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"What is the reasoning for cancelling the elections? I saw bits of stories a while back and think it may have been to do with changing constituency border lines or something like that, but not sure. How many elections have been cancelled?" The reasoning is the forthcoming re-organisation of local government. Delaying (rather conveniently) elections until afterwards. Some council elections were delayed earlier this year and if they are delayed again that would make it 2 years overdue. The government has asked councils to apply for a delay, some will take it and others won't. It could be as many as 62 councils. While I can understand the cost savings, albeit a drop in the ocean compared to other government waste, democracy delayed is democracy denied. The elections should go ahead as planned. | |||
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"What is the reasoning for cancelling the elections? I saw bits of stories a while back and think it may have been to do with changing constituency border lines or something like that, but not sure. How many elections have been cancelled? The reasoning is the forthcoming re-organisation of local government. Delaying (rather conveniently) elections until afterwards. Some council elections were delayed earlier this year and if they are delayed again that would make it 2 years overdue. The government has asked councils to apply for a delay, some will take it and others won't. It could be as many as 62 councils. While I can understand the cost savings, albeit a drop in the ocean compared to other government waste, democracy delayed is democracy denied. The elections should go ahead as planned." Well explained! A fundamental of democracy is that we elect people for a fixed, established period and we can remove them at the end of that time. These proposals fundamentally alter that principle and are pretty obviously connected to Labour's disastrous polling. | |||
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"Had it actually been Trump the usual suspects would be screaming like stuck pigs." Imagine Trump cancelling elections and abolishing Jury trials. The scenes! | |||
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"What is the reasoning for cancelling the elections? I saw bits of stories a while back and think it may have been to do with changing constituency border lines or something like that, but not sure. How many elections have been cancelled? The reasoning is the forthcoming re-organisation of local government. Delaying (rather conveniently) elections until afterwards. Some council elections were delayed earlier this year and if they are delayed again that would make it 2 years overdue. The government has asked councils to apply for a delay, some will take it and others won't. It could be as many as 62 councils. While I can understand the cost savings, albeit a drop in the ocean compared to other government waste, democracy delayed is democracy denied. The elections should go ahead as planned." Thank you. 62 councils does seem a lot and far more than I expected and some being 2 years overdue is pretty poor. Maybe Trump will be taking notes  | |||
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"Had it actually been Trump the usual suspects would be screaming like stuck pigs. Imagine Trump cancelling elections and abolishing Jury trials. The scenes!" Imagine Starmer pardoning a series of convicted criminals and assassinating suspected drug dealers in the English channel  | |||
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"Had it actually been Trump the usual suspects would be screaming like stuck pigs. Imagine Trump cancelling elections and abolishing Jury trials. The scenes! Imagine Starmer pardoning a series of convicted criminals and assassinating suspected drug dealers in the English channel "Or imagine Starmer having to make aeroplane noses just to get a girl to open her mouth so he could get his cock in.  | |||
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"Had it actually been Trump the usual suspects would be screaming like stuck pigs. Imagine Trump cancelling elections and abolishing Jury trials. The scenes! Imagine Starmer pardoning a series of convicted criminals and assassinating suspected drug dealers in the English channel "Yes I know. Biden should never have done that. | |||
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"Had it actually been Trump the usual suspects would be screaming like stuck pigs. Imagine Trump cancelling elections and abolishing Jury trials. The scenes! Imagine Starmer pardoning a series of convicted criminals and assassinating suspected drug dealers in the English channel
Yes I know. Biden should never have done that."🤣🤣🤣 | |||
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"Had it actually been Trump the usual suspects would be screaming like stuck pigs. Imagine Trump cancelling elections and abolishing Jury trials. The scenes! Imagine Starmer pardoning a series of convicted criminals and assassinating suspected drug dealers in the English channel
