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"On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1 On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1. I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1. " I am in agreement with this | |||
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" Ask yourselves this : How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have? The answer is 2. So the probability is surely 1. " Can you get odds of 1 ? | |||
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" Ask yourselves this : How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have? The answer is 2. So the probability is surely 1. " Ah so he was arguing the semantics of the question rather than the mathematics. Did he get detention for geating the answer wrong or being insubordinate? | |||
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"25,005,000/1 the odds are" But if the odds are 5000-1 for one pregnancy these would not multiply for second pregnancy. The odds would be exactly the same. | |||
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" Ask yourselves this : How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have? The answer is 2. So the probability is surely 1. " I truly don't understand the probability being 1 1-1 ? Evens ? | |||
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"25,005,000/1 the odds are But if the odds are 5000-1 for one pregnancy these would not multiply for second pregnancy. The odds would be exactly the same. " For each pregnancy but the odds of one couple having two sets of twins from 2 pregnancies are higher...i just don't know.how much higher lol | |||
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"Yeh but the question asks about 1 couple having 2 sets Imagine roger is short of a bob or two and goes to the bookies and puts a quid on He would get £5000 if it comes in But he is going for a double £5000 at 5000/1 is actually £25million! It's been a long day " You can say that again. So, if Federer goes to the bookies and asks to put a £1 on him having two sets of twins, they're gonna give him £25m. | |||
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"How can the likelihood of having 2 sets of twins be 1 ffs?? The odds of him having 2 sets of twins is a multiple of the odds 5x5 k = 25,000/1" That's the right odds - It's the probability of one twins AND (x) the probability of second twins = probability of two sets of twins = 1/5000 X 1/5000 = 1/25000 | |||
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"Yeh but the question asks about 1 couple having 2 sets Imagine roger is short of a bob or two and goes to the bookies and puts a quid on He would get £5000 if it comes in But he is going for a double £5000 at 5000/1 is actually £25million! It's been a long day You can say that again. So, if Federer goes to the bookies and asks to put a £1 on him having two sets of twins, they're gonna give him £25m. " No they wouldn't as he has one set of twins already so he would get £5000 | |||
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"at 5000:1 X 5000:1, (which is saying what are the chances of 2 1-in-a-5000 occurring sequentially, then it's be (5000*5000)=25000000:1 (ie: pretty darned unlikely). if the chances were for twins this time OR next time, then (5000+5000) = 10000:1. a probability of 1:1 is certainty (like biological death for example), so in that maths puzzle this is not possible.. the chances were explicity stated as being sub-unity. so, in the scope of the puzzle, afraid your son's answer of 1:1 isn't possible " Saved me typing | |||
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"How can the likelihood of having 2 sets of twins be 1 ffs?? The odds of him having 2 sets of twins is a multiple of the odds 5x5 k = 25,000/1 That's the right odds - It's the probability of one twins AND (x) the probability of second twins = probability of two sets of twins = 1/5000 X 1/5000 = 1/25000" Typo it should read 1/25,000,000 | |||
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"How can the likelihood of having 2 sets of twins be 1 ffs?? The odds of him having 2 sets of twins is a multiple of the odds 5x5 k = 25,000/1" watch out for the orders of magnitude the puzzle is 5000 lots of 5000, not 5 lots of 5000. | |||
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"at 5000:1 X 5000:1, (which is saying what are the chances of 2 1-in-a-5000 occurring sequentially, then it's be (5000*5000)=25000000:1 (ie: pretty darned unlikely). if the chances were for twins this time OR next time, then (5000+5000) = 10000:1. a probability of 1:1 is certainty (like biological death for example), so in that maths puzzle this is not possible.. the chances were explicity stated as being sub-unity. so, in the scope of the puzzle, afraid your son's answer of 1:1 isn't possible " So if a probability of 1 applies to a certainty eg Death then is it not also a certainty that Federer DOES actually have two sets of twins? A certainty? Unless the BBC News have been lying to us. | |||
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"i assume the detention wasnt for the incorrect answer but for the 'heated' discussion - " It would appear so. But if the teacher is wrong, and doesn't know their subject, then surely they're to blame. Gonna be interesting to see what the Headteacher has to say. | |||
