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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. " Problem is the BoE main job is to bring down inflation.. and the easiest way to do that is to put up interest rates to tighten everyone’s belts! Because “systemic” inflation is basically running at 7% you are now getting in the cycle of people rightfully wanting inflation type wage increases and then you are in a vicious circle! | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. " Nope. Absolutely not, we were told earlier that Brexit didn't help to increase wages. | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Nope. Absolutely not, we were told earlier that Brexit didn't help to increase wages." By who? It demonstrably has in some sectors but certainly not all. And the point is that one of the Leave arguments was that removing EU workers would increase salaries. The Remain argument was that this would be short lived and end up being wiped out by inflation (and a devalued £). | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Nope. Absolutely not, we were told earlier that Brexit didn't help to increase wages." only coz we went for immigration via colour blind point system 
Just remember wage inflation cause inflation unless it's a brexit win, or the triple lock. And brexit didn't cause wage inflation unless we can blame inflation on it.
Just like Schrödingers GBP.
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Nope. Absolutely not, we were told earlier that Brexit didn't help to increase wages. By who? It demonstrably has in some sectors but certainly not all. And the point is that one of the Leave arguments was that removing EU workers would increase salaries. The Remain argument was that this would be short lived and end up being wiped out by inflation (and a devalued £)." By our resident 'Soc-Dem'. | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Nope. Absolutely not, we were told earlier that Brexit didn't help to increase wages. By who? It demonstrably has in some sectors but certainly not all. And the point is that one of the Leave arguments was that removing EU workers would increase salaries. The Remain argument was that this would be short lived and end up being wiped out by inflation (and a devalued £). By our resident 'Soc-Dem'. " I said that wages had risen in some sectors, but overall, real terms wages had fallen, and Brexit was a factor - And that’s all true. Let’s not tell half a story, now. | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Nope. Absolutely not, we were told earlier that Brexit didn't help to increase wages. By who? It demonstrably has in some sectors but certainly not all. And the point is that one of the Leave arguments was that removing EU workers would increase salaries. The Remain argument was that this would be short lived and end up being wiped out by inflation (and a devalued £). By our resident 'Soc-Dem'. I said that wages had risen in some sectors, but overall, real terms wages had fallen, and Brexit was a factor - And that’s all true. Let’s not tell half a story, now. " Half a story you say?? This was your original statement until challenged. "There’s a poster here who claims that Brexit has driven up wages, due to immigration and the lack of cheap labour from the EU - it’s completely unverified and at odds with actual reported data - but accepting that whilst their personal narrative/experience may back up their point - if they are unwilling to accept the broader, reputable data, what can be done?" That's the full statement, nothing added, nor taken away. | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Nope. Absolutely not, we were told earlier that Brexit didn't help to increase wages. By who? It demonstrably has in some sectors but certainly not all. And the point is that one of the Leave arguments was that removing EU workers would increase salaries. The Remain argument was that this would be short lived and end up being wiped out by inflation (and a devalued £). By our resident 'Soc-Dem'. I said that wages had risen in some sectors, but overall, real terms wages had fallen, and Brexit was a factor - And that’s all true. Let’s not tell half a story, now. Half a story you say?? This was your original statement until challenged. "There’s a poster here who claims that Brexit has driven up wages, due to immigration and the lack of cheap labour from the EU - it’s completely unverified and at odds with actual reported data - but accepting that whilst their personal narrative/experience may back up their point - if they are unwilling to accept the broader, reputable data, what can be done?" That's the full statement, nothing added, nor taken away." Indeed it is. And it’s quite correct, thanks for reposting it  | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. " Freedom of movement? We just had the highest amount of immigration ever. So point 1...junk. 2 hundreds of thousands of workers leave. Please provide this evidence and over what time period. 3. Lack of worker...please provide your evidence for lack of workforce. The workforce on paye( has increased) vacancies decreased. These numbers are counterfactual to your point. 4/5 Increasing salaries. This is a good thing...remember we were told FoM didn't suppress wages by remain. 6. Mortgage interest rates. Cool did America brexit too . Did the e.u brexit? 7. Worker demand higher salaries when they can move to a Job without cheap labour competing. This forces firms to invest in technology. My own has invested in a software called kariba. It's replaced 3 assistant accountants who might jave come from the e.u. it does the job more accurately. No need for labour. Previously no incentive to do this. But with no labour and no unnecessary visa granted it will improve the finance productivity.  | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Nope. Absolutely not, we were told earlier that Brexit didn't help to increase wages. By who? It demonstrably has in some sectors but certainly not all. And the point is that one of the Leave arguments was that removing EU workers would increase salaries. The Remain argument was that this would be short lived and end up being wiped out by inflation (and a devalued £). By our resident 'Soc-Dem'. I said that wages had risen in some sectors, but overall, real terms wages had fallen, and Brexit was a factor - And that’s all true. Let’s not tell half a story, now. Half a story you say?? This was your original statement until challenged. "There’s a poster here who claims that Brexit has driven up wages, due to immigration and the lack of cheap labour from the EU - it’s completely unverified and at odds with actual reported data - but accepting that whilst their personal narrative/experience may back up their point - if they are unwilling to accept the broader, reputable data, what can be done?" That's the full statement, nothing added, nor taken away. Indeed it is. And it’s quite correct, thanks for reposting it "Wage increases in sectors that used a lot of EU labour are not unverified or at odds with actual data. Do you actually believe yourself? Do you want me to post what you went on to say after? | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Freedom of movement? We just had the highest amount of immigration ever. So point 1...junk. 2 hundreds of thousands of workers leave. Please provide this evidence and over what time period. 3. Lack of worker...please provide your evidence for lack of workforce. The workforce on paye( has increased) vacancies decreased. These numbers are counterfactual to your point. 4/5 Increasing salaries. This is a good thing...remember we were told FoM didn't suppress wages by remain. 6. Mortgage interest rates. Cool did America brexit too . Did the e.u brexit? 7. Worker demand higher salaries when they can move to a Job without cheap labour competing. This forces firms to invest in technology. My own has invested in a software called kariba. It's replaced 3 assistant accountants who might jave come from the e.u. it does the job more accurately. No need for labour. Previously no incentive to do this. But with no labour and no unnecessary visa granted it will improve the finance productivity. "I’ll engage with you when you go back on he other thread and clearly explain why I can’t possibly be a centrist. Tick tock! | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Freedom of movement? We just had the highest amount of immigration ever. So point 1...junk. 2 hundreds of thousands of workers leave. Please provide this evidence and over what time period. 3. Lack of worker...please provide your evidence for lack of workforce. The workforce on paye( has increased) vacancies decreased. These numbers are counterfactual to your point. 4/5 Increasing salaries. This is a good thing...remember we were told FoM didn't suppress wages by remain. 6. Mortgage interest rates. Cool did America brexit too . Did the e.u brexit? 7. Worker demand higher salaries when they can move to a Job without cheap labour competing. This forces firms to invest in technology. My own has invested in a software called kariba. It's replaced 3 assistant accountants who might jave come from the e.u. it does the job more accurately. No need for labour. Previously no incentive to do this. But with no labour and no unnecessary visa granted it will improve the finance productivity.
I’ll engage with you when you go back on he other thread and clearly explain why I can’t possibly be a centrist. Tick tock!"OK dont respond then. I gave you a response to 1 of your claims about tax as a reason A thorough debunking above. Feel free not to reply. You are a hoot though claiming to be centrist. | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Freedom of movement? We just had the highest amount of immigration ever. So point 1...junk. 2 hundreds of thousands of workers leave. Please provide this evidence and over what time period. 3. Lack of worker...please provide your evidence for lack of workforce. The workforce on paye( has increased) vacancies decreased. These numbers are counterfactual to your point. 4/5 Increasing salaries. This is a good thing...remember we were told FoM didn't suppress wages by remain. 6. Mortgage interest rates. Cool did America brexit too . Did the e.u brexit? 7. Worker demand higher salaries when they can move to a Job without cheap labour competing. This forces firms to invest in technology. My own has invested in a software called kariba. It's replaced 3 assistant accountants who might jave come from the e.u. it does the job more accurately. No need for labour. Previously no incentive to do this. But with no labour and no unnecessary visa granted it will improve the finance productivity.
I’ll engage with you when you go back on he other thread and clearly explain why I can’t possibly be a centrist. Tick tock!
OK dont respond then.
I gave you a response to 1 of your claims about tax as a reason
A thorough debunking above.
Feel free not to reply.
