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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

"

The IMF are better qualified and more reliable than you are

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

Seemingly not.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Seemingly not."

What are your qualifications?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Seemingly not.

What are your qualifications? "

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Hopefully this puts and end to dolts believing forecasts.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Seemingly not.

What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Hopefully this puts and end to dolts believing forecasts."

You have no qualifications?? I will stick to believing the IMF over some bloke on here

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Seemingly not.

What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Hopefully this puts and end to dolts believing forecasts.

You have no qualifications?? I will stick to believing the IMF over some bloke on here "

This ‘I know better’ attitude is one of the key political changes in the past 20 years. Social media fuels it as well. ‘We’ve had enough of experts’ and actual analysis being replaced by google warriors.

There’s no going back now.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *rDiscretionXXXMan
over a year ago

Gilfach


"What are your qualifications?"


"Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them."

Do you have a proven track record of doing this?

That would count as a qualification in my view.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Seemingly not.

What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Hopefully this puts and end to dolts believing forecasts.

You have no qualifications?? I will stick to believing the IMF over some bloke on here

This ‘I know better’ attitude is one of the key political changes in the past 20 years. Social media fuels it as well. ‘We’ve had enough of experts’ and actual analysis being replaced by google warriors.

There’s no going back now."

Exactly,

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Do you have a proven track record of doing this?

That would count as a qualification in my view."

I'm not sure on Morleys track record at predicting 'growth' but tbf to him he has a decent track record at telling us the IMF are fucking useless

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Do you have a proven track record of doing this?

That would count as a qualification in my view.

I'm not sure on Morleys track record at predicting 'growth' but tbf to him he has a decent track record at telling us the IMF are fucking useless "

This is true, with bells on.

He also has a proven track record of saying that Professor Gudgin and Briefings for Britain are the source of all economic truth...

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

"

You have warned about all economic forecasts unless they come from Briefings for Britain who are, apparently, infallible.

Papist economics

An economic model means that you put some information in and some information comes out. If the information going in changes, then so does that coming out.

It's "dynamic". I know how much you like that word.

All economic modelling is far worse at predicting downturns than upturns in the economy. That is the statistical reality.

Retrospective analyses are remarkably easy to make.

You can tell us what you see in your rear view mirror next to e too,but in the meantime Governments and companies have to make plans for the future and have to use some information which is statistically understandable...

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *eroy1000Man
over a year ago

milton keynes


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

"

I think it was either the ONS or BOE that has also upgraded the outlook for the economy in a similar way. Their initial forecast was the UK would have the worst recession for ages about 6 months ago. Now it's not forecasting a recession at all. Did the IMF say what's happened in the last 2 months that's changed their outlook so much?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *lfasoCouple
over a year ago

South East

Six weeks ago _orleyman predicted that the U.K. would avoid recession this year and gdp would grow slightly. The IMF now concur.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Six weeks ago _orleyman predicted that the U.K. would avoid recession this year and gdp would grow slightly. The IMF now concur. "

So now he believes the IMFS forecast?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *lfasoCouple
over a year ago

South East

No…..The IMF now believes _orleyman’s forecast.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"No…..The IMF now believes _orleyman’s forecast. "

But he thinks the IMF are shit, so why are they going to be correct this time ?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *eroy1000Man
over a year ago

milton keynes


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

"

According to the BBC, the IMF have said that if the UK sticks to its plan then long term growth prospects will be stronger than Germany, France and Italy. I don't understand how that's possible given they are talking long term, the countries being compared to and what we are constantly told about the UK. Hopefully this is accurate but not sure on past performance

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *lfasoCouple
over a year ago

South East


"No…..The IMF now believes _orleyman’s forecast.

But he thinks the IMF are shit, so why are they going to be correct this time ? "

They will be more accurate this time because they have corrected their forecast to agree with his.

Morleyman has been consistent in his opinion, it is the IMF who have recognised their inaccuracy and have now aligned more closely with a realistic position.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"Six weeks ago _orleyman predicted that the U.K. would avoid recession this year and gdp would grow slightly. The IMF now concur. "

Lots of organisations thought that the UK might narrowly miss recession.

All economic predictions are within about +-0.3% so when you are bouncing around zero growth that is exactly the difference between recession and no recession.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

According to the BBC, the IMF have said that if the UK sticks to its plan then long term growth prospects will be stronger than Germany, France and Italy. I don't understand how that's possible given they are talking long term, the countries being compared to and what we are constantly told about the UK. Hopefully this is accurate but not sure on past performance"

That can’t be right then. Morley can tell us what the actual longterm forecast will be.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"No…..The IMF now believes _orleyman’s forecast.

But he thinks the IMF are shit, so why are they going to be correct this time ?

They will be more accurate this time because they have corrected their forecast to agree with his.

Morleyman has been consistent in his opinion, it is the IMF who have recognised their inaccuracy and have now aligned more closely with a realistic position. "

He made one prediction 6 weeks ago, fair play , it might be correct , I predicted Man City would win the league 6 weeks ago

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

I think it was either the ONS or BOE that has also upgraded the outlook for the economy in a similar way. Their initial forecast was the UK would have the worst recession for ages about 6 months ago. Now it's not forecasting a recession at all. Did the IMF say what's happened in the last 2 months that's changed their outlook so much?"

The IMF and OECD do not update their models as frequently as national organisations.

They use older data because they are trying to publish global figures at a similar time, so there is a lag.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"No…..The IMF now believes _orleyman’s forecast.

But he thinks the IMF are shit, so why are they going to be correct this time ?

They will be more accurate this time because they have corrected their forecast to agree with his.

Morleyman has been consistent in his opinion, it is the IMF who have recognised their inaccuracy and have now aligned more closely with a realistic position. "

Just for clarity, I don't think that the IMF heard that a poster on this site made a prediction and modified their data to fit it

Perhaps he does have his own economic model that he publishes?

As I said, the prediction changes when you use the latest data. It's fairly straightforward.

Same formula, different numbers go in, so different numbers come out.

In general the data from most countries run correctly relative to each other so good for global predictions and comparisons.

You use the data for what it's good for.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth

I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *otMe66Man
over a year ago

Terra Firma


"No…..The IMF now believes _orleyman’s forecast.

But he thinks the IMF are shit, so why are they going to be correct this time ?

They will be more accurate this time because they have corrected their forecast to agree with his.

Morleyman has been consistent in his opinion, it is the IMF who have recognised their inaccuracy and have now aligned more closely with a realistic position.

He made one prediction 6 weeks ago, fair play , it might be correct , I predicted Man City would win the league 6 weeks ago "

Isn’t that his point in a nutshell?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

"

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

The FT's view in January. More than 6 weeks ago:

"

Please use the sharing tools found via the share button at the top or side of articles. Copying articles to share with others is a breach of FT.com T&Cs and Copyright Policy. Email licensing@ft.com to buy additional rights. Subscribers may share up to 10 or 20 articles per month using the gift article service. More information can be found at https://www.ft.com/tour.

https://www.ft.com/content/7a65901e-1eaa-424b-a96f-ec847cae503d

The fund’s forecasts will never be entirely correct about the global economy or any one country. They are best thought of as a continuous process of updating expectations in line with the most recent economic developments."

"The UK forecast is not far out of line with other recent forecasts from the OECD and the private sector. But some economists queried the fund’s combination of optimism on the world and pessimism on the UK."

https://www.ft.com/content/7a65901e-1eaa-424b-a96f-ec847cae503d

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I forecast that this government is toast in the next GE.

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By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete."

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *otMe66Man
over a year ago

Terra Firma


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right."

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago

Grantham

Every business that I deal with, is very busy.Most are looking to recruit

Some of my clients have record order books.

The economists can predict what they like. I prefer to take note of what's happening on the ground.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either."

Of course they will, I accept that. The wriggling once proven is astounding though

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *eroy1000Man
over a year ago

milton keynes


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

According to the BBC, the IMF have said that if the UK sticks to its plan then long term growth prospects will be stronger than Germany, France and Italy. I don't understand how that's possible given they are talking long term, the countries being compared to and what we are constantly told about the UK. Hopefully this is accurate but not sure on past performance

That can’t be right then. Morley can tell us what the actual longterm forecast will be."

That's the concern, that it is another prediction that's not reality. Credit where it's due, Morley called this right when some were pointing to the last prediction as proof of something. If the IMF have it right that the UK growth prospects are stronger than Germany, France and Italy, would you say that's good or bad news. I stress the words ' If they have it right'

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

According to the BBC, the IMF have said that if the UK sticks to its plan then long term growth prospects will be stronger than Germany, France and Italy. I don't understand how that's possible given they are talking long term, the countries being compared to and what we are constantly told about the UK. Hopefully this is accurate but not sure on past performance

That can’t be right then. Morley can tell us what the actual longterm forecast will be.

That's the concern, that it is another prediction that's not reality. Credit where it's due, Morley called this right when some were pointing to the last prediction as proof of something. If the IMF have it right that the UK growth prospects are stronger than Germany, France and Italy, would you say that's good or bad news. I stress the words ' If they have it right'"

Apparently they must be right (as long as you ignore when they're wrong) because according to common type on here "I'll believe the experts over some randomer on a swinging website"

I think that's what they usually say.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton

While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right."

I haven't mocked him for doubting the IMF data. I have moved him for doubting all economic data about the UK from every organisation except for retrospective analyses from Professor Gudgin and Briefings for Britain.

He has claimed that guessing is better, unless the data aligns with his views. Even the Government's own data on trade deals.

Positive IMF data is a good thing, isn't it? If the data changes then so must the predictions.

As I said a prediction either side of zero growth is statistically highly likely to be wrong. I've provided the links to that here and before.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either."

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"Every business that I deal with, is very busy.Most are looking to recruit

Some of my clients have record order books.

The economists can predict what they like. I prefer to take note of what's happening on the ground."

We have a labour shortage in the UK regardless of recession.

I think that the need for recruitment is good but apparently that's one of the drivers of inflation.

Are you having to offer higher wages?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *otMe66Man
over a year ago

Terra Firma


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great..."

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

According to the BBC, the IMF have said that if the UK sticks to its plan then long term growth prospects will be stronger than Germany, France and Italy. I don't understand how that's possible given they are talking long term, the countries being compared to and what we are constantly told about the UK. Hopefully this is accurate but not sure on past performance

That can’t be right then. Morley can tell us what the actual longterm forecast will be.

That's the concern, that it is another prediction that's not reality. Credit where it's due, Morley called this right when some were pointing to the last prediction as proof of something. If the IMF have it right that the UK growth prospects are stronger than Germany, France and Italy, would you say that's good or bad news. I stress the words ' If they have it right'"

It is good news if the growth proves be better than France or Germany. Unfortunately it starts from further back. We are catching up, so something must be going right for us and/or wrong for them. The consensus seems to be right for us relative to Truss.

The IMF data is no more right or wrong than other organisations. It's just a very hard thing to do. They are all, always wrong.

It's particularly hard to predict a recession.

"The fund’s forecasts will never be entirely correct about the global economy or any one country. They are best thought of as a continuous process of updating expectations in line with the most recent economic developments."

"The UK forecast is not far out of line with other recent forecasts from the OECD and the private sector. But some economists queried the fund’s combination of optimism on the world and pessimism on the UK."

https://www.ft.com/content/7a65901e-1eaa-424b-a96f-ec847cae503d

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without."

How does a Government or company make forward spending and investment decisions?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *otMe66Man
over a year ago

Terra Firma


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without.

How does a Government or company make forward spending and investment decisions?"

From their own experiences and people who are at the coal face who work for them, maybe? Talking to other businesses, consumers etc, the usual stuff

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without.

How does a Government or company make forward spending and investment decisions?

From their own experiences and people who are at the coal face who work for them, maybe? Talking to other businesses, consumers etc, the usual stuff "

... that's making a prediction that is as frequently wrong or right.

An economic forecast is just more data and more consistently applied.

