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"If you’re unhappy with the main 2 parties, why vote for a separate one (Reform), made up of former members of one of the 2 main parties? Not really change is it? I write this on the assumption that Jennerick will join Reform. Unless he plans to step away from politics?🤔" Being reported that his resignation letter was 'seen' by a colleague who dobbed him in.. He's had some pretty public spats with Zia Yusuf and others in Reform so that'll need to be managed.. He's ambitious so watch out Nigel.. | |||
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"Speaking generally, it appears that the old two party system is currently fragmenting. The right have the mainstream Tories and the 'punk' Reform. The left have mainstream Labour as well as the hippies in the Greens and the radicals in their Party. The Lib Dems need to split for a full house." By "their party", do you mean "your party"?  | |||
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"Jenrick had placed himself as so extreme he is a liability for both the tories and reform… Watch for him to be a reform mp next week "By 'extreme' I guess you mean taking positions on immigration which polls show a clear majority support. 🤣 | |||
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"Jenrick had placed himself as so extreme he is a liability for both the tories and reform… Watch for him to be a reform mp next week "He's got baggage, yes he did have support in his failed bid to lead the tories but loyalty is something written in their psyche.. Yet another tory defector when farage recently pushed back on the numbers etc.. Not an easy fit perhaps .. | |||
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Then he can position Reform as a principled party not accepting every single cast-off. | |||
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"Jenrick had placed himself as so extreme he is a liability for both the tories and reform… Watch for him to be a reform mp next week
By 'extreme' I guess you mean taking positions on immigration which polls show a clear majority support. 🤣"His views on Handsworth Birmingham, are a liability I would have thought, especially if Reform are really trying to clean up the party. | |||
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"Jenrick had placed himself as so extreme he is a liability for both the tories and reform… Watch for him to be a reform mp next week
By 'extreme' I guess you mean taking positions on immigration which polls show a clear majority support. 🤣
His views on Handsworth Birmingham, are a liability I would have thought, especially if Reform are really trying to clean up the party. "After the revelations about why Jewish fans were banned from a football match in Birmingham I think his claim that parts of the City are now social and political sectarian enclaves rings pretty true. | |||
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"Jenrick had placed himself as so extreme he is a liability for both the tories and reform… Watch for him to be a reform mp next week
By 'extreme' I guess you mean taking positions on immigration which polls show a clear majority support. 🤣
His views on Handsworth Birmingham, are a liability I would have thought, especially if Reform are really trying to clean up the party.
After the revelations about why Jewish fans were banned from a football match in Birmingham I think his claim that parts of the City are now social and political sectarian enclaves rings pretty true."Some inner city areas can be populated by mainly one demographic, that isn't a new thing however the way Jenrik referenced that left a lot to be desired in my opinion. | |||
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" Some inner city areas can be populated by mainly one demographic, that isn't a new thing however the way Jenrik referenced that left a lot to be desired in my opinion. " "...no visible white faces..." This is the giveaway. | |||
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" Some inner city areas can be populated by mainly one demographic, that isn't a new thing however the way Jenrik referenced that left a lot to be desired in my opinion. "...no visible white faces..." This is the giveaway." I believe Handsworth is over 90% non white so not an inaccurate description. If the issue is referring to colour/race then I'd happily this became obsolete in our politics. Unfortunately the political left has spent decades centering politics on race and identity and now seem outraged that others might do the same. | |||
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" Some inner city areas can be populated by mainly one demographic, that isn't a new thing however the way Jenrik referenced that left a lot to be desired in my opinion. "...no visible white faces..." This is the giveaway. I believe Handsworth is over 90% non white so not an inaccurate description. If the issue is referring to colour/race then I'd happily this became obsolete in our politics. Unfortunately the political left has spent decades centering politics on race and identity and now seem outraged that others might do the same." Coming from the only person to mention Nadhim Zhahawis colour and tried to make a deeply spurious claim that there was hostility towards him as a person of colour.. No one who criticised him mentioned anything about that.. Bit rich.. | |||
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"Speaking generally, it appears that the old two party system is currently fragmenting. The right have the mainstream Tories and the 'punk' Reform. The left have mainstream Labour as well as the hippies in the Greens and the radicals in their Party. The Lib Dems need to split for a full house." There is nothing Punk about Reform. In 1977 we punks fought the nazis and we still do. | |||
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" Some inner city areas can be populated by mainly one demographic, that isn't a new thing however the way Jenrik referenced that left a lot to be desired in my opinion. "...no visible white faces..." This is the giveaway. I believe Handsworth is over 90% non white so not an inaccurate description. If the issue is referring to colour/race then I'd happily this became obsolete in our politics. Unfortunately the political left has spent decades centering politics on race and identity and now seem outraged that others might do the same. Coming from the only person to mention Nadhim Zhahawis colour and tried to make a deeply spurious claim that there was hostility towards him as a person of colour.. No one who criticised him mentioned anything about that.. Bit rich.. " I think you may possibly have missed the sarcastic intent of that post. | |||
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" Some inner city areas can be populated by mainly one demographic, that isn't a new thing however the way Jenrik referenced that left a lot to be desired in my opinion. "...no visible white faces..." This is the giveaway. I believe Handsworth is over 90% non white so not an inaccurate description. If the issue is referring to colour/race then I'd happily this became obsolete in our politics. Unfortunately the political left has spent decades centering politics on race and identity and now seem outraged that others might do the same." The phrase: "no visible white faces" can exist in non-racist political speech. It's real and relevant and possibly true. The problem was the context: here's a list of things that make the place less than desirable. Colour. The question also needs to be asked: why are there no white faces there? Is that the fault of the residents? Presumably it's a cheap area where poorer first/second generation immigrants live, causing "white flight". Now... Lack of integration is a problem. Ghettoisation can (possibly) be a problem. Failure to respect British norms and values has definitely been demonstrated to be a problem. But would he have made the "no white faces" comment in an affluent, conservative-leaning Hindu area? What was he really saying? He's not necessarily a racist, but he's sailing pretty close to that wind. He can be right about a legitimate issue and be borderline racist at the same time. | |||
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" He's not necessarily a racist, but he's sailing pretty close to that wind. He can be right about a legitimate issue and be borderline racist at the same time."  cleverly worded by him and his ilk (And not alone by any means) to stay jusr within the law..