You are a hoot though claiming to be centrist."Pitiful. Your tax point was wrong. I am a centrist but you can’t see that as your echo chamber has pulled so far to the right. Anyway two points from above... ++++ Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-labour-market-an-early-assessment/#:~:text=By%20September%202022%2C%20there%20was,1%25%20of%20the%20labour%20force. “We estimate how many EU and non-EU workers would have been in employment if pre-pandemic migration trends had continued. We then compare those counterfactuals to the out-turns, as measured by the Annual Population Survey. By September 2022, there was a significant shortfall of around 460,000 EU-origin workers, partly but not wholly compensated for by an increase of about 130,000 non-EU workers. The net loss of workers – around 330,000 – is 1% of the labour force.“ ++++ Lack of workers https://www.statista.com/statistics/283771/monthly-job-vacancies-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/ “The number of job vacancies in the United Kingdom reached a record high of 1.3 million in the three months to May 2022” ++++ | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. " 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house. | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house." We’ll find out whether 6% is nothing or not soon enough, won’t we? | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house." What was your salary? What multiple did you need to buy that house? 3 x salary was the norm so I guess you had a deposit do salary around £18k? Things have changed including a growing disparity between salaries and property prices. 12% on a £55k mortgage is a lot less than 6% on a 255k mortgage! | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Freedom of movement? We just had the highest amount of immigration ever. So point 1...junk. 2 hundreds of thousands of workers leave. Please provide this evidence and over what time period. 3. Lack of worker...please provide your evidence for lack of workforce. The workforce on paye( has increased) vacancies decreased. These numbers are counterfactual to your point. 4/5 Increasing salaries. This is a good thing...remember we were told FoM didn't suppress wages by remain. 6. Mortgage interest rates. Cool did America brexit too . Did the e.u brexit? 7. Worker demand higher salaries when they can move to a Job without cheap labour competing. This forces firms to invest in technology. My own has invested in a software called kariba. It's replaced 3 assistant accountants who might jave come from the e.u. it does the job more accurately. No need for labour. Previously no incentive to do this. But with no labour and no unnecessary visa granted it will improve the finance productivity.
I’ll engage with you when you go back on he other thread and clearly explain why I can’t possibly be a centrist. Tick tock!
OK dont respond then.
I gave you a response to 1 of your claims about tax as a reason
A thorough debunking above.
Feel free not to reply.
You are a hoot though claiming to be centrist.
Pitiful. Your tax point was wrong. I am a centrist but you can’t see that as your echo chamber has pulled so far to the right. Anyway two points from above...
++++
Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-labour-market-an-early-assessment/#:~:text=By%20September%202022%2C%20there%20was,1%25%20of%20the%20labour%20force.
“We estimate how many EU and non-EU workers would have been in employment if pre-pandemic migration trends had continued. We then compare those counterfactuals to the out-turns, as measured by the Annual Population Survey. By September 2022, there was a significant shortfall of around 460,000 EU-origin workers, partly but not wholly compensated for by an increase of about 130,000 non-EU workers. The net loss of workers – around 330,000 – is 1% of the labour force.“
++++
Lack of workers
https://www.statista.com/statistics/283771/monthly-job-vacancies-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
“The number of job vacancies in the United Kingdom reached a record high of 1.3 million in the three months to May 2022”
++++"So if this is blamed on Brexit how did this happen in 1989 its just boom and bust again its been to good for to long and people over stretched living on credit. | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house. What was your salary? What multiple did you need to buy that house? 3 x salary was the norm so I guess you had a deposit do salary around £18k? Things have changed including a growing disparity between salaries and property prices. 12% on a £55k mortgage is a lot less than 6% on a 255k mortgage!" 100% Morgage on 60k 3 x mine and 1.5 x parter we where over stretched but told you money is safe in property lol stuck at it for 18 months then gave the keys back to Halifax I was on 16k I think she was on about 8k just could not pay it. So had to cut losses. Yes 6% on 255k is differant but how earns 85k a year to be able to get a 255k mortgage? So it is comparable and a pint was less then a pound. | |||
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"Has this increase affected you? Highest in 15yrs. Are you planning on making any changes? The Millionaire PM said "We are going to get through this" This is no We in this. " . On a simplistic basis interest rates are only returning to a long run average . I have always used 8 % as a base line so not bothered if they rise by a few more points. It only impacts those who have over extended themselves. In any event last time I checked only 40% of houses have a mortgage . A rise in interest rates should help those with no borrowings and have placed money in a deposit account or investments . | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house. What was your salary? What multiple did you need to buy that house? 3 x salary was the norm so I guess you had a deposit do salary around £18k? Things have changed including a growing disparity between salaries and property prices. 12% on a £55k mortgage is a lot less than 6% on a 255k mortgage! 100% Morgage on 60k 3 x mine and 1.5 x parter we where over stretched but told you money is safe in property lol stuck at it for 18 months then gave the keys back to Halifax I was on 16k I think she was on about 8k just could not pay it. So had to cut losses. Yes 6% on 255k is differant but how earns 85k a year to be able to get a 255k mortgage? So it is comparable and a pint was less then a pound." My figures are all just made up but the point remains. Few people now can get on the ladder at 3x salary or 2.5x joint salary. Multiples are far larger. So for a 255k mortgage you only need joint salary of around £50k. But 100% mortgage = ouch! | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Freedom of movement? We just had the highest amount of immigration ever. So point 1...junk. 2 hundreds of thousands of workers leave. Please provide this evidence and over what time period. 3. Lack of worker...please provide your evidence for lack of workforce. The workforce on paye( has increased) vacancies decreased. These numbers are counterfactual to your point. 4/5 Increasing salaries. This is a good thing...remember we were told FoM didn't suppress wages by remain. 6. Mortgage interest rates. Cool did America brexit too . Did the e.u brexit? 7. Worker demand higher salaries when they can move to a Job without cheap labour competing. This forces firms to invest in technology. My own has invested in a software called kariba. It's replaced 3 assistant accountants who might jave come from the e.u. it does the job more accurately. No need for labour. Previously no incentive to do this. But with no labour and no unnecessary visa granted it will improve the finance productivity.
I’ll engage with you when you go back on he other thread and clearly explain why I can’t possibly be a centrist. Tick tock!
OK dont respond then.
I gave you a response to 1 of your claims about tax as a reason
A thorough debunking above.
Feel free not to reply.
You are a hoot though claiming to be centrist.
Pitiful. Your tax point was wrong. I am a centrist but you can’t see that as your echo chamber has pulled so far to the right. Anyway two points from above...
++++
Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-labour-market-an-early-assessment/#:~:text=By%20September%202022%2C%20there%20was,1%25%20of%20the%20labour%20force.
“We estimate how many EU and non-EU workers would have been in employment if pre-pandemic migration trends had continued. We then compare those counterfactuals to the out-turns, as measured by the Annual Population Survey. By September 2022, there was a significant shortfall of around 460,000 EU-origin workers, partly but not wholly compensated for by an increase of about 130,000 non-EU workers. The net loss of workers – around 330,000 – is 1% of the labour force.“
++++
Lack of workers
https://www.statista.com/statistics/283771/monthly-job-vacancies-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
“The number of job vacancies in the United Kingdom reached a record high of 1.3 million in the three months to May 2022”
++++
So if this is blamed on Brexit how did this happen in 1989 its just boom and bust again its been to good for to long and people over stretched living on credit."I will quote the start of my own post... "Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor." | |||
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"Has this increase affected you? Highest in 15yrs. Are you planning on making any changes? The Millionaire PM said "We are going to get through this" This is no We in this. . On a simplistic basis interest rates are only returning to a long run average . I have always used 8 % as a base line so not bothered if they rise by a few more points. It only impacts those who have over extended themselves. In any event last time I checked only 40% of houses have a mortgage . A rise in interest rates should help those with no borrowings and have placed money in a deposit account or investments . " You mean like all the rate setters in the BoE? | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house. What was your salary? What multiple did you need to buy that house? 3 x salary was the norm so I guess you had a deposit do salary around £18k? Things have changed including a growing disparity between salaries and property prices. 12% on a £55k mortgage is a lot less than 6% on a 255k mortgage! 100% Morgage on 60k 3 x mine and 1.5 x parter we where over stretched but told you money is safe in property lol stuck at it for 18 months then gave the keys back to Halifax I was on 16k I think she was on about 8k just could not pay it. So had to cut losses. Yes 6% on 255k is differant but how earns 85k a year to be able to get a 255k mortgage? So it is comparable and a pint was less then a pound. My figures are all just made up but the point remains. Few people now can get on the ladder at 3x salary or 2.5x joint salary. Multiples are far larger. So for a 255k mortgage you only need joint salary of around £50k. But 100% mortgage = ouch!" Yep was common in the 80's 100% Morgage if you got a new build that includes appliances so was like 110% I lost the property and had to go in to a house share with mats and spet years paying back the bank for the shortfall but I was not the only one. You say 50k joint x 2.5 so 100k deposit. It's not easy never has been. Hard work means I'm almost mortgage free. | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house. What was your salary? What multiple did you need to buy that house? 3 x salary was the norm so I guess you had a deposit do salary around £18k? Things have changed including a growing disparity between salaries and property prices. 12% on a £55k mortgage is a lot less than 6% on a 255k mortgage! 100% Morgage on 60k 3 x mine and 1.5 x parter we where over stretched but told you money is safe in property lol stuck at it for 18 months then gave the keys back to Halifax I was on 16k I think she was on about 8k just could not pay it. So had to cut losses. Yes 6% on 255k is differant but how earns 85k a year to be able to get a 255k mortgage? So it is comparable and a pint was less then a pound. My figures are all just made up but the point remains. Few people now can get on the ladder at 3x salary or 2.5x joint salary. Multiples are far larger. So for a 255k mortgage you only need joint salary of around £50k. But 100% mortgage = ouch! Yep was common in the 80's 100% Morgage if you got a new build that includes appliances so was like 110% I lost the property and had to go in to a house share with mats and spet years paying back the bank for the shortfall but I was not the only one. You say 50k joint x 2.5 so 100k deposit. It's not easy never has been. Hard work means I'm almost mortgage free. " Not £50 joint x 2.5 these days. For decades now banks have been willing to lend on a much higher multiple. | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Freedom of movement? We just had the highest amount of immigration ever. So point 1...junk. 2 hundreds of thousands of workers leave. Please provide this evidence and over what time period. 3. Lack of worker...please provide your evidence for lack of workforce. The workforce on paye( has increased) vacancies decreased. These numbers are counterfactual to your point. 4/5 Increasing salaries. This is a good thing...remember we were told FoM didn't suppress wages by remain. 6. Mortgage interest rates. Cool did America brexit too . Did the e.u brexit? 7. Worker demand higher salaries when they can move to a Job without cheap labour competing. This forces firms to invest in technology. My own has invested in a software called kariba. It's replaced 3 assistant accountants who might jave come from the e.u. it does the job more accurately. No need for labour. Previously no incentive to do this. But with no labour and no unnecessary visa granted it will improve the finance productivity.