It's also usual stuff

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without.

How does a Government or company make forward spending and investment decisions?

From their own experiences and people who are at the coal face who work for them, maybe? Talking to other businesses, consumers etc, the usual stuff "

Scenario planning to inform strategy. If X happens we pivot to Y but if A happens we pivot to B plus some wriggle room.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *otMe66Man
over a year ago

Terra Firma


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without.

How does a Government or company make forward spending and investment decisions?

From their own experiences and people who are at the coal face who work for them, maybe? Talking to other businesses, consumers etc, the usual stuff

... that's making a prediction that is as frequently wrong or right.

An economic forecast is just more data and more consistently applied.

It's also usual stuff "

Businesses get it right far more than they get it wrong from their own internal business plans. They work hard to understand the consumer, that is what drives their decisions. Take away the IMF and they will still have their finger on the pulse of their consumers.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *otMe66Man
over a year ago

Terra Firma


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without.

How does a Government or company make forward spending and investment decisions?

From their own experiences and people who are at the coal face who work for them, maybe? Talking to other businesses, consumers etc, the usual stuff

Scenario planning to inform strategy. If X happens we pivot to Y but if A happens we pivot to B plus some wriggle room."

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *ercuryMan
over a year ago

Grantham


"Every business that I deal with, is very busy.Most are looking to recruit

Some of my clients have record order books.

The economists can predict what they like. I prefer to take note of what's happening on the ground.

We have a labour shortage in the UK regardless of recession.

I think that the need for recruitment is good but apparently that's one of the drivers of inflation.

Are you having to offer higher wages?"

Many firms are, just to retain staff.

The skilled labour shortage needs to be addressed. Older workers, with the necessary skills, are retiring early. Younger workers would rather follow the mantras of social influencers.

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without.

How does a Government or company make forward spending and investment decisions?

From their own experiences and people who are at the coal face who work for them, maybe? Talking to other businesses, consumers etc, the usual stuff

... that's making a prediction that is as frequently wrong or right.

An economic forecast is just more data and more consistently applied.

It's also usual stuff

Businesses get it right far more than they get it wrong from their own internal business plans. They work hard to understand the consumer, that is what drives their decisions. Take away the IMF and they will still have their finger on the pulse of their consumers.

"

You don't think that they don't use economic data to make a multimillion or multibillion pound investment?

Customers change their minds and short notice all the time.

Economic predictions from lots of organisations exist and are used and are found useful by many companies large and small.

I realise that you are giving your opinion and it has worked successfully for you. Are your customers' sentiments not influenced in part by economic data and predictions?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *otMe66Man
over a year ago

Terra Firma


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without.

How does a Government or company make forward spending and investment decisions?

From their own experiences and people who are at the coal face who work for them, maybe? Talking to other businesses, consumers etc, the usual stuff

... that's making a prediction that is as frequently wrong or right.

An economic forecast is just more data and more consistently applied.

It's also usual stuff

Businesses get it right far more than they get it wrong from their own internal business plans. They work hard to understand the consumer, that is what drives their decisions. Take away the IMF and they will still have their finger on the pulse of their consumers.

You don't think that they don't use economic data to make a multimillion or multibillion pound investment?

Customers change their minds and short notice all the time.

Economic predictions from lots of organisations exist and are used and are found useful by many companies large and small.

I realise that you are giving your opinion and it has worked successfully for you. Are your customers' sentiments not influenced in part by economic data and predictions?"

Not really, they spend millions on understanding the ROI. The IMF could predict the end of the £, however if a client sets up a sub project to workout if project or strategy X is going to be a success and that sub project steers green, it is all in regardless.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"I've pulled this from an article in the Telegraph 4 weeks ago.

"The Washington-based organisation has made 28 predictions about Britain’s economy between 2016 and 2022 in its World Economic Outlooks.

Of these, 25 forecasts were overly pessimistic when compared to the IMF’s best estimate of actual growth rates in Britain.

Just three predictions were too optimistic. The latest round of gloomy forecasting may well add to the pessimistic tally."

I guess if you knew this information it would be easy to say the IMF would get it wrong.

Overly pessimistic by what percentage? If it's within the error then it isn't unexpected.

Also, if you know this is true then the data is perfectly useable.

Do we know if they are "overly" pessimistic or optimistic about other countries?

If not, it's just some information. Relevant, but incomplete.

It's not really about the data been 'perfectly useable' in a professional sense.

Plenty on this very forum are all more than happy to use pessimistic IMF forecasts to 'prove' how badly the UK are doing.

This is what the debate is borne out of, and why Morley is now telling us again, he was ridiculed for saying the IMF would be wrong, he's been proven right.

Like Brexit people love to use anything negative sounding to champion their dislike and sometimes hatred towards the government. I'm not convinced they know how that looks, I'm not sure they give it much thought either.

I'm is the IMF now having a more positive outlook now "correct" or does it remain equally in doubt?

What if it turns out to be "wrong" in retrospect?

It's data. Positive, negative or otherwise with the intention of identifying medium to long-term global trends.

If anyone can identify more accurate predictions or provide them, that would be great...

I'm of the opinion that a forecast off into the next 12 months or x years, is not worth the paper it is written on, made up of if's, but's and maybe's and when they get it wrong they say, we wasn't to know that event would take a turn. Reminds of a fairground charade, cross my palm with silver and I will tell you your future... It is something we can live without.

How does a Government or company make forward spending and investment decisions?

From their own experiences and people who are at the coal face who work for them, maybe? Talking to other businesses, consumers etc, the usual stuff

... that's making a prediction that is as frequently wrong or right.

An economic forecast is just more data and more consistently applied.

It's also usual stuff

Businesses get it right far more than they get it wrong from their own internal business plans. They work hard to understand the consumer, that is what drives their decisions. Take away the IMF and they will still have their finger on the pulse of their consumers.

You don't think that they don't use economic data to make a multimillion or multibillion pound investment?

Customers change their minds and short notice all the time.

Economic predictions from lots of organisations exist and are used and are found useful by many companies large and small.

I realise that you are giving your opinion and it has worked successfully for you. Are your customers' sentiments not influenced in part by economic data and predictions?

Not really, they spend millions on understanding the ROI. The IMF could predict the end of the £, however if a client sets up a sub project to workout if project or strategy X is going to be a success and that sub project steers green, it is all in regardless. "

Economic predictions may well form part of that assessment. They will in large organisations making large capital investments. I wouldn't imagine that they would look at the IMF alone anyway.

Why would you deliberately ignore this information?

How wrong or right is the data. Perhaps they have done more work than you and are able to put a weighting to it?

Again, you are giving your own opinion on what you have done as an individual, not a universal law of business planning.

Individuals and organisations are influenced by expectations which are, in turn, influenced by economic predictions. That isn't news. It's why there are often lamentations about self-fulfilling prophecies.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London

Interesting article by a senior economist at the IMF about the process being called "wrong".

"Economic Models: Simulations of Reality

FINANCE & DEVELOPMENT

Sam Ouliaris

Economists build simplified descriptions to enhance their understanding of how things work"

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Do you have a proven track record of doing this?

That would count as a qualification in my view."

My posts in this forum

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Do you have a proven track record of doing this?

That would count as a qualification in my view.

I'm not sure on Morleys track record at predicting 'growth' but tbf to him he has a decent track record at telling us the IMF are fucking useless

This is true, with bells on.

He also has a proven track record of saying that Professor Gudgin and Briefings for Britain are the source of all economic truth..."

Aww sweetie still annoyed om that one aren't you that you had no comeback to the point made.

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"No…..The IMF now believes _orleyman’s forecast.

But he thinks the IMF are shit, so why are they going to be correct this time ?

They will be more accurate this time because they have corrected their forecast to agree with his.

Morleyman has been consistent in his opinion, it is the IMF who have recognised their inaccuracy and have now aligned more closely with a realistic position.

He made one prediction 6 weeks ago, fair play , it might be correct , I predicted Man City would win the league 6 weeks ago "

I have always said the uk will not experience a decline this year.

I said that the imf were not even close because you will need 3 quarters of a 0.4 decline for them to be right.

So many irate because 1 man's index finger in the wind is better than the IMF

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does. "

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%"

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *eroy1000Man
over a year ago

milton keynes


"So we are meant to believe these guys can predict 15 years I to the future.

But in the place of 2 months we've gone form 0.3% contraction to a 0.4% growth.

I've warned previously of these charlatans and putting faith in forecasts. Especially when people don't know how they are calculated.

Finger in the air stuff.

I wish it wasn't so laughable

According to the BBC, the IMF have said that if the UK sticks to its plan then long term growth prospects will be stronger than Germany, France and Italy. I don't understand how that's possible given they are talking long term, the countries being compared to and what we are constantly told about the UK. Hopefully this is accurate but not sure on past performance

That can’t be right then. Morley can tell us what the actual longterm forecast will be.

That's the concern, that it is another prediction that's not reality. Credit where it's due, Morley called this right when some were pointing to the last prediction as proof of something. If the IMF have it right that the UK growth prospects are stronger than Germany, France and Italy, would you say that's good or bad news. I stress the words ' If they have it right'

Apparently they must be right (as long as you ignore when they're wrong) because according to common type on here "I'll believe the experts over some randomer on a swinging website"

I think that's what they usually say."

Something along those lines yes. Personally I was surprised to read it especially as we get told how bad things are and will get worse (unfortunately I have to be told as personal experience differs). I was particularly surprised when they said long term. If it were short term I get the reasoning that the UK is taking up slack though think that's all but done. But long term with all the predicted brexit effects came as a bit of a shock

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?"

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *mateur100Man
over a year ago

nr faversham


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?"

I predict the UK's output will increase by 0 2% of the EU but I reserve the right to change that as and when it suits

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?"

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?"

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?"

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

Google "economic research councils clash of the titans."

You can even enter your own!

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely."

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?"

No they didn't.

They said they predicted less growth because of the removal of the lizz truss budget. Not less growth because of it.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

Again though.

Just easy uk rewriting history.

"The Bank of England’s interest rate is currently 2.25% and is expected to be raised further at the next meeting of decision makers in November.

This is set to take its toll next year as consumers cut back on spending and businesses slow down investments, resulting in slower growth, the IMF said.

The body noted that its forecast was prepared before the Government unveiled its mini-budget which set out sweeping tax cuts including on stamp duty and income tax.

It said: “The fiscal package is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation.” "

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?"

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

No they didn't.

They said they predicted less growth because of the removal of the lizz truss budget. Not less growth because of it."

Sure.

"The poor growth was blamed on three factors: the UK's dependency on gas - which has rocketed since the invasion of Ukraine; the fact employment has not returned to pre-pandemic levels; and increasing interest rates which have made mortgage payments more expensive."

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-economy-to-fare-worse-than-any-other-country-in-developed-world-this-year-imf-forecasts-12799201#:~:text=Data%20%26%20Forensics-,UK%20economy%20to%20fare%20worse%20than%20any%20other%20country%20in,lag%20behind%20Russia's%20in%202023.

"Let's start with the provisos. There are a few reasons why the UK comes out of these latest International Monetary Fund forecasts especially badly.

The main one is that the previous IMF forecast, produced in October, didn't reflect the impact of the mini-budget. That partly explains why the UK got a downgrade when most other countries saw upgrades to their prospects.

Then there's the fact that the IMF seems to be taking a particularly pessimistic view on how quickly inflation will fall in the UK. This may or may not be right but it certainly paints the UK in a worse light than most of its peers."

https://news.sky.com/story/why-does-the-uk-fare-so-poorly-in-the-latest-imf-forecast-12799691

"The short answer is that the UK economic environment has worsened after September's mini-budget. The tax and interest rate rises required will slow the UK economy in particular alongside the more common shock of still high energy prices."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64452995.amp

We are happily performing better despite Truss, it would seem.

Still interested to know where your opinion is formed on this.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters."

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"Again though.

