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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1%" ????  | |||
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"The IMF consistently under estimate U.K. gdp growth. You would expect such forecasts to be over and under in equal measure. Can anyone remember the IMF forecasting growth higher than actual U.K. growth?" Why would they do that ?? | |||
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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1%" Let me guess, they have have got their figures wring? | |||
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"USA????: 1.4% Germany????: 0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.6% Spain????: 1.1% Japan????: 1.8% UK????: -0.6% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 6.1% Russia????: 0.3% Brazil????: 1.2% Mexico????: 1.7% KSA????: 2 6% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 1.2%" What’s with the double post and quadruple question marks? | |||
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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1% Let me guess, they have have got their figures wring? "Let me guess You're going to give sarcastic and facetious replies all thread because you spout things you have no comprehension of and you lie constantly about having read the background details and get caught out....about right? | |||
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"USA????: 1.4% Germany????: 0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.6% Spain????: 1.1% Japan????: 1.8% UK????: -0.6% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 6.1% Russia????: 0.3% Brazil????: 1.2% Mexico????: 1.7% KSA????: 2 6% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 1.2% What’s with the double post and quadruple question marks?" Copy pasting from imf twitter. | |||
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"Some significant changes here. Again think they underestimate uk over estimate Germany. France may struggle with the strikes. Uk may pick up considerably if equivalence granted on completely of Windsor framework. RSA...quite the difference. How did they get it so wrong? " You are wasted on here. Those accountancy qualifications could be put to better use explaining to the IMF, OBR, BoE etc how they are all wrong and show them what they need to do to get things right. | |||
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"Some significant changes here. Again think they underestimate uk over estimate Germany. France may struggle with the strikes. Uk may pick up considerably if equivalence granted on completely of Windsor framework. RSA...quite the difference. How did they get it so wrong? You are wasted on here. Those accountancy qualifications could be put to better use explaining to the IMF, OBR, BoE etc how they are all wrong and show them what they need to do to get things right." Did eco omicron at A level. Enjoyed it. And still do. Just doesn't pay so well. Very few of my frie ds who did it at uni went on to work in economics. Most in finance. I simply still enjoy reading it I find it funny that there's a gullibility of organisations and people that the IMF BofE worldbank etc can get a long term forecast kf growth right for 15 years. Yet they'll be out by several percentage points in 6 months of their own forecasting. | |||
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"Some significant changes here. Again think they underestimate uk over estimate Germany. France may struggle with the strikes. Uk may pick up considerably if equivalence granted on completely of Windsor framework. RSA...quite the difference. How did they get it so wrong? You are wasted on here. Those accountancy qualifications could be put to better use explaining to the IMF, OBR, BoE etc how they are all wrong and show them what they need to do to get things right. Did eco omicron at A level. Enjoyed it. And still do. Just doesn't pay so well. Very few of my frie ds who did it at uni went on to work in economics. Most in finance. I simply still enjoy reading it I find it funny that there's a gullibility of organisations and people that the IMF BofE worldbank etc can get a long term forecast kf growth right for 15 years. Yet they'll be out by several percentage points in 6 months of their own forecasting. " What is the tolerance in their forecasting or is it a case of we were wrong or right? This type of forecasting looks like a candidate for AI, unless it already is? | |||
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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1% Let me guess, they have have got their figures wring?
Let me guess
You're going to give sarcastic and facetious replies all thread because you spout things you have no comprehension of and you lie constantly about having read the background details and get caught out....about right? "The IMF know more about worldwide economics than you do, you’re embarrassing yourself, again | |||
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"Some significant changes here. Again think they underestimate uk over estimate Germany. France may struggle with the strikes. Uk may pick up considerably if equivalence granted on completely of Windsor framework. RSA...quite the difference. How did they get it so wrong? You are wasted on here. Those accountancy qualifications could be put to better use explaining to the IMF, OBR, BoE etc how they are all wrong and show them what they need to do to get things right."  | |||
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"Some significant changes here. Again think they underestimate uk over estimate Germany. France may struggle with the strikes. Uk may pick up considerably if equivalence granted on completely of Windsor framework. RSA...quite the difference. How did they get it so wrong? You are wasted on here. Those accountancy qualifications could be put to better use explaining to the IMF, OBR, BoE etc how they are all wrong and show them what they need to do to get things right. Did eco omicron at A level. Enjoyed it. And still do. Just doesn't pay so well. Very few of my frie ds who did it at uni went on to work in economics. Most in finance. I simply still enjoy reading it I find it funny that there's a gullibility of organisations and people that the IMF BofE worldbank etc can get a long term forecast kf growth right for 15 years. Yet they'll be out by several percentage points in 6 months of their own forecasting. What is the tolerance in their forecasting or is it a case of we were wrong or right? This type of forecasting looks like a candidate for AI, unless it already is? " I've never dug that deep to be honest. I personally think its finger in the air stuff. Getting it wrong by 0.3% is pretty significant. I still think tbe uk economy will grow this year and not recede. | |||
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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1% Let me guess, they have have got their figures wring?
Let me guess
You're going to give sarcastic and facetious replies all thread because you spout things you have no comprehension of and you lie constantly about having read the background details and get caught out....about right?
The IMF know more about worldwide economics than you do, you’re embarrassing yourself, again "As I say you're nothing but sarcasm and Insults. | |||
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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1% Let me guess, they have have got their figures wring?
Let me guess
You're going to give sarcastic and facetious replies all thread because you spout things you have no comprehension of and you lie constantly about having read the background details and get caught out....about right?
The IMF know more about worldwide economics than you do, you’re embarrassing yourself, again
As I say you're nothing but sarcasm and Insults.
"Just stating facts, you are a man on a swinging site with an A level v the IMF | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. " What are your qualifications? | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made?" The OP has an a level in economics and doesn’t believe the forecast presented by the IMF, who employ 2,400 experts and have a $1.2 billion budget | |||
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"a mathematics degree, so I have a grasp of statistics. I also find it statistically interesting that IMF chiefs are more likely to face criminal charges than the population generally. " Ah, so you know more about worldwide economics than the IMF? Not sure what your second point is about | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? The OP has an a level in economics and doesn’t believe the forecast presented by the IMF, who employ 2,400 experts and have a $1.2 billion budget "Does the IMF have a reputation for getting these predictions right? Or do they simply change them to follow what's actually happening...much like the OBR? | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made?" Keeping people up to date on the predictions | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? The OP has an a level in economics and doesn’t believe the forecast presented by the IMF, who employ 2,400 experts and have a $1.2 billion budget
Does the IMF have a reputation for getting these predictions right? Or do they simply change them to follow what's actually happening...much like the OBR?"They chop and change them without any significant change to their modelling when they get them significantly wrong seemingly. | |||
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"First Post it newest release. 2nd post is October." Assuming you have the minus sign in the correct column then it shows while the UK has improved in the latest figures, Germany has gone backwards | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions" Right. But why start a thread about it? | |||
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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1%" What point are you making? How about you make your forecast for the next quarter and for next year and adjust them with updates as you go? Carry on for twenty years and we'll see where you come out. Perhaps Rees-Mogg and some of the other critics could do the same? Alternatively we could just say it will all be fine like Truss and Kwatwng did and skip even trying to make a prediction? | |||
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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1% What point are you making? How about you make your forecast for the next quarter and for next year and adjust them with updates as you go? Carry on for twenty years and we'll see where you come out. Perhaps Rees-Mogg and some of the other critics could do the same? Alternatively we could just say it will all be fine like Truss and Kwatwng did and skip even trying to make a prediction?" Or perhaps some of the labour party could make some predictions? | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions Right. But why start a thread about it?" To highlight the changes. People seem to like forecasts on here. | |||
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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1% What point are you making? How about you make your forecast for the next quarter and for next year and adjust them with updates as you go? Carry on for twenty years and we'll see where you come out. Perhaps Rees-Mogg and some of the other critics could do the same? Alternatively we could just say it will all be fine like Truss and Kwatwng did and skip even trying to make a prediction?" People seem to like forecasts in here and love by them. I thought I'd highlight the changes I'm 6 months. | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions Right. But why start a thread about it? To highlight the changes. People seem to like forecasts on here." Fair enough. Changing economic forecasts over time seems normal though. Doesn't suggest anything positive or negative about the IMF or anyone else. | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions Right. But why start a thread about it? To highlight the changes. People seem to like forecasts on here. Fair enough. Changing economic forecasts over time seems normal though. Doesn't suggest anything positive or negative about the IMF or anyone else." It's worth keeping an eye on for veracity and legitimacy. As I said. These earw SIGNIFICANT changes inside 6 months. Let alone 15 years. | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions Right. But why start a thread about it? To highlight the changes. People seem to like forecasts on here. Fair enough. Changing economic forecasts over time seems normal though. Doesn't suggest anything positive or negative about the IMF or anyone else. It's worth keeping an eye on for veracity and legitimacy. As I said. These earw SIGNIFICANT changes inside 6 months. Let alone 15 years." -0.3% to -0.6% is a significant change? | |||
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"USA????: 1.6% Germany????: -0.1% France????: 0.7% Italy????: 0.7% Spain????: 1.5% Japan????: 1.3% UK????: -0.3% Canada????: 1.5% China????: 5.2% India????: 5.9% Russia????: 0.7% Brazil????: 0.9% Mexico????: 1.8% KSA????: 3.1% Nigeria????: 3.2% RSA????: 0.1% What point are you making? How about you make your forecast for the next quarter and for next year and adjust them with updates as you go? Carry on for twenty years and we'll see where you come out. Perhaps Rees-Mogg and some of the other critics could do the same? Alternatively we could just say it will all be fine like Truss and Kwatwng did and skip even trying to make a prediction? Or perhaps some of the labour party could make some predictions? " Why would they when all manner of well funded and specialist-resourced organisations already do? | |||
