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"Reported on the BBC that U.K. economy fared better than initially reported in the aftermath of Covid. Revised figures indicate that far from being the bottom of the G7, the U.K. grew faster than Germany. " Looks like this year will also be higher than Germany. Anyway good news | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards." Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards." Let's wait until Oct 31st to see 2022 figures. Then we can say Brexit has hit us by 4% again | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! " I was right on nazis. I proved I was You jave seen me admit when it as wrong on here. The problem for most is. They simply read headlines and not the articles nor do they visit the source data. Let alone attempt to understand. You dont need to be an expert just take time out the day to read whay you're going to quote. Sadly for the cowards. They never did that. It's why we see so m | |||
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"The posters I expected not to be in here, are not here. That’s the most telling part of this, not an ounce of interest when things are going in a positive direction for the country. " Yes fabtastic deleted his account. Normally hovis was decent. But he really dug in on farage then once farage was proven correct never came back. And I think now has delete dhis profile? Easy uk. Still lurks. I visited his profile a d he's been online over the last few week and 4 hours ago. I guess his pride won't let him comment | |||
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"Morley I will choose to respond on this sole occasion, because I’m feeling generous. You accused me of being a liar regarding my family and my job. When I proved you wrong, you refused to apologise. You’re not worth the steam off my piss, mucker. I long for the day the fabs forum has a proper block function. " You said you had a drink brother. I do not know that you simply supplied a Dr with the same name. I can do the same. You said you had 20 years or management in trains. You sent a train drivers license. These things were not proof of your claims | |||
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"The posters I expected not to be in here, are not here. That’s the most telling part of this, not an ounce of interest when things are going in a positive direction for the country. " It's not really positive, just not as shit. I remember years back being on here and people predicting the pound Vs europe would be 1.35 in 2019 non of these are here anymore. Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country . | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! " What was said about Nazis? I dread this. | |||
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"The posters I expected not to be in here, are not here. That’s the most telling part of this, not an ounce of interest when things are going in a positive direction for the country. It's not really positive, just not as shit. I remember years back being on here and people predicting the pound Vs europe would be 1.35 in 2019 non of these are here anymore. Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country ." It's extremely positive. Many took GREAT joy and glee believing the uk was 4% under where it would have been had we been I the e.u. This blows thay ship out the water. They believed we were the worst performing economy of the g7...our survey says eurgh eurgh. | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! I was right on nazis. I proved I was You jave seen me admit when it as wrong on here. The problem for most is. They simply read headlines and not the articles nor do they visit the source data. Let alone attempt to understand. You dont need to be an expert just take time out the day to read whay you're going to quote. Sadly for the cowards. They never did that. It's why we see so m" Fuck me you are a piece of work. You were totally wrong about the Nazis. Shown to be completely wrong. You had no way of backing up your argument and your only points did not remotely take into consideration the context of the times. You made a very poor and superficial argument then ran away when confronted by overwhelming evidence and considered argument. Totally laughable! | |||
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"The posters I expected not to be in here, are not here. That’s the most telling part of this, not an ounce of interest when things are going in a positive direction for the country. It's not really positive, just not as shit. I remember years back being on here and people predicting the pound Vs europe would be 1.35 in 2019 non of these are here anymore. Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country . It's extremely positive. Many took GREAT joy and glee believing the uk was 4% under where it would have been had we been I the e.u. This blows thay ship out the water. They believed we were the worst performing economy of the g7...our survey says eurgh eurgh. " You think we are economically better off outside the EU? | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! I was right on nazis. I proved I was You jave seen me admit when it as wrong on here. The problem for most is. They simply read headlines and not the articles nor do they visit the source data. Let alone attempt to understand. You dont need to be an expert just take time out the day to read whay you're going to quote. Sadly for the cowards. They never did that. It's why we see so m Fuck me you are a piece of work. You were totally wrong about the Nazis. Shown to be completely wrong. You had no way of backing up your argument and your only points did not remotely take into consideration the context of the times. You made a very poor and superficial argument then ran away when confronted by overwhelming evidence and considered argument. Totally laughable!" What did he say about them? | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country." Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing." Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers, here's and example of the ins referencing a trade barrier in a report, "The terms of the TCA are yet to be implemented in full, meaning trade barriers will rise further as more of the deal comes into force. For example, the introduction of full checks on UK imports has recently" | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country." "Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing." "Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ..." Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages." You say no and then later admit there are barriers! I doubt you find any Economist outside of Minford that would agree with your idea that the EU was a trade barrier but I'm sure the real world will prove one of us right in the next few years | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages." Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU." The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical." Could you back this up with anything? Like long term studies or credible forecast? What are your opinions on Climate change? | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. Could you back this up with anything? Like long term studies or credible forecast? What are your opinions on Climate change?" Credible forecast... that's funny Have you not seen the latest REAL figures? There's no need for guesswork (forecasts) What does climate change have to do with GDP? | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical." https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence" So you genuinely believe that had we remained in the EU the U.K. economy would be hugely outperforming every other EU member, rather than doing just a little better? That belief is paradoxical and totally illogical. | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence" Have you read that article and understood it? | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country." "Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing." "Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ..." "Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages." "You say no and then later admit there are barriers!" I didn't say 'no', or 'no barriers'. I said that we had lowered barriers, which we have. We've raised a small barrier with the EU, and lowered a much larger barrier with the rest of the world. Taken in the whole, we've lowered the UK's barriers to trade. "I doubt you find any Economist outside of Minford that would agree with your idea that the EU was a trade barrier but I'm sure the real world will prove one of us right in the next few years" When we were in the EU, we were not allowed to strike a trade deal with the US. That's a trade barrier. Now that we have left, we can try for such a deal - the barrier has been removed. Obviously there are a lot more hurdles to overcome, but the one big one that completely prevented us from trying has been removed. "Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU." Possibly so, but that's not relevant. You said that raising trade barriers was a bad thing, and I pointed out that, on the whole, we have done exactly the opposite. | |||
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"https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence" That article ends with "... the best estimate of the negative impact on Brexit on UK GDP to date is 2–3% of GDP". Given that the figures he is using were recently revised up by 1.8%, that means his estimate is now an impact of 0.2% - 1.2%. That figure doesn't look unattainable if we get the right trade deals in the future. | |||
