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"What makes me laugh is Dave reckons we wont be able to get any deals or the ones we get will take years. Is he not the one who has to make these deals. Thought he was great at that according to himself" Let's remember what David Cameron said himself at the start of this referendum debate a couple of weeks ago, he said.... "Britain is a great country and will succeed what ever it does". So I take it he thinks Britain will succeed if we Leave the EU. As Boris said earlier, leaving the EU is a win win situation for Britain. | |||
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"What makes me laugh is Dave reckons we wont be able to get any deals or the ones we get will take years. Is he not the one who has to make these deals. Thought he was great at that according to himself Let's remember what David Cameron said himself at the start of this referendum debate a couple of weeks ago, he said.... "Britain is a great country and will succeed what ever it does". So I take it he thinks Britain will succeed if we Leave the EU. As Boris said earlier, leaving the EU is a win win situation for Britain. " But why and where's the figures that show financially we will not suffer. The recent studies are suggesting over 3 million people will be at risk of losing their jobs if we go, what security cos we offer them because it that's the case I will definitely be voting stay rather than see 3 million working people suffer. | |||
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"Mayor of London Boris Johnson has said leaving the EU is a "win-win for all of us", urging those backing exit to "hold our nerve and vote for freedom". Speaking in a factory in Kent, Mr Johnson said the EU was an anachronism which "costs us a huge amount of money and subverts our democracy". He insisted there were no downsides from leaving the EU, joking the "only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Meanwhile, Tony Blair has urged pro-EU campaigners to "show more passion". so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer " Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() | |||
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"What makes me laugh is Dave reckons we wont be able to get any deals or the ones we get will take years. Is he not the one who has to make these deals. Thought he was great at that according to himself Let's remember what David Cameron said himself at the start of this referendum debate a couple of weeks ago, he said.... "Britain is a great country and will succeed what ever it does". So I take it he thinks Britain will succeed if we Leave the EU. As Boris said earlier, leaving the EU is a win win situation for Britain. But why and where's the figures that show financially we will not suffer. The recent studies are suggesting over 3 million people will be at risk of losing their jobs if we go, what security cos we offer them because it that's the case I will definitely be voting stay rather than see 3 million working people suffer. " I know a bunch of people in this region that would lose their jobs straight away. Yes they can "just get another job", or move to London, or whatever else is suggested but life is not as simple as that. That's not necessarily a reason to vote to stay in, but it should be taken into consideration and not just dismissed out of hand the way it has been thus far by all of project leave. | |||
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"Mayor of London Boris Johnson has said leaving the EU is a "win-win for all of us", urging those backing exit to "hold our nerve and vote for freedom". Speaking in a factory in Kent, Mr Johnson said the EU was an anachronism which "costs us a huge amount of money and subverts our democracy". He insisted there were no downsides from leaving the EU, joking the "only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Meanwhile, Tony Blair has urged pro-EU campaigners to "show more passion". so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() Boris, the mayor of London. One of the biggest political laughing stocks in the country. I've not seen any common sense answers from either side that can clearly state any useful facts. In fact both are playing it like Donald Trump, all slogans and catchphrases and no real meat to the argument. No wonder most of the population can't decide when we still don't know any real facts! | |||
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"What makes me laugh is Dave reckons we wont be able to get any deals or the ones we get will take years. Is he not the one who has to make these deals. Thought he was great at that according to himself Let's remember what David Cameron said himself at the start of this referendum debate a couple of weeks ago, he said.... "Britain is a great country and will succeed what ever it does". So I take it he thinks Britain will succeed if we Leave the EU. As Boris said earlier, leaving the EU is a win win situation for Britain. But why and where's the figures that show financially we will not suffer. The recent studies are suggesting over 3 million people will be at risk of losing their jobs if we go, what security cos we offer them because it that's the case I will definitely be voting stay rather than see 3 million working people suffer. " The figures show the Eurozone is in decline and is projected to continue to decline in future. So why would we want to tie ourselves to that in any way shape or form. The former governor of the bank of England Mervyn King said on the Andrew Marr show last Sunday the Euro zone is doomed to failure. We'd be much better off getting out of the EU and making our own trade deals with the growth economies in the world. The EU is an old, tired, out of date analogue union for the 20th century not fit for purpose in the modern world. We are now in the 21st century, digital age and a global economy. The EU is going in the wrong direction and is being left behind. The EU is a social, political and economic experiment gone horribly wrong. With Turkey now blackmailing the EU for accelerated access it will be much worse once they join on all levels social, economic and political. This is a once in a lifetime chance for us to reclaim our sovereignty and grab freedom. Like Boris said earlier we must grab it with both hands. | |||
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"Boris is a clever politician who has both eyes on his own political position above all else. This thread is evidence that people are falling for it, hook, line and sinker. ![]() Agreed. Boris is using the euro referendum to position himself to be the next PM. | |||
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"I read and heard the same thing about the euro zone. But what is going to secure those 3 million jobs? I agree on the sovereignty issue, no union like this should get to over rule our own democratic process but what about the jobs, what is going to happen to our economy if we leave? " Well nothing will change on June 24th or indeed over the following months. Personally I believe our economic size and our still substantial global influence plus our revived membership of the WTO will make sure we are at least no worse off in trade deals with the EU or anyone else. Indeed the Lisbon Treaty of the EU forbids the EU from discriminating against a Nation should it leave. It is worth Googling the 'Most Favoured Nation Status' (MFN) of the WTO as Forum rules forbid a link. MFN is so important that it is the first article of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which governs trade in goods. MFN is also a priority in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) (Article 2) and the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) (Article 4). All a bit technical but basically they forbid discrimination. What we already have in place must be maintained basically. As for those 3 million jobs can I help? The BBC is (for a change) running a good 'Is it true' Thread on its News Website. On the '3 million at risk' quote (and remember this is what Clegg used to peddle as well) they said: "Is he suggesting that all those jobs would cease to exist if we were to stop trading with the EU (although nobody is suggesting that would happen if we left the EU)? Also, as we have mentioned before, the methodology is a bit suspect. The Treasury worked out what proportion of the country's total economic output is made up of exports to the EU. Then it calculated that proportion of the UK labour force. And that's the answer!" http://bbc.in/1SFlEWV And in fairness it also debunks the way the IDS was also exaggerating the amount we pay into the EU. which annoys me as the amount we DO pay (£276 Million a week) doesn't need exaggerating. But such is Westminster politics. The 'Out' mob must NOT be drawn into a scare race to the bottom. | |||
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"I read and heard the same thing about the euro zone. But what is going to secure those 3 million jobs? I agree on the sovereignty issue, no union like this should get to over rule our own democratic process but what about the jobs, what is going to happen to our economy if we leave? Well nothing will change on June 24th or indeed over the following months. Personally I believe our economic size and our still substantial global influence plus our revived membership of the WTO will make sure we are at least no worse off in trade deals with the EU or anyone else. Indeed the Lisbon Treaty of the EU forbids the EU from discriminating against a Nation should it leave. It is worth Googling the 'Most Favoured Nation Status' (MFN) of the WTO as Forum rules forbid a link. MFN is so important that it is the first article of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which governs trade in goods. MFN is also a priority in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) (Article 2) and the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) (Article 4). All a bit technical but basically they forbid discrimination. What we already have in place must be maintained basically. As for those 3 million jobs can I help? The BBC is (for a change) running a good 'Is it true' Thread on its News Website. On the '3 million at risk' quote (and remember this is what Clegg used to peddle as well) they said: "Is he suggesting that all those jobs would cease to exist if we were to stop trading with the EU (although nobody is suggesting that would happen if we left the EU)? Also, as we have mentioned before, the methodology is a bit suspect. The Treasury worked out what proportion of the country's total economic output is made up of exports to the EU. Then it calculated that proportion of the UK labour force. And that's the answer!" http://bbc.in/1SFlEWV And in fairness it also debunks the way the IDS was also exaggerating the amount we pay into the EU. which annoys me as the amount we DO pay (£276 Million a week) doesn't need exaggerating. But such is Westminster politics. The 'Out' mob must NOT be drawn into a scare race to the bottom." That's not a bad answer , but not a patch on mine ![]() | |||
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"Boris is a clever politician who has both eyes on his own political position above all else. This thread is evidence that people are falling for it, hook, line and sinker. ![]() . If he was that clever I hardly think he'd be hanging everything on a referendum that's not that clear he's going to win!. Dave's going in 4 years anyhow, if his only ambition was PM, then in four years time he'd be pretty nailed on for the job anyhow if he just towed the official line | |||
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" That's not a bad answer , but not a patch on mine " I know. I must use fewer words ... ![]() | |||
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"Could any of the fear mongers tell me why the EU would refuse to do a deal with the UK if we exit the EU? The UK is a big market for the EU and the EU would suffer if they imposed tariffs on the UK. In addition the EU has free trade deals with numerous countries on the continent of Europe have you not heard of EFTA, the European Free Trade Association, Bafta, the Baltic Free Trade Area, CEFTA, Central Europe Free Trade Agreement. There is also the CISFTA, Commonwealth of Independent States Free Trade Area and the EEA Eurasian Economic Union possibly more controversial organisations but they show that the trend is towards free trade rather than restrictive trade agreements. If the government cannot negotiate trade agreements with our neighbours in this day and age they are not fit to govern. The EU is holding the UK back as we are not allowed to negotiate our own trade agreements whilst in the EU. All the signs show that after we exit the EU the UK will prosper as a nation that trades with the world " Can you tell us why they would if they can get the same products to almost the same quality else where? I am very much on the fence at min and guess I'm waiting for some more cold hard facts because at min it's just about who can shout the loudest. | |||
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"I read and heard the same thing about the euro zone. But what is going to secure those 3 million jobs? I agree on the sovereignty issue, no union like this should get to over rule our own democratic process but what about the jobs, what is going to happen to our economy if we leave? Well nothing will change on June 24th or indeed over the following months. Personally I believe our economic size and our still substantial global influence plus our revived membership of the WTO will make sure we are at least no worse off in trade deals with the EU or anyone else. Indeed the Lisbon Treaty of the EU forbids the EU from discriminating against a Nation should it leave. It is worth Googling the 'Most Favoured Nation Status' (MFN) of the WTO as Forum rules forbid a link. MFN is so important that it is the first article of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which governs trade in goods. MFN is also a priority in the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) (Article 2) and the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) (Article 4). All a bit technical but basically they forbid discrimination. What we already have in place must be maintained basically. As for those 3 million jobs can I help? The BBC is (for a change) running a good 'Is it true' Thread on its News Website. On the '3 million at risk' quote (and remember this is what Clegg used to peddle as well) they said: "Is he suggesting that all those jobs would cease to exist if we were to stop trading with the EU (although nobody is suggesting that would happen if we left the EU)? Also, as we have mentioned before, the methodology is a bit suspect. The Treasury worked out what proportion of the country's total economic output is made up of exports to the EU. Then it calculated that proportion of the UK labour force. And that's the answer!" http://bbc.in/1SFlEWV And in fairness it also debunks the way the IDS was also exaggerating the amount we pay into the EU. which annoys me as the amount we DO pay (£276 Million a week) doesn't need exaggerating. But such is Westminster politics. The 'Out' mob must NOT be drawn into a scare race to the bottom." Nice one, shall go through all this for my reading tonight! Nice to get a reasoned post not just shout shout shout! (yes I know it's Friday but the joys of been a single dad mean that's my idea of a fun Friday night lol) | |||
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"Could any of the fear mongers tell me why the EU would refuse to do a deal with the UK if we exit the EU? The UK is a big market for the EU and the EU would suffer if they imposed tariffs on the UK. In addition the EU has free trade deals with numerous countries on the continent of Europe have you not heard of EFTA, the European Free Trade Association, Bafta, the Baltic Free Trade Area, CEFTA, Central Europe Free Trade Agreement. There is also the CISFTA, Commonwealth of Independent States Free Trade Area and the EEA Eurasian Economic Union possibly more controversial organisations but they show that the trend is towards free trade rather than restrictive trade agreements. If the government cannot negotiate trade agreements with our neighbours in this day and age they are not fit to govern. The EU is holding the UK back as we are not allowed to negotiate our own trade agreements whilst in the EU. All the signs show that after we exit the EU the UK will prosper as a nation that trades with the world Can you tell us why they would if they can get the same products to almost the same quality else where? I am very much on the fence at min and guess I'm waiting for some more cold hard facts because at min it's just about who can shout the loudest. " Stop worrying about the trivial stuff . Focus on what's important . The fact that Boris is funny should be reason enough to vote out ![]() | |||
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"Boris is a clever politician who has both eyes on his own political position above all else. This thread is evidence that people are falling for it, hook, line and sinker. ![]() That reflects my views on all the 'personalities' involved. I think because being 'Out' is basically against Government policy those who are for Brexit are committing career suicide if we vote to stay in. Now that may be reason to vote 'In' (but seriously) you have to respect someone doing just that and take what they say is said out of belief and conviction. And conversely you could say those supporting Cameron are doing it for less trustworthy reasons. It is safe win or lose because they can blame Cameron and it will be a good career move if they win as there will be a few vacancies about post an 'In' vote ... | |||
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"Nick Clegg quoted the figure but it was first stated by South Bank University and then verified by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Nothing says these will all go but what if they do, what can be done to ensure that this isnt the case? " . You seem to want alot of guarantees...I can't help you on that front as I'm still working on my time machine in the shed. Nobody knows the future, we might go tits up on our own, we might go tits up in the EU, we might be OK but the EU might go tits up.. If China goes tits up, we all go tits up anyhow. There are more questions than answers | |||