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"That’s like saying, because an individual can’t play the violin they forfeit the right to criticise someone who claims to play the instrument well but in fact is totally out of tune. " What economic forecasts have been "correct" for the same period? What is the definition of "correct" for predicting changes in the global economy? | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions Right. But why start a thread about it? To highlight the changes. People seem to like forecasts on here. Fair enough. Changing economic forecasts over time seems normal though. Doesn't suggest anything positive or negative about the IMF or anyone else. It's worth keeping an eye on for veracity and legitimacy. As I said. These earw SIGNIFICANT changes inside 6 months. Let alone 15 years." What organisations make better predictions? Who would you recommend? | |||
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"Some significant changes here. Again think they underestimate uk over estimate Germany. France may struggle with the strikes. Uk may pick up considerably if equivalence granted on completely of Windsor framework. RSA...quite the difference. How did they get it so wrong? " Oh, your trying to preempt the IMF predictions by claiming that they're "always wrong"
"IMF: UK economy to toy with recession this year – and fall to the bottom of global growth leaderboard"
https://www.cityam.com/imf-uk-economy-to-toy-with-recession-this-year-and-fall-to-the-bottom-of-global-growth-race/
Who's right then? | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well." What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy?" One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'. | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions Right. But why start a thread about it? To highlight the changes. People seem to like forecasts on here. Fair enough. Changing economic forecasts over time seems normal though. Doesn't suggest anything positive or negative about the IMF or anyone else. It's worth keeping an eye on for veracity and legitimacy. As I said. These earw SIGNIFICANT changes inside 6 months. Let alone 15 years. -0.3% to -0.6% is a significant change?" . Yes in 6 mo ths that's a big shift It went from 0.3 % in October 22 to -0.6% in Jan 22 to -0.3% These are all big shifts and point to the modelling being terrible. I think historically the Imf has been wrong by an average of 0.6% per annum. Anything over 0.3% is considered a large margin of error in forecasting next year growth. | |||
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"I never claimed to know more than the IMF. I have just pointed out statistical curiosities. " You stated ‘A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate.’ | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'." Which ones are at "the top end of the table" and how consistently is that the case? The "guy counting trucks" is not predicting how many there will be and how accurate is he on a "not normal" day? | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions Right. But why start a thread about it? To highlight the changes. People seem to like forecasts on here. Fair enough. Changing economic forecasts over time seems normal though. Doesn't suggest anything positive or negative about the IMF or anyone else. It's worth keeping an eye on for veracity and legitimacy. As I said. These earw SIGNIFICANT changes inside 6 months. Let alone 15 years. -0.3% to -0.6% is a significant change?. Yes in 6 mo ths that's a big shift It went from 0.3 % in October 22 to -0.6% in Jan 22 to -0.3% These are all big shifts and point to the modelling being terrible. I think historically the Imf has been wrong by an average of 0.6% per annum. Anything over 0.3% is considered a large margin of error in forecasting next year growth." Who makes better predictions and how consistently? Who considers 0.6% a "large" margin of error? | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. " This is interesting, how many times were the underestimations wrong? | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. This is interesting, how many times were the underestimations wrong? " There's currently a meme doing the rounds ont witter about how badly the imf got it wrong. They hadnt got it right since July 2016 to July 2019. We will leave 2020 as that would be unfair. Since ether they've been abysmal again. | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions Right. But why start a thread about it? To highlight the changes. People seem to like forecasts on here. Fair enough. Changing economic forecasts over time seems normal though. Doesn't suggest anything positive or negative about the IMF or anyone else. It's worth keeping an eye on for veracity and legitimacy. As I said. These earw SIGNIFICANT changes inside 6 months. Let alone 15 years. -0.3% to -0.6% is a significant change?. Yes in 6 mo ths that's a big shift It went from 0.3 % in October 22 to -0.6% in Jan 22 to -0.3% These are all big shifts and point to the modelling being terrible. I think historically the Imf has been wrong by an average of 0.6% per annum. Anything over 0.3% is considered a large margin of error in forecasting next year growth. Who makes better predictions and how consistently? Who considers 0.6% a "large" margin of error?" World bank,oecd, banks themselves imf. Typically IMF works to a margin of error of 10% when doing its quintiles and percentiles | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'. Which ones are at "the top end of the table" and how consistently is that the case? The "guy counting trucks" is not predicting how many there will be and how accurate is he on a "not normal" day?" No.1 was Credit Agricole in 2022. Truck count is over a period. | |||
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"This is a really weird post. The IMF made some predictions, then made some more predictions. What is the point being made? Keeping people up to date on the predictions Right. But why start a thread about it? To highlight the changes. People seem to like forecasts on here. Fair enough. Changing economic forecasts over time seems normal though. Doesn't suggest anything positive or negative about the IMF or anyone else. It's worth keeping an eye on for veracity and legitimacy. As I said. These earw SIGNIFICANT changes inside 6 months. Let alone 15 years. -0.3% to -0.6% is a significant change?. Yes in 6 mo ths that's a big shift It went from 0.3 % in October 22 to -0.6% in Jan 22 to -0.3% These are all big shifts and point to the modelling being terrible. I think historically the Imf has been wrong by an average of 0.6% per annum. Anything over 0.3% is considered a large margin of error in forecasting next year growth. Who makes better predictions and how consistently? Who considers 0.6% a "large" margin of error? World bank,oecd, banks themselves imf. Typically IMF works to a margin of error of 10% when doing its quintiles and percentiles" Oh bless. Off finding your post-justifications again? Does anybody make any prediction consistently less than what you define as a "large" margin? Are you making stuff up to suit your "argument"? On average, forecasts are within 0.6% in growth years and 1.8% in contraction years. Results are not consistent by any organisation. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/12/15/gdp-predictions-are-reliable-only-in-the-short-term?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&ppccampaignID=18156330227&ppcadID=&utm_campaign=a.22brand_pmax&utm_content=conversion.direct-response.anonymous&gclid=CjwKCAjwrdmhBhBBEiwA4Hx5g3j63h0xapC9lOavEotNrRdNRVZ6V8IMhqmHkFFnn5AVe7HYyWqzNxoCosUQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds Funnily enough, the IMF seems to think that it's within 1.5% with its growth forecasts. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63588631 I'm sure you've checked all of this out and found some reliable sources. Who's data should we use? | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'. Which ones are at "the top end of the table" and how consistently is that the case? The "guy counting trucks" is not predicting how many there will be and how accurate is he on a "not normal" day? No.1 was Credit Agricole in 2022. Truck count is over a period." How was Credit Agricole in 1997 and 2001? Exactly, truck count is over a past period and not a forecast... | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. This is interesting, how many times were the underestimations wrong? There's currently a meme doing the rounds ont witter about how badly the imf got it wrong. They hadnt got it right since July 2016 to July 2019. We will leave 2020 as that would be unfair. Since ether they've been abysmal again." To continually get it wrong must have a negative impact on the UK economy, investments impacted, government focus and forecasting etc. The question is how do they do against other countries, equally as bad or better? | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'. Which ones are at "the top end of the table" and how consistently is that the case? The "guy counting trucks" is not predicting how many there will be and how accurate is he on a "not normal" day? No.1 was Credit Agricole in 2022. Truck count is over a period. How was Credit Agricole in 1997 and 2001? Exactly, truck count is over a past period and not a forecast..." Why is that relevant in those years? Yes, you chart each period and analyse the slope. It's called extrapolation. | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. This is interesting, how many times were the underestimations wrong? There's currently a meme doing the rounds ont witter about how badly the imf got it wrong. They hadnt got it right since July 2016 to July 2019. We will leave 2020 as that would be unfair. Since ether they've been abysmal again. To continually get it wrong must have a negative impact on the UK economy, investments impacted, government focus and forecasting etc. The question is how do they do against other countries, equally as bad or better?" There's an entire paper on how wrong they are. I'll see if I can re find it. Typically the uk is a lot worse. And has been since 2008 vs other economies. Continually under estimated. | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'. Which ones are at "the top end of the table" and how consistently is that the case? The "guy counting trucks" is not predicting how many there will be and how accurate is he on a "not normal" day? No.1 was Credit Agricole in 2022. Truck count is over a period. How was Credit Agricole in 1997 and 2001? Exactly, truck count is over a past period and not a forecast... Why is that relevant in those years? Yes, you chart each period and analyse the slope. It's called extrapolation." Because you're talking about one organisation, one year. Does it get it right consistently or was it a one-off? Tell me about extrapolation again, and how that related to consistency... | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. This is interesting, how many times were the underestimations wrong? There's currently a meme doing the rounds ont witter about how badly the imf got it wrong. They hadnt got it right since July 2016 to July 2019. We will leave 2020 as that would be unfair. Since ether they've been abysmal again. To continually get it wrong must have a negative impact on the UK economy, investments impacted, government focus and forecasting etc. The question is how do they do against other countries, equally as bad or better?" This is made up as there is no indication of how the IMFs performance relates to anyone else's. I would imagine that Governments and banks and investment funds are perfectly able to work out for themselves how trustworthy any set of figures that they are going to use. Perhaps they are just incredibly naive? | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. This is interesting, how many times were the underestimations wrong? There's currently a meme doing the rounds ont witter about how badly the imf got it wrong. They hadnt got it right since July 2016 to July 2019. We will leave 2020 as that would be unfair. Since ether they've been abysmal again. To continually get it wrong must have a negative impact on the UK economy, investments impacted, government focus and forecasting etc. The question is how do they do against other countries, equally as bad or better? There's an entire paper on how wrong they are. I'll see if I can re find it. Typically the uk is a lot worse. And has been since 2008 vs other economies. Continually under estimated." Is there? Was it written by Professor Gudgin of Policy Exchange and Briefings for Britain? | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. This is interesting, how many times were the underestimations wrong? There's currently a meme doing the rounds ont witter about how badly the imf got it wrong. They hadnt got it right since July 2016 to July 2019. We will leave 2020 as that would be unfair. Since ether they've been abysmal again. To continually get it wrong must have a negative impact on the UK economy, investments impacted, government focus and forecasting etc. The question is how do they do against other countries, equally as bad or better? This is made up as there is no indication of how the IMFs performance relates to anyone else's. I would imagine that Governments and banks and investment funds are perfectly able to work out for themselves how trustworthy any set of figures that they are going to use. Perhaps they are just incredibly naive?" What's made up? The IMF predict an outcome that will influence decisions and those figures are available for all countries. If Germany is predicted to exceed expectations and grow rapidly would that not attract investment? Having said that I'm not sure we are talking about the same thing.... | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. This is interesting, how many times were the underestimations wrong? There's currently a meme doing the rounds ont witter about how badly the imf got it wrong. They hadnt got it right since July 2016 to July 2019. We will leave 2020 as that would be unfair. Since ether they've been abysmal again. To continually get it wrong must have a negative impact on the UK economy, investments impacted, government focus and forecasting etc. The question is how do they do against other countries, equally as bad or better? This is made up as there is no indication of how the IMFs performance relates to anyone else's. I would imagine that Governments and banks and investment funds are perfectly able to work out for themselves how trustworthy any set of figures that they are going to use. Perhaps they are just incredibly naive? What's made up? The IMF predict an outcome that will influence decisions and those figures are available for all countries. If Germany is predicted to exceed expectations and grow rapidly would that not attract investment? Having said that I'm not sure we are talking about the same thing.... " About how bad the IMF predictions are, only for the UK, or for everyone (as you asked)? Who makes better predictions? Do we just not bother and guess like Truss and Kwateng did? I think my point about Governments and investors not being naive still stands. They are well aware of the errors and caveats. IMF data is not taken note of and respected on a whim. Perhaps the OP will put me right on that? | |||
