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Beginning of the end?

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

So could this be the very beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine.

So yesterday the Russians stuck to their promise to turn the gas pipeline back on even though many thought this wouldn't happen. Today a deal has been signed between Ukraine and Russia with the support of Turkey to start exporting great again. There seems to be some hope and I know there is a long way to go but is this the light at the end of the tunnel?

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By *heNerdyFembyWoman
over a year ago

Eastbourne (she/they)

Honestly with how Putin is, I will believe it when I see it

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"Honestly with how Putin is, I will believe it when I see it"

Well he stuck to the promise about the gas Pipeline even thoughe had made threats previously to keep it shut off.

The deal for the grain has been signed but yes we need to see action. I'm just very much hoping this is a glimmer of hope.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"So could this be the very beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine.

So yesterday the Russians stuck to their promise to turn the gas pipeline back on even though many thought this wouldn't happen. Today a deal has been signed between Ukraine and Russia with the support of Turkey to start exporting great again. There seems to be some hope and I know there is a long way to go but is this the light at the end of the tunnel?"

I hope so, it is small steps but in the right direction

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"So could this be the very beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine.

So yesterday the Russians stuck to their promise to turn the gas pipeline back on even though many thought this wouldn't happen. Today a deal has been signed between Ukraine and Russia with the support of Turkey to start exporting great again. There seems to be some hope and I know there is a long way to go but is this the light at the end of the tunnel?

I hope so, it is small steps but in the right direction "

That is my thinking, We have no idea what deals are being done between Ukraine and Russia but I'm assuming something else must be happening behind the scenes. It's definitely a sign that negotiations are possible As there has been a halt in this for quite some time. I'm possibly clutching it straws though.

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By *irldnCouple
over a year ago

Brighton

If this all comes good I wonder how long the oil and gas markets will be able to string out the artificially high prices and keep fleecing consumers?

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By *ealthy_and_HungMan
over a year ago

Princes Risborough, Luasanne, Alderney

great .... western european governments can restart the financing of the russian invasion of ukraine again. back to square one. in reality this will prolong war.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"If this all comes good I wonder how long the oil and gas markets will be able to string out the artificially high prices and keep fleecing consumers?"

Well the grain prices have fallen for the first time since the beginning of the war after the signing of the new deal. Again I'm probably just being very optimistic but hopefully the same will happen with the oil and petrol prices did very briefly come down last week.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"great .... western european governments can restart the financing of the russian invasion of ukraine again. back to square one. in reality this will prolong war. "

Possibly however the alternative is major food shortages Particularly in the developing world. It's not ideal but surely it's a start, I haven't read the deal but I'm assuming Ukraine must benefiting from this in some way otherwise they wouldn't have agreed.

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By *ealthy_and_HungMan
over a year ago

Princes Risborough, Luasanne, Alderney

it will mean grain for guns basically. yes, the grain shipments will help a little with the famine in africa ... however, the re-opening of the nordstream pipline to allow reduced flow of gas, in reality, means the western european governments re-financing putins war which will prolong conflict.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I just can't see Putin pulling out. At best, I can see a new sort of cold war in Ukraine. Possibly a new iron curtain, with Russia holding onto what they'ce already taken.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"I just can't see Putin pulling out. At best, I can see a new sort of cold war in Ukraine. Possibly a new iron curtain, with Russia holding onto what they'ce already taken."

That's what I think we're leading to but hopefully without as much bloodshed as there is now. It's not ideal but I can't see many other ways out of this now. Maybe when a predecessor takes over like a new Gorbachev.

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By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago

Longridge


"So could this be the very beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine.

So yesterday the Russians stuck to their promise to turn the gas pipeline back on even though many thought this wouldn't happen. Today a deal has been signed between Ukraine and Russia with the support of Turkey to start exporting great again. There seems to be some hope and I know there is a long way to go but is this the light at the end of the tunnel?"

Actually - No..

Russia did put Nord-Stream back on - but with 40% less gas flow than what the EU needs to stock up for Winter.

This is an issue, they are biding time to screw it down hard, in the middle of Winter. So tickedy-boo for now then when it's cold, the suffering starts.

While today, the UK has 'stupidly' announced to the World including Russia that the shortfall will be made up with Norwegian gas transported to the EU via the UK who have applied for emergency permission to increase pressure in the line by 35% above its specification. Instead of quietly increasing flow via here, no, big public announcements.