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"Nick Clegg quoted the figure but it was first stated by South Bank University and then verified by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Nothing says these will all go but what if they do, what can be done to ensure that this isnt the case? . You seem to want alot of guarantees...I can't help you on that front as I'm still working on my time machine in the shed. Nobody knows the future, we might go tits up on our own, we might go tits up in the EU, we might be OK but the EU might go tits up.. If China goes tits up, we all go tits up anyhow. There are more questions than answers" I don't want guarantees, I just worry for the working family who's already stretched to the limit thanks to these tory fuck wits. | |||
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"Nick Clegg quoted the figure but it was first stated by South Bank University and then verified by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Nothing says these will all go but what if they do, what can be done to ensure that this isnt the case? . You seem to want alot of guarantees...I can't help you on that front as I'm still working on my time machine in the shed. Nobody knows the future, we might go tits up on our own, we might go tits up in the EU, we might be OK but the EU might go tits up.. If China goes tits up, we all go tits up anyhow. There are more questions than answers I don't want guarantees, I just worry for the working family who's already stretched to the limit thanks to these tory fuck wits. " . But the Tory fuckwits are pro EU, they took you into the EU, they signed for freedom of movement, freedom of capitol, they signed most of the trade agreements.. Your pro EU but your anti the party that gave it you!. | |||
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"Could any of the fear mongers tell me why the EU would refuse to do a deal with the UK if we exit the EU? The UK is a big market for the EU and the EU would suffer if they imposed tariffs on the UK. In addition the EU has free trade deals with numerous countries on the continent of Europe have you not heard of EFTA, the European Free Trade Association, Bafta, the Baltic Free Trade Area, CEFTA, Central Europe Free Trade Agreement. There is also the CISFTA, Commonwealth of Independent States Free Trade Area and the EEA Eurasian Economic Union possibly more controversial organisations but they show that the trend is towards free trade rather than restrictive trade agreements. If the government cannot negotiate trade agreements with our neighbours in this day and age they are not fit to govern. The EU is holding the UK back as we are not allowed to negotiate our own trade agreements whilst in the EU. All the signs show that after we exit the EU the UK will prosper as a nation that trades with the world Can you tell us why they would if they can get the same products to almost the same quality else where? I am very much on the fence at min and guess I'm waiting for some more cold hard facts because at min it's just about who can shout the loudest. " One of the issues is; The " out" side tell us that the UK has one of the largest economies ; so others will want to trade with us; However, the overall size of the economy of the EU is approximately 10 times that of UK alone: So we get, nowadays, the majority of our trade from being a large economy within a much larger one; Once we leave the EU , we cease to be of interest to the larger global traders; Who will prefer to trade with the EU economy, rather than the UK one. The list of global trade associations above is true; but they already trade with the EU; they will be far less interested in trading with the UK alone, and in setting up new 121 agreements with the U.K. And if the UK is supposed to be so strong, and powerful, then why is it not stronger within the EU? Why isn't it controlling the EU with its strong economy? Because our politicians over many years, have failed to actually engage with the EU properly; have sat on the sidelines, whining that it's " not fair" instead of going in and gripping it. If we can't make ourselves have the sort of influence in the EU as we think we should, how on earth does anyone believe that we can have any influence on the world at large? " Special relationship" with the US? It doesn't exist; the US let us believe it during WW2 and the Cold War , because they needed us to be a big aircraft carrier; and we supported Bush and co and gave their middle east wars some credibility; but the US State Deoartment has publicly said that ye UK no longer has any special interest for the US. It just makes me want to weep when I watch the UK casting itself adrift from its only hope of survival. | |||
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"I'd love to see some actual economic facts about it. How many jobs will it cost us losing the trade agreements and vice versa, what kind of trade agreements are we going to put in place to ensure we don't lose out in the single market and can still compete. I don't see it effecting our financial industries too much but what about manufacturing. We can't keep up with the Chinese as it is, is this going to enable us to move closer to them or will the duties we have to pay to transport goods across Europe mean costs go up forcing our manufacturers even further in to oblivion. And just one discussion with someone in the real world without immigration been mentioned would be wonderful!! " Relaxed (m) replying to this 1 I still have an appartment in Switzerland, speak fluent Swiss German, Italian and French and listen to what the Swiss, French and Italians are thinking of Brexit. And the answer is simple: "If they go we want to go (French and Italians). The Swiss if they go great as means more free trade." All this humbug about Brexit will be the end of the world (sorry no relationship with the film) is financed by Brussels. The UK delivers 23% of GDP to the EU and is (depending on exchange rates) 2nd or 3rd biggest payee to the budget of the EU; so no wonder it is the "end". But to be honest in the past 20 years the UK has found other "business partners" and now exports more then 55% to of countries outside of the EU. Drop the red tape of the EU and the UK export industry can export to further countries at prices which Germany can not delivery. Most Italians are fed up with the EU and wish nothing more to do their own exit as it would benefit their exports to countries in South America and the USA. The EU depends on imports and they would be cutting themselves if they leverage 10% plus on taxes as in the end they would be paying for them..... Or do you think the owners of BMW would support taxation of mini's and Bentley's of 10% plus, or Airbus on wings and engines, or VW on RR's, the list is endless. The world has grown and sadly politics have not and most MP's are still "playing" in a big sandbox. | |||
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"Nick Clegg quoted the figure but it was first stated by South Bank University and then verified by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Nothing says these will all go but what if they do, what can be done to ensure that this isnt the case? . You seem to want alot of guarantees...I can't help you on that front as I'm still working on my time machine in the shed. Nobody knows the future, we might go tits up on our own, we might go tits up in the EU, we might be OK but the EU might go tits up.. If China goes tits up, we all go tits up anyhow. There are more questions than answers I don't want guarantees, I just worry for the working family who's already stretched to the limit thanks to these tory fuck wits. . But the Tory fuckwits are pro EU, they took you into the EU, they signed for freedom of movement, freedom of capitol, they signed most of the trade agreements.. Your pro EU but your anti the party that gave it you!. " I'm not pro EU actually but neither am I anti-EU if you read what I put so far you would get that. | |||
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" But the Tory fuckwits are pro EU, they took you into the EU, they signed for freedom of movement, freedom of capitol, they signed most of the trade agreements.. Your pro EU but your anti the party that gave it you!" I wondered when the Tories would get the blame ... Forgive me mentioning it but Freedom of Movement was written into the very first Treaty of Rome. So it was US the UK voter who 'took us in' not Heath's Government in '73. The EEC we joined was some 9 Nation states of similar economic advancement and stature. It was a Labour Government that recommended we remain in in '75 and we the voter agreed. The Single European Act of 1987 needed no Referendum as it advanced the reduction of trade barriers and a Customs Union. The EEC became the EC when 12 nations signed the Maastricht treaty in 1993 and actually opened up the borders to free trade and a Customs Union. The Tory Government negotiated opt outs from that Treaty: * Schengen Agreement * Economic and Monetary Union * Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union * Area of freedom, security and justice And then we come to the Lisbon Treaty of 2009. Signed by a Labour PM Gordon Brown which did away with the trade concepts of the EEC and EC and put in place the European Union and all that has followed. We were promised a referendum but Brown reneged and had it ratified in the UK Parliament before losing the 2010 election. BASTARD! This monstrosity has grown from 6 founding nations to 9 in 1973, 12 by 1986 and 15 by 1995. All in a trading arrangement. The big change came in 2004 when Malta and Cyprus and 8 East European States joined and Blair opened up our borders to them all while the rest of the EU closed theirs for 7 years. Hence our migration problems. A further three Eastern European States joined since 2005 when Labour repeated the same mistake. And it viscously closed down any objection by calling people 'racists' to ram the myth of 'multi-culturalism' down our throats. In summary for 36 years from 1973 we had a trade deal and it massively grew the member states trade and GDP no question. In the 7 years since 2009 and Lisbon it has fallen apart because of the political dreams and ambitions of a few unelected Socialists in Europe. Blame many people but on this the Tories really do have clean hands ... Until now. ![]() | |||
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"You can blame the Tories or you can blame labour. If we stay in around 10-20 years time the only government we will have to blame is the one in Brussels. The EU is an autocratic despotic state, wanting more integration, until we or it becomes the United states of Europe. There will be no uk, no France, everyone will just be a 'European'. This is far more important than domestic politics and 'celebritie politicians'. Not interested in who says what. I made my mind up years ago! I certainly never voted for integration into the Europe we have." Brilliant post. Summed it all up perfectly. ![]() ![]() ![]() | |||
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"so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer " Tony wants a future in the EU Boris wants an out vote to negotiate terms to stay in the EU So back either to stay in, and maybe Nigle to leave (though that won't happen). | |||
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"Just saw it on sky news another high profile member of the Tory party, Syed Kamall MEP who is the leader of the Conservative party in the European parliament has just come out to back vote Leave and he says Britain will be better off outside of the EU as the EU is not reformed and David Cameron failed to deliver any meaningful reform for Britain in his sham renegotiation deal. " So? Have you even heard of him before? Why do you think he's more trustworthy than any on the stay campaign? My dad thinks we should leave too but I don't see people caring about that. | |||
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"so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer Tony wants a future in the EU Boris wants an out vote to negotiate terms to stay in the EU So back either to stay in, and maybe Nigle to leave (though that won't happen)." Michael Gove and Iain Duncan Smith don't want to negotiate terms to stay in the EU so they may have something to say to Boris about that. | |||
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"Just saw it on sky news another high profile member of the Tory party, Syed Kamall MEP who is the leader of the Conservative party in the European parliament has just come out to back vote Leave and he says Britain will be better off outside of the EU as the EU is not reformed and David Cameron failed to deliver any meaningful reform for Britain in his sham renegotiation deal. So? Have you even heard of him before? Why do you think he's more trustworthy than any on the stay campaign? My dad thinks we should leave too but I don't see people caring about that." Well considering he's and MEP and he'll be out of a job if Britain leaves the EU, i think that makes him trustworthy yes. Why would he campaign for vote Leave to make himself unemployed if he did'nt genuinely believe it was the best move for Britain as a whole. | |||
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"I'm not going to be voting because of some pompous, self-aggrandising clown either way. I seek facts, some educated opinion and rely on my own judgement. Unlike many with straight-jacketted mindsets, I'm happy to vote either way. If you're someone who won't budge and will cradle in opinions that support your biased viewpoint, blinkered from sophistication, you could challenge yourself. Have you the wherewithal to do even that? I still need more data and time to take a decision." ![]() ![]() | |||
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"Mayor of London Boris Johnson has said leaving the EU is a "win-win for all of us", urging those backing exit to "hold our nerve and vote for freedom". Speaking in a factory in Kent, Mr Johnson said the EU was an anachronism which "costs us a huge amount of money and subverts our democracy". He insisted there were no downsides from leaving the EU, joking the "only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Meanwhile, Tony Blair has urged pro-EU campaigners to "show more passion". so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() Frankly I wouldn't go along with anything Boris Johnson supported. Who's best interests do you think he cares about? If we leave the EU, workers rights, already eroded, will be removed as quickly as possible. No working hours directive, reduced health and safety and if some of the rabid right get their way, no minimum wage. If some of you think that's a good thing, just wait until it happens to you. | |||
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" If we leave the EU, workers rights, already eroded, will be removed as quickly as possible. No working hours directive, reduced health and safety and if some of the rabid right get their way, no minimum wage. If some of you think that's a good thing, just wait until it happens to you. " Have you ANY proof of ANY of that? * Workers Rights? Care to define which of the following will be 'removed'? a) Health and safety at work: general rights and obligations, workplaces, work equipment, specific risks and vulnerable workers. b) Equal Opportunities for women and men: equal treatment at work, pregnancy, maternity leave, parental leave c) Protection against discrimination: based on sex, race, religion, age, disability and sexual orientation. d) Labour Law: part-time work, fixed-term contracts, working hours, employment of young people, informing and consulting employees. * Working Hours Directive: Tell me how this improved on the good old Offices, Shops and Factories Acts of years gone by. And the word 'Directive' should be a warning. Its Brussels telling some sheep farmer in North Wales he must work the same as a Greek Goat farmer... And I guess you didn't know there are 'derogations' to bypass said 'Directive'? * Reduced Health & Safety: You already mentioned this above.... Well some of us who have had to work with this might think we have too much of it all but again who has said what is already written into our Laws will be repealed? NO ONE! * Minimum Wage: Well yes you are right. The Rabid Right Tories are doing away with the Minimum wage and bringing in the 'Living Wage'. And guess what? In 2015 only 22 out of the 28 in the EU set a 'Minimum Wage'. It has nothing to do with the EU. I am sorry your bit of Project Fear made me laugh .... | |||
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"Isn't the point that Boris knows the No campaign will loose but he's setting himself up for when Cameron retires, in opposition to Osborne who's running the Yes campaign? It's as simple and as cynical as that. " Boris has set himself up in a win- win situation ; Whatever happens, unless it is a resounding " Yes " vote, Cameron is toast . If the Out / No wins, the Boris will be straight in as Tory Leader; if it's a yes vote ,Cameron wil ho anyway, and Botis will get the Conservative Leadership on the basis of " Well I was voting for " Out, but I'll go with " stay" and make sure I look after UKs interests. If you read back Biris's writings, he has actually been a supporter of UK staying in the EU ( though he has critisised the EU). The whole in/ out thing is a Tory party infight, brought on because Cameron had to promise the Referendum to try to grab UKIP votes in the General election, and get the conservative " old buffers" onside too..... | |||
