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"Rachel Reeves has dropped her strongest hint yet that she is planning to raise employer national insurance contributions in the budget, prompting accusations Labour is about to break a manifesto promise. With nearly six million people employed in the public sector won’t this be self defeating ? Every skint government agency will have higher costs " Moreover, higher employment costs will be passed on to consumers and will stoke inflation. It's like being ruled by a Year 10 GCSE politics class. | |||
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"Rachel Reeves has dropped her strongest hint yet that she is planning to raise employer national insurance contributions in the budget, prompting accusations Labour is about to break a manifesto promise. With nearly six million people employed in the public sector won’t this be self defeating ? Every skint government agency will have higher costs Moreover, higher employment costs will be passed on to consumers and will stoke inflation. It's like being ruled by a Year 10 GCSE politics class." Year 10 GCSE ? They must have improved then  | |||
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"Maybe the country couldn’t afford the NI cuts the last government brought in. It’s almost like they knew they were on the way out and could promise the earth." Apparently the NIC cut from Hunt cost the Exchequer approx £20bn. Hmmm wonder where we heard that figure before? | |||
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"Maybe the country couldn’t afford the NI cuts the last government brought in. It’s almost like they knew they were on the way out and could promise the earth. Apparently the NIC cut from Hunt cost the Exchequer approx £20bn. Hmmm wonder where we heard that figure before?" Hiding in plain sight – the latest Resolution Foundation election briefing, funded by the Nuffield Foundation, says £23 billion a year of post-election tax rises – equivalent to around £800 per household – have already been announced (in Tory 2024 budget - Jeremy Hunt) Part of the tories highest tax rises since 1946, which will add £175bn annually in tax payable by 2028/9). Unsure if this figure includes the Conservative government tax cut of £20bn by slashing the rate of employee National Insurance. | |||
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"How else can they try to improve things if they don't raise taxes? " The tax to GDP ratio is projected to increase to 37.1% by 2028/29, which would be the highest level since 1948. In addition the perpetual £2.6trn net public debt is 100% of gross domestic product (GDP), which is the highest level since the 1960s, equivalent to £100,000 per household. Reeves is reportedly about to change the fiscal rules to increase borrowing further, as well as the tax rises. For balance £1.7trn of that debt has been added under the tories along with the highest tax rises since 1948. | |||
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"Maybe the country couldn’t afford the NI cuts the last government brought in. It’s almost like they knew they were on the way out and could promise the earth. Apparently the NIC cut from Hunt cost the Exchequer approx £20bn. Hmmm wonder where we heard that figure before?" Are you suggesting this is the reason for every labour MP and minister to religiously quote we inherited a £22 billion blackhole ? If you are how have you managed to get this information, because they have refused every single freedom of information request to show what the deficit is and what is behind the figures. Meanwhile, while the public are gleefully reciting the £22 billion blackhole mantra, Labour spend 4 times that amount on pay rises, foreign aid, and whimsical vanity projects that have no structure other than headlines. Makes news of pending tax rises and removing WFA all the more palatable doesn’t it | |||
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"Maybe the country couldn’t afford the NI cuts the last government brought in. It’s almost like they knew they were on the way out and could promise the earth. Apparently the NIC cut from Hunt cost the Exchequer approx £20bn. Hmmm wonder where we heard that figure before? Are you suggesting this is the reason for every labour MP and minister to religiously quote we inherited a £22 billion blackhole ? If you are how have you managed to get this information, because they have refused every single freedom of information request to show what the deficit is and what is behind the figures. Meanwhile, while the public are gleefully reciting the £22 billion blackhole mantra, Labour spend 4 times that amount on pay rises, foreign aid, and whimsical vanity projects that have no structure other than headlines. Makes news of pending tax rises and removing WFA all the more palatable doesn’t it " Reversing the Hunt NIC cut would put back c.£20bn plugging the in year blackhole. As it is Labour backed themselves into a corner through manifesto pledges. So they now need to tinker around with a variety of things to raise the income and that causes a range of linked and, in most cases, unintended consequences. As per a post above, Hunt also had a variety of tax rises planned for post election. | |||
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"How else can they try to improve things if they don't raise taxes? " Deal with illegal migration so we aren’t footing the bill for the world’s economic migrants. Get a grip of the NHS and stop treating like a religion and restructure it to work effectively. Get a grip of the benefits bill and benefits culture. All practical solutions to get spending under control, just wait for the confected outrage and mentions of “Reform” and “Brexit” and the insinuation I goose-step to my waredrobe full of brown shirts. | |||
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"Many of the posts on this thread are incorrect. The annual cost of the NI reduction is freely available from the OBR, and was costed at £9.4 billion annually. This was offset by fiscal drag primarily through freezing of personal allowances. In other words, the Hunt budget was all smoke and mirrors and was fiscally neutral. Labour is another story again and everyone will have to await the budget announcement (or more likely prior leaks) to assess the impact." Wasn’t the £9.4bn the cost of the two NIC cuts in April 2024 but that came off the back of another cut in the previous autumn so it is the total that is key surely? | |||