I’ll engage with you when you go back on he other thread and clearly explain why I can’t possibly be a centrist. Tick tock!
OK dont respond then.
I gave you a response to 1 of your claims about tax as a reason
A thorough debunking above.
Feel free not to reply.
You are a hoot though claiming to be centrist.
Pitiful. Your tax point was wrong. I am a centrist but you can’t see that as your echo chamber has pulled so far to the right. Anyway two points from above...
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Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-labour-market-an-early-assessment/#:~:text=By%20September%202022%2C%20there%20was,1%25%20of%20the%20labour%20force.
“We estimate how many EU and non-EU workers would have been in employment if pre-pandemic migration trends had continued. We then compare those counterfactuals to the out-turns, as measured by the Annual Population Survey. By September 2022, there was a significant shortfall of around 460,000 EU-origin workers, partly but not wholly compensated for by an increase of about 130,000 non-EU workers. The net loss of workers – around 330,000 – is 1% of the labour force.“
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Lack of workers
https://www.statista.com/statistics/283771/monthly-job-vacancies-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
“The number of job vacancies in the United Kingdom reached a record high of 1.3 million in the three months to May 2022”
++++"Your rent a centrist nothing in your economics, socials brexit or politics discussions says that about you. And no. My tax point wasn't wrong | |||
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"I am sure some of our resident economists and brexiteers will put me straight on this but... Brexit IS a major factor in all of this. It is NOT the only factor but it us A factor. 1. UK leaves EU closing down Freedom of Movement. 2. Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK creating a skills shortage. 3. Lack of workers means UK businesses have to increase salaries to attract and retain staff. 4. Increasing salaries (not all sectors mind you) cause inflationary pressure (in addition to the supply side inflation, some of which is also exacerbated by Brexit). 5. BoE blame rising salaries for inflation (seemingly ignoring supply side inflation). 6. Mortgages (and therefore rents) increase along with business costs that get passed on to consumers. 7. Workers demand higher salaries because of inflation. Freedom of movement? We just had the highest amount of immigration ever. So point 1...junk. 2 hundreds of thousands of workers leave. Please provide this evidence and over what time period. 3. Lack of worker...please provide your evidence for lack of workforce. The workforce on paye( has increased) vacancies decreased. These numbers are counterfactual to your point. 4/5 Increasing salaries. This is a good thing...remember we were told FoM didn't suppress wages by remain. 6. Mortgage interest rates. Cool did America brexit too . Did the e.u brexit? 7. Worker demand higher salaries when they can move to a Job without cheap labour competing. This forces firms to invest in technology. My own has invested in a software called kariba. It's replaced 3 assistant accountants who might jave come from the e.u. it does the job more accurately. No need for labour. Previously no incentive to do this. But with no labour and no unnecessary visa granted it will improve the finance productivity.
I’ll engage with you when you go back on he other thread and clearly explain why I can’t possibly be a centrist. Tick tock!
OK dont respond then.
I gave you a response to 1 of your claims about tax as a reason
A thorough debunking above.
Feel free not to reply.
You are a hoot though claiming to be centrist.
Pitiful. Your tax point was wrong. I am a centrist but you can’t see that as your echo chamber has pulled so far to the right. Anyway two points from above...
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Hundreds of thousands of EU workers leave the UK
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-impact-of-brexit-on-the-uk-labour-market-an-early-assessment/#:~:text=By%20September%202022%2C%20there%20was,1%25%20of%20the%20labour%20force.
“We estimate how many EU and non-EU workers would have been in employment if pre-pandemic migration trends had continued. We then compare those counterfactuals to the out-turns, as measured by the Annual Population Survey. By September 2022, there was a significant shortfall of around 460,000 EU-origin workers, partly but not wholly compensated for by an increase of about 130,000 non-EU workers. The net loss of workers – around 330,000 – is 1% of the labour force.“
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Lack of workers
https://www.statista.com/statistics/283771/monthly-job-vacancies-in-the-united-kingdom-uk/
“The number of job vacancies in the United Kingdom reached a record high of 1.3 million in the three months to May 2022”
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So if this is blamed on Brexit how did this happen in 1989 its just boom and bust again its been to good for to long and people over stretched living on credit."......and in the 70's, when inflation took off for many of the same reasons, foremost amongst them OPECs energy price hike. We must just accept inflation is cyclic. | |||
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"Has this increase affected you? Highest in 15yrs. Are you planning on making any changes? The Millionaire PM said "We are going to get through this" This is no We in this. . On a simplistic basis interest rates are only returning to a long run average . I have always used 8 % as a base line so not bothered if they rise by a few more points. It only impacts those who have over extended themselves. In any event last time I checked only 40% of houses have a mortgage . A rise in interest rates should help those with no borrowings and have placed money in a deposit account or investments . You mean like all the rate setters in the BoE?" . Last time I checked only circ 40% of houses were mortgage. The BoE do not even enter the equation. Jeremy Hunt has actually made those with savings worse off and lower the relief levels in dividend income . Just think how much better off we would be had Liz Truss remained in power. Only a fool would accept that interst rates could have remained low for ever. | |||
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" Just think how much better off we would be had Liz Truss remained in power. " Top trolling. Kudos. | |||
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"Genuine question - how do those in the ‘gig economy’ count in employment figures? There are an estimated 7million now doing this work in the U.K. - Are they ‘employed’ according to gov. data? " Gig economy workers would be classed as independent contractors - self employed I believe. | |||
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"Genuine question - how do those in the ‘gig economy’ count in employment figures? There are an estimated 7million now doing this work in the U.K. - Are they ‘employed’ according to gov. data? Gig economy workers would be classed as independent contractors - self employed I believe." | |||
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"Genuine question - how do those in the ‘gig economy’ count in employment figures? There are an estimated 7million now doing this work in the U.K. - Are they ‘employed’ according to gov. data? " As per the labour force survey. They go out ask people who are registered self.employed if they'd like to be interviewed every 3 months at home and they ask ( are you still self employed) this goes on for 5 quarters. The response are usually 80% In covid this dropped to 10% if I remember. ( yes I did discuss it with the author of the paper _irldn quoted) Jonathan portes. The lfs is an estimate of 0.014% of the gig economy at full response rate. This is why when Johnson quoted that more people were back in employment than before lockdown he was neither right nor wrong. He was tight that paye was up. But the lfs is stil suffering with its best guess respondents still down at around 40%. The only time you will EVER know about total gig economy employment is April 1st and the tax return date Ana analysing which companies still trade. | |||
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"The paper you quote above on the numbers of e.u workers is wrong I am afraid. It doesn't use actual numbers of Europeans in the uk. It uses the lfs and extrapolates whatbit wants. I want factual data. Maybe you should read your links and their sources. FYI. The lfs at the time of 2020 said its data couldn't be used because of its methodology. You see they pick 1000 or so aelf employed workers to pay 5 visits too every 3 months. Do you think the LFS could do its job during covid? Here's a hint ( they said they couldn't go knocking on doors to talk to people) I want factual data of total e.u people leVing please. Not an extrapolation of a labour force survey that couldn't take place. " ok Morley fair play. There are other sources so when I get time I will dig them out.