Just easy uk rewriting history.

"The Bank of England’s interest rate is currently 2.25% and is expected to be raised further at the next meeting of decision makers in November.

This is set to take its toll next year as consumers cut back on spending and businesses slow down investments, resulting in slower growth, the IMF said.

The body noted that its forecast was prepared before the Government unveiled its mini-budget which set out sweeping tax cuts including on stamp duty and income tax.

It said: “The fiscal package is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation.” ""

Is one year considered "the near term"? One quarter?

Angels dancing on the head of a pin?

They said short term GDP increase, more money, therefore more inflation, therefore higher interest rates the purpose of which is to contract the economy.

Sugar high then payback.

“Without fiscal contraction elsewhere, and with tight supply, unfunded government spending increases or tax cuts will only push inflation up further and make monetary policymakers’ jobs harder,”

“Fiscal policy should not work at cross-purpose with monetary authorities’ efforts to bring down inflation,”

“Doing so will only prolong inflation and could cause serious financial instability, as recent events illustrated.”

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand.

“Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability.”

“Fiscal policy can help economies adapt to a more volatile environment by investing in productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification,” he said. “Expanding these can make economies more resilient to future crises. Unfortunately, these important principles are not always guiding policy right now.”

This was all said in October, not in January when the next projection was released and the UK had gone through exchange rate and Gilts chaos.

So no, it doesn't mean that they adjusted their forecasts down that sharply because of Truss' unfunded spending increases.

However, you could take a sentence in isolation and read what you wish into it.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"Again though.

Just easy uk rewriting history.

"The Bank of England’s interest rate is currently 2.25% and is expected to be raised further at the next meeting of decision makers in November.

This is set to take its toll next year as consumers cut back on spending and businesses slow down investments, resulting in slower growth, the IMF said.

The body noted that its forecast was prepared before the Government unveiled its mini-budget which set out sweeping tax cuts including on stamp duty and income tax.

It said: “The fiscal package is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation.” ""

Is one year considered "the near term"? One quarter?

Angels dancing on the head of a pin?

They said short term GDP increase, more money, therefore more inflation, therefore higher interest rates the purpose of which is to contract the economy.

Sugar high then payback.

“Without fiscal contraction elsewhere, and with tight supply, unfunded government spending increases or tax cuts will only push inflation up further and make monetary policymakers’ jobs harder,”

“Fiscal policy should not work at cross-purpose with monetary authorities’ efforts to bring down inflation,”

“Doing so will only prolong inflation and could cause serious financial instability, as recent events illustrated.”

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand.

“Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability.”

“Fiscal policy can help economies adapt to a more volatile environment by investing in productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification,” he said. “Expanding these can make economies more resilient to future crises. Unfortunately, these important principles are not always guiding policy right now.”

This was all said in October, not in January when the next projection was released and the UK had gone through exchange rate and Gilts chaos.

So no, it doesn't mean that they adjusted their forecasts down that sharply because of Truss' unfunded spending increases.

However, you could take a sentence in isolation and read what you wish into it.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Again though.

Just easy uk rewriting history.

"The Bank of England’s interest rate is currently 2.25% and is expected to be raised further at the next meeting of decision makers in November.

This is set to take its toll next year as consumers cut back on spending and businesses slow down investments, resulting in slower growth, the IMF said.

The body noted that its forecast was prepared before the Government unveiled its mini-budget which set out sweeping tax cuts including on stamp duty and income tax.

It said: “The fiscal package is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation.” "

Is one year considered "the near term"? One quarter?

Angels dancing on the head of a pin?

They said short term GDP increase, more money, therefore more inflation, therefore higher interest rates the purpose of which is to contract the economy.

Sugar high then payback.

“Without fiscal contraction elsewhere, and with tight supply, unfunded government spending increases or tax cuts will only push inflation up further and make monetary policymakers’ jobs harder,”

“Fiscal policy should not work at cross-purpose with monetary authorities’ efforts to bring down inflation,”

“Doing so will only prolong inflation and could cause serious financial instability, as recent events illustrated.”

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand.

“Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability.”

“Fiscal policy can help economies adapt to a more volatile environment by investing in productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification,” he said. “Expanding these can make economies more resilient to future crises. Unfortunately, these important principles are not always guiding policy right now.”

This was all said in October, not in January when the next projection was released and the UK had gone through exchange rate and Gilts chaos.

So no, it doesn't mean that they adjusted their forecasts down that sharply because of Truss' unfunded spending increases.

However, you could take a sentence in isolation and read what you wish into it."

So instead of floudnering like tbe above.

Sometimes it's better and more adult to jsut admit you made your stance up.

The I f didn't say the Truss budget would lead to lower growth

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

4 long replies instead of just saying "I made it up"

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?"

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?"

Have a look at what every else predicted and the rankings

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists."

Like who? I am genuinely interested

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested "

Dilip shah. Currently second.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"Again though.

Just easy uk rewriting history.

"The Bank of England’s interest rate is currently 2.25% and is expected to be raised further at the next meeting of decision makers in November.

This is set to take its toll next year as consumers cut back on spending and businesses slow down investments, resulting in slower growth, the IMF said.

The body noted that its forecast was prepared before the Government unveiled its mini-budget which set out sweeping tax cuts including on stamp duty and income tax.

It said: “The fiscal package is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation.” "

Is one year considered "the near term"? One quarter?

Angels dancing on the head of a pin?

They said short term GDP increase, more money, therefore more inflation, therefore higher interest rates the purpose of which is to contract the economy.

Sugar high then payback.

“Without fiscal contraction elsewhere, and with tight supply, unfunded government spending increases or tax cuts will only push inflation up further and make monetary policymakers’ jobs harder,”

“Fiscal policy should not work at cross-purpose with monetary authorities’ efforts to bring down inflation,”

“Doing so will only prolong inflation and could cause serious financial instability, as recent events illustrated.”

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand.

“Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability.”

“Fiscal policy can help economies adapt to a more volatile environment by investing in productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification,” he said. “Expanding these can make economies more resilient to future crises. Unfortunately, these important principles are not always guiding policy right now.”

This was all said in October, not in January when the next projection was released and the UK had gone through exchange rate and Gilts chaos.

So no, it doesn't mean that they adjusted their forecasts down that sharply because of Truss' unfunded spending increases.

However, you could take a sentence in isolation and read what you wish into it.

So instead of floudnering like tbe above.

Sometimes it's better and more adult to jsut admit you made your stance up.

The I f didn't say the Truss budget would lead to lower growth "

For someone who claims to know so much about economics, you seem to be struggling about what the consequences of higher inflation and interest rates are which were the consequences which were warned of after the short term growth due to there being a little more cash available to rich people to "trickle down" to the rest.

However, you know best.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

Have a look at what every else predicted and the rankings"

What's the difference between the predicted and actual figures?

-1% -0.2% +1.4% +0.8%

You are apoplectic about the IMF predictions.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Again though.

Just easy uk rewriting history.

"The Bank of England’s interest rate is currently 2.25% and is expected to be raised further at the next meeting of decision makers in November.

This is set to take its toll next year as consumers cut back on spending and businesses slow down investments, resulting in slower growth, the IMF said.

The body noted that its forecast was prepared before the Government unveiled its mini-budget which set out sweeping tax cuts including on stamp duty and income tax.

It said: “The fiscal package is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation.” "

Is one year considered "the near term"? One quarter?

Angels dancing on the head of a pin?

They said short term GDP increase, more money, therefore more inflation, therefore higher interest rates the purpose of which is to contract the economy.

Sugar high then payback.

“Without fiscal contraction elsewhere, and with tight supply, unfunded government spending increases or tax cuts will only push inflation up further and make monetary policymakers’ jobs harder,”

“Fiscal policy should not work at cross-purpose with monetary authorities’ efforts to bring down inflation,”

“Doing so will only prolong inflation and could cause serious financial instability, as recent events illustrated.”

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand.

“Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability.”

“Fiscal policy can help economies adapt to a more volatile environment by investing in productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification,” he said. “Expanding these can make economies more resilient to future crises. Unfortunately, these important principles are not always guiding policy right now.”

This was all said in October, not in January when the next projection was released and the UK had gone through exchange rate and Gilts chaos.

So no, it doesn't mean that they adjusted their forecasts down that sharply because of Truss' unfunded spending increases.

However, you could take a sentence in isolation and read what you wish into it.

So instead of floudnering like tbe above.

Sometimes it's better and more adult to jsut admit you made your stance up.

The I f didn't say the Truss budget would lead to lower growth

For someone who claims to know so much about economics, you seem to be struggling about what the consequences of higher inflation and interest rates are which were the consequences which were warned of after the short term growth due to there being a little more cash available to rich people to "trickle down" to the rest.

However, you know best."

You said the imf said original truss budget would lead tomlower growth.

Simple question. Did they say that? Yes or no?

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second."

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter "

You don't need followers to be good.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good."

Nobody cares or is even reading anything he is saying, his information is obviously made up , irrelevant bull shit,

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Nobody cares or is even reading anything he is saying, his information is obviously made up , irrelevant bull shit, "

You can dislike the guy and discredit him all you like but 'made-up irrelevant bullshit' wouldn't have him sitting second in the table.

FFS, the lengths you'll go to for the sake of 'winning'

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Nobody cares or is even reading anything he is saying, his information is obviously made up , irrelevant bull shit, "

Dilip Shah is a massive supporter of Liz Truss and her failed budget,

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Nobody cares or is even reading anything he is saying, his information is obviously made up , irrelevant bull shit,

Dilip Shah is a massive supporter of Liz Truss and her failed budget, "
her budget was never implemented.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Nobody cares or is even reading anything he is saying, his information is obviously made up , irrelevant bull shit,

Dilip Shah is a massive supporter of Liz Truss and her failed budget, her budget was never implemented."

Thankfully not, just the thought of it crashed the economy, this must be the reason why mr Shah isn’t taken seriously

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good."

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?"

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?"

Nope.

Re read what i said.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said."

Sorry “over 10k”


"

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

"

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"Again though.

Just easy uk rewriting history.

"The Bank of England’s interest rate is currently 2.25% and is expected to be raised further at the next meeting of decision makers in November.

This is set to take its toll next year as consumers cut back on spending and businesses slow down investments, resulting in slower growth, the IMF said.

The body noted that its forecast was prepared before the Government unveiled its mini-budget which set out sweeping tax cuts including on stamp duty and income tax.

It said: “The fiscal package is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation.” "

Is one year considered "the near term"? One quarter?

Angels dancing on the head of a pin?

They said short term GDP increase, more money, therefore more inflation, therefore higher interest rates the purpose of which is to contract the economy.

Sugar high then payback.

“Without fiscal contraction elsewhere, and with tight supply, unfunded government spending increases or tax cuts will only push inflation up further and make monetary policymakers’ jobs harder,”

“Fiscal policy should not work at cross-purpose with monetary authorities’ efforts to bring down inflation,”

“Doing so will only prolong inflation and could cause serious financial instability, as recent events illustrated.”

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand.

“Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability.”

“Fiscal policy can help economies adapt to a more volatile environment by investing in productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification,” he said. “Expanding these can make economies more resilient to future crises. Unfortunately, these important principles are not always guiding policy right now.”

This was all said in October, not in January when the next projection was released and the UK had gone through exchange rate and Gilts chaos.

So no, it doesn't mean that they adjusted their forecasts down that sharply because of Truss' unfunded spending increases.

However, you could take a sentence in isolation and read what you wish into it.

So instead of floudnering like tbe above.

Sometimes it's better and more adult to jsut admit you made your stance up.

The I f didn't say the Truss budget would lead to lower growth

For someone who claims to know so much about economics, you seem to be struggling about what the consequences of higher inflation and interest rates are which were the consequences which were warned of after the short term growth due to there being a little more cash available to rich people to "trickle down" to the rest.

However, you know best.

You said the imf said original truss budget would lead tomlower growth.

