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Oil falls to a 12 year low

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

One hand it sounds fantastic

On the other, considering the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia..

You really have to worry about what that says about the state of global trade

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

It says that I can afford that escalade I've been eyeing.

-Courtney

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It says that I can afford that escalade I've been eyeing.

-Courtney"

They sell them here? Where would you park it?

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"It says that I can afford that escalade I've been eyeing.

-Courtney"

.

Escalade?

That sounds like a big cream cake

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Due to the easing of sanctions Iranian oil comes to the world market this year. They can extract at a cost of $1.00 per barrel.

You can bet that they will try and squeeze the Saudi regime by selling as much as they can. The Russians will not cut back supply in case they lose market share. Neither will the Saudi Regime.

What this means is that oil prices will fall much further still.

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By *uited staffs guyMan
over a year ago

staffordshire

it says everything about how much oil the US are producing these days and the fact China is slowing down

the US supply of oil isn't going to go away any time soon and OPEC isn't going to cut back to give market share to Russia, Venezuela and Iran so overall good for us, not so good for the middle east countries and russia

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future.

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By *uited staffs guyMan
over a year ago

staffordshire

US shale has changed everything, the Saudis were happy to let the price drop because they thought it'd drive the US producers out of business but instead they've just got more efficient and are still making money at the lower prices

the oil exporting countries are going to have to get used to the new way of things for the next decade at least

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By *entaur_UKMan
over a year ago

Cannock


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future. "

Alex Salmond has been quiet for a change, long may it continue.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future. "

I'm Scottish and I'm glad we never "got" independence but its got fuck all to do with the price of Oil. 55% of "us" saw through that little carrot that Alex and Nicola pontificated on!!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Wow $34 a barrel

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"it says everything about how much oil the US are producing these days and the fact China is slowing down

the US supply of oil isn't going to go away any time soon and OPEC isn't going to cut back to give market share to Russia, Venezuela and Iran so overall good for us, not so good for the middle east countries and russia"

.

The fracking oil of America is produced at an average cost of 78 dollars a barrel, there's three or four American companies already gone bust because of that, in fact that's Saudis point of pumping as much as possible to lower prices and bankrupt the frackers.

Yes the extra pumping is political.

My point was, usually at times of crises with the largest oil exporter, prices go up as the market sees possible problems with supply (not price) now I'm presuming there thinking the downturn in global demand for oil that's been seen over the last 8 years is not getting reversed anytime soon!.

The extra supply from the US was not the whole story with price going down the long term average for oil increases was 1.5-2% per year where as they only got a 2.5% increase in demand from 08 until 2015.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future. "

When it came to the vote oil played no part in my thinking. I'm pretty sure that Scotland, like many other countries, has more going for it that having to rely on oil for revenue. To some folk it seemed a big deal....like what will we do when there is none left? Maybe run our cars on scotch....ha ha!! We all think we're getting a 'bargain' now that fuel is soooooo cheap

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

If its as cheap as 2004,great but what was the price of a litre in 2004?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Yes its global warming the olive trees are producing as much fruit

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By *udistnorthantsMan
over a year ago

Desborough

It means I'm driving my S-Type nearly as much as my X-Type... happly days

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By *riskynriskyCouple
over a year ago

Essex.

The down side to this is that a lot of pension schemes invest in petrochemical companies, so a lot of pensions are not performing as well as they should...

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By *ab femWoman
over a year ago

Ayrshire

The problem with getting slightly cheaper petrol for all you petrol heads out there is that because the oil price is so low, guys and women are getting paid off, companies are going out of business because it's not sustainable anymore and by the sounds of it wont be for a long time yet.

I wish I was paying a few pence more for petrol and ultimately the price per barrel went back up

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It says that I can afford that escalade I've been eyeing.

-Courtney

They sell them here? Where would you park it? "

They don't sell them here?!? That's it, I'm leaving!

-Courtney

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By *riskynriskyCouple
over a year ago

Essex.


"The problem with getting slightly cheaper petrol for all you petrol heads out there is that because the oil price is so low, guys and women are getting paid off, companies are going out of business because it's not sustainable anymore and by the sounds of it wont be for a long time yet.

I wish I was paying a few pence more for petrol and ultimately the price per barrel went back up "

I agree that it's bad that people are losing their jobs but at the same time I bet a lot of those people were rubbing their hands together when we were paying £1.30 a litre. People lost jobs and companies were going under when fuel priced them off the road...

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"The down side to this is that a lot of pension schemes invest in petrochemical companies, so a lot of pensions are not performing as well as they should..."
.

It's not just the petroleum companies though is it, all the mining stock is being driven down and again this morning were seeing the Chinese stocks get hammered over manufacturing output data and trading being stopped, that was sort of my point about what it says about global trade and where it's going...

Ie nowhere soon?

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

And although we currently are deluged with crude (there actually sailing it around on ships because the refinery's and holdings are full).

