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"No, it is the main party for protest votes. The tories have felt the backlash and Starmer is slowly but surely underpinning more frustration that will ripple through to Reform. However when it comes to putting X in the box people will be reluctant to vote Reform for fear of the unknown. " Got to agree that is the usual way of protest votes but I do think it's different this time. In the past disgruntled Tory voters would vote Lib Dem in bye elections but then switch back in the GE. Disgruntled Labour voters would either do the same or sit on their hands. Things have changed a lot in the last few years and people are just getting sick of main party politicians. These days can you really see that much difference between the two? We've just had the worst Conservative government in my lifetime (if not ever) and I say that as a lifelong Conservative voter and (in the dim and distant) former card carrying member. Kemi Whatshername is hiding behind the sofa, apart from being wheeled out at PMQ's she is almost invisible and party spokespersons are rarer than single bi fem's on here. The Labour party has yet to figure out that that foot shooting is not the first priority of government. With that rabble I don't think they ever will. The Lib Dems are..... er ..... I don't know. Do they still exist? Besides, they've always been the Limp Dims to me. So into that breach steps Reform. Their handful of MP's are already making more noise that the rest of the opposition combined and in Farage (love him or hate him) they have a leader who does seem to have a pretty big following. They've also pulled off one of the most difficult things in politics by drawing in voters from both main party's. No mean feat. The first bye election of this parliament is going to be very interesting and outside of London or maybe Bristol and Brighton there is no seat that Reform cannot win. At the next GE the last Tory government will still be fresh in peoples memory's and if Labour screw up big time (as I expect they will) then anything is possible. We will see. | |||
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"However when it comes to putting X in the box people will be reluctant to vote Reform for fear of the unknown. " People know what the Tories are like, having just had a long run of them. They're getting to know what Labour are like, with the papers gleefully reporting every minor slip. It could be when the next election arrives that people will consider 'the unknown' to be preferable to what they've experienced so far. | |||
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"They only have 5 mp’s they are nowhere near to being the main opposition, if it came to another election then it would only split the conservative vote and pretty much guarantee labour another win. " I get that and there is some truth in it. However, as I posted above, Reform are pulling in voters from Labour as well. It's fair to say that at the last GE people voted to get the Tories out and Labour benefited from that. They were seen as a clean and competent pair of hands and they won. Six months down the line and their hands are far from clean and not even remotely competent. | |||
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"I watched their party political broadcast. I have no idea from that of what their policies are. " I haven't seen it yet but continue to waste my time listening to the pre-prepared rubbish from the other 3 parties and ask myself why I bother? I, as well as shed loads of others are at the point of leaving...and the UK is in shit if we do | |||
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"Let's say trump offered ferage a gig in America he would go like a shot, without him able to provide the oxygen for reform all their members will be left with is their direct debit for membership. Anderson can get some attention by being unpleasant and making a dick of himself, tice is hasn't got the pr skills and I can't even name the other MPs they have who can fill the void" Firstly the likelihood of Trump offering him a "gig" is extremely remote. Giving a job to a limey would not sit well with "Make America Great Again". Secondly even if such a thing happened I don't think Farage would take it. I think he's happy being a big fish in a small pond. On the other side of the big pond he wouldn't be very significant and he knows it. After the next GE who knows what he will do? If Reform does well I think he will stick around if not then not. But as Harold Wilson famously said. "A week is a long time in politics". | |||
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"However when it comes to putting X in the box people will be reluctant to vote Reform for fear of the unknown. People know what the Tories are like, having just had a long run of them. They're getting to know what Labour are like, with the papers gleefully reporting every minor slip. It could be when the next election arrives that people will consider 'the unknown' to be preferable to what they've experienced so far." My thoughts exactly. I think I'd vote for reform out of desperation in "drastic situations call for drastic measures" way, I can't see how much more mismanagement of the country it can take. God knows what state the country will be in come the next general election | |||
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"They only have 5 mp’s they are nowhere near to being the main opposition, if it came to another election then it would only split the conservative vote and pretty much guarantee labour another win. " 4.2 million votes 5 mp’s Rigged system | |||
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"No, it is the main party for protest votes. The tories have felt the backlash and Starmer is slowly but surely underpinning more frustration that will ripple through to Reform. However when it comes to putting X in the box people will be reluctant to vote Reform for fear of the unknown. Got to agree that is the usual way of protest votes but I do think it's different this time. In the past disgruntled Tory voters would vote Lib Dem in bye elections but then switch back in the GE. Disgruntled Labour voters would either do the same or sit on their hands. Things have changed a lot in the last few years and people are just getting sick of main party politicians. These days can you really see that much difference between the two? We've just had the worst Conservative government in my lifetime (if not ever) and I say that as a lifelong Conservative voter and (in the dim and distant) former card carrying member. Kemi Whatshername is hiding behind the sofa, apart from being wheeled out at PMQ's she is almost invisible and party spokespersons are rarer than single bi fem's on here. The Labour party has yet to figure out that that foot shooting is not the first priority of government. With that rabble I don't think they ever will. The Lib Dems are..... er ..... I don't know. Do they still exist? Besides, they've always been the Limp Dims to me. So into that breach steps Reform. Their handful of MP's are already making more noise that the rest of the opposition combined and in Farage (love him or hate him) they have a leader who does seem to have a pretty big following. They've also pulled off one of the most difficult things in politics by drawing in voters from both main party's. No mean feat. The first bye election of this parliament is going to be very interesting and outside of London or maybe Bristol and Brighton there is no seat that Reform cannot win. At the next GE the last Tory government will still be fresh in peoples memory's and if Labour screw up big time (as I expect they will) then anything is possible. We will see." Solid argument 
The challenge for Reform is attracting MP's to fill all the constituencies and be capable enough of becoming ministers that would go on to form a government, all in the next 3 - 4 years.