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"Statistically you would expect the IMF to over-rate the U.K. economy as often as it under-rates it. The fact that since at least 2015, the IMF have only under estimated our economy piques my curiosity. The BofE also predicted that we would now be enduring the deepest and longest recession in a century as recently as Nov 2022. A blind monkey and a dart board would be more accurate. This is interesting, how many times were the underestimations wrong? There's currently a meme doing the rounds ont witter about how badly the imf got it wrong. They hadnt got it right since July 2016 to July 2019. We will leave 2020 as that would be unfair. Since ether they've been abysmal again. To continually get it wrong must have a negative impact on the UK economy, investments impacted, government focus and forecasting etc. The question is how do they do against other countries, equally as bad or better? This is made up as there is no indication of how the IMFs performance relates to anyone else's. I would imagine that Governments and banks and investment funds are perfectly able to work out for themselves how trustworthy any set of figures that they are going to use. Perhaps they are just incredibly naive? What's made up? The IMF predict an outcome that will influence decisions and those figures are available for all countries. If Germany is predicted to exceed expectations and grow rapidly would that not attract investment? Having said that I'm not sure we are talking about the same thing.... About how bad the IMF predictions are, only for the UK, or for everyone (as you asked)? Who makes better predictions? Do we just not bother and guess like Truss and Kwateng did? I think my point about Governments and investors not being naive still stands. They are well aware of the errors and caveats. IMF data is not taken note of and respected on a whim. Perhaps the OP will put me right on that?" My money says he will | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'. Which ones are at "the top end of the table" and how consistently is that the case? The "guy counting trucks" is not predicting how many there will be and how accurate is he on a "not normal" day? No.1 was Credit Agricole in 2022. Truck count is over a period. How was Credit Agricole in 1997 and 2001? Exactly, truck count is over a past period and not a forecast... Why is that relevant in those years? Yes, you chart each period and analyse the slope. It's called extrapolation. Because you're talking about one organisation, one year. Does it get it right consistently or was it a one-off? Tell me about extrapolation again, and how that related to consistency..." Yes, financial institutions consistently outperform governments and quangos in economic forecasts. Extrapolation allows conclusions and predictions to be made using incomplete data. | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'. Which ones are at "the top end of the table" and how consistently is that the case? The "guy counting trucks" is not predicting how many there will be and how accurate is he on a "not normal" day? No.1 was Credit Agricole in 2022. Truck count is over a period. How was Credit Agricole in 1997 and 2001? Exactly, truck count is over a past period and not a forecast... Why is that relevant in those years? Yes, you chart each period and analyse the slope. It's called extrapolation. Because you're talking about one organisation, one year. Does it get it right consistently or was it a one-off? Tell me about extrapolation again, and how that related to consistency... Yes, financial institutions consistently outperform governments and quangos in economic forecasts. Extrapolation allows conclusions and predictions to be made using incomplete data. " Has Credit Agricole done so? What's its average prediction error compared to the IMF? So, how does extrapolation work for the IMF relative to Credit Agricole? | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'. Which ones are at "the top end of the table" and how consistently is that the case? The "guy counting trucks" is not predicting how many there will be and how accurate is he on a "not normal" day? No.1 was Credit Agricole in 2022. Truck count is over a period. How was Credit Agricole in 1997 and 2001? Exactly, truck count is over a past period and not a forecast... Why is that relevant in those years? Yes, you chart each period and analyse the slope. It's called extrapolation. Because you're talking about one organisation, one year. Does it get it right consistently or was it a one-off? Tell me about extrapolation again, and how that related to consistency... Yes, financial institutions consistently outperform governments and quangos in economic forecasts. Extrapolation allows conclusions and predictions to be made using incomplete data. " This is Credit Agricole's current view of the UK: "Our scenario starting in Q3-2022 includes a four-quarter recession due to the ongoing purchasing power crisis, past and future tightening, monetary and financial conditions, and the government’s fiscal turnaround. However, the cumulative decline in GDP in our scenario is relatively contained, at -1.3% between Q3-2022 and Q2-2023, driven by a 2.7% decrease in private consumption, lower than what the drop in real disposable income alone would suggest. Our annual average growth forecast for 2023 has been revised downwards (to -0.8% versus -0.2% at the beginning of October). In 2024, growth is forecast to return to positive at +1.1%, below potential." How's that compared to the IMF? | |||
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"The IMF has a poor record of forecasts, and is continually adjusting them. I suspect the added complexities of Brexit place the UK outside it's forecasting model. The most remarkable thing is how robust the UK economy has been throughout Brexit, Covid and Ukraine. Still strong £ and FTSE performing well. What organisation has a "good" record? What is your definition of good for predicting changes in the entire global economy? One or other of the financial institutions usually top the end-of-year forecast table. For what it's worth, the guy who counts trucks passing over the Severn Bridge is more accurate in economic forecasting than the 'experts'. Which ones are at "the top end of the table" and how consistently is that the case? The "guy counting trucks" is not predicting how many there will be and how accurate is he on a "not normal" day? No.1 was Credit Agricole in 2022. Truck count is over a period. How was Credit Agricole in 1997 and 2001? Exactly, truck count is over a past period and not a forecast... Why is that relevant in those years? Yes, you chart each period and analyse the slope. It's called extrapolation. Because you're talking about one organisation, one year. Does it get it right consistently or was it a one-off? Tell me about extrapolation again, and how that related to consistency... Yes, financial institutions consistently outperform governments and quangos in economic forecasts. Extrapolation allows conclusions and predictions to be made using incomplete data. This is Credit Agricole's current view of the UK: "Our scenario starting in Q3-2022 includes a four-quarter recession due to the ongoing purchasing power crisis, past and future tightening, monetary and financial conditions, and the government’s fiscal turnaround. However, the cumulative decline in GDP in our scenario is relatively contained, at -1.3% between Q3-2022 and Q2-2023, driven by a 2.7% decrease in private consumption, lower than what the drop in real disposable income alone would suggest. Our annual average growth forecast for 2023 has been revised downwards (to -0.8% versus -0.2% at the beginning of October). In 2024, growth is forecast to return to positive at +1.1%, below potential." How's that compared to the IMF?" You tell us since you seem to have the answers | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas." So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade." Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop." That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016" It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about?" Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain?" I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. " I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it. | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it." If only you were the chancellor...still, everyone has an opinion | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain?" Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong. | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it. If only you were the chancellor...still, everyone has an opinion " What is your opinion on the gap in national wealth growing between the UK and Germany? Why are you upset with me about it? | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it. If only you were the chancellor...still, everyone has an opinion What is your opinion on the gap in national wealth growing between the UK and Germany? Why are you upset with me about it?" I'm not upset with you at all. I don't understand why you seem to spend your waking hours typing labour party views on here. Surely you have better things to do? | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong."Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015. It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor. You can look at the graph. If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like. I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like. | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it. If only you were the chancellor...still, everyone has an opinion What is your opinion on the gap in national wealth growing between the UK and Germany? Why are you upset with me about it? I'm not upset with you at all. I don't understand why you seem to spend your waking hours typing labour party views on here. Surely you have better things to do?" You think that I support the Labour party because I do not support this incompetent government?
Are GDP figures from the World Bank a "Labour" party view? | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it. If only you were the chancellor...still, everyone has an opinion What is your opinion on the gap in national wealth growing between the UK and Germany? Why are you upset with me about it? I'm not upset with you at all. I don't understand why you seem to spend your waking hours typing labour party views on here. Surely you have better things to do? You think that I support the Labour party because I do not support this incompetent government?
Are GDP figures from the World Bank a "Labour" party view?"I think you support the labour party on the basis of the posts I have read... simple question is, do you? | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it. If only you were the chancellor...still, everyone has an opinion What is your opinion on the gap in national wealth growing between the UK and Germany? Why are you upset with me about it? I'm not upset with you at all. I don't understand why you seem to spend your waking hours typing labour party views on here. Surely you have better things to do? You think that I support the Labour party because I do not support this incompetent government?
Are GDP figures from the World Bank a "Labour" party view?
I think you support the labour party on the basis of the posts I have read... simple question is, do you?"Not supporting the Conservative party on a large number of policies does not mean that I support the Labour party. That's not a very considered opinion. | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data?" There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period. | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it. If only you were the chancellor...still, everyone has an opinion What is your opinion on the gap in national wealth growing between the UK and Germany? Why are you upset with me about it? I'm not upset with you at all. I don't understand why you seem to spend your waking hours typing labour party views on here. Surely you have better things to do? You think that I support the Labour party because I do not support this incompetent government?
Are GDP figures from the World Bank a "Labour" party view?
I think you support the labour party on the basis of the posts I have read... simple question is, do you?"Oh, I just realised that you will start to complain if I don't explain my position explicitly. I support the Labour party over the current incarnation of the Conservative party which is incompetent and corrupt and bullying. I do not intend to vote for the Labour party. You can stop fretting about my political opinions now. | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it. If only you were the chancellor...still, everyone has an opinion What is your opinion on the gap in national wealth growing between the UK and Germany? Why are you upset with me about it? I'm not upset with you at all. I don't understand why you seem to spend your waking hours typing labour party views on here. Surely you have better things to do? You think that I support the Labour party because I do not support this incompetent government?
Are GDP figures from the World Bank a "Labour" party view?
I think you support the labour party on the basis of the posts I have read... simple question is, do you?
Oh, I just realised that you will start to complain if I don't explain my position explicitly.
I support the Labour party over the current incarnation of the Conservative party which is incompetent and corrupt and bullying.
I do not intend to vote for the Labour party.