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"Isn't the point that Boris knows the No campaign will loose but he's setting himself up for when Cameron retires, in opposition to Osborne who's running the Yes campaign? It's as simple and as cynical as that. Boris has set himself up in a win- win situation ; Whatever happens, unless it is a resounding " Yes " vote, Cameron is toast . If the Out / No wins, the Boris will be straight in as Tory Leader; if it's a yes vote ,Cameron wil ho anyway, and Botis will get the Conservative Leadership on the basis of " Well I was voting for " Out, but I'll go with " stay" and make sure I look after UKs interests. If you read back Biris's writings, he has actually been a supporter of UK staying in the EU ( though he has critisised the EU). The whole in/ out thing is a Tory party infight, brought on because Cameron had to promise the Referendum to try to grab UKIP votes in the General election, and get the conservative " old buffers" onside too....." ![]() | |||
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" If we leave the EU, workers rights, already eroded, will be removed as quickly as possible. No working hours directive, reduced health and safety and if some of the rabid right get their way, no minimum wage. If some of you think that's a good thing, just wait until it happens to you. Have you ANY proof of ANY of that? * Workers Rights? Care to define which of the following will be 'removed'? a) Health and safety at work: general rights and obligations, workplaces, work equipment, specific risks and vulnerable workers. b) Equal Opportunities for women and men: equal treatment at work, pregnancy, maternity leave, parental leave c) Protection against discrimination: based on sex, race, religion, age, disability and sexual orientation. d) Labour Law: part-time work, fixed-term contracts, working hours, employment of young people, informing and consulting employees. * Working Hours Directive: Tell me how this improved on the good old Offices, Shops and Factories Acts of years gone by. And the word 'Directive' should be a warning. Its Brussels telling some sheep farmer in North Wales he must work the same as a Greek Goat farmer... And I guess you didn't know there are 'derogations' to bypass said 'Directive'? * Reduced Health & Safety: You already mentioned this above.... Well some of us who have had to work with this might think we have too much of it all but again who has said what is already written into our Laws will be repealed? NO ONE! * Minimum Wage: Well yes you are right. The Rabid Right Tories are doing away with the Minimum wage and bringing in the 'Living Wage'. And guess what? In 2015 only 22 out of the 28 in the EU set a 'Minimum Wage'. It has nothing to do with the EU. I am sorry your bit of Project Fear made me laugh ...." Nah, I only post this stuff to wind up people like you. ![]() | |||
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"I actually quite like Boris, but it's the fact people are failing to see what this is all about that astounds me. " "Ohh, he's a legend! Look at his hair!" Have no illusions about the man, he has a mind like a steel trap and would see half of us shot up against a wall. Not to be trusted. | |||
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"I actually quite like Boris, but it's the fact people are failing to see what this is all about that astounds me. "Ohh, he's a legend! Look at his hair!" Have no illusions about the man, he has a mind like a steel trap and would see half of us shot up against a wall. Not to be trusted. " this.. anyone who thinks he is 'honest, trusted' etc maybe wants to familiarise themselves with some of his record as Mayor, his ability to make rules up and ignore long standing constitutions within the GLA is more to do with arrogance than any form of democracy.. Machiavellian most certainly.. | |||
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"I actually quite like Boris, but it's the fact people are failing to see what this is all about that astounds me. "Ohh, he's a legend! Look at his hair!" Have no illusions about the man, he has a mind like a steel trap and would see half of us shot up against a wall. Not to be trusted. " You mean like Tony Blair had Dr David Kelly shot because he was going to blow the whistle on Blair and his lies about the war in Iraq. ![]() | |||
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" The whole in/ out thing is a Tory party infight, brought on because Cameron had to promise the Referendum to try to grab UKIP votes in the General election, and get the conservative " old buffers" onside too....." You do know you just contradicted yourself? If DC had to thwart the UKIP vote what does that tell you? It tells me it is people wanting a referendum. And when people want a referendum on the status quo its because they do not LIKE the status quo and wish to change it. So it is NOT 'just a Tory in-fight' by any means. It was the British people demanding, through the only people with the balls to stand up as a party, the right to vote on the EU. Something we have been denied for 43 years. And by the way DC was right to offer the referendum. UKIP still got nearly 4 Million votes and were the 3rd largest party by vote even AFTER the Tory 'old buffers' were kept onside..... | |||
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"Chickens..? ![]() dohhh you beat me to it | |||
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"Chickens..? ![]() very tidy bedroom by the way ![]() | |||
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"I actually quite like Boris, but it's the fact people are failing to see what this is all about that astounds me. "Ohh, he's a legend! Look at his hair!" Have no illusions about the man, he has a mind like a steel trap and would see half of us shot up against a wall. Not to be trusted. You mean like Tony Blair had Dr David Kelly shot because he was going to blow the whistle on Blair and his lies about the war in Iraq. ![]() Read: The Strange Death of David Kelly by Norman Baker MP, if you want the inside track on conspiracy theories. | |||
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"The BBC copied an interesting survey done by Edinburgh University in countries in the EU. Apparently the Brexit disease is spreading ... There was broad support for the UK remaining in the EU. In Spain, the figure was as high as 81%. The most lukewarm country was France with 56% support. (Spain has a Catalan problem and France is well .. France) Interestingly, many of those interviewed wanted to hold their own referendums. The appetite was strongest in France at 53%. More surprisingly nearly half of those polled in Sweden, Germany and Spain also wanted a vote. If that were to happen a sizeable majority in each of the six countries would vote to stay in the EU but a significant number (33% in France, 37% in Sweden and 27% in Germany) would opt to leave. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35775216" If we the UK vote to leave, we wont be the last, we will be the start of an exit flow for other countries | |||
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"Some interesting points and good reading apart from Rubpoo, obviously everyone makes their own mind up, looks deep into why and how they will vote, they wont follow the direction or advice of one individual or one MP This thread was started so anyone could express their individual views and some have done that very well ofcourse you do get the odd one or two who cannot debate without using fowl language but we all tend to ignore these comments and it shows the education and ignorance of those who again chose to use fowl language. As for the others who put time and thought into what they say; its appreciated, and again good reading ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | |||
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"Isn't the point that Boris knows the No campaign will loose but he's setting himself up for when Cameron retires, in opposition to Osborne who's running the Yes campaign? It's as simple and as cynical as that. " Perhaps Cameron and Boris are in it together, Cameron planned it and asked Boris to run the exit campaign to convince everyone to stay in UK think about it all you see is not crystal clear think about it again you thought yet or still lost in the clouds ![]() | |||
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" The recent studies are suggesting over 3 million people will be at risk of losing their jobs if we go, what security cos we offer them because it that's the case I will definitely be voting stay rather than see 3 million working people suffer. " But the problem is that there ARE NO RECENT STUDIES, What there are are a load of politicians throwing crap and beer mat statistics all around...on both sides! The trade deals we have already with the EU market benefit the rest of Europe to the benefit of tens of billions every year (our trade deficit...this at least is check able by anyone). Therefore as I see it there is no way on Earth that the rest of the EU will do anything to damage that. The trade will continue exactly as is...can't see Germany and France cutting their own economic throats in a fit of spite! It simply will not happen! These are just simple statements of logic. Not scaremongering with figures plucked out of thin air or scribbled on the back of cig give packets! | |||
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"Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() Typical Brexit response. Full of opinionated emotion. Completely unable to engage in any facts. | |||
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"I actually quite like Boris, but it's the fact people are failing to see what this is all about that astounds me. "Ohh, he's a legend! Look at his hair!" Have no illusions about the man, he has a mind like a steel trap and would see half of us shot up against a wall. Not to be trusted. " ![]() ![]() ![]() | |||
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"It would be great if we stopped the unnecessary attacks and insults upon other Fab users. I realise this is an important topic and I've been happy to slur Boris, at least. But it's saddening to see attacks on others here." this.. | |||
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"What makes me laugh is Dave reckons we wont be able to get any deals or the ones we get will take years. Is he not the one who has to make these deals. Thought he was great at that according to himself Let's remember what David Cameron said himself at the start of this referendum debate a couple of weeks ago, he said.... "Britain is a great country and will succeed what ever it does". So I take it he thinks Britain will succeed if we Leave the EU. As Boris said earlier, leaving the EU is a win win situation for Britain. But why and where's the figures that show financially we will not suffer. The recent studies are suggesting over 3 million people will be at risk of losing their jobs if we go, what security cos we offer them because it that's the case I will definitely be voting stay rather than see 3 million working people suffer. " The recent 'studies' were no more than using the proportion of business done with the EU as a whole as a percentage of jobs. The fact is that, whatever way the vote goes, things will still carry on. The pro EU lobby also said we would lose millions of jobs if we didn't join the Euro, and produced the 'evidence and research' to back it up at the time... when the reverse actually happened. 2 days ago, they were saying that house prices would be hit if we exit.... today a house of commons report has said that house prices will fall as a result of extra stamp duty put on by George Osborne, due to come into effect in the next couple of months. Both sides are all smoke and mirrors, although from what I've heard and read, the out campaign does seem to have more substance. The biggest problem, of course, with all the doomsayers and scaremongering about a brexit, is that if we vote to leave, how can they then turn round and say.. 'don't worry chaps, it's nothing to worry about'? | |||
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"What makes me laugh is Dave reckons we wont be able to get any deals or the ones we get will take years. Is he not the one who has to make these deals. Thought he was great at that according to himself Let's remember what David Cameron said himself at the start of this referendum debate a couple of weeks ago, he said.... "Britain is a great country and will succeed what ever it does". So I take it he thinks Britain will succeed if we Leave the EU. As Boris said earlier, leaving the EU is a win win situation for Britain. But why and where's the figures that show financially we will not suffer. The recent studies are suggesting over 3 million people will be at risk of losing their jobs if we go, what security cos we offer them because it that's the case I will definitely be voting stay rather than see 3 million working people suffer. I know a bunch of people in this region that would lose their jobs straight away. Yes they can "just get another job", or move to London, or whatever else is suggested but life is not as simple as that. That's not necessarily a reason to vote to stay in, but it should be taken into consideration and not just dismissed out of hand the way it has been thus far by all of project leave. " What jobs? And how do you know? | |||
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"What makes me laugh is Dave reckons we wont be able to get any deals or the ones we get will take years. Is he not the one who has to make these deals. Thought he was great at that according to himself Let's remember what David Cameron said himself at the start of this referendum debate a couple of weeks ago, he said.... "Britain is a great country and will succeed what ever it does". So I take it he thinks Britain will succeed if we Leave the EU. As Boris said earlier, leaving the EU is a win win situation for Britain. But why and where's the figures that show financially we will not suffer. The recent studies are suggesting over 3 million people will be at risk of losing their jobs if we go, what security cos we offer them because it that's the case I will definitely be voting stay rather than see 3 million working people suffer. I know a bunch of people in this region that would lose their jobs straight away. Yes they can "just get another job", or move to London, or whatever else is suggested but life is not as simple as that. That's not necessarily a reason to vote to stay in, but it should be taken into consideration and not just dismissed out of hand the way it has been thus far by all of project leave. What jobs? And how do you know?" How do I know? Because they work for EU funded programmes, projects and investment funds. Most of which are coming to an end in 2016 and the new streams would have been coming online in 2017. Clearly that isn't happening if we leave the EU. As well as the projects and businesses being supported by said funding which now won't be able to expand and create jobs, and the knock on effects for the wider supply chain. You think an equivalent amount of funding will come back to the regions? Will it shite. As I said, not a reason for people to choose to leave or stay but jobs will be lost and frankly are very unlikely to be replaced anywhere outside London. | |||
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"It's a wonder how difficult it's been for David Cameron to get a "decent deal" to keep us in the EU, because apparently those self-same countries will be falling over themselves to offer us the moon on a stick when we leave. The nativity of some people is truly astonishing." ![]() ![]() | |||
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"What exactly has offended you most about me that you choose to single me out for ridicule? The fact I swear or the fact I think most of the EU debate is being conducted by morons? " What you don't seem to realise is that the 'morons' are not deciding which way to vote on the basis of personalities. 'Tony or Boris' etc are just ways of starting a thread/debate. Give people a bit more credit. | |||
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"What exactly has offended you most about me that you choose to single me out for ridicule? The fact I swear or the fact I think most of the EU debate is being conducted by morons? What you don't seem to realise is that the 'morons' are not deciding which way to vote on the basis of personalities. 'Tony or Boris' etc are just ways of starting a thread/debate. Give people a bit more credit." You have more faith in the state of the electorate than I do. It's not this thread, it's the state of most stories in the press. Most of the news items. It's being reduced to being about party politics and personalities and it shouldn't be. And yes, people who make their decision without actually researching the implications of that decision are morons. | |||
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"Isn't the point that Boris knows the No campaign will loose but he's setting himself up for when Cameron retires, in opposition to Osborne who's running the Yes campaign? It's as simple and as cynical as that. " Spot on this is the launch of his bid for the leadership. If the NO campaign looses he still keeps the support of the far right old boy network Torys. IF they win Cameron may have to stand down and Boris will force a leadership contest. For once Little Dave needs us lefties ![]() | |||
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" How do I know? Because they work for EU funded programmes, projects and investment funds. Most of which are coming to an end in 2016 and the new streams would have been coming online in 2017. Clearly that isn't happening if we leave the EU " So where do you think all this 'EU funding' you mention comes from. Its just the EU giving us back some of the money we already pay in. The numbers are of the order of some £13 Billion we pay in after we take out our rebate and then the EU kindly sends money to do projects like you mention. So personally I would rather NOT send the EU our £13 Billion and then decide what is important for US to spend OUR money on. | |||
