only in a bikini I hope

Naturally

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Ok, I'll be in. Not until I get home later this week, though. I need some time to consider the UK political nonesense.

More holidays!!

Your like Judith charmers

I had to look her up.....I should have my own travel show. I'd be ace at it.

Presented only in a bikini I hope

Naturally

"
.

I'm not normally keen on television.... But I think that could be a series record one there!.

How about a UK series.... I'm thinking Llandudno pier, rubber ducky racing...I do love a rubber duck race

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I'm going with 99% on that one

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By *issing in actionWoman
over a year ago

Llanelli

I'm just going to go for...

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

15%

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use

10%

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By *entaur_UKMan
over a year ago

Cannock

What is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

10%

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

20%

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

10%

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

90%

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Since so many people love to come on here and make confident predictions, why not join the mixedbcouple brier score game and prove how good your predictions are?

Here are the rules:

1. The winner gets their expenses paid to attend a swinging club of their choice

2. You must make at least 30 predictions to qualify to win

3. The winner is the user with the best brier score when the game ends

4. All predictions must be made publically, in the forum (no PM bollucks) and must be expressed in percentages.

5. We will keep track of the scores and publish them periodically

6. Only questions posted by us will count

Round 1 questions, answer as many as you like:

- what is the probability that article 50 will be invoked before 1st January 2017?

- what is the probability that the pound will buy more than 1.5 US Dollars on the 19th December 2016?

- what is the probability there will be a general election before 1st January 2020?

- what is the probability that another EU member will announce a new referendum on EU membership before 1st January 2017?

20%

- what is the probability that before 1st if January 2020, the NHS will cease to be free at the point of use?

- what is the probability that Jeremy Corbyn wins a general election before 1st January 2020?

- what is the probability that the Labour party divides into two parties before 1st April 2017?

50%

Feel free to suggest other questions... "

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I'm bumping this to remind myself to answer soon

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