If you look carefully at oil companies capex for the last ten years, I mean there investing 4 times more than they used to, and getting half as much back, conventional oil output actually fell from 08-15 and that really is worrying.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

To be fair on the individuals losing their jobs they won't have rubbed their hands together at higher oil prices since wages never go up with increased profits but you can guarantee jobs will be lost at lower prices to keep shareholders dividends up

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 07/01/16 08:56:46]

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

They are trying to kill off to the competition from the fracking companies, it will be back up soon enough.

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire


"If its as cheap as 2004,great but what was the price of a litre in 2004?"

Not sure, but I can confirm that in May 1970 the papers were warning that a GALLON of 'premium' was set to rise 1p to 6s 4d. (They were also moaning that 4s 6d was tax)

(The trouble with renovating old houses is it's easy to get distracted reading the old newspapers stuffed behind the skirting board...)

Mr ddc

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire


"The problem with getting slightly cheaper petrol for all you petrol heads out there is that because the oil price is so low, guys and women are getting paid off, companies are going out of business because it's not sustainable anymore and by the sounds of it wont be for a long time yet.

I wish I was paying a few pence more for petrol and ultimately the price per barrel went back up "

I remember the double whammy in Great Yarmouth of the summer season ending the same time as a massive cut-back in North Sea gas.

But it has always been the same, with coal, town gas, forestry... While every job lost is a personal tragedy, individuals do bounce back, even if companies don't. Besides, I'm sure we can all agree that with snow forecast next week, it's a good thing that many elderly people's heating will be a little cheaper this winter.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"If its as cheap as 2004,great but what was the price of a litre in 2004?

Not sure, but I can confirm that in May 1970 the papers were warning that a GALLON of 'premium' was set to rise 1p to 6s 4d. (They were also moaning that 4s 6d was tax)

(The trouble with renovating old houses is it's easy to get distracted reading the old newspapers stuffed behind the skirting board...)

Mr ddc"

groats ate a little before my time lol

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By *uited staffs guyMan
over a year ago

staffordshire


"They are trying to kill off to the competition from the fracking companies, it will be back up soon enough."

Don't be so sure, the shale oil producers have currently got down to production costs of $40 a barrel and will still keep producing unless it goes really low, and they may get more efficient over time as well as industries often do

The issue even if they stopped temporarily is that if the oil price rose again they'd start pumping again, meaning in effect there's a ceiling that the price can't really go past before supply shoots up again

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By *S RachaelTV/TS
over a year ago

Lowestoft


"One hand it sounds fantastic

On the other, considering the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia..

You really have to worry about what that says about the state of global trade "

Yes it does. But it was driven up in the first place by an unrealistic view of chinese and BRIC growth. It's acutely only gone back down to where it was. It's not so long ago that we were complaining at the price going over £1 a litre.

I'd say this is a welcome correction....that doesn't help our deficit though...luckily we have a tory govt. We would be down the pan if Corbyn were PM.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"They are trying to kill off to the competition from the fracking companies, it will be back up soon enough.

Don't be so sure, the shale oil producers have currently got down to production costs of $40 a barrel and will still keep producing unless it goes really low, and they may get more efficient over time as well as industries often do

The issue even if they stopped temporarily is that if the oil price rose again they'd start pumping again, meaning in effect there's a ceiling that the price can't really go past before supply shoots up again "

.

Fracking is energy intensive, it's eroei is a third of conventional oil and still less than deep sea!

The 40 dollars a barrel mark is for the very best sweet spots in there first year, even then your actually losing 5 dollars on every barrel you produce, the average cost is 70 odd dollars a barrel, and I won't even mention that the quality means a different more expensive refining process (hence one of the reasons why the US has restarted export, they don't have the refineries)

If you look at the junk bond market in the US , you'll notice it's chocka block and massively overloaded with fracking companies, to the extent that the US government is now looking at different regulations on it.

The fracking companies have always been about the 100 dollar barrel! Without it there well and truly fucked and the Saudis know it.

A note should be made that Saudi/Iraq/Kuwait oil is produced at 7 dollars a barrel, the difference being these countries are solely relying on that income and 35 dollars doesn't cover their costs (countrywise) either!.

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By *nnyMan
over a year ago

Glasgow


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future.

When it came to the vote oil played no part in my thinking. I'm pretty sure that Scotland, like many other countries, has more going for it that having to rely on oil for revenue. To some folk it seemed a big deal....like what will we do when there is none left? Maybe run our cars on scotch....ha ha!! We all think we're getting a 'bargain' now that fuel is soooooo cheap "

Oil revenues played a part in a lot of folks thinking about separation. The notion of a 'Scottish' oil fund is now laughable.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"One hand it sounds fantastic

On the other, considering the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia..

You really have to worry about what that says about the state of global trade

Yes it does. But it was driven up in the first place by an unrealistic view of chinese and BRIC growth. It's acutely only gone back down to where it was. It's not so long ago that we were complaining at the price going over £1 a litre.

