FabSwingers.com forum: Second wave of covid

By *andydevine OP Man
over a year ago

sligo

Any scientists here. I'm worried there is gonna be a much bigger second wave of the virus. Am I been a pessimist or is there truth to this theory. I think it's still to early to be lifting restrictions.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Any scientists here. I'm worried there is gonna be a much bigger second wave of the virus. Am I been a pessimist or is there truth to this theory. I think it's still to early to be lifting restrictions."

Happy thoughts man .... happy fucking thoughts.

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By *sLittleRedRidingHoodWoman
over a year ago

Magical Forrest

Oh fuck me pink ...

Just when I was ready to come out of my cave ...

Better go stock up on food and toilet paper ... again....

Great to see interesting swinging related topics ...

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I heard they said the virus was here back in December, and it's possible this now to be d second wave. Which I really hope so, its time we try and go back to some normality, whatever that may be.

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By *iquidRavenMan
over a year ago

Dublin

I watched a great interview with a virologist called Dr Mike Katz on the Rich Roll Podcast

He did a piece in the NY Times and his take going off all the up to date data is that the virus is no where near as deadly as first thought

Main points were up to 80% of the population (USA at least) could be resistant to virus

That the numbers ill or worst case die are far lower % of total cases as a massive amount will have it and show no symptoms etc

Going forward he believes that lockdowns have to be lifted and a more strategic approach is needed to shield those vulnerable

It was a fascinating interview but it struck a chord as even with the overall positive way the nation has dealt with covid if it was as deadly or virulent surely more people should have had it?

Even with the precautions

I don't know anyone outside of nursing home setting that has caught the virus

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By *hors.HammerMan
over a year ago

Newbridge

Well due to lots of people throwing partys and out hanging our we'll soon see if the second wave hits soon.

I'll be over here with my hazchem suit

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

It's inevitable, we just have to get used to living with it around us and get on with life, and we will.

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By *andydevine OP Man
over a year ago

sligo

Just wondering do will it lead to a second bout of lock down.

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By *iquidRavenMan
over a year ago

Dublin

Also we've now flattened the curve but there has to be a strategy after this else we just stay here indefinitely

People keep talking about a vaccine that best case scenario will be 18 months,

If there is a snag or hiccup we could be talking 3 - 5 years!!

Then you have to roll it out worldwide...

And that's if they can even produce a vaccine as from what my non qualified head has been hearing there has never been a successful vaccine for this type of virus before

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"I watched a great interview with a virologist called Dr Mike Katz on the Rich Roll Podcast

He did a piece in the NY Times and his take going off all the up to date data is that the virus is no where near as deadly as first thought

Main points were up to 80% of the population (USA at least) could be resistant to virus

That the numbers ill or worst case die are far lower % of total cases as a massive amount will have it and show no symptoms etc

Going forward he believes that lockdowns have to be lifted and a more strategic approach is needed to shield those vulnerable

It was a fascinating interview but it struck a chord as even with the overall positive way the nation has dealt with covid if it was as deadly or virulent surely more people should have had it?

Even with the precautions

I don't know anyone outside of nursing home setting that has caught the virus

What was his take on the mass graves in new York ?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Well I'm hoping if/when a second wave hits, we will already be prepared and have the benefit of hind sight.

People are being tested so we will detect the increase in numbers immediately. People have adjusted to social distancing in public places, any company that can has already introduced work from home policies and social distancing practices.

The first wave was allowed to multiply while we were largely unaware of it and it spread undetected. I'd be very surprised if we let it get anywhere near as bad a second time.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Also we've now flattened the curve but there has to be a strategy after this else we just stay here indefinitely

People keep talking about a vaccine that best case scenario will be 18 months,

If there is a snag or hiccup we could be talking 3 - 5 years!!

Then you have to roll it out worldwide...

And that's if they can even produce a vaccine as from what my non qualified head has been hearing there has never been a successful vaccine for this type of virus before"

That's true, sars broke out 18 years ago and no successful vaccine and the common cold for which there's no cure is corona virus. We just need to strengthen our own immunity as best we can

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Those Vulnerable should be put into heavy Lockdown. Those with no conditions should also take precautions but not all should be held to account. One Virologist said the Obesity Epidemic in USA was a contributing factor to the deaths also.

