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"I’d vote for Matt Goodwin because he’s fit! Not fussed who wins as long as Labour lose. The bloke who caused by-election must be a tad unpopular. What was his indiscretion again?" Goodwin is clean cut filth.
Bloke gave up his seat and 80k a year for Burnham to stand then he's not allowed.🤦♂️🤦♂️ | |||
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"Someone described the candidates as Dumber and Plumber which was a little unkind. "Oh yes, the Green lady is a plumber by trade. I’m sure she’ll be bigging up her working man credentials. | |||
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"Someone described the candidates as Dumber and Plumber which was a little unkind.
Oh yes, the Green lady is a plumber by trade.
I’m sure she’ll be bigging up her working man credentials."To be fair I think she is a qualified plumber but apparently she now designs heat systems. I'd imagine a good plumber earns more than an MP ! 🤣 | |||
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"Reform just won in Brixham seaside town. More coming. Roll on May " Three recent polls giving them at least 10% national lead. | |||
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"Someone described the candidates as Dumber and Plumber which was a little unkind.
Oh yes, the Green lady is a plumber by trade.
I’m sure she’ll be bigging up her working man credentials.
To be fair I think she is a qualified plumber but apparently she now designs heat systems. I'd imagine a good plumber earns more than an MP ! 🤣"I can picture her working in ‘nice’ homes lived in by ‘nice’ people who share her world view, rather than mixing with poor people who need their knackered boiler tinkering with. | |||
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"To be held 26th February, could be one of most important by elections in recent history. A breakthrough win for the Greens ? Reform overturn a huge Labour majority? Labour cling on and save Sir Kier's job ? Who would you vote for if you lived there? Should also be said that the Labour and Reform candidates are both pretty hot. "The labour majority was quite significant and will take a lot to overturn. I suspect that those who change from labour will likely lend their vote to either the greens or possibly the lib Dems who are no stranger to by election victories. Reform are leading the national polls but not sure how they poll in this particular area. Maybe a bit of a test for them to see if the recent influx of ex Tories has damaged them. That said a better test will be the local elections in May ( well assuming they are not cancelled entirely) | |||
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"Someone described the candidates as Dumber and Plumber which was a little unkind.
Oh yes, the Green lady is a plumber by trade.
I’m sure she’ll be bigging up her working man credentials.
To be fair I think she is a qualified plumber but apparently she now designs heat systems. I'd imagine a good plumber earns more than an MP ! 🤣
I can picture her working in ‘nice’ homes lived in by ‘nice’ people who share her world view, rather than mixing with poor people who need their knackered boiler tinkering with."She lives in one of the poshest parts of Manchester. | |||
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"To be held 26th February, could be one of most important by elections in recent history. A breakthrough win for the Greens ? Reform overturn a huge Labour majority? Labour cling on and save Sir Kier's job ? Who would you vote for if you lived there? Should also be said that the Labour and Reform candidates are both pretty hot.
The labour majority was quite significant and will take a lot to overturn. I suspect that those who change from labour will likely lend their vote to either the greens or possibly the lib Dems who are no stranger to by election victories. Reform are leading the national polls but not sure how they poll in this particular area. Maybe a bit of a test for them to see if the recent influx of ex Tories has damaged them. That said a better test will be the local elections in May ( well assuming they are not cancelled entirely)"The only poll I've seen gave Reform a very small lead in Gorton but early days. | |||
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"I'm uncertain but I don't see the Reform lot who are primarily conservatives who fucked up the car for 14 years as the answer to anything other than who to avoid for more of what we've had too much of. " To be fair the Reform candidate is not an ex Conservative, as far as I know. | |||
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"The tit whisperer is a con man." I'm still amazed at how much politics has changed in my lifetime. It feels like even just a few years ago it would be impossible for someone who once claimed that he could enhance women's breasts by hypnosis to stand for parliament. But today there he is, not just standing, but leading his party. And everyone just seems to ignore it, as if it's a minor blip in an otherwise fine upstanding candidate. Perhaps I'm just getting old. | |||
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"The tit whisperer is a con man. I'm still amazed at how much politics has changed in my lifetime. It feels like even just a few years ago it would be impossible for someone who once claimed that he could enhance women's breasts by hyp nosis to stand for parliament. But today there he is, not just standing, but leading his party. And everyone just seems to ignore it, as if it's a minor blip in an otherwise fine upstanding candidate. Perhaps I'm just getting old." Not just leading some obscure party. The Greens are gaining a lot of support. Many left wingers genuinely believe that he is the best representative of left wing politics in the country. Makes you want to question their politics  | |||
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"Someone described the candidates as Dumber and Plumber which was a little unkind.
Oh yes, the Green lady is a plumber by trade.
I’m sure she’ll be bigging up her working man credentials.
To be fair I think she is a qualified plumber but apparently she now designs heat systems. I'd imagine a good plumber earns more than an MP ! 🤣"Hopefully she is not pushing the disatrously useless heat pumps! | |||
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"Someone described the candidates as Dumber and Plumber which was a little unkind.
Oh yes, the Green lady is a plumber by trade.
I’m sure she’ll be bigging up her working man credentials.
To be fair I think she is a qualified plumber but apparently she now designs heat systems. I'd imagine a good plumber earns more than an MP ! 🤣
Hopefully she is not pushing the disatrously useless heat pumps!"Oh the Greens love them ! 🤣 | |||
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"I'd vote Reform,the big two have had their time blaming each other. The tit whisperer is a con man." Most of Reform are from 1 of the big 2 | |||
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"Someone described the candidates as Dumber and Plumber which was a little unkind.
Oh yes, the Green lady is a plumber by trade.
I’m sure she’ll be bigging up her working man credentials.
To be fair I think she is a qualified plumber but apparently she now designs heat systems. I'd imagine a good plumber earns more than an MP ! 🤣
Hopefully she is not pushing the disatrously useless heat pumps!"can she fix press leaks? | |||
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"Someone described the candidates as Dumber and Plumber which was a little unkind.