Or imagine Starmer having to make aeroplane noses just to get a girl to open her mouth so he could get his cock in. "I see you have been watching jimmy carr | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯" The question was with regards to delaying the next GE, not cancelling it and then only if there was a major reform going on at the time such as abolishing hereditary peers. She could have handled the question better I think. | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯 The question was with regards to delaying the next GE, not cancelling it and then only if there was a major reform going on at the time such as abolishing hereditary peers. She could have handled the question better I think." The idea that any party could delay/postpone/cancel any election outside of extraordinary circumstances such as wartime is terrifying and effectively an abandonment of democratic politics. That Labour is actually going down that road is an outrage. | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯" How likely are the two to actually happen? Wiped out is probably wishful or desperate thinking as is reform forming a majority.. But hey if your confident get on down to the bookies and back yourself..  | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯" Isn't it written into law that a GE must be held within 5 years of the previous GE. Surely even postponing it would require some law changed or other | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯 Isn't it written into law that a GE must be held within 5 years of the previous GE. Surely even postponing it would require some law changed or other " Yes, but would that be an issue for a Govt with a huge majority? | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯 How likely are the two to actually happen? Wiped out is probably wishful or desperate thinking as is reform forming a majority.. But hey if your confident get on down to the bookies and back yourself.. "Reform is even money to get most seats at next GE which seems like am exceptionally good investment, thanks for the advice! | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯" Anyone think such a daft question deserves any sort of 'answer' which will only be twisted is a bit naive.. And that's regardless of whichever party in power might be asked such as that at this point in a five year term.. | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯 How likely are the two to actually happen? Wiped out is probably wishful or desperate thinking as is reform forming a majority.. But hey if your confident get on down to the bookies and back yourself..
Reform is even money to get most seats at next GE which seems like am exceptionally good investment, thanks for the advice!"Tbh if you know that and haven't already then I doubt you will do.. | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯 How likely are the two to actually happen? Wiped out is probably wishful or desperate thinking as is reform forming a majority.. But hey if your confident get on down to the bookies and back yourself..
Reform is even money to get most seats at next GE which seems like am exceptionally good investment, thanks for the advice!
Tbh if you know that and haven't already then I doubt you will do.. "I just googled it, was amazed at the odds when Reform so far ahead in polls. | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯 How likely are the two to actually happen? Wiped out is probably wishful or desperate thinking as is reform forming a majority.. But hey if your confident get on down to the bookies and back yourself..
Reform is even money to get most seats at next GE which seems like am exceptionally good investment, thanks for the advice!
Tbh if you know that and haven't already then I doubt you will do..
I just googled it, was amazed at the odds when Reform so far ahead in polls. "Your amazed that bookmakers set the odds to suck the punters in to fleece them..?
Remember 'when the fun stops etc etc'..  | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election !" I just watched the interview and she said there would be no change to the general election. She also correctly pointed out that the date of the election would be set by the PM, as the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 was repealed by the Tory government in 2022. Trevor Phillips was being overly combative in his comfortable studio setting, talking over Turley who was in an outdoor setting. He didn't even know the latest the general election could be held - saying January 2029 when in fact it's 15th August 2029. I thought he looked extremely unprofessional. | |||
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"Labour Chair Anna Turley on TV this morning refuses to rule out cancelling next General Election ! With Reform set to win and Labour likely to be wiped out I think incredibly this is a real possibility.😯😯😯 How likely are the two to actually happen? Wiped out is probably wishful or desperate thinking as is reform forming a majority.. But hey if your confident get on down to the bookies and back yourself..
Reform is even money to get most seats at next GE which seems like am exceptionally good investment, thanks for the advice!
Tbh if you know that and haven't already then I doubt you will do..
I just googled it, was amazed at the odds when Reform so far ahead in polls.
Your amazed that bookmakers set the odds to suck the punters in to fleece them..?
