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"Victories for the right in Canada and Germany in 25." Not sure about Canada but Germany is looking very much like CDU/CSU (centre right) teaming up with the Greens. Support for SPD (centre left) has slumped with no sign of a resurgence and the FDP (think Lib Dems) will be lucky to make the 5% threshold. Ditto the hard left Die Linke. AFD (right wing) will make more inroads (especially in the east) but probably not enough to win it. Wild card could be Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW. Polling at between 5 & 8% if she beats the 5% threshold her handful of MP's could hold the balance. The dream ticket would be CDU/CSU with AFD but I doubt it will happen. Oh the joys of a PR electoral system.  | |||
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"A complete meltdown by the left on a global footing, post Jan 20th. Liberal elitists and their far left campaigners will finally start to become background noise as the media struggle to find their audiences. European countries will start to agree the refugee convention needs to be rewritten, to reflect modern times and remove loopholes. China will be testing the water with Trump on Taiwan and tariffs. Trump will dominate that space. Putin will call on Ukraine to relinquish the land they have now lost for a ceasefire, knowing Trump will slow aid and weapons. This will bring an end to the war. Israel will slow its advances and a new accord will be agreed with Washington brokering the deal. The UK will be in hard recession during Q4 of 2025, it will be a slow walk into the deepest part of the recession, and Starmer will be on the edge of stepping down. " Think a lot of that is likely. | |||
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"A complete meltdown by the left on a global footing, post Jan 20th. Liberal elitists and their far left campaigners will finally start to become background noise as the media struggle to find their audiences. European countries will start to agree the refugee convention needs to be rewritten, to reflect modern times and remove loopholes. China will be testing the water with Trump on Taiwan and tariffs. Trump will dominate that space. Putin will call on Ukraine to relinquish the land they have now lost for a ceasefire, knowing Trump will slow aid and weapons. This will bring an end to the war. Israel will slow its advances and a new accord will be agreed with Washington brokering the deal. The UK will be in hard recession during Q4 of 2025, it will be a slow walk into the deepest part of the recession, and Starmer will be on the edge of stepping down. " Yes, I wouldn't argue with any of that. I think the migrant crisis will dominate the German election in February. The CDU/CSU have already started stealing some of AFD's clothes so I would expect a crackdown in Germany as the year goes on. I would expect other countries to follow. Hard recession in the UK. Oh I really see that one coming and it won't be pretty. I think Trump will bang a few heads together and be able to sort something in Ukraine. We'll see how that one pans out. As for Israel I'm not so sure. You could be right but the region is so volatile it's anyones guess where it will go. | |||
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" The UK will be in hard recession during Q4 of 2025, it will be a slow walk into the deepest part of the recession, and Starmer will be on the edge of stepping down. " Do we think it will get that bad ? Will they not intervene before then, BoE rate falls, unpick some of the budget. Something for housing and motor sales markets ? If it goes really sour, at that point after 18 months in office, blaming tories then will be laughable, they will not be re-elected | |||
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" The UK will be in hard recession during Q4 of 2025, it will be a slow walk into the deepest part of the recession, and Starmer will be on the edge of stepping down. Do we think it will get that bad ? Will they not intervene before then, BoE rate falls, unpick some of the budget. Something for housing and motor sales markets ? If it goes really sour, at that point after 18 months in office, blaming tories then will be laughable, they will not be re-elected " Yes I do think it will be that bad. Reeves has very little wriggle room. The UK has pretty much reached its borrowing limit without having to pay punitive interest rates and more tax rises will just dig the country into a deeper hole. Add to that a round of public sector pay claims, the unions will want their pound of flesh, and all the signs are there. The UK will be in recession by the 4th Qtr of 2025 maybe even by the 3rd Qtr. As I said on another thread: We will look back at zero growth with fond memorys this time next year. | |||
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" The UK will be in hard recession during Q4 of 2025, it will be a slow walk into the deepest part of the recession, and Starmer will be on the edge of stepping down. Do we think it will get that bad ? Will they not intervene before then, BoE rate falls, unpick some of the budget. Something for housing and motor sales markets ? If it goes really sour, at that point after 18 months in office, blaming tories then will be laughable, they will not be re-elected Yes I do think it will be that bad. Reeves has very little wriggle room. The UK has pretty much reached its borrowing limit without having to pay punitive interest rates and more tax rises will just dig the country into a deeper hole. Add to that a round of public sector pay claims, the unions will want their pound of flesh, and all the signs are there. The UK will be in recession by the 4th Qtr of 2025 maybe even by the 3rd Qtr. As I said on another thread: We will look back at zero growth with fond memorys this time next year." Some of the early predictions was that 2025 and early 2026 would see above average growth, mostly down to the amount of money the government plan to pump into the economy which sounds plausible. Now I am thinking the economic boost will not show above average growth as it will be swallowed up keeping the economy just above recession at best. Unfortunately that sort of spending does not last and the following years could be harder | |||
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"World surprisingly pulls together in the face of unexpected alien invasion. "Love an Optimist ! | |||
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"A complete meltdown by the left on a global footing, post Jan 20th. Liberal elitists and their far left campaigners will finally start to become background noise as the media struggle to find their audiences. European countries will start to agree the refugee convention needs to be rewritten, to reflect modern times and remove loopholes. China will be testing the water with Trump on Taiwan and tariffs. Trump will dominate that space. Putin will call on Ukraine to relinquish the land they have now lost for a ceasefire, knowing Trump will slow aid and weapons. This will bring an end to the war. Israel will slow its advances and a new accord will be agreed with Washington brokering the deal. The UK will be in hard recession during Q4 of 2025, it will be a slow walk into the deepest part of the recession, and Starmer will be on the edge of stepping down. " Most sensible and believable post on this thread | |||
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