Oh yes, the Green lady is a plumber by trade.
I’m sure she’ll be bigging up her working man credentials.
To be fair I think she is a qualified plumber but apparently she now designs heat systems. I'd imagine a good plumber earns more than an MP ! 🤣
Hopefully she is not pushing the disatrously useless heat pumps!
can she fix press leaks? "Haha ! 🤣 | |||
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"Someone described the candidates as Dumber and Plumber which was a little unkind.
Oh yes, the Green lady is a plumber by trade.
I’m sure she’ll be bigging up her working man credentials.
To be fair I think she is a qualified plumber but apparently she now designs heat systems. I'd imagine a good plumber earns more than an MP ! 🤣
Hopefully she is not pushing the disatrously useless heat pumps!"I hate to disappoint but she is indeed a technician installing heat pumps for a company called Aira. | |||
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"Eurgh, this thread has once again reminded me why I don't bother with the politics forum. " And yet... | |||
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"Labour Party local polling has Reform at 39%, Green at 34% and Labour at 21%. However the Green candidate is bookies favourite at 8/11, Reform 7/4. I guess result will depend if Labour votes switch to Green to stop Reform winning?" As always, turnout and voter motivation will decide the result. Forget Labour, even their diehard voters will be reluctant to bother. Reform and Green seem to be almost neck and neck so it will be won by whichever gets its vote out on the day. Personally I think Reform will just about do it. The motivation to vote for a party you support will be much stronger than voting for A N Other just to stop someone else. | |||
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"Labour Party local polling has Reform at 39%, Green at 34% and Labour at 21%. However the Green candidate is bookies favourite at 8/11, Reform 7/4. I guess result will depend if Labour votes switch to Green to stop Reform winning? As always, turnout and voter motivation will decide the result. Forget Labour, even their diehard voters will be reluctant to bother. Reform and Green seem to be almost neck and neck so it will be won by whichever gets its vote out on the day. Personally I think Reform will just about do it. The motivation to vote for a party you support will be much stronger than voting for A N Other just to stop someone else." Agree it will be close but think Greens will edge it. At the last election Labour, Greens and Pro Hamas party got over 70% of vote while Reform and Cons about 23% so it's a very left leaning seat with 30% Muslim population who will largely vote Green. I'm guessing Reform will poll 35-40 and Greens 40-45 %. Would be a good result for both parties and terrible for Labour. | |||
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"Labour Party local polling has Reform at 39%, Green at 34% and Labour at 21%. However the Green candidate is bookies favourite at 8/11, Reform 7/4. I guess result will depend if Labour votes switch to Green to stop Reform winning? As always, turnout and voter motivation will decide the result. Forget Labour, even their diehard voters will be reluctant to bother. Reform and Green seem to be almost neck and neck so it will be won by whichever gets its vote out on the day. Personally I think Reform will just about do it. The motivation to vote for a party you support will be much stronger than voting for A N Other just to stop someone else. Agree it will be close but think Greens will edge it. At the last election Labour, Greens and Pro Hamas party got over 70% of vote while Reform and Cons about 23% so it's a very left leaning seat with 30% Muslim population who will largely vote Green. I'm guessing Reform will poll 35-40 and Greens 40-45 %. Would be a good result for both parties and terrible for Labour. " Yes it could well go that way. Ironically a slightly more popular Labour party could have helped Reform by splitting the left vote but at the moment they are about as popular as a fart in a phone box. Not forgetting that the Mandelson saga has a lot more mileage in it (all bad for Labour) and is going to run all through the campaign. It's going to be the most interesting bye election for a long time. | |||
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"Vote REFORM " What on earth for? | |||
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"Vote REFORM What on earth for?" To save what little we have left of this country ….. to undo the damage of cons, libs and liebor  | |||
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"Vote REFORM What on earth for? To save what little we have left of this country ….. to undo the damage of cons, libs and liebor "Well, if you want to see things get even worse, even faster, then carry on. I'd prefer not to vote against the country's best interest. | |||
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"Vote REFORM What on earth for?" I think many people will vote reform just to register a protest against the current government, not because they love reform or its agenda | |||
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"Vote REFORM What on earth for? To save what little we have left of this country ….. to undo the damage of cons, libs and liebor "Would you care to elaborate on saving what little is left of this country? Are you talking about coastal erosion? | |||
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"Vote REFORM What on earth for? I think many people will vote reform just to register a protest against the current government, not because they love reform or its agenda " I think it's more like "any port in a storm". Labour are those huge waves curling over the bow. The Tories are the howling gale pushing those waves and the Limp Dims are that bank of thick fog you are being pushed towards. Reform are that little harbour you can see in the distance. The entrance is tricky and the dock may not be quite big enough. But for the time being it's relative safety. | |||
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"Vote REFORM What on earth for? I think many people will vote reform just to register a protest against the current government, not because they love reform or its agenda I think it's more like "any port in a storm". Labour are those huge waves curling over the bow. The Tories are the howling gale pushing those waves and the Limp Dims are that bank of thick fog you are being pushed towards. Reform are that little harbour you can see in the distance. The entrance is tricky and the dock may not be quite big enough. But for the time being it's relative safety." Unfortunately, Reform will send out the Navy to stop your little boat docking. | |||
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"Odds 6 Feb oddschecker,,,,Green 5/6 ,,Reform 9/5 ,,, Labour 9/1 ,," Very close ! Labour no chance | |||
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"Vote REFORM What on earth for? To save what little we have left of this country ….. to undo the damage of cons, libs and liebor
Well, if you want to see things get even worse, even faster, then carry on. I'd prefer not to vote against the country's best interest."Hahaha false!!! Joke of the day | |||
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"Vote REFORM What on earth for? To save what little we have left of this country ….. to undo the damage of cons, libs and liebor
Well, if you want to see things get even worse, even faster, then carry on. I'd prefer not to vote against the country's best interest.