Simple question. Did they say that? Yes or no?"

They did say that it would increase growth "in the near term".

They also said on the same sentence: "while complicating the fight against inflation".

So, what does worse inflation do to growth? Does it increase GDP?

I quoted you all the other reasons that they said this budget would be bad for the economy.

However, you want to talk incessantly about one sentence as if that's the only meaningful thing.

Micro victory. Bravo. Slow clap

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good."

Difference between his predictions and actual GDP:

-1% -0.2% +1.4% +0.8%

I ask again, is that "good"?

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

"

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Difference between his predictions and actual GDP:

-1% -0.2% +1.4% +0.8%

I ask again, is that "good"?"

And the year overall...would you like tk assess this years and other years too?-

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Again though.

Just easy uk rewriting history.

"The Bank of England’s interest rate is currently 2.25% and is expected to be raised further at the next meeting of decision makers in November.

This is set to take its toll next year as consumers cut back on spending and businesses slow down investments, resulting in slower growth, the IMF said.

The body noted that its forecast was prepared before the Government unveiled its mini-budget which set out sweeping tax cuts including on stamp duty and income tax.

It said: “The fiscal package is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation.” "

Is one year considered "the near term"? One quarter?

Angels dancing on the head of a pin?

They said short term GDP increase, more money, therefore more inflation, therefore higher interest rates the purpose of which is to contract the economy.

Sugar high then payback.

“Without fiscal contraction elsewhere, and with tight supply, unfunded government spending increases or tax cuts will only push inflation up further and make monetary policymakers’ jobs harder,”

“Fiscal policy should not work at cross-purpose with monetary authorities’ efforts to bring down inflation,”

“Doing so will only prolong inflation and could cause serious financial instability, as recent events illustrated.”

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand.

“Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability.”

“Fiscal policy can help economies adapt to a more volatile environment by investing in productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification,” he said. “Expanding these can make economies more resilient to future crises. Unfortunately, these important principles are not always guiding policy right now.”

This was all said in October, not in January when the next projection was released and the UK had gone through exchange rate and Gilts chaos.

So no, it doesn't mean that they adjusted their forecasts down that sharply because of Truss' unfunded spending increases.

However, you could take a sentence in isolation and read what you wish into it.

So instead of floudnering like tbe above.

Sometimes it's better and more adult to jsut admit you made your stance up.

The I f didn't say the Truss budget would lead to lower growth

For someone who claims to know so much about economics, you seem to be struggling about what the consequences of higher inflation and interest rates are which were the consequences which were warned of after the short term growth due to there being a little more cash available to rich people to "trickle down" to the rest.

However, you know best.

You said the imf said original truss budget would lead tomlower growth.

Simple question. Did they say that? Yes or no?

They did say that it would increase growth "in the near term".

They also said on the same sentence: "while complicating the fight against inflation".

So, what does worse inflation do to growth? Does it increase GDP?

I quoted you all the other reasons that they said this budget would be bad for the economy.

However, you want to talk incessantly about one sentence as if that's the only meaningful thing.

Micro victory. Bravo. Slow clap "

Yes it would increase growth..

The never said it would decrease.growth.

That's what you claimed. What you claimed was not true.

Thanks for admitting you lied.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?"

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?"

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

"

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!"

Come on....

"Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics."

He was stating he puts it to the test, you know that.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!"

Dillip Shah is a charlatan, he claims to be the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade, his bio is bull shit

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Dillip Shah is a charlatan, he claims to be the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade, his bio is bull shit "

Are you just claiming bullshit or can you prove that? I don't know the answer but unless you can prove it then we can say you're chatting shit.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Come on....

"Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics."

He was stating he puts it to the test, you know that."

Yes with his 10k followers that he was saying gave him credentials. Then when Dilip Shah’s 1000 followers was questioned Morley said that didn’t indicate whether he was good and I asked again about Morley claiming over 10k followers.

So either the number of followers is or is not an indicator of someone’s credentials! Which is it?

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Dillip Shah is a charlatan, he claims to be the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade, his bio is bull shit

Are you just claiming bullshit or can you prove that? I don't know the answer but unless you can prove it then we can say you're chatting shit."

This coming from fab who yesterday titled a thread about immigration saying it excluded asylum seekers. When given 3 different sources countering that claim said he was not wrong and wouldn't correct himself

Hes just a troll sadly.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read "

What is your Twitter name? I have no problems if you don’t want to tell me though

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Come on....

"Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics."

He was stating he puts it to the test, you know that.

Yes with his 10k followers that he was saying gave him credentials. Then when Dilip Shah’s 1000 followers was questioned Morley said that didn’t indicate whether he was good and I asked again about Morley claiming over 10k followers.

So either the number of followers is or is not an indicator of someone’s credentials! Which is it?"

I don't believe he posted the numbers to show his 'credentials'. You asked him how many followers he had.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Come on....

"Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics."

He was stating he puts it to the test, you know that.

Yes with his 10k followers that he was saying gave him credentials. Then when Dilip Shah’s 1000 followers was questioned Morley said that didn’t indicate whether he was good and I asked again about Morley claiming over 10k followers.

So either the number of followers is or is not an indicator of someone’s credentials! Which is it?"

Nope.

I suggest you learn to read.

I copy pasted what you said.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

What is your Twitter name? I have no problems if you don’t want to tell me though "

Not a chance I am telling a troll like you.

It's my real name.

It's bad enough that when you correct people about historical events on there they try and dox you. And call your employer.

Let alone the people on here.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Dillip Shah is a charlatan, he claims to be the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade, his bio is bull shit

Are you just claiming bullshit or can you prove that? I don't know the answer but unless you can prove it then we can say you're chatting shit.

This coming from fab who yesterday titled a thread about immigration saying it excluded asylum seekers. When given 3 different sources countering that claim said he was not wrong and wouldn't correct himself

Hes just a troll sadly."

No need for personal insults, the figures I quoted were from the initial BBC report, 90 % of asylum seekers (the figure that they estimate will gain asylum) was the correct figure, we were both wrong

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Dillip Shah is a charlatan, he claims to be the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade, his bio is bull shit

Are you just claiming bullshit or can you prove that? I don't know the answer but unless you can prove it then we can say you're chatting shit.

This coming from fab who yesterday titled a thread about immigration saying it excluded asylum seekers. When given 3 different sources countering that claim said he was not wrong and wouldn't correct himself

Hes just a troll sadly.

No need for personal insults, the figures I quoted were from the initial BBC report, 90 % of asylum seekers (the figure that they estimate will gain asylum) was the correct figure, we were both wrong "

No they weren't.you misread.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

What is your Twitter name? I have no problems if you don’t want to tell me though

Not a chance I am telling a troll like you.

It's my real name.

It's bad enough that when you correct people about historical events on there they try and dox you. And call your employer.

Let alone the people on here."

No need for personal insults, I don’t have a problem with you not giving me your Twitter name, makes me wonder if it exists though

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Dillip Shah is a charlatan, he claims to be the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade, his bio is bull shit

Are you just claiming bullshit or can you prove that? I don't know the answer but unless you can prove it then we can say you're chatting shit.

This coming from fab who yesterday titled a thread about immigration saying it excluded asylum seekers. When given 3 different sources countering that claim said he was not wrong and wouldn't correct himself

Hes just a troll sadly.

No need for personal insults, the figures I quoted were from the initial BBC report, 90 % of asylum seekers (the figure that they estimate will gain asylum) was the correct figure, we were both wrong

No they weren't.you misread."

We both did

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read "

And I am sorry you don’t understand how to follow a conversation and just cherry pick certain elements. Your quote above is incomplete. Let me help...


"Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics."

“Twitter Account with significant followers” is clearly an attempt at establishing credentials. We then established that was “over 10k” so now a quantifiable attempt at credentials.

So who has more credentials, you or Dilip Shah?

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Dillip Shah is a charlatan, he claims to be the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade, his bio is bull shit

Are you just claiming bullshit or can you prove that? I don't know the answer but unless you can prove it then we can say you're chatting shit.

This coming from fab who yesterday titled a thread about immigration saying it excluded asylum seekers. When given 3 different sources countering that claim said he was not wrong and wouldn't correct himself

Hes just a troll sadly.

No need for personal insults, the figures I quoted were from the initial BBC report, 90 % of asylum seekers (the figure that they estimate will gain asylum) was the correct figure, we were both wrong

No they weren't.you misread.

We both did "

Again an adult unable to deal.with being wrong on this forum.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

And I am sorry you don’t understand how to follow a conversation and just cherry pick certain elements. Your quote above is incomplete. Let me help...

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

“Twitter Account with significant followers” is clearly an attempt at establishing credentials. We then established that was “over 10k” so now a quantifiable attempt at credentials.

So who has more credentials, you or Dilip Shah?"

Nope I am sorry. Again you can't read. Please show me where is an it's anything about credentials...you asked why indont reply on other forums. I expressed I did. On twitter and other forums and I had a significant following.

You have interpreted that yourself as credentials.

No one indicated or ever believed it was except those that can't read.

Be an adult.

Admit you got it wrong.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

And I am sorry you don’t understand how to follow a conversation and just cherry pick certain elements. Your quote above is incomplete. Let me help...

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

“Twitter Account with significant followers” is clearly an attempt at establishing credentials. We then established that was “over 10k” so now a quantifiable attempt at credentials.

So who has more credentials, you or Dilip Shah?"

Dilip shah has VASTLY more credentials than i

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point."

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

And I am sorry you don’t understand how to follow a conversation and just cherry pick certain elements. Your quote above is incomplete. Let me help...

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

“Twitter Account with significant followers” is clearly an attempt at establishing credentials. We then established that was “over 10k” so now a quantifiable attempt at credentials.

So who has more credentials, you or Dilip Shah?

Nope I am sorry. Again you can't read. Please show me where is an it's anything about credentials...you asked why indont reply on other forums. I expressed I did. On twitter and other forums and I had a significant following.

You have interpreted that yourself as credentials.

No one indicated or ever believed it was except those that can't read.

Be an adult.

Admit you got it wrong."

Oh the irony. It is you who needs to grow up and admit when you make a mistake.

The context on credentials was crystal clear. You were trying to use your “Twitter Account with significant followers” as credentials but have had to back peddle when it turns out your over 10k is higher than Dilip Shah and claimed his 1k was not an indicator.

It’s ok to admit you were trying to over egg your own position. I know it is a bit embarrassing for you but it really would be good to put on the big boy pants now and admit you cocked up.

You won’t as you lack humility. You are pretty good at gaslighting but when the evidence is in black and white we can go back and check.

Oh and if the context or question wasn’t clear, you could have asked to clarify.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

And I am sorry you don’t understand how to follow a conversation and just cherry pick certain elements. Your quote above is incomplete. Let me help...

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

“Twitter Account with significant followers” is clearly an attempt at establishing credentials. We then established that was “over 10k” so now a quantifiable attempt at credentials.

So who has more credentials, you or Dilip Shah?

Nope I am sorry. Again you can't read. Please show me where is an it's anything about credentials...you asked why indont reply on other forums. I expressed I did. On twitter and other forums and I had a significant following.

You have interpreted that yourself as credentials.

No one indicated or ever believed it was except those that can't read.

Be an adult.

Admit you got it wrong.

Oh the irony. It is you who needs to grow up and admit when you make a mistake.

The context on credentials was crystal clear. You were trying to use your “Twitter Account with significant followers” as credentials but have had to back peddle when it turns out your over 10k is higher than Dilip Shah and claimed his 1k was not an indicator.

It’s ok to admit you were trying to over egg your own position. I know it is a bit embarrassing for you but it really would be good to put on the big boy pants now and admit you cocked up.

You won’t as you lack humility. You are pretty good at gaslighting but when the evidence is in black and white we can go back and check.

Oh and if the context or question wasn’t clear, you could have asked to clarify."

I do admit when I make mistakes.