Then again if it walks like a duck and quacks etc.. | |||
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"Speaking generally, it appears that the old two party system is currently fragmenting. The right have the mainstream Tories and the 'punk' Reform. The left have mainstream Labour as well as the hippies in the Greens and the radicals in their Party. The Lib Dems need to split for a full house. By "their party", do you mean "your party"? "If that's what it is named, then yes. Personally not for me though. | |||
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"Speaking generally, it appears that the old two party system is currently fragmenting. The right have the mainstream Tories and the 'punk' Reform. The left have mainstream Labour as well as the hippies in the Greens and the radicals in their Party. The Lib Dems need to split for a full house. There is nothing Punk about Reform. In 1977 we punks fought the nazis and we still do. " They're only punk as they claim to want to break the establishment of the traditional parties....you could argue that they are no different than the same old lot and draw their numbers from the establishment. You were a punk in 1977, leading the fight against the Nazis? Impressive for an 11 year old. | |||
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"If Farage has any sense he won’t allow Jenrick to join Reform. Just out of badness and to cause mischief
Then he can position Reform as a principled party not accepting every single cast-off."Ah well, Farage isn’t as smooth an operator as I hoped. | |||
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"Jenrick sulks off as he can't be Tory top dog, and then decides to play second banana to Farage? Can see this ending in tears. Who next? Braverman? Probably not, too toxic and extreme even for Reform. I just don’t understand Farage’s logic in letting all these clowns in. They are all tainted by the last shit show - which won’t be forgotten in 3 years time. Gives ammo to others who say they are just tories 2.0. The Reform grass roots don’t seem too happy about it. By mugging off Jenrick, Farage would have looked stronger. Former Tory immigration minister jenrick saying the last Tory government failed on immigration. LOL. I really hope the country can see through this shit but unfortunately a) too many of them are susceptible to sound bites and b) there really isn’t a decent alternative in the middle. " In the publics eyes Labour are so bad, everyone’s forgotten about the tories now. Jenrick very active on social media. Reform will get stronger even with these bad pennies, and another 171 in small boats yesterday. Starmer is wearing dead man’s shoes. | |||
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"I am torn on his speech. On one hand, his criticism against the Tories for not owning up their mistakes and still trusting Priti Patel and Mel Stride seem valid. On the other hand, I did notice him being particularly vocal on social media over the last month and also publishing many articles on the telegraph that makes the whole thing look orchestrated. Mix that with my general cynicism against the politicians, I do find it hard to trust him on everything he said. I have to wait and see how Kemi responds to this. " He fancied his chances to oust Badenoch who wasn't really performing well, but it coincided with her suddenly becoming more confident in her own direction. He then went rogue during the summer and burnt his bridges when he was trying to show leadership qualities is how I'm seeing it. | |||
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"If Farage has any sense he won’t allow Jenrick to join Reform. Just out of badness and to cause mischief
Then he can position Reform as a principled party not accepting every single cast-off."Reform have taken him in. | |||
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"I am torn on his speech. On one hand, his criticism against the Tories for not owning up their mistakes and still trusting Priti Patel and Mel Stride seem valid. On the other hand, I did notice him being particularly vocal on social media over the last month and also publishing many articles on the telegraph that makes the whole thing look orchestrated. Mix that with my general cynicism against the politicians, I do find it hard to trust him on everything he said. I have to wait and see how Kemi responds to this. He fancied his chances to oust Badenoch who wasn't really performing well, but it coincided with her suddenly becoming more confident in her own direction. He then went rogue during the summer and burnt his bridges when he was trying to show leadership qualities is how I'm seeing it. " And all he's made himself look like after that is untrustworthy.. Farage will keep him close but this latest party is only something he will use for himself.. He makes Boris look like a man with integrity.. Maybe.. | |||
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"I am torn on his speech. On one hand, his criticism against the Tories for not owning up their mistakes and still trusting Priti Patel and Mel Stride seem valid. On the other hand, I did notice him being particularly vocal on social media over the last month and also publishing many articles on the telegraph that makes the whole thing look orchestrated. Mix that with my general cynicism against the politicians, I do find it hard to trust him on everything he said. I have to wait and see how Kemi responds to this. He fancied his chances to oust Badenoch who wasn't really performing well, but it coincided with her suddenly becoming more confident in her own direction. He then went rogue during the summer and burnt his bridges when he was trying to show leadership qualities is how I'm seeing it. And all he's made himself look like after that is untrustworthy.. Farage will keep him close but this latest party is only something he will use for himself.. He makes Boris look like a man with integrity.. Maybe.." I think the latest moves to Reform will have strengthened Farage's hand, not in the way that the defectors would have hoped though. Badenoch and Starmer must be worried that others will follow, that is exactly the message Farage is giving out too. I would think he now hopes that is leverage power has increased, and if we start to hear in the next 4 - 8 weeks of tougher immigration policies being lined up along with some sort of net zero backdown, it may indicate that he is making headway. | |||