Hahaha false!!! Joke of the day "I think the joke of the day was "Vote Reform" | |||
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"In 2021 the Green Candidate said she was 'glad to move out of the area' and the main street was full of 'money laundering' businesses. 🤣🤣" So I actually read the post and she praises the area and wants it to do better. Now she's running for leadership soooo..... | |||
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"In 2021 the Green Candidate said she was 'glad to move out of the area' and the main street was full of 'money laundering' businesses. 🤣🤣 So I actually read the post and she praises the area and wants it to do better. Now she's running for leadership soooo....." I’m guessing the first was the daily mail and the second was the guardian | |||
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"In 2021 the Green Candidate said she was 'glad to move out of the area' and the main street was full of 'money laundering' businesses. 🤣🤣 So I actually read the post and she praises the area and wants it to do better. Now she's running for leadership soooo..... I’m guessing the first was the daily mail and the second was the guardian " Haha 🤣 | |||
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"‘The head of a Labour-affiliated union has called for Angela Rayner to replace Keir Starmer, warning that Starmer risks leading the party into a heavy election defeat to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK‘ Maryam Eslamdoust, the general secretary of the Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association (TSSA), (told the Guardian) she wants the former deputy prime minister to take charge after this month’s Gorton and Denton by-election which they expect Labour to lose. " Rayner is known to be a puppet of the unions. This plan would effectively have them running the country. Plus Rayner doesn't have two brain cells to rub together. | |||
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"To be held 26th February, could be one of most important by elections in recent history. A breakthrough win for the Greens ? Reform overturn a huge Labour majority? Labour cling on and save Sir Kier's job ? Who would you vote for if you lived there? Should also be said that the Labour and Reform candidates are both pretty hot. "I remember spitting image satirising an episode of Call My Bluff. I think the 3 characters were Maggie Thatcher, Neil Kinnock and David Steel. They all read out what it meant to come second in a by election and the opposing panel had to figure out which version of the 3 was true. They all had a different explanation as to why coming 2nd was actually better than winning. But the host interceded after all three had been read out and said “no, they are all false” The same will happen like it always does. The losers try to claim some moral high ground. And the result won’t actually change anything. Starmer will carry on regardless until he’s removed | |||
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"Odds 6 Feb oddschecker,,,,Green 5/6 ,,Reform 9/5 ,,, Labour 9/1 ,," Latest odds , ( same source) Green 4/9 ,,,,Reform 18/5 ,,,, Labour 15/2 ,, | |||
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"Odds 6 Feb oddschecker,,,,Green 5/6 ,,Reform 9/5 ,,, Labour 9/1 ,, Latest odds , ( same source) Green 4/9 ,,,,Reform 18/5 ,,,, Labour 15/2 ,, " Interesting! Must be some private polls to put Greens so far in front. | |||
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"Odds 6 Feb oddschecker,,,,Green 5/6 ,,Reform 9/5 ,,, Labour 9/1 ,," "Latest odds , ( same source) Green 4/9 ,,,,Reform 18/5 ,,,, Labour 15/2 ,," "Interesting! Must be some private polls to put Greens so far in front." Bookies odds aren't based on the likelihood of an event happening, they're based on the amount of money people are betting. If the greens odds are that good it's because lots of people are betting on a Green win. | |||
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"Odds 6 Feb oddschecker,,,,Green 5/6 ,,Reform 9/5 ,,, Labour 9/1 ,, Latest odds , ( same source) Green 4/9 ,,,,Reform 18/5 ,,,, Labour 15/2 ,, Interesting! Must be some private polls to put Greens so far in front. Bookies odds aren't based on the likelihood of an event happening, they're based on the amount of money people are betting. If the greens odds are that good it's because lots of people are betting on a Green win." Sure but those bets may well be based on private info. | |||
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"Odds 6 Feb oddschecker,,,,Green 5/6 ,,Reform 9/5 ,,, Labour 9/1 ,, Latest odds , ( same source) Green 4/9 ,,,,Reform 18/5 ,,,, Labour 15/2 ,, Interesting! Must be some private polls to put Greens so far in front. Bookies odds aren't based on the likelihood of an event happening, they're based on the amount of money people are betting. If the greens odds are that good it's because lots of people are betting on a Green win." Very true. Also odds change a lot more quickly when there’s a small number of larger bets than a large number of smaller bets. It’s probably Gary Neville and a couple of his champagne socialist chums dropped a few grand each. | |||
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"Odds 6 Feb oddschecker,,,,Green 5/6 ,,Reform 9/5 ,,, Labour 9/1 ,, Latest odds , ( same source) Green 4/9 ,,,,Reform 18/5 ,,,, Labour 15/2 ,, Interesting! Must be some private polls to put Greens so far in front. Bookies odds aren't based on the likelihood of an event happening, they're based on the amount of money people are betting. If the greens odds are that good it's because lots of people are betting on a Green win. Very true. Also odds change a lot more quickly when there’s a small number of larger bets than a large number of smaller bets. It’s probably Gary Neville and a couple of his champagne socialist chums dropped a few grand each. " I do think Greens will win but surprised at the odds. Labour have been campaigning very hard there and seem hopeful their vote may hold. Greens probably need Labour collapse to win whereas a split left vote favours Reform. | |||
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"Al Jazeera reckons the Muslim vote is key and they are probably correct in that, but they suggest that Muslims will vote Greens - a party that is led by a Jew and is actively pro LGBTQ+. Really?" They also want to legalise all drugs, hardly a Muslim philosophy! The Green Party is a complete clown show. | |||
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"Al Jazeera reckons the Muslim vote is key and they are probably correct in that, but they suggest that Muslims will vote Greens - a party that is led by a Jew and is actively pro LGBTQ+. Really?" This is why Starmer keeps banging on about Reform being a bunch of racists. Throw enough spaghetti at the wall and some sticks. In very high Muslim areas Reform are going to struggle. Yet another reason why the left want to import as many foreign nationals as possible. Literally importing votes. Muslims tend to vote for Muslims regardless of the political party. Of course we’ll get to a tipping point soon where that block vote will control who gets put forward as candidates. Every party could feel they have to put a Muslim candidate forward or have no chance of winning. We could have a situation where the majority of MPs are Muslim. | |||
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"Al Jazeera reckons the Muslim vote is key and they are probably correct in that, but they suggest that Muslims will vote Greens - a party that is led by a Jew and is actively pro LGBTQ+. Really?" I can’t work out if you are being Islamophobic or being antisemitic… but either is not good Probably because zac has done a really good job in delineating a different because having a position on being Jewish with having an opposition for the government of Israel…. | |||