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" I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? " Just wanna pick up on this point... Why wouldn't you see this as evidence? Pre-BrexitPost-Brexit our economy grew quite significantly when we factor in Covid. It obviously doesn't paint a long term picture but it gives us an insight using real data rather than guesswork. You're quite a smart guy, so I'd like to know why you would look at it differently. | |||
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"I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears?" I think you're mistaking 'evidence' and 'proof'. This doesn't prove that there won't be a 4% hit, and it doesn't prove that Brexit will be a success. It's just a clue that the 4% figure wasn't based on sound numbers, and it might not be true. The new figures show that the UK isn't doing as badly as some people thought, so it's a small clue that maybe Brexit won't be that bad after all. As you say, we'll need to wait for a good while before there is any proof one way or the other. | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence So you genuinely believe that had we remained in the EU the U.K. economy would be hugely outperforming every other EU member, rather than doing just a little better? That belief is paradoxical and totally illogical. " I’m not sure how posting a link to an article is demonstrating my belief. I’m no more an economist than anyone else in this forum (there are no economists in the fabs forums) - that’s why I read up on the subject. | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence Have you read that article and understood it?" Yes, I thought it was a well balanced piece, no? | |||
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"I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? I think you're mistaking 'evidence' and 'proof'. This doesn't prove that there won't be a 4% hit, and it doesn't prove that Brexit will be a success. It's just a clue that the 4% figure wasn't based on sound numbers, and it might not be true. The new figures show that the UK isn't doing as badly as some people thought, so it's a small clue that maybe Brexit won't be that bad after all. As you say, we'll need to wait for a good while before there is any proof one way or the other." you said it far better than I could muster this morning thanks. Note to self...you are not as young as you used to be so reduce the alcohol consumption commensurate with recovery time | |||
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" I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Just wanna pick up on this point... Why wouldn't you see this as evidence? Pre-BrexitPost-Brexit our economy grew quite significantly when we factor in Covid. It obviously doesn't paint a long term picture but it gives us an insight using real data rather than guesswork. You're quite a smart guy, so I'd like to know why you would look at it differently." Yeah that was a bit garbled. See Mr Discretion’s post which is far better | |||
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" I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Just wanna pick up on this point... Why wouldn't you see this as evidence? Pre-BrexitPost-Brexit our economy grew quite significantly when we factor in Covid. It obviously doesn't paint a long term picture but it gives us an insight using real data rather than guesswork. You're quite a smart guy, so I'd like to know why you would look at it differently. Yeah that was a bit garbled. See Mr Discretion’s post which is far better " We're all guilty of that at times | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence So you genuinely believe that had we remained in the EU the U.K. economy would be hugely outperforming every other EU member, rather than doing just a little better? That belief is paradoxical and totally illogical. I’m not sure how posting a link to an article is demonstrating my belief. I’m no more an economist than anyone else in this forum (there are no economists in the fabs forums) - that’s why I read up on the subject. " What is the context of your link? If you don't provide any context people will question your motives for posting. Seeing as you're one who likes to point out '5.5%' we can only assume you're trying to 'promote' your view by posting said link. | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence So you genuinely believe that had we remained in the EU the U.K. economy would be hugely outperforming every other EU member, rather than doing just a little better? That belief is paradoxical and totally illogical. I’m not sure how posting a link to an article is demonstrating my belief. I’m no more an economist than anyone else in this forum (there are no economists in the fabs forums) - that’s why I read up on the subject. What is the context of your link? If you don't provide any context people will question your motives for posting. Seeing as you're one who likes to point out '5.5%' we can only assume you're trying to 'promote' your view by posting said link." What is it they say about assumption? | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence So you genuinely believe that had we remained in the EU the U.K. economy would be hugely outperforming every other EU member, rather than doing just a little better? That belief is paradoxical and totally illogical. I’m not sure how posting a link to an article is demonstrating my belief. I’m no more an economist than anyone else in this forum (there are no economists in the fabs forums) - that’s why I read up on the subject. What is the context of your link? If you don't provide any context people will question your motives for posting. Seeing as you're one who likes to point out '5.5%' we can only assume you're trying to 'promote' your view by posting said link. What is it they say about assumption?" I've asked for context. You haven't given it, if you don't give it we can only assume. 'U' isn't a word | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! I was right on nazis. I proved I was You jave seen me admit when it as wrong on here. The problem for most is. They simply read headlines and not the articles nor do they visit the source data. Let alone attempt to understand. You dont need to be an expert just take time out the day to read whay you're going to quote. Sadly for the cowards. They never did that. It's why we see so m Fuck me you are a piece of work. You were totally wrong about the Nazis. Shown to be completely wrong. You had no way of backing up your argument and your only points did not remotely take into consideration the context of the times. You made a very poor and superficial argument then ran away when confronted by overwhelming evidence and considered argument. Totally laughable!" Sorry but I was right. And I proved I was right. Your attempt to say they were right wing was that...they nationalised everything | |||
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"The posters I expected not to be in here, are not here. That’s the most telling part of this, not an ounce of interest when things are going in a positive direction for the country. It's not really positive, just not as shit. I remember years back being on here and people predicting the pound Vs europe would be 1.35 in 2019 non of these are here anymore. Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country . It's extremely positive. Many took GREAT joy and glee believing the uk was 4% under where it would have been had we been I the e.u. This blows thay ship out the water. They believed we were the worst performing economy of the g7...our survey says eurgh eurgh. You think we are economically better off outside the EU?" We are. Jave you not seen the uk gdp.numbers vs e.u comparable countries? | |||
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"And here's another from a parliamentary report, "The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) agreed with the EU on Christmas Eve is far better than a ‘no deal’ scenario, but has not rectified the significant regulatory, logistical and administrative barriers to trade arising from the UK’s status as a third country. The report concludes, “While most trade is tariff-free, it is not simple.” These barriers particularly affect smaller businesses and those who are not used to filling out trading paperwork. While some are short-term teething problems, others create long-term structural barriers to trade with the EU. "" You are aware you're using reports almost 3.5 years out of date. | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking " This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it. | |||