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"I am torn on his speech. On one hand, his criticism against the Tories for not owning up their mistakes and still trusting Priti Patel and Mel Stride seem valid. On the other hand, I did notice him being particularly vocal on social media over the last month and also publishing many articles on the telegraph that makes the whole thing look orchestrated. Mix that with my general cynicism against the politicians, I do find it hard to trust him on everything he said. I have to wait and see how Kemi responds to this. He fancied his chances to oust Badenoch who wasn't really performing well, but it coincided with her suddenly becoming more confident in her own direction. He then went rogue during the summer and burnt his bridges when he was trying to show leadership qualities is how I'm seeing it. " That's more likely it. It would be interesting to see how the Tories react after the May elections. Will they take down Kemi after that looks like a clear defeat even though her performance recently has been terrify? Farage seems to bet a lot on the May elections. | |||
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"Kemi has announced that Nick Timothy is the new Justice shadow secretary. Also, just noticed Kemi's tweet about firing Jenrick: "The British public are tired of political psychodrama and so am I. They saw too much of it in the last government, they’re seeing too much of it in THIS government. I will not repeat those mistakes." "I mean, she's not wrong. But here we were all speculating about the Labour party then BOOM the Tories are back at the back stabbing bunch of hooray Henry's they've always been. | |||
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"If you’re unhappy with the main 2 parties, why vote for a separate one (Reform), made up of former members of one of the 2 main parties? Not really change is it? I write this on the assumption that Jennerick will join Reform. Unless he plans to step away from politics?🤔" Hi. Yes, Jenrick has joined Reform. Farage has been rude about Jenrick and the other ex-Tories who have joined his party. It seems that, because the ex-Tories have kudos and have experience of being in government, Farage will find them useful. What do you think? | |||
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"Killer line from Jenrick tonight - 'Labour run Britain as if they hate it.' People don't think Reform are that much more competent, honest or loyal than other politicians. They just think they like Britain and that sets them apart." And "at least they're not Labour or Conservatives, who deserve their noses rubbed in it." | |||
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"Killer line from Jenrick tonight - 'Labour run Britain as if they hate it.' People don't think Reform are that much more competent, honest or loyal than other politicians. They just think they like Britain and that sets them apart. And "at least they're not Labour or Conservatives, who deserve their noses rubbed in it."" Indeed | |||
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"A couple of chancers shift in a week, with their opportunistic drives evident, showing they've never likely been in it for anything but themselves. Not a good look "Bearing in mind Farage kept saying he sees reform as the “centre right alternative to the conservatives” I am interested to see the big labour person they said they were going to reveal next week | |||
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" Bearing in mind Farage kept saying he sees reform as the “centre right alternative to the conservatives” I am interested to see the big labour person they said they were going to reveal next week " Tony Blair is coming back? | |||
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" Bearing in mind Farage kept saying he sees reform as the “centre right alternative to the conservatives” I am interested to see the big labour person they said they were going to reveal next week Tony Blair is coming back? "No principles, ruthlessly ambitious, currently out of work...got to be Mandelsohn 😮🤣 | |||
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"A couple of chancers shift in a week, with their opportunistic drives evident, showing they've never likely been in it for anything but themselves. Not a good look
Bearing in mind Farage kept saying he sees reform as the “centre right alternative to the conservatives” I am interested to see the big labour person they said they were going to reveal next week "Is this politicians working together for the good of the country and the people who've voted for them or a soap opera booking big stars in a bid to increase ratings. I didn't buy a ticket to this circus but I find myself watching it | |||
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"A couple of chancers shift in a week, with their opportunistic drives evident, showing they've never likely been in it for anything but themselves. Not a good look
Bearing in mind Farage kept saying he sees reform as the “centre right alternative to the conservatives” I am interested to see the big labour person they said they were going to reveal next week "30p Lee was a Labour Councillor in 2015  | |||
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" They'll tarnish any name with slurs, until an epiphany that they see the Messiah " "There's no Messiah in 'ere. There's a mess alright, but no Messiah !" | |||
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"I think these moves are a blessing for the tories, and I imagine they are going to play it for all it's worth. My thoughts on their narrative must be along the lines of: We got in wrong in the past and unfortunately we still carried the baggage of incompetence amongst our ranks, until they left for Reform. Thankfully those amongst us who were more interested in themselves than party or country are now starting to appear in the same place, the place they deserve to be! These moves are allowing us to repair and move on. If you want the mistakes of the last tory government vote Reform, if you want real reform vote for the new conservatives. If I can see the above as a tool to bash Reform, their spinners must be having a field day." Plus: "...and you can be sure that all the racists have left, so we're now the nice party." | |||
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"I think these moves are a blessing for the tories, and I imagine they are going to play it for all it's worth. My thoughts on their narrative must be along the lines of: We got in wrong in the past and unfortunately we still carried the baggage of incompetence amongst our ranks, until they left for Reform. Thankfully those amongst us who were more interested in themselves than party or country are now starting to appear in the same place, the place they deserve to be! These moves are allowing us to repair and move on. If you want the mistakes of the last tory government vote Reform, if you want real reform vote for the new conservatives. If I can see the above as a tool to bash Reform, their spinners must be having a field day." I was thinking exactly the same. The power move is to face into it and flip it around. | |||