Also I don’t understand your earlier point on FOM (my point one which you said was junk). FOM was only possible as a member of the EU and only available to EU citizens. That has ended as I said. You are correct that net migration is high but that is not the same as FOM as we now have visa related immigration right? So what is your point? | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house." You should have been more careful when you bought your property then (I think this is how it works ) | |||
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"Has this increase affected you? Highest in 15yrs. Are you planning on making any changes? The Millionaire PM said "We are going to get through this" This is no We in this. . On a simplistic basis interest rates are only returning to a long run average . I have always used 8 % as a base line so not bothered if they rise by a few more points. It only impacts those who have over extended themselves. In any event last time I checked only 40% of houses have a mortgage . A rise in interest rates should help those with no borrowings and have placed money in a deposit account or investments . You mean like all the rate setters in the BoE?. Last time I checked only circ 40% of houses were mortgage. The BoE do not even enter the equation. Jeremy Hunt has actually made those with savings worse off and lower the relief levels in dividend income . Just think how much better off we would be had Liz Truss remained in power. Only a fool would accept that interst rates could have remained low for ever. " Liz truss was a disaster, can you explain why she is no longer the PM? | |||
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"The paper you quote above on the numbers of e.u workers is wrong I am afraid. It doesn't use actual numbers of Europeans in the uk. It uses the lfs and extrapolates whatbit wants. I want factual data. Maybe you should read your links and their sources. FYI. The lfs at the time of 2020 said its data couldn't be used because of its methodology. You see they pick 1000 or so aelf employed workers to pay 5 visits too every 3 months. Do you think the LFS could do its job during covid? Here's a hint ( they said they couldn't go knocking on doors to talk to people) I want factual data of total e.u people leVing please. Not an extrapolation of a labour force survey that couldn't take place. ok Morley fair play. There are other sources so when I get time I will dig them out.
Also I don’t understand your earlier point on FOM (my point one which you said was junk). FOM was only possible as a member of the EU and only available to EU citizens. That has ended as I said. You are correct that net migration is high but that is not the same as FOM as we now have visa related immigration right? So what is your point?"So plenty of other sites/surveys but all carry similar disclaimers to this... “The figures used in this briefing have some important limitations, particularly when looking at data for 2020 which was seriously disrupted due to the Covid-19 pandemic. An accurate picture of EU migration will not be available until ONS starts producing regularly published migration figures using new methodologies currently under development (expected in 2023); in the meantime, we rely on the more limited data currently available.” So what we have is extrapolated data (which is standard practice) and anecdotal evidence (such as business owners saying they can’t get staff and used to have plenty if EU workers). Why don’t we bookmark this and come back once ONS have published official stats? Oh and Morley, as per my point on other thread, it isn’t so much what you say or you position on things, it is the way you say it. | |||
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"Extrapolated data isn’t irrelevant, it’s literally how all polling is done. " | |||
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"Extrapolated data isn’t irrelevant, it’s literally how all polling is done. " 0.014% is not good polling and elections have taught us polling is poor. But the lfs survey itself says its data is terrible and portes acknowledges this. | |||
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"The paper you quote above on the numbers of e.u workers is wrong I am afraid. It doesn't use actual numbers of Europeans in the uk. It uses the lfs and extrapolates whatbit wants. I want factual data. Maybe you should read your links and their sources. FYI. The lfs at the time of 2020 said its data couldn't be used because of its methodology. You see they pick 1000 or so aelf employed workers to pay 5 visits too every 3 months. Do you think the LFS could do its job during covid? Here's a hint ( they said they couldn't go knocking on doors to talk to people) I want factual data of total e.u people leVing please. Not an extrapolation of a labour force survey that couldn't take place. ok Morley fair play. There are other sources so when I get time I will dig them out.
Also I don’t understand your earlier point on FOM (my point one which you said was junk). FOM was only possible as a member of the EU and only available to EU citizens. That has ended as I said. You are correct that net migration is high but that is not the same as FOM as we now have visa related immigration right? So what is your point?
So plenty of other sites/surveys but all carry similar disclaimers to this...
“The figures used in this briefing have some important limitations, particularly when looking at data for 2020 which was seriously disrupted due to the Covid-19 pandemic. An accurate picture of EU migration will not be available until ONS starts producing regularly published migration figures using new methodologies currently under development (expected in 2023); in the meantime, we rely on the more limited data currently available.”
So what we have is extrapolated data (which is standard practice) and anecdotal evidence (such as business owners saying they can’t get staff and used to have plenty if EU workers).
Why don’t we bookmark this and come back once ONS have published official stats?
Oh and Morley, as per my point on other thread, it isn’t so much what you say or you position on things, it is the way you say it."I'm not bothered about surveys. I want realisable data. | |||
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"I say it they way I say it, because it clearly comes from apoint of having read the paper, having read up on lfs and my interactions with people on here. As per my discussion eith you where you were adamant there were no legal routes for asylum seekers. " What is the legal route for someone to claim asylum in the U.K. from Afghanistan, for example? | |||
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"I say it they way I say it, because it clearly comes from apoint of having read the paper, having read up on lfs and my interactions with people on here. As per my discussion eith you where you were adamant there were no legal routes for asylum seekers. What is the legal route for someone to claim asylum in the U.K. from Afghanistan, for example?" We had this in the forum 3 times over. I'm not going over it again Birldn quoted a guardian paper quoting the UN official agreeing with me. I'm not here to correct your ignorance. This information is easily available on the itnernet Google ACRS | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house. You should have been more careful when you bought your property then (I think this is how it works ) "I was 21 and all my elders just said you need to get on the ladder soon or you won't be able to. I was young and nieve at 21 at 55and a half today I Hooe to pay my Morgage off in full. So hard work has paid off in the end.. | |||
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"I say it they way I say it, because it clearly comes from apoint of having read the paper, having read up on lfs and my interactions with people on here. As per my discussion eith you where you were adamant there were no legal routes for asylum seekers. What is the legal route for someone to claim asylum in the U.K. from Afghanistan, for example?" How the fuck is that linked to this forum on interest rates Fuck Me.. | |||
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"I'm not sure why you are all arguing, interest rates will go up until people stop spending money and inflation begins to fall. knock on effect of this is pushing up mortgage repayments, rents, food and basically everything else, it is meant to do this, this is action to create reaction. The BoE could nip it in the bud and go directly up to X% but that would cause more hardship, but finding the biting point is taking time. At the moment the interest hikes are not having the impact of slowing down spending, it has been said by people in these very forums that they are seeing no signs of a slow down in their areas, people eating out, restaurants full, holidays etc. Until spending comes down inflation will continue to rise and people will only stop spending when they start to feel a pinch." The problem is the bofe needed to enact this policy 6 months after the money printing began. It didn't. It then needed to sledgehammer it in 18 months ago. It didn't. Interest rate rises to control inflation should be 1% or more and gradually come down It instantly increases the costs of credit and borrowing and psychologically influences decisions People don't feel a 0.25% rise or 0.5% rise much like a frog in boiling water. The bofe were asleep at the wheel the rates should have been at 5% We lagged behind the usa. In July 22 they were at just below 2% by Jan 23 round 4.5 % Uk in July 1.25% Jan 23 3.5% our central bank was behind the curve. Though to be fair all central bank were as they should have begun raising rates in 2021. | |||
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"I say it they way I say it, because it clearly comes from apoint of having read the paper, having read up on lfs and my interactions with people on here. As per my discussion eith you where you were adamant there were no legal routes for asylum seekers. What is the legal route for someone to claim asylum in the U.K. from Afghanistan, for example? We had this in the forum 3 times over. I'm not going over it again Birldn quoted a guardian paper quoting the UN official agreeing with me. I'm not here to correct your ignorance. This information is easily available on the itnernet Google ACRS" I’ve just read an Amnesty paper and the gov.uk website but am none the wiser. It certainly appears that an Afghan refugee is not legally permitted to travel to the U.K, nor claim asylum until they’re in the UK. | |||
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"I say it they way I say it, because it clearly comes from apoint of having read the paper, having read up on lfs and my interactions with people on here. As per my discussion eith you where you were adamant there were no legal routes for asylum seekers. What is the legal route for someone to claim asylum in the U.K. from Afghanistan, for example? We had this in the forum 3 times over. I'm not going over it again Birldn quoted a guardian paper quoting the UN official agreeing with me. I'm not here to correct your ignorance. This information is easily available on the itnernet Google ACRS I’ve just read an Amnesty paper and the gov.uk website but am none the wiser. It certainly appears that an Afghan refugee is not legally permitted to travel to the U.K, nor claim asylum until they’re in the UK. " You need to read up more. This is not the thread for the _irldn can give you some insight. | |||