This means the EU are now topping up for Winter via the UK. Apart from keeping it quiet, now Russia know what we are up to, they'll respond by further clamping down as - they do not want the EU with reserves for Winter. We are doing this as we rely on EU's storage being full as we pull gas in during tines of need because our Gas companies decided at time of demand was best and dismantled our iwn storage.

As for the grain. The deal was NOT signed between Russia and Ukraine. They were not even in the same room. Turkeye signed the deal with Ukraine for them to remove the mines, then Turkeye signed another deal with Russia to allow shipping through and promise not to take military advantage and use it to enter Southern Ukrainian ports.

It is by far from over...

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By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago

Longridge

Didn't Russia say talk of invading Ukraine was "Western hysteria" in February.

It's a game, don't fall for it. Everything Russia does is brinkmanship.

I wouldn't be surprised if it's a ploy to clear shipping lanes.

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By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago

Longridge

Lithuania has lifted a ban on the rail transport of sanctioned goods in and out of the Russian area of Kaliningrad.

There you go.

"Release the grain and we'll tell Lithuania to open the tracks again. That was the sweetener in the deal."

At least Russia can resume moving Nukes to its ship yard again.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"So could this be the very beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine.

So yesterday the Russians stuck to their promise to turn the gas pipeline back on even though many thought this wouldn't happen. Today a deal has been signed between Ukraine and Russia with the support of Turkey to start exporting great again. There seems to be some hope and I know there is a long way to go but is this the light at the end of the tunnel?

Actually - No..

Russia did put Nord-Stream back on - but with 40% less gas flow than what the EU needs to stock up for Winter.

This is an issue, they are biding time to screw it down hard, in the middle of Winter. So tickedy-boo for now then when it's cold, the suffering starts.

While today, the UK has 'stupidly' announced to the World including Russia that the shortfall will be made up with Norwegian gas transported to the EU via the UK who have applied for emergency permission to increase pressure in the line by 35% above its specification. Instead of quietly increasing flow via here, no, big public announcements.

This means the EU are now topping up for Winter via the UK. Apart from keeping it quiet, now Russia know what we are up to, they'll respond by further clamping down as - they do not want the EU with reserves for Winter. We are doing this as we rely on EU's storage being full as we pull gas in during tines of need because our Gas companies decided at time of demand was best and dismantled our iwn storage.

As for the grain. The deal was NOT signed between Russia and Ukraine. They were not even in the same room. Turkeye signed the deal with Ukraine for them to remove the mines, then Turkeye signed another deal with Russia to allow shipping through and promise not to take military advantage and use it to enter Southern Ukrainian ports.

It is by far from over..."

OK your last bit is not true they wear in the same room just not sat at the same table. They signed mirror agreements which were exactly the same with Turkey and the UN saying they would help facilitate what was in the agreement. I never said this was over I just said that finally an agreement of some description has been agreed and surely this is a very small step in right direction.

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By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago

Longridge

Time will tell..

But after the tings I've seen the last 40 years of Russia, I wouldn't trust the bustard as far as I could throw him. Not sure of your age as one of blocked the other over comments made over COVID.

His aims are far bigger than a chuck of Ukraine. Plus, his thumbs are screwed over the economy, is it not logical to try and hold a trump card - Gas.

In the room or not, I read they weren't as they wouldn't speak directly - either way, they didn't negotiate as the big hand shake some are making out.

It was only 3 days ago, Russia said they'll push in further.

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By *oubleswing2019Man
over a year ago

Colchester

The restricted flow/volume is a very clear signal to the recipients to "remember who is the boss, here".

Is further proof, if any were needed, that gas is being used as a tool for leverage.

Which further supports Mr Funboy's belief that this leverage will be made more acute come the winter months, when its impact will be more severe.

If you hold an ace card, it'd be foolish not to use it from time to time.

And herein lies another dilemma.

Gas flow has to be paid for. The payment of which will add to the coffers of a country conducting a state-sponsored invasion of another sovereign nation.

The choice is clear then.

Stay warm and safe, whilst sponsoring the purchase of ordinance to be used against innocent men, women and children by blowing them to oblivion, or sit at home and freeze.

Allowing grain exports is a manifestly good thing, especially for critically-dependent nations starving in Africa.