You can stop fretting about my political opinions now."Well you are daunting. It seems you try to project superior intellect on others. You been called out multiple times on your actions but you refuse to accept multiple people's analogy of you. We can do it democratically if you wish a simple yes or no answer as to if you are a dick. Keep going people see right through you. You scream facts behind a fascade of ignorance to others. | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data? There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period." Why stop at 2021? Why don’t you use the current figures in the post Brexit era? Surely it is the performance post Brexit that we are debating. | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data? There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period." If, as you claim, the gap is narrowing, France’s gdp will be greater than the UK’s as was the case in 2013 long before any Brexit effect. | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data? There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period. Why stop at 2021? Why don’t you use the current figures in the post Brexit era? Surely it is the performance post Brexit that we are debating. " The effects of Brexit started before the vote as the country was destabilised. 2015 was arbitrary. We could start earlier. The World Bank data currently runs to 2021. Do the 2022 figures make a substantial difference. It is the effect of Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was only signed at the end of 2020 and overlaid by COVID then followed by the war in Ukraine. From the point of view of economics, it's been an incredibly hard time to make predictions about anything. That shouldn't be suprising. Why do you think that the UK economy has performed better than its G7 peers over this period? What are the years that you want to use? Why do you think they are the most appropriate? Are you just looking at data or trying to prove a point? | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data? There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period. If, as you claim, the gap is narrowing, France’s gdp will be greater than the UK’s as was the case in 2013 long before any Brexit effect. " Individual countries make individual decisions and can be affected differently from global events. That's why you compare to groups of similar countries to spot trends. 2015 led to a global slow down driven by demand falling from China. The UK doesn't export as much physically. Much of what we do is financial and that was still flowing with QE. You can see that when you look at the G7. UK companies were also stockpiling ahead of an uncertain Brexit vote. Again, are you just looking at what the data tells you, or are you just trying to prove a point? | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data? There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period. Why stop at 2021? Why don’t you use the current figures in the post Brexit era? Surely it is the performance post Brexit that we are debating. The effects of Brexit started before the vote as the country was destabilised. 2015 was arbitrary. We could start earlier. The World Bank data currently runs to 2021. Do the 2022 figures make a substantial difference. It is the effect of Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was only signed at the end of 2020 and overlaid by COVID then followed by the war in Ukraine. From the point of view of economics, it's been an incredibly hard time to make predictions about anything. That shouldn't be suprising. Why do you think that the UK economy has performed better than its G7 peers over this period? What are the years that you want to use? Why do you think they are the most appropriate? Are you just looking at data or trying to prove a point?" You stated that the gap in gdp between F and Uk is narrowing. That is untrue. You have based your argument of a negative Brexit effect on a fallacy. I predict that the gap in GDP widened in 2022 and will widen further this year, whereas you claim that it is narrowing. | |||
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"You see easy. For 7 years and for tbe last year in this forum. You've been bleating about how brexit holds back investment. Creates uncertainty, drops the value of the pound, stops people putting ev battery plants in the uk means trade barriers go up. Yet in those same 7 years uk gdp has increased more since q2 2016. You are trying to pin it on exports. But you can see the historical patterns of exports on trading economics. Uknrxports were hit more after the pandemic. And if trade barriers went up for then uk why has germanys exports been affected more? Remember our gdp took the biggest hit as well because how we calculated services in education and NHS. You were sent a link on this I am sorry but " Germany exports more" doesn't cut it. I told you this. Proportion of GDP from exports. UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, when global economies purchase fewer foreign goods, Germany is affected more. If Germany's exports fall 10% their GDP falls by 4.7%. For the UK it's 2.9%. I'm not sure how else to explain it. If only you were the chancellor...still, everyone has an opinion What is your opinion on the gap in national wealth growing between the UK and Germany? Why are you upset with me about it? I'm not upset with you at all. I don't understand why you seem to spend your waking hours typing labour party views on here. Surely you have better things to do? You think that I support the Labour party because I do not support this incompetent government?
Are GDP figures from the World Bank a "Labour" party view?
I think you support the labour party on the basis of the posts I have read... simple question is, do you?
Oh, I just realised that you will start to complain if I don't explain my position explicitly.
I support the Labour party over the current incarnation of the Conservative party which is incompetent and corrupt and bullying.
I do not intend to vote for the Labour party.
You can stop fretting about my political opinions now. Well you are daunting. It seems you try to project superior intellect on others. You been called out multiple times on your actions but you refuse to accept multiple people's analogy of you. We can do it democratically if you wish a simple yes or no answer as to if you are a dick. Keep going people see right through you. You scream facts behind a fascade of ignorance to others. "You have just written a lot of words. I'm not trying to "project" anything. All I am doing is explaining information in a completely conventional way. No heroic reinterpretations and exaggerations. It doesn't bother me if that does not align with people's views on here. What is interesting to me is seeing the reactions and the arguments made. I ask questions that appear to frustrate people because they don't like the answers when they look them up themselves. The level of coherence falls off and the abuse begins once the "facts" that people have been using turn out not to prove their points and their closely held beliefs aren't as grounded as they believe. Personal abuse is the go-to position of people when their beliefs are threatened not of people who have confidence in them. Why do you find it so important to keep coming back and posting criticism of me directly? This is a thread about economic forecasting. Do you have any interest in the accuracy of UK economic forecasts? | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data? There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period. Why stop at 2021? Why don’t you use the current figures in the post Brexit era? Surely it is the performance post Brexit that we are debating. The effects of Brexit started before the vote as the country was destabilised. 2015 was arbitrary. We could start earlier. The World Bank data currently runs to 2021. Do the 2022 figures make a substantial difference. It is the effect of Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was only signed at the end of 2020 and overlaid by COVID then followed by the war in Ukraine. From the point of view of economics, it's been an incredibly hard time to make predictions about anything. That shouldn't be suprising. Why do you think that the UK economy has performed better than its G7 peers over this period? What are the years that you want to use? Why do you think they are the most appropriate? Are you just looking at data or trying to prove a point? You stated that the gap in gdp between F and Uk is narrowing. That is untrue. You have based your argument of a negative Brexit effect on a fallacy. I predict that the gap in GDP widened in 2022 and will widen further this year, whereas you claim that it is narrowing." I'm just looking at the data. I'm not looking to reinterpret it or prove a point. In most cases I am just restating what those more knowledgeable are saying about it in a slightly different way. The 2022 GDP data exists, it just happens not to be in the World Bank graph for some reason. You can write down how your prediction compares to reality now, if you like. You don't fix problems by pretending that they don't exist. | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data? There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period. Why stop at 2021? Why don’t you use the current figures in the post Brexit era? Surely it is the performance post Brexit that we are debating. The effects of Brexit started before the vote as the country was destabilised. 2015 was arbitrary. We could start earlier. The World Bank data currently runs to 2021. Do the 2022 figures make a substantial difference. It is the effect of Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was only signed at the end of 2020 and overlaid by COVID then followed by the war in Ukraine. From the point of view of economics, it's been an incredibly hard time to make predictions about anything. That shouldn't be suprising. Why do you think that the UK economy has performed better than its G7 peers over this period? What are the years that you want to use? Why do you think they are the most appropriate? Are you just looking at data or trying to prove a point? You stated that the gap in gdp between F and Uk is narrowing. That is untrue. You have based your argument of a negative Brexit effect on a fallacy. I predict that the gap in GDP widened in 2022 and will widen further this year, whereas you claim that it is narrowing. I'm just looking at the data. I'm not looking to reinterpret it or prove a point. In most cases I am just restating what those more knowledgeable are saying about it in a slightly different way. The 2022 GDP data exists, it just happens not to be in the World Bank graph for some reason. You can write down how your prediction compares to reality now, if you like. You don't fix problems by pretending that they don't exist." The numbers I’ve seen show a gap of $.29 trillion for 2022. Thus the gap is currently widening contra to your assertion. | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data? There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period. Why stop at 2021? Why don’t you use the current figures in the post Brexit era? Surely it is the performance post Brexit that we are debating. The effects of Brexit started before the vote as the country was destabilised. 2015 was arbitrary. We could start earlier. The World Bank data currently runs to 2021. Do the 2022 figures make a substantial difference. It is the effect of Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was only signed at the end of 2020 and overlaid by COVID then followed by the war in Ukraine. From the point of view of economics, it's been an incredibly hard time to make predictions about anything. That shouldn't be suprising. Why do you think that the UK economy has performed better than its G7 peers over this period? What are the years that you want to use? Why do you think they are the most appropriate? Are you just looking at data or trying to prove a point? You stated that the gap in gdp between F and Uk is narrowing. That is untrue. You have based your argument of a negative Brexit effect on a fallacy. I predict that the gap in GDP widened in 2022 and will widen further this year, whereas you claim that it is narrowing. I'm just looking at the data. I'm not looking to reinterpret it or prove a point. In most cases I am just restating what those more knowledgeable are saying about it in a slightly different way. The 2022 GDP data exists, it just happens not to be in the World Bank graph for some reason. You can write down how your prediction compares to reality now, if you like. You don't fix problems by pretending that they don't exist. The numbers I’ve seen show a gap of $.29 trillion for 2022. Thus the gap is currently widening contra to your assertion. " I'm assuming your looking at IMF? They show a $0.29t gap. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like."But they have . I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany."Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas. U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant. As Cris Patten said on QT the other night: “Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.” I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks. This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas.
U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant.
As Cris Patten said on QT the other night:
“Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.”
I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks.
This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans.
"Well at least you got some things right. Lithuania & France are not above the UK in GDP per capita charts according to the IMF for 2022. Where does your Poland claim come from? | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas.
U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant.
As Cris Patten said on QT the other night:
“Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.”
I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks.
This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans.
"According to World Bank data, U.K. gdp per capita is double that of Lithuania. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas.
U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant.
As Cris Patten said on QT the other night:
“Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.”
I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks.
This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans.
Well at least you got some things right.
Lithuania & France are not above the UK in GDP per capita charts according to the IMF for 2022.
Where does your Poland claim come from?"Not my claim. Chris Patten former Chairman of the Conservative Party (when there was one - his words) said it on QT on Thursday. Nobody has rebutted it as far as I have seen. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas.
U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant.
As Cris Patten said on QT the other night:
“Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.”
I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks.
This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans.
Well at least you got some things right.
Lithuania & France are not above the UK in GDP per capita charts according to the IMF for 2022.
Where does your Poland claim come from?
Not my claim.
Chris Patten former Chairman of the Conservative Party (when there was one - his words) said it on QT on Thursday.
Nobody has rebutted it as far as I have seen."Ah apologies, I didn't read properly. I'm refuting it now, Chris Patten is chatting bollocks according to The IMF. Not sure where he's getting his data from but he's wrong. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas.
U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant.
As Cris Patten said on QT the other night:
“Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.”
I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks.
This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans.
"He was resoundingly flogged for getting that completely wrong | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas.
U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant.
As Cris Patten said on QT the other night:
“Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.”
I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks.
This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans.
Well at least you got some things right.
Lithuania & France are not above the UK in GDP per capita charts according to the IMF for 2022.
Where does your Poland claim come from?
Not my claim.
Chris Patten former Chairman of the Conservative Party (when there was one - his words) said it on QT on Thursday.
Nobody has rebutted it as far as I have seen."On twitter people laughed at how bad he was wrong. Would you like some quotes? | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas.
U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant.
As Cris Patten said on QT the other night:
“Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.”
I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks.
This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans.
Well at least you got some things right.
Lithuania & France are not above the UK in GDP per capita charts according to the IMF for 2022.
Where does your Poland claim come from?
Not my claim.
Chris Patten former Chairman of the Conservative Party (when there was one - his words) said it on QT on Thursday.
Nobody has rebutted it as far as I have seen.
On twitter people laughed at how bad he was wrong.