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"Why in a strong labour stronghold do you think that reform, who are basically the conservatives in disguise, would win over the greens, who have basically taken over the space that Labour have vacated under Starmer ….. Other than immigration… which reform live and die on… name another policy they have which isn’t basically Tory? You could argue that reform are to the right of the conservatives with the people that have defected… so why would working class people fall for the Jedi mind trick that Farage is a man of the people " You’re probably right, at the last election over two thirds of all Votes were for a left of centre party. Labour themselves had over half the vote. But a lot has changed since then. It’s quite possible the greens will replace labour as the main socialist party in the UK. And there’s a couple of pretenders who could replace the tories. We could have a two party system with two new previously minority parties actually being the big two. The greens are absolutely clapping their hands that Labour can’t get its shit together. And let’s face it, it’s the only reason their popularity has risen. Either that or the boob whisperer is doing a Jedi mind trick | |||
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"Al Jazeera reckons the Muslim vote is key and they are probably correct in that, but they suggest that Muslims will vote Greens - a party that is led by a Jew and is actively pro LGBTQ+. Really? I can’t work out if you are being Islamophobic or being antisemitic… but either is not good Probably because zac has done a really good job in delineating a different because having a position on being Jewish with having an opposition for the government of Israel…. " The Greens position on Gaza is explicitly pro Hamas and anti semitic so it's not unreasonable to assume many of their voters hold the same view. This policy was seen in practice when Jewish football fans were banned from Birmingham under threat of violence by the local Muslim 'community'. | |||
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"Al Jazeera reckons the Muslim vote is key and they are probably correct in that, but they suggest that Muslims will vote Greens - a party that is led by a Jew and is actively pro LGBTQ+. Really? I can’t work out if you are being Islamophobic or being antisemitic… but either is not good Probably because zac has done a really good job in delineating a different because having a position on being Jewish with having an opposition for the government of Israel…. The Greens position on Gaza is explicitly pro Hamas and anti semitic so it's not unreasonable to assume many of their voters hold the same view. This policy was seen in practice when Jewish football fans were banned from Birmingham under threat of violence by the local Muslim 'community'." They were cheering when people who smashed a cops spine with a sledge hammer got away with it. Disgusting people. I’m far from rich but if the greens got in power I’d definitely look at leaving the country | |||
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"Odds 6 Feb oddschecker,,,,Green 5/6 ,,Reform 9/5 ,,, Labour 9/1 ,, Latest odds , ( same source) Green 4/9 ,,,,Reform 18/5 ,,,, Labour 15/2 ,, Interesting! Must be some private polls to put Greens so far in front. Bookies odds aren't based on the likelihood of an event happening, they're based on the amount of money people are betting. If the greens odds are that good it's because lots of people are betting on a Green win. Very true. Also odds change a lot more quickly when there’s a small number of larger bets than a large number of smaller bets. It’s probably Gary Neville and a couple of his champagne socialist chums dropped a few grand each. I do think Greens will win but surprised at the odds. Labour have been campaigning very hard there and seem hopeful their vote may hold. Greens probably need Labour collapse to win whereas a split left vote favours Reform." I think labour, the greens and maybe lib Dems splitting their votes is reforms only chance of an actual win. I would expect the Greens will be where most disgruntled labour voters go. A Greens win is probably the least worst outcome for labour (assuming labour don't win) as they can then say Reform have been rejected in favour of a left wing party. | |||
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"Why in a strong labour stronghold do you think that reform, who are basically the conservatives in disguise, would win over the greens, who have basically taken over the space that Labour have vacated under Starmer " Lots of Labour voters are poor working families who vote Labour because they hate the rich toff Tories. Those people are badly hit by the cost of living, and they see immigrants 'taking all their benefits'. Reform are offering to solve the immigration problem and raise the income tax threshold to £20,000. I can see a lot of Labour voters switching to Reform. Yes, I know those are national issues and shouldn't be considered for local voting, but people don't vote rationally. | |||
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"I'd vote for Greens personally and I suspect they will do well, possibly going in to 2nd place." Who do you think will come first? | |||
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"I'd vote for Greens personally and I suspect they will do well, possibly going in to 2nd place. Who do you think will come first?" Polls indicate Reform. | |||
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"I'd vote for Greens personally and I suspect they will do well, possibly going in to 2nd place." "Who do you think will come first?" "Polls indicate Reform." Got it. Your phrasing suggests you think the Greens will be lucky to come in second. It seems to be that Reform and the Greens are the main contenders, with anyone else likely to come in well behind them. | |||
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"I'd vote for Greens personally and I suspect they will do well, possibly going in to 2nd place. Who do you think will come first? Polls indicate Reform. Got it. Your phrasing suggests you think the Greens will be lucky to come in second. It seems to be that Reform and the Greens are the main contenders, with anyone else likely to come in well behind them." Sorry if I was implying they'd be lucky to come in second. Imply wasn't my intention. I'll clarify. One poll is showing 30% - Reform 27% - Labour 17% - Green 6% - Con 2% - Lib Dem I think Lab will lose 8% to Green, putting Green on 25%, and Con will lose 4% which will go to Reform, putting them on 34%. I think Lab will lose another 2% going to Reform (for 36%), and perhaps another 2% to Lib Dem (now on 4%) So that looks like 36% - Reform 25% - Green 15% - Labour 4% - Lib Dem 2% - Con Major success for Reform, and I think a major slap for Labour. | |||
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"Sorry if I was implying they'd be lucky to come in second. Imply wasn't my intention. I'll clarify. One poll is showing 30% - Reform 27% - Labour 17% - Green 6% - Con 2% - Lib Dem" Now I understand. Thanks for the info. I've not been following the polls closely, and I've not heard anyone suggest that Labour might get a respectable number of votes. They weren't a possibility in my head when I read your first post. I think if that poll is right and Labour get that many votes, they can count themselves lucky. People are very upset with them, and it's just a single MP, so I can imagine their voters just staying at home. | |||