I'd say this is a welcome correction....that doesn't help our deficit though...luckily we have a tory govt. We would be down the pan if Corbyn were PM. "

.

I'd have a closer look at bp/shell/Exxon capex for the last ten years!.

These companies are investing 4 or 5 times what they did in 2004 on finding and getting the stuff out of the ground.

There spending trillions between them in the last ten years... That's why there shutting up shop at 40,50 and 60 dollar barrels, it's not cost effective!.

Like I say the worrying think that any oil analyst will tell you, is what that says about global demand

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago

Ha even Osborne is now saying there's a toxic brew building in the global economy!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

The price of commodities are in free fall...the nightmare of deflation the 30s revisited......maybe we need lower public spending to get unemployment back up to depression levels, will Putin survive...or will he start a war ?

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire


"The price of commodities are in free fall...the nightmare of deflation the 30s revisited......maybe we need lower public spending to get unemployment back up to depression levels, will Putin survive...or will he start a war ?"

Deflation?

Lol. Give it another week. Once the large drop in oil prices in November 2014 fall out of the calculation, the left will soon be screaming "inflation's picking up, we're all doomed!" again.

You just can't please some people

Mr ddc

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"The price of commodities are in free fall...the nightmare of deflation the 30s revisited......maybe we need lower public spending to get unemployment back up to depression levels, will Putin survive...or will he start a war ?

Deflation?

Lol. Give it another week. Once the large drop in oil prices in November 2014 fall out of the calculation, the left will soon be screaming "inflation's picking up, we're all doomed!" again.

You just can't please some people

Mr ddc"

.

Actually it's the BoE recommendation of 2% inflation that's been under hit for years!.

The deflation were seeing is actually monetary contraction mostly and that is having the knock on effect on prices

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire


"

Mr ddc.

Actually it's the BoE recommendation of 2% inflation that's been under hit for years!.

The deflation were seeing is actually monetary contraction mostly and that is having the knock on effect on prices"

Hardly years: it was around or above 2% until late 2014.

Just before the oil price dropped...

All economic commentators look at what changes have happened to the inflation figures, but they often forget the implication of previous decreases falling out of the calculations after a year. Which is why the BoE is unconcerned.

FYI, neither the UK, nor the EU are in deflation currently.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Over the past six months, the commodity market declined more than 16% (GSCI spot index in US Dollar terms). All cyclical markets are down, with the worst hit being rubber (-33%), gasoline (-33%), and steel (-24%). Furthermore, commodity markets have now declined by almost 50% since their collapse started in June 2014, making this the most dramatic slump since 2008. As far as commodities are concerned, one can see no turning point towards secular reflation. Disinflation and deflation are much more probable.

thanks to Global Asset Management for this information.

I don't think it helps to live in the past (the 70s inflation) its 40 years ago,we have to guard against a general rapid price decline.

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire


"

I don't think it helps to live in the past (the 70s inflation) its 40 years ago,we have to guard against a general rapid price decline."

Except everyone is pencilling in an interest rate hike, to prevent rising inflation, sometime this year. Since once the oil price stops falling, and worse starts to recover, we'll be in for a large inflationary shock.

(A bit like the 1970s )

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire

In fact, to quote Global Asset Management's latest report:

"we believe the downward pressures on inflation will begin to abate as resource prices have largely completed their swoon and there is the potential for modest gains in some commodities in the years ahead. We continue to believe that the much talked-about deflation threat remains limited. We can largely account for why inflation is so low today, and those pressures are inherently temporary. "

Ie "don't worry, be happy"

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

UK Inflation summary for November 2015

Release Date: December 15, 2015

Next Release Date: January 19, 2016

Current UK Inflation Rate

November 2015

0.1%

The Consumer Price Index for United Kingdom is 128.3 for the month of November 2015. The inflation rate year over year is 0.1% (compared to -0.1% for the previous month). Inflation from October 2015 to November 2015 was -0.1%.

if we go into another slump with inflation at 0.1 the in my opinion we are into deflation,(1930s ?).

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire

If.

Nuff said.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

If.

Nuff said.

its 8 years since the crash, central banks all over the world desperately tried to reflate....and after 8 years result 0.1% the underlying deleverage must be massive. everybody,banks,companys,individuals must be paying off debt...

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By *arry247Couple
over a year ago

Wakefield


"If its as cheap as 2004,great but what was the price of a litre in 2004?"

80p per litre

Of that 21p was for the oil and 59p was tax

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By *arry247Couple
over a year ago

Wakefield

Diesel was 77.1 p in 2004

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire


"

everybody,banks,companys,individuals must be paying off debt...

"

But we KNOW that isn't the case, just as the report I quoted above 'knows' that underlying inflation is actually around 1%.

Tell you what, let's wait till the December figures like I first suggested, if I'm wrong I'll apologise and defer to your better judgement, but if I'm right you have to promise to cheer up and stop talking the country down

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Oil price is lower than in 1998, the only reason the petrol price is higher is the tax take...agree with you.