So many different takes though, all with substance. Can be hard to be certain.

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By *iquidRavenMan
over a year ago

Dublin

Possibly but hopefully one that is more focused at those at risk and somehow shielding them from non risk people in there immediate/social/work circle

The economic hit from this is going to be a massive, the powers can't keep locking down on the scale we've seen

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By *iquidRavenMan
over a year ago

Dublin

"I watched a great interview with a virologist called Dr Mike Katz on the Rich Roll Podcast

He did a piece in the NY Times and his take going off all the up to date data is that the virus is no where near as deadly as first thought

Main points were up to 80% of the population (USA at least) could be resistant to virus

That the numbers ill or worst case die are far lower % of total cases as a massive amount will have it and show no symptoms etc

Going forward he believes that lockdowns have to be lifted and a more strategic approach is needed to shield those vulnerable

It was a fascinating interview but it struck a chord as even with the overall positive way the nation has dealt with covid if it was as deadly or virulent surely more people should have had it?

Even with the precautions

I don't know anyone outside of nursing home setting that has caught the virus

What was his take on the mass graves in new York ? "

Basically that the numbers at the mo are akin to seasonal flu which in a bad year recently in the US killed 60,000 I think? If I'm remembering correctly..

He's actually been working at a hospital in the Bronx during this crisis after having not worked in hospitals in a few years

This dude is the real deal though

The basic takeaway is that out of 100 people 99% of people will be fine then a small percentage of that 1% percent could get very sick and die

Again he reckons going off all up to date pooled data that 80% of a population just may not get it even if exposes and the vast majority or those that do won't show symptoms

Although 1000's have died in Italy and loads in New York it's still a tiny amount... obviously its still tragic

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"I watched a great interview with a virologist called Dr Mike Katz on the Rich Roll Podcast

He did a piece in the NY Times and his take going off all the up to date data is that the virus is no where near as deadly as first thought

Main points were up to 80% of the population (USA at least) could be resistant to virus

That the numbers ill or worst case die are far lower % of total cases as a massive amount will have it and show no symptoms etc

Going forward he believes that lockdowns have to be lifted and a more strategic approach is needed to shield those vulnerable

It was a fascinating interview but it struck a chord as even with the overall positive way the nation has dealt with covid if it was as deadly or virulent surely more people should have had it?

Even with the precautions

I don't know anyone outside of nursing home setting that has caught the virus

What was his take on the mass graves in new York ?

Basically that the numbers at the mo are akin to seasonal flu which in a bad year recently in the US killed 60,000 I think? If I'm remembering correctly..

He's actually been working at a hospital in the Bronx during this crisis after having not worked in hospitals in a few years

This dude is the real deal though

The basic takeaway is that out of 100 people 99% of people will be fine then a small percentage of that 1% percent could get very sick and die

Again he reckons going off all up to date pooled data that 80% of a population just may not get it even if exposes and the vast majority or those that do won't show symptoms

Although 1000's have died in Italy and loads in New York it's still a tiny amount... obviously its still tragic "

Any death is tragic and more so that people can't grieve or have funerals. The mental health of all involved is going to be a major factor in years to come too

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By *iquidRavenMan
over a year ago

Dublin

"I watched a great interview with a virologist called Dr Mike Katz on the Rich Roll Podcast

He did a piece in the NY Times and his take going off all the up to date data is that the virus is no where near as deadly as first thought

Main points were up to 80% of the population (USA at least) could be resistant to virus

That the numbers ill or worst case die are far lower % of total cases as a massive amount will have it and show no symptoms etc

Going forward he believes that lockdowns have to be lifted and a more strategic approach is needed to shield those vulnerable

It was a fascinating interview but it struck a chord as even with the overall positive way the nation has dealt with covid if it was as deadly or virulent surely more people should have had it?

Even with the precautions

I don't know anyone outside of nursing home setting that has caught the virus

What was his take on the mass graves in new York ?