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"I'd vote for Greens personally and I suspect they will do well, possibly going in to 2nd place. Who do you think will come first? Polls indicate Reform. Got it. Your phrasing suggests you think the Greens will be lucky to come in second. It seems to be that Reform and the Greens are the main contenders, with anyone else likely to come in well behind them. Sorry if I was implying they'd be lucky to come in second. Imply wasn't my intention. I'll clarify. One poll is showing 30% - Reform 27% - Labour 17% - Green 6% - Con 2% - Lib Dem I think Lab will lose 8% to Green, putting Green on 25%, and Con will lose 4% which will go to Reform, putting them on 34%. I think Lab will lose another 2% going to Reform (for 36%), and perhaps another 2% to Lib Dem (now on 4%) So that looks like 36% - Reform 25% - Green 15% - Labour 4% - Lib Dem 2% - Con Major success for Reform, and I think a major slap for Labour. " As always the result will be down to voter motivation. While a good few Tories will probably vote Reform many will just stay at home. Very few will be motivated to turn out on the day to vote Tory. Labour voters have 4 choices. 1 Switch to the Greens. I'm sure a good number will do that but it will be the younger more woke ones that will go that way. The older traditional northern Labour voter isn't going to vote for open borders, legalising dr*gs and a tit whisperer. I also doubt that many Muslims will vote for teaching LGBTQ and transgender issues in primary schools. 2 Switch to Reform. Immigration is still a very big issue and I think a lot of the older Labour voters will (maybe holding their nose) vote Reform. Enough? Remains to be seen. 3 Stick with Labour. I think a good number will and the Muslim vote will be critical. Labour have good infrastructure and local organisation (something the Greens and Reform lack) and although I can't see them winning, we are not talking wipe out. Labour could still surprise a few people. 4 Stay at home. This will be Labour's Achilles heel. Nationally the party is about as popular as a fart in a phone box and many loyal Labour voters who wouldn't go elsewhere will just sit on their hands. The core Green vote will be very motivated and will turn out but to win they will need to attract a lot of votes from other party's. They will get some, maybe even a surprising amount. But I doubt enough. The Lib Dems will also come in to play. While they will not come anywhere near winning (will be lucky to keep their deposit) they do attract centre (soft) left votes. I doubt they will be particularly motivated but in a tight result could make a difference. So lastly we come to Reform. The party are riding high in the polls and I think their voters will be the most motivated of all. They will turn out en masse. However, like the Greens, Reform don't really have the local organisation and infrastructure on the scale of Labour and could it cost them. Especially when it comes to postal votes. Personally I think Reform will win it but it won't be anywhere near a landslide. The difference could be just a few hundred votes with (remember you read it here first) Labour actually coming second. A 12,000 majority takes a lot of overturning especially when there are two other party's in the mix. We will see. | |||
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"I'd vote for Greens personally and I suspect they will do well, possibly going in to 2nd place. Who do you think will come first? Polls indicate Reform. Got it. Your phrasing suggests you think the Greens will be lucky to come in second. It seems to be that Reform and the Greens are the main contenders, with anyone else likely to come in well behind them. Sorry if I was implying they'd be lucky to come in second. Imply wasn't my intention. I'll clarify. One poll is showing 30% - Reform 27% - Labour 17% - Green 6% - Con 2% - Lib Dem I think Lab will lose 8% to Green, putting Green on 25%, and Con will lose 4% which will go to Reform, putting them on 34%. I think Lab will lose another 2% going to Reform (for 36%), and perhaps another 2% to Lib Dem (now on 4%) So that looks like 36% - Reform 25% - Green 15% - Labour 4% - Lib Dem 2% - Con Major success for Reform, and I think a major slap for Labour. " Are those figures for polling in this constituency being discussed? or are they national polls?. If they are local to the by election area then your figures look reasonable on paper at least. If they are national polls then I doubt it will be representative of this particular area that is a strong labour territory (or at least it was). | |||
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"Televised candidates debate today. Reform Candidate: Why are events like (Manchester arena bombing) happening? Green Candidate: Because people like you are trying to divide us. Beyond mad, the Greens are now bad and very dangerous indeed. " Tory tactic proved very successful in elections gone by , now adopted and increased by reform ,,,"divide and rule"  | |||
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"Televised candidates debate today. Reform Candidate: Why are events like (Manchester arena bombing) happening? Green Candidate: Because people like you are trying to divide us. Beyond mad, the Greens are now bad and very dangerous indeed. Tory tactic proved very successful in elections gone by , now adopted and increased by reform ,,,"divide and rule" "There certainly is division in the area, not perhaps the type you mean though. | |||
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"Televised candidates debate today. Reform Candidate: Why are events like (Manchester arena bombing) happening? Green Candidate: Because people like you are trying to divide us. Beyond mad, the Greens are now bad and very dangerous indeed. Tory tactic proved very successful in elections gone by , now adopted and increased by reform ,,,"divide and rule"
There certainly is division in the area, not perhaps the type you mean though."More than likely exactly the type I mean , | |||
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"One week to go. Labour already under investigation for hosting free dinners for the Muslim 'community'. 🤦♂️" Hold up a poster of the labour candidate if you want to get fed. What could possibly be wrong with that | |||
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"Turns out Hannah the green candidate forgotten in Denton is now out canvassing for a council seat in Hale Angeliki labour candidate is a labour counsellor for Whalley Range she ran for a parliamentary seat in Chester last year I believe turn out will be high I think reform will win . " I have not had any knock on my door. I cant wait for the local elections | |||
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"Turns out Hannah the green candidate forgotten in Denton is now out canvassing for a council seat in Hale Angeliki labour candidate is a labour counsellor for Whalley Range she ran for a parliamentary seat in Chester last year I believe turn out will be high I think reform will win . I have not had any knock on my door. I cant wait for the local elections" Are you in Gorton and Denton ? | |||
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"No thanks Reform uk want a French style insurance based NHS." Interesting change of policy… because Farage was on record in loads of different interviews of being a fan of the American health insurance system Maybe he finally realised that would not fly and this is his get around | |||
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"You can't ban a general election you nutter." Heh ? | |||