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"I say it they way I say it, because it clearly comes from apoint of having read the paper, having read up on lfs and my interactions with people on here. As per my discussion eith you where you were adamant there were no legal routes for asylum seekers. What is the legal route for someone to claim asylum in the U.K. from Afghanistan, for example? How the fuck is that linked to this forum on interest rates Fuck Me.. "Hey, I didn’t bring it up - just responding to Morley | |||
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"I'm not sure why you are all arguing, interest rates will go up until people stop spending money and inflation begins to fall. knock on effect of this is pushing up mortgage repayments, rents, food and basically everything else, it is meant to do this, this is action to create reaction. The BoE could nip it in the bud and go directly up to X% but that would cause more hardship, but finding the biting point is taking time. At the moment the interest hikes are not having the impact of slowing down spending, it has been said by people in these very forums that they are seeing no signs of a slow down in their areas, people eating out, restaurants full, holidays etc. Until spending comes down inflation will continue to rise and people will only stop spending when they start to feel a pinch. The problem is the bofe needed to enact this policy 6 months after the money printing began. It didn't. It then needed to sledgehammer it in 18 months ago. It didn't. Interest rate rises to control inflation should be 1% or more and gradually come down It instantly increases the costs of credit and borrowing and psychologically influences decisions People don't feel a 0.25% rise or 0.5% rise much like a frog in boiling water. The bofe were asleep at the wheel the rates should have been at 5% We lagged behind the usa. In July 22 they were at just below 2% by Jan 23 round 4.5 % Uk in July 1.25% Jan 23 3.5% our central bank was behind the curve. Though to be fair all central bank were as they should have begun raising rates in 2021. " I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying, my point is we are seeing rates rise but people in my opinion do not understand why they are going up or when they will stop. | |||
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"I'm not sure why you are all arguing, interest rates will go up until people stop spending money and inflation begins to fall. knock on effect of this is pushing up mortgage repayments, rents, food and basically everything else, it is meant to do this, this is action to create reaction. The BoE could nip it in the bud and go directly up to X% but that would cause more hardship, but finding the biting point is taking time. At the moment the interest hikes are not having the impact of slowing down spending, it has been said by people in these very forums that they are seeing no signs of a slow down in their areas, people eating out, restaurants full, holidays etc. Until spending comes down inflation will continue to rise and people will only stop spending when they start to feel a pinch. The problem is the bofe needed to enact this policy 6 months after the money printing began. It didn't. It then needed to sledgehammer it in 18 months ago. It didn't. Interest rate rises to control inflation should be 1% or more and gradually come down It instantly increases the costs of credit and borrowing and psychologically influences decisions People don't feel a 0.25% rise or 0.5% rise much like a frog in boiling water. The bofe were asleep at the wheel the rates should have been at 5% We lagged behind the usa. In July 22 they were at just below 2% by Jan 23 round 4.5 % Uk in July 1.25% Jan 23 3.5% our central bank was behind the curve. Though to be fair all central bank were as they should have begun raising rates in 2021. I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying, my point is we are seeing rates rise but people in my opinion do not understand why they are going up or when they will stop." There is a slight disconnect to the interest rates today vs what happened decade ago. Many mortgages( like mine) are longer term. I took out a 5 year mortgage in 2020 ( as I knew inflation was coming) it'd only those mortgages coming up for renewal now. Where people will be really facing the pinch. Especially buy to let's and rental. Those rental increases will push out the rentors we saw in the news the other day that for many rentors they bnow spend 60% of income on rent. This will only get worse but it takes time to be felt. This is why often there's an 18 month lage between rates increases and effec5. The heavier rate increase is typically felt when borrowing liquid cash from the bank. | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house. You should have been more careful when you bought your property then (I think this is how it works )
I was 21 and all my elders just said you need to get on the ladder soon or you won't be able to. I was young and nieve at 21 at 55and a half today I Hooe to pay my Morgage off in full. So hard work has paid off in the end.."Fair enough, we live and learn | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. 6% is nothing in 1989 I was paying 12% and lost 50% on the value of the property I had just purchased for 60k a 1 bed house. You should have been more careful when you bought your property then (I think this is how it works )
I was 21 and all my elders just said you need to get on the ladder soon or you won't be able to. I was young and nieve at 21 at 55and a half today I Hooe to pay my Morgage off in full. So hard work has paid off in the end.."
Great news | |||
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"I'm not sure why you are all arguing, interest rates will go up until people stop spending money and inflation begins to fall. knock on effect of this is pushing up mortgage repayments, rents, food and basically everything else, it is meant to do this, this is action to create reaction. The BoE could nip it in the bud and go directly up to X% but that would cause more hardship, but finding the biting point is taking time. At the moment the interest hikes are not having the impact of slowing down spending, it has been said by people in these very forums that they are seeing no signs of a slow down in their areas, people eating out, restaurants full, holidays etc. Until spending comes down inflation will continue to rise and people will only stop spending when they start to feel a pinch. The problem is the bofe needed to enact this policy 6 months after the money printing began. It didn't. It then needed to sledgehammer it in 18 months ago. It didn't. Interest rate rises to control inflation should be 1% or more and gradually come down It instantly increases the costs of credit and borrowing and psychologically influences decisions People don't feel a 0.25% rise or 0.5% rise much like a frog in boiling water. The bofe were asleep at the wheel the rates should have been at 5% We lagged behind the usa. In July 22 they were at just below 2% by Jan 23 round 4.5 % Uk in July 1.25% Jan 23 3.5% our central bank was behind the curve. Though to be fair all central bank were as they should have begun raising rates in 2021. I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying, my point is we are seeing rates rise but people in my opinion do not understand why they are going up or when they will stop. There is a slight disconnect to the interest rates today vs what happened decade ago. Many mortgages( like mine) are longer term. I took out a 5 year mortgage in 2020 ( as I knew inflation was coming) it'd only those mortgages coming up for renewal now. Where people will be really facing the pinch. Especially buy to let's and rental. Those rental increases will push out the rentors we saw in the news the other day that for many rentors they bnow spend 60% of income on rent. This will only get worse but it takes time to be felt. This is why often there's an 18 month lage between rates increases and effec5. The heavier rate increase is typically felt when borrowing liquid cash from the bank. " I can see that for sure, if we have vast numbers who have 18 months - 3years left on their fixed rate it is going to take a long time to feel even a ripple... As you said in an earlier post 1% is going to get us there quicker, I'm not sure 1% is still enough though and you would need balls of steel to go 1.5% and then start backing down. I'm not sure Labour or Lib Dems are showing economic understanding with their requests for mortgage help, it defeats the object of the interest rise.... But then I guess if people are not 100% sure why interests rates are rising, it is a vote grabber. | |||
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"I'm not sure why you are all arguing, interest rates will go up until people stop spending money and inflation begins to fall. knock on effect of this is pushing up mortgage repayments, rents, food and basically everything else, it is meant to do this, this is action to create reaction. The BoE could nip it in the bud and go directly up to X% but that would cause more hardship, but finding the biting point is taking time. At the moment the interest hikes are not having the impact of slowing down spending, it has been said by people in these very forums that they are seeing no signs of a slow down in their areas, people eating out, restaurants full, holidays etc. Until spending comes down inflation will continue to rise and people will only stop spending when they start to feel a pinch. The problem is the bofe needed to enact this policy 6 months after the money printing began. It didn't. It then needed to sledgehammer it in 18 months ago. It didn't. Interest rate rises to control inflation should be 1% or more and gradually come down It instantly increases the costs of credit and borrowing and psychologically influences decisions People don't feel a 0.25% rise or 0.5% rise much like a frog in boiling water. The bofe were asleep at the wheel the rates should have been at 5% We lagged behind the usa. In July 22 they were at just below 2% by Jan 23 round 4.5 % Uk in July 1.25% Jan 23 3.5% our central bank was behind the curve. Though to be fair all central bank were as they should have begun raising rates in 2021. I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying, my point is we are seeing rates rise but people in my opinion do not understand why they are going up or when they will stop. There is a slight disconnect to the interest rates today vs what happened decade ago. Many mortgages( like mine) are longer term. I took out a 5 year mortgage in 2020 ( as I knew inflation was coming) it'd only those mortgages coming up for renewal now. Where people will be really facing the pinch. Especially buy to let's and rental. Those rental increases will push out the rentors we saw in the news the other day that for many rentors they bnow spend 60% of income on rent. This will only get worse but it takes time to be felt. This is why often there's an 18 month lage between rates increases and effec5. The heavier rate increase is typically felt when borrowing liquid cash from the bank. I can see that for sure, if we have vast numbers who have 18 months - 3years left on their fixed rate it is going to take a long time to feel even a ripple... As you said in an earlier post 1% is going to get us there quicker, I'm not sure 1% is still enough though and you would need balls of steel to go 1.5% and then start backing down. I'm not sure Labour or Lib Dems are showing economic understanding with their requests for mortgage help, it defeats the object of the interest rise.... But then I guess if people are not 100% sure why interests rates are rising, it is a vote grabber. " BUT...while those of us either mortgage free or on long term fixes won’t feel the pinch directly through our home related borrowing, the change to the base rate will pass on to unsecured loans, car finance, credit cards, and also business costs that may see companies increase the price of their products passing it on to all consumers. Right? | |||