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" They'll tarnish any name with slurs, until an epiphany that they see the Messiah "There's no Messiah in 'ere. There's a mess alright, but no Messiah !"" Plenty of naughty boys though. | |||
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"Killer line from Jenrick tonight - 'Labour run Britain as if they hate it.' People don't think Reform are that much more competent, honest or loyal than other politicians. They just think they like Britain and that sets them apart. And "at least they're not Labour or Conservatives, who deserve their noses rubbed in it." Indeed " Will Reform be any better than Labour or the Tory's? On some issues yes. Most notably immigration and the hysterical net zero madness. Will Reform be the great country saving government we have been waiting for? Probably not. How well they will do in the next GE is very much open to debate but many voters will see themselves as a part of some kind of giant punishment squad and they will really want to rub the Labour and Tory noses in it. | |||
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"New stats today that 80% of arrests for theft on railway network carried out by non British nationals, also 36 % of arrests for sexual offences, 35 % of the arrests for violent crimes. The idea that immigration is not going to be a dominant idea at the next GE, or that crying 'racist' for those that discuss its negative consequences has any political capital left, seem wildly misguided to me." There is a fine line between protecting culture (good), reducing the importation of problematic people (good) and racism (bad). The Conservatives would do well to scoop up the anti-Reform-but-disillusioned-with-Labour segment by keeping to the right side of that line. | |||
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"New stats today that 80% of arrests for theft on railway network carried out by non British nationals, also 36 % of arrests for sexual offences, 35 % of the arrests for violent crimes. The idea that immigration is not going to be a dominant idea at the next GE, or that crying 'racist' for those that discuss its negative consequences has any political capital left, seem wildly misguided to me. There is a fine line between protecting culture (good), reducing the importation of problematic people (good) and racism (bad). The Conservatives would do well to scoop up the anti-Reform-but-disillusioned-with-Labour segment by keeping to the right side of that line." Agree Tories trying to go head to head with Reform is not going to work for the party or be good for the country , There's a huge number of voters stuck between hard left Labour and hard right Reform without a party that truly represents them to vote for , Sadly like myself come polling day depending on what happens in the GE party campaign season the month before ,They will most likely reluctantly vote for the most populist party in Reform as a protest vote for being ignored politically , Much the same as Brexit really . | |||
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"There was a spy in his camp who spilled the beans on what he planned " A traitor in the traitor's camp | |||
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"New stats today that 80% of arrests for theft on railway network carried out by non British nationals, also 36 % of arrests for sexual offences, 35 % of the arrests for violent crimes. The idea that immigration is not going to be a dominant idea at the next GE, or that crying 'racist' for those that discuss its negative consequences has any political capital left, seem wildly misguided to me. There is a fine line between protecting culture (good), reducing the importation of problematic people (good) and racism (bad). The Conservatives would do well to scoop up the anti-Reform-but-disillusioned-with-Labour segment by keeping to the right side of that line. Agree Tories trying to go head to head with Reform is not going to work for the party or be good for the country , There's a huge number of voters stuck between hard left Labour and hard right Reform without a party that truly represents them to vote for , Sadly like myself come polling day depending on what happens in the GE party campaign season the month before ,They will most likely reluctantly vote for the most populist party in Reform as a protest vote for being ignored politically , Much the same as Brexit really . " I agree with this. I could never bring myself to vote for Reform. At a push I could vote for Labour under Streeting but I think the country really needs a proper centre party. That is where the majority of the country sit. | |||
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"There was a spy in his camp who spilled the beans on what he planned " More like he knew it would be seen at that moment and him outed to the leader, all about how do we do this bigger fishes defection differently and maximise farages time in front of the cameras.. | |||
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"New stats today that 80% of arrests for theft on railway network carried out by non British nationals, also 36 % of arrests for sexual offences, 35 % of the arrests for violent crimes. The idea that immigration is not going to be a dominant idea at the next GE, or that crying 'racist' for those that discuss its negative consequences has any political capital left, seem wildly misguided to me. There is a fine line between protecting culture (good), reducing the importation of problematic people (good) and racism (bad). The Conservatives would do well to scoop up the anti-Reform-but-disillusioned-with-Labour segment by keeping to the right side of that line. Agree Tories trying to go head to head with Reform is not going to work for the party or be good for the country , There's a huge number of voters stuck between hard left Labour and hard right Reform without a party that truly represents them to vote for , Sadly like myself come polling day depending on what happens in the GE party campaign season the month before ,They will most likely reluctantly vote for the most populist party in Reform as a protest vote for being ignored politically , Much the same as Brexit really . I agree with this. I could never bring myself to vote for Reform. At a push I could vote for Labour under Streeting but I think the country really needs a proper centre party. That is where the majority of the country sit."