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"In fact, to quote Global Asset Management's latest report:

"we believe the downward pressures on inflation will begin to abate as resource prices have largely completed their swoon and there is the potential for modest gains in some commodities in the years ahead. We continue to believe that the much talked-about deflation threat remains limited. We can largely account for why inflation is so low today, and those pressures are inherently temporary. "

Ie "don't worry, be happy"

"

.

Is that HSBC,s global asset management!

Yeah I'd take their predictions with a pinch of salt.

If they can largely account for why inflation is low and we know the BoE are desperate for it to be higher...

Then why the fuck has nobody got a clue today, which is evident by the last two days market turmoil surely.

There's something in the global gdp that's seriously lacking and they just can't put their finger on it, they've thrown everything including the kitchen sink at it and its going nowhere except down, that's either the sign of a market that has no idea what the problem is or they know what the problem is but they just have no solutions!

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By *rHornyGentMan
over a year ago

South East London


"One hand it sounds fantastic

On the other, considering the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia..

You really have to worry about what that says about the state of global trade "

You mean people won't be able to fly overseas for meets? Better book my sleazyJet tickets now

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By *rHornyGentMan
over a year ago

South East London


"Due to the easing of sanctions Iranian oil comes to the world market this year. They can extract at a cost of $1.00 per barrel.

You can bet that they will try and squeeze the Saudi regime by selling as much as they can. The Russians will not cut back supply in case they lose market share. Neither will the Saudi Regime.

What this means is that oil prices will fall much further still."

Last time I looked Iran was capable of 1m bpd. KSA 12-13 bpd. Not sure the Saudis are that bothered about Iranian production...

Now where Saudi can blame Iran for the next incident after they allegedly dropped RAF supplied bombs in the Iranian embassy in Yemen last night probably is a bigger cause for concern.

They are fighting proxy wars in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain, Iraq & Libya. Will take a whole lot more for them to go directly head to head imo.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"It says that I can afford that escalade I've been eyeing.

-Courtney.

Escalade?

That sounds like a big cream cake "

I thought it sounded like escalator! What's an escalade Courtney? All I know about cars is colours! Oh - and what colour would you get? My car -Priscilla - is green so I can spot her in a car park!

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire


"...

If they can largely account for why inflation is low and we know the BoE are desperate for it to be higher...

Then why the fuck has nobody got a clue today, which is evident by the last two days market turmoil surely....

"

Eh?

Who hasn't got a clue?

Commodity markets are down from their record highs when they were over-valued by speculators and the futures markets.

Oil is a special case, which may be political, or may be about market share. Either way it's effect on the inflation rate is coming to an end.

Global markets at times like this are more akin to bookies, with speculators currently losing out on positions previously taken when they believed China wouldn't devalue.

China isn't really devaluing, it's just refusing to keep pace with the rise of the dollar, to avoid hurting their local export markets, affecting their growth.

Growth in China may be slowing, but reduced growth, from record highs, is not the same as a recesssion, and certainly not a depression.

Global GDP has been affected by the low oil prices, but is still expected to grow.

All too often people fall for the narrative of the far left who are desperate to show Capitalism failing, when actually we're not doing too badly, thanks.

(Unless you work in the oil industry, obvs )

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"...

If they can largely account for why inflation is low and we know the BoE are desperate for it to be higher...

Then why the fuck has nobody got a clue today, which is evident by the last two days market turmoil surely....

Eh?

Who hasn't got a clue?

Commodity markets are down from their record highs when they were over-valued by speculators and the futures markets.

Oil is a special case, which may be political, or may be about market share. Either way it's effect on the inflation rate is coming to an end.

Global markets at times like this are more akin to bookies, with speculators currently losing out on positions previously taken when they believed China wouldn't devalue.

China isn't really devaluing, it's just refusing to keep pace with the rise of the dollar, to avoid hurting their local export markets, affecting their growth.

Growth in China may be slowing, but reduced growth, from record highs, is not the same as a recesssion, and certainly not a depression.

Global GDP has been affected by the low oil prices, but is still expected to grow.

All too often people fall for the narrative of the far left who are desperate to show Capitalism failing, when actually we're not doing too badly, thanks.

(Unless you work in the oil industry, obvs )"

.

That's great... However I didn't mention a depression, I just asked the question if they knew why inflation wasn't high and they want it higher... Then why can't they?

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By *erbyDalesCplCouple
over a year ago

Derbyshire


"...

That's great... However I didn't mention a depression, I just asked the question if they knew why inflation wasn't high and they want it higher... Then why can't they?"

Because they have already taken the necessary steps to raise it, but the rise has been masked by the effect of the fall in global oil prices. However this effect is about to come to an end, hence the Fed already raising interest rates, and the UK talking about following.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

There's something in the global gdp that's seriously lacking and they just can't put their finger on it"

Maybe it's that GDP is a fucking stupid measure in the first place?