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"I'm not sure why you are all arguing, interest rates will go up until people stop spending money and inflation begins to fall. knock on effect of this is pushing up mortgage repayments, rents, food and basically everything else, it is meant to do this, this is action to create reaction. The BoE could nip it in the bud and go directly up to X% but that would cause more hardship, but finding the biting point is taking time. At the moment the interest hikes are not having the impact of slowing down spending, it has been said by people in these very forums that they are seeing no signs of a slow down in their areas, people eating out, restaurants full, holidays etc. Until spending comes down inflation will continue to rise and people will only stop spending when they start to feel a pinch. The problem is the bofe needed to enact this policy 6 months after the money printing began. It didn't. It then needed to sledgehammer it in 18 months ago. It didn't. Interest rate rises to control inflation should be 1% or more and gradually come down It instantly increases the costs of credit and borrowing and psychologically influences decisions People don't feel a 0.25% rise or 0.5% rise much like a frog in boiling water. The bofe were asleep at the wheel the rates should have been at 5% We lagged behind the usa. In July 22 they were at just below 2% by Jan 23 round 4.5 % Uk in July 1.25% Jan 23 3.5% our central bank was behind the curve. Though to be fair all central bank were as they should have begun raising rates in 2021. I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying, my point is we are seeing rates rise but people in my opinion do not understand why they are going up or when they will stop. There is a slight disconnect to the interest rates today vs what happened decade ago. Many mortgages( like mine) are longer term. I took out a 5 year mortgage in 2020 ( as I knew inflation was coming) it'd only those mortgages coming up for renewal now. Where people will be really facing the pinch. Especially buy to let's and rental. Those rental increases will push out the rentors we saw in the news the other day that for many rentors they bnow spend 60% of income on rent. This will only get worse but it takes time to be felt. This is why often there's an 18 month lage between rates increases and effec5. The heavier rate increase is typically felt when borrowing liquid cash from the bank. I can see that for sure, if we have vast numbers who have 18 months - 3years left on their fixed rate it is going to take a long time to feel even a ripple... As you said in an earlier post 1% is going to get us there quicker, I'm not sure 1% is still enough though and you would need balls of steel to go 1.5% and then start backing down. I'm not sure Labour or Lib Dems are showing economic understanding with their requests for mortgage help, it defeats the object of the interest rise.... But then I guess if people are not 100% sure why interests rates are rising, it is a vote grabber. " For me the 1% should have taken us from rates of 0.75 to 1.75( dropping the rates was You the go 2.74 Then 3.75 inside of a year from December 2020. Which by December 21. Stops people spending their money Sadly we saw record profits for bnq dogs going from £800 to £3000 for a labrador. People were liberal woth their spending of free money. And the economy paid for it. The initial rise of .15 was pathetic. Like shooting an elephant with a bb gun. This is carneys legacy sadly. | |||
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"I'm not sure why you are all arguing, interest rates will go up until people stop spending money and inflation begins to fall. knock on effect of this is pushing up mortgage repayments, rents, food and basically everything else, it is meant to do this, this is action to create reaction. The BoE could nip it in the bud and go directly up to X% but that would cause more hardship, but finding the biting point is taking time. At the moment the interest hikes are not having the impact of slowing down spending, it has been said by people in these very forums that they are seeing no signs of a slow down in their areas, people eating out, restaurants full, holidays etc. Until spending comes down inflation will continue to rise and people will only stop spending when they start to feel a pinch. The problem is the bofe needed to enact this policy 6 months after the money printing began. It didn't. It then needed to sledgehammer it in 18 months ago. It didn't. Interest rate rises to control inflation should be 1% or more and gradually come down It instantly increases the costs of credit and borrowing and psychologically influences decisions People don't feel a 0.25% rise or 0.5% rise much like a frog in boiling water. The bofe were asleep at the wheel the rates should have been at 5% We lagged behind the usa. In July 22 they were at just below 2% by Jan 23 round 4.5 % Uk in July 1.25% Jan 23 3.5% our central bank was behind the curve. Though to be fair all central bank were as they should have begun raising rates in 2021. I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying, my point is we are seeing rates rise but people in my opinion do not understand why they are going up or when they will stop. There is a slight disconnect to the interest rates today vs what happened decade ago. Many mortgages( like mine) are longer term. I took out a 5 year mortgage in 2020 ( as I knew inflation was coming) it'd only those mortgages coming up for renewal now. Where people will be really facing the pinch. Especially buy to let's and rental. Those rental increases will push out the rentors we saw in the news the other day that for many rentors they bnow spend 60% of income on rent. This will only get worse but it takes time to be felt. This is why often there's an 18 month lage between rates increases and effec5. The heavier rate increase is typically felt when borrowing liquid cash from the bank. I can see that for sure, if we have vast numbers who have 18 months - 3years left on their fixed rate it is going to take a long time to feel even a ripple... As you said in an earlier post 1% is going to get us there quicker, I'm not sure 1% is still enough though and you would need balls of steel to go 1.5% and then start backing down. I'm not sure Labour or Lib Dems are showing economic understanding with their requests for mortgage help, it defeats the object of the interest rise.... But then I guess if people are not 100% sure why interests rates are rising, it is a vote grabber. BUT...while those of us either mortgage free or on long term fixes won’t feel the pinch directly through our home related borrowing, the change to the base rate will pass on to unsecured loans, car finance, credit cards, and also business costs that may see companies increase the price of their products passing it on to all consumers. Right?" It will have impacts to all of those things and that is the preferred outcome, and creates the pinch. The costs being pushed onto consumers will dry up again the preferred outcome and when that happens we will see inflation start to drop. Well that is the idea | |||
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"I'm not sure why you are all arguing, interest rates will go up until people stop spending money and inflation begins to fall. knock on effect of this is pushing up mortgage repayments, rents, food and basically everything else, it is meant to do this, this is action to create reaction. The BoE could nip it in the bud and go directly up to X% but that would cause more hardship, but finding the biting point is taking time. At the moment the interest hikes are not having the impact of slowing down spending, it has been said by people in these very forums that they are seeing no signs of a slow down in their areas, people eating out, restaurants full, holidays etc. Until spending comes down inflation will continue to rise and people will only stop spending when they start to feel a pinch. The problem is the bofe needed to enact this policy 6 months after the money printing began. It didn't. It then needed to sledgehammer it in 18 months ago. It didn't. Interest rate rises to control inflation should be 1% or more and gradually come down It instantly increases the costs of credit and borrowing and psychologically influences decisions People don't feel a 0.25% rise or 0.5% rise much like a frog in boiling water. The bofe were asleep at the wheel the rates should have been at 5% We lagged behind the usa. In July 22 they were at just below 2% by Jan 23 round 4.5 % Uk in July 1.25% Jan 23 3.5% our central bank was behind the curve. Though to be fair all central bank were as they should have begun raising rates in 2021. I'm not disagreeing with what you are saying, my point is we are seeing rates rise but people in my opinion do not understand why they are going up or when they will stop. There is a slight disconnect to the interest rates today vs what happened decade ago. Many mortgages( like mine) are longer term. I took out a 5 year mortgage in 2020 ( as I knew inflation was coming) it'd only those mortgages coming up for renewal now. Where people will be really facing the pinch. Especially buy to let's and rental. Those rental increases will push out the rentors we saw in the news the other day that for many rentors they bnow spend 60% of income on rent. This will only get worse but it takes time to be felt. This is why often there's an 18 month lage between rates increases and effec5. The heavier rate increase is typically felt when borrowing liquid cash from the bank. I can see that for sure, if we have vast numbers who have 18 months - 3years left on their fixed rate it is going to take a long time to feel even a ripple... As you said in an earlier post 1% is going to get us there quicker, I'm not sure 1% is still enough though and you would need balls of steel to go 1.5% and then start backing down. I'm not sure Labour or Lib Dems are showing economic understanding with their requests for mortgage help, it defeats the object of the interest rise.... But then I guess if people are not 100% sure why interests rates are rising, it is a vote grabber. For me the 1% should have taken us from rates of 0.75 to 1.75( dropping the rates was You the go 2.74 Then 3.75 inside of a year from December 2020. Which by December 21. Stops people spending their money Sadly we saw record profits for bnq dogs going from £800 to £3000 for a labrador. People were liberal woth their spending of free money. And the economy paid for it. The initial rise of .15 was pathetic. Like shooting an elephant with a bb gun. This is carneys legacy sadly. " Good observation, lockdown created an injection of cash into peoples monthly incomings through decreased outgoings. Home renovations up and spending as you say on nice to haves was high. | |||
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"The paper you quote above on the numbers of e.u workers is wrong I am afraid. It doesn't use actual numbers of Europeans in the uk. It uses the lfs and extrapolates whatbit wants. I want factual data. Maybe you should read your links and their sources. FYI. The lfs at the time of 2020 said its data couldn't be used because of its methodology. You see they pick 1000 or so aelf employed workers to pay 5 visits too every 3 months. Do you think the LFS could do its job during covid? Here's a hint ( they said they couldn't go knocking on doors to talk to people) I want factual data of total e.u people leVing please. Not an extrapolation of a labour force survey that couldn't take place. ok Morley fair play. There are other sources so when I get time I will dig them out.