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"Raising trade barriers will never be good for a country. Good job we didn't do that then. Instead we lowered trade barriers, which has to be a good thing. Think you are confusing trade barriers with tariff barriers ... Nope. We used to be in the EU, which meant that we couldn't make our own trade deals with outside countries. The EU was a barrier in the way of trade. Now that we have left the EU, that barrier has been removed. Yes, this means that we have to fill in lots of forms to continue trade with the EU, but that's a small barrier, whereas the impossibly high barrier with the rest of the world has now fallen. And in future, let's keep the discussion in this forum, and not in private messages. Not one of the trade deals we have signed is projected to come anywhere near replacing what we've lost with the EU. The argument that our gdp has been negatively affected by Brexit is curious. We are currently performing well compared with the EU which suggests we’re doing ok. The suggestion that the U.K. gdp would have grown even faster within the EU, leaving every other EU far behind, seems illogical. https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/impact-brexit-uk-economy-reviewing-evidence So you genuinely believe that had we remained in the EU the U.K. economy would be hugely outperforming every other EU member, rather than doing just a little better? That belief is paradoxical and totally illogical. I’m not sure how posting a link to an article is demonstrating my belief. I’m no more an economist than anyone else in this forum (there are no economists in the fabs forums) - that’s why I read up on the subject. What is the context of your link? If you don't provide any context people will question your motives for posting. Seeing as you're one who likes to point out '5.5%' we can only assume you're trying to 'promote' your view by posting said link." Good old jd portes and his dapple ganger. The uk that never existed. He was questioned on this and had no comeback. People asked him to do the same for Germany Italy and France and compare their gdp growths vs expectations at the time. He scurried away and never answered. This ks the man that lost a £1000 with that Tufton street economist on child poverty chris snowdon | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! I was right on nazis. I proved I was You jave seen me admit when it as wrong on here. The problem for most is. They simply read headlines and not the articles nor do they visit the source data. Let alone attempt to understand. You dont need to be an expert just take time out the day to read whay you're going to quote. Sadly for the cowards. They never did that. It's why we see so m Fuck me you are a piece of work. You were totally wrong about the Nazis. Shown to be completely wrong. You had no way of backing up your argument and your only points did not remotely take into consideration the context of the times. You made a very poor and superficial argument then ran away when confronted by overwhelming evidence and considered argument. Totally laughable! Sorry but I was right. And I proved I was right. Your attempt to say they were right wing was that...they nationalised eeverything " The Nazi were extreme right what on earth are you on about? Are you going by the social bit in their name? | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! I was right on nazis. I proved I was You jave seen me admit when it as wrong on here. The problem for most is. They simply read headlines and not the articles nor do they visit the source data. Let alone attempt to understand. You dont need to be an expert just take time out the day to read whay you're going to quote. Sadly for the cowards. They never did that. It's why we see so m Fuck me you are a piece of work. You were totally wrong about the Nazis. Shown to be completely wrong. You had no way of backing up your argument and your only points did not remotely take into consideration the context of the times. You made a very poor and superficial argument then ran away when confronted by overwhelming evidence and considered argument. Totally laughable! Sorry but I was right. And I proved I was right. Your attempt to say they were right wing was that...they nationalised everything " Nope. You were and are wrong. Proven wrong. All you provided was a list of economic policies, just their name, no explanation as to why you therefore thought that proved them to be socialist, devoid of any context or consideration for the contemporary context and in isolation to their social policies. I provided detailed information and quotes (including Mein Kampf). You provided nothing of any substance. Be an adult and admit on the subject of the Nazis you are out of your depth and have fallen for confirmation bias having read some widely debunked theories. Just one example where you were totally wrong: You repeatedly said the seizure of property from “rich Jews” was proof of socialist wealth redistribution policies. Except it wasn’t “rich Jews” it was ALL Jews as it was, what many historians call, Social Darwinism. The thread is there for all to read. Pesky annoyance that! Be a big boy now Morley and admit you got it wrong | |||
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"The lady doth protest too much, methinks." Yep Morley is digging away. He just needs to be an adult. He won’t of course despite always claiming he admits when he is wrong (he hardly ever does) and criticising everyone else for the same behaviour! | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it." I don’t recall “this” being explained? However, Mr Discretion worded my point far better. A further thought on this... If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state? So why are the Govt saying there isn’t enough money, need to cut services, can’t give pay rises yadda yadda if the economy is doing well? Where’s the money going? | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it. I don’t recall “this” being explained? However, Mr Discretion worded my point far better. A further thought on this... If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state? So why are the Govt saying there isn’t enough money, need to cut services, can’t give pay rises yadda yadda if the economy is doing well? Where’s the money going? " I don't know the correct answer to this but would guess that some is due to the fact that the country has been running a deficit for many many years. Obviously covid made things worse for the overall debt which impacts how much money is available. Increased GDP is welcome and helps reduce the gap between spending and income but we still spend more than what comes in, which I think is similar in many countries. I believe it and the lower than predicted borrowing will give the chancellor more money to play with. It is what he does with that money that may anger some. Personally I would be tempted to use it to reduce the debt a bit but there may be more pressing matters. It is just my interpretation so could be way off | |||
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"The lady doth protest too much, methinks." "Yep Morley is digging away. He just needs to be an adult. He won’t of course despite always claiming he admits when he is wrong (he hardly ever does) and criticising everyone else for the same behaviour!" I wasn't referring to Morley. | |||
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"If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state?" No. GDP is a measure of how much economic activity there is, i.e. how much stuff gets made and sold. It's not related to profit. If everyone is making more things, but energy costs are squeezing profit margins, then everyone makes less profit, but GDP still increases because more stuff is sold. | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it. I don’t recall “this” being explained? However, Mr Discretion worded my point far better. A further thought on this... If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state? So why are the Govt saying there isn’t enough money, need to cut services, can’t give pay rises yadda yadda if the economy is doing well? Where’s the money going? " More money is being used to pay the national debt. We are pretty level on GDP and debt at the moment, it makes sense to eat into the repayments and reduce the interest. | |||
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"The lady doth protest too much, methinks. Yep Morley is digging away. He just needs to be an adult. He won’t of course despite always claiming he admits when he is wrong (he hardly ever does) and criticising everyone else for the same behaviour! I wasn't referring to Morley." I know but then you were another person who made statement based on opinion with no supporting evidence, then demanded evidence from others (me), got the evidence then complained they were being lectured but demanded more evidence (this time asking for quotes etc from Hitler), was given quotes from Mein Kampf and...you vanished. Now you could have said: A) That is good evidence and I can see your point! B) Here is some counter evidence against your point. But like Morley you did neither. You just vanished. However, so far unlike Morley you at least have the good grace to not misrepresent what was said by others or try to claim the “win” (why it has to be a win rather than a discussion I’ll never know) which is pointless when the thread and all the posts are there for anyone to read. | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it. I don’t recall “this” being explained? However, Mr Discretion worded my point far better. A further thought on this... If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state? So why are the Govt saying there isn’t enough money, need to cut services, can’t give pay rises yadda yadda if the economy is doing well? Where’s the money going? More money is being used to pay the national debt. We are pretty level on GDP and debt at the moment, it makes sense to eat into the repayments and reduce the interest. " @NotMe and @Leroy and @MrDiscretion thanks and yes I do get that (and was being a little cheeky in my post) but in effect this means the UK is less poor rather than richer. ie better able to service our national debt. Also, this may be a dumb question, if more economic activity does not equate to higher profits and higher tax take then it isn’t really THAT good a piece of news us it? @Leroy I think you will be hard pressed to find many years where any UK Govt has run a surplus? | |||