You realise that it's a measure if transactions, not wealth. Analaysts cling on to it because a proper measure of living standards would reveal how much economic activity achieves precisely nothing worthwhile. The 'crash' happened because a significant proportion of our GDP was just banks swapping money between each other producing absolutely fuck all in the process, oh I'm sorry "mitigating risk". Read RBS's 2007 annual report - it's hilarious / tragic.

Oh and deflation my ass - have you tried buying / renting a house recently? (Asset bubble)

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By *abioMan
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead


"One hand it sounds fantastic

On the other, considering the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia..

You really have to worry about what that says about the state of global trade "

if iran and saudi have a real war rather than the proxy war they are having in syria, iraq and yemen at the moment.... that price will shoot back up......

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"

There's something in the global gdp that's seriously lacking and they just can't put their finger on it

Maybe it's that GDP is a fucking stupid measure in the first place?

You realise that it's a measure if transactions, not wealth. Analaysts cling on to it because a proper measure of living standards would reveal how much economic activity achieves precisely nothing worthwhile. The 'crash' happened because a significant proportion of our GDP was just banks swapping money between each other producing absolutely fuck all in the process, oh I'm sorry "mitigating risk". Read RBS's 2007 annual report - it's hilarious / tragic.

Oh and deflation my ass - have you tried buying / renting a house recently? (Asset bubble) "

.

That's why I said it's a monetary deflation.

The massive injection of capital by the world wide community has been put into asset bubbles by the very rich who've received that capital. Stocks up houses up for what reason exactly.

Commoditys down

Oil down...

This tells you what's happening to trade, when trades down stocks and housing should be down, there in a false market and that market is why the us raised interest rates, it's got nothing to do with inflation.

The effect of too big to fail has yet to emerge in my opinion

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

There's something in the global gdp that's seriously lacking and they just can't put their finger on it

Maybe it's that GDP is a fucking stupid measure in the first place?

You realise that it's a measure if transactions, not wealth. Analaysts cling on to it because a proper measure of living standards would reveal how much economic activity achieves precisely nothing worthwhile. The 'crash' happened because a significant proportion of our GDP was just banks swapping money between each other producing absolutely fuck all in the process, oh I'm sorry "mitigating risk". Read RBS's 2007 annual report - it's hilarious / tragic.

Oh and deflation my ass - have you tried buying / renting a house recently? (Asset bubble) .

That's why I said it's a monetary deflation.

The massive injection of capital by the world wide community has been put into asset bubbles by the very rich who've received that capital. Stocks up houses up for what reason exactly.

Commoditys down

Oil down...

This tells you what's happening to trade, when trades down stocks and housing should be down, there in a false market and that market is why the us raised interest rates, it's got nothing to do with inflation.

The effect of too big to fail has yet to emerge in my opinion"

Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing. The people bidding up houses prices near us are not rich. They are ordinarily people and a little bit simple when it comes to economics. They've deluded themselves that "house prices always go up" so the people with a budget for a 4 bedroom house settle for a 3 and those looking for a 3 settle on a 2, so on and so forth. The prices keep going up as a self fulfilling prophecy (with a heavy dose of political help)... until they don't.

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By *iamondjoeMan
over a year ago

Glastonbury

Bad news for wind farmers

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By *iamondjoeMan
over a year ago

Glastonbury


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing. "

Sums it up, really

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really"

.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"

There's something in the global gdp that's seriously lacking and they just can't put their finger on it

Maybe it's that GDP is a fucking stupid measure in the first place?

You realise that it's a measure if transactions, not wealth. Analaysts cling on to it because a proper measure of living standards would reveal how much economic activity achieves precisely nothing worthwhile. The 'crash' happened because a significant proportion of our GDP was just banks swapping money between each other producing absolutely fuck all in the process, oh I'm sorry "mitigating risk". Read RBS's 2007 annual report - it's hilarious / tragic.

Oh and deflation my ass - have you tried buying / renting a house recently? (Asset bubble) .

That's why I said it's a monetary deflation.

The massive injection of capital by the world wide community has been put into asset bubbles by the very rich who've received that capital. Stocks up houses up for what reason exactly.

Commoditys down

Oil down...

This tells you what's happening to trade, when trades down stocks and housing should be down, there in a false market and that market is why the us raised interest rates, it's got nothing to do with inflation.

The effect of too big to fail has yet to emerge in my opinion

Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing. The people bidding up houses prices near us are not rich. They are ordinarily people and a little bit simple when it comes to economics. They've deluded themselves that "house prices always go up" so the people with a budget for a 4 bedroom house settle for a 3 and those looking for a 3 settle on a 2, so on and so forth. The prices keep going up as a self fulfilling prophecy (with a heavy dose of political help)... until they don't. "

.

No no no no.

There just the mugs who've been released with their pensions pots!

In every pyramid scheme you need fodder..

Those at the bottom clammering for a bit of the good stuff!.