Basically that the numbers at the mo are akin to seasonal flu which in a bad year recently in the US killed 60,000 I think? If I'm remembering correctly..

He's actually been working at a hospital in the Bronx during this crisis after having not worked in hospitals in a few years

This dude is the real deal though

The basic takeaway is that out of 100 people 99% of people will be fine then a small percentage of that 1% percent could get very sick and die

Again he reckons going off all up to date pooled data that 80% of a population just may not get it even if exposes and the vast majority or those that do won't show symptoms

Although 1000's have died in Italy and loads in New York it's still a tiny amount... obviously its still tragic

Any death is tragic and more so that people can't grieve or have funerals. The mental health of all involved is going to be a major factor in years to come too "

100%, someone close to me has died , most likely from Covid.. the person was already seriously ill though and that's the kicker

If we put society on hold for much longer and crash the economy further for what may only kill the already seriously Ill or those with specific health problems we could do more damage and kill more people in the long term through suicide, poverty, hopelessness and so on

I'd love to see the stats on those that died in Italy

Average age, health before covid and so on

It's not to devalue or say fuck it about these people but we may need a much more nuanced and targeted approach sooner rather than later because this can't go on indefinitely

I'm keeping my toddler away from other kids, people when out like we're all potential zombies

Will that have a long term effect if this was to go on another couple of years??

I don't know but I can imagine it will and not a good one

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

For anyone who's genuinely interested in whether weight matters...

The studies that suggest that obesity is a risk factor are fundamentally flawed. The proportion of covid patients in the obese category is actually pretty much the exact same as the proportion of the population in the obese category. Which means that the number is so high because the numbers of obese people in society are high, not because they get the virus more easily. Unfortunately lazy research and even lazier media means that once inaccurate studies like this are published, they spread like wildfire, doctors and medical experts throw their weight (pun intended) behind them (because blaming obesity and singling out fat people as stupid, irresponsible and a drain on the health system is an easy win for the pr machine) and society accepts it as fact.

If you're interested there's more detail here:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wired.com/story/covid-19-does-not-discriminate-by-body-weight/amp

Or you can check the "Covid BMI" highlight of Dr. Joshua Wolrich here:

https://instagram.com/drjoshuawolrich?igshid=1gaezcgapdvar

Or you can read this INARC study which states very clearly that there's no evidence to suggest that high BMI increases ICU admission in covid-19:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/b5f59585-5870-ea11-9124-00505601089b&ved=2ahUKEwiezOOVg7LpAhUdRhUIHSgrCmoQFnoECAYQAA&usg=AOvVaw0IazA6qAWBSyz4shyKLYj7

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By *eepimpactMan
over a year ago

Dublin

I see some tin foil hats are here!!This is nothing like sars or the common cold.The common cold is incurable due to how much it mutates every year.Yes we most likely had a strain of Covid here in December as i myself was floored for a week before i could even get out of the bed.Also a handful of my friends and others i know had the same symptoms.Life will not go back to normal until the vaccine is produced,which i believe there are 8 possible companies that are close to it.I for one will defo be getting this vaccine when it is available.The anti vacs and tin foil gates heads will sing and dance that it causes all kinds of cancers and what not!!

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By *hors.HammerMan
over a year ago

Newbridge

"Those Vulnerable should be put into heavy Lockdown. "

That's me I'm high risk. been on lockdown since early march.

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By *iquidRavenMan
over a year ago

Dublin

"I see some tin foil hats are here!!This is nothing like sars or the common cold.The common cold is incurable due to how much it mutates every year.Yes we most likely had a strain of Covid here in December as i myself was floored for a week before i could even get out of the bed.Also a handful of my friends and others i know had the same symptoms.Life will not go back to normal until the vaccine is produced,which i believe there are 8 possible companies that are close to it.I for one will defo be getting this vaccine when it is available.The anti vacs and tin foil gates heads will sing and dance that it causes all kinds of cancers and what not!!"

Who are wearing the tin foil hats in this thread?

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Also worth noting that new vaccines are actually risky.