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"Also, this may be a dumb question, if more economic activity does not equate to higher profits and higher tax take then it isn’t really THAT good a piece of news us it?" GDP is a bit like a measure of a country's pulse. It can tell us that there a lot of activity, meaning that there is optimism in business and people aren't scared to start new ventures - or it can tell us that there's little activity, well established companies are coping, but there's no innovation. An increase in GDP means that there's more activity going on, which means that the country is more capable of handling any problems that may come up, and more likely to find new avenues of profit making. So, yes a rise in GDP is good news about the economic health of the nation, which will eventually lead to more profits, which will in turn lead to higher tax receipts. | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it. I don’t recall “this” being explained? However, Mr Discretion worded my point far better. A further thought on this... If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state? So why are the Govt saying there isn’t enough money, need to cut services, can’t give pay rises yadda yadda if the economy is doing well? Where’s the money going? More money is being used to pay the national debt. We are pretty level on GDP and debt at the moment, it makes sense to eat into the repayments and reduce the interest. @NotMe and @Leroy and @MrDiscretion thanks and yes I do get that (and was being a little cheeky in my post) but in effect this means the UK is less poor rather than richer. ie better able to service our national debt. Also, this may be a dumb question, if more economic activity does not equate to higher profits and higher tax take then it isn’t really THAT good a piece of news us it? @Leroy I think you will be hard pressed to find many years where any UK Govt has run a surplus?" GDP is a snapshot of economic health. Imagine GDP is your earnings and you are paid for only the services and products you deliver. You will have good months and bad months but overall you will start to get a feel for how you are getting on and if you are doing particularly well, it could be time to start investing in nice to haves, if not it might be time to invest in opportunities. You might want a new extension to your house, you might have enough money to pay for that outright through your earnings. If you can't afford to invest in the extension and you need the extension, you can take a loan. That loan needs servicing, which means you need more services and products to be sold to pay for the loan, the more you need to borrow the more you will be paying back in interest. This is a very Janet and John way of saying, the state of the economy allows the government to understand its own finances, what it can invest in and what it needs loans for. GDP is one measure of this understanding. | |||
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"@MrDiscretion and @NotMe what great posts. I had almost given up on bring able to have any discussion on here without some people trying to indicate they are an expert on everything and patronising others in an effort to get some weird self-affirming ego boost as they constantly go for the “win”. " The reason this thread was started feeds into the growth v expectations. The UK economy grew against predictions that were being used as a stick to say Brexit was going to bring in a -% impact on growth. A lot of people throw that around without understanding the full implications, which would be borrow more money to keep the essentials going and cut back elsewhere. In that scenario, interest rates would be considerably higher as our ability to pay is not as good as other countries, who themselves need loans too. the revised figures indicate that is not the case and as can be seen, we are in a better place now as the government starts to pay off more of the national debt. | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it. I don’t recall “this” being explained? However, Mr Discretion worded my point far better. A further thought on this... If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state? So why are the Govt saying there isn’t enough money, need to cut services, can’t give pay rises yadda yadda if the economy is doing well? Where’s the money going? More money is being used to pay the national debt. We are pretty level on GDP and debt at the moment, it makes sense to eat into the repayments and reduce the interest. @NotMe and @Leroy and @MrDiscretion thanks and yes I do get that (and was being a little cheeky in my post) but in effect this means the UK is less poor rather than richer. ie better able to service our national debt. Also, this may be a dumb question, if more economic activity does not equate to higher profits and higher tax take then it isn’t really THAT good a piece of news us it? @Leroy I think you will be hard pressed to find many years where any UK Govt has run a surplus?" Others have put it far better than I can. In general I believe GDP going up is good for any country. The GDP figures were often used to claim how poorly the UK was doing not so long ago so the fact the actual results are better than the predictions in my mind is positive. If they had gone down then I suspect some ( not you) would be shouting from the rooftops about it but when they go up they question if it's relevant. | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it. I don’t recall “this” being explained? However, Mr Discretion worded my point far better. A further thought on this... If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state? So why are the Govt saying there isn’t enough money, need to cut services, can’t give pay rises yadda yadda if the economy is doing well? Where’s the money going? More money is being used to pay the national debt. We are pretty level on GDP and debt at the moment, it makes sense to eat into the repayments and reduce the interest. @NotMe and @Leroy and @MrDiscretion thanks and yes I do get that (and was being a little cheeky in my post) but in effect this means the UK is less poor rather than richer. ie better able to service our national debt. Also, this may be a dumb question, if more economic activity does not equate to higher profits and higher tax take then it isn’t really THAT good a piece of news us it? @Leroy I think you will be hard pressed to find many years where any UK Govt has run a surplus? Others have put it far better than I can. In general I believe GDP going up is good for any country. The GDP figures were often used to claim how poorly the UK was doing not so long ago so the fact the actual results are better than the predictions in my mind is positive. If they had gone down then I suspect some ( not you) would be shouting from the rooftops about it but when they go up they question if it's relevant. " It works both ways though. People choose the data to support their argument/agenda. | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok?" I genuinely don't think anyone is claiming this as evidence that 'Brexit is working', but more 'we knew it wouldn't be as bad as you said'. There has been 2 years of remainers 'rubbing salt' so I'm sure this is just the evidence that Brexiteers needed to say 'stop believing 'experts''. As an ardent remainer yourself, you've definitely been guilty of choosing when long term and short term suits. Further, I don't thunk anyone in this thread has called British workers unproductive. Seems like trying to make an argument when there isn't one. | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? I genuinely don't think anyone is claiming this as evidence that 'Brexit is working', but more 'we knew it wouldn't be as bad as you said'. There has been 2 years of remainers 'rubbing salt' so I'm sure this is just the evidence that Brexiteers needed to say 'stop believing 'experts''. As an ardent remainer yourself, you've definitely been guilty of choosing when long term and short term suits. Further, I don't thunk anyone in this thread has called British workers unproductive. Seems like trying to make an argument when there isn't one. " Too literal. I am not talking about posters in this thread or others. It has been an oft repeated narrative used by lobby groups and right wing media to push for deregulation and free market economics. Like anyone (everyone) I have at times been guilty of confirmation bias. But I have been consistent in saying I hope Brexit IS a success and remainers like me ARE proven wrong. Once we can honestly see that I would welcome the opportunity to eat humble pie! | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? I genuinely don't think anyone is claiming this as evidence that 'Brexit is working', but more 'we knew it wouldn't be as bad as you said'. There has been 2 years of remainers 'rubbing salt' so I'm sure this is just the evidence that Brexiteers needed to