Can you be an adult and admit yours?

Again please provide tbe evidence where any one says follower count is credentials.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit "

That's funny. His follower count hasn't gone up

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit

That's funny. His follower count hasn't gone up "

Where did he get his ‘best economic forecaster of the decade ‘ award from?

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit

That's funny. His follower count hasn't gone up

Where did he get his ‘best economic forecaster of the decade ‘ award from? "

This is what the ERC say about him:

"Dilip Shah has been an economist for over 15 years working in both the public and private sector. As a regular entrant of the public Clash of the Titans forecasting competition, Dilip has excelled with his forecasts. He has won the overall competition on two occasions, beating all previous professional titans and hundreds of public entrants. Dilip has almost always ended up in the top ten with forecasts that barely differ from the real data."

I don't know the fella but a little research into these things can help

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit

That's funny. His follower count hasn't gone up "

I can assure you it did! Maybe he lost some? Net followers!!

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit

That's funny. His follower count hasn't gone up

I can assure you it did! Maybe he lost some? Net followers!!"

Have you read his bio and his posts? I would have the thought the ‘most accurate economic forecaster of the decade ‘ would be more popular, it seems most of his forecasts were done in competitions and not real life situations

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

And I am sorry you don’t understand how to follow a conversation and just cherry pick certain elements. Your quote above is incomplete. Let me help...

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

“Twitter Account with significant followers” is clearly an attempt at establishing credentials. We then established that was “over 10k” so now a quantifiable attempt at credentials.

So who has more credentials, you or Dilip Shah?

Nope I am sorry. Again you can't read. Please show me where is an it's anything about credentials...you asked why indont reply on other forums. I expressed I did. On twitter and other forums and I had a significant following.

You have interpreted that yourself as credentials.

No one indicated or ever believed it was except those that can't read.

Be an adult.

Admit you got it wrong.

Oh the irony. It is you who needs to grow up and admit when you make a mistake.

The context on credentials was crystal clear. You were trying to use your “Twitter Account with significant followers” as credentials but have had to back peddle when it turns out your over 10k is higher than Dilip Shah and claimed his 1k was not an indicator.

It’s ok to admit you were trying to over egg your own position. I know it is a bit embarrassing for you but it really would be good to put on the big boy pants now and admit you cocked up.

You won’t as you lack humility. You are pretty good at gaslighting but when the evidence is in black and white we can go back and check.

Oh and if the context or question wasn’t clear, you could have asked to clarify.

I do admit when I make mistakes.

Can you be an adult and admit yours?

Again please provide tbe evidence where any one says follower count is credentials.

"

I don’t need to because I haven’t. You clearly put forward “Twitter Account with significant followers” as part of your credentials. A blind man can see that. You then back peddled.

Let’s make this simple:

Q. What are your economic forecasting credentials?

Q. Does having a “Twitter Account with significant followers” provide you with credentials?

BTW glad we established Dilip Shah has vastly more credentials than you.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit

That's funny. His follower count hasn't gone up

I can assure you it did! Maybe he lost some? Net followers!!

Have you read his bio and his posts? I would have the thought the ‘most accurate economic forecaster of the decade ‘ would be more popular, it seems most of his forecasts were done in competitions and not real life situations "

Danny blsnchflower had about 70k and worked at the BofE

The man got ever single forecast wrong.

Thankfully he's now been booted of twitter and his zealots have gone quiet.

As stated followers aren't credentials.

I dont know why you are obsessed with that.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

And I am sorry you don’t understand how to follow a conversation and just cherry pick certain elements. Your quote above is incomplete. Let me help...

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

“Twitter Account with significant followers” is clearly an attempt at establishing credentials. We then established that was “over 10k” so now a quantifiable attempt at credentials.

So who has more credentials, you or Dilip Shah?

Nope I am sorry. Again you can't read. Please show me where is an it's anything about credentials...you asked why indont reply on other forums. I expressed I did. On twitter and other forums and I had a significant following.

You have interpreted that yourself as credentials.

No one indicated or ever believed it was except those that can't read.

Be an adult.

Admit you got it wrong.

Oh the irony. It is you who needs to grow up and admit when you make a mistake.

The context on credentials was crystal clear. You were trying to use your “Twitter Account with significant followers” as credentials but have had to back peddle when it turns out your over 10k is higher than Dilip Shah and claimed his 1k was not an indicator.

It’s ok to admit you were trying to over egg your own position. I know it is a bit embarrassing for you but it really would be good to put on the big boy pants now and admit you cocked up.

You won’t as you lack humility. You are pretty good at gaslighting but when the evidence is in black and white we can go back and check.

Oh and if the context or question wasn’t clear, you could have asked to clarify.

I do admit when I make mistakes.

Can you be an adult and admit yours?

Again please provide tbe evidence where any one says follower count is credentials.

I don’t need to because I haven’t. You clearly put forward “Twitter Account with significant followers” as part of your credentials. A blind man can see that. You then back peddled.

Let’s make this simple:

Q. What are your economic forecasting credentials?

Q. Does having a “Twitter Account with significant followers” provide you with credentials?

BTW glad we established Dilip Shah has vastly more credentials than you."

So your assumption is that when I reply about you asking why I don't post on other forums and I say I do and that they get most of my time because of the larger interaction. You assume that's " credentials" this isn't a me problem. It's a Birldn problem.

You read something incorrectly. You interpreted how you wanted to interpret it . Not what was actually written.

Be better in future?

Be an adult and admit your mistake.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit

That's funny. His follower count hasn't gone up

I can assure you it did! Maybe he lost some? Net followers!!

Have you read his bio and his posts? I would have the thought the ‘most accurate economic forecaster of the decade ‘ would be more popular, it seems most of his forecasts were done in competitions and not real life situations

Danny blsnchflower had about 70k and worked at the BofE

The man got ever single forecast wrong.

Thankfully he's now been booted of twitter and his zealots have gone quiet.

As stated followers aren't credentials.

I dont know why you are obsessed with that."

Where did Dilip shah gets his ‘most accurate economic forecaster of the decade ‘ award from?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit

That's funny. His follower count hasn't gone up

I can assure you it did! Maybe he lost some? Net followers!!

Have you read his bio and his posts? I would have the thought the ‘most accurate economic forecaster of the decade ‘ would be more popular, it seems most of his forecasts were done in competitions and not real life situations

Danny blsnchflower had about 70k and worked at the BofE

The man got ever single forecast wrong.

Thankfully he's now been booted of twitter and his zealots have gone quiet.

As stated followers aren't credentials.

I dont know why you are obsessed with that.

Where did Dilip shah gets his ‘most accurate economic forecaster of the decade ‘ award from? "

Tweet him and ask?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

His bio would seem to indicate this is the ERC saying it.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Ironically your point on dilip shah. Proves my point. He has less followers but I follow him for economic input.

And I recommended other people on here to look him up.

You've undone your own silly poorly read point.

Iam following him, his claims that he is the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade is bull shit

That's funny. His follower count hasn't gone up

I can assure you it did! Maybe he lost some? Net followers!!

Have you read his bio and his posts? I would have the thought the ‘most accurate economic forecaster of the decade ‘ would be more popular, it seems most of his forecasts were done in competitions and not real life situations

Danny blsnchflower had about 70k and worked at the BofE

The man got ever single forecast wrong.

Thankfully he's now been booted of twitter and his zealots have gone quiet.

As stated followers aren't credentials.

I dont know why you are obsessed with that.

Where did Dilip shah gets his ‘most accurate economic forecaster of the decade ‘ award from?

Tweet him and ask?"

I have just sent him a DM

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"His bio would seem to indicate this is the ERC saying it."

Does he have a website, or has he written any articles or published work?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


""While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does."

You asked me to put my credentials to the test.

I posted my expected growth. For this year.

I had so said previously the uk would not decline.

You also asked why I didn't post on more appropriate forums.

I do.

This is why I could tell easy uk about the competition on economic research council, and I mentioned I posted on twitter. Which takes up more of my time because I interact with substantially more people on there.

At bo point did I ever say the total twitter following was relevant to credentials.

I am sorry you can't read

And I am sorry you don’t understand how to follow a conversation and just cherry pick certain elements. Your quote above is incomplete. Let me help...

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

“Twitter Account with significant followers” is clearly an attempt at establishing credentials. We then established that was “over 10k” so now a quantifiable attempt at credentials.

So who has more credentials, you or Dilip Shah?

Nope I am sorry. Again you can't read. Please show me where is an it's anything about credentials...you asked why indont reply on other forums. I expressed I did. On twitter and other forums and I had a significant following.

You have interpreted that yourself as credentials.

No one indicated or ever believed it was except those that can't read.

Be an adult.

Admit you got it wrong.

Oh the irony. It is you who needs to grow up and admit when you make a mistake.

The context on credentials was crystal clear. You were trying to use your “Twitter Account with significant followers” as credentials but have had to back peddle when it turns out your over 10k is higher than Dilip Shah and claimed his 1k was not an indicator.

It’s ok to admit you were trying to over egg your own position. I know it is a bit embarrassing for you but it really would be good to put on the big boy pants now and admit you cocked up.

You won’t as you lack humility. You are pretty good at gaslighting but when the evidence is in black and white we can go back and check.

Oh and if the context or question wasn’t clear, you could have asked to clarify.

I do admit when I make mistakes.

Can you be an adult and admit yours?

Again please provide tbe evidence where any one says follower count is credentials.

I don’t need to because I haven’t. You clearly put forward “Twitter Account with significant followers” as part of your credentials. A blind man can see that. You then back peddled.

Let’s make this simple:

Q. What are your economic forecasting credentials?

Q. Does having a “Twitter Account with significant followers” provide you with credentials?

BTW glad we established Dilip Shah has vastly more credentials than you.

So your assumption is that when I reply about you asking why I don't post on other forums and I say I do and that they get most of my time because of the larger interaction. You assume that's " credentials" this isn't a me problem. It's a Birldn problem.

You read something incorrectly. You interpreted how you wanted to interpret it . Not what was actually written.

Be better in future?

Be an adult and admit your mistake. "

I can level the same thing at you re “read something incorrectly” as I was clearly talking about credentials.

You knew exactly what you were replying to but you are now back peddling. You thought saying “Twitter Account with significant followers” gave you credentials and now you are trying to claim otherwise.

You are really embarrassing yourself by trying the whole “I may have said that but that was not what I meant” defence.

Oh well never mind, had hoped for better from you but all we seem to have established is you don’t have credentials just Twitter followers!

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does. "

"Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does"

I replied with my forecast for the next 12. Months

Did you miss that bit?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Didn’t you say yesterday you had 10k followers on Twitter as an indicator of your credentials?

Nope.

Re read what i said.

Sorry “over 10k”

"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

A Twitter Account AND posting on a swinger website! You are wasted! The FT, BoE, IMF itself etc etc must be bashing your door down?

What do you class as significant followers for a Twitter Account?

BTW I am not doubting you "

Over 10k.

Where do I say it's an I doctor pf credentials sorry?

Ah the old “despite using words to answer the point you were making and within the given context, it wasn’t actually what I meant” argument!

So when I talked about credentials and you responded you had a twitter account with significant followers, and I asked what significant was and you said over 10k, that wasn’t you saying that gave you credentials? So why did you raise the point of twitter and over 10k followers?

You merely asked about followers numbers.

I answered.

I asked a specific question that was clearly within the context of having credentials. Seemed pretty obvious to me!

So your over 10k followers is irrelevant to you having any credentials then?

So does that mean you have no credentials?

Still amazed you have over 10 times more followers than Dilip Shah but no credentials!

Dillip Shah is a charlatan, he claims to be the most accurate economic forecaster of the decade, his bio is bull shit

Are you just claiming bullshit or can you prove that? I don't know the answer but unless you can prove it then we can say you're chatting shit.

This coming from fab who yesterday titled a thread about immigration saying it excluded asylum seekers. When given 3 different sources countering that claim said he was not wrong and wouldn't correct himself

Hes just a troll sadly."