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"at 5000:1 X 5000:1, (which is saying what are the chances of 2 1-in-a-5000 occurring sequentially, then it's be (5000*5000)=25000000:1 (ie: pretty darned unlikely). if the chances were for twins this time OR next time, then (5000+5000) = 10000:1. a probability of 1:1 is certainty (like biological death for example), so in that maths puzzle this is not possible.. the chances were explicity stated as being sub-unity. so, in the scope of the puzzle, afraid your son's answer of 1:1 isn't possible So if a probability of 1 applies to a certainty eg Death then is it not also a certainty that Federer DOES actually have two sets of twins? A certainty? Unless the BBC News have been lying to us." hehe you're right in reality, but that wasn't part of the puzzle. maybe they should have used someone else's name | |||
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" Ask yourselves this : How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have? The answer is 2. So the probability is surely 1. Can you get odds of 1 ?" Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens. | |||
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"A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins wonder what the odds of that are " If you're telling the truth, that it is factual, then surely 1:1. Ask any bookies on what odds they'd give you that "A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins". | |||
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"technically the answer would be 25 followed by 6 zero's.. 25,000,000/1... 25 million.... however... the answer could be 5000/1 as the 2nd one is in no way determined by the 1st one..." that's right, true chance never take into account any previous history (like a roulette wheel), but it is 25000000:1, as we're stating the mathematical chances of 2 slim-chance events which to occur successfully one after the other is 25 times less likely than a one in a million shot.. in fact you're more likely to win the national lottery, probably | |||
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" however... the answer could be 5000/1 as the 2nd one is in no way determined by the 1st one..." This is how I saw it. | |||
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" Ask yourselves this : How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have? The answer is 2. So the probability is surely 1. Can you get odds of 1 ? Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens." okay i see where this is going so if i said "what are my odds of winning the lottery" you could say it is evens... because it either happens..or it doesnt!! | |||
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"The odds of winning lottery are 13,000,000/1" Actually, it's 14.9 million to one. Again, it can be Googled. | |||
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"A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins wonder what the odds of that are If you're telling the truth, that it is factual, then surely 1:1. Ask any bookies on what odds they'd give you that "A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins". " yes because the bookies are taking that into account in their calculations. if you ALREADY have a set of twins, then that is a factual reality, so they are 1:1. the chances of them having another set of twins from THIS POINT onwards is 5000:1. of course, I have assumed the school quiz was purely hypothetical, and wasnt supposed to take current children into account.. | |||
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" Ask yourselves this : How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have? The answer is 2. So the probability is surely 1. Can you get odds of 1 ? Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens. " But if the probability is 1 because he already has two sets of twins. And 1 is evens. Then why can't I put my life savings on it and double my money ? | |||
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"Wouldn't the odds of a twin birth be lower the second time? As the first time could show they had the necessary genes etc to make it more probable? Or is that just me trying to complicate the issue? " hehe.. OK. in REALITY the quiz is too simplistic. a truer real life measurement would look a t familial history, and other factors to work out a specific probability.. but let's start off easy.. lol | |||
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"A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins wonder what the odds of that are If you're telling the truth, that it is factual, then surely 1:1. Ask any bookies on what odds they'd give you that "A couple in Scotland have 3 sets of twins". yes because the bookies are taking that into account in their calculations. if you ALREADY have a set of twins, then that is a factual reality, so they are 1:1. the chances of them having another set of twins from THIS POINT onwards is 5000:1. of course, I have assumed the school quiz was purely hypothetical, and wasnt supposed to take current children into account.. " It was an actual lesson and not a school quiz. The question expressly asked included "the probability of Federer" having 2 sets of twins. Not the odds/chances nor anyone else. | |||