My only concern is that the easier access in and out of the Black Sea will be exploited by Russian Subs, which could covertly move in to position to support a later offensive in the year against southern Ukrainian ports, like Odessa for example.

Because if I was Putin, that's exactly what I would do. Get my toys in to position for games later in the year.

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By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago

Longridge

[Removed by poster at 23/07/22 09:37:05]

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By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago

Longridge

The double edge sword on the grain is a grave concern. Putin would have been told, you allow a third of the planet to starve, you can forget Russian influences.

I just hope Ukraine has a Plan B.

To possibly save your families lives this Winter, choose one family dwelling for all of you to go to and get yourself and keep to one side, a portable Calor Gas heater and a 15kg bottle as I fear you may need it.

I have LPG cylinders on stand-by since March and a boiler conversion kit. When (if) it happens, I can set boiler to hear one single room while powering house from Batteries or Generator. I also have a Calor heater available.

People must start planning as your government is lame and incapable. It might not happen but if it does, what you going to do on winter when everybody's trying to buy one?

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By *ealthy_and_HungMan
over a year ago

Princes Risborough, Luasanne, Alderney

so now the russians have started to bomb the grain port. there is no light at the end of the tunnel and this is NOT the begining of the end.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"so now the russians have started to bomb the grain port. there is no light at the end of the tunnel and this is NOT the begining of the end. "

I can't see that being reported anywhere. I've just had a look and the only report I can see of a grain port being bombed was in March.

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By *ealthy_and_HungMan
over a year ago

Princes Risborough, Luasanne, Alderney


"so now the russians have started to bomb the grain port. there is no light at the end of the tunnel and this is NOT the begining of the end.

I can't see that being reported anywhere. I've just had a look and the only report I can see of a grain port being bombed was in March. "

here....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jul/23/russia-ukraine-war-kharkiv-hit-by-several-powerful-strikes-says-mayor-lithuania-lifts-kaliningrad-rail-ban-live

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By *izandpaulCouple
over a year ago

merseyside


"So could this be the very beginning of the end of the war in Ukraine.

So yesterday the Russians stuck to their promise to turn the gas pipeline back on even though many thought this wouldn't happen. Today a deal has been signed between Ukraine and Russia with the support of Turkey to start exporting great again. There seems to be some hope and I know there is a long way to go but is this the light at the end of the tunnel?"

Would like to think so but there are so many ways it could go wrong but fingers crossed let's hope any grain harvesting, transportation, ships leaving port etc etc all go without too much skulduggery.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

It should never have come to war in the first place. Not half enough done in diplomatic circles beforehand

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By *rFunBoyMan
over a year ago

Longridge


"so now the russians have started to bomb the grain port. there is no light at the end of the tunnel and this is NOT the begining of the end.

I can't see that being reported anywhere. I've just had a look and the only report I can see of a grain port being bombed was in March.

here....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/jul/23/russia-ukraine-war-kharkiv-hit-by-several-powerful-strikes-says-mayor-lithuania-lifts-kaliningrad-rail-ban-live"

Yes, this is correct. Russia missle attacked Odesa this morning. Sheer and utter contempt for the agreement, lives and global food supply.

It's a affront..

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By *olly_chromaticTV/TS
over a year ago

Stockport


"It should never have come to war in the first place. Not half enough done in diplomatic circles beforehand "

Unfortunately diplomatic talks would not have helped in the slightest. Russia has not the slightest interest in any form of negotiation about this, and never has done.

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By *ovebjsMan
over a year ago

Bristol


"It should never have come to war in the first place. Not half enough done in diplomatic circles beforehand

Unfortunately diplomatic talks would not have helped in the slightest. Russia has not the slightest interest in any form of negotiation about this, and never has done. "

Just like every other terrorist regime they will not negotiate

All they see are the old days of the ussr but as usual it’s only the ones when have the greatest wealth see it that way.

Putin and his like will never stop they will just consolidate regroup and move again Bacau’s let that’s all they understand.

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By *ealthy_and_HungMan
over a year ago

Princes Risborough, Luasanne, Alderney


"It should never have come to war in the first place. Not half enough done in diplomatic circles beforehand

Unfortunately diplomatic talks would not have helped in the slightest. Russia has not the slightest interest in any form of negotiation about this, and never has done. "

correct ... russia is completely self sufficient .... if ever a nation was living off grid, it's them

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