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

*Your questions*

While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does. "

*My reply*

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

You asked about why I come on here and not other forums.I replied I do both amd have a significant following

Your follow up query was asking me to forecast.

I give you a forecast I expect growth in all 4 quarters and the uk would grow in the year.( as I had previously forecasted)

I am sorry. But you have clearly misread or interpreted what I replied in a way no other person would have.

You asked what a significant following was.

I answered 10k

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

Like I said.

Sometimes better to be an adult and just admit you were wrong.

I've done it on here before. No shame people misread. Read a link that was wrong.

Will you be an adult?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does.

"Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does"

I replied with my forecast for the next 12. Months

Did you miss that bit?"

No I didn’t and that has been cut n pasted so we can revisit later in the year to see how well you have done (and compare to what Shah is saying to see if this is yours or his forecast).

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"Like I said.

Sometimes better to be an adult and just admit you were wrong.

I've done it on here before. No shame people misread. Read a link that was wrong.

Will you be an adult?"

Nice try but you were definitely justifying your credentials by saying “Twitter Account with significant followers” because otherwise you would have just said “Twitter Account where we discuss...” you said “significant” that is a quantifiable qualifying statement.

It’s fine it really is. Your “significant followers” is irrelevant. You chat with randoms over Twitter in the same way you do here. Glad we cleared up your mistake.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

To be honest we never blindly follow information from authorities or regulating bodies without question as a matter of course. The reason for this is we are not brainwashed unthinking idiots.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"To be honest we never blindly follow information from authorities or regulating bodies without question as a matter of course. The reason for this is we are not brainwashed unthinking idiots."

Sensible approach, I bet you don’t just blindly dismiss it though

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

Sensible approach, I bet you don’t just blindly dismiss it though "

No, though more often than not we come to the conclusion that accurate or not the news is being used to distract or obsfucate something else.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

Sensible approach, I bet you don’t just blindly dismiss it though

No, though more often than not we come to the conclusion that accurate or not the news is being used to distract or obsfucate something else."

I can’t argue with that,

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Like I said.

Sometimes better to be an adult and just admit you were wrong.

I've done it on here before. No shame people misread. Read a link that was wrong.

Will you be an adult?

Nice try but you were definitely justifying your credentials by saying “Twitter Account with significant followers” because otherwise you would have just said “Twitter Account where we discuss...” you said “significant” that is a quantifiable qualifying statement.

It’s fine it really is. Your “significant followers” is irrelevant. You chat with randoms over Twitter in the same way you do here. Glad we cleared up your mistake."

No it wasn't but feel free to delusional tell yourself what you want because I've broken down your questions and my answers and you can't justify it.

Glad we got to the bottom of your misunderstanding.

Seems to happen with a lot of left wing people on this forum. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Just keep shouting loudly.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"Like I said.

Sometimes better to be an adult and just admit you were wrong.

I've done it on here before. No shame people misread. Read a link that was wrong.

Will you be an adult?

Nice try but you were definitely justifying your credentials by saying “Twitter Account with significant followers” because otherwise you would have just said “Twitter Account where we discuss...” you said “significant” that is a quantifiable qualifying statement.

It’s fine it really is. Your “significant followers” is irrelevant. You chat with randoms over Twitter in the same way you do here. Glad we cleared up your mistake.

No it wasn't but feel free to delusional tell yourself what you want because I've broken down your questions and my answers and you can't justify it.

Glad we got to the bottom of your misunderstanding.

Seems to happen with a lot of left wing people on this forum. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Just keep shouting loudly."

Oh dear you really can’t ever admit to your mistakes can you! You do understand what a quantifiable qualifying statement is right?

Just admit it. You were trying to be all cocky with your “significant followers” and it backfired through your own subsequent defence of Shah’s measly 1k followers (which is really low for a double winner of the clash of the titans thingy!) If you had simply not mentioned followers it would have all been fine! Live and learn hey?

And “left wing” really! Lol pay closer attention.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"Like I said.

Sometimes better to be an adult and just admit you were wrong.

I've done it on here before. No shame people misread. Read a link that was wrong.

Will you be an adult?

Nice try but you were definitely justifying your credentials by saying “Twitter Account with significant followers” because otherwise you would have just said “Twitter Account where we discuss...” you said “significant” that is a quantifiable qualifying statement.

It’s fine it really is. Your “significant followers” is irrelevant. You chat with randoms over Twitter in the same way you do here. Glad we cleared up your mistake.

No it wasn't but feel free to delusional tell yourself what you want because I've broken down your questions and my answers and you can't justify it.

Glad we got to the bottom of your misunderstanding.

Seems to happen with a lot of left wing people on this forum. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Just keep shouting loudly.

Oh dear you really can’t ever admit to your mistakes can you! You do understand what a quantifiable qualifying statement is right?

Just admit it. You were trying to be all cocky with your “significant followers” and it backfired through your own subsequent defence of Shah’s measly 1k followers (which is really low for a double winner of the clash of the titans thingy!) If you had simply not mentioned followers it would have all been fine! Live and learn hey?

And “left wing” really! Lol pay closer attention."

You found your kryptonite, don't worry we all have one

I wouldn't say left wing but you do clearly hate the (current) tories so if one wasn't to be paying attention I can see they'd think you're left wing

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton


"Like I said.

Sometimes better to be an adult and just admit you were wrong.

I've done it on here before. No shame people misread. Read a link that was wrong.

Will you be an adult?

Nice try but you were definitely justifying your credentials by saying “Twitter Account with significant followers” because otherwise you would have just said “Twitter Account where we discuss...” you said “significant” that is a quantifiable qualifying statement.

It’s fine it really is. Your “significant followers” is irrelevant. You chat with randoms over Twitter in the same way you do here. Glad we cleared up your mistake.

No it wasn't but feel free to delusional tell yourself what you want because I've broken down your questions and my answers and you can't justify it.

Glad we got to the bottom of your misunderstanding.

Seems to happen with a lot of left wing people on this forum. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Just keep shouting loudly.

Oh dear you really can’t ever admit to your mistakes can you! You do understand what a quantifiable qualifying statement is right?

Just admit it. You were trying to be all cocky with your “significant followers” and it backfired through your own subsequent defence of Shah’s measly 1k followers (which is really low for a double winner of the clash of the titans thingy!) If you had simply not mentioned followers it would have all been fine! Live and learn hey?

And “left wing” really! Lol pay closer attention.

You found your kryptonite, don't worry we all have one

I wouldn't say left wing but you do clearly hate the (current) tories so if one wasn't to be paying attention I can see they'd think you're left wing "

That’s a fair observation. Just thought Morley was a details guy so would be playing closer attention

Yeah I hated Johnson and Truss govt. All I can see there is self-serving corruption on an epic scale. Sunak is still hmmmm but an improvement over those two sock puppets. Jury still out on SKS for me and some Labour “policies” (do they actually have proper costed policies yet or will that wait for election manifesto) will actually be detrimental to me and my family do hmmmm!

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By *astandFeistyCouple
over a year ago

Bournemouth


"Like I said.

Sometimes better to be an adult and just admit you were wrong.

I've done it on here before. No shame people misread. Read a link that was wrong.

Will you be an adult?

Nice try but you were definitely justifying your credentials by saying “Twitter Account with significant followers” because otherwise you would have just said “Twitter Account where we discuss...” you said “significant” that is a quantifiable qualifying statement.

It’s fine it really is. Your “significant followers” is irrelevant. You chat with randoms over Twitter in the same way you do here. Glad we cleared up your mistake.

No it wasn't but feel free to delusional tell yourself what you want because I've broken down your questions and my answers and you can't justify it.

Glad we got to the bottom of your misunderstanding.

Seems to happen with a lot of left wing people on this forum. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Just keep shouting loudly.

Oh dear you really can’t ever admit to your mistakes can you! You do understand what a quantifiable qualifying statement is right?

Just admit it. You were trying to be all cocky with your “significant followers” and it backfired through your own subsequent defence of Shah’s measly 1k followers (which is really low for a double winner of the clash of the titans thingy!) If you had simply not mentioned followers it would have all been fine! Live and learn hey?

And “left wing” really! Lol pay closer attention.

You found your kryptonite, don't worry we all have one

I wouldn't say left wing but you do clearly hate the (current) tories so if one wasn't to be paying attention I can see they'd think you're left wing

That’s a fair observation. Just thought Morley was a details guy so would be playing closer attention

Yeah I hated Johnson and Truss govt. All I can see there is self-serving corruption on an epic scale. Sunak is still hmmmm but an improvement over those two sock puppets. Jury still out on SKS for me and some Labour “policies” (do they actually have proper costed policies yet or will that wait for election manifesto) will actually be detrimental to me and my family do hmmmm!"

I'm of the thought that Labour aren't gonna release any costed policies until next year. They'll be worried about releasing them too early.

I like the way Sunak is going about business but maybe that's a reflection of what's he's following.

I don't like the way Labour are trying to smear him. Tell me what you can offer instead of telling me he's shit.

But we shall still wait and see. The likelihood is ill actually vote LibDems anyway (tactically), dependant on Sunak.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Like I said.

Sometimes better to be an adult and just admit you were wrong.

I've done it on here before. No shame people misread. Read a link that was wrong.

Will you be an adult?

Nice try but you were definitely justifying your credentials by saying “Twitter Account with significant followers” because otherwise you would have just said “Twitter Account where we discuss...” you said “significant” that is a quantifiable qualifying statement.

It’s fine it really is. Your “significant followers” is irrelevant. You chat with randoms over Twitter in the same way you do here. Glad we cleared up your mistake.

No it wasn't but feel free to delusional tell yourself what you want because I've broken down your questions and my answers and you can't justify it.

Glad we got to the bottom of your misunderstanding.

Seems to happen with a lot of left wing people on this forum. It doesn't matter if you're wrong. Just keep shouting loudly.

Oh dear you really can’t ever admit to your mistakes can you! You do understand what a quantifiable qualifying statement is right?

Just admit it. You were trying to be all cocky with your “significant followers” and it backfired through your own subsequent defence of Shah’s measly 1k followers (which is really low for a double winner of the clash of the titans thingy!) If you had simply not mentioned followers it would have all been fine! Live and learn hey?

And “left wing” really! Lol pay closer attention.

You found your kryptonite, don't worry we all have one

I wouldn't say left wing but you do clearly hate the (current) tories so if one wasn't to be paying attention I can see they'd think you're left wing

That’s a fair observation. Just thought Morley was a details guy so would be playing closer attention

Yeah I hated Johnson and Truss govt. All I can see there is self-serving corruption on an epic scale. Sunak is still hmmmm but an improvement over those two sock puppets. Jury still out on SKS for me and some Labour “policies” (do they actually have proper costed policies yet or will that wait for election manifesto) will actually be detrimental to me and my family do hmmmm!"

What was truss's self serving corruption sorry?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"It's merely an account to discuss trading in crypto, politics, economics.

Didnt want to discuss the predictions?

Tell us your predictions and explain your economic model.

Could I just go straight to Briefings for Britain and read their papers? Although they don't really make predictions, they just complain about other people's...

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I have told you my predictions above.

Did you also miss finger in the air?

You not able to read tonight?

I seem to remember you just saying that the IMF was wrong about the UK going into recession. As other organisations also did. No prediction for an actual figure.

So after the IMF have said 0.4% UK GDP growth, your saying 0.6% based on your finger? Do you think anybody else consistently makes better economic predictions than the IMF?

Prediction error of how much?

Are the IMF predictions now "correct"?

I said tbe imf was laughable and their production in 2022 was closer to the truth because after q1 they'd need 4 quarters of -0.4 decline. To hit their new estimations.

There are certainly people who make better predictions. Infact there's actually a tracker for it on things such as inflation and gdp. Where you can measure your predictions vs other economists and think tanks etc.