The asset bubble is pumped by the very wealthy, they don't do the dirty work, they just put things in motion

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie "

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I just can't understand why diesel still costs more than a pound

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I just can't understand why diesel still costs more than a pound "

In a word: "tax"

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I just can't understand why diesel still costs more than a pound

In a word: "tax""

Or in two words: "stealth tax"

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I wish I had sold my house(money pit)last year...now we are all going to be hit. sob

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I just can't understand why diesel still costs more than a pound

In a word: "tax""

It's not an excuse oil costs no 50% cheaper so diesel must be around 80p robbing bds

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite."

.

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"I just can't understand why diesel still costs more than a pound

In a word: "tax"

It's not an excuse oil costs no 50% cheaper so diesel must be around 80p robbing bds "

.

You think that energy is expensive but try pushing your car 45 miles and see if it costs you a fiver

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I just can't understand why diesel still costs more than a pound

In a word: "tax"

It's not an excuse oil costs no 50% cheaper so diesel must be around 80p robbing bds .

You think that energy is expensive but try pushing your car 45 miles and see if it costs you a fiver"

I can't have wooden legs

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite..

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?"

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future.

When it came to the vote oil played no part in my thinking. I'm pretty sure that Scotland, like many other countries, has more going for it that having to rely on oil for revenue. To some folk it seemed a big deal....like what will we do when there is none left? Maybe run our cars on scotch....ha ha!! We all think we're getting a 'bargain' now that fuel is soooooo cheap

Oil revenues played a part in a lot of folks thinking about separation. The notion of a 'Scottish' oil fund is now laughable."

A lot of folk had false ideas planted in their heads about separation.....blimey one side even claimed we're better together

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future. "

Indeed...."Wee 'Ecks" monetary statistics were based on oil at $100/barrel (where it was for most of the early referendum campaign). Currently down well below $40.

It is hurting the Saudis (but they have huge cash reserves and can keep it up for at least 20 years if needs be).

It is crippling Russia as the market price is below their production costs. (So no bad thing)

It means USA shale oil is not viable so it stays in the ground for future use.

It deprives ISIL/ISIS of revenue (their main source)

It means I can fill my diesel Astra up for under £1 /litre.....bring it on!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Due to the easing of sanctions Iranian oil comes to the world market this year. They can extract at a cost of $1.00 per barrel.

You can bet that they will try and squeeze the Saudi regime by selling as much as they can. The Russians will not cut back supply in case they lose market share. Neither will the Saudi Regime.

What this means is that oil prices will fall much further still."

No they can't

Iran needs $1trn of capital investment to correctly extract oil due to sanctions and underinvestment

Saudi has lowest cost to pump of $25 DPB

All OPEX countries have a habit of over producing - as much as you want to drive oil prices higher by limiting production the fact is you need the money and it's hard to actually scale back production - so your rig it should come down

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

[Removed by poster at 08/01/16 23:16:05]

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By *aucy3Couple
over a year ago

glasgow


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future.

Indeed...."Wee 'Ecks" monetary statistics were based on oil at $100/barrel (where it was for most of the early referendum campaign). Currently down well below $40.

It is hurting the Saudis (but they have huge cash reserves and can keep it up for at least 20 years if needs be).

It is crippling Russia as the market price is below their production costs. (So no bad thing)

It means USA shale oil is not viable so it stays in the ground for future use.

It deprives ISIL/ISIS of revenue (their main source)

It means I can fill my diesel Astra up for under £1 /litre.....bring it on!"

Had Scotland won independence,we would now be sitting outside tesco,

cup in hand,with a placard reading,

Nation to support,please give generously.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I just can't understand why diesel still costs more than a pound

In a word: "tax"

Or in two words: "stealth tax""

Tax has remained constant, oil price has changed

Diesel costs more to refine

Also - spare capacity in refineries is limited in Europe for diesel so it's at a premium

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By *aucy3Couple
over a year ago

glasgow


"I just can't understand why diesel still costs more than a pound

In a word: "tax"

Or in two words: "stealth tax"

Tax has remained constant, oil price has changed

Diesel costs more to refine

Also - spare capacity in refineries is limited in Europe for diesel so it's at a premium "

Less to refine.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I just can't understand why diesel still costs more than a pound

In a word: "tax"

Or in two words: "stealth tax"

Tax has remained constant, oil price has changed

Diesel costs more to refine

Also - spare capacity in refineries is limited in Europe for diesel so it's at a premium

Less to refine.

"

Some of the regulation around low sulphur has cause the price to be higher

And the spare capacity in refineries is causing the marginal cost to be higher

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future.

Indeed...."Wee 'Ecks" monetary statistics were based on oil at $100/barrel (where it was for most of the early referendum campaign). Currently down well below $40.

It is hurting the Saudis (but they have huge cash reserves and can keep it up for at least 20 years if needs be).

It is crippling Russia as the market price is below their production costs. (So no bad thing)

It means USA shale oil is not viable so it stays in the ground for future use.

It deprives ISIL/ISIS of revenue (their main source)

It means I can fill my diesel Astra up for under £1 /litre.....bring it on!