Remember 'when the fun stops etc etc'.. "I think a 100% return on an almost guaranteed outcome is very generous ! 😉 | |||
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"I think a 100% return on an almost guaranteed outcome is very generous ! 😉" 1/1 odds means 50% chance rather than "almost guaranteed". To convert X to Y odds against to percentage probability calculate 100 * Y / (X + Y) . So for instance 3/1 odds gives a probability of 25%. | |||
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"I think a 100% return on an almost guaranteed outcome is very generous ! 😉 1/1 odds means 50% chance rather than "almost guaranteed". To convert X to Y odds against to percentage probability calculate 100 * Y / (X + Y) . So for instance 3/1 odds gives a probability of 25%. " Small point. Odds from bookmakers are a price not a true probability. The odds will reflect in a way what they think the likelihood will be but they manipulate the probability of an outcome to drive their sales. The example of 1/1, assuming it wins..You place a wager of 1, you win 1 and have the original 1 returned too, giving a return of 2. However you are correct the probability was 50%, but that isn't a return. | |||
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"I think a 100% return on an almost guaranteed outcome is very generous ! 😉 1/1 odds means 50% chance rather than "almost guaranteed". To convert X to Y odds against to percentage probability calculate 100 * Y / (X + Y) . So for instance 3/1 odds gives a probability of 25%. Small point. Odds from bookmakers are a price not a true probability. The odds will reflect in a way what they think the likelihood will be but they manipulate the probability of an outcome to drive their sales. The example of 1/1, assuming it wins..You place a wager of 1, you win 1 and have the original 1 returned too, giving a return of 2. However you are correct the probability was 50%, but that isn't a return. " Thank you! Also bookmakers odds actually reflect their liabilities rather than their opinion of an outcome. If few people are backing Reform at evens then they can maintain the price to attract customers, but if they took a lot of bets at that price then the price would shorten regardless of opinion polls. IMO the odds on Reform winning most seats at next election are nearer 75% than 50% so that price is currently excellent value. | |||
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"Small point. Odds from bookmakers are a price not a true probability. The odds will reflect in a way what they think the likelihood will be but they manipulate the probability of an outcome to drive their sales. The example of 1/1, assuming it wins..You place a wager of 1, you win 1 and have the original 1 returned too, giving a return of 2. However you are correct the probability was 50%, but that isn't a return." I agree and perhaps should have used the term "implied probability". You are right that bookies build in something similar to spread so that odds are slightly shifted in their favour. Bookies would have disappeared many years ago if they didn't have a profitable business model. | |||
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"Thank you! Also bookmakers odds actually reflect their liabilities rather than their opinion of an outcome. If few people are backing Reform at evens then they can maintain the price to attract customers, but if they took a lot of bets at that price then the price would shorten regardless of opinion polls. IMO the odds on Reform winning most seats at next election are nearer 75% than 50% so that price is currently excellent value." Logically if the bookies are offering evens then they must think that the probability of Reform winning the most seats is less than 50% and nowhere near 75%. I'm not sure that a loss leader model (like Aldi's xmas deal of selling 2 kg of spuds for 5p) would work for bookies. | |||
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"Fascinating that Turley said General Elections 'always come at the decision of the prime minister' which is not true. If a PM does not call a GE before the 5 years limit then one must be held by law. The implication that a GE is entirely down to the decision of a PM is extremely Trumpian and very concerning for democracy." No, it's simply to do with the now repealed Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. The next GE will be held before 15th August 2029. However, if the Labour government conclude that it would be to their advantage to call it earlier then that is now once again within the power of the PM to decide. | |||
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"I think a 100% return on an almost guaranteed outcome is very generous ! 😉 1/1 odds means 50% chance rather than "almost guaranteed". To convert X to Y odds against to percentage probability calculate 100 * Y / (X + Y) . So for instance 3/1 odds gives a probability of 25%. Small point. Odds from bookmakers are a price not a true probability. The odds will reflect in a way what they think the likelihood will be but they manipulate the probability of an outcome to drive their sales. The example of 1/1, assuming it wins..You place a wager of 1, you win 1 and have the original 1 returned too, giving a return of 2. However you are correct the probability was 50%, but that isn't a return. Thank you! Also bookmakers odds actually reflect their liabilities rather than their opinion of an outcome. If few people are backing Reform at evens then they can maintain the price to attract customers, but if they took a lot of bets at that price then the price would shorten regardless of opinion polls. IMO the odds on Reform winning most seats at next election are nearer 75% than 50% so that price is currently excellent value." Just out of interest, how much of your net worth have you bet on this? If you believe the odds are 75% when the market is pricing at 50% then the mathematically correct thing for you to do (using Kelly Criteria) is put 50% of your money on it. Something tells me you won’t have done that. | |||
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"Fascinating that Turley said General Elections 'always come at the decision of the prime minister' which is not true. If a PM does not call a GE before the 5 years limit then one must be held by law. The implication that a GE is entirely down to the decision of a PM is extremely Trumpian and very concerning for democracy." Bs..ah sorry it's the season of goodwill so ignore that .. Sir, you are talking complete bollocks if you don't know that the decision to call the GE on a certain day (after listening to advisors, trusted cabinet colleagues and the polls plus how the economy is going) has always and will always be the decision of the PM of the day.. Twas ever thus.. | |||
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"As Angela Rayner would say: Labour SCUM And Labour voters = Scum." No need for that. | |||
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"Rather surprised to see the support on here for the Trump doctrine of power. Worrying times indeed ! " Such things predate the orange man child ..  | |||
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"As Angela Rayner would say: Labour SCUM And Labour voters = Scum. No need for that." Agreed.. We can agree and disagree but such bile is unnecessary.. 