Ghe inf new prediction is certainly closer to what is realistically likely.

The IMF changed their prediction due to some economic "complexities" created by the brief tenure of one of our more recent Prime Ministers. Quite chaotic on September, I believe, so unable to be included in their October figures. Quite probably overcompensated for and the markets reacting better than was guessed.

Your finger thought that Truss' economic plans were genius, I believe. So did Professor Gudgen.

I asked about consistently better economic predictions than the IMF. Particularly for recessions. You seem to know, so thought you might be able to say.

What is the closest consistent prediction compared to that of the IMF?

On the forum I suggested you follow there's a Chao called dilip shah.i suggest you follow him. As he's one of the more reliable forecasters.

I just looked at this.

The competition gives quarterly predictions, not annual ones.

Dilip Shah Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 0.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.5%

Actual Q4 2021 - Q3 2022

GDP 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% -0.3%

Am I missing something?

Anyway, rather than people on this site who may or may not be good at predicting the economy, what organisations are consistently better than the IMF?

You seem hung up on organisations.

I dont know why. I tend not to listen to organisations. I listen to individual economists.

Like who? I am genuinely interested

Dilip shah. Currently second.

If he is so good and influential, why has got only 1,000 followers on Twitter

You don't need followers to be good.

Difference between his predictions and actual GDP:

-1% -0.2% +1.4% +0.8%

I ask again, is that "good"?

And the year overall...would you like tk assess this years and other years too?-"

His quarterly predictions were way, way out. So, clearly, if they are individual calculations they are not very good. The fact that they average out is luck.

You must know this if you understand any sort of modelling.

I have no inclination to spend any time looking for data on some random individual, but if you want to defend your hero's reputation, go right ahead

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"Again though.

Just easy uk rewriting history.

"The Bank of England’s interest rate is currently 2.25% and is expected to be raised further at the next meeting of decision makers in November.

This is set to take its toll next year as consumers cut back on spending and businesses slow down investments, resulting in slower growth, the IMF said.

The body noted that its forecast was prepared before the Government unveiled its mini-budget which set out sweeping tax cuts including on stamp duty and income tax.

It said: “The fiscal package is expected to lift growth somewhat above the forecast in the near term, while complicating the fight against inflation.” "

Is one year considered "the near term"? One quarter?

Angels dancing on the head of a pin?

They said short term GDP increase, more money, therefore more inflation, therefore higher interest rates the purpose of which is to contract the economy.

Sugar high then payback.

“Without fiscal contraction elsewhere, and with tight supply, unfunded government spending increases or tax cuts will only push inflation up further and make monetary policymakers’ jobs harder,”

“Fiscal policy should not work at cross-purpose with monetary authorities’ efforts to bring down inflation,”

“Doing so will only prolong inflation and could cause serious financial instability, as recent events illustrated.”

“As storm clouds gather, policymakers need to keep a steady hand.

“Increasing price pressures remain the most immediate threat to current and future prosperity by squeezing real incomes and undermining macroeconomic stability.”

“Fiscal policy can help economies adapt to a more volatile environment by investing in productive capacity: human capital, digitalization, green energy, and supply chain diversification,” he said. “Expanding these can make economies more resilient to future crises. Unfortunately, these important principles are not always guiding policy right now.”

This was all said in October, not in January when the next projection was released and the UK had gone through exchange rate and Gilts chaos.

So no, it doesn't mean that they adjusted their forecasts down that sharply because of Truss' unfunded spending increases.

However, you could take a sentence in isolation and read what you wish into it.

So instead of floudnering like tbe above.

Sometimes it's better and more adult to jsut admit you made your stance up.

The I f didn't say the Truss budget would lead to lower growth

For someone who claims to know so much about economics, you seem to be struggling about what the consequences of higher inflation and interest rates are which were the consequences which were warned of after the short term growth due to there being a little more cash available to rich people to "trickle down" to the rest.

However, you know best.

You said the imf said original truss budget would lead tomlower growth.

Simple question. Did they say that? Yes or no?

They did say that it would increase growth "in the near term".

They also said on the same sentence: "while complicating the fight against inflation".

So, what does worse inflation do to growth? Does it increase GDP?

I quoted you all the other reasons that they said this budget would be bad for the economy.

However, you want to talk incessantly about one sentence as if that's the only meaningful thing.

Micro victory. Bravo. Slow clap

Yes it would increase growth..

The never said it would decrease.growth.

That's what you claimed. What you claimed was not true.

Thanks for admitting you lied."

That's a lot of juvenile pedantry to cram I to a few lines

There was one line about a short-term increase in GDP and then an awful lot about the problems.

What effect does increased inflation have on interest rates and growth?

Today, we are literally experiencing the consequences of it. Gilt yields have risen making Government borrowing higher and interests rates have gone up for borrowers taking money out of the economy.

The IMF don't need to spell out what that means unless You don't understand the most basic economics or you are studiously trying to avoid it.

So desperate to try to "win". No wonder the obfuscation of Rees-Mogg and Johnson and co mark them out as such heroes to you. You must think it's clever like a first year undergraduate desperate to impress.

With 10k Twitter followers...

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *I TwoCouple
over a year ago

PDI 12-26th Nov 24

Incredibly one of the contributors to this topic has actually made a post related to swinging in this swingers forum lol

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"*Your questions*

While he and I have locked horns on some subjects, credit where it is due, in some areas Morley knows his stuff (although I wonder why he burns calories posting his insight on a swinger forum rather than some more appropriate economics forum or blog but hey ho).

But saying that, how much of what he has posted is prediction/forecasting and how much is hindsight? And how much is his own thinking vs taken from Briefings for Britain?

Keen to see Morley put his credentials to the test and make an economic forecast for the next 3, 6, 12 mths so we can see how well he does. "

*My reply*

I do both. I have a twitter account which significant followers amount where we talk economics and politics.

I expect growth for the uk for all quarters.

The only thing stopping larger growth will be unions striking. However in tbe summer they tend not to strike. So should see very good 3rd quarter growth. Usually they strike in winter so winter maybe see no growth.

0.6% growth is my target.

I also mentioned previously.inflstion around October to go down to 4%

You asked about why I come on here and not other forums.I replied I do both amd have a significant following

Your follow up query was asking me to forecast.

I give you a forecast I expect growth in all 4 quarters and the uk would grow in the year.( as I had previously forecasted)

I am sorry. But you have clearly misread or interpreted what I replied in a way no other person would have.

You asked what a significant following was.

I answered 10k

"

So you have no economic credentials.

Dilip Shah is awarded the title of best economic forecaster in a club competition. Perhaps his predictions are used by Governments and financial organisations and companies that risk their own money and ours? I fancy not though.

Regardless I asked for what organisation made better predictions than the IMF. What organisation does?

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *winga2Man
over a year ago

Stranraer

As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

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By *L RogueMan
over a year ago

London


"Seemingly not.

What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Hopefully this puts and end to dolts believing forecasts.

You have no qualifications?? I will stick to believing the IMF over some bloke on here

This ‘I know better’ attitude is one of the key political changes in the past 20 years. Social media fuels it as well. ‘We’ve had enough of experts’ and actual analysis being replaced by google warriors.

There’s no going back now."

This!

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By *ellhungvweMan
over a year ago

Cheltenham


"Seemingly not.

What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Hopefully this puts and end to dolts believing forecasts.

You have no qualifications?? I will stick to believing the IMF over some bloke on here "

I have two economics degrees and the only thing they have taught me is that pretty much no one knows anything.

Forecasts from any governmental or supra-national organisation, like the IMF, are pretty much garbage - not one of those forecasts has consistently predicted anything close to a meaningful forecast and all of them have essentially failed to predict every single major economic turning point since the Second World War.

That is not to say that Joe or Joanna Bloggs in the street will do any better - although there is reasonable evidence to suggest that the best prediction of near term growth is whatever is currently happening which is what the public tend to predict.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"Seemingly not.

What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Hopefully this puts and end to dolts believing forecasts.

You have no qualifications?? I will stick to believing the IMF over some bloke on here

I have two economics degrees and the only thing they have taught me is that pretty much no one knows anything.

Forecasts from any governmental or supra-national organisation, like the IMF, are pretty much garbage - not one of those forecasts has consistently predicted anything close to a meaningful forecast and all of them have essentially failed to predict every single major economic turning point since the Second World War.

That is not to say that Joe or Joanna Bloggs in the street will do any better - although there is reasonable evidence to suggest that the best prediction of near term growth is whatever is currently happening which is what the public tend to predict. "

Isn't it the stripper indicator one of the best?

When the clubs take home is weaker it means less business, less meetings, less expenses allowed etc

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *ellhungvweMan
over a year ago

Cheltenham


"Seemingly not.

What are your qualifications?

Doesn't matter when I cab point my finger in the air better than them.

Hopefully this puts and end to dolts believing forecasts.

You have no qualifications?? I will stick to believing the IMF over some bloke on here

I have two economics degrees and the only thing they have taught me is that pretty much no one knows anything.

Forecasts from any governmental or supra-national organisation, like the IMF, are pretty much garbage - not one of those forecasts has consistently predicted anything close to a meaningful forecast and all of them have essentially failed to predict every single major economic turning point since the Second World War.

That is not to say that Joe or Joanna Bloggs in the street will do any better - although there is reasonable evidence to suggest that the best prediction of near term growth is whatever is currently happening which is what the public tend to predict.

Isn't it the stripper indicator one of the best?

When the clubs take home is weaker it means less business, less meetings, less expenses allowed etc "

You can come up with any correlation you want but it won’t have long term predictive power.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

"

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me."

Nobody told you to believe the IMF.

You were told their accuracy and those of other organisations are reasonably good. Within 1%. That is except for recessions.

You have made one prediction once so no, I'm not going to believe you. Certainly not anymore than any organisation with a long history to look at.

Go for a few more years and we'll see how good you are beyond a random guess.

You still don't seem to understand what the consequences of high inflation is in an economy...

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By *idnight RamblerMan
over a year ago

Pershore

I'm just surprised the government doesn't use FAB for all their economic forecasts.

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By *ellhungvweMan
over a year ago

Cheltenham


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me.

Nobody told you to believe the IMF.

You were told their accuracy and those of other organisations are reasonably good. Within 1%. That is except for recessions.

You have made one prediction once so no, I'm not going to believe you. Certainly not anymore than any organisation with a long history to look at.

Go for a few more years and we'll see how good you are beyond a random guess.

You still don't seem to understand what the consequences of high inflation is in an economy..."

Can you give me the citations for the “1% accuracy” of the IMF? That number is categorically wrong - there is _absolutely_ no way anyone (institution or human) has economic predictive power that good.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me.

Nobody told you to believe the IMF.

You were told their accuracy and those of other organisations are reasonably good. Within 1%. That is except for recessions.

You have made one prediction once so no, I'm not going to believe you. Certainly not anymore than any organisation with a long history to look at.

Go for a few more years and we'll see how good you are beyond a random guess.

You still don't seem to understand what the consequences of high inflation is in an economy..."

Just changing the history of this forum now. A particular few in here saidni was talking bollocks and they'd believe the imf over me.

The imf isn't close to 1% out.

1% out I am guessing you mean from -0 6% decline to 0.6% growth ? 1% out is NOT a good forecast quite frankly 1% out is horrific especially when changing from decline to growth.

Again I donunderstand inflation.

Again though as you admitted finally. The IMF never said liz truss budget would lead tonless growth it talked about inflation and interest rates.

You're conflating 2 issues.

Nothing unusual there though I guess.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me.

Nobody told you to believe the IMF.

You were told their accuracy and those of other organisations are reasonably good. Within 1%. That is except for recessions.

You have made one prediction once so no, I'm not going to believe you. Certainly not anymore than any organisation with a long history to look at.

Go for a few more years and we'll see how good you are beyond a random guess.

You still don't seem to understand what the consequences of high inflation is in an economy...