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"The probability in the general population is 5000-1 so therefore two events should be 5000 X 5000. But in the real world some people have a genetically higher probability of twins. In statistics it is not good to extrapolate from the general to the specific. What it true for the population is not necessarily true for one person. Finally since Federer already has 2 sets of twins the answer is 1. It is a certainty that he has 2 sets of twins. If he is meaning another 2 sets of twins then this is not straightforward as he looks like he already has an increased chance of twins so the odds for him will be shorter. The odds for a population is the average of the odds of all the individuals in that population. Federer seems to have good odds. Source: I have a maths degree. " Come on let's not get silly. The question is asking that he had two sets of twins and if you know what the probability of having twins in the general population is, what is the chance he ended up with two sets. That's 1/25,000,000. And biologically too many variables are involved especially if ivf etc are involved. Source : one of us is has a physics and one is a surgeon | |||
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" Ask yourselves this : How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have? The answer is 2. So the probability is surely 1. Can you get odds of 1 ? Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens. But if the probability is 1 because he already has two sets of twins. And 1 is evens. Then why can't I put my life savings on it and double my money ? " because you can't bet on events that have already happened. | |||
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" Ask yourselves this : How many sets of twins DOES Federer actually have? The answer is 2. So the probability is surely 1. Can you get odds of 1 ? Of course, in betting terms 1/1 is called evens. But if the probability is 1 because he already has two sets of twins. And 1 is evens. Then why can't I put my life savings on it and double my money ? " Ooooh, does that work with mortgages, double my mortgage, hell yeah. | |||
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"The probability in the general population is 5000-1 so therefore two events should be 5000 X 5000. But in the real world some people have a genetically higher probability of twins. In statistics it is not good to extrapolate from the general to the specific. What it true for the population is not necessarily true for one person. Finally since Federer already has 2 sets of twins the answer is 1. It is a certainty that he has 2 sets of twins. If he is meaning another 2 sets of twins then this is not straightforward as he looks like he already has an increased chance of twins so the odds for him will be shorter. The odds for a population is the average of the odds of all the individuals in that population. Federer seems to have good odds. Source: I have a maths degree. " Thank you. Cheeky mode on : A 1:1, a 2:1 or a 2:2 I won't sink to Vordermans level lol Cheeky mode off. | |||
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" The answer cannot be 1 very simply because a probability is not expressed as a single figure. " In probability a certainty is expressed as 1. Probabilities are usually expressed as a decimal so that an evens such as a coin toss is expressed as 0.5 (1/2). Rolling a 6 is 0.1667 (1/6). So a certainty is 1/1 which is 1. The simplest way to look at it is to multiply the decimal by 100 and call it a percentage chance. I covered a lot of stats at university. Didn't help one bit at poker though. | |||
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"all very interesting but you can't have a probability of an event that has already happened." So saying a probability of 1 or evens is incorrect ? | |||
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"all very interesting but you can't have a probability of an event that has already happened. So saying a probability of 1 or evens is incorrect ?" no, but since the twins are already born you can have a probabity since its already happened. probabilies are only used for future events. eg you can have a probability that manchester city won a football match yesterday but you can have a probability for manchester city winning a game on sunday. | |||
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" Come on let's not get silly. The question is asking that he had two sets of twins and if you know what the probability of having twins in the general population is, what is the chance he ended up with two sets. That's 1/25,000,000. And biologically too many variables are involved especially if ivf etc are involved. Source : one of us is has a physics and one is a surgeon" I absolute agree but the teacher muddied the waters by adding a name of a person with 2 sets of twins already. If he had just said Joe Bloggs it would have been simple. Given the question I would have said 1 as well. | |||
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" Come on let's not get silly. The question is asking that he had two sets of twins and if you know what the probability of having twins in the general population is, what is the chance he ended up with two sets. That's 1/25,000,000. And biologically too many variables are involved especially if ivf etc are involved. Source : one of us is has a physics and one is a surgeon I absolute agree but the teacher muddied the waters by adding a name of a person with 2 sets of twins already. If he had just said Joe Bloggs it would have been simple. Given the question I would have said 1 as well." Next question, should i show the Headteacher this thread as proof? | |||