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"There was some misleading stuff higher up trying to persuade us that most favoured nation (MFN) status under WTO arrangements would protect us from discrimination and from other countries imposing higher tariffs. That's either an attempt to mislead you or people don't understand what the WTO does and are deluding themselves. Being in a recognised regional grouping like the EU allows us to have much better terms (no import/export duties) than MFN . Dropping into MFN status doesn't mean that the UK suddenly would get some incredibly good deal - far from it, it would force many countries, not just in the EU, to charge us higher rates of duty and vice versa increasing the costs of imported goods and the prices of our exports, making British exporters less able to compete. "In the first instance, if the UK left the EU and did not negotiate a regional free trade agreement with the EU, it would acquire by virtue of its membership of the WTO the status of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) with the EU. In accordance with the rules of the WTO trading system, and especially the rules of equal treatment, the EU would then be obliged to impose the same tariffs under the same conditions as all the other countries that enjoyed MFN status. That would include tariffs on a wide range of industrial goods. Britain would not even qualify for reduced tariffs under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP). Currently, in trading with the rest of the world, Britain as an EU Member State benefits from tariff concessions negotiated by the EU. The differential rates it enjoys discriminate against parties which do not have trade agreements with the EU, but this is permitted under the rules concerning regional trade agreements. On leaving the EU, Britain would lose the protection of these rules, and be faced with MFN tariffs. The EU would have no choice in this. It must obey WTO rules. It must be understood that this means the restoration of the status quo before the change, arising from the withdrawal of concessions specific to regional trade agreement membership. That is permitted. Perversely, if Britain sought to retaliate, the WTO's rules on equal treatment, and thus the prohibition of discrimination, would kick in. Tariffs imposed by the UK on goods from EU member states would have to be applied to similar goods from all other countries with which it did not have formal trade agreements. A duty on cars from the EU, for instance, would have to be matched by the same levy on cars from all other trading partners, including Japan and Korea. This cannot even be by-passed by imposing discriminatory domestic taxes, as indicated currently by action being taken against Brazil, where WTO proceedings are being initiated after a special tax was levied on imported cars. Then, on the other hand, if the UK decided to remove tariffs from EU products, it must do the same with all other WTO members." If you want to check this, it's all quoted from a considered analysis of what would happen produced by the Leave Alliance's "Flexcit" report." No one is misleading anyone so please stop that line of debate. We really don't need it. And you have used this tactic before and 'quoted' from this 'Flexcit' document. What you do is take an excerpt from one of the many scenarios discussed (note discussed) and then represent that as the 'Leave' campaigns position. It is no such thing. It is not good debate to select a few paragraphs from a 400+ page document prepared by some very knowledgeable people. | |||
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" How do I know? Because they work for EU funded programmes, projects and investment funds. Most of which are coming to an end in 2016 and the new streams would have been coming online in 2017. Clearly that isn't happening if we leave the EU. As well as the projects and businesses being supported by said funding which now won't be able to expand and create jobs, and the knock on effects for the wider supply chain. You think an equivalent amount of funding will come back to the regions? Will it shite. As I said, not a reason for people to choose to leave or stay but jobs will be lost and frankly are very unlikely to be replaced anywhere outside London. " ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() | |||
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"There was some misleading stuff higher up trying to persuade us that most favoured nation (MFN) status under WTO arrangements would protect us from discrimination and from other countries imposing higher tariffs. That's either an attempt to mislead you or people don't understand what the WTO does and are deluding themselves. Being in a recognised regional grouping like the EU allows us to have much better terms (no import/export duties) than MFN . Dropping into MFN status doesn't mean that the UK suddenly would get some incredibly good deal - far from it, it would force many countries, not just in the EU, to charge us higher rates of duty and vice versa increasing the costs of imported goods and the prices of our exports, making British exporters less able to compete. "In the first instance, if the UK left the EU and did not negotiate a regional free trade agreement with the EU, it would acquire by virtue of its membership of the WTO the status of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) with the EU. In accordance with the rules of the WTO trading system, and especially the rules of equal treatment, the EU would then be obliged to impose the same tariffs under the same conditions as all the other countries that enjoyed MFN status. That would include tariffs on a wide range of industrial goods. Britain would not even qualify for reduced tariffs under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP). Currently, in trading with the rest of the world, Britain as an EU Member State benefits from tariff concessions negotiated by the EU. The differential rates it enjoys discriminate against parties which do not have trade agreements with the EU, but this is permitted under the rules concerning regional trade agreements. On leaving the EU, Britain would lose the protection of these rules, and be faced with MFN tariffs. The EU would have no choice in this. It must obey WTO rules. It must be understood that this means the restoration of the status quo before the change, arising from the withdrawal of concessions specific to regional trade agreement membership. That is permitted. Perversely, if Britain sought to retaliate, the WTO's rules on equal treatment, and thus the prohibition of discrimination, would kick in. Tariffs imposed by the UK on goods from EU member states would have to be applied to similar goods from all other countries with which it did not have formal trade agreements. A duty on cars from the EU, for instance, would have to be matched by the same levy on cars from all other trading partners, including Japan and Korea. This cannot even be by-passed by imposing discriminatory domestic taxes, as indicated currently by action being taken against Brazil, where WTO proceedings are being initiated after a special tax was levied on imported cars. Then, on the other hand, if the UK decided to remove tariffs from EU products, it must do the same with all other WTO members." If you want to check this, it's all quoted from a considered analysis of what would happen produced by the Leave Alliance's "Flexcit" report. No one is misleading anyone so please stop that line of debate. We really don't need it. And you have used this tactic before and 'quoted' from this 'Flexcit' document. What you do is take an excerpt from one of the many scenarios discussed (note discussed) and then represent that as the 'Leave' campaigns position. It is no such thing. It is not good debate to select a few paragraphs from a 400+ page document prepared by some very knowledgeable people." If you can't be bothered to read the document it's your fault. You are in no way qualified to say what is good debate given your flexible interpretation of the truth and you have absolutely no right to tell people what they can post within the forum rules. If you've got anything valid to come up with as a debating point, please go ahead. | |||
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"I wish people would realise this is not about Boris or Tony or Cameron or anyone. It is about whether we stay or leave the EU. The EU is a political union that we never signed up for. It is the Germany of the War's Europe that we fought to avoid. Don't listen to the 2 sides, do some research about what the EU is and how it strangles this country. It's not about party or personality politics. This is a serious decision to make ![]() Germany have achieved the one state Europe..without firing a shot...but once again a little island is throwing a spanner in the works..again.I've held this view for a long time. | |||
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" If you can't be bothered to read the document it's your fault. You are in no way qualified to say what is good debate given your flexible interpretation of the truth and you have absolutely no right to tell people what they can post within the forum rules. If you've got anything valid to come up with as a debating point, please go ahead." I am as qualified as anyone to object to personal remarks being made by you or anyone else ... And as you have once again turned an excellent and informative discussion into a personal vendetta I am now out of this Thread. | |||
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" What you don't seem to realise is that the 'morons' are not deciding which way to vote on the basis of personalities. 'Tony or Boris' etc are just ways of starting a thread/debate. Give people a bit more credit." EXACTLY and if you read the posts there are some excellent comments well worth reading The reason I started the post wasn't really about Boris or Tony Blaire, it was to read the views of some of the ones posting and there are some quality posting on here we could always start another "kiss; fuck; avoid thread but I will leave these type of threads to the others I presser to read the debates on this type of thread | |||
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" How do I know? Because they work for EU funded programmes, projects and investment funds. Most of which are coming to an end in 2016 and the new streams would have been coming online in 2017. Clearly that isn't happening if we leave the EU So where do you think all this 'EU funding' you mention comes from. Its just the EU giving us back some of the money we already pay in. The numbers are of the order of some £13 Billion we pay in after we take out our rebate and then the EU kindly sends money to do projects like you mention. So personally I would rather NOT send the EU our £13 Billion and then decide what is important for US to spend OUR money on." Yes, thank you I'm well aware where the funding has come from. My point is that there will not be like for like replacement of jobs funding and investment because, as usual, it will be decided that London and the shires are what's important to "us". For a region such as the North East, that will mean we'll get half of fuck all. The money that stays in this country if we leave the EU will be eaten up by the costs of whatever new deals are put in place anyway, and anything left over will not be coming to the north under this govenrment or likely any future labour government that might occur, now the opposition has become as London centric as the best of them. | |||
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" What you don't seem to realise is that the 'morons' are not deciding which way to vote on the basis of personalities. 'Tony or Boris' etc are just ways of starting a thread/debate. Give people a bit more credit. EXACTLY and if you read the posts there are some excellent comments well worth reading The reason I started the post wasn't really about Boris or Tony Blaire, it was to read the views of some of the ones posting and there are some quality posting on here we could always start another "kiss; fuck; avoid thread but I will leave these type of threads to the others I presser to read the debates on this type of thread" As do I, and I've been posting and responding to many of those comments. It's you who is trivialising and mocking. Hardly a quality contribution to the "debate". If the reason you started the post wasn't about Tony vs Boris, why is it called EU - Tony or Boris and discusses exclusively the position of those two politicians? | |||
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" Yes, thank you I'm well aware where the funding has come from. My point is that there will not be like for like replacement of jobs funding and investment because, as usual, it will be decided that London and the shires are what's important to "us". For a region such as the North East, that will mean we'll get half of fuck all. The money that stays in this country if we leave the EU will be eaten up by the costs of whatever new deals are put in place anyway, and anything left over will not be coming to the north under this govenrment or likely any future labour government that might occur, now the opposition has become as London centric as the best of them. " You have made some assumptions there which seem to be based on some idea 'The North' gets nothing. In 2015 Edinburgh, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow and Leeds all had the same or higher growth in jobs advertised as London. Newcastle was behind but better than Southampton. 2014/15 Public Expenditure: £ per head London 9,840 North East 9,347 North West 9,197 West Midlands 8,683 Yorkshire & Humber 8,660 South West 8,295 East Midlands 8,159 East 7,881 South East 7,756 I live in the East so I guess I should feel hard done by? And maybe we should both move to Scotland where some £10,374 is spent per person. 31% more than I get spent on me... But that is another Thread ... But yes London gets a big share but then it has a lot of people in one place. What is clear is that people in the North do very well when the Government invests taxpayer money. And there is no reason to believe this will change especially given the political investment in the Northern Powerhouse concept and devolution to Northern Regions. And are you really saying this country will have its cost of living increased by some £13 Billion a year after a Brexit? That is £3.8 Million per person per week....?? We are building 2 aircraft carriers for £7 Billion. | |||
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"Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() . Yep, it's like those type of people that send a big long PM to you, where they slag you off over something you've put on a thread and then block you, so you can't respond!!. Honestly some grown ups are so childish!!!. ![]() | |||
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"Tony Blair is a cunt. Now what was the question?" . And so is Gordon | |||
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"They're all cunts, so are most people if we're honest but they just don't hold the power to cause as much damage as those cunts we're discussing in here." No, Blair is a cunt and a dick and if it wasn't for his open door policy we wouldn't be having this conversation now. But I'm glad we are so we have the chance to get out. He thought that by allowing people in that Labour would be in power forever. How wrong and thick can you get. | |||
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"Mayor of London Boris Johnson has said leaving the EU is a "win-win for all of us", urging those backing exit to "hold our nerve and vote for freedom". Speaking in a factory in Kent, Mr Johnson said the EU was an anachronism which "costs us a huge amount of money and subverts our democracy". He insisted there were no downsides from leaving the EU, joking the "only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Meanwhile, Tony Blair has urged pro-EU campaigners to "show more passion". so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() It is possible to find the facts but you have to know how to look. A good place to start is on the REMAIN and LEAVE web sites. On both you'll find a campaign section mostly full of very biased articles documents but, if you look towards the end of those documents, you will often find a list of the source documents they have been used to source the data; these source documents are normally fairly unbiased. Also look in government web sites. A good one I have found is Parliament(Dot)uk. And a very good document on there titled 'The economic impact of EU membership on the UK' search for SN06730.pdf (I can provide a link through private message if anyone wants) So, if you want facts not hype from either side, you know what to do. | |||
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" Yes, thank you I'm well aware where the funding has come from. My point is that there will not be like for like replacement of jobs funding and investment because, as usual, it will be decided that London and the shires are what's important to "us". For a region such as the North East, that will mean we'll get half of fuck all. The money that stays in this country if we leave the EU will be eaten up by the costs of whatever new deals are put in place anyway, and anything left over will not be coming to the north under this govenrment or likely any future labour government that might occur, now the opposition has become as London centric as the best of them. You have made some assumptions there which seem to be based on some idea 'The North' gets nothing. In 2015 Edinburgh, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Glasgow and Leeds all had the same or higher growth in jobs advertised as London. Newcastle was behind but better than Southampton. 2014/15 Public Expenditure: £ per head London 9,840 North East 9,347 North West 9,197 West Midlands 8,683 Yorkshire & Humber 8,660 South West 8,295 East Midlands 8,159 East 7,881 South East 7,756 I live in the East so I guess I should feel hard done by? And maybe we should both move to Scotland where some £10,374 is spent per person. 31% more than I get spent on me... But that is another Thread ... But yes London gets a big share but then it has a lot of people in one place. What is clear is that people in the North do very well when the Government invests taxpayer money. And there is no reason to believe this will change especially given the political investment in the Northern Powerhouse concept and devolution to Northern Regions. And are you really saying this country will have its cost of living increased by some £13 Billion a year after a Brexit? That is £3.8 Million per person per week....?? We are building 2 aircraft carriers for £7 Billion." Some people just aren't very good with numbers. £13 billion pounds per year is about £216 per person per year or about £4 per week per person. You couldn't get an Airfix model of an aircraft carrier for that. Should we trust any numbers from the Brexit crew on this basis. I think not. | |||