I was preggars during the swine flu in 2009 and my mum nearly disowned me for refusing to get the vaccine. Turns out that thousands of babies whose mothers had gotten the vaccine developed severe narcolepsy. There's lots about it online if anyone wants to look it up.

My daughters had all of the normal childhood vaccines. But something that's thrown together in a panic and barely tested before it's rolled out is very different.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

I too procrastinate at night ... but for fuck sake .... happy thoughts people!

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Real care needs to be taken when looking for info on the virus. At this stage there isnt enough info to determine if the population has developed immunity. We are being lucky in that we are coming into the summer months which the coronavirus hates so there will be a natural drop. All of the medical microbiologist options are that there will be a second wave with the flu season starting about October time. They are planning on that at this stage.

At this point there is no treatment. Our only hope until treatment is a vaccine, that is the reality.

Alot of the lockdown is mainly to try and ensure the health system is not overwhelmed. If the health system collapses then everyone is affected in that all services will stop or be seriously reduced.

The effects on the human body is very strange, it appears to causing real problems that are very difficult to predict. Some of the test that are indicators of the severity of the disease on a patient are troubling and are only just now coming to the fore.

All I can say to anyone that wants to listen is that please please please stay safe and follow social distancing

Stay safe xx

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"Real care needs to be taken when looking for info on the virus. At this stage there isnt enough info to determine if the population has developed immunity. We are being lucky in that we are coming into the summer months which the coronavirus hates so there will be a natural drop. All of the medical microbiologist options are that there will be a second wave with the flu season starting about October time. They are planning on that at this stage.

At this point there is no treatment. Our only hope until treatment is a vaccine, that is the reality.

Alot of the lockdown is mainly to try and ensure the health system is not overwhelmed. If the health system collapses then everyone is affected in that all services will stop or be seriously reduced.

All I can say to anyone that wants to listen is that please please please stay safe and follow social distancing

Stay safe xx"

Regarding the summer months or warmer weather bit id have clung to that hope too bar the fact that it was and still is rampent in Brazil, Spain, India and other countries with warm climates. This isnt just going to vanish in the heat.U cant compare it too the flu either. Bad season of the flu in ireland is 500 deaths. The states 60,000. And that is without all the measures that are being taken at the moment. Also think there are alot more deaths connected to this too. We are one of the ONLY countries counting nursing and care home deaths. Which is like 60% of our deaths here sadly. And if anybody believes Chinas numbers. In a country of nearly 2 billion. That it got to Peru and New Zealand but they kept it out of Bejing and Shanghai!!! When u see whats happening in Germany and South Korea once they eased rescritions. Not sure if it will be 2nd wave or one long drawn out first wave with a few lockdowns

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By *unnyfookMan
over a year ago

Naas

it's that reason we will be wearing masks, they will assume we all have it

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By *hoenix-risingMan
over a year ago

Co.Down

There's easily 200 Scientists here ,who knew until Covid appeared.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

There's easily 200 Scientists here ,who knew until Covid appeared."

Hahahahahahahahahaha yes son!!!!

Fucking experts coming out of the walls

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By *man79Man
over a year ago

newry dundalk. warrenpoint

There is no virus never mind a second wave

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By *iquidRavenMan
over a year ago

Dublin

https://youtu.be/Ztlu_F6nT4g

This is the interview from someone who is qualified to talk

I'm only qualified to give a butchered regurgitation...

I make good toast though.. PHD level

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By *andydevine OP Man
over a year ago

sligo

Il have a look now.

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By *eddy and legsCouple
over a year ago

the wetlands

IMHO if we use common sense we will survive

God help us then

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By *exydoctorsCouple
over a year ago

Galway/Clare

I know someone who was 32, a bit overweight and died from it. Was counted as "underlying health issues" because he was obese, but if he was obese, so is half the population.

People who say it's like the flu need to cop on, it's got the same amount/more deaths as the flu but nothing like the same penetration into the population yet.... And it has only been around for months, some of which we have all spent at home. From full testing in localised areas in Spain and Germany the amount that have had it is likely at 5-10%.

As someone said, vaccinations developed in a hurry can be iffy... You never know the long term effects until later... but if I was 70+ I'd take it. It seems to get less press but obviously an anti viral that works as a treatment for those that are ill would be handy too!

