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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return??" Where have you got the idea that Truss' spending plans were "affordable". Please share. The tax rises may not be popular but the country can afford to borrow the vast amounts needed to keep running... | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return??" if Truss knew energy prices were going yomdrip, why promise two years of caps? At best, she was playing us by offering us a guarantee that she thought we'd value but cost her nothing. | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return??" Although getting the estimate out by 8 billion is not great, it was just an estimate. I think it was more than just the energy subsidies that spooked the markets to be fair. Anyway if the prices of energy continue to fall then it's good news as at present they are still far higher than this time last year | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return?? Where have you got the idea that Truss' spending plans were "affordable". Please share. The tax rises may not be popular but the country can afford to borrow the vast amounts needed to keep running..." Less expenditure (8 billion for a start), lower inflation so lower costs on Govt Dept, and economic growth so more taxes. Truss and Kwarteng's plans still carried a risk but the conditions for trying to grow through tax cuts look much more promising than her detractors claimed or predicted. I bet come the next election both Cons and Labour will be promising tax cuts similar to her and no-one will bat an eyelid. | |||
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"Truss was outed because she went off-script. People forget that as well as elected MP's there are many unelected people in government with a lot of power, connections, and influence. Before stepping down we recall a short clip of Truss meeting the King. 'Dear oh dear' he uttered under his breath, which was clear on the audio, and sure enough within weeks she was no longer PM." So Charlie brought her down. I knew it! | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return?? Where have you got the idea that Truss' spending plans were "affordable". Please share. The tax rises may not be popular but the country can afford to borrow the vast amounts needed to keep running... Less expenditure (8 billion for a start), lower inflation so lower costs on Govt Dept, and economic growth so more taxes. Truss and Kwarteng's plans still carried a risk but the conditions for trying to grow through tax cuts look much more promising than her detractors claimed or predicted. I bet come the next election both Cons and Labour will be promising tax cuts similar to her and no-one will bat an eyelid." The point was they intended to cut taxes based on their expected costs not on an unexpected reduction. They got it fundamentally wrong and the markets weren't going to lend them money based on magical thinking. Where have you got an £8 billion reduction in public spending from as they refuse to increase nurses wages? | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return??" No… there are certain factors that are now having to be taken into account 1) this winter… so far… thankfully… has been one of the mildest on record, which means we have used a lot less gas, therefore the pressure and demand hasn’t been so high … therefore gas prices have come down Because haven’t used as much gas.. the subsidy hasn’t needed to be as high! 2) what all of “1” has allowed countries to do is stockpile and create time for further planning to ween themselves of russian gas 3) truss problem wasn’t what she wanted to give away in the gas package… it was all the other giveaways she was giving to her friends whilst telling everyone else to tighten their belts! 4) economy growing in the last quarter… even the report credit that to a World Cup bounce they didn’t think their would be… I mean who thought people might for example buy a new tv, or order more takeout or heaven forbid spend money on alcohol!!! Posts like the op really annoy me in fact they don’t actually read any of the reports and twist some news to suit their narrative | |||
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" No… there are certain factors that are now having to be taken into account 1) this winter… so far… thankfully… has been one of the mildest on record, which means we have used a lot less gas, therefore the pressure and demand hasn’t been so high … therefore gas prices have come down Because haven’t used as much gas.. the subsidy hasn’t needed to be as high! 2) what all of “1” has allowed countries to do is stockpile and create time for further planning to ween themselves of russian gas 3) truss problem wasn’t what she wanted to give away in the gas package… it was all the other giveaways she was giving to her friends whilst telling everyone else to tighten their belts! 4) economy growing in the last quarter… even the report credit that to a World Cup bounce they didn’t think their would be… I mean who thought people might for example buy a new tv, or order more takeout or heaven forbid spend money on alcohol!!! Posts like the op really annoy me in fact they don’t actually read any of the reports and twist some news to suit their narrative " Don't be annoyed Fabio, it was just a question! But don't you think it was troubling that a PM was brought down partly on the basis of forecasts which have been hopelessly wrong ? | |||