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"Fascinating that Turley said General Elections 'always come at the decision of the prime minister' which is not true. If a PM does not call a GE before the 5 years limit then one must be held by law. The implication that a GE is entirely down to the decision of a PM is extremely Trumpian and very concerning for democracy. Bs..ah sorry it's the season of goodwill so ignore that .. Sir, you are talking complete bollocks if you don't know that the decision to call the GE on a certain day (after listening to advisors, trusted cabinet colleagues and the polls plus how the economy is going) has always and will always be the decision of the PM of the day.. Twas ever thus.." This is incorrect. The PM has the power to call a GE within the five years life of a Parliament but failing that the Parliament automatically dissolves after 5 years and an election takes place. No PM has the power to call a GE past that 5 years but Turley refused to address that point clearly. | |||
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"Since being elected the Labour Govt has introduced or proposed the following which weren't in its manifesto only 18 months ago. Abolition of jury trials. Cancellation/Postponement of Local Elections. Votes for 16 year olds. Wide range of tax increases (specifically ruled out pre-election. Assisted dying Bill. All huge changes to our lives and laws. I don't think its hyperbole to think there will be more of this to come." They also shafted Waspi Women after the election despite promising them support in exchange for their vote. They've carried out huge changes that weren't put to the public and reneged on many things that they promised. I didn't vote for them, and while I knew they would be shite, I didn't expect them to become the new nasty party. | |||
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"Since being elected the Labour Govt has introduced or proposed the following which weren't in its manifesto only 18 months ago. Abolition of jury trials. Cancellation/Postponement of Local Elections. Votes for 16 year olds. Wide range of tax increases (specifically ruled out pre-election. Assisted dying Bill. All huge changes to our lives and laws. I don't think its hyperbole to think there will be more of this to come." They all do that.. Every government there has ever been and guess what, those to come act in the same way.. Been going on since the rich and privileged sat in the senate.. | |||
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"I think a 100% return on an almost guaranteed outcome is very generous ! 😉 1/1 odds means 50% chance rather than "almost guaranteed". To convert X to Y odds against to percentage probability calculate 100 * Y / (X + Y) . So for instance 3/1 odds gives a probability of 25%. Small point. Odds from bookmakers are a price not a true probability. The odds will reflect in a way what they think the likelihood will be but they manipulate the probability of an outcome to drive their sales. The example of 1/1, assuming it wins..You place a wager of 1, you win 1 and have the original 1 returned too, giving a return of 2. However you are correct the probability was 50%, but that isn't a return. Thank you! Also bookmakers odds actually reflect their liabilities rather than their opinion of an outcome. If few people are backing Reform at evens then they can maintain the price to attract customers, but if they took a lot of bets at that price then the price would shorten regardless of opinion polls. IMO the odds on Reform winning most seats at next election are nearer 75% than 50% so that price is currently excellent value. Just out of interest, how much of your net worth have you bet on this? If you believe the odds are 75% when the market is pricing at 50% then the mathematically correct thing for you to do (using Kelly Criteria) is put 50% of your money on it. Something tells me you won’t have done that." What a stupid thing to say.. sho in there right mind would put hslf of there net worth om a 25% swing... | |||