Had Scotland won independence,we would now be sitting outside tesco,

cup in hand,with a placard reading,

Nation to support,please give generously.

"

Last time I went past Tesco it was a big issue seller, someone playing an accordion and a guy sitting with his wee dug in a blanket looking for cash......luckily the vote went 'our' way

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By *aucy3Couple
over a year ago

glasgow


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future.

Indeed...."Wee 'Ecks" monetary statistics were based on oil at $100/barrel (where it was for most of the early referendum campaign). Currently down well below $40.

It is hurting the Saudis (but they have huge cash reserves and can keep it up for at least 20 years if needs be).

It is crippling Russia as the market price is below their production costs. (So no bad thing)

It means USA shale oil is not viable so it stays in the ground for future use.

It deprives ISIL/ISIS of revenue (their main source)

It means I can fill my diesel Astra up for under £1 /litre.....bring it on!

Had Scotland won independence,we would now be sitting outside tesco,

cup in hand,with a placard reading,

Nation to support,please give generously.

Last time I went past Tesco it was a big issue seller, someone playing an accordion and a guy sitting with his wee dug in a blanket looking for cash......luckily the vote went 'our' way "

Scotland was the big issue guy,and the accordion guy,we've ate the dug by now.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I'm interested to see how much further it's going to go. Middle Eastern turmoil, Iran sanctions shale oil and America allowing exports is going to make some impact as will China's continuing weak economic data.

Either way, can we bring back Concorde please?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I'm interested to see how much further it's going to go. Middle Eastern turmoil, Iran sanctions shale oil and America allowing exports is going to make some impact as will China's continuing weak economic data.

Either way, can we bring back Concorde please? "

It's gone

Replaced by the a380 on Heathrow roundabout

It's not coming back

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I'm interested to see how much further it's going to go. Middle Eastern turmoil, Iran sanctions shale oil and America allowing exports is going to make some impact as will China's continuing weak economic data.

Either way, can we bring back Concorde please?

It's gone

Replaced by the a380 on Heathrow roundabout

It's not coming back "

Fleet air museum has one, ask them it you can take it out for a spin

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"

It's gone

Replaced by the a380 on Heathrow roundabout

It's not coming back "

That's it, I'm going to Mars! Adieu money amigos!

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By *obytailsMan
over a year ago

wolverhampton

We need a stronger oil price to allow the producers to invest in the future. 1000's of jobs in the UK rely on it.

The USA is now an exporter unheard of in the near past. Hope the opec over production backfires on them and revolutions spread

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite..

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist? "

.

Champagne..

Never

Expensive red wine yes

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite..

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist? .

Champagne..

Never

Expensive red wine yes "

I guess waitrose is a good place to meet left wing chicks?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite..

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist? .

Champagne..

Never

Expensive red wine yes "

What you drink?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite..

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist? .

Champagne..

Never

Expensive red wine yes

What you drink?"

I'm a real proletariat so I like Jim Beam whiskey, but I'm also bisexual so I drink it with .

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite..

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist? .

Champagne..

Never

Expensive red wine yes

What you drink?

I'm a real proletariat so I like Jim Beam whiskey, but I'm also bisexual so I drink it with . "

Nice

Prefer Jim to jack

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite..

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist? .

Champagne..

Never

Expensive red wine yes

I guess waitrose is a good place to meet left wing chicks? "

.

That's where I've been going wrong!...

I've been after bumping into ester McVey

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By *nnyMan
over a year ago

Glasgow


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite..

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist? .

Champagne..

Never

Expensive red wine yes

I guess waitrose is a good place to meet left wing chicks? "

Yes. Especially Waitrose Byres Rd Glasgow. The heart of Glasgow Kelvin constituency, the best educated constituency in the country.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"I bet the Scots are glad they didn't get independence now. Much of the Scottish Nationalist fantasy land economics, where everything was free and plentiful, was based on income from oil revenues with a relatively high price per barrel on the markets. There would be a massive black-hole in their finances right now and for the foreseeable future. "

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"Thank goodness we're back to disagreeing.

Sums it up, really.

He loves me really. I'm like his little green commie

He's a faux lefty. Someone who wants it to be true but has read enough history to know it's shite.

He's a rational person who occasionally gets a bad stomach and shits out a bit of marx.

I'm a faux right wing capitalist pig. Someone who wants free markets to work without states but has read enough history to know it's shite..

That's just way to accurate... Are you spying on me in waitrose?

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist? .

Champagne..

Never

Expensive red wine yes

I guess waitrose is a good place to meet left wing chicks?

Yes. Especially Waitrose Byres Rd Glasgow. The heart of Glasgow Kelvin constituency, the best educated constituency in the country."

I think ive actually been there. It's near that big church / bar / whatever it is with neon lights? Nice area.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"We need a stronger oil price to allow the producers to invest in the future. 1000's of jobs in the UK rely on it.