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" No… there are certain factors that are now having to be taken into account 1) this winter… so far… thankfully… has been one of the mildest on record, which means we have used a lot less gas, therefore the pressure and demand hasn’t been so high … therefore gas prices have come down Because haven’t used as much gas.. the subsidy hasn’t needed to be as high! 2) what all of “1” has allowed countries to do is stockpile and create time for further planning to ween themselves of russian gas 3) truss problem wasn’t what she wanted to give away in the gas package… it was all the other giveaways she was giving to her friends whilst telling everyone else to tighten their belts! 4) economy growing in the last quarter… even the report credit that to a World Cup bounce they didn’t think their would be… I mean who thought people might for example buy a new tv, or order more takeout or heaven forbid spend money on alcohol!!! Posts like the op really annoy me in fact they don’t actually read any of the reports and twist some news to suit their narrative Don't be annoyed Fabio, it was just a question! But don't you think it was troubling that a PM was brought down partly on the basis of forecasts which have been hopelessly wrong ? " did she ever say what her forecast was? | |||
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" Don't be annoyed Fabio, it was just a question! But don't you think it was troubling that a PM was brought down partly on the basis of forecasts which have been hopelessly wrong ? " No… because the OBR rightly do their forecasts based on an average.. in which this case was winter weather conditions and what that would do for both the demand and price of gas If you were being churlish damn the met office and their winter forecast… I mean how did they not see this coming in July and August! We got lucky… so far… that is why instead of having to pay the moon and the stars, we are now back to pre Ukraine price…. But that price is still about 4-5 times higher than where it was the year before! And there is a rather lengthy time lag in the market (no so much in the Uk because the tories made the decision years back to knock down all the old LFG backup storage facilities!… argument for another day!) | |||
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"OBR, Bank of England and WEF are the problem " Why? What do they have to do with the market reaction to the price they will lend to the Government after it decides to reduce revenue and increase spending? | |||
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"OBR, Bank of England and WEF are the problem " No…. In this case it’s actually the government’s long term energy strategy that is the problem… and it goes back to one of the things I said in 1…. The UK has no strategic LFG facilities to store the stuff So in the uk they have to buy in gas roughly a year ahead (you know… contracted supplies) And this is where a perverse thing happens…. Because a lot of European countries (EU) made decisions to not always trust the Russians, or they thought they didn’t want to be caught short so to speak… they do have facilities to store LFG, what they are doing is in effect buying what they need to top up what they already have in reserve It does 2 things… 1) not so time lagged because they are only buying what they need to top up… rather than the uk where in effect they are speculating 2) if Europe has a mild winter, they don’t need as much gas to top up, price will drop… if Europe has a cold snap.. they will need more, price will go up! You could say the uk energy price cap is very much based on European weather patterns | |||
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"The OBR and the Bank of England both have shocking records at predicting or anticipating anything. " Did you predict one of the mildest winters on record? Can you accurately predict what the weather is going to be like 4 weeks from today? I won’t hold you to it.. but take a stab! | |||
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"The OBR and the Bank of England both have shocking records at predicting or anticipating anything. " yes and no. Having read some papers both realise they can't moke definite forecasts. They work with scenarios and ranges. And a shed load if caveats However what gets reported is a single number. And worse, this gets translated into a more digestable headline. It's like a model saying "51pf chance of Brazil winning the WC if neyamr stays fit" being translated to Brazil favourites... And then saying the model is wrong when Argentina win. Even more so if neymar was also injured. Now... BoE may still be terrible at making predictions. But it's not as easy as looking at a few cases with hindsight. | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return??" There is no right or wrong with economics. It’s normally what is the least worse option or the best way to do something. The problem with the Truss ‘economic event’ that you can all see on mortgages and stocks etc. is that the very right wing orthodoxy of the IEA was going to be implemented. The ideas are very different to Johnson’s and Sunaks. That’s not a bad thing. The issue came with the speed that Truss and Kwartang went at. Thatcher took around four to five years to re position the economic plan and policy, with lots of pain on the way, Truss was trying to reset in a year to two years. That spooked the market and ended her. That and her total inability to communicate strength. The problem with the NHS tracks back to Brown and Osborne and chronic short term planning. The problem with fuel is that political ideology of most conservatives rejects intervention. Google Hayek and Keynes for more on the debate x | |||