Also I don’t understand your earlier point on FOM (my point one which you said was junk). FOM was only possible as a member of the EU and only available to EU citizens. That has ended as I said. You are correct that net migration is high but that is not the same as FOM as we now have visa related immigration right? So what is your point?"We just had the highest amount of net immigration EVER in my lifetime so removing freedom of movement is not the problem. | |||
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"Regarding FOM, the inflation argument seems to be that bringing in cheap migrant labour will suppress prices. So has it come to this? We wilfully undercut wages for our own workers by importing cheap labour? Is that what we want? We should be asking WHY we have to do this. THAT'S what needs fixing." FOM was never the problem. Even as an EU member most of our immigration was non-EU. FOM was sold as an enormous problem, which was not borne out. | |||
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"Regarding FOM, the inflation argument seems to be that bringing in cheap migrant labour will suppress prices. So has it come to this? We wilfully undercut wages for our own workers by importing cheap labour? Is that what we want? We should be asking WHY we have to do this. THAT'S what needs fixing." Demand | |||
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"Regarding FOM, the inflation argument seems to be that bringing in cheap migrant labour will suppress prices. So has it come to this? We wilfully undercut wages for our own workers by importing cheap labour? Is that what we want? We should be asking WHY we have to do this. THAT'S what needs fixing. Demand" Well yes, but why is their demand? Why not incentivise the 'economically inactive' to re-enter the workplace? Or better still invest in technology and automation. Just shipping-in more and more people is untenable. | |||
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"Regarding FOM, the inflation argument seems to be that bringing in cheap migrant labour will suppress prices. So has it come to this? We wilfully undercut wages for our own workers by importing cheap labour? Is that what we want? We should be asking WHY we have to do this. THAT'S what needs fixing. Demand Well yes, but why is their demand? Why not incentivise the 'economically inactive' to re-enter the workplace? Or better still invest in technology and automation. Just shipping-in more and more people is untenable. " Technology and automation results in more economically inactive. Be careful what you wish for. | |||
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"Regarding FOM, the inflation argument seems to be that bringing in cheap migrant labour will suppress prices. So has it come to this? We wilfully undercut wages for our own workers by importing cheap labour? Is that what we want? We should be asking WHY we have to do this. THAT'S what needs fixing. Demand Well yes, but why is their demand? Why not incentivise the 'economically inactive' to re-enter the workplace? Or better still invest in technology and automation. Just shipping-in more and more people is untenable. " There are people who are economically inactive who don't directly cost the state anything, I'm happy with those. We definitely should be pushing some people though, I have no doubt of that. | |||
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"Regarding FOM, the inflation argument seems to be that bringing in cheap migrant labour will suppress prices. So has it come to this? We wilfully undercut wages for our own workers by importing cheap labour? Is that what we want? We should be asking WHY we have to do this. THAT'S what needs fixing. Demand Well yes, but why is their demand? Why not incentivise the 'economically inactive' to re-enter the workplace? Or better still invest in technology and automation. Just shipping-in more and more people is untenable. Technology and automation results in more economically inactive. Be careful what you wish for. " Yes, at some level. But high-pay workers design, build and test technology  In the long term, AI will make most people redundant anyway. | |||
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"Regarding FOM, the inflation argument seems to be that bringing in cheap migrant labour will suppress prices. So has it come to this? We wilfully undercut wages for our own workers by importing cheap labour? Is that what we want? We should be asking WHY we have to do this. THAT'S what needs fixing. Demand Well yes, but why is their demand? Why not incentivise the 'economically inactive' to re-enter the workplace? Or better still invest in technology and automation. Just shipping-in more and more people is untenable. " Selling the notion of coming out of early retirement to pick up a job that is either physically demanding, mentally flat for pay that would more than likely considerably less than before retirement is a big ask. The longterm unemployed could be a resource but certain sections of society would certainly be triggered at any thought of leveraging their availability to support the country. There could be an uplift in wages to attract people into roles but that compounds the issues we have with inflation. In my opinion the bubble has burst and it always does at some point, the BoE could have intervened earlier but it didn't and is now drip feeding in the fix. The pain is going to happen whether we like it or not, so I'm unsure why they are delaying the big hit and get us into recession ASAP. Sooner we are in the quicker we will be out. | |||
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"Regarding FOM, the inflation argument seems to be that bringing in cheap migrant labour will suppress prices. So has it come to this? We wilfully undercut wages for our own workers by importing cheap labour? Is that what we want? We should be asking WHY we have to do this. THAT'S what needs fixing. FOM was never the problem. Even as an EU member most of our immigration was non-EU. FOM was sold as an enormous problem, which was not borne out." . That was typically driven by students. | |||
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"Regarding FOM, the inflation argument seems to be that bringing in cheap migrant labour will suppress prices. So has it come to this? We wilfully undercut wages for our own workers by importing cheap labour? Is that what we want? We should be asking WHY we have to do this. THAT'S what needs fixing. Demand Well yes, but why is their demand? Why not incentivise the 'economically inactive' to re-enter the workplace? Or better still invest in technology and automation. Just shipping-in more and more people is untenable. Technology and automation results in more economically inactive. Be careful what you wish for. " It's called re skilling. We have a lack of plumbers/ electricians etc. If a computer can do my job so be it. There are 800k job vacancies. I can re skill. But thisnwont happen over nights there on be some sudden big bank where every company replaces 25% of its workforce with a robot. As one job is phased out through technology another shall appear. | |||
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"Can I just point something out about the record number for immigration….. The people citing this as a reason to disparage the post are being a bit disingenuous here… that number needs to be taken into “context” for 2 big reasons A) it includes international students for the first time after covid… and students who come to the uk to study are not allowed to work whilst they are here! B) it also includes the numbers of people who have come in from the Ukraine and Hong Kong for political issues…… " I couldn't give a monkeys about immigration to be honest. More the merrier, given we have an aging population. It's just a lazy argument. Re. Original point. Brexit is an indirect cause of inflation, it's certainly making things worse, but the leading cause as mentioned is gas costs due to the war, the price lag from freight rates last year feeding into the economy and the increase in wages cycle. | |||
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"Can I just point something out about the record number for immigration….. The people citing this as a reason to disparage the post are being a bit disingenuous here… that number needs to be taken into “context” for 2 big reasons A) it includes international students for the first time after covid… and students who come to the uk to study are not allowed to work whilst they are here! B) it also includes the numbers of people who have come in from the Ukraine and Hong Kong for political issues…… " 1)Students came here long before covid. It does. 2)These people from Ukraine work Hong Kong and the refugee status work here.
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"A few months ago there were some articles about Germany and worker shortages. I think it was about half of German companies reported unfilled positions that they could not find staff for." That puts paid to the silly idea that migrants are needed for the labour market, especially given how many Germany has taken over the last few years. | |||
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"A few months ago there were some articles about Germany and worker shortages. I think it was about half of German companies reported unfilled positions that they could not find staff for. That puts paid to the silly idea that migrants are needed for the labour market, especially given how many Germany has taken over the last few years." Given that Germany are changing non-EU immigration laws to fill the labour gaps, I’m not sure how your point holds up. | |||
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"A few months ago there were some articles about Germany and worker shortages. I think it was about half of German companies reported unfilled positions that they could not find staff for. That puts paid to the silly idea that migrants are needed for the labour market, especially given how many Germany has taken over the last few years. Given that Germany are changing non-EU immigration laws to fill the labour gaps, I’m not sure how your point holds up. " Missing a key word: Skilled | |||
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"A few months ago there were some articles about Germany and worker shortages. I think it was about half of German companies reported unfilled positions that they could not find staff for. That puts paid to the silly idea that migrants are needed for the labour market, especially given how many Germany has taken over the last few years. Given that Germany are changing non-EU immigration laws to fill the labour gaps, I’m not sure how your point holds up. Missing a key word: Skilled " Yes. Germany are changing their immigration laws to fill gaps in the job market by targeting certain skilled areas.Isn’t that what most posters here say we should do to target our jobs gaps? | |||
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"A few months ago there were some articles about Germany and worker shortages. I think it was about half of German companies reported unfilled positions that they could not find staff for. That puts paid to the silly idea that migrants are needed for the labour market, especially given how many Germany has taken over the last few years. Given that Germany are changing non-EU immigration laws to fill the labour gaps, I’m not sure how your point holds up. Missing a key word: Skilled Yes. Germany are changing their immigration laws to fill gaps in the job market by targeting certain skilled areas.Isn’t that what most posters here say we should do to target our jobs gaps? " Yes it is but what tends to happen is a mixing of immigration, economic migrants, and asylum seekers as if one group. That makes the water very muddy and were most of the arguments stem from, being clear on the detail can help prevent needless bickering. | |||
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"A few months ago there were some articles about Germany and worker shortages. I think it was about half of German companies reported unfilled positions that they could not find staff for. That puts paid to the silly idea that migrants are needed for the labour market, especially given how many Germany has taken over the last few years. Given that Germany are changing non-EU immigration laws to fill the labour gaps, I’m not sure how your point holds up. Missing a key word: Skilled Yes. Germany are changing their immigration laws to fill gaps in the job market by targeting certain skilled areas.Isn’t that what most posters here say we should do to target our jobs gaps? Yes it is but what tends to happen is a mixing of immigration, economic migrants, and asylum seekers as if one group. That makes the water very muddy and were most of the arguments stem from, being clear on the detail can help prevent needless bickering." So we agree that the public need to be better educated on the differing ‘types’ of migration, then. | |||
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"A few months ago there were some articles about Germany and worker shortages. I think it was about half of German companies reported unfilled positions that they could not find staff for. That puts paid to the silly idea that migrants are needed for the labour market, especially given how many Germany has taken over the last few years. Given that Germany are changing non-EU immigration laws to fill the labour gaps, I’m not sure how your point holds up. Missing a key word: Skilled Yes. Germany are changing their immigration laws to fill gaps in the job market by targeting certain skilled areas.Isn’t that what most posters here say we should do to target our jobs gaps? Yes it is but what tends to happen is a mixing of immigration, economic migrants, and asylum seekers as if one group. That makes the water very muddy and were most of the arguments stem from, being clear on the detail can help prevent needless bickering. So we agree that the public need to be better educated on the differing ‘types’ of migration, then." Yes I do and I also think we should be better on here when speaking about immigration, who exactly are people referring too. In this example you left out the word skilled, that invokes images of any one looking for a job in Germany, add the word skilled and it becomes meaningful, to fill positions that require skills not in abundance. | |||
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"Can I just point something out about the record number for immigration….. The people citing this as a reason to disparage the post are being a bit disingenuous here… that number needs to be taken into “context” for 2 big reasons A) it includes international students for the first time after covid… and students who come to the uk to study are not allowed to work whilst they are here! B) it also includes the numbers of people who have come in from the Ukraine and Hong Kong for political issues…… 1)Students came here long before covid. It does. 2)These people from Ukraine work Hong Kong and the refugee status work here.