say 'stop believing 'experts''. As an ardent remainer yourself, you've definitely been guilty of choosing when long term and short term suits. Further, I don't thunk anyone in this thread has called British workers unproductive. Seems like trying to make an argument when there isn't one. Too literal. I am not talking about posters in this thread or others. It has been an oft repeated narrative used by lobby groups and right wing media to push for deregulation and free market economics. Like anyone (everyone) I have at times been guilty of confirmation bias. But I have been consistent in saying I hope Brexit IS a success and remainers like me ARE proven wrong. Once we can honestly see that I would welcome the opportunity to eat humble pie!" My bad, I figured when you were referring to Brexit Supporters you were talking about your peers here. Maybe that's just how I see things. | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok?" Those that argue aggressively that brexit has ruined the economy, should be ignored, those who say brexit has improved the economy should be given the same treatment. Any person with a slither of understanding, recognises that a trade divorce of this nature takes many years to reconcile before the true cost is known. It doesn't stop people banging the drum, but at least we know the noise they are making is personal emotion or simply the outcome of being poorly informed. | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? Those that argue aggressively that brexit has ruined the economy, should be ignored, those who say brexit has improved the economy should be given the same treatment. Any person with a slither of understanding, recognises that a trade divorce of this nature takes many years to reconcile before the true cost is known. It doesn't stop people banging the drum, but at least we know the noise they are making is personal emotion or simply the outcome of being poorly informed. " But what about WE TOLD YOU SO. YOU WERE WARNED? | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? I genuinely don't think anyone is claiming this as evidence that 'Brexit is working', but more 'we knew it wouldn't be as bad as you said'. There has been 2 years of remainers 'rubbing salt' so I'm sure this is just the evidence that Brexiteers needed to say 'stop believing 'experts''. As an ardent remainer yourself, you've definitely been guilty of choosing when long term and short term suits. Further, I don't thunk anyone in this thread has called British workers unproductive. Seems like trying to make an argument when there isn't one. Too literal. I am not talking about posters in this thread or others. It has been an oft repeated narrative used by lobby groups and right wing media to push for deregulation and free market economics. Like anyone (everyone) I have at times been guilty of confirmation bias. But I have been consistent in saying I hope Brexit IS a success and remainers like me ARE proven wrong. Once we can honestly see that I would welcome the opportunity to eat humble pie! My bad, I figured when you were referring to Brexit Supporters you were talking about your peers here. Maybe that's just how I see things." I have no peers Joking aside, no it was a wider comment! | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? I genuinely don't think anyone is claiming this as evidence that 'Brexit is working', but more 'we knew it wouldn't be as bad as you said'. There has been 2 years of remainers 'rubbing salt' so I'm sure this is just the evidence that Brexiteers needed to say 'stop believing 'experts''. As an ardent remainer yourself, you've definitely been guilty of choosing when long term and short term suits. Further, I don't thunk anyone in this thread has called British workers unproductive. Seems like trying to make an argument when there isn't one. Too literal. I am not talking about posters in this thread or others. It has been an oft repeated narrative used by lobby groups and right wing media to push for deregulation and free market economics. Like anyone (everyone) I have at times been guilty of confirmation bias. But I have been consistent in saying I hope Brexit IS a success and remainers like me ARE proven wrong. Once we can honestly see that I would welcome the opportunity to eat humble pie! My bad, I figured when you were referring to Brexit Supporters you were talking about your peers here. Maybe that's just how I see things. I have no peers Joking aside, no it was a wider comment!" That's fair. Can we now talk about the often repeated narrative of the UKs economy being 4-5.5% worse off due to Brexit? There is quite clearly a narrative on both sides but unfortunately not enough people are willing to see that. Quite probably because of confirmation bias as mentioned before. | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? Those that argue aggressively that brexit has ruined the economy, should be ignored, those who say brexit has improved the economy should be given the same treatment. Any person with a slither of understanding, recognises that a trade divorce of this nature takes many years to reconcile before the true cost is known. It doesn't stop people banging the drum, but at least we know the noise they are making is personal emotion or simply the outcome of being poorly informed. But what about WE TOLD YOU SO. YOU WERE WARNED?" I see that coming from both sides. Some individuals relish in it because they don’t want a discussion just want a “win” | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? I genuinely don't think anyone is claiming this as evidence that 'Brexit is working', but more 'we knew it wouldn't be as bad as you said'. There has been 2 years of remainers 'rubbing salt' so I'm sure this is just the evidence that Brexiteers needed to say 'stop believing 'experts''. As an ardent remainer yourself, you've definitely been guilty of choosing when long term and short term suits. Further, I don't thunk anyone in this thread has called British workers unproductive. Seems like trying to make an argument when there isn't one. Too literal. I am not talking about posters in this thread or others. It has been an oft repeated narrative used by lobby groups and right wing media to push for deregulation and free market economics. Like anyone (everyone) I have at times been guilty of confirmation bias. But I have been consistent in saying I hope Brexit IS a success and remainers like me ARE proven wrong. Once we can honestly see that I would welcome the opportunity to eat humble pie! My bad, I figured when you were referring to Brexit Supporters you were talking about your peers here. Maybe that's just how I see things. I have no peers Joking aside, no it was a wider comment! That's fair. Can we now talk about the often repeated narrative of the UKs economy being 4-5.5% worse off due to Brexit? There is quite clearly a narrative on both sides but unfortunately not enough people are willing to see that. Quite probably because of confirmation bias as mentioned before. " For my part it makes that 4% hit due to Brexit more questionable. It doesn’t rule it out but does show that we need an honest grown up conversation between those in the know so the rest of us can actually have a clearer understanding! | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? I genuinely don't think anyone is claiming this as evidence that 'Brexit is working', but more 'we knew it wouldn't be as bad as you said'. There has been 2 years of remainers 'rubbing salt' so I'm sure this is just the evidence that Brexiteers needed to say 'stop believing 'experts''. As an ardent remainer yourself, you've definitely been guilty of choosing when long term and short term suits. Further, I don't thunk anyone in this thread has called British workers unproductive. Seems like trying to make an argument when there isn't one. Too literal. I am not talking about posters in this thread or others. It has been an oft repeated narrative used by lobby groups and right wing media to push for deregulation and free market economics. Like anyone (everyone) I have at times been guilty of confirmation bias. But I have been consistent in saying I hope Brexit IS a success and remainers like me ARE proven wrong. Once we can honestly see that I would welcome the opportunity to eat humble pie! My bad, I figured when you were referring to Brexit Supporters you were talking about your peers here. Maybe that's just how I see things. I have no peers Joking aside, no it was a wider comment! That's fair. Can we now talk about the often repeated narrative of the UKs economy being 4-5.5% worse off due to Brexit? There is quite clearly a narrative on both sides but unfortunately not enough people are willing to see that. Quite probably because of confirmation bias as mentioned before. For my part it makes that 4% hit due to Brexit more questionable. It doesn’t rule it out but does show that we need an honest grown up conversation between those in the know so the rest of us can actually have a clearer understanding! " The 'people in the know' are all guessing (forecasts). I like real figures myself. Hence, we wait. | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? I genuinely don't think anyone is claiming this as evidence that 'Brexit is working', but more 'we knew it wouldn't be as bad as you said'. There has been 2 years of remainers 'rubbing salt' so I'm sure this is just the evidence that Brexiteers needed to say 'stop believing 'experts''. As