Can you give me the citations for the “1% accuracy” of the IMF? That number is categorically wrong - there is _absolutely_ no way anyone (institution or human) has economic predictive power that good. "

This is from another thread on this:

On average, forecasts are within 0.6% in growth years and 1.8% in contraction years.

Results are not consistent by any organisation.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable-only-in-the-short-term?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18156330227&ppcadID=&utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&gclid=CjwKCAjwrdmhBhBBEiwA4Hx5g3j63h0xapC9lOavEotNrRdNRVZ6V8IMhqmHkFFnn5AVe7HYyWqzNxoCosUQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Funnily enough, the IMF seems to think that it's within 1.5% with its growth forecasts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63588631

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me.

Nobody told you to believe the IMF.

You were told their accuracy and those of other organisations are reasonably good. Within 1%. That is except for recessions.

You have made one prediction once so no, I'm not going to believe you. Certainly not anymore than any organisation with a long history to look at.

Go for a few more years and we'll see how good you are beyond a random guess.

You still don't seem to understand what the consequences of high inflation is in an economy...

Just changing the history of this forum now. A particular few in here saidni was talking bollocks and they'd believe the imf over me.

The imf isn't close to 1% out.

1% out I am guessing you mean from -0 6% decline to 0.6% growth ? 1% out is NOT a good forecast quite frankly 1% out is horrific especially when changing from decline to growth.

Again I donunderstand inflation.

Again though as you admitted finally. The IMF never said liz truss budget would lead tonless growth it talked about inflation and interest rates.

You're conflating 2 issues.

Nothing unusual there though I guess.

"

I didn't "admit" any such thing. You are once again desperate to make one sentence out of a cascade of criticism a "victory".

What are the consequences of high inflation and the effect on interest rates on GDP?

The IMF and all of economics "conflates" these two issues because they are fundamentally connected.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me.

Nobody told you to believe the IMF.

You were told their accuracy and those of other organisations are reasonably good. Within 1%. That is except for recessions.

You have made one prediction once so no, I'm not going to believe you. Certainly not anymore than any organisation with a long history to look at.

Go for a few more years and we'll see how good you are beyond a random guess.

You still don't seem to understand what the consequences of high inflation is in an economy...

Can you give me the citations for the “1% accuracy” of the IMF? That number is categorically wrong - there is _absolutely_ no way anyone (institution or human) has economic predictive power that good.

This is from another thread on this:

On average, forecasts are within 0.6% in growth years and 1.8% in contraction years.

Results are not consistent by any organisation.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable-only-in-the-short-term?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18156330227&ppcadID=&utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&gclid=CjwKCAjwrdmhBhBBEiwA4Hx5g3j63h0xapC9lOavEotNrRdNRVZ6V8IMhqmHkFFnn5AVe7HYyWqzNxoCosUQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Funnily enough, the IMF seems to think that it's within 1.5% with its growth forecasts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63588631"

I am not sure what your obr link is for.

But your ecpnomist article stipulates my.poi t I believe averaging 0.8% out including years of contraction. So if the IMF predict -0.6% decline . Then change this is 4 months to a 0.4% growth. They are out by the average ( I clouding recessions by .2% points

But wait.

The time difference between forecasts was only 4 months and when forecasts are released 4 months in advance of final results it should only be 0.4% out. Again including recessions

You've sort of proven my point that 0.8% swing after 4 months is absolutely wild. And forecasters having that kind of difference would be shocked.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

As I said. 1% out is horrific.

There's no recession for the uk. There never looked like one.

Which is why I said there wouldn't be one several weeks ago. And you mocked me.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds

Working paper on the Swiss analysis of annual forecasts

A rule of thumb for confidence

intervals

Assuming a normal distribution of the forecast

errors, 50% of forecast errors are between +/–0.675

standard deviations and 80% are between +/–1.28

standard deviations. From this, a simple rule of

thumb for conveying the uncertainty related to fore-

casts can be derived.

 (closed, thread got too big)

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By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me.

Nobody told you to believe the IMF.

You were told their accuracy and those of other organisations are reasonably good. Within 1%. That is except for recessions.

You have made one prediction once so no, I'm not going to believe you. Certainly not anymore than any organisation with a long history to look at.

Go for a few more years and we'll see how good you are beyond a random guess.

You still don't seem to understand what the consequences of high inflation is in an economy...

Can you give me the citations for the “1% accuracy” of the IMF? That number is categorically wrong - there is _absolutely_ no way anyone (institution or human) has economic predictive power that good.

This is from another thread on this:

On average, forecasts are within 0.6% in growth years and 1.8% in contraction years.

Results are not consistent by any organisation.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable-only-in-the-short-term?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18156330227&ppcadID=&utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&gclid=CjwKCAjwrdmhBhBBEiwA4Hx5g3j63h0xapC9lOavEotNrRdNRVZ6V8IMhqmHkFFnn5AVe7HYyWqzNxoCosUQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Funnily enough, the IMF seems to think that it's within 1.5% with its growth forecasts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63588631

I am not sure what your obr link is for.

But your ecpnomist article stipulates my.poi t I believe averaging 0.8% out including years of contraction. So if the IMF predict -0.6% decline . Then change this is 4 months to a 0.4% growth. They are out by the average ( I clouding recessions by .2% points

But wait.

The time difference between forecasts was only 4 months and when forecasts are released 4 months in advance of final results it should only be 0.4% out. Again including recessions

You've sort of proven my point that 0.8% swing after 4 months is absolutely wild. And forecasters having that kind of difference would be shocked.

"

0.8% for predictions one year out.

0.4% for a 4 month prediction.

Fundamentally in this and many, many other studies recessions are almost always not predicted correctly by anyone ever. That was the main point being made.

Your only point is don't believe any IMF predictions ever because of what has happened over the most recent prediction for the UK in a case of extreme economic uncertainty with consequences of Brexit, Covid and the Truss/Kwarteng clown show plus a war in Ukraine and tension with China.

The other clear point is that different organisations vary in their accuracy from year to year so you have to view them over time.

I will still take their predictions over yours and your belief that 1% is "horrendous" under these circumstances.

Especially as you remain unable to explain the consequences of high inflation on GDP.

You have made a "prediction" once that there would be no recession when the country is bumping along at 0%. That's 50:50. You are not the genius that you think you are not are the IMF the dunces that you claim that they are.

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 

By *orleyman OP   Man
over a year ago

Leeds


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me.

Nobody told you to believe the IMF.

You were told their accuracy and those of other organisations are reasonably good. Within 1%. That is except for recessions.

You have made one prediction once so no, I'm not going to believe you. Certainly not anymore than any organisation with a long history to look at.

Go for a few more years and we'll see how good you are beyond a random guess.

You still don't seem to understand what the consequences of high inflation is in an economy...

Can you give me the citations for the “1% accuracy” of the IMF? That number is categorically wrong - there is _absolutely_ no way anyone (institution or human) has economic predictive power that good.

This is from another thread on this:

On average, forecasts are within 0.6% in growth years and 1.8% in contraction years.

Results are not consistent by any organisation.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable-only-in-the-short-term?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18156330227&ppcadID=&utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&gclid=CjwKCAjwrdmhBhBBEiwA4Hx5g3j63h0xapC9lOavEotNrRdNRVZ6V8IMhqmHkFFnn5AVe7HYyWqzNxoCosUQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Funnily enough, the IMF seems to think that it's within 1.5% with its growth forecasts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63588631

I am not sure what your obr link is for.

But your ecpnomist article stipulates my.poi t I believe averaging 0.8% out including years of contraction. So if the IMF predict -0.6% decline . Then change this is 4 months to a 0.4% growth. They are out by the average ( I clouding recessions by .2% points

But wait.

The time difference between forecasts was only 4 months and when forecasts are released 4 months in advance of final results it should only be 0.4% out. Again including recessions

You've sort of proven my point that 0.8% swing after 4 months is absolutely wild. And forecasters having that kind of difference would be shocked.

0.8% for predictions one year out.

0.4% for a 4 month prediction.

Fundamentally in this and many, many other studies recessions are almost always not predicted correctly by anyone ever. That was the main point being made.

Your only point is don't believe any IMF predictions ever because of what has happened over the most recent prediction for the UK in a case of extreme economic uncertainty with consequences of Brexit, Covid and the Truss/Kwarteng clown show plus a war in Ukraine and tension with China.

The other clear point is that different organisations vary in their accuracy from year to year so you have to view them over time.

I will still take their predictions over yours and your belief that 1% is "horrendous" under these circumstances.

Especially as you remain unable to explain the consequences of high inflation on GDP.

You have made a "prediction" once that there would be no recession when the country is bumping along at 0%. That's 50:50. You are not the genius that you think you are not are the IMF the dunces that you claim that they are."

You take whoever predictio s you want easy uk.

I have proven my point

 (closed, thread got too big)

Reply privately
 
 

By *asyukMan
over a year ago

West London


"As with all " I told you so " posts

Hindsight is a wonderful thing and it's rare these people post when they get it wrong.

No hindsight.

I made a prediction I other threads.

I said the uk wouldn't decline this year.

I was told people should believe the IMF over me.

The IMF has not changed its tune to agree with me.

Nobody told you to believe the IMF.

You were told their accuracy and those of other organisations are reasonably good. Within 1%. That is except for recessions.

You have made one prediction once so no, I'm not going to believe you. Certainly not anymore than any organisation with a long history to look at.

Go for a few more years and we'll see how good you are beyond a random guess.

You still don't seem to understand what the consequences of high inflation is in an economy...

Can you give me the citations for the “1% accuracy” of the IMF? That number is categorically wrong - there is _absolutely_ no way anyone (institution or human) has economic predictive power that good.

This is from another thread on this:

On average, forecasts are within 0.6% in growth years and 1.8% in contraction years.

Results are not consistent by any organisation.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable-only-in-the-short-term?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18156330227&ppcadID=&utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&gclid=CjwKCAjwrdmhBhBBEiwA4Hx5g3j63h0xapC9lOavEotNrRdNRVZ6V8IMhqmHkFFnn5AVe7HYyWqzNxoCosUQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds

Funnily enough, the IMF seems to think that it's within 1.5% with its growth forecasts.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63588631

I am not sure what your obr link is for.

But your ecpnomist article stipulates my.poi t I believe averaging 0.8% out including years of contraction. So if the IMF predict -0.6% decline . Then change this is 4 months to a 0.4% growth. They are out by the average ( I clouding recessions by .2% points

But wait.

The time difference between forecasts was only 4 months and when forecasts are released 4 months in advance of final results it should only be 0.4% out. Again including recessions

You've sort of proven my point that 0.8% swing after 4 months is absolutely wild. And forecasters having that kind of difference would be shocked.

0.8% for predictions one year out.

0.4% for a 4 month prediction.

Fundamentally in this and many, many other studies recessions are almost always not predicted correctly by anyone ever. That was the main point being made.

Your only point is don't believe any IMF predictions ever because of what has happened over the most recent prediction for the UK in a case of extreme economic uncertainty with consequences of Brexit, Covid and the Truss/Kwarteng clown show plus a war in Ukraine and tension with China.

The other clear point is that different organisations vary in their accuracy from year to year so you have to view them over time.

I will still take their predictions over yours and your belief that 1% is "horrendous" under these circumstances.

Especially as you remain unable to explain the consequences of high inflation on GDP.

You have made a "prediction" once that there would be no recession when the country is bumping along at 0%. That's 50:50. You are not the genius that you think you are not are the IMF the dunces that you claim that they are.

You take whoever predictio s you want easy uk.

I have proven my point "

If you think that you have "proven" something with one vague "prediction" then you have quite an inflated view of yourself.

You haven't grasped that you certifying your own brilliance carries no weight.

Yes, I will choose to the believe, or at least take into account, the predictions of the IMF and most other organisations over multiple years well above you (and Briefings for Britain and Dilip Shah).

 (closed, thread got too big)

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