It's become such a big deal that there's huge legal questions now. If you go back to work and catch it and die, is there any legal liability? So ultimately I think people are going to be cautious for quite some time until the full information about fatality rates and underlying conditions becomes more clear.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Yes the virus was in Ireland in December. There is a chance of a second wave unless we still keep up the good habits we have got used to over the last while

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By *j47Man
over a year ago

limerick

Surely every individual has to do a risk assessment them selves if i go to work and get it is it not the same as going to work and getting a cold.

How can the employer be held responsible unless there is blatant abuse of the guidelines.

Just asking or playing devils advocate

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By *iquidRavenMan
over a year ago

Dublin

"I know someone who was 32, a bit overweight and died from it. Was counted as "underlying health issues" because he was obese, but if he was obese, so is half the population.

That's awful for that guy and I know someone who died in his 40s from flu complications a few years back, no previous issues either

But to play devil's advocate an estimated 4 million people in New York state have been estimated with catching the virus so far (vast majority probably didn't even know) there has been 27000 deaths

That's a less than 1% death rate and the vast majority of these deaths were older people with preexisting health complications or to a much less prevalent degree people under 60 with serious health issues

Again this isn't to say fuck these people let's get on with it but surely a more targeted approach to cocoon the at risk groups rather than an ongoing blanket lockdown is the way to go

We could be heading for a worldwide depression which should be great craic

Again again this isn't me with my scientist hat on this is coming from virus experts and data analysists crunching the most up to date pooled data from around the world

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By *exydoctorsCouple
over a year ago

Galway/Clare

When we have all the data I imagine the average fatality will be under 1% as you suggest. But that's potentially a lot more people yet to die...1,500 have died here so far, 1% of the population is just under 50,000.

I'd love to see the raw data containing the breakdown of the numbers, what pre existing conditions, how many were nursing homes etc. It's hard to make convincing arguments either way without that clarity

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By *rmrs1234Couple
over a year ago

Waterford

"When we have all the data I imagine the average fatality will be under 1% as you suggest. But that's potentially a lot more people yet to die...1,500 have died here so far, 1% of the population is just under 50,000.

well if the figures they gave today are to be believed just under 1000 of the people who have passsed were in nursing homes

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By *oghunter33Woman
over a year ago

on the hill NordWest of

To assume that 100% of the population get it is very very unlikely. So your 50'000 is too high. If 80% of the population get it we've reached herd immunisation, with 1% mortality rate that's a 40'000. It's suspected that the infection rate is 10 to 20 times higher than confirmed cases. Going with 10 times more, that's a 250'000 cases over the last 3 month here in Ireland, which would suggest that with 1500 the mortality rate is most likely below 1%.

Also it would take years to get to the herd immunisation level, you need at least 16waves to come close to that....

Finally we've yet to see and compare death figures of former years with this year's, only then we know if there's an increase in annual death caused by covid-19.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

Also it would take years to get to the herd immunisation level, you need at least 16waves to come close to that....

Finally we've yet to see and compare death figures of former years with this year's, only then we know if there's an increase in annual death caused by covid-19. "

All comparisons with past years death rates are a little meaningless due to the restrictions that have been put in place chances are deaths will be the same or a little higher/lower.

Less workplace deaths and road deaths etc....

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By *elfastDMan
over a year ago

belfast

Just for comparison, the average deaths from flu in the uk is around 17,000 per annum, on a bad year that went up to around 28,000. The uk is over this value on deaths from Covid-19 even with the lockdown measures that have been in place. This virus is therefore absolutely more deadly than “normal” flu.

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By *ichael McCarthyMan
over a year ago

Lucan

The whole herd immunity concept relies on people who have had it becoming and remaining immune but that's not provable yet at all as far as I'm aware.

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By (user no longer on site)
over a year ago

"The whole herd immunity concept relies on people who have had it becoming and remaining immune but that's not provable yet at all as far as I'm aware. "

I think the longest recored immunity in similar covid viruses such as Sars and MERS is 2 to 3 years as you said though too early for this strain

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