Would you like some quotes?"please ! Is it just Lithuania he was wrong on ? (I think so by world bank data) Not sure about the Poland bit. I wonder where he go Lithuania from. Best I can guess is to do with better equality for disposable income. It's not a country that appears in many comparisons. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas.
U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant.
As Cris Patten said on QT the other night:
“Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.”
I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks.
This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans.
Well at least you got some things right.
Lithuania & France are not above the UK in GDP per capita charts according to the IMF for 2022.
Where does your Poland claim come from?
Not my claim.
Chris Patten former Chairman of the Conservative Party (when there was one - his words) said it on QT on Thursday.
Nobody has rebutted it as far as I have seen.
On twitter people laughed at how bad he was wrong.
Would you like some quotes?please !
Is it just Lithuania he was wrong on ?
(I think so by world bank data)
Not sure about the Poland bit.
I wonder where he go Lithuania from. Best I can guess is to do with better equality for disposable income. It's not a country that appears in many comparisons. "The Poland bit no 1 has ever seen the data on. No one even knows where its from. "Why did no-one challenge Chris Patten's assertions re GDP per capita? He claims the UK is lower than: Germany (41,500 USD) France (42,200 USD) Poland (18,300 USD) Lithuania (18,300) The UK GDP per capita is circa 44,000 USD. Source: Trading Economics" | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
Germany has suffered terribly in the last year particularly because of their previous reliance on Russian gas.
U.K. GDP per capital is less now than it was under Blair/Brown so wherever you are getting your figures from is really somewhat irrelevant.
As Cris Patten said on QT the other night:
“Our GDP per capita now is less than not only France, Germany, the Netherlands, it's lower than Ireland. “It's lower – for heaven's sake – than Lithuania. The poorest 20 per cent in Britain are poorer than the poorest 20 per cent in Poland. That is not the sign of a country which has things going for it.”
I have no idea if Patten is right or wrong, but I have not read any significant pushback from his remarks.
This seems like another of those threads where you are claiming victories from mirages and trying to claim a degree of confidence in our current crip of Whitehall charlatans.
Well at least you got some things right.
Lithuania & France are not above the UK in GDP per capita charts according to the IMF for 2022.
Where does your Poland claim come from?
Not my claim.
Chris Patten former Chairman of the Conservative Party (when there was one - his words) said it on QT on Thursday.
Nobody has rebutted it as far as I have seen.
On twitter people laughed at how bad he was wrong.
Would you like some quotes?please !
Is it just Lithuania he was wrong on ?
(I think so by world bank data)
Not sure about the Poland bit.
I wonder where he go Lithuania from. Best I can guess is to do with better equality for disposable income. It's not a country that appears in many comparisons.
The Poland bit no 1 has ever seen the data on. No one even knows where its from.
"Why did no-one challenge Chris Patten's assertions re GDP per capita? He claims the UK is lower than:
Germany (41,500 USD)
France (42,200 USD)
Poland (18,300 USD)
Lithuania (18,300)
The UK GDP per capita is circa 44,000 USD.
Source: Trading Economics"
"aha. I was looking at purchasing power GDP per capita. UK was lower than most but still above Lithuania. The gap was a lot smaller | |||
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"Question time used to be decent many moons ago. I enjoyed it as a teenager and young adult. But they just get too many commentators on now. I wish they'd say if you quote a stat on there or law. You had to post a link after the show to the paper or law or stat page. It would soon sort out the bollocks. If you couldn't provide the link thay verified your claim you weren't invited back on until you retracted it." amen to that. Likewise HoC! | |||
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"Question time used to be decent many moons ago. I enjoyed it as a teenager and young adult. But they just get too many commentators on now. I wish they'd say if you quote a stat on there or law. You had to post a link after the show to the paper or law or stat page. It would soon sort out the bollocks. If you couldn't provide the link thay verified your claim you weren't invited back on until you retracted it.amen to that. Likewise HoC!" Would love them ditching parliamentary privilege.its even worse because of that. | |||
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"Question time used to be decent many moons ago. I enjoyed it as a teenager and young adult. But they just get too many commentators on now. I wish they'd say if you quote a stat on there or law. You had to post a link after the show to the paper or law or stat page. It would soon sort out the bollocks. If you couldn't provide the link thay verified your claim you weren't invited back on until you retracted it.amen to that. Likewise HoC! Would love them ditching parliamentary privilege.its even worse because of that." Something we agree on | |||
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"Question time used to be decent many moons ago. I enjoyed it as a teenager and young adult. But they just get too many commentators on now. I wish they'd say if you quote a stat on there or law. You had to post a link after the show to the paper or law or stat page. It would soon sort out the bollocks. If you couldn't provide the link thay verified your claim you weren't invited back on until you retracted it.amen to that. Likewise HoC! Would love them ditching parliamentary privilege.its even worse because of that. Something we agree on" I think the mayor of Teesside would agree too after he had to challenge an MP | |||
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"Question time used to be decent many moons ago. I enjoyed it as a teenager and young adult. But they just get too many commentators on now. I wish they'd say if you quote a stat on there or law. You had to post a link after the show to the paper or law or stat page. It would soon sort out the bollocks. If you couldn't provide the link thay verified your claim you weren't invited back on until you retracted it.amen to that. Likewise HoC! Would love them ditching parliamentary privilege.its even worse because of that. Something we agree on I think the mayor of Teesside would agree too after he had to challenge an MP" Yes I heard that interview on radio 4 where he called out the Labour mp. Who came on after and didn't back up his parliament claim. | |||
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"Back in 2020 France’s GDP was not far behind the UK’s. There was quite a brouhaha about it at the time. The gap is somewhat larger now. So France is also underperforming the U.K. since Brexit. Or have I misread the World Bank data? There is always variation from one year to the next. You are reading that single year correctly. I said earlier that the UK performed particularly badly in 2020 and France less so. You can see that. Happily we recovered from that particularly deep trough back towards a more typical level whereas France continued more steadily. You aren't looking at the trend at all. The data indicates trends. GDP 2015: France $2.44 trillion UK $2.93 trillion +$0.49 trillion GDP 2021: Feance $2.96 trillion UK $3.13 trillion +$0.19 trillion It's a narrowing gap. The same for GDP per capita. Inflation has also been consistently higher here over the same period. Why stop at 2021? Why don’t you use the current figures in the post Brexit era? Surely it is the performance post Brexit that we are debating. The effects of Brexit started before the vote as the country was destabilised. 2015 was arbitrary. We could start earlier. The World Bank data currently runs to 2021. Do the 2022 figures make a substantial difference. It is the effect of Brexit. The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was only signed at the end of 2020 and overlaid by COVID then followed by the war in Ukraine. From the point of view of economics, it's been an incredibly hard time to make predictions about anything. That shouldn't be suprising. Why do you think that the UK economy has performed better than its G7 peers over this period? What are the years that you want to use? Why do you think they are the most appropriate? Are you just looking at data or trying to prove a point? You stated that the gap in gdp between F and Uk is narrowing. That is untrue. You have based your argument of a negative Brexit effect on a fallacy. I predict that the gap in GDP widened in 2022 and will widen further this year, whereas you claim that it is narrowing. I'm just looking at the data. I'm not looking to reinterpret it or prove a point. In most cases I am just restating what those more knowledgeable are saying about it in a slightly different way. The 2022 GDP data exists, it just happens not to be in the World Bank graph for some reason. You can write down how your prediction compares to reality now, if you like. You don't fix problems by pretending that they don't exist. The numbers I’ve seen show a gap of $.29 trillion for 2022. Thus the gap is currently widening contra to your assertion. I'm assuming your looking at IMF? They show a $0.29t gap." Perhaps you would consider comparing consistent figures? The IMF GDP gap based on purchasing power parity was: 2015 +$0.02 trillion 2021 +$0.03 trillion 2022 +$0.01 trillion GDP current prices: 2015 +$0.50 trillion 2021 +$0.16 trillion 2022 +$0.29 trillion Sharply narrowed after Brexit. Still smaller with purchasing power parity trending closer but current prices increasing which is largely an inflation effect as ours is worse. The point is to look at trends, not year to year changes. Nobody is saying that the UK economy has done better than any G7 country since Brexit except for, perhaps Italy which has been its own basket case for some time. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany."What point, are you making? We have become progressively poorer than Germany since Brexit. Percentage growth is relative to an absolute figure. So, if Germany and the UK have similar growth rates, which they have since 2015, then Germany will continue to get richer by a larger absolute amount. That's what actually matters, especially when compared to inflation which we have been consistently higher. Put on top of that the fact that our economy shrank 6.3% more than Germany in 2020, which also explains the 4.9% swing in the other direction in 2020. What is undeniable is that you are not correct in your assertion at all. Germany has not "suffered more" than the UK since Brexit. Germany is wealthier overall and per person now than it was before Brexit compared to the UK. There are multiple indicators and it is normal to compare with multiple countries to understand trends. | |||
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"Here is my economic forecast. If you put up barriers to trade with your closest and largest trade partners you are going to suffer. The amount of suffering is directly proportional to how difficult you choose to make it, the more difficult you make it, the more you will suffer. Fucking over millions of small businesses can never really be mitigated by multi-national who is now able to import uranium from Australia a little bit cheaper, whilst simultaneously paying more for the shipping costs because of increasing oil prices. CAVEAT - I do not claim to be an economist, but some things are as obvious as the difference between apples and bananas. So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more. Which small businesses got fucked over. The majority of them didn't deal with the e.u. In the long run you are lowering barriers to trade. Because Germany exports more to the rest of the World. They export more full stop. That's not an answer. Can you answer why Germany is struggling more than uk to grow since q2 2016 It is an answer. If they export more as a proportion of GDP UK 27.95% Germany 47.03% So, if other countries in the world are suffering economically that will have a bigger effect on an exporting economy. Has Professor Gudgin or Briefings for Britain told you something? Germany hasn't been struggling relative to the UK since 2016. Sadly, the UK economy was doing better than Germany up until 2015. At that point: The gap between German and UK has grown in absolute terms since 2015. So has per capita GDP, so there's more money per person. Conversely UK inflation has been higher so the real value of what we earn has been falling. GDP growth has been roughly similar except in 2020 when the UK fell about three times as much. Which measure have you been told to get upset about? Butnits nit an answer is it. They export more isn't an answer why gdp has lagged behind the uk. Are yous aging post vote for the last 7 year germanys exports have reduced in their growth? Why has the uk gdp grown more if brexit is a factor holding the uk back? You haven't reconciled it at all. Nice attempt to change the subject on per capita etc.but let's stick to gdp. Why have they grown less than brexkt affected Britain? I explained quite clearly why having higher exports leads to sharper drops during global downturns. What do you not understand? The UK has not "grown more". I summarised the World Bank data that was available. I didn't "change the subject". GDP 2015: Germany $3.36 trillion UK $2.93 trillion -$0.43 trillion GDP 2021: Germany $4.26 trillion UK $3.13 trillion -$1.13 trillion What's the thing that you are trying to explain? Hmm 2015 numbers. And not growth but absolute. And in dolars Almost like you pay not attention isn't it. Shall we start again. Can you explain why German gdp grew less than the uk since q2 2016 In domestic currencies please.