"Actually…. The reason why I mentioned international students is the international students from the EU we’re allowed to work here whilst studying in the past under FOM, those people are now not allowed to work here because of the brexit rules… Stop basically being a prize plum!!! | |||
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"A few months ago there were some articles about Germany and worker shortages. I think it was about half of German companies reported unfilled positions that they could not find staff for. That puts paid to the silly idea that migrants are needed for the labour market, especially given how many Germany has taken over the last few years. Given that Germany are changing non-EU immigration laws to fill the labour gaps, I’m not sure how your point holds up. Missing a key word: Skilled Yes. Germany are changing their immigration laws to fill gaps in the job market by targeting certain skilled areas.Isn’t that what most posters here say we should do to target our jobs gaps? Yes it is but what tends to happen is a mixing of immigration, economic migrants, and asylum seekers as if one group. That makes the water very muddy and were most of the arguments stem from, being clear on the detail can help prevent needless bickering. So we agree that the public need to be better educated on the differing ‘types’ of migration, then. Yes I do and I also think we should be better on here when speaking about immigration, who exactly are people referring too. In this example you left out the word skilled, that invokes images of any one looking for a job in Germany, add the word skilled and it becomes meaningful, to fill positions that require skills not in abundance. " totally agree. We need to stop conflating different groups and spell out who we are talking about. | |||
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"Has this increase affected you? Highest in 15yrs. Are you planning on making any changes? The Millionaire PM said "We are going to get through this" This is no We in this. " Were savers soall good | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. Problem is the BoE main job is to bring down inflation.. and the easiest way to do that is to put up interest rates to tighten everyone’s belts! Because “systemic” inflation is basically running at 7% you are now getting in the cycle of people rightfully wanting inflation type wage increases and then you are in a vicious circle! " I am not sure that I agree with this. Putting up interest rates to curb inflation is a blunt instrument that worked well in a society that transacted mainly in cash. It was used extensively and successfully in the post-war decades when inflation was consumer led. Today’s inflation is not consumer led and putting up interest rates is fuelling rather than curbing inflation. The BoE Execs are paid handsomely to be critical thinkers and should not be relying on an archaic system of controlling inflation that is not suited to the type of inflation that we are now experiencing. | |||
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"The forecast is it will go up 6% next year maybe more over the next few years and stay there. Problem is the BoE main job is to bring down inflation.. and the easiest way to do that is to put up interest rates to tighten everyone’s belts! Because “systemic” inflation is basically running at 7% you are now getting in the cycle of people rightfully wanting inflation type wage increases and then you are in a vicious circle! I am not sure that I agree with this. Putting up interest rates to curb inflation is a blunt instrument that worked well in a society that transacted mainly in cash. It was used extensively and successfully in the post-war decades when inflation was consumer led. Today’s inflation is not consumer led and putting up interest rates is fuelling rather than curbing inflation. The BoE Execs are paid handsomely to be critical thinkers and should not be relying on an archaic system of controlling inflation that is not suited to the type of inflation that we are now experiencing. " I agree with much of this. There are - basically - two forms of inflation, "cost-push" and "wage-pull". Britain's current inflation is the externally driven cost-push type which as you say isn't consumer-led. We have a monetary policy committee which is wedded to the idea that suppressing demand will diminish inflation which isn't caused by excess demand or a wage/price spiral. When the principal problems with the British economy are sclerotic growth and inequality, this is deeply concerning. | |||
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"I understand the arguments against putting up interest rates to curb inflation but is there a viable alternative and if so why are they not using an alternative. The interest rate rises do seem popular with central banks all over the place. It would be nice if there was another less painful way" There are other ways. Price controls being one( though companies tend to avoid these types of countries) Government debt. France avoided high energy costs because the French government subsidised the cost of energy. But that means their children's children will be paying off the heating debts of 2022 much like my mother and grandparents paid off the sl@ve debts from 200 years previously QT. Though again this usually means the economy grows slower. One of the main problems of gdp calculation is that. If you increase money supply. You automatically boost gdp. Whichbis calculated as total transactions and their value with the deflator( taking out inflation) If you create and extra £400bn of cash. That increases spending and thus increases gdp. But often it's not until 18 months down the line you see the inflation. Qt the opposite of this mean you are taking the cash you created out kf the economy by ( for lack of a better term) buying it back. And so you only have 300bn extra tk go round for all the transactions | |||
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"I understand the arguments against putting up interest rates to curb inflation but is there a viable alternative and if so why are they not using an alternative. The interest rate rises do seem popular with central banks all over the place. It would be nice if there was another less painful way" I think the scope of your question is too narrow. Although, given our current circumstances, I recognise the need to focus on inflation, there are problems underlying the economy which require resolution. There's too much short-termism when it comes to dealing with problems that affect the British economy rather than engaging in imaginative and long-term restructuring. This would enable us to better able to deal with upcoming economic crises. In terms of alternatives, there are economists like Torsten Bell and Danny Blanchflower (who used to reside on the central bank's monetary policy committee) who have presented some interesting approaches. | |||
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"I understand the arguments against putting up interest rates to curb inflation but is there a viable alternative and if so why are they not using an alternative. The interest rate rises do seem popular with central banks all over the place. It would be nice if there was another less painful way I think the scope of your question is too narrow. Although, given our current circumstances, I recognise the need to focus on inflation, there are problems underlying the economy which require resolution. There's too much short-termism when it comes to dealing with problems that affect the British economy rather than engaging in imaginative and long-term restructuring. This would enable us to better able to deal with upcoming economic crises. In terms of alternatives, there are economists like Torsten Bell and Danny Blanchflower (who used to reside on the central bank's monetary policy committee) who have presented some interesting approaches. " *This would enable us to better able to deal with upcoming economic crises like increasing inflation | |||
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"I understand the arguments against putting up interest rates to curb inflation but is there a viable alternative and if so why are they not using an alternative. The interest rate rises do seem popular with central banks all over the place. It would be nice if there was another less painful way" Central banks only have interest rates to play with to tackle inflation. That's it. | |||
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"Has this increase affected you? Highest in 15yrs. Are you planning on making any changes? The Millionaire PM said "We are going to get through this" This is no We in this. Were savers soall good" Not when inflation is higher than your savings rate and the stock market is flat lining. | |||
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"I understand the arguments against putting up interest rates to curb inflation but is there a viable alternative and if so why are they not using an alternative. The interest rate rises do seem popular with central banks all over the place. It would be nice if there was another less painful way Central banks only have interest rates to play with to tackle inflation. That's it." They also have quantitative easing and quantitative tightening. | |||
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"Has this increase affected you? Highest in 15yrs. Are you planning on making any changes? The Millionaire PM said "We are going to get through this" This is no We in this. " Highest in 15 years maybe but the people affected 15+ years ago dealt with it | |||
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