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"The OBR and the Bank of England both have shocking records at predicting or anticipating anything. " They are both aware that their data is not "correct" because they are dealing with something unbelievably complex i.e. the effect on the UK economy of every single thing happening in the world. Think about that. However, it is the best information available. Being a few percent out on that level of complexity is substantially better than just making up what you want, which is what Truss and Kwatang did. | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return?? There is no right or wrong with economics. It’s normally what is the least worse option or the best way to do something. The problem with the Truss ‘economic event’ that you can all see on mortgages and stocks etc. is that the very right wing orthodoxy of the IEA was going to be implemented. The ideas are very different to Johnson’s and Sunaks. That’s not a bad thing. The issue came with the speed that Truss and Kwartang went at. Thatcher took around four to five years to re position the economic plan and policy, with lots of pain on the way, Truss was trying to reset in a year to two years. That spooked the market and ended her. That and her total inability to communicate strength. The problem with the NHS tracks back to Brown and Osborne and chronic short term planning. The problem with fuel is that political ideology of most conservatives rejects intervention. Google Hayek and Keynes for more on the debate x " It's not just that. They said that they did not want to have any economic modelling from the OBR. They were just going to use their own (secret) figures and that they wouldn't need any publicly available modelling in the future. Basically, they said trust us, we're just going to try a massive experiment with the UK economy on advice from our chums but we won't sharing any data. Amazingly, nobody trusted them, particularly those who they wanted to borrow money from who tend to like a bit of predictability... | |||
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"The OBR and the Bank of England both have shocking records at predicting or anticipating anything. Did you predict one of the mildest winters on record? Can you accurately predict what the weather is going to be like 4 weeks from today? I won’t hold you to it.. but take a stab! " Exactly this 
European countries were getting temperatures in the high teens over Christmas and New Year when they should have been in minus figures.
How much gas has this saved. Hardly predictable. | |||
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"The OBR and the Bank of England both have shocking records at predicting or anticipating anything. They are both aware that their data is not "correct" because they are dealing with something unbelievably complex i.e. the effect on the UK economy of every single thing happening in the world. Think about that. However, it is the best information available. Being a few percent out on that level of complexity is substantially better than just making up what you want, which is what Truss and Kwatang did." But the OBR is always wrong, look at its record. In what other field would such an organisation be treated as credible ? To return to the OP, Truss and Kwarteng were lambasted for ignoring a body with an awful record whose short term predictions have again been hopeless. Just maybe they were right and the high tax austerity policies of Hunt and Sunak (popular with the financial markets who will not suffer from them) are the big mistake? I think that's a reasonable question to ask. | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return?? There is no right or wrong with economics. It’s normally what is the least worse option or the best way to do something. The problem with the Truss ‘economic event’ that you can all see on mortgages and stocks etc. is that the very right wing orthodoxy of the IEA was going to be implemented. The ideas are very different to Johnson’s and Sunaks. That’s not a bad thing. The issue came with the speed that Truss and Kwartang went at. Thatcher took around four to five years to re position the economic plan and policy, with lots of pain on the way, Truss was trying to reset in a year to two years. That spooked the market and ended her. That and her total inability to communicate strength. The problem with the NHS tracks back to Brown and Osborne and chronic short term planning. The problem with fuel is that political ideology of most conservatives rejects intervention. Google Hayek and Keynes for more on the debate x " Excellent comment, thanks. | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return??" No, she was wrong | |||