You only got 3 things completely wrong.
Germany clearly hasn't grown less than us. They are weather than us now than they were in 2015.
It also has not grown at a slower rate than us on average except in the one year when our growth went through the floor.
You can look at the graph.
If you want to work it out in a domestic currency then go ahead of you think that's helpful. You can throw in purchasing power parity too if you like.
I still don't know what point are you trying to make? Explain how and why Germany is performing "worse" than we are. Use your Briefings for Britain data if you like.
But they have .
I am sorry youbdont lile facts. But this is simply undeniable. Since q2 2016 the uk gdp has grown more than Germany.
What point, are you making?
We have become progressively poorer than Germany since Brexit.
Percentage growth is relative to an absolute figure.
So, if Germany and the UK have similar growth rates, which they have since 2015, then Germany will continue to get richer by a larger absolute amount. That's what actually matters, especially when compared to inflation which we have been consistently higher.
Put on top of that the fact that our economy shrank 6.3% more than Germany in 2020, which also explains the 4.9% swing in the other direction in 2020.
What is undeniable is that you are not correct in your assertion at all. Germany has not "suffered more" than the UK since Brexit. Germany is wealthier overall and per person now than it was before Brexit compared to the UK.
There are multiple indicators and it is normal to compare with multiple countries to understand trends."My assertion was since q2 2016. The uk economy grew more than Germany. This is true. You using 2015 as a starting point doesn't stop that. I dont know why you continue using data and starting points I am not discussing to try and prove me wrong | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. " Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same!" Isn't that fair though? Using the data from Q2 2016 is a fair reference (IMO) as that's the very time remainers (and others) tell us we fucked ourselves with the vote. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! Isn't that fair though? Using the data from Q2 2016 is a fair reference (IMO) as that's the very time remainers (and others) tell us we fucked ourselves with the vote. " Just to add further, if we're gonna use 2015, why not 2010, or 2000, 1995. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. " It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same!" My original question was this which couldn't be answered. If brexit was so bad for the uk economy "So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more." Easy made a hash of it blaming exports. But in the same.e thread has later said the uk receded more. During corona So undermined his own point So again If brexit bad and e.u strong. Why is Germany performing so poorly vs the uk over a 7 year period after the vote to leave | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! Isn't that fair though? Using the data from Q2 2016 is a fair reference (IMO) as that's the very time remainers (and others) tell us we fucked ourselves with the vote. " Exactly the point. I think it's the fair area to start where as you say many berate the drop in pound and drops in investment. I've no idea why we'd start in 2015. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! Isn't that fair though? Using the data from Q2 2016 is a fair reference (IMO) as that's the very time remainers (and others) tell us we fucked ourselves with the vote. Just to add further, if we're gonna use 2015, why not 2010, or 2000, 1995. " Yeah maybe. I’m not an economist so no idea what the correct timeframe would be for understanding macro-economic trends. But I do think the point on absolute (ie baseline) is correct. Talking % growth is of course interesting and a measure of how healthy an economy is, but if that economy was previously poorer or took more of a hit, then high growth figures are misleading as there is a steeper mountain to climb. Also one thing Morley has demonstrated in various threads is that different countries are using different models to calculate GDP so it is a bit like comparing apples with pears. Bit of a mind fuck really. I think the only true indicator is hospitality and retail. If people are poorer/feel poorer they spend less money (or grow unsustainable debt). | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! My original question was this which couldn't be answered. If brexit was so bad for the uk economy "So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more." Easy made a hash of it blaming exports. But in the same.e thread has later said the uk receded more. During corona So undermined his own point So again If brexit bad and e.u strong. Why is Germany performing so poorly vs the uk over a 7 year period after the vote to leave " There are 27 countries in the EU , Germany is only one of them | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! Isn't that fair though? Using the data from Q2 2016 is a fair reference (IMO) as that's the very time remainers (and others) tell us we fucked ourselves with the vote. Just to add further, if we're gonna use 2015, why not 2010, or 2000, 1995. Yeah maybe. I’m not an economist so no idea what the correct timeframe would be for understanding macro-economic trends. But I do think the point on absolute (ie baseline) is correct. Talking % growth is of course interesting and a measure of how healthy an economy is, but if that economy was previously poorer or took more of a hit, then high growth figures are misleading as there is a steeper mountain to climb. Also one thing Morley has demonstrated in various threads is that different countries are using different models to calculate GDP so it is a bit like comparing apples with pears. Bit of a mind fuck really. I think the only true indicator is hospitality and retail. If people are poorer/feel poorer they spend less money (or grow unsustainable debt). " As always. If the ukis ahead of pther economies who don't use oecd standards. Then by our previous measures we are racing ahead of them. So us being ahead of them with the hinderence is concerning for them. This is not a percentage of growth from a crash. This is using a starting point in q2 2016 as a baseline of 100% and the growth since then. The recession doesn't affect this for "growth purposes in terms of rebound | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! Isn't that fair though? Using the data from Q2 2016 is a fair reference (IMO) as that's the very time remainers (and others) tell us we fucked ourselves with the vote. Just to add further, if we're gonna use 2015, why not 2010, or 2000, 1995. Yeah maybe. I’m not an economist so no idea what the correct timeframe would be for understanding macro-economic trends. But I do think the point on absolute (ie baseline) is correct. Talking % growth is of course interesting and a measure of how healthy an economy is, but if that economy was previously poorer or took more of a hit, then high growth figures are misleading as there is a steeper mountain to climb. Also one thing Morley has demonstrated in various threads is that different countries are using different models to calculate GDP so it is a bit like comparing apples with pears. Bit of a mind fuck really. I think the only true indicator is hospitality and retail. If people are poorer/feel poorer they spend less money (or grow unsustainable debt). As always. If the ukis ahead of pther economies who don't use oecd standards. Then by our previous measures we are racing ahead of them. So us being ahead of them with the hinderence is concerning for them. This is not a percentage of growth from a crash. This is using a starting point in q2 2016 as a baseline of 100% and the growth since then. The recession doesn't affect this for "growth purposes in terms of rebound " | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! Isn't that fair though? Using the data from Q2 2016 is a fair reference (IMO) as that's the very time remainers (and others) tell us we fucked ourselves with the vote. Just to add further, if we're gonna use 2015, why not 2010, or 2000, 1995. " No, the influence and uncertainty of the Brexit vote came in advance of the result. I think that you are well aware of this. You can also look at an earlier time frame. That will indicate quite clearly that the UK was outperforming many of its peers. That has since deteriorated substantially. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt." The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! My original question was this which couldn't be answered. If brexit was so bad for the uk economy "So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more." Easy made a hash of it blaming exports. But in the same.e thread has later said the uk receded more. During corona So undermined his own point So again If brexit bad and e.u strong. Why is Germany performing so poorly vs the uk over a 7 year period after the vote to leave " So, again, Germany has not perform ling badly comparator the UK. The gap in wealth is growing in Germany's favour. You were unable to provide any explanation to as to why you don't believe that Germany's much higher exports are not a significant influence on their economy when global demand falls. Are you saying that the UK did not perform more poorly during Corona? The ONS' own figures say that we did, even with their recalculation. That indicates an even worse performance by the UK as it had less of a global export loss as a proportion of its economy than Germany. Again, Germany is not the only country in the World,but do keep digging. It's interesting how you explain yourself when there isn't a Briefings for Britain paper to quote. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! My original question was this which couldn't be answered. If brexit was so bad for the uk economy "So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more." Easy made a hash of it blaming exports. But in the same.e thread has later said the uk receded more. During corona So undermined his own point So again If brexit bad and e.u strong. Why is Germany performing so poorly vs the uk over a 7 year period after the vote to leave So, again, Germany has not perform ling badly comparator the UK. The gap in wealth is growing in Germany's favour. You were unable to provide any explanation to as to why you don't believe that Germany's much higher exports are not a significant influence on their economy when global demand falls. Are you saying that the UK did not perform more poorly during Corona? The ONS' own figures say that we did, even with their recalculation. That indicates an even worse performance by the UK as it had less of a global export loss as a proportion of its economy than Germany. Again, Germany is not the only country in the World,but do keep digging. It's interesting how you explain yourself when there isn't a Briefings for Britain paper to quote." He gets all his information and copies it from Gully on Twitter | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since." How was the economy affected before the vote. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since." Go on use gdp growth from 2006 to 2016 then. How does the uk stack up? I've chosen this way because obviously the financial crash of 2008 it the uk in a hard way and we'd want to capture the hit and rebound. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! My original question was this which couldn't be answered. If brexit was so bad for the uk economy "So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more." Easy made a hash of it blaming exports. But in the same.e thread has later said the uk receded more. During corona So undermined his own point So again If brexit bad and e.u strong. Why is Germany performing so poorly vs the uk over a 7 year period after the vote to leave So, again, Germany has not perform ling badly comparator the UK. The gap in wealth is growing in Germany's favour. You were unable to provide any explanation to as to why you don't believe that Germany's much higher exports are not a significant influence on their economy when global demand falls. Are you saying that the UK did not perform more poorly during Corona? The ONS' own figures say that we did, even with their recalculation. That indicates an even worse performance by the UK as it had less of a global export loss as a proportion of its economy than Germany. Again, Germany is not the only country in the World,but do keep digging. It's interesting how you explain yourself when there isn't a Briefings for Britain paper to quote." Again. You think uk exports weren't affected. Have you checked the service sector for that? What's your reason on exports dipping from 2016-2020 vs the uk which was going through brexit? | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote." From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. Go on use gdp growth from 2006 to 2016 then. How does the uk stack up? I've chosen this way because obviously the financial crash of 2008 it the uk in a hard way and we'd want to capture the hit and rebound." If you want to start looking at another timeframe then go right ahead. Your mission will now be to bend the data to show that we were doing much worse within the EU compared to whichever random country and measure that you wish to use. I still don't know what point you are making, but that's how you prove it judging by what you've written so far. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! My original question was this which couldn't be answered. If brexit was so bad for the uk economy "So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more." Easy made a hash of it blaming exports. But in the same.e thread has later said the uk receded more. During corona So undermined his own point So again If brexit bad and e.u strong. Why is Germany performing so poorly vs the uk over a 7 year period after the vote to leave So, again, Germany has not perform ling badly comparator the UK. The gap in wealth is growing in Germany's favour. You were unable to provide any explanation to as to why you don't believe that Germany's much higher exports are not a significant influence on their economy when global demand falls. Are you saying that the UK did not perform more poorly during Corona? The ONS' own figures say that we did, even with their recalculation. That indicates an even worse performance by the UK as it had less of a global export loss as a proportion of its economy than Germany. Again, Germany is not the only country in the World,but do keep digging. It's interesting how you explain yourself when there isn't a Briefings for Britain paper to quote. Again. You think uk exports weren't affected. Have you checked the service sector for that? What's your reason on exports dipping from 2016-2020 vs the uk which was going through brexit?" No, I didn't write that or imply that. UK exports can be affected by reduced purchasing from other countries in exactly the same way. However, as exports form a lower proportion of our GDP, that has a lower effect on our overall GDP. The reason for German exports dipping? They export much more to the rest of the world, particularly China which went through some periods of reduced growth. However, once again, the same percentage fall in German exports has a larger effect on their economy as exports generate a larger part of their economy than ours. The Brexit TCA only came into effect at the end of 2020 anyway, so direct consequences have only taken effect slowly since then. Before that point the main effect has been through delayed or cancelled investment and anticipatory and contingency work. | |||