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" Some people just aren't very good with numbers. £13 billion pounds per year is about £216 per person per year or about £4 per week per person. You couldn't get an Airfix model of an aircraft carrier for that. Should we trust any numbers from the Brexit crew on this basis. I think not." Hook Line Sinker At which point I really must go .... ![]() | |||
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"are you Late for your Saturday evening numeracy class?" Nah .. just thought I'd throw a little something for you to bite on. Play your stupid games for a laugh. ... After all you change so much I thought I'd do the same. I mean like a Million quid wasn't obvious obvious ... ![]() ![]() ![]() | |||
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"are you Late for your Saturday evening numeracy class? Nah .. just thought I'd throw a little something for you to bite on. Play your stupid games for a laugh. ... After all you change so much I thought I'd do the same. I mean like a Million quid wasn't obvious obvious ... ![]() ![]() ![]() Keep wriggling. You're on your own hook. | |||
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"are you Late for your Saturday evening numeracy class? Nah .. just thought I'd throw a little something for you to bite on. Play your stupid games for a laugh. ... After all you change so much I thought I'd do the same. I mean like a Million quid wasn't obvious obvious ... ![]() ![]() ![]() Well we know who makes sense and who talks shite | |||
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"are you Late for your Saturday evening numeracy class? Nah .. just thought I'd throw a little something for you to bite on. Play your stupid games for a laugh. ... After all you change so much I thought I'd do the same. I mean like a Million quid wasn't obvious obvious ... ![]() ![]() ![]() I couldn't agree more if you are saying that we certainly know which Eurosceptic person has just admitted to deliberately fabricating a number to try to trick people on here. If someone comes on here claiming to provide information, it's always worth checking it. In this case a person has admitted to making up a number to try to deceive. That's plain old telling a lie. I was willing to accept it was an arithmetic mistake and incompetence by him in checking his calculations again. But if he says it was made up, then fair enough. Now everyone needs to watch out for the next number he makes up and all the earlier ones. Just a plain old liar at work. Like I say, keep wriggling. | |||
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" Just a plain old liar at work." You have made few contributions to this Thread and in every one you have either called people liars or accused them of 'misleading' people. Which coming from someone who has consistently a) changed other people's words to fabricate a predetermined position and b) spammed Threads to wind certain people up and c) selects particular words from a 400 page document and then makes out that is what is being said by the entire 'Out' campaign is just laughable. You were caught out being a smart arse .. have a smile and jog on .. ![]() | |||
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" Just a plain old liar at work. You have made few contributions to this Thread and in every one you have either called people liars or accused them of 'misleading' people. Which coming from someone who has consistently a) changed other people's words to fabricate a predetermined position and b) spammed Threads to wind certain people up and c) selects particular words from a 400 page document and then makes out that is what is being said by the entire 'Out' campaign is just laughable. You were caught out being a smart arse .. have a smile and jog on .. ![]() You're a self confessed liar. That says it all really. I'm smiling, you don't need to worry about that. | |||
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"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion." Hi Chalk, Back again after a bit of a break. Well done for getting the figures from the ONS website. I appreciate that you are trying to get the facts. There are a few things you are missing though. I've mentioned it to you before several times, but obviously your memory isn't up to much - or maybe it's just subjective. Anyway, you have to remember that the economy of the EU without us is over 5 times bigger than the UK - so a loss of £16bn of exports to us is relatively minor compared to our loss of £10bn of exports to them. Secondly I'd point out that Cameron's deal includes the acceleration of free trade in services within the EU - services being one of the UK's strengths. Once completed it's projected to add 2/3% to the U K economy - something that we could not do via the WTO as services aren't well covered in the WTO. Third, you must not forget Foreign Direct Investment to the UK - £44bn in 2014/15 - most of which would dry up if we were not part of the EU. So overall I'd give you a 7/10 for effort. 3/10 for quality. Still plenty of time for you to get better though. | |||
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"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion. Hi Chalk, Back again after a bit of a break. Well done for getting the figures from the ONS website. I appreciate that you are trying to get the facts. There are a few things you are missing though. I've mentioned it to you before several times, but obviously your memory isn't up to much - or maybe it's just subjective. Anyway, you have to remember that the economy of the EU without us is over 5 times bigger than the UK - so a loss of £16bn of exports to us is relatively minor compared to our loss of £10bn of exports to them. Secondly I'd point out that Cameron's deal includes the acceleration of free trade in services within the EU - services being one of the UK's strengths. Once completed it's projected to add 2/3% to the U K economy - something that we could not do via the WTO as services aren't well covered in the WTO. Third, you must not forget Foreign Direct Investment to the UK - £44bn in 2014/15 - most of which would dry up if we were not part of the EU. So overall I'd give you a 7/10 for effort. 3/10 for quality. Still plenty of time for you to get better though. " . You've got no evidence that most of that 44 billon would dry up, that's just speculation on your part!.... But still carry on lecturing people about speculating by all means. I give you 4 out of 10 for effort | |||
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" . You've got no evidence that most of that 44 billon would dry up, that's just speculation on your part!.... But still carry on lecturing people about speculating by all means. I give you 4 out of 10 for effort" Well, in case you hadn't noticed, it's impossible to give 'evidence' for anything that may (or may not) happen in the future. So no, I have no evidence. Pretty hard to argue that direct foreign investment wouldn't be decimated by leaving the world's largest trading block though. It's great that you have taken in and accepted the other points though. So you won't be posting your misleading 'facts' again then. | |||
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" . You've got no evidence that most of that 44 billon would dry up, that's just speculation on your part!.... But still carry on lecturing people about speculating by all means. I give you 4 out of 10 for effort Well, in case you hadn't noticed, it's impossible to give 'evidence' for anything that may (or may not) happen in the future. So no, I have no evidence. Pretty hard to argue that direct foreign investment wouldn't be decimated by leaving the world's largest trading block though. It's great that you have taken in and accepted the other points though. So you won't be posting your misleading 'facts' again then. " . I don't know I haven't posted anything except that remark about childish people who send you abusive PMS but then block you!. Did you mean that?. Anyhow yes I fully accept the other points. | |||
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"It's not about Tony vs Boris, at least not unless you're an absolute moron who shouldn't be entitled to vote and needs a "personality" to tell them which way too decide. Fucking educate yourselves and decide one way or another because this is important and there's the potential for fuckwits to cock it up for everyone by being too stupid to do a bit of research before making up their minds." This. No one should be making this referendum into a competition of personalities. | |||
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"Alas I was one of those soft pricks that voted to join the eu.It was the worst decision of my life.All I have seen is England is giving billlions of pounds to prop up countries like Greece and such like.I WILL be voting to get out of the EU.The whole system reeks of fiddling on a grand scale.The money we are ploughing into the EU could be better spent on far more urgent things in our own country.The sooner I get the chance to vote,the better I will feel." True but; on a selfish point of view, I may sell up and retire in Spain Have you seen their roads, they have dual carriageways & motorways un-used, roads you can skateboard on as they are so smooth, excellent condition and as im still a biker I think it would be a fantastic place to live with both weather and roads Its a difficult decision but if we do vote to remain, I will indeed be making the most of retirement and enjoying European smooth roads and long motorcycle rides in the warm. All roads in UK are simply a death trap, if not in England, they most certainly are in Scotland, they are not roads I want to ride a £20k+ motorcycle and hit a 8" deep pot hole on a tight corner It would take the UK's contribution of £55 million per day just to get our roads up to a decent and safe standard Anyone that has ridden European roads on a bike will know its like chalk and cheese, amazing quality roads across the water. | |||
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"Alas I was one of those soft pricks that voted to join the eu.It was the worst decision of my life.All I have seen is England is giving billlions of pounds to prop up countries like Greece and such like.I WILL be voting to get out of the EU.The whole system reeks of fiddling on a grand scale.The money we are ploughing into the EU could be better spent on far more urgent things in our own country.The sooner I get the chance to vote,the better I will feel. True but; on a selfish point of view, I may sell up and retire in Spain Have you seen their roads, they have dual carriageways & motorways un-used, roads you can skateboard on as they are so smooth, excellent condition and as im still a biker I think it would be a fantastic place to live with both weather and roads Its a difficult decision but if we do vote to remain, I will indeed be making the most of retirement and enjoying European smooth roads and long motorcycle rides in the warm. All roads in UK are simply a death trap, if not in England, they most certainly are in Scotland, they are not roads I want to ride a £20k+ motorcycle and hit a 8" deep pot hole on a tight corner It would take the UK's contribution of £55 million per day just to get our roads up to a decent and safe standard Anyone that has ridden European roads on a bike will know its like chalk and cheese, amazing quality roads across the water. " The grass isn't always greener on the other side. To be fair Spanish motorways are quite good but you pay through the nose for them (ditto the French) It's now around 70€ each way for a car from the French border to Alicante. On the other side of the coin the often praised (usually by people who have never driven on them) German motorways can be bloody horrible. Try driving on a wet night with no road lights, no cats eyes, and the white lane marking so old and worn out that you can barely make out which lane you are in. That is pretty much the norm in our area. Back to the OP. If I shook hands with Tony fucking Bliar (which I wouldn't) I would feel an instant urge to count my fingers afterwards. | |||
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"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion." Yes it does. However I think that much of the economic argument is a bit of a red herring. The stay campaign would like us to believe that the instant Britain votes to leave, the channel tunnel will be bricked up and all the ports blockaded. It wont and they wont. Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. | |||
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"Since I wrote the last post I came across this from Peter Hitchens and I thought it was very relevant to this thread. "It isn’t about money or about jobs. It’s an instinct and an intuition. It is about that priceless thing, governing yourself, going out if necessary, into the biting cold – rather than staying warm and comfortable by being someone else’s servant or subject. Each of us must decide this for himself or herself. If you need to know what anyone else thinks, then you don’t care enough and you’d be better off remaining the obedient citizen of a subject province that pretends to be an independent kingdom. No wonder this is such a dull campaign." Very true. " Yes, that it a brilliant post. Peter Hitchens well sums up some of the foundations of Brexit argument ie don't try to find out any facts, just make your decision on emotional reactions to things that are not true. Because being part of the EU no more makes us a 'subject province that pretends to be an independent kingdom' than coming out of the EU would make us an independent Kingdom. What does 'governing yourself' mean in the modern world? We are members of NATO: if Russia attacks Turkey, then we are at war. Is that governing yourself? We are signatories to the ECHR - and so we should give votes to criminals. That's nothing to do with the EU, but is that governing yourselves? And being out of the EU and maintaining our trade status. The EU decides as an example to change the size and position of all car headlights. British manufacturers have to comply if they want to carry on selling in Europe, with no say whatever on the rules. Is that 'governing ourselves' And who are 'yourselves'? Is that Scotland, or is it just England. And what has Scotland been doing for the past 300 years? Has England allowed it to be an independent Kingdom? So Peter Hitchens, I think you open far more questions than you give answers. | |||
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" Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. " Ah, the alcohol drinking English, driving their big German cars. Your post though misses what I think is the important point. Even IF what you say is correct, rules are not static. Take glyphosphate as an example - a killer that some say can leave a residue on the food you eat. It's allowed across the EU at the moment. But say after a Brexit the EU bans it, and makes it illegal to sell any produce from plants treated with glyphosphate. If the UK wants to carry on selling produce to the EU, it has to ban it's use too. We have to implement EU rules without ANY say at all. Not even a seat at the table. It's just an example, but for everything we trade we will have to follow EU rules. And Brexiters say that situation gives us MORE independence. I'm afraid they are just not thinking. As someone once wisely said, if you want to trade with the EU, then the EU is the original Hotel California - 'you can check out, but you can never leave' - unless you want to stop trading with them and then really screw up our economy. | |||
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" Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. Ah, the alcohol drinking English, driving their big German cars. Your post though misses what I think is the important point. Even IF what you say is correct, rules are not static. Take glyphosphate as an example - a killer that some say can leave a residue on the food you eat. It's allowed across the EU at the moment. But say after a Brexit the EU bans it, and makes it illegal to sell any produce from plants treated with glyphosphate. If the UK wants to carry on selling produce to the EU, it has to ban it's use too. We have to implement EU rules without ANY say at all. Not even a seat at the table. It's just an example, but for everything we trade we will have to follow EU rules. And Brexiters say that situation gives us MORE independence. I'm afraid they are just not thinking. As someone once wisely said, if you want to trade with the EU, then the EU is the original Hotel California - 'you can check out, but you can never leave' - unless you want to stop trading with them and then really screw up our economy." . No we don't have to ban is use because the EU has banned it, we have to comply with incoming regulations on trade, ie you wouldn't be able to sell plants grown using it!... That's not the same as us having to ban it as well... Personally I think that would be a good thing in this case But that swings booths ways, we too could ban things and the EU would have to comply, so we could ban vw engines for illegalities on emissions!... Or we could ban some of the processes involved in fracking in Lancashire and then total would have to comply with our new regulations. Of course the EU are pretty keen to sign up to the ttip trade deal and that looks likely for companies like total to then be able to sue the UK gov for loss of business if we manage to ban there fracking practise! | |||
