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Global and USA recession odds 60%

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By *0shadesOfFilth OP   Man
6 days ago

nearby

Japan’s Nikkei share index has fallen nearly 9% today, and an index of Japanese bank stocks has plunged 17%.

Impacted by tariffs, Japan’s exports $140+ billion worth of goods to the United States, with the top exports including cars (($40bn), motor vehicles and parts, and large construction vehicles.

JPMorgan has ratcheted up its odds for a U.S. and global recession to 60%.

What next?

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By *lik and PaulCouple
6 days ago

cahoots

What's next?.... With the added tension potentially a global war. I don't think anything can be ruled out at the moment.

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By *idnight RamblerMan
6 days ago

Pershore

There's certain to be blip at the very least. Worse case could be a protracted recession whilst a new world order of alliances and trade emerges. America might yet come to it's senses. Interesting times.

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By *ellhungvweMan
6 days ago

Cheltenham


"There's certain to be blip at the very least. Worse case could be a protracted recession whilst a new world order of alliances and trade emerges. America might yet come to it's senses. Interesting times. "

I agree with this. I don’t think anyone can say what is going to happen - everything is just too uncertain.

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By *abioMan
6 days ago

Newcastle and Gateshead


"There's certain to be blip at the very least. Worse case could be a protracted recession whilst a new world order of alliances and trade emerges. America might yet come to it's senses. Interesting times. "

Come to its senses!

Ask yourself this?… when was the last time you heard trump admit he was wrong… on anything!

I am trying to work out what the off ramp is… because none of the big countries or blocs are going to bow to him

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By *ellhungvweMan
6 days ago

Cheltenham


"There's certain to be blip at the very least. Worse case could be a protracted recession whilst a new world order of alliances and trade emerges. America might yet come to it's senses. Interesting times.

Come to its senses!

Ask yourself this?… when was the last time you heard trump admit he was wrong… on anything!

I am trying to work out what the off ramp is… because none of the big countries or blocs are going to bow to him"

There isn’t an off ramp at the moment. It will have to be internal - his base will have to start turning against him.

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By *idnight RamblerMan
6 days ago

Pershore


"There's certain to be blip at the very least. Worse case could be a protracted recession whilst a new world order of alliances and trade emerges. America might yet come to it's senses. Interesting times.

Come to its senses!

Ask yourself this?… when was the last time you heard trump admit he was wrong… on anything!

I am trying to work out what the off ramp is… because none of the big countries or blocs are going to bow to him

There isn’t an off ramp at the moment. It will have to be internal - his base will have to start turning against him. "

Exactly, the US constitution is in 3 parts, Executive, Legislative and Judicial. Further divided into Federal and State Powers. Trump will be reigned-in if things get too wobbly, but it may take time. Stock markets down 10% roughly since announcements. Hard to see that trend being tolerated much longer.

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By *ouple in LancashireCouple
6 days ago

in Lancashire

His base think god saved him to lead them and the country to a new era of prosperity and greatness..

Some of them probably also believe when they lose their jobs and homes they can walk to one of his palatial homes and he'll take them in ..

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By *0shadesOfFilth OP   Man
6 days ago

nearby

6% off the ftse 100 this morning, £126bn hit

4.89% off the 250 index, almost another £15bn

Uk pension funds and their policy holders taking the brunt today.

Can’t see how Trump is going to unpick this, global market capitalisation reported down iro $2.5trn

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By *ellhungvweMan
6 days ago

Cheltenham


"6% off the ftse 100 this morning, £126bn hit

4.89% off the 250 index, almost another £15bn

Uk pension funds and their policy holders taking the brunt today.

Can’t see how Trump is going to unpick this, global market capitalisation reported down iro $2.5trn "

In other news the FTSE might be down 10% on the week but it is only 4% off over the year. The yearly move is not unusual.

Look at the Dax and you see it is down 13% on week but still up 6% on year.

We forget that we had a big upswing over the past 6 months - to a large degree we are just unwinding those gains. I am not saying everything is rosy, I am more pointing out that we might well not even have started to see the beginning of the slide or we might be at the bottom of it. No one knows.

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By *idnight RamblerMan
6 days ago

Pershore


"6% off the ftse 100 this morning, £126bn hit

4.89% off the 250 index, almost another £15bn

Uk pension funds and their policy holders taking the brunt today.

Can’t see how Trump is going to unpick this, global market capitalisation reported down iro $2.5trn

In other news the FTSE might be down 10% on the week but it is only 4% off over the year. The yearly move is not unusual.

Look at the Dax and you see it is down 13% on week but still up 6% on year.

We forget that we had a big upswing over the past 6 months - to a large degree we are just unwinding those gains. I am not saying everything is rosy, I am more pointing out that we might well not even have started to see the beginning of the slide or we might be at the bottom of it. No one knows."

Hmmm a bit glass-half-full. Another angle is that the FTSE was predicted to pass through 9,000 this year. At this rate it will be lucky to hold 7,000. That,s around a 25% performance deficit if true.

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By * wheel drive tractorMan
6 days ago

North Lonsdon

No rational or experienced investor is going to lose too much sleep over short term fluctuations. Markets tanked during the Covid crisis but quickly recovered. The war in Ukraine has not helped.

Let's see what things look like in two years time . No companies have gone bankrupt or cut dividends as a result of Trumps policies.

He is the democratically elected Preident of the USA and is simply implementing the policies of the voters who elected him in.

We should be greatfulll that the tariff in the UK is only 10 %. If the situation is handled correctly we may end up with zero tariffs.

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By *ellhungvweMan
6 days ago

Cheltenham


"6% off the ftse 100 this morning, £126bn hit

4.89% off the 250 index, almost another £15bn

Uk pension funds and their policy holders taking the brunt today.

Can’t see how Trump is going to unpick this, global market capitalisation reported down iro $2.5trn

In other news the FTSE might be down 10% on the week but it is only 4% off over the year. The yearly move is not unusual.

Look at the Dax and you see it is down 13% on week but still up 6% on year.

We forget that we had a big upswing over the past 6 months - to a large degree we are just unwinding those gains. I am not saying everything is rosy, I am more pointing out that we might well not even have started to see the beginning of the slide or we might be at the bottom of it. No one knows.

Hmmm a bit glass-half-full. Another angle is that the FTSE was predicted to pass through 9,000 this year. At this rate it will be lucky to hold 7,000. That,s around a 25% performance deficit if true."

I dont believe in predictions - particularly about the future.

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