"It's only sustainable for so long tho - Russia has already pretty much lost a generation of men - as a colleague of mine quipped - they'll be lots of available women over there in the next few years....
The yanks weapons will start arriving in massive numbers soon, there's a feeling that the tide will turn shortly...
Just worried what Putin could do if he ends up with his back against wall."
Short term sustainabile, although Russia has always been good at covering up the cracks, until things unexpectedly just break. Sadly they can can carry on for sometime and then when they can't they can provide a force to hold land, especially with Ukraine struggling to build up the elements for a successful breaking of the lines.
However long term, looking beyond this war Putin has wrecked Russia. It had a per war demographic problem. Now it has seen so much men or working age gone. Hence why we see high wages in Russia and high demand in the job market. Mixed with half a million odd Russian's workers and highly skilled individuals who escaped and probably won't return. Then factor in according to Russia official data the massive spike in working age men classed as disabled and claiming disabled benifit (which we obviously know the reason for this spike even though the Kremlin won't officially link the reason). Then factor in the war economy. So many Russian factory making war materials. Now their products are not funded by consumers, business or created wealth. They are funded directly from the States depleting purse. Worse still this State spending is not being spend on infrastructure or projects to boost the economy or make the lives of Russian's better. Its being spent on replacing war loses which will eventually also go up in smoke. And its really not clear if Russia could recover trade lost anytime soon post war.
Whatever the eventual outcome Putin can not conquer Ukraine, that clear after 2 years. Yet he continues this huge act of self abuse for very little tangible gain (especially vs loss). Putin is a terrible gambler and doesn't know when to through his cards in. This war won't be over tomorrow and the exact outcome is unclear. But the longer the war goes on the slowly (and I mean slowly) untenable his situation becomes. Yet ironically at the same time he may need a constant state of forever war to stay in power because I'm not sure he could survive stopping the war without a victory he could sell to his people. Especially after the price becomes more apparent. So Putin has kept his hand in a duff game so long he's put himself into an unwinnable catch 22. But I am talking in the long run not tomorrow. Things tend to snap out of no where in Russia, so when it happens it'll just happen. Although key signs when Russia feels weak a mixture pushed at the same time of nuclear threats, peace talks, uptick in violence against civil targets and an uptick in social media opps. I would suggest what's going on now indicates behind scenes the Kremlin is feeling the pressure.
Back the meat attacks they will continue and can continue for the foreseeable future. But I don't see this war being won exactly on the battlefield via a break through by either side. I don't see Ukrainian giving in and I see the West becoming more inclined to give enough to keep Ukraine going. What Ukraine is being supported with is a tiny fraction of combined Western Wealth. However Russia with an economy the size of Italy is spending flat out on the war and eating away the war chest it had saved up. So I actually see that with the backing Ukraine gets it actually can simply outlast Russia until Putin becomes untenable and the whole thing collapses and/or the war and defending crimea simply is a cost too much. Although it's hard to say if soon or years a way I suspect that the internal problems mounting up in Russia are far worse than what is perceived.
I wouldn't worry about Putin's back against the wall. All indicatons of nuclear bluff are it's bluff. And these things are whatched closely. There is no evidence of this ever changing or being allowed (remember there are others in the chain). And China has made their position clear on this. But what we do know is the danger of Putin's aggression being unchecked and that if unchecked that leads to a highly more risky nuclear risk. Because Puitn only moves into the space he's afforded. So the greater risk is to give into nuclear black-mail rather than to continue to show resolve. A realisation that has sadly taken so many Western leaders a long time to get their heads around, but more have and are doing so.
Russia can only lose, that's clear although the exact details and extent is still unclear. Sadly many many more will die in the mean time due to Putin's arrogance or possibly real failure to accept the situation and future outcome. What saddens me is this war could have been avoided. Putin only moves in the spaces he sees afforded to him. Like Hilters early campaigns he's been testing the waters in Georgia, in Crimea, in Syria, in the hybrid battle space. We have done little and just concentrate on a comfortable life enjoying the peace dividend rather that addressing the threat. We have been like ostriches with our heads in the sand, I fear by choice of ignorant bliss rather than mistake. This has given Putin the natural calculus that we don't have the resolve to deal with a bigger aggression. Our failure has cost us more in the long run, result in 100,000s of deaths and brought us closer to nuclear war. We failed to learn that the appeasement of aggression only leads down a darker more deadly path. |