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"Rachel Reeves has dropped her strongest hint yet that she is planning to raise employer national insurance contributions in the budget, prompting accusations Labour is about to break a manifesto promise. With nearly six million people employed in the public sector won’t this be self defeating ? Every skint government agency will have higher costs " I am not sure the Civil Service actually pay NI. I know they show it coming off the employees pay but why raise real taxes to pay an employee only to take it off later? So it is notional not actual like the Civil Service pensions which are taken from Tax each year and not stored in a fund. | |||
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"Rachel Reeves has dropped her strongest hint yet that she is planning to raise employer national insurance contributions in the budget, prompting accusations Labour is about to break a manifesto promise. With nearly six million people employed in the public sector won’t this be self defeating ? Every skint government agency will have higher costs I am not sure the Civil Service actually pay NI. I know they show it coming off the employees pay but why raise real taxes to pay an employee only to take it off later? So it is notional not actual like the Civil Service pensions which are taken from Tax each year and not stored in a fund." No, it is paid across the whole public sector. Just like the public sector pays VAT, vehicle duties, duties on fuel etc. You could credibly argue it’s a zero sum game in that each department’s budget has to include the costs of taxation which are collected via an expensive mechanism in a circular motion from Treasury (setting/allocating budgets) - department expenditure attracting taxes - taxes collected from the departnment and paid to the treasury - tax receipts for the departmental budget. | |||
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"“Starmer rejects Tory claim raising employers’ national insurance would break manifesto promise” Looks like this is happening then. " Yes it's looking more and more likely to be raised. I guess their excuse will be pointing to the pledge not to raise taxes on workers and say the NI pledge only meant employees. However when they made the pledge about NI it was not to raise it. They did not say that only applied to employees before the election so could be seen as a broken pledge. The tricky bit could be selling it to businesses after telling them the government back growth and now make it more expensive to employ people. | |||
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"“Starmer rejects Tory claim raising employers’ national insurance would break manifesto promise” Looks like this is happening then. Yes it's looking more and more likely to be raised. I guess their excuse will be pointing to the pledge not to raise taxes on workers and say the NI pledge only meant employees. However when they made the pledge about NI it was not to raise it. They did not say that only applied to employees before the election so could be seen as a broken pledge. The tricky bit could be selling it to businesses after telling them the government back growth and now make it more expensive to employ people." If it happens, like the pensioners fuel grab, it’s deceitful tactics and not in the manifesto. After the free clothes, the Taylor Swift tickets, Reeves personal £3700 energy claim, Rayners New York holiday in a donors second home while lecturing landlords here I don’t think it’s a good look at all. Labours ratings and Rayner/reeves/starmers ratings have dropped significantly. | |||
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"Let’s not kid ourselves the last two NI cuts were unfunded " That doesn't excuse Labour doing the opposite of a key pledge. | |||
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"Let’s not kid ourselves the last two NI cuts were unfunded That doesn't excuse Labour doing the opposite of a key pledge. " They haven’t. | |||
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"Let’s not kid ourselves the last two NI cuts were unfunded That doesn't excuse Labour doing the opposite of a key pledge. They haven’t." Not yet they haven't. The budget is in a couple of weeks. | |||
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"Maybe the country couldn’t afford the NI cuts the last government brought in. It’s almost like they knew they were on the way out and could promise the earth." May be this shower of freebie grabbing champagne socialists so honour the pledges their promised. Like not increasing NI. | |||
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"How else can they try to improve things if they don't raise taxes? Deal with illegal migration so we aren’t footing the bill for the world’s economic migrants. Get a grip of the NHS and stop treating like a religion and restructure it to work effectively. Get a grip of the benefits bill and benefits culture. All practical solutions to get spending under control, just wait for the confected outrage and mentions of “Reform” and “Brexit” and the insinuation I goose-step to my waredrobe full of brown shirts. " ----------------------------------------- Amazing, you appear to have all the answers including an accurate assessment of your own philosophy! | |||
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"Maybe the country couldn’t afford the NI cuts the last government brought in. It’s almost like they knew they were on the way out and could promise the earth. May be this shower of freebie grabbing champagne socialists so honour the pledges their promised. Like not increasing NI. " They are already lining up the excuse: “We said we would not increase taxes on working people. Employer NIC is not paid by the employee” Except that is if you are an inside IR35 contractor with no latitude to increase the day rate. And it will be seen as a “tax on jobs” because it will be more expensive to employ people. So less new hires? Is there a small silver lining? Wage growth will further reduce as businesses cannot afford an NIC rise and pay rise. That will be reflected in inflation figures possibly leading to BoE giving further base rate cuts 🤔 | |||
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"Maybe the country couldn’t afford the NI cuts the last government brought in. It’s almost like they knew they were on the way out and could promise the earth." That's why they refused to negotiate with stirrers, knowing they were just kicking the can further down the road for someone else to sort out. Nevermind the 9bn per annum it was costing the country in loss of producitivity, they appear to have wanted this to be someone else's problem. Mrs x | |||
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"she worked as an economist for bank of england didnt she? about right lol" I don't think she was very successful either. This will just put up the cost to the consumer. | |||
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