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"The OBR and the Bank of England both have shocking records at predicting or anticipating anything. They are both aware that their data is not "correct" because they are dealing with something unbelievably complex i.e. the effect on the UK economy of every single thing happening in the world. Think about that. However, it is the best information available. Being a few percent out on that level of complexity is substantially better than just making up what you want, which is what Truss and Kwatang did. But the OBR is always wrong, look at its record. In what other field would such an organisation be treated as credible ? To return to the OP, Truss and Kwarteng were lambasted for ignoring a body with an awful record whose short term predictions have again been hopeless. Just maybe they were right and the high tax austerity policies of Hunt and Sunak (popular with the financial markets who will not suffer from them) are the big mistake? I think that's a reasonable question to ask." Most scientists and engineers are always wrong but getting as close as possible. Perfect never happens. That's why cars break down. The OBR and Bank of England record is not "awful". What do you actually base your assertion on? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/63588631 How would you like the Government to work out the most likely economic situation in the future and the most likely outcome of its actions? How did Truss and Kwateng make their predictions? Crystal ball, cocaine, do you have any idea? The fact that their policies were crap does not make Sunak and Hunt's good. They are crap but better. They also had to be harsher than they might otherwise have been to overcompensate for the f**k up that preceded it. | |||
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"The OBR and the Bank of England both have shocking records at predicting or anticipating anything. They are both aware that their data is not "correct" because they are dealing with something unbelievably complex i.e. the effect on the UK economy of every single thing happening in the world. Think about that. However, it is the best information available. Being a few percent out on that level of complexity is substantially better than just making up what you want, which is what Truss and Kwatang did. But the OBR is always wrong, look at its record. In what other field would such an organisation be treated as credible ? To return to the OP, Truss and Kwarteng were lambasted for ignoring a body with an awful record whose short term predictions have again been hopeless. Just maybe they were right and the high tax austerity policies of Hunt and Sunak (popular with the financial markets who will not suffer from them) are the big mistake? I think that's a reasonable question to ask." again, truss made no forecasts herself. For all we know she was flying blind. We need to judge ppl by the quality of their decision making. Not the outcomes. However she seemed to have little quality outside tufton, and minford. I don't think she was outed because of her energy subsidies. But let's say she tahybwas part of it. If we only use outcomes to judge, then yes, it was wrong to out her for that. But then she was right to be outed for the markt turmoil that followed. No ifs, no buts. | |||
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"Also I have this idea that it was Truss who as a minister was responsible for the abandonment of our last LFG storage…does anyone know?" Andrea Leadsom was Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, I believe. | |||
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"Also I have this idea that it was Truss who as a minister was responsible for the abandonment of our last LFG storage…does anyone know? Andrea Leadsom was Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, I believe." Damn…I was hoping I could blame Truss for that too  | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return??" No, she was proved to be wrong | |||
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"No. She's now even more deluded..blaming the left wing like the IMF " This a regular theme now. No responsibility for any negative outcomes because every single one is due to someone else. | |||
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"I may have said this earlier. I cba to check. Her fuel policy wasn't the biggest of issues people had. So it's a minor "told you so" at best. If you measure yourself by outcomes, then you win on fuel prices, but have yo accept a big loss on interest rates. It rather snacks of "when I'm right, it's because I'm good, and when I'm wrong, it's because I'm unlucky that the commie bastard free markets are conspiring against me" " “Commie bastard free markets” | |||
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"Johnson was a sock puppet with the hand of whoever his latest financial rescuer was shoved up his arse (inc the Russians). Truss was a marionette who was too thick to see the strings that bound her! Sunak I just don’t know yet but he appears very weak which can only mean he is indebted to someone!" I dunno,I think Sunak is alot smarter and ruthless than he's led us to believe. You don't get to where he is without it..that and a fuck load of family money and influence  | |||