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"Mayor of London Boris Johnson has said leaving the EU is a "win-win for all of us", urging those backing exit to "hold our nerve and vote for freedom". Speaking in a factory in Kent, Mr Johnson said the EU was an anachronism which "costs us a huge amount of money and subverts our democracy". He insisted there were no downsides from leaving the EU, joking the "only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Meanwhile, Tony Blair has urged pro-EU campaigners to "show more passion". so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() Johnson is a fraud, the biggest phoney currently operating in politics. Everything he does is contrived for one purpose only , becoming PM. He couldn't give a flying F either way about Europe. A fat Etonian bawbag | |||
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"Mayor of London Boris Johnson has said leaving the EU is a "win-win for all of us", urging those backing exit to "hold our nerve and vote for freedom". Speaking in a factory in Kent, Mr Johnson said the EU was an anachronism which "costs us a huge amount of money and subverts our democracy". He insisted there were no downsides from leaving the EU, joking the "only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Meanwhile, Tony Blair has urged pro-EU campaigners to "show more passion". so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() . I don't see him being an Etonian being an issue on this subject. Cameron is an Etonian, Osborne was harrow (I think) half the front benches on both sides went to Oxford!. The truth is everybody, you, me, Osborne, Cameron, Johnson, were all personally biased in one way or another, we might work in a place that could be hit by leaving the EU, we could work in a place that gets hit hard by freedom of movement, some of us have to endure ridiculous red tape, some of us get saved by ridiculous red tape!. We seemed to have based the entire argument on trade and growth, yeah I get it, I just think there's more to it, we're perpetuating this notion that we (UK) are incapable of governing ourselves, we need the EU to do it for us, without the eu, we'll murder disabled people, strip workers rights, elect Hitler... Abandon democracy, well I heard that on this thread only the other day, the notion that morons shouldn't get a vote(there unaware of the facts!). Capitalism has a paradigm and were all in it for better or worse!. | |||
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"Since I wrote the last post I came across this from Peter Hitchens and I thought it was very relevant to this thread. "It isn’t about money or about jobs. It’s an instinct and an intuition. It is about that priceless thing, governing yourself, going out if necessary, into the biting cold – rather than staying warm and comfortable by being someone else’s servant or subject. Each of us must decide this for himself or herself. If you need to know what anyone else thinks, then you don’t care enough and you’d be better off remaining the obedient citizen of a subject province that pretends to be an independent kingdom. No wonder this is such a dull campaign." Very true. Yes, that it a brilliant post. Peter Hitchens well sums up some of the foundations of Brexit argument ie don't try to find out any facts, just make your decision on emotional reactions to things that are not true. Because being part of the EU no more makes us a 'subject province that pretends to be an independent kingdom' than coming out of the EU would make us an independent Kingdom. What does 'governing yourself' mean in the modern world? We are members of NATO: if Russia attacks Turkey, then we are at war. Is that governing yourself? We are signatories to the ECHR - and so we should give votes to criminals. That's nothing to do with the EU, but is that governing yourselves? And being out of the EU and maintaining our trade status. The EU decides as an example to change the size and position of all car headlights. British manufacturers have to comply if they want to carry on selling in Europe, with no say whatever on the rules. Is that 'governing ourselves' And who are 'yourselves'? Is that Scotland, or is it just England. And what has Scotland been doing for the past 300 years? Has England allowed it to be an independent Kingdom? So Peter Hitchens, I think you open far more questions than you give answers. " What makes an independent kingdom/nation? A good start would be that the elected representatives of that nation have the final say on the laws of that nation. The little red herring about the headlights is nothing more than an attempt to muddy the water. You could equally say that if the Chinese want chickens feet you don't send them pigs trotters. Each example is as ridiculous as the other. NATO is a strategic military alliance nothing more nothing less. Many independent nations have entered into such alliances down the years. Some for good some for bad, but NATO nor any other defence alliance (with the possible exception of the Warsaw pact) meddles in the internal politics of its members. You ask "who are yourselves" and ask has Scotland been allowed to be an independent kingdom. Well maybe you missed it but last year Scotland had their referendum and they voted (for right or wrong, good or bad) to stay part of the UK. But the most important thing is that they voted. So now the UK has its turn to vote on who will pass the majority of laws that affects peoples lives every day. Staying in the EU will mean that the elected members of the UK parliament will continue being told which laws they can and can't pass by the unelected EU commission. Leaving the EU will make the elected members of the UK parliament the final arbiters of all laws that affect the British people. Of course international treaties and obligations will have to be taken into account and maybe some of those laws will be the same, but most importantly the British parliament will have the final say. Ask yourself this. Why is it so important to stay in? Is it because of the efficiency of the EU? The EU with 3 presidents, 28 commissioners, 751 MEP's and over 30,000 pen pushers that has only ever had 2 major crises to deal with and has screwed up both on a biblical scale. Or the EU that is very adept at deciding the correct shape and size of a lemon and doling out taxpayers cash to to (mainly but not exclusively French) farmers to sit on their arse and do nothing. The EU that presides over the thousands upon thousands of tons of lemons that go unpicked every year in the Alicante region because the farmers are happy just to take the subsidy rather that pick what nobody wants. For other parts of the EU replace lemons with apples, pears, olives, oranges, grapes or any other fruit or veg you can think of. Maybe you like the EU that has presided over a fisheries policy that has not only destroyed the livelihoods of thousands of British fishermen but has been an ecological disaster that even if repealed tomorrow will take decades to rectify. Or maybe the EU that admitted itself that 20% of all EU money sent to Bulgaria finished up in a Mafia pocket. As I said earlier the economic argument is a red herring. The real decision is who do you want to make your laws? That unelected lot above or (even with its imperfections) the UK parliament who YOU vote for. | |||
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"Mayor of London Boris Johnson has said leaving the EU is a "win-win for all of us", urging those backing exit to "hold our nerve and vote for freedom". Speaking in a factory in Kent, Mr Johnson said the EU was an anachronism which "costs us a huge amount of money and subverts our democracy". He insisted there were no downsides from leaving the EU, joking the "only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Meanwhile, Tony Blair has urged pro-EU campaigners to "show more passion". so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() The remain in campaign is so negative I predict they'll be telling us in June we can expect plagues of Locusts should we leave the EU. ![]() | |||
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"Mayor of London Boris Johnson has said leaving the EU is a "win-win for all of us", urging those backing exit to "hold our nerve and vote for freedom". Speaking in a factory in Kent, Mr Johnson said the EU was an anachronism which "costs us a huge amount of money and subverts our democracy". He insisted there were no downsides from leaving the EU, joking the "only thing we have to fear is fear itself". Meanwhile, Tony Blair has urged pro-EU campaigners to "show more passion". so are you a Tony? or a Boris? backer Hmm Tony Blair the liar and war criminal, or Boris Johnson the mayor of London? Its got to be Bojo all day long of course! ![]() ![]() Oh! I thought we had that one last week. I'm preparing myself for the Martian invasion at the moment. ![]() | |||
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"There was some misleading stuff higher up trying to persuade us that most favoured nation (MFN) status under WTO arrangements would protect us from discrimination and from other countries imposing higher tariffs. That's either an attempt to mislead you or people don't understand what the WTO does and are deluding themselves. Being in a recognised regional grouping like the EU allows us to have much better terms (no import/export duties) than MFN . Dropping into MFN status doesn't mean that the UK suddenly would get some incredibly good deal - far from it, it would force many countries, not just in the EU, to charge us higher rates of duty and vice versa increasing the costs of imported goods and the prices of our exports, making British exporters less able to compete. "In the first instance, if the UK left the EU and did not negotiate a regional free trade agreement with the EU, it would acquire by virtue of its membership of the WTO the status of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) with the EU. In accordance with the rules of the WTO trading system, and especially the rules of equal treatment, the EU would then be obliged to impose the same tariffs under the same conditions as all the other countries that enjoyed MFN status. That would include tariffs on a wide range of industrial goods. Britain would not even qualify for reduced tariffs under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP). Currently, in trading with the rest of the world, Britain as an EU Member State benefits from tariff concessions negotiated by the EU. The differential rates it enjoys discriminate against parties which do not have trade agreements with the EU, but this is permitted under the rules concerning regional trade agreements. On leaving the EU, Britain would lose the protection of these rules, and be faced with MFN tariffs. The EU would have no choice in this. It must obey WTO rules. It must be understood that this means the restoration of the status quo before the change, arising from the withdrawal of concessions specific to regional trade agreement membership. That is permitted. Perversely, if Britain sought to retaliate, the WTO's rules on equal treatment, and thus the prohibition of discrimination, would kick in. Tariffs imposed by the UK on goods from EU member states would have to be applied to similar goods from all other countries with which it did not have formal trade agreements. A duty on cars from the EU, for instance, would have to be matched by the same levy on cars from all other trading partners, including Japan and Korea. This cannot even be by-passed by imposing discriminatory domestic taxes, as indicated currently by action being taken against Brazil, where WTO proceedings are being initiated after a special tax was levied on imported cars. Then, on the other hand, if the UK decided to remove tariffs from EU products, it must do the same with all other WTO members." If you want to check this, it's all quoted from a considered analysis of what would happen produced by the Leave Alliance's "Flexcit" report. No one is misleading anyone so please stop that line of debate. We really don't need it. And you have used this tactic before and 'quoted' from this 'Flexcit' document. What you do is take an excerpt from one of the many scenarios discussed (note discussed) and then represent that as the 'Leave' campaigns position. It is no such thing. It is not good debate to select a few paragraphs from a 400+ page document prepared by some very knowledgeable people." But that's not what he's doing. What he is doing is pointing out that legally and in accordance with GATT and WTO rules, if we are no longer in a free trade agreement (such as EFTA) or a customs union (such as the EU or EEA) with our European neighbours then we will have to apply tariffs on a lot of their goods and they will have to apply tariffs on ours. It not a choice, it's international law. | |||
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"There was some misleading stuff higher up trying to persuade us that most favoured nation (MFN) status under WTO arrangements would protect us from discrimination and from other countries imposing higher tariffs. That's either an attempt to mislead you or people don't understand what the WTO does and are deluding themselves. Being in a recognised regional grouping like the EU allows us to have much better terms (no import/export duties) than MFN . Dropping into MFN status doesn't mean that the UK suddenly would get some incredibly good deal - far from it, it would force many countries, not just in the EU, to charge us higher rates of duty and vice versa increasing the costs of imported goods and the prices of our exports, making British exporters less able to compete. "In the first instance, if the UK left the EU and did not negotiate a regional free trade agreement with the EU, it would acquire by virtue of its membership of the WTO the status of Most Favoured Nation (MFN) with the EU. In accordance with the rules of the WTO trading system, and especially the rules of equal treatment, the EU would then be obliged to impose the same tariffs under the same conditions as all the other countries that enjoyed MFN status. That would include tariffs on a wide range of industrial goods. Britain would not even qualify for reduced tariffs under the Generalised Scheme of Preferences (GSP). Currently, in trading with the rest of the world, Britain as an EU Member State benefits from tariff concessions negotiated by the EU. The differential rates it enjoys discriminate against parties which do not have trade agreements with the EU, but this is permitted under the rules concerning regional trade agreements. On leaving the EU, Britain would lose the protection of these rules, and be faced with MFN tariffs. The EU would have no choice in this. It must obey WTO rules. It must be understood that this means the restoration of the status quo before the change, arising from the withdrawal of concessions specific to regional trade agreement membership. That is permitted. Perversely, if Britain sought to retaliate, the WTO's rules on equal treatment, and thus the prohibition of discrimination, would kick in. Tariffs imposed by the UK on goods from EU member states would have to be applied to similar goods from all other countries with which it did not have formal trade agreements. A duty on cars from the EU, for instance, would have to be matched by the same levy on cars from all other trading partners, including Japan and Korea. This cannot even be by-passed by imposing discriminatory domestic taxes, as indicated currently by action being taken against Brazil, where WTO proceedings are being initiated after a special tax was levied on imported cars. Then, on the other hand, if the UK decided to remove tariffs from EU products, it must do the same with all other WTO members." If you want to check this, it's all quoted from a considered analysis of what would happen produced by the Leave Alliance's "Flexcit" report. No one is misleading anyone so please stop that line of debate. We really don't need it. And you have used this tactic before and 'quoted' from this 'Flexcit' document. What you do is take an excerpt from one of the many scenarios discussed (note discussed) and then represent that as the 'Leave' campaigns position. It is no such thing. It is not good debate to select a few paragraphs from a 400+ page document prepared by some very knowledgeable people. But that's not what he's doing. What he is doing is pointing out that legally and in accordance with GATT and WTO rules, if we are no longer in a free trade agreement (such as EFTA) or a customs union (such as the EU or EEA) with our European neighbours then we will have to apply tariffs on a lot of their goods and they will have to apply tariffs on ours. It not a choice, it's international law." Think positive. All those tariffs could pay off the national debt. ![]() | |||
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"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. " As the US economy is 3 to 4 times the German economy, all things being equal, we should expect to export to the US 3 to 4 times what we export to Germany. The fact that we don't is because all things are not equal and the biggest difference, after distance from each other, is that Germany is in the EU and the US is not. " * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. " But we run trade surpluses with most of the other EU countries including Spain and Italy. " * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! " The independent data does not confirm the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial deal. All that it confirms is that the UK has a trade deficit with the EU. Whilst this is definitely to our advantage in any post BREXIT negotiations with the EU it's not the full picture. When it comes to relative negotiating strength far more important than the actual deficit or surplus amount is the relative trade volume. The EU's relative trade volume with the UK is between 7% and 10%, the UK's relative trade with the EU is about 45% ( some estimate as high as 55%). If the EU lost 7% to 10% of it's trade that would be very bad for it but not unrecoverable; if the UK lost 45% of its trade that would be an unrecoverable disaster. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying either the UK or the EU is going to loose all that trade if the UK leaves the EU but those trade volumes of about 10% for EU and 50% for UK give a much more realistic gide as to the negotiating strength of each. " I hope this helps the discussion." With the reality check additions I'm sure it will. | |||