I can't see them doing that and that takes them out to year 10 before any real challenge can be in place, will they still be relevant in 10 years? If they are I think we will have a lot to worry about. | |||
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"However when it comes to putting X in the box people will be reluctant to vote Reform for fear of the unknown. People know what the Tories are like, having just had a long run of them. They're getting to know what Labour are like, with the papers gleefully reporting every minor slip. It could be when the next election arrives that people will consider 'the unknown' to be preferable to what they've experienced so far." I can't argue with that, it played out at the last GE. | |||
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"I watched their party political broadcast. I have no idea from that of what their policies are. " I'm still unsure whether they have any policies that a governing party would need. I can't be alone in not knowing what they are and can thus only really view them as a protest vote party. | |||
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"For the past 20 years, including last year, we have voted on promises which were either never delivered or the opposite was done. Most recent example is council tax increases, labour promised to freeze them but have instead frozen pensioners and raised council tax. " And there we have a perfect example of misinformation and lies. When did labour promise to freeze CT and what was the context? Here is the context from 2023. "Labour would freeze council tax this year if it was in government, the party has announced as it launches its local elections campaign." So, in 2023, labour said that if it was in government THEN they would have frozen council tax THAT year. That's what opposition parties do. They say what they would at that time. This was in response to energy prices we had experienced. Essentially, it was an extension to the Tories handing us money for our energy bills. No doubt, you get your news from GBeebies or tiktok. | |||
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"For the past 20 years, including last year, we have voted on promises which were either never delivered or the opposite was done. Most recent example is council tax increases, labour promised to freeze them but have instead frozen pensioners and raised council tax. And there we have a perfect example of misinformation and lies. When did labour promise to freeze CT and what was the context? Here is the context from 2023. "Labour would freeze council tax this year if it was in government, the party has announced as it launches its local elections campaign." So, in 2023, labour said that if it was in government THEN they would have frozen council tax THAT year. That's what opposition parties do. They say what they would at that time. This was in response to energy prices we had experienced. Essentially, it was an extension to the Tories handing us money for our energy bills. No doubt, you get your news from GBeebies or tiktok. " Mostly correct, but you have missed out the part that he said he would fund this by "closing loopholes in the windfall tax on energy companies", aiming to alleviate the financial burden on households. But he has not done that now he is in power, he carried on as per. | |||
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"For the past 20 years, including last year, we have voted on promises which were either never delivered or the opposite was done. Most recent example is council tax increases, labour promised to freeze them but have instead frozen pensioners and raised council tax. And there we have a perfect example of misinformation and lies. When did labour promise to freeze CT and what was the context? Here is the context from 2023. "Labour would freeze council tax this year if it was in government, the party has announced as it launches its local elections campaign." So, in 2023, labour said that if it was in government THEN they would have frozen council tax THAT year. That's what opposition parties do. They say what they would at that time. This was in response to energy prices we had experienced. Essentially, it was an extension to the Tories handing us money for our energy bills. No doubt, you get your news from GBeebies or tiktok. Mostly correct, but you have missed out the part that he said he would fund this by "closing loopholes in the windfall tax on energy companies", aiming to alleviate the financial burden on households. But he has not done that now he is in power, he carried on as per." For real? Why does he need to fund something now that expired before he was PM? 
Now, I guess you are referring to the _anifesto pledge for a windfall tax on energy companies? Well, he does have over 4 years to do it. But, perhaps now isn't the right time? Don't you agree? | |||
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