FabSwingers.com forum: The power of ten percent...

By *ANWIDGES OP Couple
over a year ago

DONCASTER

The power of ten percent is all it takes to change popular opinion...

For example, if you round up one hundred people and convince only ten that Fab Swingers is the best swinging site on the internet, that's all it takes to unbalance the scales...

Fab swingers then becomes the best swinging site on the internet...and that's a fact.

What do you think...?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Do you have any statistics in percentage terms to back up your theory?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

99% of statistics are untrue fact

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

I'd like to know the source material of the research, as social influence and psychology are 2 of my fields.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

67% of statistics are made up on the spot

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I can understand the theory.

10% have strong views, 90% don't have any views, a fair few of the 90% will be happy that someone has helped them with an opinion. So maybe we now have 30% with a view, and some of the renaming 70% will worry that they are have the wrong view, so also change view, so maybe up to 50-60% and so it goes until you get to the last 30% who out of principle who don't follow popular views or have their own view which is different. Can I have my Degree now.

Just look at opinion polls, those who have a good grasp of things can see the flaws in practically every poll

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By *waymanMan
over a year ago

newcastle

"The power of ten percent is all it takes to change popular opinion...

For example, if you round up one hundred people and convince only ten that Fab Swingers is the best swinging site on the internet, that's all it takes to unbalance the scales...

Fab swingers then becomes the best swinging site on the internet...and that's a fact.

What do you think...?

Sounds like a really badly understood version of marginal voting theory.

If you limit the number of choices, and if individual preferences are distributed evenly across those choices, as in an opinion poll or a parliamentary election in a marginal seat, then it only takes a small change in perceptions to decide victory.

BUT, knowing who will change their vote, and what will make them change their vote, is really difficult. hence the huge amount of money thrown at polling experts by political parties...

It does also mean that if you live in a safe seat your vote is worth shit, frankly....

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Ten % off shoes is good

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

"Ten % off shoes is good

I'd go for that one! I'm with Imelda Marcos on the need for shoes, but don't have her old budget.

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By *ophieslutTV/TS
over a year ago

Central

Sounds like a really badly understood version of marginal voting theory.

I just don't know where the poster derived his/her material from, whether it's from one of the popular management books doing the rounds, or from reliable Psychological research. It may, of course, be from your voting theory... but the poster was light on sources.

Any theory of this type needs qualified research"

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By *aceytopWoman
over a year ago

from a town near you

is there a shoe sale on

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Hope so

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By *odareyouMan
over a year ago

not far from iceland,,,,,, tescos is nearer though :-) (near leeds)

Men always add 10% ..

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Years ago a woman came to my door, she was doing a poll on 'Whiskas' cat food.. she asked if I would take part, I said yes, she took my details, thanked me and started to walk away.... I was like..

" aren't you going to ask me my preference?"

and she said no

something about they only ask the actual question to every so many people on the list

I didn't really understand...still don't lol!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

" aren't you going to ask me my preference?"

and she said no

something about they only ask the actual question to every so many people on the list

I didn't really understand...still don't lol!"

That's cos they only ask 8 out of 10 households

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Years ago a woman came to my door, she was doing a poll on 'Whiskas' cat food.. she asked if I would take part, I said yes, she took my details, thanked me and started to walk away.... I was like..

" aren't you going to ask me my preference?"

It was probably a poll about how many people will take polls.

and she said no

something about they only ask the actual question to every so many people on the list

I didn't really understand...still don't lol!"

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By *waymanMan
over a year ago

newcastle

"Years ago a woman came to my door, she was doing a poll on 'Whiskas' cat food.. she asked if I would take part, I said yes, she took my details, thanked me and started to walk away.... I was like..

" aren't you going to ask me my preference?"

and she said no

something about they only ask the actual question to every so many people on the list

I didn't really understand...still don't lol!"

Something you told her meant that you were in a segment of the required weighted sample where they were already over quota.

They need X% people 21-30, X%31-40 and so on.

It's wasteful to do the full survey with people from an age group (or other identifying characteristic) where they've already got all the people they need.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Something you told her .... "

Oh right thanks

Do you think it was when I said I didn't have a cat?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Something you told her ....

Oh right thanks

Do you think it was when I said I didn't have a cat?"

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

56% of people are good at maths the other 48% aren't

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By *waymanMan
over a year ago

newcastle

Something you told her ....

Oh right thanks

Do you think it was when I said I didn't have a cat?"

Quite possibly...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

To paraphrase Phil Ochs...

Liberals..10% to the left of centre in good times. 10% to the right of centre if it affects them personally.

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By *ANWIDGES OP Couple
over a year ago

DONCASTER

"Do you have any statistics in percentage terms to back up your theory?

Taken from Cosmo, not that i read Cosmo but it's an interesting article...

We’ve all heard the phrase ‘weight of popular opinion’ but how does this opinion gain its mass in the first place? Today, with the power of TV, radio and internet social networks, a new belief is a relatively easy seed to sow, but to propagate that belief so it grows to become a consensus seems an almost impossible task.

If a population contains 60million individuals, what percentage would you have to convince to tip the balance? If an idea were a tangible object that you could pick up and place on a set of scales, logic would suggest that they would only tip when you reach a figure of more than half the population. But it turns out that reality is a little stranger than that.

Scientists at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in New York have found that, for a belief to conquer a population, you only need to convince ten per cent of the people. The researchers ran computer models that simulated the adoption of an idea and found that, as long as the number of people holding a minority opinion stays below ten per cent, it would take longer than the age of the universe for that group to become the majority. But, once the minority opinion passes that magical ten per cent take-up, it becomes an unstoppable train to consensus city.

To test the theory, the researchers developed computer models of various social networks. One had each member connected to every other member. The second network had only a small number of opinion leaders connected to a large group and, in the last network, every member had the same number of connections. Each network was set up to hold an existing, traditional opinion – every member held that opinion but was open minded to other views. With networks in place, the researchers then added in some ‘true believers’ –members with radical opinions, who believed one thing and were unshakable in that belief. As the ‘true believers’ began to interact with ‘traditional ideas holders’, the tide of opinion gradually – and then very swiftly – began to shift.

The basis of the model was that people don’t like to hold an unpopular opinion and usually want to reach a consensus with their peers. When a person talks to someone with the same opinion as themselves, the conversation reinforces their belief. But, if they talk with someone who holds a different opinion, they consider the argument and then pop off to talk to someone else about it. If the next person they talk to also holds the different opinion, then the listener will adopt that belief.

The research found that, as long the percentage of new opinion holders remains below ten per cent, not much changes. But, once that magic ten per cent is passed, the new opinion swiftly conquers the population.

This pattern might help explain how a rational population can come to adopt an irrational idea and fall victim to mass hysteria. It could also help explain how an idea that has spent decades – or even centuries – festering as the minority opinion can suddenly gain enough momentum to challenge and topple the status quo.

The researchers cite the recent events in Tunisia and Egypt (above) – where dictators who held power for decades were suddenly toppled from power – as examples that seem to exhibit the same pattern.

The paper appears in the journal Physical Review E – and its authors are looking for historical examples to support their research.

8/1/11

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