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"Just in case anyone missed Boris Johnson's brilliant speech yesterday for vote Leave here is the link to watch the full speech... ![]() Personally, if I was BREXIT, I wouldn't be so eager to publish it. His argument was week and full of holes and I reckon had little appeal to any genuinely undecided. But don't let me put you of spreading his message. ![]() | |||
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"Generally the information you give below is correct and useful however, like we all tend to do, the way you present that information is biased towards your own point of view. Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. As the US economy is 3 to 4 times the German economy, all things being equal, we should expect to export to the US 3 to 4 times what we export to Germany. The fact that we don't is because all things are not equal and the biggest difference, after distance from each other, is that Germany is in the EU and the US is not. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. But we run trade surpluses with most of the other EU countries including Spain and Italy. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! The independent data does not confirm the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial deal. All that it confirms is that the UK has a trade deficit with the EU. Whilst this is definitely to our advantage in any post BREXIT negotiations with the EU it's not the full picture. When it comes to relative negotiating strength far more important than the actual deficit or surplus amount is the relative trade volume. The EU's relative trade volume with the UK is between 7% and 10%, the UK's relative trade with the EU is about 45% ( some estimate as high as 55%). If the EU lost 7% to 10% of it's trade that would be very bad for it but not unrecoverable; if the UK lost 45% of its trade that would be an unrecoverable disaster. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying either the UK or the EU is going to loose all that trade if the UK leaves the EU but those trade volumes of about 10% for EU and 50% for UK give a much more realistic gide as to the negotiating strength of each. I hope this helps the discussion. With the reality check additions I'm sure it will." Good post with genuine points for discussion. However I am still of the opinion that major European businesses (some as I named above) will put pressure on their national governments, who will in turn put pressure on Brussels to get a deal done ASAP. They can't afford not to. | |||
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"Just in case anyone missed Boris Johnson's brilliant speech yesterday for vote Leave here is the link to watch the full speech... ![]() ![]() As you say that is your personal opinion and you are entitled to it. However you are not Brexit, you are an "inner". I am for Brexit and personally I think it would have appeal to the genuinely undecided that's why I posted it. You have not put me off spreading his positive message, in fact I should thank you for quoting me and reposting it for anyone who may have missed it. ![]() | |||
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"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion. Yes it does. However I think that much of the economic argument is a bit of a red herring. The stay campaign would like us to believe that the instant Britain votes to leave, the channel tunnel will be bricked up and all the ports blockaded. It wont and they wont. Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. " I'm sorry. I don't quite get that. If the relationship between the UK and the EU will have very little change after we leave then why even leave it at all? | |||
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"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion. Yes it does. However I think that much of the economic argument is a bit of a red herring. The stay campaign would like us to believe that the instant Britain votes to leave, the channel tunnel will be bricked up and all the ports blockaded. It wont and they wont. Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. I'm sorry. I don't quite get that. If the relationship between the UK and the EU will have very little change after we leave then why even leave it at all?" He did say the "economic result of a leave". As you know this referendum is about a lot more than just economics. The need to leave the EU would be better for us for sovereignty, political and social reasons besides just the economic reasons. | |||
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"Just in case anyone missed Boris Johnson's brilliant speech yesterday for vote Leave here is the link to watch the full speech... ![]() ![]() ![]() Anything in the interests of balanced and fair debate. ![]() | |||
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"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion. Yes it does. However I think that much of the economic argument is a bit of a red herring. The stay campaign would like us to believe that the instant Britain votes to leave, the channel tunnel will be bricked up and all the ports blockaded. It wont and they wont. Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. I'm sorry. I don't quite get that. If the relationship between the UK and the EU will have very little change after we leave then why even leave it at all? He did say the "economic result of a leave". As you know this referendum is about a lot more than just economics. The need to leave the EU would be better for us for sovereignty, political and social reasons besides just the economic reasons. " For those who want to leave maybe but for those who want to remain the illusion of sovereignty just does not seem worth the genuine risk to real wealth. | |||
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Reply privately |
"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion. Yes it does. However I think that much of the economic argument is a bit of a red herring. The stay campaign would like us to believe that the instant Britain votes to leave, the channel tunnel will be bricked up and all the ports blockaded. It wont and they wont. Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. I'm sorry. I don't quite get that. If the relationship between the UK and the EU will have very little change after we leave then why even leave it at all? He did say the "economic result of a leave". As you know this referendum is about a lot more than just economics. The need to leave the EU would be better for us for sovereignty, political and social reasons besides just the economic reasons. For those who want to leave maybe but for those who want to remain the illusion of sovereignty just does not seem worth the genuine risk to real wealth." What wealth? Most people in this country are skint or in debt up to the eyeballs | |||
(closed, thread got too big) |
Reply privately |
"Generally the information you give below is correct and useful however, like we all tend to do, the way you present that information is biased towards your own point of view. Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. As the US economy is 3 to 4 times the German economy, all things being equal, we should expect to export to the US 3 to 4 times what we export to Germany. The fact that we don't is because all things are not equal and the biggest difference, after distance from each other, is that Germany is in the EU and the US is not. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. But we run trade surpluses with most of the other EU countries including Spain and Italy. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! The independent data does not confirm the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial deal. All that it confirms is that the UK has a trade deficit with the EU. Whilst this is definitely to our advantage in any post BREXIT negotiations with the EU it's not the full picture. When it comes to relative negotiating strength far more important than the actual deficit or surplus amount is the relative trade volume. The EU's relative trade volume with the UK is between 7% and 10%, the UK's relative trade with the EU is about 45% ( some estimate as high as 55%). If the EU lost 7% to 10% of it's trade that would be very bad for it but not unrecoverable; if the UK lost 45% of its trade that would be an unrecoverable disaster. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying either the UK or the EU is going to loose all that trade if the UK leaves the EU but those trade volumes of about 10% for EU and 50% for UK give a much more realistic gide as to the negotiating strength of each. I hope this helps the discussion. With the reality check additions I'm sure it will. Good post with genuine points for discussion. However I am still of the opinion that major European businesses (some as I named above) will put pressure on their national governments, who will in turn put pressure on Brussels to get a deal done ASAP. They can't afford not to." I agree that a lot of pressure will be placed on both sides to come to an agreement to prevent all that trade being lost but I don't think we'll get a deal that gives us the same unrestricted access to the European Single Market as we have now. The only way we could get anything near that would be via EEA or EFTA and with those we would still have to pay into the EU (possibly more NET than we do now), still have to accept free movement of people (the EU could even insist on us joining Schengen as Norway and Switzerland had to) but have less say in how the EU is run. Any other deal free trade deal we might make outside of being in the EU/EEA/EFTA will have restrictive access to the Single Market and will inevitably lead to reduced trade, which means potential job losses. The only real question is how many? | |||
(closed, thread got too big) |
Reply privately |
"Generally the information you give below is correct and useful however, like we all tend to do, the way you present that information is biased towards your own point of view. Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. As the US economy is 3 to 4 times the German economy, all things being equal, we should expect to export to the US 3 to 4 times what we export to Germany. The fact that we don't is because all things are not equal and the biggest difference, after distance from each other, is that Germany is in the EU and the US is not. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. But we run trade surpluses with most of the other EU countries including Spain and Italy. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! The independent data does not confirm the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial deal. All that it confirms is that the UK has a trade deficit with the EU. Whilst this is definitely to our advantage in any post BREXIT negotiations with the EU it's not the full picture. When it comes to relative negotiating strength far more important than the actual deficit or surplus amount is the relative trade volume. The EU's relative trade volume with the UK is between 7% and 10%, the UK's relative trade with the EU is about 45% ( some estimate as high as 55%). If the EU lost 7% to 10% of it's trade that would be very bad for it but not unrecoverable; if the UK lost 45% of its trade that would be an unrecoverable disaster. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying either the UK or the EU is going to loose all that trade if the UK leaves the EU but those trade volumes of about 10% for EU and 50% for UK give a much more realistic gide as to the negotiating strength of each. I hope this helps the discussion. With the reality check additions I'm sure it will. Good post with genuine points for discussion. However I am still of the opinion that major European businesses (some as I named above) will put pressure on their national governments, who will in turn put pressure on Brussels to get a deal done ASAP. They can't afford not to. I agree that a lot of pressure will be placed on both sides to come to an agreement to prevent all that trade being lost but I don't think we'll get a deal that gives us the same unrestricted access to the European Single Market as we have now. The only way we could get anything near that would be via EEA or EFTA and with those we would still have to pay into the EU (possibly more NET than we do now), still have to accept free movement of people (the EU could even insist on us joining Schengen as Norway and Switzerland had to) but have less say in how the EU is run. Any other deal free trade deal we might make outside of being in the EU/EEA/EFTA will have restrictive access to the Single Market and will inevitably lead to reduced trade, which means potential job losses. The only real question is how many?" Or how many more will be created | |||
(closed, thread got too big) |
Reply privately |
"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion. Yes it does. However I think that much of the economic argument is a bit of a red herring. The stay campaign would like us to believe that the instant Britain votes to leave, the channel tunnel will be bricked up and all the ports blockaded. It wont and they wont. Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. I'm sorry. I don't quite get that. If the relationship between the UK and the EU will have very little change after we leave then why even leave it at all? He did say the "economic result of a leave". As you know this referendum is about a lot more than just economics. The need to leave the EU would be better for us for sovereignty, political and social reasons besides just the economic reasons. For those who want to leave maybe but for those who want to remain the illusion of sovereignty just does not seem worth the genuine risk to real wealth. What wealth? Most people in this country are skint or in debt up to the eyeballs" And yet we are the 5th largest economy in the world and the 14th richest country in the world. Go figure. | |||
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Reply privately |
"I agree that a lot of pressure will be placed on both sides to come to an agreement to prevent all that trade being lost but I don't think we'll get a deal that gives us the same unrestricted access to the European Single Market as we have now. The only way we could get anything near that would be via EEA or EFTA and with those we would still have to pay into the EU (possibly more NET than we do now), still have to accept free movement of people (the EU could even insist on us joining Schengen as Norway and Switzerland had to) but have less say in how the EU is run. Any other deal free trade deal we might make outside of being in the EU/EEA/EFTA will have restrictive access to the Single Market and will inevitably lead to reduced trade, which means potential job losses. The only real question is how many?" Absolutely spot on.. Brexit supports seem to think they can have their cake an eat it. If you want to stop free movement of people, then you will have to accept some form of limit on access to the EU market for UK business and the consequent job losses at home. If you want to maintain UK access to EU markets you'll have to accept at least free movement of people - and more likely free movement of people and having to implement much European legislation without any say on it. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) |
Reply privately |
"Generally the information you give below is correct and useful however, like we all tend to do, the way you present that information is biased towards your own point of view. Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. As the US economy is 3 to 4 times the German economy, all things being equal, we should expect to export to the US 3 to 4 times what we export to Germany. The fact that we don't is because all things are not equal and the biggest difference, after distance from each other, is that Germany is in the EU and the US is not. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. But we run trade surpluses with most of the other EU countries including Spain and Italy. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! The independent data does not confirm the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial deal. All that it confirms is that the UK has a trade deficit with the EU. Whilst this is definitely to our advantage in any post BREXIT negotiations with the EU it's not the full picture. When it comes to relative negotiating strength far more important than the actual deficit or surplus amount is the relative trade volume. The EU's relative trade volume with the UK is between 7% and 10%, the UK's relative trade with the EU is about 45% ( some estimate as high as 55%). If the EU lost 7% to 10% of it's trade that would be very bad for it but not unrecoverable; if the UK lost 45% of its trade that would be an unrecoverable disaster. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying either the UK or the EU is going to loose all that trade if the UK leaves the EU but those trade volumes of about 10% for EU and 50% for UK give a much more realistic gide as to the negotiating strength of each. I hope this helps the discussion. With the reality check additions I'm sure it will. Good post with genuine points for discussion. However I am still of the opinion that major European businesses (some as I named above) will put pressure on their national governments, who will in turn put pressure on Brussels to get a deal done ASAP. They can't afford not to. I agree that a lot of pressure will be placed on both sides to come to an agreement to prevent all that trade being lost but I don't think we'll get a deal that gives us the same unrestricted access to the European Single Market as we have now. The only way we could get anything near that would be via EEA or EFTA and with those we would still have to pay into the EU (possibly more NET than we do now), still have to accept free movement of people (the EU could even insist on us joining Schengen as Norway and Switzerland had to) but have less say in how the EU is run. Any other deal free trade deal we might make outside of being in the EU/EEA/EFTA will have restrictive access to the Single Market and will inevitably lead to reduced trade, which means potential job losses. The only real question is how many? Or how many more will be created" Well I've told you why I think we will likely loose some so, if you think we'll gain by leaving, at least set out on what you base that belief. | |||