It's going to be difficult for Kemi to win the votes back after the Tories performance in their last term. She could do everything right and still lose the next GE. But the GE is still far away and she could hope that Reform does a major screw by that tim. She should do her best to win back the votes if it happens. | |||
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"A couple of chancers shift in a week, with their opportunistic drives evident, showing they've never likely been in it for anything but themselves. Not a good look
Bearing in mind Farage kept saying he sees reform as the “centre right alternative to the conservatives” I am interested to see the big labour person they said they were going to reveal next week
30p Lee was a Labour Councillor in 2015 "Flitting from labour… to conservatives…. To reform | |||
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"I think the country really needs a proper centre party. That is where the majority of the country sit." On which policies do you think Labour and the Tories are too far away from centre? | |||
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"I think the country really needs a proper centre party. That is where the majority of the country sit. On which policies do you think Labour and the Tories are too far away from centre?" Over the last fifteen years the Tories have ripped themselves to pieces on Europe and Labour have been taken over by gender and identity politics. It’s not that they are not important issues but they are not the defining motivation for the majority of the country. A party that just stops focusing on the extremes would do well. | |||
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"I think the country really needs a proper centre party. That is where the majority of the country sit. On which policies do you think Labour and the Tories are too far away from centre? Over the last fifteen years the Tories have ripped themselves to pieces on Europe and Labour have been taken over by gender and identity politics. It’s not that they are not important issues but they are not the defining motivation for the majority of the country. A party that just stops focusing on the extremes would do well." Agreed, and it is the self belief that the faithful will vote as they always do that bends their strategy to the fringes in hope of more votes. | |||
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"I think the country really needs a proper centre party. That is where the majority of the country sit. On which policies do you think Labour and the Tories are too far away from centre? Over the last fifteen years the Tories have ripped themselves to pieces on Europe and Labour have been taken over by gender and identity politics. It’s not that they are not important issues but they are not the defining motivation for the majority of the country. A party that just stops focusing on the extremes would do well." This. | |||
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"I think the country really needs a proper centre party. That is where the majority of the country sit. On which policies do you think Labour and the Tories are too far away from centre? Over the last fifteen years the Tories have ripped themselves to pieces on Europe and Labour have been taken over by gender and identity politics. It’s not that they are not important issues but they are not the defining motivation for the majority of the country. A party that just stops focusing on the extremes would do well. Agreed, and it is the self belief that the faithful will vote as they always do that bends their strategy to the fringes in hope of more votes. " Tbf I think that's what Starmer has been trying to do. He definitely toned down a lot on the identity politics and gender issue rhetoric. He even made strong anti immigration statements and policies, proscribing Palestine action, etc. that resulted in most of the progressives shifting to the Greens. The problem is his incompetence. Like those tweets about El-Fattah, his inability to keep the institutions accountable when it comes to the Israel-Palestine issues, still trusting Rachel Reeves, etc. The tories weren't any better. They talked a LOT and there was zero action. Too much drama during their term but nothing to show for. We basically need a centrist party that's also competent and capable of fulfilling their election promises. | |||
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"New stats today that 80% of arrests for theft on railway network carried out by non British nationals, also 36 % of arrests for sexual offences, 35 % of the arrests for violent crimes. The idea that immigration is not going to be a dominant idea at the next GE, or that crying 'racist' for those that discuss its negative consequences has any political capital left, seem wildly misguided to me. There is a fine line between protecting culture (good), reducing the importation of problematic people (good) and racism (bad). The Conservatives would do well to scoop up the anti-Reform-but-disillusioned-with-Labour segment by keeping to the right side of that line. Agree Tories trying to go head to head with Reform is not going to work for the party or be good for the country , There's a huge number of voters stuck between hard left Labour and hard right Reform without a party that truly represents them to vote for , Sadly like myself come polling day depending on what happens in the GE party campaign season the month before ,They will most likely reluctantly vote for the most populist party in Reform as a protest vote for being ignored politically , Much the same as Brexit really . I agree with this. I could never bring myself to vote for Reform. At a push I could vote for Labour under Streeting but I think the country really needs a proper centre party. That is where the majority of the country sit." Where do you think Reform has 'hard right' policies ? | |||