an ardent remainer yourself, you've definitely been guilty of choosing when long term and short term suits. Further, I don't thunk anyone in this thread has called British workers unproductive. Seems like trying to make an argument when there isn't one. Too literal. I am not talking about posters in this thread or others. It has been an oft repeated narrative used by lobby groups and right wing media to push for deregulation and free market economics. Like anyone (everyone) I have at times been guilty of confirmation bias. But I have been consistent in saying I hope Brexit IS a success and remainers like me ARE proven wrong. Once we can honestly see that I would welcome the opportunity to eat humble pie! My bad, I figured when you were referring to Brexit Supporters you were talking about your peers here. Maybe that's just how I see things. I have no peers Joking aside, no it was a wider comment! That's fair. Can we now talk about the often repeated narrative of the UKs economy being 4-5.5% worse off due to Brexit? There is quite clearly a narrative on both sides but unfortunately not enough people are willing to see that. Quite probably because of confirmation bias as mentioned before. For my part it makes that 4% hit due to Brexit more questionable. It doesn’t rule it out but does show that we need an honest grown up conversation between those in the know so the rest of us can actually have a clearer understanding! The 'people in the know' are all guessing (forecasts). I like real figures myself. Hence, we wait." This is it in a nutshell | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it. I don’t recall “this” being explained? However, Mr Discretion worded my point far better. A further thought on this... If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state? So why are the Govt saying there isn’t enough money, need to cut services, can’t give pay rises yadda yadda if the economy is doing well? Where’s the money going? More money is being used to pay the national debt. We are pretty level on GDP and debt at the moment, it makes sense to eat into the repayments and reduce the interest. @NotMe and @Leroy and @MrDiscretion thanks and yes I do get that (and was being a little cheeky in my post) but in effect this means the UK is less poor rather than richer. ie better able to service our national debt. Also, this may be a dumb question, if more economic activity does not equate to higher profits and higher tax take then it isn’t really THAT good a piece of news us it? @Leroy I think you will be hard pressed to find many years where any UK Govt has run a surplus? Others have put it far better than I can. In general I believe GDP going up is good for any country. The GDP figures were often used to claim how poorly the UK was doing not so long ago so the fact the actual results are better than the predictions in my mind is positive. If they had gone down then I suspect some ( not you) would be shouting from the rooftops about it but when they go up they question if it's relevant. It works both ways though. People choose the data to support their argument/agenda." Yes we see that a lot along with choosing certain time frames that are advantageous one way or the other. We don't however often see the same thing go from 'not good' following a poor prediction to 'oh well it doesn't really matter' when the actual figures come in and it's far better. | |||
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"So the economy did better in 2021 then originally predicted. That is great news for all the reasons stated above. Right wingers and Leave voters/Brexit supporters are now claiming this as evidence that Brexit is working and that leaving the EU will not have the big detrimental impact that was predicted. However, as per MrDiscretion post further up, we do not actually know that yet. We are told Brexit is a long term project and we need to wait 10yrs or 20yrs to see the benefits, well that surely works both ways right? We don’t know what the figures for 2022 are yet. Surely we need a few/several years to identify trends? And how do we square this good GDP news for 2021 with these same right wingers stating things like... British workers/companies are unproductive, so we need less regulation and more free market. As it seems we are doing ok? I genuinely don't think anyone is claiming this as evidence that 'Brexit is working', but more 'we knew it wouldn't be as bad as you said'. There has been 2 years of remainers 'rubbing salt' so I'm sure this is just the evidence that Brexiteers needed to say 'stop believing 'experts''. As an ardent remainer yourself, you've definitely been guilty of choosing when long term and short term suits. Further, I don't thunk anyone in this thread has called British workers unproductive. Seems like trying to make an argument when there isn't one. Too literal. I am not talking about posters in this thread or others. It has been an oft repeated narrative used by lobby groups and right wing media to push for deregulation and free market economics. Like anyone (everyone) I have at times been guilty of confirmation bias. But I have been consistent in saying I hope Brexit IS a success and remainers like me ARE proven wrong. Once we can honestly see that I would welcome the opportunity to eat humble pie! My bad, I figured when you were referring to Brexit Supporters you were talking about your peers here. Maybe that's just how I see things. I have no peers Joking aside, no it was a wider comment! That's fair. Can we now talk about the often repeated narrative of the UKs economy being 4-5.5% worse off due to Brexit? There is quite clearly a narrative on both sides but unfortunately not enough people are willing to see that. Quite probably because of confirmation bias as mentioned before. For my part it makes that 4% hit due to Brexit more questionable. It doesn’t rule it out but does show that we need an honest grown up conversation between those in the know so the rest of us can actually have a clearer understanding! The 'people in the know' are all guessing (forecasts). I like real figures myself. Hence, we wait." Me too regardless of if they are good or bad it is actual results that matter. Not so long ago on here some were saying the UK took a 4% hit from year 1 after leaving the EU and it will 4% every year. I have yet to see evidence of that or anything close. | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! I was right on nazis. I proved I was You jave seen me admit when it as wrong on here. The problem for most is. They simply read headlines and not the articles nor do they visit the source data. Let alone attempt to understand. You dont need to be an expert just take time out the day to read whay you're going to quote. Sadly for the cowards. They never did that. It's why we see so m Fuck me you are a piece of work. You were totally wrong about the Nazis. Shown to be completely wrong. You had no way of backing up your argument and your only points did not remotely take into consideration the context of the times. You made a very poor and superficial argument then ran away when confronted by overwhelming evidence and considered argument. Totally laughable! Sorry but I was right. And I proved I was right. Your attempt to say they were right wing was that...they nationalised eeverything The Nazi were extreme right what on earth are you on about? Are you going by the social bit in their name? " Go smack crack elsewhere because not one of their social or economic policies was free market or libertarian. | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! I was right on nazis. I proved I was You jave seen me admit when it as wrong on here. The problem for most is. They simply read headlines and not the articles nor do they visit the source data. Let alone attempt to understand. You dont need to be an expert just take time out the day to read whay you're going to quote. Sadly for the cowards. They never did that. It's why we see so m Fuck me you are a piece of work. You were totally wrong about the Nazis. Shown to be completely wrong. You had no way of backing up your argument and your only points did not remotely take into consideration the context of the times. You made a very poor and superficial argument then ran away when confronted by overwhelming evidence and considered argument. Totally laughable! Sorry but I was right. And I proved I was right. Your attempt to say they were right wing was that...they nationalised everything Nope. You were and are wrong. Proven wrong. All you provided was a list of economic policies, just their name, no explanation as to why you therefore thought that proved them to be socialist, devoid of any context or consideration for the contemporary context and in isolation to their social policies. I provided detailed information and quotes (including Mein Kampf). You provided nothing of any substance. Be an adult and admit on the subject of the Nazis you are out of your depth and have fallen for confirmation bias having read some widely debunked theories. Just one example where you were totally wrong: You repeatedly said the seizure of property from “rich Jews” was proof of socialist wealth redistribution policies. Except it wasn’t “rich Jews” it was ALL Jews as it was, what many historians call, Social Darwinism. The thread is there for all to read. Pesky annoyance that! Be a big boy now Morley and admit you got it wrong " I asked you several times for their right wing policies. You could t answer. I ams till waiting. I provided several left wing social and economic policies. | |||