The USA is now an exporter unheard of in the near past. Hope the opec over production backfires on them and revolutions spread "

I think that's part of our problem. We're all looking for others to invest thinking this is the answer where what really needs to be done is for us to become more resourceful, content with less, less of the replace when I'm bored...invest ourselves. The manufacturer's will only invest where their profit will return greater dividends. It's not about the good of the people or community; they will move quickly if taxes become too high and profit margins are lower than another country. Consumerism isn't about the social benefit. No system is best, the extremes of out society use and abuse, very little is given back, truely invested. We give power because we consume so much and become dependent upon a ideology which gives false long term hope. You ever wonder why so many people work so hard all year to have 2 two week holidays a year only to work again so hard to pay off the cards? What actually is gained apart from recognition of who they are in the job and enjoying something for such a shirt time only to play catch up on the cards.

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By *nnyMan
over a year ago

Glasgow


"

Waitrose - didn't have you down as a champagne socialist? .

Champagne..

Never

Expensive red wine yes

I guess waitrose is a good place to meet left wing chicks?

Yes. Especially Waitrose Byres Rd Glasgow. The heart of Glasgow Kelvin constituency, the best educated constituency in the country.

I think ive actually been there. It's near that big church / bar / whatever it is with neon lights? Nice area. "

Oran Mor. More pussy than you can shake a stick at.

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By *abioMan
over a year ago

Newcastle and Gateshead


"We need a stronger oil price to allow the producers to invest in the future. 1000's of jobs in the UK rely on it.

The USA is now an exporter unheard of in the near past. Hope the opec over production backfires on them and revolutions spread "

well oil is so cheap that its at this time worth for example fracking, or investing in renewable energy such as wind...... for example electric and hydrogen powered cars aren't worth it because of savings in petrol

down to $29.50 per barrel now.... and experts say it may get down as low as 20 dollars...... which means it would be more expensive to buy that fancy water than it would be fill up my car....

good news is that "eventually" as well as petrol and diesel prices coming down.... airline flights should "finally" start dropping.... as they buy their fuel in bulk and hedge up to about 12-18 months ahead......

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"We need a stronger oil price to allow the producers to invest in the future. 1000's of jobs in the UK rely on it.

The USA is now an exporter unheard of in the near past. Hope the opec over production backfires on them and revolutions spread

well oil is so cheap that its at this time worth for example fracking, or investing in renewable energy such as wind...... for example electric and hydrogen powered cars aren't worth it because of savings in petrol

down to $29.50 per barrel now.... and experts say it may get down as low as 20 dollars...... which means it would be more expensive to buy that fancy water than it would be fill up my car....

good news is that "eventually" as well as petrol and diesel prices coming down.... airline flights should "finally" start dropping.... as they buy their fuel in bulk and hedge up to about 12-18 months ahead......"

.

Actually I've read several analysts that think it might bottom out at nearer ten dollars a barrel.

Oil is such a cheap energy source, it's practically free.

When your in starbucks or Costa and your buying your coffee £3 for a cup full...

For £3 of diesel even with massive tax on it... You can take you and your family with luggage and a one and a half ton car 30-40-50 miles?.

Now think how many hours it would take you to push that car those miles with your family on board and how much energy you'd use?.

It's ridiculously cheap, you can extract it places for 4 dollars a barrel, it's energy density is phenomenonial, it's relatively stable and the world's run on it for a hundred years.

It's also a finite resource, made between a very small time in earth's history, it's also causing untold damage both burning it and extracting it and politicalising it.

There lies the problem, we can get off it, it's just going to cost a bunch to do it.

By the way, it's not really cheap because we're producing huge amounts more, the fact is in ten years we've only increased production by 2.5%..

The problem is global trade is falling off the cliff, this could be argued that the primary driver was oil at 120 dollars a barrel not being in the "zone" we've been used to and that now oil is back down in a few years we can expect production of trade to pick back up... Thus causing oil to dramatically increase in price and so you get the seesaw effect of trade and oil production outstripping demand.

The bell curve of oil production and new oil finds over demand always shows what's been called "the bumpy peak"... The seesaw effect basically.

Usually followed by a steady decline downwards

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"One hand it sounds fantastic

On the other, considering the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia..

You really have to worry about what that says about the state of global trade "

.

Ha, I was two weeks ahead of the stock market...

Bunch of slackers

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By *innamon!Woman
over a year ago

no matter

LOL I was just going to say shares and investments bite the dust too. Bugger !

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago


"One hand it sounds fantastic

On the other, considering the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia..

You really have to worry about what that says about the state of global trade .

Ha, I was two weeks ahead of the stock market...

Bunch of slackers "

Why not trade the market then and make money rather than posting on here?

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By (user no longer on site) OP   
over a year ago


"One hand it sounds fantastic

On the other, considering the tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia..

You really have to worry about what that says about the state of global trade .

Ha, I was two weeks ahead of the stock market...

Bunch of slackers

Why not trade the market then and make money rather than posting on here?"

.

How do you know I don't?.

I don't do free tips though, soz

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