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"I think the country really needs a proper centre party. That is where the majority of the country sit. On which policies do you think Labour and the Tories are too far away from centre? Over the last fifteen years the Tories have ripped themselves to pieces on Europe and Labour have been taken over by gender and identity politics. It’s not that they are not important issues but they are not the defining motivation for the majority of the country. A party that just stops focusing on the extremes would do well. Agreed, and it is the self belief that the faithful will vote as they always do that bends their strategy to the fringes in hope of more votes. Tbf I think that's what Starmer has been trying to do. He definitely toned down a lot on the identity politics and gender issue rhetoric. He even made strong anti immigration statements and policies, proscribing Palestine action, etc. that resulted in most of the progressives shifting to the Greens. The problem is his incompetence. Like those tweets about El-Fattah, his inability to keep the institutions accountable when it comes to the Israel-Palestine issues, still trusting Rachel Reeves, etc. The tories weren't any better. They talked a LOT and there was zero action. Too much drama during their term but nothing to show for. We basically need a centrist party that's also competent and capable of fulfilling their election promises." the lib dems are in theory a Centre party but in coalition with the Tories they moved right & made themselves unelectable. If you do not stick to your basic principals the electorate cannot trust you | |||
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" We basically need a centrist party that's also competent and capable of fulfilling their election promises." Yes. Would that be too much to ask?! | |||
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" We basically need a centrist party that's also competent and capable of fulfilling their election promises. Yes. Would that be too much to ask?!" Yes, because there would be nothing to fight over  | |||
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"Labour and Conservatives have both failed that test in the last ten years, people are far more willing to roll the dice with a new party. " Can’t see any improvement from either of these party’s, mired in sleaze and broken promises. Ipsos has current government at 11% approval and Starmer at 13% approval. They are not coming back from that having continuously lied and now backtracking on key manifesto pledges. | |||
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"I think the whole centrist thing misunderstands the political, social and electoral reality on the ground. Generally people do vote for the middle ground but every few decades the centre loses all credibility and a political realignment takes place. This happened in 1945 with Labour and 1979 with Thatcher's Conservatives. I think it is clearly happening again now, due mostly to an unprecedented period of legal and illegal migration into the UK that's had huge social and economic consequences, many of them negative. From an electoral point of view the centrist argument held up when politics was dominated by the two party system, but the current fragmentation means its quite possible for a party to win a large majority with less than a third of the vote, something well within Reform's reach now. I do agree with the question of competence but as both Labour and Conservatives have both failed that test in the last ten years, people are far more willing to roll the dice with a new party. " There are 650 seats in the commons, Reform would need 326 MP's and everyone of them to win, to form a majority government, in theory. I have no idea how many they are going to field, but they have 6 MP's sitting today. | |||
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"I think the whole centrist thing misunderstands the political, social and electoral reality on the ground. Generally people do vote for the middle ground but every few decades the centre loses all credibility and a political realignment takes place. This happened in 1945 with Labour and 1979 with Thatcher's Conservatives. I think it is clearly happening again now, due mostly to an unprecedented period of legal and illegal migration into the UK that's had huge social and economic consequences, many of them negative. From an electoral point of view the centrist argument held up when politics was dominated by the two party system, but the current fragmentation means its quite possible for a party to win a large majority with less than a third of the vote, something well within Reform's reach now. I do agree with the question of competence but as both Labour and Conservatives have both failed that test in the last ten years, people are far more willing to roll the dice with a new party. There are 650 seats in the commons, Reform would need 326 MP's and everyone of them to win, to form a majority government, in theory. I have no idea how many they are going to field, but they have 6 MP's sitting today. " The 6 seats reflects our voting system - the Lib Dems got 70 or so with less votes than Reform. But once parties start polling over 30% the FPTP system starts to work in their favour, as seen by Labour's huge majority on 33% of the vote. Based on current polling Reform could easily get over 300 seats, with a majority in sight. Of course that could change a lot in next 2-3 years but it is absolutely possible. | |||
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"I think the whole centrist thing misunderstands the political, social and electoral reality on the ground. Generally people do vote for the middle ground but every few decades the centre loses all credibility and a political realignment takes place. This happened in 1945 with Labour and 1979 with Thatcher's Conservatives. I think it is clearly happening again now, due mostly to an unprecedented period of legal and illegal migration into the UK that's had huge social and economic consequences, many of them negative. From an electoral point of view the centrist argument held up when politics was dominated by the two party system, but the current fragmentation means its quite possible for a party to win a large majority with less than a third of the vote, something well within Reform's reach now. I do agree with the question of competence but as both Labour and Conservatives have both failed that test in the last ten years, people are far more willing to roll the dice with a new party. There are 650 seats in the commons, Reform would need 326 MP's and everyone of them to win, to form a majority government, in theory. I have no idea how many they are going to field, but they have 6 MP's sitting today. The 6 seats reflects our voting system - the Lib Dems got 70 or so with less votes than Reform. But once parties start polling over 30% the FPTP system starts to work in their favour, as seen by Labour's huge majority on 33% of the vote. Based on current polling Reform could easily get over 300 seats, with a majority in sight. Of course that could change a lot in next 2-3 years but it is absolutely possible." I have no idea how many candidates they have to field, do they have enough to actually make a government? If they don't all the talk of being the next government is moot, however if they do that is a completely different outlook. | |||