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"Johnson was a sock puppet with the hand of whoever his latest financial rescuer was shoved up his arse (inc the Russians). Truss was a marionette who was too thick to see the strings that bound her! Sunak I just don’t know yet but he appears very weak which can only mean he is indebted to someone! I dunno,I think Sunak is alot smarter and ruthless than he's led us to believe. You don't get to where he is without it..that and a fuck load of family money and influence "Oh no doubt he is clever. Streets ahead of Truss (wouldn’t be hard, a donut would be cleverer than Truss...then again Johnson!) Ruthless perhaps but only to a point. His behaviour to date displays someone who is indebted. To who I don’t know but I suspect he had to make some deals to get the premiership. | |||
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"Johnson was a sock puppet with the hand of whoever his latest financial rescuer was shoved up his arse (inc the Russians). Truss was a marionette who was too thick to see the strings that bound her! Sunak I just don’t know yet but he appears very weak which can only mean he is indebted to someone! I dunno,I think Sunak is alot smarter and ruthless than he's led us to believe. You don't get to where he is without it..that and a fuck load of family money and influence
Oh no doubt he is clever. Streets ahead of Truss (wouldn’t be hard, a donut would be cleverer than Truss...then again Johnson!)
Ruthless perhaps but only to a point. His behaviour to date displays someone who is indebted. To who I don’t know but I suspect he had to make some deals to get the premiership. "He is politically weak within the party. He's not strongly anything so has no powerbase within the party. He also inherited the position of leader so no mandate. Everything that he does will be contested internally. He has free reign economically to correct the Truss disaster, but even there the demands for tax cuts (which a significant contributor to the market reaction) still remain. His poll ratings are also pretty dire, in part because he cannot kill scandals (Zahawi and Raab and probably Braverman) in a way that other leaders would have. | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return??" They will never do that. The tories are not tories, they are lib dems. They hate tax cuts. There's hardly a true conservative left in the government. | |||
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" The tories are not tories, they are lib dems. " They definitely are Tories. | |||
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"So the Govts energy subsidies will likely total 2-3 billion rather than the 10 billion forecast by Office for Budget Responsibility. Only 8 billion out ! And inflation looks to drop sharply too while the economy actually grew in the last quarter. Truss was defenestrated for ignoring the OBR and proposing tax cuts which the financial markets decided were not affordable. Turns out they probably were affordable after all and she was right to bypass the always wrong OBR. With Sunak and his tax rises polling even worse than Liz, should the Tories admit she was right after all and beg her to return?? They will never do that. The tories are not tories, they are lib dems. They hate tax cuts. There's hardly a true conservative left in the government. " I don't think that you understand what you are writing. The OBR provides a range of forecasts. They are based on the circumstances at the time, which includes the cost of Government borrowing which you may be aware has changed somewhat... However, I'm sure you can explain all of that, right? | |||
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"No. She's now even more deluded..blaming the left wing like the IMF This a regular theme now. No responsibility for any negative outcomes because every single one is due to someone else." Which makes the new Zealand Prime minister stand out... as she said she's now too tired to do the job properly.. | |||
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" The tories are not tories, they are lib dems. They definitely are Tories. " They have increased tax,wrecked the economy, expanded the state sector and failed to protect our borders. In what possible world are they Tories? What have they conserved? Nothing. | |||
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" The tories are not tories, they are lib dems. They definitely are Tories. They have increased tax,wrecked the economy, expanded the state sector and failed to protect our borders. In what possible world are they Tories? What have they conserved? Nothing." Standard Tories. I think you're getting confused with "conserve", and "conservatives", one is a jam, and one is the self serving narcissistic ruling political party. | |||
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"To convince her public she is right I think Liz should do a tour of local radio stations to get her point across "Oh God yes. Her last tour of them was hilarious. | |||
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