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"This is good looking back. What does it means looking forward? “LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Britain's economy surpassed its pre-COVID-19 size in the final quarter of 2021, a much earlier recovery from the pandemic than previously estimated and ahead of other big European countries, revised official data showed. The British economy was 0.6% larger in the fourth quarter of 2021 than in the final quarter of 2019, compared with an earlier estimate that it was 1.2% smaller, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said on Friday. This big upward revision brings forward the date at which Britain's economy regained its pre-COVID size by more than a year and a half, and shows at the end of 2021 it had made a faster recovery than Germany, France or Italy, and was level with Japan, although it was behind the United States and Canada.” So will this translate into a longer term trend? The 2022 figures will need to be revisited when the data is in. I am curious (not disputing) why this is evidence there will not be a longterm hit to GDP of -4% due to Brexit? When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears? Also this is indeed great news and shows the UK economy as more resilient and quicker to bounceback after Covid. But that then leaves some nagging thoughts (can’t quite put my finger on it) that the Govt has been using a false narrative to do what exactly? (Heavy night so brain not working yet). Maybe Liz Truss was right all along?*** ***I am joking This has been explained to you before. Based on this reply. You still don't comprehend it. I don’t recall “this” being explained? However, Mr Discretion worded my point far better. A further thought on this... If GDP is the prime indicator of the economic performance of the country, then surely it follows that increases in economic activity also translates into increased tax revenue for the state? So why are the Govt saying there isn’t enough money, need to cut services, can’t give pay rises yadda yadda if the economy is doing well? Where’s the money going? " Not at all. Gdp is a measure of total transactions outputs etc. It's likely that if gdp increases so does tax. But there isn't a direct correlation. | |||
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"@MrDiscretion and @NotMe what great posts. I had almost given up on bring able to have any discussion on here without some people trying to indicate they are an expert on everything and patronising others in an effort to get some weird self-affirming ego boost as they constantly go for the “win”. " Again no 1 needs to be an expert. You just need to actually read up. I said to you I had explained Ed all this before. Ans you are aware because you brought up that I'd explained it to you before. But you didn't comprehend it. Which is why yous till thought this adjustment was comparing apples and oranges. | |||
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"I’d say white supremacy and eugenics are pretty right-wing, personally. " Sorry but no Both sides of the political spectrum have believed in supremacy and eugenics Forced sterilisation etc. Sorry. Not going to cut it. | |||
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"I must congratulate _irldn though. They've come on here through the schadenfreude times and now the unicorn delivery times. Others who have been on here mocking feisty, notme and myself for the last year disappeared pronto when the farage stuff happened,along with the green energy costs and now this new revision. When I was told I was Tufton street mouth, and dilip shah and other economists were clueless and brexit had cost the uk 4% gdp. Birldn has taken their links. The others are quite frankly cowards. Hmmm not really. Happy to admit if I am wrong or as new information becomes available re-evaluate. That’s because I am a mature adult and do not think i am an expert in everything. In addition, while I voted remain and still think Brexit was a shit idea/outcome, I am always pleased to see good news. But I have consistently said that until the net benefit outweighs the net loss, I will not celebrate. Hardly think that’s me taking the “licks”! BTW still waiting for you to admit you were wrong about the Nazis! I was right on nazis. I proved I was You jave seen me admit when it as wrong on here. The problem for most is. They simply read headlines and not the articles nor do they visit the source data. Let alone attempt to understand. You dont need to be an expert just take time out the day to read whay you're going to quote. Sadly for the cowards. They never did that. It's why we see so m Fuck me you are a piece of work. You were totally wrong about the Nazis. Shown to be completely wrong. You had no way of backing up your argument and your only points did not remotely take into consideration the context of the times. You made a very poor and superficial argument then ran away when confronted by overwhelming evidence and considered argument. Totally laughable! Sorry but I was right. And I proved I was right. Your attempt to say they were right wing was that...they nationalised everything Nope. You were and are wrong. Proven wrong. All you provided was a list of economic policies, just their name, no explanation as to why you therefore thought that proved them to be socialist, devoid of any context or consideration for the contemporary context and in isolation to their social policies. I provided detailed information and quotes (including Mein Kampf). You provided nothing of any substance. Be an adult and admit on the subject of the Nazis you are out of your depth and have fallen for confirmation bias having read some widely debunked theories. Just one example where you were totally wrong: You repeatedly said the seizure of property from “rich Jews” was proof of socialist wealth redistribution policies. Except it wasn’t “rich Jews” it was ALL Jews as it was, what many historians call, Social Darwinism. The thread is there for all to read. Pesky annoyance that! Be a big boy now Morley and admit you got it wrong I asked you several times for their right wing policies. You could t answer. I ams till waiting. I provided several left wing social and economic policies. " All you did was provide a list. No context. No consideration for contemporary geo-politics. Your argument is totally based on economic policies rather than social policies or the ultimate aim of the Nazis to militarise making all other considerations (inc economy) subservient to that. Until you address points in that thread aimed at you I won’t waste my time. Here’s the STILL OPEN thread (there was no need to start another one!) https://m.fabswingers.com/forum/politics/1491798 Also stop accusing other posters of smoking crack. How disrespectful is that? Clearly anyone who disagrees with you is a drug addled addict You owe that poster an apology. Shocking rudeness Morley, really fucking poor! | |||
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"I’d say white supremacy and eugenics are pretty right-wing, personally." Remind me which side of British politics was recently censured for anti-Semitism. | |||
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"@MrDiscretion and @NotMe what great posts. I had almost given up on bring able to have any discussion on here without some people trying to indicate they are an expert on everything and patronising others in an effort to get some weird self-affirming ego boost as they constantly go for the “win”. Again no 1 needs to be an expert. You just need to actually read up. I said to you I had explained Ed all this before. Ans you are aware because you brought up that I'd explained it to you before. But you didn't comprehend it. Which is why yous till thought this adjustment was comparing apples and oranges. " And...? I sought clarification. Two polite posters responded with useful posts rather than some kind of school playground nah bah nah response. I have never claimed to be an expert on economics so clarification was helpful. I AM very knowledgeable (would never say “expert” as that is total arrogance) in three areas. One based on my formal education. Two based on over 25 year career. Otherwise my knowledge is linked to my level of interest and how widely I can be bothered to read. | |||
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""When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears?" The above was explained to you in great deal. You were explicitly told on .ultiple occasio s the revisions in 2022 pulled it down and that other countries had not done the same revision. This is a revision of that revision. You can still compare that we are better placed than those countries that never performed the revision that brought gdo down. You were told this at the time. " Maybe but you are assuming that your posts are so important and relevant that people like me will remember them or spend ages ruminating over them. Sorry to break it to you, we really don’t! Now are you going to apologise for saying another poster must be smoking crack? Fucking rude! | |||