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"I hate the Greens bunch of hard left communists but where have they ever said they back hamas terrorists? Like never." If you are a normal human being against Genocide then certain very strange people think you 'support terrorism' | |||
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"You know Reform uk want a French style insurance based NHS?" Can't speak for France but my German insurance based healthcare is superb. Free at the point of use and waiting lists almost unheard of. | |||
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"You know Reform uk want a French style insurance based NHS? Can't speak for France but my German insurance based healthcare is superb. Free at the point of use and waiting lists almost unheard of." I'd take French or German healtcare over NHS in a heartbeat! | |||
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"You know Reform uk want a French style insurance based NHS?" "Can't speak for France but my German insurance based healthcare is superb. Free at the point of use and waiting lists almost unheard of." Having lived in Germany, I agree. Every German I discussed it with complained that it was too expensive, but it's cheaper than the NHS, and it's a much better experience. | |||
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"You know Reform uk want a French style insurance based NHS? Can't speak for France but my German insurance based healthcare is superb. Free at the point of use and waiting lists almost unheard of. Having lived in Germany, I agree. Every German I discussed it with complained that it was too expensive, but it's cheaper than the NHS, and it's a much better experience." To be fair it is a bit more expensive than UK NI contributions but the service is much better. I had an operation a few years ago and from 1st visit to the doctor to actually having the operation was 10 days. | |||
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"Vote Green. Liking what they are offering and how they present themselves. Reform Ltd is a wasted vote, to not be represented in Parliament, just on gbeebies and other wacko far right nonsense networks spreading hate and lies while filling their pockets. Labour I could never vote for again, to right for me and Tories have never, could never be part of m voting thoughts. " So you are fine with anti semitism, legalising class A dr*gs, completely open borders and teaching trans rights to 7 year olds? Way to go NOT! Oh and not forgetting abolishing private landlords when the candidate is...yep you guessed it... a private landlord with a million quid plus property portfolio. To be fair h*pnotising tit growth is one of their better policies. | |||
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"I think a lot of people locally see through Goodwin, it’s clear he’s just a careerist and using this for personal gain rather than because he cares about people locally. Say what you want about Spencer but she’s been immersed in Manchester politics this whole time and actually knows what people want locally. At a time where we all feel incredibly disillusioned with politics, I reckon someone down to earth and local who gives a shit about what’s going on in the area counts for a lot against walking-talking click bait " Down to earth? Hasn't she just bought a 2nd home worth 750k ? | |||
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"Vote Green. Liking what they are offering and how they present themselves. Reform Ltd is a wasted vote, to not be represented in Parliament, just on gbeebies and other wacko far right nonsense networks spreading hate and lies while filling their pockets. Labour I could never vote for again, to right for me and Tories have never, could never be part of m voting thoughts. So you are fine with anti semitism, legalising class A dr*gs, completely open borders and teaching trans rights to 7 year olds? Way to go NOT! Oh and not forgetting abolishing private landlords when the candidate is...yep you guessed it... a private landlord with a million quid plus property portfolio. To be fair h*pnotising tit growth is one of their better policies. "Damn forget about the big tits ! VOTE GREEN 🤣 | |||
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"I think a lot of people locally see through Goodwin, it’s clear he’s just a careerist and using this for personal gain rather than because he cares about people locally. Say what you want about Spencer but she’s been immersed in Manchester politics this whole time and actually knows what people want locally. At a time where we all feel incredibly disillusioned with politics, I reckon someone down to earth and local who gives a shit about what’s going on in the area counts for a lot against walking-talking click bait Down to earth? Hasn't she just bought a 2nd home worth 750k ?" At least she doesn’t want to LOWER THE MINIMUM WAGE like Reform do???? What would that do to most of us? Come on now | |||
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"To be fair h*pnotising tit growth is one of their better policies. " "Damn forget about the big tits ! VOTE GREEN" You'll be disappointed. They've dropped that policy. | |||
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"To be fair h*pnotising tit growth is one of their better policies. Damn forget about the big tits ! VOTE GREEN You'll be disappointed. They've dropped that policy." 😭😭😭 | |||
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"I think a lot of people locally see through Goodwin, it’s clear he’s just a careerist and using this for personal gain rather than because he cares about people locally. Say what you want about Spencer but she’s been immersed in Manchester politics this whole time and actually knows what people want locally. At a time where we all feel incredibly disillusioned with politics, I reckon someone down to earth and local who gives a shit about what’s going on in the area counts for a lot against walking-talking click bait Down to earth? Hasn't she just bought a 2nd home worth 750k ? At least she doesn’t want to LOWER THE MINIMUM WAGE like Reform do???? What would that do to most of us? Come on now" Britain has one of the highest minimum wages in the world and now some of the highest youth unemployment rates in Europe. A small cut to the minimum wage seems a reasonable proposal to tackle this. | |||
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" At least she doesn’t want to LOWER THE MINIMUM WAGE like Reform do???? What would that do to most of us? Come on now Britain has one of the highest minimum wages in the world and now some of the highest youth unemployment rates in Europe. A small cut to the minimum wage seems a reasonable proposal to tackle this." Doesn't that mean that the taxpayer will need to subsidise those who cannot afford to live on the minimum wage? And, if not, wouldn't that mean a reduction in already parlous looking standards for millions? Which means it would be difficult to get people to vote for it. The onus should be on companies to find efficiencies, or die. This is how competition and capitalism works. | |||
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"At least she doesn’t want to LOWER THE MINIMUM WAGE like Reform do???? What would that do to most of us? Come on now" Reform also want to raise the Income Tax threshold to £20,000, which will help the less well-off. I imagine they'll arrange things so that the reduction in minimum wage will match the increase in tax allowance, so there's no drop in income for minimum wage earners. | |||