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"On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1 On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1. I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1. " By stating the name 'Roger Federer' in the question the teacher has narrowed the sample down to one person who we do know has just become a father to a second set of twins so it is 100% certain 1:1 probability. As to whether your son deserves detention, it depends on how he put his point accross. Let's be honest was it REALLY just because he disagreed with the staff answer? | |||
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" Come on let's not get silly. The question is asking that he had two sets of twins and if you know what the probability of having twins in the general population is, what is the chance he ended up with two sets. That's 1/25,000,000. And biologically too many variables are involved especially if ivf etc are involved. Source : one of us is has a physics and one is a surgeon I absolute agree but the teacher muddied the waters by adding a name of a person with 2 sets of twins already. If he had just said Joe Bloggs it would have been simple. Given the question I would have said 1 as well. Next question, should i show the Headteacher this thread as proof?" Lol Jokes aside, regardless of who it is, the chances the ended up with that outcome are the same. | |||
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"On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1 On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1. I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1. By stating the name 'Roger Federer' in the question the teacher has narrowed the sample down to one person who we do know has just become a father to a second set of twins so it is 100% certain 1:1 probability. As to whether your son deserves detention, it depends on how he put his point accross. Let's be honest was it REALLY just because he disagreed with the staff answer? " Must make this Absolutely clear 100% certain does not equate 1:1 probability A flip of a coin is 1:1 that it will land heads One is wrong . The kid was wrong x | |||
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"On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1 On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1. I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1. By stating the name 'Roger Federer' in the question the teacher has narrowed the sample down to one person who we do know has just become a father to a second set of twins so it is 100% certain 1:1 probability. As to whether your son deserves detention, it depends on how he put his point accross. Let's be honest was it REALLY just because he disagreed with the staff answer? Must make this Absolutely clear 100% certain does not equate 1:1 probability A flip of a coin is 1:1 that it will land heads One is wrong . The kid was wrong x" Flipping a coin is a 2 to 1 chance, ie 0.5 | |||
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" Thanks everyone. I'm going with 00Marc and Travall on this. I also reckon the probability of serving this detention is 0, zero. Now, what are the odds on that coming to fruition?" go in and argue his case. Take it to the head of maths | |||
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"On the first pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1 On the second pregnancy the odds would be 5000-1. I'm sorry but I don't understand your sons answer of 1. By stating the name 'Roger Federer' in the question the teacher has narrowed the sample down to one person who we do know has just become a father to a second set of twins so it is 100% certain 1:1 probability. As to whether your son deserves detention, it depends on how he put his point accross. Let's be honest was it REALLY just because he disagreed with the staff answer? Must make this Absolutely clear 100% certain does not equate 1:1 probability A flip of a coin is 1:1 that it will land heads One is wrong . The kid was wrong x Flipping a coin is a 2 to 1 chance, ie 0.5" Apologies to all I'm wrong | |||
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"Just tell the teacher hes a wanker and give him a right hander. Whats the odds on that ?" Judging by the word he used to describe part of the teachers anatomy, i'd say that he's actually a she teacher. | |||
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"Just tell the teacher hes a wanker and give him a right hander. Whats the odds on that ? Judging by the word he used to describe part of the teachers anatomy, i'd say that he's actually a she teacher." What word did he use to describe the teacher's anatomy ? | |||
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"Just tell the teacher hes a wanker and give him a right hander. Whats the odds on that ? Judging by the word he used to describe part of the teachers anatomy, i'd say that he's actually a she teacher. What word did he use to describe the teacher's anatomy ?" The bloke that taught us maths was a c*nt. If that helps... Canis, your lad was mathematically correct... The odds of a certainty are 1:1... The probability is 1... However, what are the odds that your lad got his detention for being Lippy... And what is the probability that his detention will be overruled...??? | |||
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"My mum had 2 sets of twins. I'm feeling like one in 25 million at the moment " think this makes you extra special xx | |||
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"My mum had 2 sets of twins. I'm feeling like one in 25 million at the moment think this makes you extra special xx" Just remember... If you are One in a Million, there are over 7000 of you on the planet... | |||
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