(closed, thread got too big) |
Reply privately |
"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion. Yes it does. However I think that much of the economic argument is a bit of a red herring. The stay campaign would like us to believe that the instant Britain votes to leave, the channel tunnel will be bricked up and all the ports blockaded. It wont and they wont. Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. I'm sorry. I don't quite get that. If the relationship between the UK and the EU will have very little change after we leave then why even leave it at all? He did say the "economic result of a leave". As you know this referendum is about a lot more than just economics. The need to leave the EU would be better for us for sovereignty, political and social reasons besides just the economic reasons. For those who want to leave maybe but for those who want to remain the illusion of sovereignty just does not seem worth the genuine risk to real wealth." Lol, the EU deficit jumped to a record high just the other day. There are risks to staying in. The Eurozone crisis is on-going and on Thursday the ECB cut interest rates and is now going to pay banks to lend money. It seems to send out the signal that the ECB is running out of ammunition in their attempts to stimulate economic growth. Plus if we remain in the EU there will be economic costs of the continued mass immigration from the EU which we cannot control we are already trying to play catch up with building the infrastructure to cope with 350,000 net per annum number of people into the country as it is. That immigration figure could be higher as government sources have revealed the number of National insurance numbers being issued is a lot higher than the 350,000 figure. | |||
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Reply privately |
"Generally the information you give below is correct and useful however, like we all tend to do, the way you present that information is biased towards your own point of view. Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. As the US economy is 3 to 4 times the German economy, all things being equal, we should expect to export to the US 3 to 4 times what we export to Germany. The fact that we don't is because all things are not equal and the biggest difference, after distance from each other, is that Germany is in the EU and the US is not. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. But we run trade surpluses with most of the other EU countries including Spain and Italy. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! The independent data does not confirm the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial deal. All that it confirms is that the UK has a trade deficit with the EU. Whilst this is definitely to our advantage in any post BREXIT negotiations with the EU it's not the full picture. When it comes to relative negotiating strength far more important than the actual deficit or surplus amount is the relative trade volume. The EU's relative trade volume with the UK is between 7% and 10%, the UK's relative trade with the EU is about 45% ( some estimate as high as 55%). If the EU lost 7% to 10% of it's trade that would be very bad for it but not unrecoverable; if the UK lost 45% of its trade that would be an unrecoverable disaster. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying either the UK or the EU is going to loose all that trade if the UK leaves the EU but those trade volumes of about 10% for EU and 50% for UK give a much more realistic gide as to the negotiating strength of each. I hope this helps the discussion. With the reality check additions I'm sure it will. Good post with genuine points for discussion. However I am still of the opinion that major European businesses (some as I named above) will put pressure on their national governments, who will in turn put pressure on Brussels to get a deal done ASAP. They can't afford not to. I agree that a lot of pressure will be placed on both sides to come to an agreement to prevent all that trade being lost but I don't think we'll get a deal that gives us the same unrestricted access to the European Single Market as we have now. The only way we could get anything near that would be via EEA or EFTA and with those we would still have to pay into the EU (possibly more NET than we do now), still have to accept free movement of people (the EU could even insist on us joining Schengen as Norway and Switzerland had to) but have less say in how the EU is run. Any other deal free trade deal we might make outside of being in the EU/EEA/EFTA will have restrictive access to the Single Market and will inevitably lead to reduced trade, which means potential job losses. The only real question is how many? Or how many more will be created Well I've told you why I think we will likely loose some so, if you think we'll gain by leaving, at least set out on what you base that belief." We would be free to make our own trade agreements and small and medium sized businesses would be free of the EU red tape imposed on them. Anyway, if we left it would be the start of the end for the EU and it would fall like a house of cards so as others have said, the economic argument is a bit of a red herring | |||
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"Avoiding the personal barbs from one individual can I add some more facts (as I see them). Its something I try to do. HMRC has just published the Trade Figures for January and it may help people take a view on how the EU may work with the UK post 'Brexit' with these numbers from their website and attached Spreadsheets: (Goods only) EU Imports: £16.8 Billion Non EU Imports: £14.7 Billion EU Exports: £10.4 Billion Non EU Exports: £11.7 Billion Deficit: £ 9.4 Billion EU Deficit: £ 6.4 Billion (68%) Snapshots: * We Export 20% more to the USA than we Import from the USA. * We Export 20% more to the USA than we do to Germany. * We Import £1.8 Bn more from Germany than we Export. * We Import £1.2 Bn more from Holland than we Export. We Import 20% more from France than we Export. * Apart from China (£2.2 Bn deficit) we run a trade surplus with the rest of the world. The ONS data summary, also published today, calculates a slightly different set of numbers showing an overall Goods + Services Deficit of some £3.5 Billion. In Goods they show: Total Deficit: £10.3 Billion EU Deficit: £ 8.1 Billion (78%) I cannot give links to those two sources but the BBC had a brief summary here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35782039 So this independent data confirms the argument that the pressure will be on the EU to agree a mutually beneficial Free Trade Agreement for their members. In cars alone they exported £3.3 Billion to the UK but imported £1.2 Billion from us. The EU trade deficit in Goods was some 70% of our January total Deficit! I hope this helps the discussion. Yes it does. However I think that much of the economic argument is a bit of a red herring. The stay campaign would like us to believe that the instant Britain votes to leave, the channel tunnel will be bricked up and all the ports blockaded. It wont and they wont. Large and small businesses will have forward orders and regular customers in both directions and it would be in everyone's interest, not least the EU's, to maintain the status quo. Of course the likes of Schulz, Tusk and Juncker will want to chuck their toys out of the pram, but more level headed voices will prevail. As I've said before. Does anyone think that the likes of Mercedes Benz, BMW. VW. or Audi would stand by let their most profitable European export market get washed down the channel? Or French wine producers see their WORLDWIDE biggest export market go the same way? Of course they wont. The slightest whiff of a trade war between Britain and the EU will set the alarm bells in Stuttgart, Munich, Bordeaux, Reims and hundreds of other EU towns and cities off loud. The economic result of a leave vote will be little or nothing more than a couple of years maintaining the status quo until a new deal with very little change is drawn up. I'm sorry. I don't quite get that. If the relationship between the UK and the EU will have very little change after we leave then why even leave it at all? He did say the "economic result of a leave". As you know this referendum is about a lot more than just economics. The need to leave the EU would be better for us for sovereignty, political and social reasons besides just the economic reasons. For those who want to leave maybe but for those who want to remain the illusion of sovereignty just does not seem worth the genuine risk to real wealth. Lol, the EU deficit jumped to a record high just the other day. There are risks to staying in. The Eurozone crisis is on-going and on Thursday the ECB cut interest rates and is now going to pay banks to lend money. It seems to send out the signal that the ECB is running out of ammunition in their attempts to stimulate economic growth. Plus if we remain in the EU there will be economic costs of the continued mass immigration from the EU which we cannot control we are already trying to play catch up with building the infrastructure to cope with 350,000 net per annum number of people into the country as it is. That immigration figure could be higher as government sources have revealed the number of National insurance numbers being issued is a lot higher than the 350,000 figure. " That 350,000 figure is total net immigration into the UK from the whole world, not just the EU. Of the 350,000 over 50% is from outside the EU. So we could, if we wanted to, just say no to that half now if we wanted to. Of the remaining 50%- it's not known how many of those are actual UK nationals returning from having lived and/or worked within the EU, some estimates put that figure at up to 50% (about 25% of total) So the real figure of EU net migration could actually be closer to 75,000 not 350,000. But we could do more. We do not have to allow anyone into this country (except UK nationals) who cannot show that they have the means to support themselves. We choose not to check. We do not have to allow anyone into this country who does not have adequate health insurance (either private or own state funded) to cover them for any accidents or current health conditions (except UK nationals). We choose not to check. To be honest with you Centura, this whole immigration thing is a red herring that all governments have used because, by blaming the EU and free movement, they have been able to avoid having to make the difficult decisions that should be made to control immigration properly. We could control immigration better than we do now if we wanted to, we choose not to. Leaving the EU won't change that. | |||
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"What makes an independent kingdom/nation? A good start would be that the elected representatives of that nation have the final say on the laws of that nation. " Nice words, but think for a minute. What's a nation? You are basing your argument around a historical entity created in 1709 and inferring that that construction must be forever the only framework for decision making and that it has and should always have complete sovereign power. Scotland doesn't have final say on the laws of the nation, nor does NI. And the elected representatives of the UK don't today have the final say on the laws of that nation, because we have pooled a level of sovereignty in over 700 international treaties that we have democratically agreed to sign. I don't see is being part of the EU any different. "The little red herring about the headlights is nothing more than an attempt to muddy the water. You could equally say that if the Chinese want chickens feet you don't send them pigs trotters. Each example is as ridiculous as the other." You seem confused about a very important point. Trade is built up on any number of common standards - technical, social, environmental. The headlights example is extremely important - it's one of the reasons why you can't buy many American cars in the EU, because they don't meet EU standards. If we are outside the EU and they change the headlight standards - as a trivial example - we either have to follow what they demand or face tariffs or stop trading in the relevant good with the EU "NATO is a strategic military alliance nothing more nothing less. Many independent nations have entered into such alliances down the years. Some for good some for bad, but NATO nor any other defence alliance (with the possible exception of the Warsaw pact) meddles in the internal politics of its members." Triggering us to declare war on a third party without any say doesn't 'meddle with internal politics'? We'll have to agree to disagree on that one. "You ask "who are yourselves" and ask has Scotland been allowed to be an independent kingdom. Well maybe you missed it but last year Scotland had their referendum and they voted (for right or wrong, good or bad) to stay part of the UK. But the most important thing is that they voted. So now the UK has its turn to vote..." I didn't miss it. Scotland voted to pool a degree of sovereignty with the rest of the UK; they will vote for staying in the EU and pooling a degree of sovereignty with the EU too. But it's not me who has a problem with that idea. It's you! You are the one who thinks it's unacceptable to pool a level of sovereignty. So my question to you: were you supporting Scottish independence since you disagree with pooling sovereignty so much? I don't know of course, but I suspect not. One rule for us, a different rule for them. ".. on who will pass the majority of laws that affects peoples lives every day." It's out Parliament - 80% of laws passed in Westminster are purely about UK legislation. Only 20% is triggered from the EU, in areas where our democratically elected government has agreed and have been part of the decision making process. "Staying in the EU will mean that the elected members of the UK parliament will continue being told which laws they can and can't pass by the unelected EU commission." See note above. You clearly have no idea how the EU works - though you appear to think its fine to pontificate on it nonetheless. The Commission (appointed by the elected governments of the EU) propose legislation that has to be passed by the EU Parliament (democratically elected by us all) and the Council Of Ministers - the members of the democratically elected governments of the EU. "Leaving the EU will make the elected members of the UK parliament the final arbiters of all laws that affect the British people.Of course international treaties and obligations will have to be taken into account and maybe some of those laws will be the same, but most importantly the British parliament will have the final say." Not at all true, if we want to continue as a member of the EEA of EFTA. "Ask yourself this. Why is it so important to stay in? Is it because of the efficiency of the EU? The EU with 3 presidents, 28 commissioners, 751 MEP's and over 30,000 pen pushers that has only ever had 2 major crises to deal with and has screwed up both on a biblical scale." Compared to the UK with 1PM, 22 Cabinet Members, 650 MPs and 5.3 million 'pen pushers' "Or the EU that is very adept at deciding the correct shape and size of a lemon... " Easy to take a pop isn't it. But actually EU regulations are just a reflection of UN regulations on lemons. You can go and check it out https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/trade/agr/standard/fresh/FFV-Std/English/14Citrus_2010e.pdf As I said, trade has to be based on common standards. It's obvious if you bother to think about it. "...and doling out taxpayers cash to to (mainly but not exclusively French) farmers to sit on their arse and do nothing. The EU that presides over the thousands upon thousands of tons of lemons that go unpicked every year in the Alicante region because the farmers are happy just to take the subsidy rather that pick what nobody wants. For other parts of the EU replace lemons with apples, pears, olives, oranges, grapes or any other fruit or veg you can think of." Yep, agree with that. It should be changed and the UK should have taken a better lead to change it. "Maybe you like the EU that has presided over a fisheries policy that has not only destroyed the livelihoods of thousands of British fishermen but has been an ecological disaster that even if repealed tomorrow will take decades to rectify.Or maybe the EU that admitted itself that 20% of all EU money sent to Bulgaria finished up in a Mafia pocket." I accept some of that too. "As I said earlier the economic argument is a red herring. The real decision is who do you want to make your laws? That unelected lot above or (even with its imperfections) the UK parliament who YOU vote for. " As I pointed out above, you clearly don't know how the EU works. So actually you make an interesting point. For me the EU is far more democratic than the Westminster parliament (a system designed to avoid a government ever getting a popular mandate and an unelected House of Lords where you can buy a seat with cash - surely an embarrassment to anyone who cares about democracy) . I have stopped voting for anything in the UK...in both my constituency and my local ward there is no point me voting - the same party has held both since the 1920s. The ONLY vote I have that actually makes any difference democratically is my EU Parliament vote. Shall we agree to disagree then? | |||
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