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"You are right though. Germany isn't the only country. Ireland just entered recession. The pmis for the uk are looking pretty good vs comparative countriesin the e.u " If you like. The latest IMF prediction was given before an increase in core UK inflation that surprised everyone. Perhaps you will be correct as the only person predicting strong UK economic growth now. Financial organisations will modify their predictions based on whatever data is available. You can use your finger. Over 10-20 years we can see who is more accurate. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying" Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! My original question was this which couldn't be answered. If brexit was so bad for the uk economy "So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more." Easy made a hash of it blaming exports. But in the same.e thread has later said the uk receded more. During corona So undermined his own point So again If brexit bad and e.u strong. Why is Germany performing so poorly vs the uk over a 7 year period after the vote to leave So, again, Germany has not perform ling badly comparator the UK. The gap in wealth is growing in Germany's favour. You were unable to provide any explanation to as to why you don't believe that Germany's much higher exports are not a significant influence on their economy when global demand falls. Are you saying that the UK did not perform more poorly during Corona? The ONS' own figures say that we did, even with their recalculation. That indicates an even worse performance by the UK as it had less of a global export loss as a proportion of its economy than Germany. Again, Germany is not the only country in the World,but do keep digging. It's interesting how you explain yourself when there isn't a Briefings for Britain paper to quote. Again. You think uk exports weren't affected. Have you checked the service sector for that? What's your reason on exports dipping from 2016-2020 vs the uk which was going through brexit? No, I didn't write that or imply that. UK exports can be affected by reduced purchasing from other countries in exactly the same way. However, as exports form a lower proportion of our GDP, that has a lower effect on our overall GDP. The reason for German exports dipping? They export much more to the rest of the world, particularly China which went through some periods of reduced growth. However, once again, the same percentage fall in German exports has a larger effect on their economy as exports generate a larger part of their economy than ours. The Brexit TCA only came into effect at the end of 2020 anyway, so direct consequences have only taken effect slowly since then. Before that point the main effect has been through delayed or cancelled investment and anticipatory and contingency work." Since 2016 you think German exports to China have declined or been weak? I think you need to revisit your data. You think the uk didn't suffer export problems. You seem to be trying to attribute corona virus as a sole German problem? | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! My original question was this which couldn't be answered. If brexit was so bad for the uk economy "So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more." Easy made a hash of it blaming exports. But in the same.e thread has later said the uk receded more. During corona So undermined his own point So again If brexit bad and e.u strong. Why is Germany performing so poorly vs the uk over a 7 year period after the vote to leave So, again, Germany has not perform ling badly comparator the UK. The gap in wealth is growing in Germany's favour. You were unable to provide any explanation to as to why you don't believe that Germany's much higher exports are not a significant influence on their economy when global demand falls. Are you saying that the UK did not perform more poorly during Corona? The ONS' own figures say that we did, even with their recalculation. That indicates an even worse performance by the UK as it had less of a global export loss as a proportion of its economy than Germany. Again, Germany is not the only country in the World,but do keep digging. It's interesting how you explain yourself when there isn't a Briefings for Britain paper to quote. Again. You think uk exports weren't affected. Have you checked the service sector for that? What's your reason on exports dipping from 2016-2020 vs the uk which was going through brexit? No, I didn't write that or imply that. UK exports can be affected by reduced purchasing from other countries in exactly the same way. However, as exports form a lower proportion of our GDP, that has a lower effect on our overall GDP. The reason for German exports dipping? They export much more to the rest of the world, particularly China which went through some periods of reduced growth. However, once again, the same percentage fall in German exports has a larger effect on their economy as exports generate a larger part of their economy than ours. The Brexit TCA only came into effect at the end of 2020 anyway, so direct consequences have only taken effect slowly since then. Before that point the main effect has been through delayed or cancelled investment and anticipatory and contingency work." I would argue that the main effect happened pre brexit witht be fall of the pound and uncertainty Anything else now is " sunlit uplands" | |||
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"So the quote was that since Q2 2016 the UK has either grown more or performed better than Germany. Simple question is that correct ? Can it be shown to be false? I don't know the answer myself. Both sides of economic arguments seem to cherry pick particular dates to start and finish but this one seems to be from Q2 2016" Mine was always thay the uk had outgrown Germany since q2 2016 in gdp For some reason easy decided to use. 2015 Purchasing power parity Translating the currency to dollars. Apparently German exports are now the only exports affected by corona for why Germany is suffering now Yup see. When the uk doesn't grow as expected. Its nothing to do with global recession,corona, other coutnries. But when Germany is doing piss poor. It certainly isn't the e.u its other factors. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post." Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others." Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. Your implied point as a brexit supporter is “look how well the UK is doing out of the EU and how bad the EU (or part thereof) is doing” and looking for anything to back that up. And yes, remain supporters often do the same! My original question was this which couldn't be answered. If brexit was so bad for the uk economy "So the perhaps you can answer the question no 1 else can Why had Germany suffered MORE than the uk during this time since the brexit vote in 2016. The uk has grown more." Easy made a hash of it blaming exports. But in the same.e thread has later said the uk receded more. During corona So undermined his own point So again If brexit bad and e.u strong. Why is Germany performing so poorly vs the uk over a 7 year period after the vote to leave So, again, Germany has not perform ling badly comparator the UK. The gap in wealth is growing in Germany's favour. You were unable to provide any explanation to as to why you don't believe that Germany's much higher exports are not a significant influence on their economy when global demand falls. Are you saying that the UK did not perform more poorly during Corona? The ONS' own figures say that we did, even with their recalculation. That indicates an even worse performance by the UK as it had less of a global export loss as a proportion of its economy than Germany. Again, Germany is not the only country in the World,but do keep digging. It's interesting how you explain yourself when there isn't a Briefings for Britain paper to quote. Again. You think uk exports weren't affected. Have you checked the service sector for that? What's your reason on exports dipping from 2016-2020 vs the uk which was going through brexit? No, I didn't write that or imply that. UK exports can be affected by reduced purchasing from other countries in exactly the same way. However, as exports form a lower proportion of our GDP, that has a lower effect on our overall GDP. The reason for German exports dipping? They export much more to the rest of the world, particularly China which went through some periods of reduced growth. However, once again, the same percentage fall in German exports has a larger effect on their economy as exports generate a larger part of their economy than ours. The Brexit TCA only came into effect at the end of 2020 anyway, so direct consequences have only taken effect slowly since then. Before that point the main effect has been through delayed or cancelled investment and anticipatory and contingency work. Since 2016 you think German exports to China have declined or been weak? I think you need to revisit your data. You think the uk didn't suffer export problems. You seem to be trying to attribute corona virus as a sole German problem?" You are correct German exports have been more robust than I thought except for 2019 and 2020. So for the upteenth time, the German economy has not been performing worse than the UK since 2016. You seem desperate to look at growth alone, but the gap in GDP has grown between our two countries both in absolute terms and per person. Growth will vary depending on how deep our falls are and the subsequent return to a "normal" baseline. You may know this, you may not, but you have been told this more than once. I have said that German export effects are larger because they form a larger part of their economy. A small percentage drop has a larger impact on the national economy. Is this concept understandable? I did not say at any point that the UK has not had export falls. I have not indicated in any way that Coronavirus is solely a German problem. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again." 2 out if 10 ain't bad.... What I'm not understanding though, if the uncertainty over Brexit was so strong, why did we see a decent increase in Q4 2015? Here's the 2 quotes: "While the longer term implications of ‘Brexit’ are debatable and depend on a wide range of factors, the short-term implications would undoubtedly be messy" "Uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, weak overseas growth and financial market volatility are all creating an unsettling business environment and point to downside risks to the economy in 2016" | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again." Uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, weak overseas growth and financial market volatility are all creating an unsettling business environment and point to downside risks to the economy in 2016." "And the economy faces a number of headwinds this year, potentially including the EU referendum and rising inflation and interest rates. So we doubt that we will see a strong pick-up in growth this year." "The public could easily vote to leave the European Union in a referendum later this year, if the latest opinion polls give an accurate picture of voting intention. While the longer term implications of ‘Brexit’ are debatable and depend on a wide range of factors, the short-term implications would undoubtedly be messy. If Brexit happens, Cebr envisions a sharp fall in the value of sterling, as well as further volatility in other financial markets. There would also be negative impacts on overseas demand for property and foreign direct investment – in the short term at least." Decisions and behaviours in 2015 in anticipation of 2016. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again. 2 out if 10 ain't bad.... What I'm not understanding though, if the uncertainty over Brexit was so strong, why did we see a decent increase in Q4 2015? Here's the 2 quotes: "While the longer term implications of ‘Brexit’ are debatable and depend on a wide range of factors, the short-term implications would undoubtedly be messy" "Uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, weak overseas growth and financial market volatility are all creating an unsettling business environment and point to downside risks to the economy in 2016"" It was all still theoretical in 2015. That's the point. The economy was moving on as per normal. It became more real as the referendum approached and subsequently. Therefore, despite the general effect on the global economy, 2015 is a more typical one. 2016 is not as it includes both the short term anticipation and immediate consequences of the Brexit vote. It is not a baseline year. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again. 2 out if 10 ain't bad.... What I'm not understanding though, if the uncertainty over Brexit was so strong, why did we see a decent increase in Q4 2015? Here's the 2 quotes: "While the longer term implications of ‘Brexit’ are debatable and depend on a wide range of factors, the short-term implications would undoubtedly be messy" "Uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, weak overseas growth and financial market volatility are all creating an unsettling business environment and point to downside risks to the economy in 2016"" Sadly for easy. Not 2/ 10. Because he was saying brexit was having an effect prior it indicates the vote may have a down side. Another day . Another time a person doesn't read their own link... | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again. 