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"At least she doesn’t want to LOWER THE MINIMUM WAGE like Reform do???? What would that do to most of us? Come on now Reform also want to raise the Income Tax threshold to £20,000, which will help the less well-off. I imagine they'll arrange things so that the reduction in minimum wage will match the increase in tax allowance, so there's no drop in income for minimum wage earners." That's actually smart. The government currently gives with one hand and takes with the other. But money doesn't print itself... So where is the money coming from and going to? Clearly, companies (especially big ones) will benefit. If the employee takes home the same pay, then (when all is said and done) it's basically the government paying companies. Does Tesco really need that money from our taxes? | |||
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"Reform also want to raise the Income Tax threshold to £20,000, which will help the less well-off. I imagine they'll arrange things so that the reduction in minimum wage will match the increase in tax allowance, so there's no drop in income for minimum wage earners." "That's actually smart. The government currently gives with one hand and takes with the other. But money doesn't print itself... So where is the money coming from and going to? Clearly, companies (especially big ones) will benefit. If the employee takes home the same pay, then (when all is said and done) it's basically the government paying companies." It isn't. The government benefits go to the people, not the companies. Minimum wage is actually quite good if you're a single person living in the north. It's not so good for a family living in London, so that family gets benefits to help them live. If we upped the minimum wage to take care of the family, the single person would be living a life of luxury. The big benefit of upping the Income Tax threshold is that it takes a huge amount of people completely out of the tax system, which reduces the amount of admin work that companies have to do, and lowers the case load for HMRC. | |||
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" At least she doesn’t want to LOWER THE MINIMUM WAGE like Reform do???? What would that do to most of us? Come on now Britain has one of the highest minimum wages in the world and now some of the highest youth unemployment rates in Europe. A small cut to the minimum wage seems a reasonable proposal to tackle this. Doesn't that mean that the taxpayer will need to subsidise those who cannot afford to live on the minimum wage? And, if not, wouldn't that mean a reduction in already parlous looking standards for millions? Which means it would be difficult to get people to vote for it. The onus should be on companies to find efficiencies, or die. This is how competition and capitalism works." The proposal is just for YP minimum wage - are many of them actually receiving working tax credits ? Also younger people generally have much lower outgoings- I know young people working 40hrs on minimum wage who have more cash left than their skilled worker parents ! | |||
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"Reform also want to raise the Income Tax threshold to £20,000, which will help the less well-off. I imagine they'll arrange things so that the reduction in minimum wage will match the increase in tax allowance, so there's no drop in income for minimum wage earners. That's actually smart. The government currently gives with one hand and takes with the other. But money doesn't print itself... So where is the money coming from and going to? Clearly, companies (especially big ones) will benefit. If the employee takes home the same pay, then (when all is said and done) it's basically the government paying companies. It isn't. The government benefits go to the people, not the companies. " If companies pay less and individuals get more (or the same), then where does that money come from? | |||
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" At least she doesn’t want to LOWER THE MINIMUM WAGE like Reform do???? What would that do to most of us? Come on now Britain has one of the highest minimum wages in the world and now some of the highest youth unemployment rates in Europe. A small cut to the minimum wage seems a reasonable proposal to tackle this. Doesn't that mean that the taxpayer will need to subsidise those who cannot afford to live on the minimum wage? And, if not, wouldn't that mean a reduction in already parlous looking standards for millions? Which means it would be difficult to get people to vote for it. The onus should be on companies to find efficiencies, or die. This is how competition and capitalism works. The proposal is just for YP minimum wage - are many of them actually receiving working tax credits ? Also younger people generally have much lower outgoings- I know young people working 40hrs on minimum wage who have more cash left than their skilled worker parents ! " Oh, right... Totally agree. 16-18 (maybe to 21) should be on a sliding scale, to get them into industry. Fully agree with that. And if they're actually producing at adult levels, then they should be able to use supply/demand to get paid more. | |||
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"If companies pay less and individuals get more (or the same), then where does that money come from?" That's not what would be happening. Companies would be paying less, and the government would be taking less, so employees get the same (or more). The loser in this case is the Government who no longer get the tax they used to. The idea is that cheaper labour costs will mean that companies employ more people. That means a reduction in unemployment, and a reduction in the benefits bill, which should cover the fairly minimal tax that was raised from these people beforehand. | |||
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"Also this is not Reform policy, just something they've mooted." What do you mean by "this"? The increase to Income Tax thresholds is official policy. I don't think the reduction in minimum wage is. That seems to be just speculation. | |||
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"Also this is not Reform policy, just something they've mooted. What do you mean by "this"? The increase to Income Tax thresholds is official policy. I don't think the reduction in minimum wage is. That seems to be just speculation." Yes I meant cut to Young Persons Minimum Wage | |||
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"I’m constantly staggered that anyone could take a party seriously (let alone vote for them) when they want to cancel our nuclear deterrent, and thinks asking the other countries nicely to do the same. That shows an unbelievable level of lack of awareness of global politics. " And legalise all drugs 🤦♂️ | |||
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"I’m constantly staggered that anyone could take a party seriously (let alone vote for them) when they want to cancel our nuclear deterrent, and thinks asking the other countries nicely to do the same. That shows an unbelievable level of lack of awareness of global politics. And legalise all drugs 🤦♂️ " There is a huge difference between decriminalising and legalising something. It is the former that the Greens are proposing, similar to Portugal (have a look at the success there). | |||
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"Fingers crossed wake up Friday and reform have won this one " | |||
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"There is a huge difference between decriminalising and legalising something. It is the former that the Greens are proposing, similar to Portugal (have a look at the success there)." That's not what their leader said in a BBC interview a few weeks ago. He seems to still be pushing for full legalisation. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8g7ymq959o | |||