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""When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears?" The above was explained to you in great deal. You were explicitly told on .ultiple occasio s the revisions in 2022 pulled it down and that other countries had not done the same revision. This is a revision of that revision. You can still compare that we are better placed than those countries that never performed the revision that brought gdo down. You were told this at the time. Maybe but you are assuming that your posts are so important and relevant that people like me will remember them or spend ages ruminating over them. Sorry to break it to you, we really don’t! Now are you going to apologise for saying another poster must be smoking crack? Fucking rude!" If I take my time to 3xplain something to you over several posts and you claim to comprehend. I dont expect you to then try and post something in another thread the complete opposite of what you previously claimed you comprehended. | |||
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"I’d say white supremacy and eugenics are pretty right-wing, personally. Remind me which side of British politics was recently censured for anti-Semitism." I do believe that was the labour party. But maybe corbyn and mcdonnel are now right wing Tufton street stooges? | |||
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"I’d say white supremacy and eugenics are pretty right-wing, personally. Remind me which side of British politics was recently censured for anti-Semitism." What percentage of the Labour Party would you say are anti-Semitic? I’d wager there’s a larger percentage of racists on the right than the left. But I wouldn’t attempt to shrug off any sort of racism with ‘look over there’ | |||
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""When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears?" The above was explained to you in great deal. You were explicitly told on .ultiple occasio s the revisions in 2022 pulled it down and that other countries had not done the same revision. This is a revision of that revision. You can still compare that we are better placed than those countries that never performed the revision that brought gdo down. You were told this at the time. Maybe but you are assuming that your posts are so important and relevant that people like me will remember them or spend ages ruminating over them. Sorry to break it to you, we really don’t! Now are you going to apologise for saying another poster must be smoking crack? Fucking rude! If I take my time to 3xplain something to you over several posts and you claim to comprehend. I dont expect you to then try and post something in another thread the complete opposite of what you previously claimed you comprehended." Lord High Poobar Morley has spoken. All cower and bow at his magnificence! Savour his words and record them in the Gospels for thou art all knowing. | |||
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""When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears?" The above was explained to you in great deal. You were explicitly told on .ultiple occasio s the revisions in 2022 pulled it down and that other countries had not done the same revision. This is a revision of that revision. You can still compare that we are better placed than those countries that never performed the revision that brought gdo down. You were told this at the time. Maybe but you are assuming that your posts are so important and relevant that people like me will remember them or spend ages ruminating over them. Sorry to break it to you, we really don’t! Now are you going to apologise for saying another poster must be smoking crack? Fucking rude! If I take my time to 3xplain something to you over several posts and you claim to comprehend. I dont expect you to then try and post something in another thread the complete opposite of what you previously claimed you comprehended. Lord High Poobar Morley has spoken. All cower and bow at his magnificence! Savour his words and record them in the Gospels for thou art all knowing." Maybe don't waste peoples time I future asking them to explain something you go on to ignore. | |||
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""When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears?" The above was explained to you in great deal. You were explicitly told on .ultiple occasio s the revisions in 2022 pulled it down and that other countries had not done the same revision. This is a revision of that revision. You can still compare that we are better placed than those countries that never performed the revision that brought gdo down. You were told this at the time. Maybe but you are assuming that your posts are so important and relevant that people like me will remember them or spend ages ruminating over them. Sorry to break it to you, we really don’t! Now are you going to apologise for saying another poster must be smoking crack? Fucking rude! If I take my time to 3xplain something to you over several posts and you claim to comprehend. I dont expect you to then try and post something in another thread the complete opposite of what you previously claimed you comprehended. Lord High Poobar Morley has spoken. All cower and bow at his magnificence! Savour his words and record them in the Gospels for thou art all knowing. Maybe don't waste peoples time I future asking them to explain something you go on to ignore." Or simply don’t answer again and let people who have better manners and a more adult approach respond instead! | |||
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"I’d say white supremacy and eugenics are pretty right-wing, personally." "Remind me which side of British politics was recently censured for anti-Semitism." "What percentage of the Labour Party would you say are anti-Semitic? I’d wager there’s a larger percentage of racists on the right than the left. But I wouldn’t attempt to shrug off any sort of racism with ‘look over there’ " I'm not trying to shrug it off, or deflect to the other side. I'm just pointing out that there are racists on both sides, and a belief in white supremacy can't be said to be an exclusively right wing position. | |||
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""When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears?" The above was explained to you in great deal. You were explicitly told on .ultiple occasio s the revisions in 2022 pulled it down and that other countries had not done the same revision. This is a revision of that revision. You can still compare that we are better placed than those countries that never performed the revision that brought gdo down. You were told this at the time. Maybe but you are assuming that your posts are so important and relevant that people like me will remember them or spend ages ruminating over them. Sorry to break it to you, we really don’t! Now are you going to apologise for saying another poster must be smoking crack? Fucking rude! If I take my time to 3xplain something to you over several posts and you claim to comprehend. I dont expect you to then try and post something in another thread the complete opposite of what you previously claimed you comprehended. Lord High Poobar Morley has spoken. All cower and bow at his magnificence! Savour his words and record them in the Gospels for thou art all knowing. Maybe don't waste peoples time I future asking them to explain something you go on to ignore. Or simply don’t answer again and let people who have better manners and a more adult approach respond instead!" You were given an adult approach time and again of this forum. Instead you choose to mock. I will reply when you inevitably get something drastically wrong again so people are aware. | |||
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""When asking for evidence of brexit benefits we are always told “it is a longterm project” yet we are now looking at shorterm evidence? So apples and pears? Also wasn’t there some discussion a few months back that each of the G7 countries are actually measuring GDP differently, so again hard to make direct comparisons? Apples and pears?" The above was explained to you in great deal. You were explicitly told on .ultiple occasio s the revisions in 2022 pulled it down and that other countries had not done the same revision. This is a revision of that revision. You can still compare that we are better placed than those countries that never performed the revision that brought gdo down. You were told this at the time. Maybe but you are assuming that your posts are so important and relevant that people like me will remember them or spend ages ruminating over them. Sorry to break it to you, we really don’t! Now are you going to apologise for saying another poster must be smoking crack? Fucking rude! If I take my time to 3xplain something to you over several posts and you claim to comprehend. I dont expect you to then try and post something in another thread the complete opposite of what you previously claimed you comprehended. Lord High Poobar Morley has spoken. All cower and bow at his magnificence! Savour his words and record them in the Gospels for thou art all knowing. Maybe don't waste peoples time I future asking them to explain something you go on to ignore. Or simply don’t answer again and let people who have better manners and a more adult approach respond instead! You were given an adult approach time and again of this forum. Instead you choose to mock. I will reply when you inevitably get something drastically wrong again so people are aware." Oooh that sounds ominous! The air must be thin up there Morley | |||
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