2 out if 10 ain't bad.... What I'm not understanding though, if the uncertainty over Brexit was so strong, why did we see a decent increase in Q4 2015? Here's the 2 quotes: "While the longer term implications of ‘Brexit’ are debatable and depend on a wide range of factors, the short-term implications would undoubtedly be messy" "Uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, weak overseas growth and financial market volatility are all creating an unsettling business environment and point to downside risks to the economy in 2016" Sadly for easy. Not 2/ 10. Because he was saying brexit was having an effect prior it indicates the vote may have a down side. Another day . Another time a person doesn't read their own link... " You just cannot get this, can you? 2016 is not a baseline because it is substantially affected by anticipation of the vote as well as the consequences. The article was from 2015 discussing both what happened in 2015 and what was anticipated for 2016. This will have included long term investment decisions being delayed as the fall of was almost immediate in 2016 but invisible in 2915 as the decision would have been made before. The appropriate baseline to compare to is 2015 or even several years before 2015. The UK outperformed before Brexit and has underperformed since. Brexit is not the cause of all problems, it exacerbates the problems that we face over and above that of everyone else. I will await the next detail to quibble over. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again. 2 out if 10 ain't bad.... What I'm not understanding though, if the uncertainty over Brexit was so strong, why did we see a decent increase in Q4 2015? Here's the 2 quotes: "While the longer term implications of ‘Brexit’ are debatable and depend on a wide range of factors, the short-term implications would undoubtedly be messy" "Uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, weak overseas growth and financial market volatility are all creating an unsettling business environment and point to downside risks to the economy in 2016" Sadly for easy. Not 2/ 10. Because he was saying brexit was having an effect prior it indicates the vote may have a down side. Another day . Another time a person doesn't read their own link... You just cannot get this, can you? 2016 is not a baseline because it is substantially affected by anticipation of the vote as well as the consequences. The article was from 2015 discussing both what happened in 2015 and what was anticipated for 2016. This will have included long term investment decisions being delayed as the fall of was almost immediate in 2016 but invisible in 2915 as the decision would have been made before. The appropriate baseline to compare to is 2015 or even several years before 2015. The UK outperformed before Brexit and has underperformed since. Brexit is not the cause of all problems, it exacerbates the problems that we face over and above that of everyone else. I will await the next detail to quibble over." "The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality." How was the conomy substantially affected before the vote. You provided an article with several people replying where one.mentioned brexit having had an effect. Pre vote. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again. 2 out if 10 ain't bad.... What I'm not understanding though, if the uncertainty over Brexit was so strong, why did we see a decent increase in Q4 2015? Here's the 2 quotes: "While the longer term implications of ‘Brexit’ are debatable and depend on a wide range of factors, the short-term implications would undoubtedly be messy" "Uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, weak overseas growth and financial market volatility are all creating an unsettling business environment and point to downside risks to the economy in 2016" Sadly for easy. Not 2/ 10. Because he was saying brexit was having an effect prior it indicates the vote may have a down side. Another day . Another time a person doesn't read their own link... You just cannot get this, can you? 2016 is not a baseline because it is substantially affected by anticipation of the vote as well as the consequences. The article was from 2015 discussing both what happened in 2015 and what was anticipated for 2016. This will have included long term investment decisions being delayed as the fall of was almost immediate in 2016 but invisible in 2015 as the decision would have been made before. The appropriate baseline to compare to is 2015 or even several years before 2015. The UK outperformed before Brexit and has underperformed since. Brexit is not the cause of all problems, it exacerbates the problems that we face over and above that of everyone else. I will await the next detail to quibble over. "The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality." How was the conomy substantially affected before the vote. You provided an article with several people replying where one.mentioned brexit having had an effect. Pre vote." So, I will repeat yet again. The article was written in January 2016. It expresses the opinions of economists of reasons for what happened in 2015 and what was expected in 2015. Some negative effects of Brexit already and more expected. Growth in services not manufacturing. The clear dip in UK investment for 2016 will have been as a consequence of decisions made before the vote. Planning and budget commitments are made well in advance. So, the uncertainty well before the vote, as expressed in the article, created an effect on the economy from well before the vote with effect growing. The discussion was actually about the appropriate baseline being 2015 or the trend to 2015 compared to the trend after. The UK clearly outperformed its peers before and not since. | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again. 2 out if 10 ain't bad.... What I'm not understanding though, if the uncertainty over Brexit was so strong, why did we see a decent increase in Q4 2015? Here's the 2 quotes: "While the longer term implications of ‘Brexit’ are debatable and depend on a wide range of factors, the short-term implications would undoubtedly be messy" "Uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, weak overseas growth and financial market volatility are all creating an unsettling business environment and point to downside risks to the economy in 2016" Sadly for easy. Not 2/ 10. Because he was saying brexit was having an effect prior it indicates the vote may have a down side. Another day . Another time a person doesn't read their own link... You just cannot get this, can you? 2016 is not a baseline because it is substantially affected by anticipation of the vote as well as the consequences. The article was from 2015 discussing both what happened in 2015 and what was anticipated for 2016. This will have included long term investment decisions being delayed as the fall of was almost immediate in 2016 but invisible in 2015 as the decision would have been made before. The appropriate baseline to compare to is 2015 or even several years before 2015. The UK outperformed before Brexit and has underperformed since. Brexit is not the cause of all problems, it exacerbates the problems that we face over and above that of everyone else. I will await the next detail to quibble over. "The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality." How was the conomy substantially affected before the vote. You provided an article with several people replying where one.mentioned brexit having had an effect. Pre vote. So, I will repeat yet again. The article was written in January 2016. It expresses the opinions of economists of reasons for what happened in 2015 and what was expected in 2015. Some negative effects of Brexit already and more expected. Growth in services not manufacturing. The clear dip in UK investment for 2016 will have been as a consequence of decisions made before the vote. Planning and budget commitments are made well in advance. So, the uncertainty well before the vote, as expressed in the article, created an effect on the economy from well before the vote with effect growing. The discussion was actually about the appropriate baseline being 2015 or the trend to 2015 compared to the trend after. The UK clearly outperformed its peers before and not since." You said the effect was before 2016 and in 2015. And offered tbe article as evidence. The article pretty much dismisses this. Maybe read them next time before posting? | |||
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"Morley isn’t that a bit like saying “I am only using a data point within a very specific time frame and parameters as that supports my argument and also allows me to make implicit links that anyone who doesn’t dig deeper or look at a bigger picture will then take as a true reflection on the state of affairs?” Your statement may indeed be wholly true (I suspect it is) but it smacks of cherry picking and doesn’t provide the full context or bigger picture that actually matters. It's the data point from the brexit vote So quite apt. The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since. How was the economy affected before the vote. From The Guardian, but the easiest way to illustrate what happens in anticipation of a major economic event: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/28/uk-economic-growth-gdp-slows-2015-outlook-2016-what-economists-saying Yeah. You probably wanted to read that article. Only 1 mention of brexit impact. Main driver global economy. As I keep saying in here Read the links you post. Actually, more than one. Have another go. You are demonstrating a misunderstanding of what is being said about Brexit. It is not the sole cause of all problems. It is a negative contribution that makes the economics outcomes of all manner of internal and external events worse for us than for others. Nope not more than 1 sorry. Try again. 2 out if 10 ain't bad.... What I'm not understanding though, if the uncertainty over Brexit was so strong, why did we see a decent increase in Q4 2015? Here's the 2 quotes: "While the longer term implications of ‘Brexit’ are debatable and depend on a wide range of factors, the short-term implications would undoubtedly be messy" "Uncertainty over ‘Brexit’, weak overseas growth and financial market volatility are all creating an unsettling business environment and point to downside risks to the economy in 2016" Sadly for easy. Not 2/ 10. Because he was saying brexit was having an effect prior it indicates the vote may have a down side. Another day . Another time a person doesn't read their own link... You just cannot get this, can you? 2016 is not a baseline because it is substantially affected by anticipation of the vote as well as the consequences. The article was from 2015 discussing both what happened in 2015 and what was anticipated for 2016. This will have included long term investment decisions being delayed as the fall of was almost immediate in 2016 but invisible in 2015 as the decision would have been made before. The appropriate baseline to compare to is 2015 or even several years before 2015. The UK outperformed before Brexit and has underperformed since. Brexit is not the cause of all problems, it exacerbates the problems that we face over and above that of everyone else. I will await the next detail to quibble over. "The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality." How was the conomy substantially affected before the vote. You provided an article with several people replying where one.mentioned brexit having had an effect. Pre vote. So, I will repeat yet again. The article was written in January 2016. It expresses the opinions of economists of reasons for what happened in 2015 and what was expected in 2015. Some negative effects of Brexit already and more expected. Growth in services not manufacturing. The clear dip in UK investment for 2016 will have been as a consequence of decisions made before the vote. Planning and budget commitments are made well in advance. So, the uncertainty well before the vote, as expressed in the article, created an effect on the economy from well before the vote with effect growing. The discussion was actually about the appropriate baseline being 2015 or the trend to 2015 compared to the trend after. The UK clearly outperformed its peers before and not since. You said the effect was before 2016 and in 2015. And offered tbe article as evidence. The article pretty much dismisses this. Maybe read them next time before posting? " I shall repeat what I actually wrote yet again in reference to what you stated: "The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events." This was in reference to what you said about 2016: "It's the data point from the brexit vote" The decisions about investment that became apparent in 2016 were made in 2015. The economy was substantially affected before and after the vote. The economy hit a low in 2016 relative to it's not a baseline. It doesn't reflect the fall from 2015 and before which was better than its peers. 2015 and 2016 became progressively worse in anticipation of the vote and even more so after. I read it. Again, the article covered analysis of what happened in 2015 and what was anticipated in 2016. | |||
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"This was your quote. "The economy was substantially effected ahead of the vote. People act in anticipation of events. Ignoring this is apt only if you want to ignore reality. Looking further ahead of 2015 and you can see how much the UK was outperforming very many of its peers and worse since." You were saying the uk pre 2015 ( further ahead) the uk was outperforming its rivals then said in 2015 it was suffering But I am wondering why didn't those markets like the uncertainty of indyref. Whats the hit in 2015 you mention and then " worse since" " So, again, the UK was outperforming its peers economically. In anticipation of the Brexit vote, investment decisions for 2016 were postponed in 2015. That's how planning works. We've never recovered the previous investment trend. We've never recovered our previous outperformance. The Scottish economy is a relatively small part of the UK (8%). Most investment is made in England. The likelihood and consequences of Scottish independence was probably not considered as serious. Just for clarity, do you believe that markets do not anticipate events and not do companies and individuals? | |||
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