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"I’m constantly staggered that anyone could take a party seriously (let alone vote for them) when they want to cancel our nuclear deterrent, and thinks asking the other countries nicely to do the same. That shows an unbelievable level of lack of awareness of global politics. And legalise all drugs 🤦♂️ There is a huge difference between decriminalising and legalising something. It is the former that the Greens are proposing, similar to Portugal (have a look at the success there)." So successful none else in Europe was mad enough to follow it ! Portugal had a massive addiction problem and decriminalisation was a desperate measure to tackle this and to be fair its had some positive results by keeping people out of prison, but it certainly did nothing to break the drug trade and many would argue it made it even stronger. | |||
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"There is a huge difference between decriminalising and legalising something. It is the former that the Greens are proposing, similar to Portugal (have a look at the success there). That's not what their leader said in a BBC interview a few weeks ago. He seems to still be pushing for full legalisation. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce8g7ymq959o" He also wants completely open borders so great news all round for those in that particular business. | |||
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"Hi actually Reform uk ditched the income tax pledge please keep up pal." No they haven't, that's just the way the left like to portray it. What did happen is that Farage was asked if he would guarantee a raise to £20,000. He said that he didn't know what state the country would be in when Reform get elected, so he couldn't make any promises, but that it was a priority change to make as soon as possible. Here he is saying that in November: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gw941pp4ko | |||
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"That's bollox I found Reform uks press statement." Great! Give us a link to it so that we can all see. | |||
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"Fingers crossed wake up Friday and reform have won this one " If it was a Tory seat being contested with lots of Tory voters seeking an alternative then Reform would have a chance in my opinion. As it's a labour seat by a good margin with lots of labour voters seeking an alternative I think the Greens will be the winners. Of course we shouldn't discount labour themselves but all the recent events have not helped their cause | |||
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"One of Reform UK's campaign team in Thursday's Gorton and Denton by-election has been suspended over racist and antisemitic comments he made on social media. Quick suspension from Reform for apparently terrible comments." Adam Mitula, said to be a prominent figure in Reform UK candidate Matt Goodwin’s campaign, reportedly claimed in social media posts that the Holocaust death toll had been exaggerated and that he would “never touch a Jewish woman” | |||
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"One of Reform UK's campaign team in Thursday's Gorton and Denton by-election has been suspended over racist and antisemitic comments he made on social media. Quick suspension from Reform for apparently terrible comments. Adam Mitula, said to be a prominent figure in Reform UK candidate Matt Goodwin’s campaign, reportedly claimed in social media posts that the Holocaust death toll had been exaggerated and that he would “never touch a Jewish woman”" He really should join the Greens with awful views like that. | |||
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"Pollcheck latest 32% green 29% reform 26% labour " Looking at that, the Labour vote is quite respectful given all their woes. I would imagine if they could choose who they were to loose to (if they knew they were not going to win) then they would choose the greens over Reform | |||
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"Pollcheck latest 32% green 29% reform 26% labour Looking at that, the Labour vote is quite respectful given all their woes. I would imagine if they could choose who they were to loose to (if they knew they were not going to win) then they would choose the greens over Reform " . I would be surprised if Labour do that well although they polled over 50% at last election, so still cut in half. | |||
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"You have to wonder how the party of the working class have managed to alienate so many of the working class." Because the vast majority if not all of them have no idea what it means to be "working class". They profess to know what is best for them but consistently display a total lack of empathy or awareness of actual day to day working class experiences. | |||
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"Gladly here's the link pal. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gw941pp4ko" That's the same link I posted, in which Farage says that raising the Income Tax threshold is a priority for Reform. So it is still policy. | |||
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"Daft comment the Greens are not anti Semitic Zack Polandki is Jewish himself they are however a bunch of hard far left communists try researching your facts pal." They're a bunch of wrong uns. | |||
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"Daft comment the Greens are not anti Semitic Zack Polandki is Jewish himself they are however a bunch of hard far left communists try researching your facts pal." In communist (far left) Russia, religious Jews were persecuted, often by secular Jews who had renounced religion. (This is not a comment specifically on Polanski, just on the logic applied in this instance) | |||
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"I’m constantly staggered that anyone could take a party seriously (let alone vote for them) when they want to cancel our nuclear deterrent, and thinks asking the other countries nicely to do the same. That shows an unbelievable level of lack of awareness of global politics. " A "green" party that's against nuclear energy will always look like a group of clowns to me. Add their views on nuclear weapons, they might as well cede this country to Russia or China. | |||
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"Like I said Zack polanski is a committed Jewish Chap himself." His real name is David Paulden. | |||
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"Like I said Zack polanski is a committed Jewish Chap himself. His real name is David Paulden." He reclaimed his old family name, that was anglicised, in order to embrace his racial/cultural identity. What's interesting is that he did this while moving away from the religious aspect of his upbringing. | |||
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"Like I said Zack polanski is a committed Jewish Chap himself. His real name is David Paulden. He reclaimed his old family name, that was anglicised, in order to embrace his racial/cultural identity. What's interesting is that he did this while moving away from the religious aspect of his upbringing." I do not think he is known for the consistency of his thinking, but perhaps his chameleon qualities are part of his appeal? The Greens do seems to be popular with two radically different demographics. | |||
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