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"I think the whole centrist thing misunderstands the political, social and electoral reality on the ground. Generally people do vote for the middle ground but every few decades the centre loses all credibility and a political realignment takes place. This happened in 1945 with Labour and 1979 with Thatcher's Conservatives. I think it is clearly happening again now, due mostly to an unprecedented period of legal and illegal migration into the UK that's had huge social and economic consequences, many of them negative. From an electoral point of view the centrist argument held up when politics was dominated by the two party system, but the current fragmentation means its quite possible for a party to win a large majority with less than a third of the vote, something well within Reform's reach now. I do agree with the question of competence but as both Labour and Conservatives have both failed that test in the last ten years, people are far more willing to roll the dice with a new party. " I agree that immigration plays an important role here. With housing crisis and general stagnation of the economy being the next most important issues. I blame incompetence because both the Tories and Labour came to power promising to sort out these issues. Tories came up with the points based system for legal immigration which was exploited and resulted in record net immigration. They went for the Rwanda plan to solve illegal immigration problem which never took off. Starmer's policy changes should be successful in reducing legal immigration but so far, he has also failed miserably with illegal immigration. And both the parties have run out of ideas to fix the housing crisis and to rejuvenate the economy. If these parties made tangible progress in these issues, I don't think Reform or the Greens would be getting such a large vote share. | |||
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"I think the whole centrist thing misunderstands the political, social and electoral reality on the ground. Generally people do vote for the middle ground but every few decades the centre loses all credibility and a political realignment takes place. This happened in 1945 with Labour and 1979 with Thatcher's Conservatives. I think it is clearly happening again now, due mostly to an unprecedented period of legal and illegal migration into the UK that's had huge social and economic consequences, many of them negative. From an electoral point of view the centrist argument held up when politics was dominated by the two party system, but the current fragmentation means its quite possible for a party to win a large majority with less than a third of the vote, something well within Reform's reach now. I do agree with the question of competence but as both Labour and Conservatives have both failed that test in the last ten years, people are far more willing to roll the dice with a new party. I agree that immigration plays an important role here. With housing crisis and general stagnation of the economy being the next most important issues. I blame incompetence because both the Tories and Labour came to power promising to sort out these issues. Tories came up with the points based system for legal immigration which was exploited and resulted in record net immigration. They went for the Rwanda plan to solve illegal immigration problem which never took off. Starmer's policy changes should be successful in reducing legal immigration but so far, he has also failed miserably with illegal immigration. And both the parties have run out of ideas to fix the housing crisis and to rejuvenate the economy. If these parties made tangible progress in these issues, I don't think Reform or the Greens would be getting such a large vote share." . Reform taking on many of the people who fueled the causes of the failures, isn't a promising look | |||
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"Surely the whole 'Britten is broken' mantra loses its impact from a party who now in its ranks has nearly as many of those who broke it as the new saviours..?" If you break it, you own it | |||
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"Surely the whole 'Britten is broken' mantra loses its impact from a party who now in its ranks has nearly as many of those who broke it as the new saviours..? If you break it, you own it "Listening to Chris Philps on R4 this morning was vomit inducing in his 'we are the new ..' Like fuck off mate.. | |||
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"Hopefully it let's the Conservative Party move to a more centre ground and bring back true conservative values and not right wing blame everyone else culture." Centre ground, I’d rather they were underground. | |||
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"Hopefully it let's the Conservative Party move to a more centre ground and bring back true conservative values and not right wing blame everyone else culture. Centre ground, I’d rather they were underground. " Like a train you mean? | |||
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"🚨BREAKING: Senior Tory MP Suella Braverman is rumored to be in talks with Nigel Farage about defecting to Reform UK. This is gaining traction across multiple sources in Conservative and right-wing circles. Found this on social media. Can it be true " She's got the right credentials.. Apart from being another one who broke Brittin, which no doubt she will deny or say I tried to tell them..
Will that give the tories a majority now?