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"I think a 100% return on an almost guaranteed outcome is very generous ! 😉 1/1 odds means 50% chance rather than "almost guaranteed". To convert X to Y odds against to percentage probability calculate 100 * Y / (X + Y) . So for instance 3/1 odds gives a probability of 25%. Small point. Odds from bookmakers are a price not a true probability. The odds will reflect in a way what they think the likelihood will be but they manipulate the probability of an outcome to drive their sales. The example of 1/1, assuming it wins..You place a wager of 1, you win 1 and have the original 1 returned too, giving a return of 2. However you are correct the probability was 50%, but that isn't a return. Thank you! Also bookmakers odds actually reflect their liabilities rather than their opinion of an outcome. If few people are backing Reform at evens then they can maintain the price to attract customers, but if they took a lot of bets at that price then the price would shorten regardless of opinion polls. IMO the odds on Reform winning most seats at next election are nearer 75% than 50% so that price is currently excellent value. Just out of interest, how much of your net worth have you bet on this? If you believe the odds are 75% when the market is pricing at 50% then the mathematically correct thing for you to do (using Kelly Criteria) is put 50% of your money on it. Something tells me you won’t have done that." I'm not much of a punter but I looked up that Kelly thing which seems like a passport to the poorhouse. If I've got anything left over after Christmas I'll probably put £50 on Reform having most seats next time. I also see Starmer is about evens to lose his job in 2026 which looks like another good bet. | |||
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"I think a 100% return on an almost guaranteed outcome is very generous ! 😉 1/1 odds means 50% chance rather than "almost guaranteed". To convert X to Y odds against to percentage probability calculate 100 * Y / (X + Y) . So for instance 3/1 odds gives a probability of 25%. Small point. Odds from bookmakers are a price not a true probability. The odds will reflect in a way what they think the likelihood will be but they manipulate the probability of an outcome to drive their sales. The example of 1/1, assuming it wins..You place a wager of 1, you win 1 and have the original 1 returned too, giving a return of 2. However you are correct the probability was 50%, but that isn't a return. Thank you! Also bookmakers odds actually reflect their liabilities rather than their opinion of an outcome. If few people are backing Reform at evens then they can maintain the price to attract customers, but if they took a lot of bets at that price then the price would shorten regardless of opinion polls. IMO the odds on Reform winning most seats at next election are nearer 75% than 50% so that price is currently excellent value. Just out of interest, how much of your net worth have you bet on this? If you believe the odds are 75% when the market is pricing at 50% then the mathematically correct thing for you to do (using Kelly Criteria) is put 50% of your money on it. Something tells me you won’t have done that. I'm not much of a punter but I looked up that Kelly thing which seems like a passport to the poorhouse. If I've got anything left over after Christmas I'll probably put £50 on Reform having most seats next time. I also see Starmer is about evens to lose his job in 2026 which looks like another good bet." Actually Kelly Criteria is the opposite to a poorhouse route if you _really_ have an edge. The fact that you don’t want to bet tells me that you don’t think it is a 75% chance. | |||
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"Since being elected the Labour Govt has introduced or proposed the following which weren't in its manifesto only 18 months ago. Abolition of jury trials. Cancellation/Postponement of Local Elections. Votes for 16 year olds. Wide range of tax increases (specifically ruled out pre-election. Assisted dying Bill. All huge changes to our lives and laws. I don't think its hyperbole to think there will be more of this to come." Access to jury trials is being reduced not abolished. I agree no local elections should be postponed. Votes for 16 year olds was in the Labour manifesto - "We will increase the engagement of young people in our vibrant democracy, by giving 16- and 17-year-olds the right to vote in all elections". I don't see a wide range of tax increases. The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill wasn't in the manifesto because it is a private members' bill. | |||
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