Handy if they want to coup Nigel.. | |||
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"🚨BREAKING: Senior Tory MP Suella Braverman is rumored to be in talks with Nigel Farage about defecting to Reform UK. This is gaining traction across multiple sources in Conservative and right-wing circles. Found this on social media. Can it be true " Hardly surprising if she defected. | |||
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"🚨BREAKING: Senior Tory MP Suella Braverman is rumored to be in talks with Nigel Farage about defecting to Reform UK. This is gaining traction across multiple sources in Conservative and right-wing circles. Found this on social media. Can it be true She's got the right credentials.. Apart from being another one who broke Brittin, which no doubt she will deny or say I tried to tell them..
Will that give the tories a majority now?
Handy if they want to coup Nigel.."Braverman did tell people the truth about the Pro Pal hate marches for which Sunak sacked her rather than the gimp who somehow head the Met. | |||
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"The 2 by elections will be interesting , I have a feeling Reform will win them both , I wonder if they will go for them both being held on the same day " Which ones are these? I must have missed them. | |||
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"The 2 by elections will be interesting , I have a feeling Reform will win them both , I wonder if they will go for them both being held on the same day Which ones are these? I must have missed them." The two that Farage will insist the 2 new members of his party will hold ( surely) | |||
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"Reform polling at 32% today, Labour down to 14%. No sign of any negative affect from new recruits." YouGov (Sky News/The Times): Reform UK around 24 % of GB voting intention, ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives in that poll. . Other major pollsters also show Reform leading or competitive, with figures in the mid-20s to high-20s range in recent national polls. . Several recent analyses report that Reform’s poll support has dipped from earlier peaks and fallen below its highest levels in 2025. . Commentary in Bloomberg and other outlets notes this is its lowest showing in months in some trackers. . Electoral Calculus MRP (13 Jan) – a broader statistical model projecting general election outcomes – placed Reform on 31 % (ahead of other parties) if an election were held now, with a large parliamentary seat projection. . Similar More in Common MRP data also projects Reform ahead with roughly 31 % of the vote and a strong showing in seats. . Some surveys show a substantial share of voters say they would never consider voting for Reform, even where its headline support is relatively strong. . So your 31% is not wrong, as other surveys indicate that too. But it's not the full picture across the whole board. You've selectively chosen the highest figure, for reasons others can only guess at (at might be wrong), but it might make others question your motives and/or agenda. | |||
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"Reform polling at 32% today, Labour down to 14%. No sign of any negative affect from new recruits. YouGov (Sky News/The Times): Reform UK around 24 % of GB voting intention, ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives in that poll. . Other major pollsters also show Reform leading or competitive, with figures in the mid-20s to high-20s range in recent national polls. . Several recent analyses report that Reform’s poll support has dipped from earlier peaks and fallen below its highest levels in 2025. . Commentary in Bloomberg and other outlets notes this is its lowest showing in months in some trackers. . Electoral Calculus MRP (13 Jan) – a broader statistical model projecting general election outcomes – placed Reform on 31 % (ahead of other parties) if an election were held now, with a large parliamentary seat projection. . Similar More in Common MRP data also projects Reform ahead with roughly 31 % of the vote and a strong showing in seats. . Some surveys show a substantial share of voters say they would never consider voting for Reform, even where its headline support is relatively strong. . So your 31% is not wrong, as other surveys indicate that too. But it's not the full picture across the whole board. You've selectively chosen the highest figure, for reasons others can only guess at (at might be wrong), but it might make others question your motives and/or agenda. " I've quoted the first poll published since Jenrick joined Reform, as that's the subject of the thread. | |||
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" I've quoted the first poll published since Jenrick joined Reform, as that's the subject of the thread." Ah ok. In which case. (Jenrick joined 15th Jan 2026.) . YouGov (18–19 Jan 2026): Reform UK polling around 24 % in a national voting intention indication (GB sample). . A Merlin poll reported shortly after 15 Jan 2026 showed around 19 % of respondents saying they were more likely to vote Reform after Jenrick’s defection — explicitly tied as post-defection polling. . The 32% should therefore be ignored as it's not relevant to the post-Jenrick joining. | |||
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Surrounded by the very people who he rants about who were responsible for breaking Brittun..  | |||
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"Braverman the latest recruit. " Cause nothing says “we are so different from the tories” more than yet another Tory defection.. Besides, do I want to vote for a party that has sue ellen as a member.. hmmm | |||
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"All these Tory defections…. Kind of has a ‘Here’s the new boss, same as the old boss’ vibe to it" Won't Get Fooled Again | |||
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"Braverman the latest recruit. Cause nothing says “we are so different from the tories” more than yet another Tory defection.. Besides, do I want to vote for a party that has sue ellen as a member.. hmmm " She was absolutely fucking clueless as Home Secretary. I still maintain what I've said for years. If you change parties, you should have the common decency to resign your seat and defend it. But "MP" and "common decency" are not words that belong in the same sentence. They're all spineless self-serving wankers. Where's Guy Fawkes when you need him ? | |||
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